The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Several years ago the Tennessee Titans were one of the laughingstocks of the NFL.  Vince Young, the third pick in the 2006 draft, has been a bust to date.  Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth was suspended for five games and fined $190K in 2006 after stomping on the helmetless head of Cowboys’ Center Andre Gurode, who, fortunately, was able to resume his career and made the Pro Bowl in 2007.  The Defense was always fairly strong, but an anemic Offense kept the team from being successful.

Fast forward to 2008.  Vince Young has been replaced at quarterback (at least for the time being) by Kerry Collins, who had some issues of his own earlier in his career.  The emergence of Running Backs LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson has given the Titans’ Offense the best one-two running punch in the NFL.  Albert Haynesworth has kept his temper in check, even joined Gurode in Hawaii as a Pro Bowl participant in 2007, and now anchors one of the strongest defensive units in the NFL.

With a record of 7-0 heading into Week 9, the Titans are the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team.  While their below-average passing game will prevent anyone from mentioning the 2008 Titans in the same breath as the 1972 Dolphins, or even the 2007 Patriots, the question remains, is an undefeated season realistic?  It’s easy to look at their far below average passing game and conclude that the answer is “no”.  Fair enough - then which team will be the one to knock the Titans from their lofty perch?  And even if they don’t go undefeated, are they a legitimate Super Bowl contender?

In order for a team to defeat the Titans, they would have to either have a very strong running game and/or a very strong run Defense of their own.  Looking over the Titans’ remaining schedule, the teams that fit these criteria the best are the Bears (Week 10 on the road), NY Jets (Week 12 at home), the Houston Texans (Week 15 on the road), and the Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 16 at home).  And to answer the second question, I believe the answer is a resounding “no” - without a legitimate air attack to keep an opposing Defense honest, teams will be able to overplay the run against the Titans and defeat them.  Pittsburgh is one team that comes to mind.  Super Bowl winners need to have at least the appearance of balance on Offense, and right now the Titans are a long way from having that, in spite of their unblemished record.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 9’s games:

Arizona at St Louis - We constantly hear about parity in the NFL and wonder if that’s a good thing.  Case in point - if the host Rams are able to win this week’s matchup with the Cardinals (a distinct possibility), then they would be a mere one game behind the first place Cardinals, in spite of having a record of 3-5.  For Arizona QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, and K Neil Rackers all deserve to start.  For the Cardinals, leave RB Steven Jackson (Questionable, thigh) on the bench unless you’ll have access to your team’s lineup right before gametime.  QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown should all be in your starting lineup.  Leave both Defenses out of your lineup - I could easily see the losing team in this game scoring 28+ points.

Houston at Minnesota - Democratic candidate for Senate Al Franken may be able to run in Minnesota, but it’s unlikely the Texans will be able to do the same in Sunday against the host Vikings’ stout run Defense.  Leave Steve Slaton on your bench this week if you have alternatives with better matchups.  Houston players who should be started include QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson.  WR Kevin Walter (Probable, knee) is a decent bye week replacement, while K Kris Brown is a bye week replacement for only the truly desperate.  For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, and K Ryan Longwell should all be in your lineup.  QB Gus Frerrotte is an adequate bye week replacement, as is WR Bobby Wade (especially in points per reception leagues).  Again, leave both Defenses on your bench in anticipation of a fairly high scoring game.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati - On paper this game appears to be a mismatch.  Still, as the cliche goes, games are played on the field, not on paper.  True enough, but my guess is that the Bengals will prove to be little more than paper tigers on Sunday.  Don’t be deceived by the Bengals’ ranking eighth in the NFL in fewest yards allowed rushing - the Bengals give up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (which ranks 20th overall) - the only reason teams don’t run more on them is that it’s even easier to pass against them.  Jaguars who should be started this week include QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones (check to make sure he’s not suspended by the NFL, although that doesn’t appear likely at this point), K Josh Scobee, and the Defense.  In spite of some of the “second half sleeper” hype you may have been reading about WR Reggie Williams (Questionable, hamstring), I’d leave him on the bench this week.  The pickings are much slimmer for Cincinnati - WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Johnson are the only Bengals you should consider definite starts this week.  However, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick makes a low-end bye week replacement, since he figures to throw many times against a weak Jaguars’ pass Defense.  Avoid RB Cedric Benson and the Bengals’ Defense at all costs.

NY Jets at Buffalo - This matchup pits two teams whose fans were disgusted with their team’s performance last weekend.  Cheer up, Jets’ fans, at least your team got a victory (albeit an ugly one against a cellar dwelling Chiefs team), and unlike ice skating, gymnastics, and diving, the NFL doesn’t care about style points.  Looking ahead to this game, I don’t see the Bills being able to run against the Jets’ Defense, but their passing game is also hurting with WR Josh Reed out with an ankle injury.  As a result, I expect a Jets’ victory, but since these are the Jets we’re talking about, it won’t be easy, and it won’t be pretty.  Start Jets’ QB Brett Favre, and RB Thomas Jones.  RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, and WR Chansi Stuckey all make good bye week replacements.  I’d avoid WRs Jericho Cotchery (Questionable, Shoulder) and Laveranues Coles (Questionable, thigh) unless you know that you’ll have access to your lineup shortly before gametime Sunday.  For the Bills start QB Trent Edwards (Probable, ankle) and WR Lee Evans.  TE Robert Royal can be started as a bye week replacement, but I’d steer clear of RB Marshawn Lynch for this week.  Both Defenses are adequate bye week replacements.

Detroit at Chicago - Neither of these teams can stop the pass, so neither team’s Defense should be in your starting lineup this weekend.  Lions’ QB Dan Orlovsky may have reminded viewers of George Plimpton shortly after taking over the reins from the injured Jon Kitna, but he has played better the last couple of weeks and should be on your radar as a possible bye week replacement given this favorable matchup.  WR Calvin Johnson and K Jason Hanson are both worth starting, and WRs Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey are low-end bye week replacements.  For the Bears QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, and K Robbie Gould are all worth starting.  WRs Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, and Marty Booker (Probable, knee) are all decent bye week replacements.

Baltimore at Cleveland - The Ravens’ rushing game figures to run roughshod over the Browns’ Defense this weekend, which would be great if we could only figure out which Ravens’ RBs will be healthy enough to play.  Willis McGahee is listed as Questionable with an ankle injury - don’t include him in your fantasy lineups unless you’ll have access to your starting lineup shortly before game time.  Ditto for Le’Ron McClain, who’s listed as Probable, also with an ankle injury.  Rookie Ray Rice is the healthiest of the bunch, and this week may finally be his turn to shine - he’s worth starting as a bye week replacement, as are TE Todd Heap and K Matt Stover. WR Derrick Mason and the Ravens’ Defense are both worth starting.  The Browns don’t figure to be able to run or throw against the stout Ravens’ Defense - TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards should both be in your starting lineups, if only because QB Derek Anderson will likely complete at least a few passes to somebody during the game - hopefully, somebody who isn’t wearing a Ravens’ jersey.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - When former Bucs’ coach John McKay was once asked, “What do you think of your team’s execution?”, he famously replied, “I’m all for it!”.  Although Chiefs’ coach Herm Edwards is far too diplomatic to say anything like that, the thought must have at least crossed his mind.  Even though the Chiefs have managed to win a game this season (against Denver), they may be even worse than the winless Cincinnati and Detroit squads (Stinkball league participants, take note - the Chiefs host the Bengals Week 17.  Plan accordingly!)  Tampa Bay RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WR Antonio Bryant, and the Defense should all be started this week, while QB Jeff Garcia and K Matt Bryant should be high-end bye week replacements.  For the Chiefs, start TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe if you must, but don’t expect them to lead your team to victory this week (or any week)!

Green Bay at Tennessee - Tennessee figures to spend most of the game rushing against the Packers’ Defense, and Green Bay figures to spend most of the game throwing against the Titans’ Defense.  The Titans’ run Offense figures to be successful, but Green Bay’s pass Offense figures to have a tougher time against the Titans’ pass Defense, and that’s why I like the Titans to remain undefeated.  For the Packers TE Donald Lee and WR Greg Jennings are the only players I’d start this week - hopefully, you have better options this week at QB than Aaron Rodgers and better options at RB than Ryan Grant.  For the Titans RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson and TE Bo Scaife are worth starting.  Both Defenses worth starting in a game where the winning team may have trouble scoring 21 points.

Miami at Denver - This game may not feature Dan Marino and John Elway, but it still figures to be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend.  Dolphins who should be started include QB Chad Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Greg Camarillo, and K Dan Carpenter.  Start-worthy Broncos include QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  RBs Michael Pittman and Ryan Torain are also low-end bye week replacements.

Philadelphia at Seattle - The Eagles have the misfortune of playing in the NFC East, football’s toughest division top to bottom bar none.  Seattle has the misfortune of being a bad football team when injured QB Matt Hasselbeck is out, which will be the case once again for this matchup.  For Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense should all be started.  For the Seahawks the list of fantasy starters is a short one:  TE John Carlson and WR Bobby Engram.  Enough said.

Dallas at NY Giants  - Both starting QBs in this game have a Super Bowl ring; that’s about all that Cowboys’ QB Brad Johnson and Giants’ QB Eli Manning have in common.  Johnson is the proverbial “X factor” in this game - if he plays well, this could be a very interesting game with a close final score.  However, my bet is that won’t happen, and the Giants will win rather handily.  For the Cowboys WR Terrell Owens is the only must-start, but WRs Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton are also worth starting if your other WRs have lousy matchups this week.  For the Giants QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Plaxico Burress should all be starting, and WRs Amani Toomer & “Other” Steve Smith and the Giants’ Defense are good bye week replacements.  The Giants kicking situation remains muddled, so continue to stay away.

Atlanta at Oakland - Two young, inconsistent QBs with strong rushing games behind them suggest that the fantasy options for this game are limited.  For the Falcons RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White are the only must-starts, while QB Matt Ryan, WR Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam are all decent bye week replacements.  For the Raiders RB Justin Fargas and TE Zach Miller are the only players you’d want to start, although QB JaMarcus Russell can also be considered a low-end bye week replacement.  Avoid both Defenses, even with the question marks at quarterback for both teams.

New England at Indianapolis - Both of these teams have been set back this season by serious injuries to key players.  For the Patriots it’s obvious I’m referring to QB Tom Brady.  It may be less obvious that I’m referring to Colts’ RB Joseph Addai - without a rushing game to keep opposing Defenses honest, Peyton Manning has struggled to put up the consistently great fantasy numbers we’ve all come to expect from him over the years.  For the Patriots WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss and K Stephen Gostkowski are the only players worth starting this week, but if you’re in need of a bye week replacement or two, QB Matt Cassel, RBs Kevin Faulk & BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and TE Ben Watson all are worthwhile options.  Addai is still listed as Questionable with his hamstring injury, but all indications are that he will attempt to play this week.  Assuming he does, Addai, Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Marvin Harrison & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started.  I’d avoid WR Reggie Wayne (Questionable, knee), and I’d also avoid both Defenses.

Pittsburgh at Washington - ESPN has announced that it will air taped interviews with presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain Monday evening.  This figures to be a waste of air time, as it’s hard to believe that even undecided voters will hear anything new during these interviews that will help push them off the fence.  While the game itself will not involve focus groups or spin control, it figures to be infinitely more interesting, especially if you like strong Defenses.  For the Steelers only TE Heath Miller and the Defense should be in your starting lineup this week.  For the Redskins only TE Chris Cooley and the Defense should be in your starting lineup.  For all the other positions, hopefully you have better matchups this week; if not, sit back and enjoy the game!

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 9: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Francisco.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Philp Rivers

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Deuce McAllister (you may need to replace him for more than just this week!), LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Chris Chambers, Victor Jackson

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates

Kickers

John Kasay, Taylor Melhaff, Nate Kaeding, Joe Nedney

Defenses

Carolina

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Dan Orlovsky (SPEC), Gus Frerotte (SPEC)

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Kolby Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ted Ginn (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Josh Brown (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Robbie Gould (SPEC)

Defenses

Cleveland (ST), Atlanta (ST)
Until next time,

The Sherpa

I’ll admit it - the Cowboys were my preseason pick to win Super Bowl XLIII.  However, St. Louis’ manhandling last week of backup QB Brad Johnson and the Cowboys demonstrated how most teams’ success depends heavily on the health and ability of their starting QB.  The Cowboys’ record is currently 4-3.  The only games on their remaining schedule that appear to be “gimmes” are home games against the 49ers and Seahawks.  Assuming that it will take 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC this year, the Cowboys would have to go 4-3 in 7 games against the following teams:  Buccaneers, Giants (twice), Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.

While I expect Brad Johnson to play better the next two weeks than he did last week against the Rams, given the injuries to starting QB Tony Romo and several injuries in the secondary, I think the best the Cowboys can hope for is a split versus the Buccaneers and Giants.  If the Cowboys should lose both of those games, their season is all but over, even if Romo comes back 100% healthy and plays like a Pro Bowl QB - I can’t see the Cowboys going 4-1 against the Giants, Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 8’s games:

Tampa Bay at Dallas - Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia played well last weekend against a Seattle Defense that spends way too much time on the field, and he figures to do the same this weekend against an undermanned Dallas Defense.  Start Garcia, along with RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WR Antonio Bryant, and K Matt Bryant.  Stay away from RB Warrick Dunn, who is Questionable this week with a back injury.  For Dallas I believe QB Brad Johnson will play much better this week after having a full week of practice with the first-team Offense and without the shadow of Tony Romo looming over him on the sideline.  Then again, Tampa’s Defense is also much better than St. Louis’, so I would start Johnson only as a bye week replacement.  RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk should all be started.  I’d expect a fairly high scoring game (i.e. - something along the lines of 28-24), so I wouldn’t start either Defense this week.

Washington at Detroit - With both Halloween and Election Day coming up shortly, it will be interesting to see whether Redskins’ RB Clinton Portis shows up this week dressed as “Kid Bro Sweets” or “Prime Minister Ya Mon”.  Chances are that both of Portis’ alter-egos could rush for 100+ yards against a porous Lions’ Defense that can’t stop either the run or the pass.  Portis is listed as Questionable again for this week with a hip injury, but given that he was listed the same way with the same injury last week and still managed to rush for 175 yards against the Browns, he’s worth starting again this week.  Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Redskins’ Defense should also be started this week, and WR Antwaan Randle El is once again a legitimate bye week replacement.  Not much to like on the Lions’ side this week - WRs Calvin Johnson & Mike Furrey should be started, and RB Kevin Smith is a decent bye week replacement if you need one, but other than that, I’d stay far, far away.

Oakland at Baltimore - The A’s and the Orioles might play a higher scoring game than their football counterparts.  I suspect the Ravens will be able to run the ball on the Raiders, and that should result in a victory for the home team.  For Oakland TE Zach Miller is the only player worth starting, and even that might be a stretch.  For the Ravens RB Willis McGahee is the only player I’d start, although RB Le`Ron McClain and TE Todd Heap are adequate bye week replacements.  Feel free to start either Defense, but keep both Kickers out of your starting lineup.

Arizona at Carolina - Arizona’s Offense reminds me of the chicken and egg argument:  do they run so little because they pass so well, or do they pass so often because they run so poorly?  I suspect it’s the former, which suggests that RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower may receive more carries than usual this week against a Panthers’ Defense that is stronger against the pass than against the run.  Nevertheless, QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald should definitely be started this week.  James, Hightower, and WR Steve Breaston are good bye week replacements if you need them.  The Cardinals’ Defense doesn’t play particularly well against either the run or the pass, so Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, & K John Kasay are all good starts this week.  Neither Defense should be in your starting lineup.

St. Louis at New England - Things change very quickly in the NFL.  Two weeks ago the Rams were 0-4 and looking at another Top 5 draft pick in 2009.  Then, a funny thing happened (unless you’re a Redskins’ or Cowboys’ fan) - the Rams pulled themselves up off the floor (unlike Kimbo Slice) and defeated Washington and Dallas in successive weeks.  Now, at 2-4 and with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, the Rams are being mentioned as potential playoff contenders in the NFC West - they’re currently two games behind the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals, and two of their remaining games are against the Cardinals.  I expect the Patriots to win a fairly high-scoring game this week, but Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown should all be started.  RB Steven Jackson is currently listed as Questionable with a thigh injury, but if he’s able to play, add him to the start list.  For the Patriots WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss and K Stephen Gostkowski are must-starts.  If RB Sammy Morris’ knee allows him to play (he’s currently listed as Questionable), he should also be started.  If not, then RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a decent bye week replacement.  QB Matt Cassel and TE Ben Watson are also adequate bye week replacements.  Don’t start either Defense this week unless you’re forced to.

Buffalo at Miami - This game gets my vote for this week’s “upset special” - I believe the Dolphins will be able to defeat the Bills.  I would say “take it to the bank”, but given the recent financial crisis, you may be better off putting it underneath your mattress.  Bills’ QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell are all worth starting this week.  For the Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter are all good starts, while QB Chad Pennington and TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are decent bye week replacements.

Atlanta at Philadelphia - Philadelphia plays host to both an NFL game and a World Series game in the same complex on Sunday - I’m not sure the City of Brotherly Love can handle that much excitement in one day.  I’d love to see FOX announcer Joe Buck cover the football game in the afternoon, then head down the road to cover the baseball game in the evening, but I’m sure that won’t happen.  Since Buck claims not to enjoy baseball that much, perhaps FOX should do us all a favor and find someone else to share the booth with Tim McCarver (Bill O’Reilly, perhaps?).  Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective for the Falcons as they go up against Philly’s tough Defense.  WR Roddy White is the only Falcon I’d start this week, although Matt Ryan is a low-end bye week replacement for the truly desperate.  Quite a different story for the Eagles - QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (yes, he’s back!), WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Eagles’ Defense should all be started.  TE L.J. Smith is an adequate bye week replacement.  WR Kevin Curtis is also back this week, but I’d leave him on your bench unless you’re feeling really lucky.

Kansas City at NY Jets - Kansas City has become the fantasy football equivalent of a wasteland, if not a Superfund site.  TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are still worth starting under the assumption that third-string Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen will have to complete at least 15 passes to somebody, but neither of these players will lead your fantasy team to victory this week.  For the Jets I’d avoid starting WR Laveranues Coles, who is listed as Probable in spite of having a thigh injury to go with the concussion he suffered last week against the Raiders.  If this game gets out of hand early, as I suspect it will, the Jets will likely give Coles the rest of the afternoon off, which would be great for him, but not so great for your fantasy team.  Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre (I wonder if former Jets’ QB Chad Pennington called the Raiders before their game last week with the Jets), RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jericho Cotchery, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense.  RB Leon Washington is also a good bye week replacement given the favorable matchup.

San Diego at New Orleans - If you think West Coast teams have a tough time playing well when they travel to the East Coast to play a game at 1pm Eastern Time, how much worse will things get for the Chargers when they travel an extra 3,000 miles/5 time zones east to play in the NFL’s annual game in London?  To be fair, the Saints will also be feeling the effects of playing in the U.K. (will the fans cheer loudest when the kickers take the field?), but throw in the possibility of a wet field (remember last year’s Giants’-Dolphins’ game?), and I don’t think this will be the offensive shootout many fantasy experts are predicting.  Still, there are a number of players on both teams worth starting.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should be started, and WR Malcom Floyd is a decent bye week replacement.  Stay away from WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) even if he plays.  For the Saints start QB Drew Brees, WRs Marques Colston (also back this week) & Lance Moore & Devery Henderson, and K Taylor Melhaff.  Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if his impending suspension doesn’t take effect this week.  Stay away from RB Reggie Bush (Out - knee) and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia).

Cincinnati at Houston - Bengals’ fans are undoubtedly familiar with Joe the Plumber, but given Carson Palmer’s potentially career-threatening injury, they’re probably wishing Jake (the) Plummer were now quarterbacking their team rather than Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick.  While the Texans’ pass Defense may offer a bit more resistance than the Yale Bulldogs, Fitzpatrick is actually a decent bye week replacement if your options are limited.  Fitzpatrick is unlikely to spread the wealth around - WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco and K Shayne Graham are the only Bengals who should definitely be in starting lineups this week.  Like Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson is best left as a bye week replacement for those with limited options.  For the Texans RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should all be started this week.  QB Matt Schaub, RB Ahman Green, WR Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense can all be used as bye week replacements.

Cleveland at Jacksonville  - Browns’ coach Romeo Crennel has requested that his players refrain from discussing politics in the locker room, but given Cleveland’s performance so far this year, their fans may rather receive three straight hours of robo-calls than be forced to watch a Browns’ game.  This week figures to be no different.  WR Braylon Edwards is the only Browns’ player I’d start this week, although QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis are both low-end bye week replacements.  For the Jags QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, and the Defense can all be started with confidence.  Add WR Matt Jones to the list if he isn’t suspended prior to Sunday’s game.

Seattle at San Francisco - Not much to like about this game from a fantasy perspective.  TE John Carlson is the only Seahawks’ player worth starting, although RBs Julius Jones & Maurice Morris can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate.  The only 49ers who should definitely be started are QB J.T. O`Sullivan and RB Frank Gore, but TE Vernon Davis, WR Isaac Bruce, K Joe Nedney, and the Defense can also serve as adequate bye week replacements.  I’d stay away from WR Josh Morgan, who’s listed as Questionable with a groin injury.

NY Giants at Pittsburgh - While there are some undeniably talented players on both teams’ Offenses, this may be the only game all year where I can’t recommend starting any Offensive players from either team in good conscience - the two Defenses are that strong, and both are worth starting.  By the way, I had to laugh when I read how “polite” WR Santonio Holmes was to the police when they pulled over his SUV the other day and smelled pot in his vehicle.  Holmes supposedly handed over several cigars containing marijuana to the cops - I guess we should consider him a “roll” model?

Indianapolis at Tennessee - Each week it seems I make at least one recommendation that goes totally against fantasy football’s golden rule to “always start your studs”.  Last week I recommended benching Dolphins’ RB Ronnie Brown for his unfavorable matchup against the Ravens.  What did Brown do for you?  How about 13 carries for 27 yards and no touchdowns - deal or no deal?  I bring this up not to pat myself on the back (well, maybe a little bit), but mainly to stress the point - matchups matter.  This week’s case in point - Colts’ QB Peyton Manning.  Facing a strong Titans’ pass Defense and with no running game to speak of to fall back on, I wouldn’t start Manning this week if I had another QB on my roster with a more favorable matchup.  TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne are the only Colts who should be in your starting lineup this week.  The Titans’ passing Offense will also be yardage-challenged, but the Colts’ poor rushing Defense suggests that RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson should both be started.  If you’re running low on bye week replacement options, consider Titans’ TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas, and the Titans’ Defense.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Not too many injuries of note this week, although those of you who were holding onto Laurence Maroney in hopes he would return later this season will undoubtedly be looking for another Running Back.

4 teams have their byes Week 8: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Adrian Peterson

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen, Donald Lee, Visanthe Shiancoe

Kickers

Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Ryan Longwell

Defenses

Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (LT), J.T. O`Sullivan (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Jeff Garcia (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Cassel (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC).

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Jamaal Charles (LT), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (ST), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Leon Washington (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Bryant (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Josh Morgan (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Steve Smith (NYG version) (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Patrick Crayton (ST), Ike Hilliard (ST), Hank Baskett (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Josh Reed (SPEC), Javon Walker (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis (LT), John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Billy Miller (ST), David Martin (SPEC), Robert Royal (SPEC), L.J. Smith (SPEC), Vernon Davis (SPEC)

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Rian Lindell (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Dave Carpenter (LT), Shayne Graham (SPEC)

Defenses

Tennessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Buffalo (LT), Jacksonville (LT), Houston (ST), Indianapolis (SPEC), Oakland (SPEC), New England (SPEC), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be on The Local Sports Edge show today.  The show airs on WVIN, 98.3 FM in Bath, NY.  I’ll be on with hosts Joel Oriend and Mickey Stone for approximately 15 minutes starting at 12:30pm.

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

If you have Sirius Radio, tune in for tonight’s Sirius Fantasy Football Show.  The show airs from 8-11pm Eastern Time, and I’ll be on with hosts John Hansen and Adam Kaplan around 9:30pm.

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 7’s games:

Dallas at St. Louis - Will Tony Romo play or won’t he?  Unless you’re the Tony Romo owner in your league, it doesn’t really matter.  RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk should all be started.  If Romo starts, he should obviously be in your lineup unless you happen to have a second QB who’s healthy and has a favorable matchup.  Just don’t expect Romo to throw for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs.  If Brad Johnson gets the start at QB for the Cowboys, he’s an adequate bye week replacement facing a weak St. Louis Defense.  For the Rams RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt remain the only “must starts”.  QB Marc Bulger, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown are all good bye week replacements for what figures to be a high-scoring game.  Avoid both Defenses.

Baltimore at Miami - There’s not much to like for either team this week from a fantasy perspective.  TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason are the only Ravens I’d recommend starting this week, although QB Joe Flacco is a low-end bye week replacement.  It’s even worse for Miami:  TE Anthony Fasano is the only Dolphin I’d recommend starting.  It sounds like heresy to recommend benching RB Ronnie Brown this week after the season he’s had so far (how many of you had him on your Bench in Week 3 against New England?), but I’d recommend doing just that if you have another RB with a better matchup.  Both Defenses are worth starting.

San Francisco at NY Giants - RB Frank Gore is the only 49er who should be in your starting lineup this week, although TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson, and K Joe Nedney are all adequate bye week replacements. For New York QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Plaxico Burress, and the Defense are all worth starting, and WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith are decent bye week replacements.  Once again, I’d avoid the Giants’ Kicker this week, since I have no idea who it will be (again, I’d guess John Carney, but there’s no need for you to guess in setting your lineup - you have plenty of other options this week).

New Orleans at Carolina - Lots of question marks this week for the Saints.  QB Drew Brees and K Taylor Melhaff are the only definite fantasy starters this week for New Orleans.  RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR Marques Colston are all listed as questionable for this week - if any of these three play, they are worth starting.  If Bush doesn’t play, RB Deuce McAllister becomes an adequate bye week replacement.  If Shockey doesn’t play, TE Billy Miller becomes an adequate bye week replacement.  If Colston remains on the sideline, WRs David Patten, Lance Moore, and Devery Henderson are all low-end bye week replacement options.  Bottom line - unless you’ll be in a position to monitor the game-day decisions, stay away from this mess.  The picture is somewhat clearer for the Panthers:  QB Jake Delhomme, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay should all be started, while RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart should be in your lineup only if you are forced to start them.  TE Jeff King is a low-end bye week replacement.  Given the uncertainty re: the Saints’ Offense, I’d avoid both Defenses if possible.

Tennessee at Kansas City - Tennessee returns from a bye week to face one of the weakest teams in the league, especially against the rush.  RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas, and the Titans’ Defense are all worth starting this week.  QB Kerry Collins is a decent bye week replacement, as is WR Brandon Jones, who figures to have a fair number of passes thrown his way with WRs Justin Gage and Justin McCareins both potentially sidelined.  With suspended RB Larry Johnson out this week, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are the only Chiefs worth starting.

Minnesota at Chicago - This is a difficult game to analyze from a fantasy perspective.  My first instinct was to stay away from Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson and Bears’ RB Matt Forte (see Rodney Brown, above), given the strong run Defenses they’ll be going up against this week.  However, after having thought about it some more, I believe both teams will be able to throw the ball just effectively enough to open up the running game for their star rushers.  Thus, I’d start Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, and K Ryan Longwell for the Vikings; QB Gus Frerotte and WR Bobby Wade are also good bye week replacements.  For the Bears, in addition to Forte I’d also start K Robbie Gould, while considering QB Kyle Orton and TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark as good bye week replacement options.  I’d stay away from the Bears’ WRs this week given injury concerns, although if he plays, WR Rashied Davis is an adequate bye week replacement.  Avoid both Defenses.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Avoid Steelers’ RB Willie Parker due to injury concerns, even if he is able to start against a weak Bengals’ Defense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Steelers’ Defense are all must-starts this week, and RB Mewelde Moore is a good bye week replacement if Parker is unable to play.  For the Bengals WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Johnson are the only players worth starting, although TE Reggie Kelly can also be used if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.

San Diego at Buffalo - Reports of the Chargers’ demise were premature, as they demonstrated last week against the Patriots.  Still, in a battle between two evenly matched teams, I think Buffalo will be able to throw more on the Chargers’ Defense than the Chargers will be able to on the Bills’ Defense, leading to a Bills’ victory.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding are all worth starting.  WR Vincent Jackson is a good bye week replacement, but stay away from WR Chris Chambers, whose health is still in question.  For the Bills QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell should all be started.  TE Robert Royal, WR Josh Reed, and the Bills’ Defense can also be started if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.

Detroit at Houston - When is the last time a 1-4 team has been favored by 9 1/2 points?  One of the keys to fantasy football success is to avoid giving too much weight to individual plays/games.  Case in point:  the enduring image of Lions’ QB Dan Orlovsky from last week’s game against the Vikings is the play on which he ran out of his own team’s end zone and continued along the end line for 10+ steps without realizing he’d just given the Vikings a safety.  If that’s all that comes to mind when you hear Orlovsky’s name, there’s no chance you’d include him in your fantasy lineup any time soon, even if he throws for 300+ yards his next three games.  While that’s unlikely to happen, I maintain that going against a middling Texans’ Defense, Orlovsky is actually a decent bye week replacement this week.  WR Calvin Johnson is the Lions’ only “must start”, but RB Rudi Johnson, WRs Mike Furrey & Shaun McDonald, and K Jason Hanson are also decent bye week replacements.  For the Texans QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should all be started, while WR Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense are all serviceable bye week replacements.

Cleveland at Washington - Cleveland looked great last Monday night against the Giants, while the Redskins appeared to be sleepwalking through their loss Sunday to the Rams.  Does this mean that the Browns have turned the corner?  Does this mean the wheels are going to fall off the Redskins’ wagon?  The answer to both questions is an emphatic “no!”.  The Browns don’t figure to be able to run much on the Redskins, so QB Derek Anderson, TE Kellen Winslow (assuming he’s healthy enough to play), and WR Braylon Edwards should all be started.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis (assuming he’s healthy enough to play), TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, and K Shaun Suisham are all worth starting.  WR Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins’ Defense are also worthy bye week replacements.

NY Jets at Oakland  - The Jets figure to be able to both run and throw nearly at will against a Raiders’ Defense that spends far too much time on the field due to an inept Offense.  Accordingly, QB Brett Favre, WRs Jericho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles, and the Jets’ Defense are all worth starting.  RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, and K Jay Feely are all good bye week replacements.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting, although QB JaMarcus Russell can be used as a bye week replacement if you’re desperate.  Although the Raiders’ RBs have talent, the combination of a backfield by committee and the Jets’ strong run Defense make all of them unappealing options this week.  The Raiders’ WRs have struggled mightily all season; expect that to continue this week.

Indianapolis at Green Bay - This is a unique matchup:  two weak run Offenses going against two Defenses that can’t stop the run, and two strong passing attacks challenging two strong pass Defenses.  My guess is that the Packers will have more success running the ball than the Colts, which should lead to a Green Bay victory.  For Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started.  RB Dominic Rhodes is an adequate bye week replacement.  For Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be started.

Seattle at Tampa Bay - Seattle’s Offense was a mess with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm (due to injuries to his WRs) and a disaster last week with Charlie Frye calling signals.  This week is Seneca Wallace’s turn to show what he’s got - expect something closer to the disaster end of the spectrum.  TE John Carlson is the only Seahawk I’d consider starting this week, although RB Julius Jones and WR Bobby Engram can be used as bye week replacements if you’re really desperate.  Tampa Bay’s QB situation has been unstable too, although Brian Griese and Jeff Garcia have been better from a fantasy standpoint than their Seahawk counterparts.  RBs Earnest Graham & Warrick Dunn, TE Alex Smith, and the Buccaneers’ Defense are all worth starting this week.  QB Jeff Garcia, WRs Antonio Bryant (if he’s well enough to play) & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant can all be used as bye week replacements.

Denver at New England - This game hinges on how well Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel plays - if he’s able to do an adequate job, this could be an interesting, high-scoring game.  If not, you’ll probably be able turn off the TV early Monday night and catch up on some sleep.  I’m betting he’ll be able to move the Patriot’s Offense against the Broncos’ suspect Defense.  For Denver I’d start QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater.  Add TE Tony Scheffler to that list if he’s well enough to play.  In spite of his success last week against the Jaguars, I don’t like RB Michael Pittman as anything more than a bye week replacement.  Ditto for WR Eddie Royal, assuming he’s well enough to play.  If you disagree with my assessment of Cassel (i.e. - you think the Broncos will be able to contain him), then you may also want to start their Defense as a bye week replacement.  For the Patriots I’d start TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski.  I’d also be confident using QB Matt Cassel as a bye week replacement.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Injuries to Quarterbacks Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, and Carson Palmer will doubtlessly send many fantasy football team owners scrambling to the free agent/waiver wire this week - I’ll give some suggestions below on the best replacements to target if you’re among them.

4 teams have their byes Week 7: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb

Running Backs

Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Correll Buckhalter (I’m assuming you’ve already removed Brian Westbrook from your starting lineup).

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald (again, I’m assuming you’ve already removed Anquan Boldin from your starting lineup), Roddy White, Matt Jones, DeSean Jackson.

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis, L.J. Smith

Kickers

Neil Rackers, Jason Elam, Josh Scobee, David Akers

Defenses

Jacksonville, Philadelphia

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Trent Edwards (LT), Gus Frerotte (LT), Dan Orlovsky (ST), Chad Pennington (ST),  Brad Johnson (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Marc Bulger (ST), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC)

Running Backs

Dominic Rhodes (ST),  Kevin Smith (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ike Hilliard (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Sean McDonald (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Justin Gage (LT), Ted Ginn (SPEC), Steve Smith (NY Giants version) (SPEC), Donnie Avery (SPEC), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Ronald Curry (SPEC)

Tight Ends

John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Bo Scaife (LT), Donald Lee (LT), Desmond Clark (ST), David Martin (SPEC),  Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Shayne Graham (LT), Stephen Gostkowski (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Rian Lindell (ST), Olindo Mare (ST), Joe Nedney (ST), Sebastian Janikowski (ST)

Defenses

Texans (vs Det), Patriots (vs Den), Dolphins (vs Bal), Redskins (vs Cle)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 6’s games:

Baltimore at Indianapolis - Baltimore should be able to run against the Colts’ Defense, so RBs Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain should be started. The Ravens figure to have a harder time passing, so I’d stay away from QB Joe Flacco.  However, TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason should both be started.  Kicker Matt Stover should not be in your lineup.  The Colts figure to have a tough time running against the Ravens’ Defense, so I would not start RB Joseph Addai this week if my other RB candidates had better matchups.  QB Peyton Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started this week.  I would keep WR Anthony Gonzalez on the bench - even if he does play, I just don’t trust players in their first game back from a concussion.  I would start Baltimore’s Defense on the theory that Peyton Manning will be forced to throw on 75%+ of the Colts’ offensive plays, which should lead to at least a few sacks and interceptions.  Do not start the Colts’ Defense.

Miami at Houston - Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington is a capable bye week replacement.  RB Ronnie Brown, TE Anthony Fassano, and K Dan Carpenter should all be started this week.  TE David Martin and WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn are also worthy bye week replacements.  Texans’ QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WR Andre Johnson, and K Kris Brown can all be started with confidence this week, and WR Kevin Walter is also a good choice as a bye week replacement.  Neither Defense should be in your starting lineup in what figures to be a high-scoring game.

Carolina at Tampa Bay - Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, TE Jeff King, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay are all worth starting in this matchup.  For Tampa Bay RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WRs Antonio Bryant & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant are all worth starting.  RB Warrick Dunn also makes a decent bye week replacement.  I’d stay away from the Bucs’ QB situation, regardless of whether Brian Griese or Jeff Garcia ends up starting, and I’d also continue to avoid WR Joey Galloway, whose return date remains uncertain.  While I expect both teams to pile up decent yardage stats, I still expect a fairly low-scoring game, so both teams’ Defenses are worth starting, especially Carolina’s.

St. Louis at Washington - While it’s hard to look at the Rams’ performance so far this season and think of any of their players as “must starts”, I would still put RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt in that category.  In spite of the Redskins’ fast start their pass Defense has been mediocre, so I’d consider Rams’ QB Marc Bulger a worthwhile bye week replacement, as is K Josh Brown.  For the Redskins, what’s not to like?  QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, and K Shaun Suisham should all be started.  WR Antwaan Randle El is an adequate bye week replacement.  Definitely leave the Rams’ Defense out of your starting lineup (as if you were really considering that possibility), but the Redskins’ Defense is an adequate bye week replacement.

Detroit at Minnesota - The Lions are a mess right now (to put it nicely), and you want to have as few of their players in your starting lineup as possible.  I’d stay far, far away from their QB and RB situations this week, regardless of who starts.  I’d also avoid WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable with a knee injury) if I had healthier alternatives with more favorable matchups.  WR Roy Williams is the only Lion I’d even consider for as a starter this week.  For the Vikings expect RB Adrian Peterson to bounce back in a big way from his disappointing game last Monday night against the Saints.  Peterson, WR Bernard Berrian (assuming he’s healthy enough to start), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, K Ryan Longwell, and the Vikings’ Defense should all be started this week.  QB Gus Frerotte and WR Bobby Wade are also adequate bye week replacements.

Chicago at Atlanta - This figures to be a fascinating game, at least from a fantasy perspective.  Both teams figure to be able to throw the ball against the opposing Defense, and the Bears figure to be able to rush against the Falcons’ Defense.  The big question - will the Falcons’ dominant running game be able to move the ball against the Bears’ strong Defense?  The answer will determine the winner of this game - I believe they will, resulting in a Falcons’ victory in a high-scoring game.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TE Greg Olsen, WR Rashied Davis, and K Robbie Gould.  TE Desmond Clark also makes an adequate bye week replacement.  For the Falcons QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White (sounds like his “head injury” sustained in practice the other day is not too serious), and K Jason Elam should all be started.  RB Jerious Norwood and WR Michael Jenkins are decent bye week replacements.  Stay away from both teams’ Defenses.

Cincinnati at NY Jets - Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer’s health continues to be a concern - he’s listed as Questionable on this week’s injury report with his elbow injury.  Still, assuming he starts, he’s worth starting this week, if only because the Bengals don’t figure to be able to run the ball against the Jets’ Defense.  WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco, and K Shayne Graham should also be in starting lineups this week.  Stay away from the Bengals’ RBs this week.  For the Jets QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, and WRs Jericho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles (Questionable with a thigh injury, but expect him to play) should all be started.  TE Justin Keller, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense are all capable bye week replacements.

Oakland at New Orleans - Although the Raiders figure to be able to move the ball against the Saints’ Defense, TE Zach Miller and K Sebastian Janikowski are the only Raiders that should definitely be started this week.  Improving QB JaMarcus Russell is an adequate bye week replacement, as is RB Justin Fargas, who’s returning from a groin injury.  I’d avoid RB Darren McFadden (Questionable with a toe injury) and the Raiders’ WRs.  However, if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement at WR, Johnny Lee Higgins and Ronald Curry are the best Raiders’ candidates.  For the Saints QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush are the only must-starts.  The Saints’ WR situation is also muddled - Lance Moore and Devery Henderson are your best bets if you need a bye week replacement this week.  New Kicker Taylor Melhaff should be an adequate bye week replacement.  Keep WR Marques Colston (Questionable with his thumb injury) out of your lineup unless you get news that he’s definitely starting.  Avoid both teams’ Defenses this week.

Jacksonville at Denver - For Jacksonville QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones, and K Josh Scobee are all worth starting this week.  For Denver QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater should definitely be started.  RBs Andre Hall & Michael Pittman and WR Brandon Stokley are all worthy bye week replacements.  Once again, I’d stay away from WR Eddie Royal and his injured ankle, even if he does manage to play on Sunday.  Neither Defense should be started.

Dallas at Arizona - Two high-powered offenses vs. two mediocre Defenses - it should all add up to a lot of high-scoring fantasy options.  For the Cowboys QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WR Terrell Owens, WR Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk should all be started.  RB Felix Jones is a high-end bye week replacement.  For the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WR Larry Fitzgerald, and K Neil Rackers should all be started.  WR Steve Breaston is an adequate bye week replacement.  Avoid both Defenses.

Philadelphia at San Francisco  - The combination of injuries and fairly strong Defenses figures to keep this a low-scoring game.  RB Brian Westbrook is definitely out for the Eagles, so make sure he’s out of your lineup too.  QB Donovan McNabb, RB Correll Buckhalter, and WR DeSean Jackson should all be started.  TE L.J. Smith is a low-end bye week replacement; WRs Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis should be avoided.  For the 49ers this should be the week that the clock strikes midnight for QB J.T. O’Sullivan - I wouldn’t start him this week unless I had no other alternatives.  RB Frank Gore is the only 49ers offensive player who should definitely be started this week, although TE Vernon Davis and WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce should be adequate bye week replacements.  Both Defenses are worth starting this week.

Green Bay at Seattle - This game could be labeled the Battle of the Banged-up Quarterbacks.  Assuming that Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder sprain doesn’t prevent him from playing, he should be started, along with RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.  WR Jordy Nelson is an adequate bye week replacement.  For the Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck is also worth starting, assuming that his knee permits him to play.  RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WR Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare should also be started.  Keep both Defenses out of your starting lineup for this game.

New England at San Diego - Oh, how the mighty have struggled.  Injuries are obviously partly to blame, but not entirely.  Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel should have a big day and is a high-end bye week replacement.  TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski all should be started.  Avoid the Patriots’ muddled RB situation at all costs.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Questionable with a toe injury), TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding should all be started.  I’d avoid the Chargers’ Wide Receivers this week due to injury concerns.  Both Defenses are low-end bye week replacements at best.

NY Giants at Cleveland - The Giants appear to be hitting on all cylinders at this point, but keep in mind that their schedule has been relatively favorable to this point.  QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Plaxico Burress, and the Giants’ Defense are all must-starts.  WR Amani Toomer is a capable bye week replacement, and TE Kevin Boss is also a bye week replacement candidate if you’re desperate.  Avoid the Giants’ Kickers, since it’s still not clear who will play (again, my money would be on John Carney).  For the Browns it’s hard to recommend any of their players as fantasy starters in this matchup, but if you must, RB Jamal Lewis and WR Braylon Edwards are the most attractive options.  Add TE Kellen Winslow to the list if he’s able to overcome his mystery illness and play.  QB Derek Anderson and WR Donte Stallworth are bye week replacements only for the truly desperate.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 6: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Trent Edwards, Ben Roethlisberger, Kerry Collins

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, LenDale White, Chris Johnson

Wide Receivers

Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes

Tight Ends

Robert Royal, Tony Gonzalez, Heath Miller

Kickers

Rian Lindell, Jeff Reed, Rob Bironas

Defenses

Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton (LT), Chad Pennington (ST), Gus Frerotte (ST), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC)

Running Backs

Justin Fargas (ST),  Kevin Smith (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ike Hilliard (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Devery Henderson (ST), Bobby Engram (LT), Amani Toomer (ST), Brandon Stokley (ST), Antonio Chatman (ST), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Ted Ginn (SPEC), Rashied Davis (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Johnnie Lee Higgins (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Zach Miller (LT), Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), David Martin (LT), Donald Lee (LT), Marcedes Lewis (ST), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Stephen Gostkowski (LT), Shaun Suisham (LT), Josh Scobee (LT), Ryan Longwell (ST), Sebastian Janikowski (ST)

Defenses

Colts (vs Bal), Bucs (vs Car)

Until next time,

The Sherpa