Week 1 Predictions (9/7/08)
Sunday, September 7th, 2008Here are some thoughts on games and players for the opening weekend of the NFL season:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - I’d avoid starting players from either team in this game, if at all possible - I just don’t have a good sense of how things are going to play out. New Orleans’ offense is obviously superior to Tampa Bay’s, but Tampa Bay’s defense also appears to be much stronger than New Orleans. The Kickers (Matt Bryant for Tampa Bay; Martin Gramatica for New Orleans) may decide the outcome.
St. Louis at Philadelphia - Lots of good options on both sides in this one - I expect a high-scoring game. Eagles’ players I like today are Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith, DeSean Jackson, and David Akers. Rams’ players who should do well are Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Randy McMichael, and Josh Brown.
New York Jets at Miami - I look for the Jets to dominate here. Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Chris Baker, Mike Nugent, and the Jets’ defense should all do well today. On the Dolphins’ side of the ball, the only player I like is Ted Ginn (especially if your league counts kickoff return yardage!)
Kansas City at New England - This also appears to be a mismatch. Without a passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest, I suspect that Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will struggle today. Tony Gonzalez may have some value, but that’s about it as far as the Chiefs’ offense goes. On the New England side - where do you start? Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Laurence Maroney, Stephen Gostkowski, and the Patriots’ defense should all do well today.
Houston at Pittsburgh - I’d stay away from the whole Texans’ RB situation until that sorts itself out, but Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Kris Brown should all help their fantasy owners today. On the Pittsburgh side, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and Jeff Reed should all do well. I’d avoid both defenses, although Pittsburgh’s may be able to force a few turnovers if Houston is unable to run the ball and is forced to pass 45-50 times.
Cincinnati at Baltimore - I’d normally avoid rookie QBs making their first start, but Joe Flacco has a tempting matchup today against the Bengals defense. I would avoid both Willis McGahee and Ray Rice today, although the eventual starter (should be McGahee if he’s fully recovered) will have good value this season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Matt Stover are all worth starting this week. On the Bengals side of the ball I don’t expect their running game will be able to do much, but Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco (yes, I’m referring to him by his new name), and Shayne Graham should all do well.
Detroit at Atlanta - Another game where I’d be willing to ignore my usual rule about avoiding rookie QBs making their first start. Matt Ryan should be able to throw the ball against the Lions’ defense, which bodes well for Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Ben Hartsock. He also has a decent running game at his disposal - Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are both worth starting as a 2nd RB or Flex player. Kicker Jason Elam should also have a number of scoring opportunities. For the Lions I wouldn’t look for too much from Kevin Smith, much less Rudi Johnson, today. However, Jon Kitna and all four of his primary receivers (Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Shaun McDonald, Mike Furrey) should do well. Kicker Jason Hanson is also worth starting this week.
Seattle at Buffalo - Like the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game I’m having a hard time analyzing this game. I don’t like either of Seattle’s Running Backs (Maurice Morris or Julius Jones), and all the question marks at Wide Receiver (Nate Burleson, Courtney Taylor) would lead me to pass on QB Matt Hasselbeck. On the Buffalo side I like RB Marshawn Lynch a lot, but since I’m not sure what to expect from QB Trent Edwards, I’d avoid all the Buffalo receivers for today. I suspect both teams’ defenses will do well today, particularly if your league uses total yards allowed or total points allowed as a scoring category.
Jacksonville at Tennessee - I have no confidence in Titans’ QB Vince Young, which diminishes the appeal of the other Titans’ offensive players. RB LenDale White and TE Alge Crumpler should do well, but I’d stay away from all of the Tennessee WRs. On the Jacksonville side I like QB David Garrard, RB Fred Taylor, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, and the Defense.
Dallas at Cleveland - Like most experts I’m expecting a fairly high-scoring game here; unlike most experts, I don’t think it will be close. Dallas has too many offensive weapons, and their defense is also capable of making opponents’ lives miserable. QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber (who I actually rate higher than Adrian Peterson this season), WRs Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton, TE Jason Witten, and K Nick Folk should all make their fantasy owners happy today (and throughout the season). On the Cleveland side I would stay away from RB Jamal Lewis given his injury concerns (note: if RB Jason Wright is available on your league’s waiver wire, I would definitely put in a claim for him!). QB Derek Anderson, WR Braylon Edwards, and TE Kellen Winslow are all worth starting, but I’d stay away from WR Donte Stallworth.
Carolina at San Diego - This also appears to be a mismatch, especially with the Panthers missing WR Steve Smith. However, I suspect QB Jake Delhomme will find a way to get the ball to WR Muhsin Muhammad and TE Jeff King, which makes them worth starting if you don’t have better options available (note: if WR Dwayne Jarrett is available in your league, he is also worth a waiver claim if you have room on your bench). I’d avoid both Carolina RBs (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) against the Chargers’ defense. For the Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (duh), QB Philip Rivers, WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, K Nick Kaeding, and the Defense are all worth starting. TE Antonio Gates is a question mark due to his injured toe - I’d avoid starting him if at all possible.
Arizona at San Francisco - 49ers’ QB J.T. O`Sullivan may be a feel-good story, but I’d feel much better if you don’t start him (or have him anywhere on your roster, for that matter). I suspect both Alex Smith, and possibly even Shaun Hill will be starting at QB for the 49ers at some point this season. For this week, RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis should do well, but I’d avoid all SF WRs because of my doubts about O`Sullivan. For Arizona QB Kurt Warner, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Leonard Pope, and K Neil Rackers should all do well. Arizona’s Defense is also a good play this week given doubts about O`Sullivan’s ability to get the ball to his wide receivers. I’d avoid the Cardinals’ RB situation until it’s clear whether Edgerrin James or rookie Tim Hightower (another good speculative pickup, if he’s available on your league’s waiver wire) will get the bulk of the carries this season.
Chicago at Indianapolis - Another mismatch, at least on paper (I know, I know - the games are played on grass and turf, not on paper). I would stay away from any and all Chicago offensive players, even the Tight Ends. On the Colts’ side I’m more concerned about QB Peyton Manning working with a new Center and facing the Bears’ defense than I am about his knee. Still, I suspect he will have a good, but not great, game this week, along with RB Joseph Addai (look for him to get more carries than normal to keep pressure off of Manning), TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and Kicker Adam Vinatieri. I’d avoid Colts’ WRs Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez until it’s clearer how much (and how well) Harrison will be able to play this season. The Colts’ defense should also do well this week.
Minnesota at Green Bay - Another tough game to analyze. Whether Ryan Grant or Brandon Jackson starts at RB for the Packers, I don’t expect either one to do very well against the Vikings’ defense. This will put the burden on QB Aaron Rodgers, and I think he will have a good, not great, game throwing to WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and TE Donald Lee. For the Vikings I would avoid QB Tarvaris Jackson and his receivers until he proves he can be an effective passer. In the meantime, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will have to carry the Vikings’ offense, and I have my doubts about their ability to do so against the Packers’ defense. I’d stay away from both Kickers, but Green Bay’s Defense may be worth starting (just because I think they’ll be able to contain Peterson and Taylor due to the Vikes’ lack of a passing game).
Denver at Oakland - Another game with a lot of question marks. RB Selvin Young is the only Bronco I’d consider starting. QB Jay Cutler should have a very good season, but with WR Brandon Marshall out this week, I don’t like his chances throwing to Darrell Jackson (ankle injury) and rookie Eddie Royal. The Broncos’ Tight End situation is also muddled, so I’d avoid that too. I’d avoid Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell and his Wide Receivers against Denver’s secondary, but I like TE Zach Miller to have a big game. Rookie RB Darren McFadden has a lot of his fantasy owners excited, but at least in the short run (including this week) RB Justin Fargas is likely to have more fantasy value.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa