The Fantasy Football Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 5: Cleveland, NY Jets, Oakland, and St. Louis.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Derek Anderson, Brett Favre

Running Backs

Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Stephen Jackson

Wide Receivers

Braylon Edwards, Laveranues Coles, Jericho Cotchery, Torry Holt

Tight Ends

Kellen Winslow

Kickers

Josh Brown
Defenses

None

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton (LT), Chad Pennington (ST), Gus Frerotte - assuming he’s healthy enough to play (ST), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC)

Running Backs

Correll Buckhalter (ST),  Mewelde Moore (ST), Najeh Davenport - just signed by Pittsburgh (ST), Cedric Benson - just signed by Cincinnati (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Kevin Walter (LT), Devery Henderson (ST), Lance Moore (ST), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Ted Ginn (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (LT), Visanthe Shiancoe (ST), Alex Smith (ST), Robert Royal (ST)

Kickers

Rian Lindell (LT), Shaun Suisham (LT), Ryan Longwell (ST), Matt Bryant (ST)

Defenses

Seattle (LT), Atlanta (ST), Washington (ST), Denver (ST)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 4’s games:

Denver at Kansas City - The Broncos high-octane passing attack figures to keep on rolling this weekend - the big question is whether the Chiefs will be able to muster any semblance of an offense against a Denver defense that has given up lots of points the last couple of weeks to San Diego and New Orleans at home.  For the Broncos start QB Jay Cutler, RB Selvin Young, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal (in spite of the latter’s calf injury), and Kicker Matt Prater; then wait for the big numbers to roll in.  Damon Huard will start at QB for the Chiefs, but I’d avoid him even against Denver’s defense unless I were really desperate for a bye week replacement.  RB Larry Johnson should be started in spite of his recently expressed dissatisfaction with his role in the Chiefs’ offense - it’s put up or shut up time for him this weekend - Jamaal Charles is waiting in the wings.  TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe should also be started, but I’d stay away from K Nick Novak.  Both Defenses should be avoided, especially Kansas City’s.

Minnesota at Tennessee - Two struggling offenses face off against two strong defenses - something’s got to give. With RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor both Questionable for Sunday’s game, the Vikings may be forced to rely on Gus Frerotte’s arm to win the game.  If Peterson plays, he’s worth starting, even with his hamstring problem.  Hopefully, Frerotte is not your #1 QB, but he should be an adequate bye week replacement if you need him to fill that role.  TE Visanthe Shiancoe and WR Bernard Berrian figure to see a number of Frerotte’s passes and are both worth starting, as is Kicker Ryan Longwell.  I don’t have as much confidence against Titans’ QB Kerry Collins against the Vikings’ defense, and I wouldn’t start him unless absolutely necessary.  Ditto for RBs LenDale White (Questionable with a shoulder injury) and Chris Johnson, who isn’t injured but still figures to have a tough time against the Minnesota defense.  I’d also stay away from the Titans’ receivers and Kicker Rob Bironas.  Both Defenses are worth starting, especially Minnesota’s.

Cleveland at Cincinnati - Good news for fantasy team owners - both teams offenses should wake up this weekend, even if the final score isn’t quite the 51-45 shootout from Week 2 of the 2007 season.  For Cleveland QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and Kicker Phil Dawson should all be starting.  WR Braylon Edwards is listed as Questionable with a shoulder injury, but it’s hard to imagine him sitting out this game, and he should be started if he plays.  For the Bengals QB Carson Palmer is listed as Questionable with an ankle injury, but like Edwards, it’s hard for me to imagine he would miss this game unless the team doctors chained him to the training table.  If he starts for the Bengals, Palmer should be started in all fantasy leagues.  RB Chris Perry, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco, and Kicker Shayne Graham should all be started, and if you’re desperate for a bye week TE replacement, Reggie Kelly can also be started (funny, no one calls him “R. Kelly” - wonder why).  At the risk of stating the superobvious, do NOT start either Defense unless you want to be the laughingstock of your league Monday morning.

San Francisco at New Orleans - Another game where both Defenses figure to be MIA, so keep both out of your fantasy lineups this week (and most other weeks too).  This week is last call for 49ers’ QB J.T. O’Sullivan - he’s worth starting this week, but look to sell high on him, if possible, after this week - San Francisco’s schedule gets significantly more difficult starting in Week 5.  The Bush-Gore RB showdown figures to get most of the attention in this game from the announcers/commentators desperate to display a sense of “humor” - more importantly, both figure to rack up big fantasy stats and should be in your lineups this week.  Other 49ers worth starting include TE Vernon Davis, WR Isaac Bruce, K Joe Nedney, and, if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement, WR Bryant Johnson (listed as Questionable with a hamstring injury - check his status Sunday before gametime).  Besides Bush, other Saints worth starting include QB Drew Brees; RB Pierre Thomas (who seems to have usurped Deuce McAllister’s role); WRs Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem; and Kicker Martin Gramatica.

Arizona at NY Jets - This game may not be quite the offensive shootout that other games figure to be this week, but I’d still avoid both Defenses.  Cardinals’ QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, and Kicker Neil Rackers should all be started.  I’d avoid Jets’ QB Brett Favre if at all possible - I don’t expect him to miss the game and break his consecutive games streak, but coming off a short week and playing on a bum ankle that figures to limit his mobility even more than usual, I’d pass.  RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller (who appears to be the Jets’ best TE fantasy option, even if he’s not starting yet), WRs Laveranues Coles & Jericho Cotchery, and Kicker Jay Feely are all worth starting.

Atlanta at Carolina - This is another week where I’ll say that Falcons’ rookie QB Matt Ryan has great fantasy potential, but don’t bet on his demonstrating it this weekend against the Panthers’ Defense (i.e. - don’t start him).  RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood should both be starting this weekend, but expect their results to look more like what they were against Tampa Bay than what they were against Detroit and Kansas City.  WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins, and Kicker Jason Elam should be avoided unless you’re desperate for bye week replacements.  For the Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, TE Jeff King, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and Kicker John Kasay should all be started.  However, I’d stay away from both Panther RBs (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) for different reasons (ineffectiveness and possible injury, respectively).  Avoid the Falcons’ Defense, but the Panthers’ Defense is worth starting.

Houston at Jacksonville - This game hinges on whether Texans’ rookie RB Steve Slaton is able to duplicate his results from last week’s game against Tennessee.  My bet is that he will, so I would start him and expect him to do well.  QB Matt Schaub has been ineffective in the Texans’ first two games, but if you need a bye week replacement, he’s worth starting.  TE Owen Daniels, WR Andre Johnson, and Kicker Kris Brown are also worth starting.  Jaguars’ RBs Fred Taylor (hand) and Maurice Jones-Drew (ankle) are both listed as Questionable, so check on their status again before Sunday.  If either of them is in the Jaguars’ starting lineup, they’re worth having in your starting lineup too.  QB David Garrard and TE Marcedes Lewis are also worth starting, as is Kicker Josh Scobee.  WR Matt Jones makes a decent starter if you need a bye week replacement.  I’d start either Defense on the assumption that both will force several turnovers.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay - I expect the Packers’ offense to bounce back from a disappointing performance against Dallas.  RB Ryan Grant appears to be healthy, and he should be started.  QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby are all worth starting too.  If you’re in desperate need of a bye week replacement at WR, consider starting Packers’ rookie Jordy Nelson.  For Tampa Bay I’m not sold on QB Brian Griese in spite of his amazing performance last weekend against the Bears - I attribute that more to his familiarity with his former team’s Defense than a sudden increase in his skill level, and I wouldn’t start him this week unless I needed a bye week replacement.  RB Earnest Graham is the only other Buc I’d start this week - no, I’m not sold on WR Antonio Bryant either (see previous note on Brian Griese).  Green Bay’s Defense is worth starting; Tampa Bay’s is not.

Buffalo at St. Louis - Things figure to go from bad to worse this weekend with the Rams, who appear to be the worst team in the league through the first three weeks of the season.  Bills’ QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and Kicker Rian Lindell should all be started.  Rams’ Head Coach Scott Linehan has scapegoated QB Marc Bulger for the team’s horrible start, replacing him with QB Trent Green.  It’s doubtful Green will inspire an offensive line that’s yielded 11 sacks in its first three games to play better, and he should not be started.  RB Stephen Jackson is Probable with a groin injury, but he’s still worth starting on the assumption that the Rams will rely heavily on their ground game in the early stages of the game to keep the pressure off Green.  TE Randy McMichael and WRs Torry Holt should also be started, but I’d avoid Kicker Josh Brown this week due to my doubts that the Rams will score many points.  The Bills’ Defense should be started; the Rams’ Defense should not.

San Diego at Oakland - The health of the Chargers’ two primary offensive threats, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates, is still in question, but since both are listed as Probable on this week’s injury report, they should both be started.  QB Philip Rivers, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and Kicker Nate Kaeding should also be started, but RB Darren Sproles should not - he probably won’t see enough touches to make a fantasy impact if Tomlinson is healthy enough to start.  Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell should be started only by those desperate for a bye week replacement.  RB Justin Fargas is out and RB Darren McFadden is once again listed as Questionable with a lingering case of turf toe.  I would not start McFadden this week unless I had no other options.  However, I would start RB Michael Bush on the assumption he will get the majority of carries with McFadden still less than 100%.  TE Zach Miller and WRs Javon Walker & Ronald Curry should also be started against a Chargers’ Defense that has thus far failed to live up to its preseason billing as the league’s top Defense.  Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is also worth starting.  I’d avoid starting either Defense.

Washington at Dallas  - While Dallas’ offense has been predictably explosive so far, the Defense has not looked nearly as strong and figures to get another stern test this week from the Redskins’ offense.  QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, and Kicker Steve Suisham should all be started this week.  Their Cowboy counterparts, QB Tony Romo, RBs Marion Barber & Felix Jones, TE Jason Witten,WRs Terrell Owens & Patrick Crayton, and Kicker Nick Folk should all be started this week.  I wouldn’t start either Defense in anticipation of a high-scoring game.

Philadelphia at Chicago - Ordinarily I’d be touting the Eagles offensive players as starters, but QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, and TE L.J. Smith are all nursing injuries heading into this weekend’s showdown with a Bears’ Defense that has faltered after its Week 1 demolition of the Colts.  Of these three McNabb is the only one I’d consider a must-start, assuming that he’s healthy enough to play.  If you have healthier options than Westbrook with more favorable matchups, I’d keep Westbrook on the bench this week.  Smith is listed as doubtful, so I’d avoid him at all costs.  WR DeSean Jackson should be started, but I’d stay away from Kicker David Akers.  Bears’ QB Kyle Orton should be started only as a last-resort bye week replacement.  RB Matt Forte is the only Bears’ offensive player worth starting.  Both Defenses should be started in anticipation of a low-scoring game - I’d be surprised if the winner scores 21 points.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Two strong Defenses face off against two struggling offenses - I’d expect a low-scoring game here too.  I would not start Steelers’ rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall against the Ravens’ Defense, and I’d start the rest of the Steelers offensive players only if I had no other options.  That goes double for the Ravens’ offensive players.  In fact, the two teams’ Defenses may be the only performers from this game worth starting.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Week 4 is the first (scheduled) bye week - 6 teams will be off this week:  Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, and Seattle.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week:

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning, Jon Kitna, Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck

Running Backs

Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Julius Jones, Ronnie Brown, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Smith

Wide Receivers

Reggie Wayne, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson,  Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison, Amani Toomer

Tight Ends

Dallas Clark, Anthony Fasano, John Carlson, Ben Watson

Kickers

Stephen Gostkowski, Adam Vinatieri,  Jason Hanson, John Carney, Olindo Mare

Defenses

New England, NY Giants, Seattle, Indianapolis

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Gus Frerotte (LT), Brian Griese (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Damon Huard (SPEC), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Brady Quinn (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC)

Running Backs

Le’Ron McClain (LT), Correll Buckhalter (SPEC),  Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Robert Meacham (LT), Ike Hilliard (LT), Brandon Lloyd (LT), Antonio Bryant (LT), Josh Reed (LT), Michael Jenkins (LT), Kevin Walter (LT), Hank Baskett (ST), Devery Henderson (ST), Lance Moore (ST), Antonio Chatman (ST), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Roscoe Parrish (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Zach Miller (LT), Marcedes Lewis (LT), Justin Keller (LT), Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Bo Scaife (LT), Chris Baker (LT), Dustin Keller (LT), Jeff King (LT), Robert Royal (ST)

Kickers

David Akers (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), John Kasay (LT), Neil Rackers (ST), Joe Nedney (ST)

Defenses

Tenessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Philadelphia (LT)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 3’s games:

Kansas City at Atlanta - Hard to know what to make of this game - a below-average offense and a mediocre defense (KC) vs. a mediocre offense and below-average defense (Atlanta).  My guess is that all translates into a 24-21 or 24-17 game, meaning none of the players on either team are likely to lead your fantasy team to victory this weekend.  Can Chiefs’ QB of the week Tyler Thigpen throw well enough to keep the Atlanta offense honest and give RB Larry Johnson some room to run?  I doubt it.  TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe might have some value on the assumption that Thigpen’s got to complete some passes to someone, but hopefully you have better options at both positions this weekend.  On the Atlanta side I would start RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood on the assumption both will get at least 10-15 carries.  I wouldn’t start QB Matt Ryan either, but again, his top two WRs (Roddy White and Michael Jenkins) can be started under the assumption that Ryan’s got to complete some passes to someone.  I’d stay away from both Kickers and both Defenses.

Arizona at Washington - This game features two potentially explosive offenses, suggesting that each team possesses a number of useful fantasy options this week.  For the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, TE Leonard Pope, and K Neil Rackers are all worth starting.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley, and K Shaun Suisham are all worth starting.  Leave both Defenses out of your lineups this week.

Miami at New England - I wouldn’t start anyone from Miami’s offense this weekend unless I had no other options.  I would not start Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel yet, even against Miami’s defense.  I’d also stay away from the Patriots’ running backs, since as many as four may share carries on Sunday.  However, TE Ben Watson, who appears set to make his first start of the season, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting Sunday. New England’s Defense is also worth starting.

Carolina at Minnesota - New Vikings’ QB Gus Frerotte may be a half step up from Tarvaris Jackson, but I would not start him this weekend.  His starting WRs, Bernard Berrian & Sidney Rice, are listed as Probable & Questionable, respectively, making Frerotte an even less appealing option.  With RB Adrian Peterson listed as Questionable, I’d also advise against starting him, unless you’re willing to settle for a line similar to LaDainian Tomlinson’s last week against the Broncos.  RB Chester Taylor and TE Visanthe Shiancoe are worth starting only in the deepest of leagues.  The Panthers’ offer a number of enticing options this weekend, starting with QB Jake Delhomme.  As with many other teams the running back situation is muddled, but both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are worth starting against the Vikings.  WR Steve Smith returns from his two-game suspension this week and should be starting on all fantasy teams immediately.  Fellow WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad are also worth starting.  I also like K John Kasay and the Panthers’ Defense.

Cincinnati at NY Giants - QB Carson Palmer’s ankle injury figures to limit his mobility this weekend, which suggests the Giants will spend most of the afternoon blitzing, especially since RB Chris Perry hasn’t shown much in the first two weeks - I’d avoid both of them.  However, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco should be started if they’re on your roster - Cincinnati’s QB (whether it’s Palmer or backup Ryan Fitzpatrick) figures to throw a lot of passes this weekend.  I’d also avoid K Shayne Graham and the Bengals’ Defense.  Giants’ QB Eli Manning looked extremely poised in last week’s demolition of St. Louis, and while he may never put up the numbers that older brother Peyton does, he is definitely worth starting against the Bengals this week.  Like many teams the Giants also split carries among multiple running backs, but Brandon Jacobs is the only one worth starting.  WRs Plaxico Burress & Amani Toomer, K John Carney, and the Giants’ Defense are also worth starting this weekend.

Houston at Tennessee - Much has been made of Texans’ rookie RB Steve Slaton getting his first start this week, but given the rust factor (Houston and Baltimore didn’t play in Week 2 due to Hurricane Ike) and the Titans’ stout defense, I’d avoid starting him.  QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense are all worth starting this weekend.  Although Kerry Collins may still be a step up from Vince Young passing-wise, I’d stay away from him this week given his immobility and the Texans’ pass rush.  With WR Justin Gage Questionable for this week, I’d avoid the Titans’ WR and start TE Alge Crumpler if you want to speculate on Collins’ favorite target.  RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson both figure to get at least 15 carries and be worth starting.  K Rob Bironas and the Titans’ Defense are also worth starting this weekend.

Tampa Bay at Chicago - If the Texans-Titans game isn’t the lowest scoring game of the week, then this game will probably be it.  Imagine what Bears’ backup QB Rex Grossman will be thinking when he watches his two backups from last season (current Bears’ starting QB Kyle Orton and Bucs’ starting QB Brian Griese) face off against each other.  I would recommend avoiding all offensive players on both teams, but if you find yourself in a bind at RB, Bucs’ RB Earnest Graham and Bears’ RB Matt Forte figure to get a lot of carries, if not a lot of yards.  Just make sure not to start Bucs’ WR Joey Galloway since he’s out this week with an injury.  Both Defenses are worth starting this week in anticipation of a baseball-like final score.

Oakland at Buffalo - Unlike most experts I believe that Oakland will be successful moving the ball against the Bills’ Defense.  Sure, RB Justin Fargas is Doubtful, and heralded rookie RB Darren McFadden is Probable, but that just leaves more carries for RB Michael Bush, who finally got to showcase his ability in last week’s victory over the Chiefs after McFadden went out with an injury.  I’d try to avoid starting either McFadden or Bush this week given McFadden’s uncertain status, but even if he’s able to start, I’d still rather have Bush in my fantasy lineup this weekend.  QB JaMarcus Russell doesn’t figure to put up big passing numbers - TE Zach Miller is the only Raiders’ receiver I’d recommend.  K Sebastian Janikowski is also worth starting this week.  For the Bills QB Trent Edwards continues to surprise and figures to have a good game Sunday, as does RB Marshawn Lynch - both are worth starting.  WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed are both worth starting, as is Bills’ K Rian Lindell.  I’d avoid both Defenses in anticipation of a fairly high-scoring game.

New Orleans at Denver - This figures to be a game where the losing team could well score 28 points or more.  Accordingly, leave both Defenses out of your starting lineup this week.  For the Saints QB Drew Brees, RBs Reggie Bush & Pierre Thomas, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs David Patton & Devery Henderson, and K Martin Gramatica are all worth starting.  For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater are all worth starting.  Stay away from the Denver RB situation unless you’re truly desperate - you have a better chance of predicting the stock market’s closing price for next Friday than you do of forecasting how this mess will play out.

Detroit at San Francisco - Another game in which you should pass on both defenses.  For the Lions QB Jon Kitna, RB Kevin Smith, WRs Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson, and K Jason Hanson should all be starting in fantasy leagues this week.  For the 49ers QB J.T. O’Sullivan’s “luck of the Irish” will probably run out in the near future, but he’s definitely worth starting this week in deeper leagues.  RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney are all start-worthy too.

St. Louis at Seattle  - The good news - one of these two teams will almost certainly win its first game of the week this year.  The bad news - this game features many of this season’s biggest disappointments season-to-date from a fantasy perspective, making it difficult to wholeheartedly recommend any of the underperforming stars on either side.  Still, Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Brown can all be started against a Seahawks’ defense that has played poorly in its first two games.  For the Seahawks offense, QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, and K Olindo Mare can all be started - I’d stay away from all of the Seahawks WRs, given their apparent penchant for injury.  Avoid both Defenses in this game too.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - While unlikely to match the fireworks of last Monday night’s game between the Eagles and the Cowboys, this contest also has the potential for a lot of offensive fireworks.  Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, WRs Santonio Holmes & Hines Ward, and K Jeff Reed can all be started this weekend in fantasy lineups.  For the Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, WR DeSean Jackson, and K David Akers all are good starts this week - hopefully, Jackson will remember to cross the goal line with the ball this week!  I’d avoid starting either Defense if you have other options.

Cleveland at Baltimore - Another game that’s difficult to analyze.  I wouldn’t read too much into the Browns’ early season struggles at home - the Cowboys look like frontrunners for the Vince Lombardi trophy at this point in the season, and the game with the Steelers was marred by high winds.  Still, the Ravens’ defense is no slouch, and they’ve had an extra week of rest too following their unexpected bye week last weekend.  I’d avoid QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis this weekend, but I’d feel comfortable starting either TE Kellen Winslow or WR Braylon Edwards.  For the Ravens I’d avoid RB Willis McGahee (health concerns) and QB Joe Flacco (rookie concerns), but TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason are worth starting.  I’d stay away from both Kickers, but I’d be willing to start either Defense.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Another potentially high-scoring game.  Although both teams have played well below their potential in the first two weeks (especially on offense), I expect that to change this week.  Jaguars’ QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Matt Jones all figure to rack up big days against a Colts’ defense that will be without Bob Sanders.  K Josh Scobee is also a good start this week.  For the Colts expect Peyton Manning to have a big game now that he’ll have both Center Jeff Saturday and TE Dallas Clark back.  Manning, RB Joseph Addai, Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri are all worth starting this week.  I’d avoid both Defenses.

Dallas at Green Bay - Another potentially high- scoring game.  Dallas QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk are all members of the best offense in football and should all be starting if they’re on your fantasy roster.  Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers; WRs Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, & James Jones; and K Mason Crosby are all worth starting too.  I’d avoid the Packers’ RBs if at all possible due to uncertaintly re: Ryan Grant’s status - Brandon Jackson is a better bet this week, but again, I’d avoid both unless I had no other options.  Both Defenses should be avoided too.

NY Jets at San Diego - In spite of the Jets’ anemic offense the first two weeks of the season, I expect yet another high-scoring game here.  Jets’ QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Chris Baker, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and K Jay Feely are all worth starting against the Chargers’ defense, which obviously misses Shawne Merriman.  If WR Laveranues Coles is healthy enough to play, he’ll also warrant a start; if not, consider RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, and WR Chansi Stuckey as candidates to pick up the slack for Coles.  For the Chargers it’s impossible to say at this point whether RB LaDainian Tomlinson will play this weekend, and if he does, how effective he’ll be.  Even if he does play, his backup RB Darren Sproles is worth starting in deeper leagues this week.  QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding are also worth starting.  Avoid both Defenses this week.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

This week I’ll list recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll also give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Trent Edwards (LT), Kurt Warner (ST), J.T. O`Sullivan (ST),  Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Matt Leinart (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC)

Running Backs

Michael Bush (LT), Darren Sproles (ST),  Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), DeShaun Foster (SPEC), Jason Wright (SPEC), Brandon Jackson (SPEC), Pierre Thomas (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Derrick Ward (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

David Patten (LT), Kevin Walter (LT), Justin Gage (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), James Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Heath Miller (LT), John Carlson (LT), Zach Miller (LT), Marcedes Lewis (LT), Justin Keller (SPEC), Visanthe Shiancoe (SPEC)

Kickers

David Akers (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), John Carney (ST)

Defenses

Jacksonville (LT), Tenessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Philadelphia (LT), Carolina (LT), Washington (LT), NY Jets (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

As you’ve probably heard by now, this weekend’s Baltimore @ Houston game has been postponed due to Hurricane Ike.  The game was originally scheduled to be played this afternoon, then rescheduled for tomorrow night; now, it’s been rescheduled for Week 10 (Sun 11/9 at 1:00pm ET).  Baltimore and Houston will both have their bye weeks this week.  The Cincinnati at Houston game originally scheduled for Week 10 (Sun 11/9) has been moved up to Week 8 (Sun 10/26 at 4:05pm ET).  Cincinnati will now have their bye week in Week 10 (Sun 11/9) instead of Week 8 (Sun 10/26).  I’ve updated the 2008 NFL Schedule by Team on the Fantasy Football Sherpa homepage to reflect these changes.  Be sure to get any Texans and Ravens on your team out of your starting lineup this week.

Much more importantly, let’s hope the rescue and recovery efforts in Texas go well!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 2’s games:

Chicago at Carolina - Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective - I expect a fairly low-scoring game.  With Bears’ RB Matt Forte’s ankle bothering him, I’d bench him if you have healthier options.  QB Kyle Orton will probably be forced to throw more than he did in Week 1, but I’d still stay away from both him and his WRs.  TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen should be the primary beneficiaries if Orton does throw more, but since they split time and catches, I’d stay away from both.  On the Panthers’ side, I expect all of their offensive players to struggle; I’d stay away from all of them.  Week 1 star Dante Rosario is questionable with a foot injury, so find another option for this week.  Both Kickers (Robbie Gould for the Bears; John Kasay for the Panthers) are decent options, as they may each get several field goal opportunities.

Tennessee at Cincinnati - A tough game to figure.  Ordinarily, you’d expect a backup QB, even one as experienced as Kerry Collins to struggle in his first start of the season; however, this is the Bengals’ defense we’re talking about here.  Still, RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson, along with TE Alge Crumpler figure to rack up decent fantasy stats in this game.  Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer will almost certainly look better than he did last week against the Ravens; he’s worth starting, as are his dynamic duo of WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco.  Both Kickers (Titans’ Rob Bironas and Bengals’ Shayne Graham) are worth starting this weekend, but I’d avoid both defenses.

Green Bay at Detroit - Both offenses figure to be productive on Sunday.  For the Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are all worth starting.  If RB Ryan Grant’s hamstring is healthy enough to allow him to play, he’s also worth starting.  For the Lions QB Jon Kitna, RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are all worth starting.  Both Kickers (Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and Detroit’s Jason Hanson) are also worth starting.  In anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - I believe that Bills’ QB Trent Edwards will put up good, but not great, fantasy numbers this year, and if you’re looking for a replacement for injured QBs Tom Brady or Vince Young, he’s definitely worth a free agent claim.  Still, this is probably not the weekend to start him.  Start Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch, but stay away from the Bills’ receivers.  Jacksonville’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries, which may limit the effectiveness of QB David Garrard and RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, but they’re still all worth starting.  TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Matt Jones should also produce decent fantasy numbers this weekend.  Jacksonville Kicker Josh Scobee and the Jaguars’ defense are also worth starting.

Oakland at Kansas City - Two weak offenses against two seemingly weaker defenses.  Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell, RBs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and WRs Ronald Curry and Javon Walker are worth starting.  Do not be fooled by WR Ashley Lelie’s TD reception last weekend - with Walker returning, his playing time figures to decrease significantly.  Chiefs’ Head Coach Herm Edwards has spoken this week about instituting a QB platoon with starter Brodie Croyle out, so steer clear of both Damon Huard and Tyler Thigpen (not that you had either of them on your roster anyway!).  Assuming that Huard gets the start this week, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WRs Dwayne Bowe and Devard Darling are all worth starting.  If you have roster space, Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles is also an intriguing pickup under the assumption that Johnson may not stay healthy for the entire year.  Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Sebastian Janikowski for the Raiders; Nick Novak for the Chiefs), but I’d avoid both defenses.

Indianapolis at Minnesota - Hard to believe that one of these supposed Super Bowl contenders will start the season 0-2.  Expect Colts’ QB Peyton Manning to shake off the rust this weekend and have a big game facing the Vikings’ secondary.  Assuming that Manning is able to throw effectively, RB Joseph Addai also figures to be in for a big game.  WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez are all worth starting, but I’d stay away from TE Dallas Clark this week due to injury concerns.  For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is the only start-worthy option this weekend.  The Colts’ defense and Kicker Adam Vinatieri are also good starts this weekend.

NY Giants at St. Louis - Reports of the Rams’ offensive demise have been greatly exaggerated.  Even without a legitimate second WR to throw to, I’d expect QB Marc Bulger to bounce back from his disastrous showing last weekend.  RB Steven Jackson, WR Tory Holt, and TE Randy McMichael are also worth starting.  For the Giants QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Plaxico Burress all figure to have big days against a weak Rams defense.  Once again, both Kickers are worth starting (Josh Brown for the Rams; John Carney for the Giants), but I’d avoid both defenses.

New Orleans at Washington - Another game that figures to be an offensive shootout.  Even with star WR Marques Colston out for the Saints, QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR David Patten should all be started this weekend.  Do not start Saints’ RB Deuce McAllister or WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem unless you are in a very deep league and don’t have other options.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, and WRs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are all worth starting.  Both Kickers are worth starting (Martin Gramatica for the Saints; Steve Suisham for the Redskins), but I’d avoid both defenses.

San Francisco at Seattle - Seattle has been decimated by injuries, which makes this game tough to analyze.  This is the week where we find out if Seahawks’ RB Julius Jones has anything left in his tank - I’d start him on the assumption that he does.  QB Matt Hasselbeck is worth starting, and since he’s got to complete passes to someone,TE John Carlson and WR Courtney Taylor are also worth starting in deeper leagues.  If any NFL team has a weaker pair of QBs than the 49ers’ J.T. O`Sullivan and Shaun Hill, I’m hard-pressed to name them (KC, perhaps?)  49ers’ RB Frank Gore is worth starting, and if you’re really desperate TE Vernon Davis and WR Bryant Johnson also figure to catch a few passes each.  Seattle’s Kicker (Olindo Mare) and defense are both worth starting too.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Will the real Falcon team please stand up?  Is it the team that looked impressive (at least on offense) last weekend against the defensively challenged Lions?  Or is it the team that most experts figured would be in for yet another losing season due to a Swiss cheese defense?  I still vote for the latter.  QB Matt Ryan is worth a speculative add if you have room on your roster, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to look as good this week facing the Buccaneers’ defense.  RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are worth starting, and if you’re in a deeper league WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are too.  With Brian Griese taking the reigns from Jeff Garcia at QB for Tampa Bay, I’d avoid all of the Bucs’ offensive players this week (even facing a Swiss cheese defense!), even RB Earnest Graham and WR Joey Galloway.  Expecting a low-scoring game I would avoid both Kickers but start either Defense.

Miami at Arizona - If you’re looking for a Tom Brady replacement in a deeper league, you could certainly do worse than Miami QB Chad Pennington or Arizona QB Kurt Warner.  I’d prefer Warner over Pennington simply because he has better receivers to throw to, but both are worth starting this weekend against suspect defenses.  The Dolphins’ RB situation continues to be muddled - I’d avoid starting either Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown this weekend unless I had no other options.  I suspect Brown will eventually prove to be the more effective of the pair, but that’s still no reason to start him this weekend.  Along with Pennington, WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano are worth starting this week.  I’m not a fan of Cardinals’ RB Edgerrin James in spite of his 100-yard game last weekend against the 49ers, but he’s worth starting against the Dolphins’ defense.  If you have room on your roster, rookie Arizona RB Tim Hightower is worth a speculative pickup.  WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both worth starting this week (as they are every week), as are Kicker Neil Rackers and the Cardinals’ defense.

San Diego at Denver - Another potentially high-scoring game.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and TE Antonio Gates should all be starting this weekend on your roster.  I’d avoid the inconsistent WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson unless you’re in a deeper league and don’t have other options.  For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, RB Selvin Young, and WR Brandon Marshall are all worth starting this weekend.  I’m not sold on WR Eddie Royal yet, but if you already own him, chances are you’ll start him this weekend to see whether he can have another big day with Marshall back to divert the Charger defense’s attention.  I’d stay away from both defenses, but Kickers Matt Prater for the Broncos and Nate Kaeding for the Chargers are both worth starting.

New England at NY Jets - Finally, a week without Tom Brady being listed on the Patriots’ injury report with a sore shoulder!  No one can say for certain how the Patriots’ offense will react after practicing with new starting QB Matt Cassel for a full week.  Unless you picked him up as a replacement for Tom Brady or Vince Young, I wouldn’t start him this week.  He may prove to be a viable fantasy option as the weeks go by, but probably not this week.  Given the uncertainty in the Patriots’ backfield, I’d avoid both RBs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris this week as well.  WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still worth starting, even with Cassel at quarterback, and TE David Thomas (who may start for Ben Watson) may also do well this weekend, given that he’s probably more familiar with Cassel than the other Patriots’ receivers.  On the Jets’ side I’m still not counting on Brett Favre putting up fantasy results worthy of a starter, and I’d avoid him this weekend unless you have no other options.  The only Jets’ offensive players I like this weekend are WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Chris Baker.  Expecting a low-scoring game, I’d stay away from both Kickers but start either defense.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Let me be (one of) the first to jump off the Browns’ bandwagon - at least for this week!  While not every team (check that, maybe no other team) is as talented as the Cowboys, the Steelers still figure to do well against a questionable Browns’ defense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should all be starting this weekend if they’re on your roster.  For Cleveland QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Braylon Edwards are all worth starting, but don’t expect any of them to lead your team to victory this week.  Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Jeff Reed for the Steelers; Phil Dawson for the Browns), as is the Steelers’ defense.

Philadelphia at Dallas - I expect a high-scoring game here too, so plenty of fantasy options on both sides.  For the Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, and WR DeSean Jackson are all worth starting.  For the Cowboys QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton are all worth starting this week.  Both Kickers are worth starting this week (David Akers for the Eagles; Nick Folk for the Cowboys), but in anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.

Baltimore at Houston - The magic carpet ride (if you can call it that) is probably over for Ravens’ rookie QB Joe Flacco after just one week - even if you picked him up this week as a free agent, he’s not worth starting against a defense that figures to put more pressure on him than the Bengals did.  RB Willis McGahee is a risky start this week due to ongoing injury concerns - RB Ray Rice is a good alternative, but RB Le`Ron McClain is not.  TE Todd Heap is still worth starting in spite of injury concerns, but I’d avoid WRs Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason this week if you have better alternatives.  For the Texans I’d avoid starting QB Matt Schaub and rookie RB Steve Slaton, but TE Owen Daniels and WRs Andre Johnson and Ken Walter should be started.  I’d avoid both Kickers, but both defenses are worth starting this week in anticipation of a low-scoring game.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Most team owners’ fantasy football roster changes after Week 1 fall into one of two categories:  (1) moves necessitated by injuries, and (2) reactions to players’ disappointing performances.  If you owned Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Marques Colston, Maurice Morris, etc., you probably need to make a roster move this week.  However, if you own Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Peyton Manning, Braylon Edwards, etc., don’t let their disappointing performances in Week 1 tempt you to do something rash (i.e. - trading them for below-market value) or dumb (i.e. - dropping them).

If Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez goes 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on baseball’s Opening Day, their fantasy owners would be disappointed, if not upset, but would realize that it’s just one game out of 162.  However, with football teams having just 10% of the number of games their baseball brethern do, every game’s results are magnified - both for better or for worse.

On the other hand, don’t get too giddy if some of your players exceeded expectations during Week 1.  Does anyone really believe that Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario will be among the league leaders at their respective positions at the end of the season?  Me neither.  Put another way, if someone offers you Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson for Michael Turner this week, or Braylon Edwards for Matt Jones, or Peyton Manning for Donovan McNabb, quickly accept the deal before the other owner has a chance to change their mind!

Reversing the roles for a minute, if you are the owner of Matt Ryan, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, etc., see what other team owners in your league would be willing to give up to obtain these Week 1 wonders.  You may be surprised.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Since Wednesday is often the day that fantasy football leagues process their free agent/waiver wire claims, today I’ll focus on some potentially useful players who may be available in your league.  Many team owners are wondering where to turn after injuries to Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Maurice Morris, Marques Colston, Darren McFadden, and others - the Sherpa is here to help!

Quarterback

Amazingly, Jon Kitna and Kurt Warner are still available in a number of leagues.  I’d describe them as the “anti-Roethlisbergers” - they’re more useful to a fantasy team than they are to NFL teams (imagine if you were penalized even more for interceptions/fumbles in key situations in your fantasy league!)  If either happens to be available in your league this week, he’s definitely worth a pick-up (especially if you were a Tom Brady owner).  I doubt you’d find any other QBs available this week who are capable of throwing for 3,500+ yards and 30+ TDs!  If Kitna and Warner are already taken in your league, other widely-available options include Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, and JaMarcus Russell.  I’d take a chance on Matt Cassel only if the previous options were all unavailable.  I’d steer clear of Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Depending on the number of teams and bench spots your league uses, the pickings could be pretty slim here.  In the unlikely event Justin Fargas or Julius Jones are available in your league, they’re definitely worth a claim.  Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson is also likely unavailable in your league.  More likely options include Sammy Morris, Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Jackson, and Leon Washington.

Wide Receiver

Rookies Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson both had impressive debuts this past weekend.  With Brandon Marshall returning this week for Denver, I think it’s highly unlikely Royal will approach his Week 1 stats anytime soon again.  However, I do like Jackson’s potential to continue posting impressive stats throughout his rookie season.  Royal becomes more attractive than he would be otherwise in leagues that give individual players Kickoff Return yardage, but I still prefer Jackson.  With Marques Colston out for an estimated 4-6 weeks, see if any of the Saints’ WRs are available (David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, in that order).  Kevin Walter, Matt Jones, Devard Darling, and Courtney Taylor are some other potentially useful WRs who may be available in your league this week.

Tight Ends

I like Anthony Fasano, Chris Baker, and Marcedes Lewis more than I like Dante Rosario.

Kickers

Unless you had Mike Nugent on your team, you probably aren’t (and shouldn’t be) looking for a replacement based on just one game.  However, if you did have Nugent on your team (or don’t wish to heed my previous advice), Jason Hanson, Steve Suisham, John Carney, Matt Bryant, and Matt Stover would be my recommended options based on their teams’ matchups this week.

Defenses

As with the Kickers I wouldn’t be looking to make any changes here after one week (even if you own the Rams’ defense!).  If you like to switch Defenses from week to week based on matchups, some Defenses that may be available whose matchups I like this week include Arizona (vs Miami), Carolina (vs Chicago), Detroit (vs Green Bay), Houston (vs. Baltimore), Oakland (at Kansas City), and Kansas City (versus Oakland - yes, I don’t expect much offense in this game!).

Good luck with your claims!

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa