Friday Morning Quarterback - Week 5 Predictions (10/3/08)
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 5’s games:
Chicago at Detroit - Chicago’s offense finally appears to be clicking under QB Kyle Orton, who makes a great bye week pickup this week and should be starting. RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WR Rashied Davis, and K Robbie Gould should all be started too. For the Lions the good news is that the organization finally had the sense to part ways with former team president/GM Matt Millen; the bad news is that the firing does nothing to improve the quality of the Lions’ defensive (or is that defen-sieve?) players on the field in the short run. QB Jon Kitna, WR Calvin Johnson, and K Jason Hanson should all be started this week. I would not start RBs Rudi Johnson and Kevin Smith this week unless I were desperate for a bye week replacement - the situation is just too unsettled, and minimizing risk is one of the guiding principles of fantasy football. Similarly, WR Roy Williams (Questionable with a knee injury) should not be started this week if you have healthier options - I would also avoid his potential replacements (WRs Mike Furrey & Sean McDonald). Keep both Defenses out of your lineups this week too.
Atlanta at Green Bay - Hard to know what to make of this game with the status of Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers up in the air (he’s Questionable with an injury to his throwing shoulder). There are no questions about Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan’s health, but plenty of questions remain about his ability to lead an offense against a strong defense. He’s an adequate bye week replacement if you need one, but I would avoid starting him if I had other options. RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam should all be started. WR Michael Jenkins and the Falcons’ Defense can both be started if you’re in dire need of bye week replacements - hopefully, that isn’t the case. For the Packers RB Ryan Grant appears to be healthy and may get extra work against a porous Falcons’ Defense - he should be started, along with TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby. I’d avoid QB Aaron Rodgers, WRs James Jones & Jordy Nelson, and the Packers’ Defense.
Indianapolis at Houston - This game has the potential to be a shootout, so I’d avoid both Defenses. For the Colts QB Peyton Manning; RB Joseph Addai; TE Dallas Clark; WRs Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, & Marvin Harrison; and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started. For the Texans QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown should all be started.
Washington at Philadelphia - The Redskins come into this game a lot healthier than the Eagles, and I expect them to win this game in spite of the Eagles’ strong Defense. QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, and K Shaun Suisham should all be started. WR Antwaan Randle El is an adequate bye week replacement. For the Eagles I disagree with the conventional wisdom that suggests “always start your stars if they’re playing” - even if Brian Westbrook plays, I would avoid starting him unless I had no other options - I have my doubts as to how effective he’ll be if his ankle injury is still limiting his cutting ability. However, QB Donovan McNabb, WR DeSean Jackson, and K David Akers should be started. TE L.J. Smith and WR Reggie Brown are adequate bye week replacements, but I’d avoid RB Correll Buckhalter given Westbrook’s uncertain status. I’d also avoid both Defenses.
Seattle at NY Giants - This is also a tough game to analyze, given that both teams are coming off their bye week, the Giants will be without suspended star WR Plaxico Burress, and the status of Seahawks’ WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram is sill up in the air. For the Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, and K Olindo Mare should all be started. WR Billy McMullen and the Seahawks’ Defense are both adequate bye week fill-ins if you need them. I’d avoid starting Branch or Engram. The Giants have a recent history of playing poorly in their first game following their bye week, but keep in mind that “fact” is based on a statistically insignificant number of observations and should have no influence on your lineup decisions this week. QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Amani Toomer, and the Giants’ Defense should all be started. WR Steve Smith (who should start in Burress’ place) and TE Kevin Boss are adequate bye week replacements, but I’d avoid the Giants’ Kicker, since it’s not apparent at this point whether that will be John Carney (my guess) or Lawrence Tynes.
San Diego at Miami - Are the Dolphins for real? More specifically, is RB Ronnie Brown for real? The answers to those two questions are “no”, and “yes”, respectively. While San Diego’s Defense is seemingly still struggling to adjust to Shawne Merriman’s absence and should not be started this week, I think they’ll provide a much stiffer challenge for Brown and the Dolphins than the Patriots’ Defense did two weeks ago. Start Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington, Brown, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WR Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter. WR Greg Camarillo is also a worthwhile bye week replacement. For the Chargers start QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding. I’d avoid both teams’ Defenses.
Tennessee at Baltimore - This game figures to be a defensive struggle, and I’d avoid most offensive players on both teams. For Tennessee RB Chris Johnson and TE Bo Scaife are the only players I’d consider starting; for the Ravens the abbreviated list consists of RB Le’Ron McClain and WR Derrick Mason. Both Kickers should be avoided; both Defenses are worth starting.
Kansas City at Carolina - Two underrated offenses facing off against two suspect Defenses. For the Chiefs RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Dwayne Bowe should be in your starting lineup. QB Damon Huard and K Nick Novak are both adequate bye week replacements. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, TE Jeff King, and WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad should all be started. K John Kasay is also an adequate bye week fill-in. I’d avoid both Defenses.
Tampa Bay at Denver - Tampa Bay QB Brian Griese gets to face one of his former teams for the second time in three weeks, and given the Broncos’ Defense (or lack thereof), he figures to have a good game. Still, I wouldn’t start him unless I needed a bye week replacement. RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WR Antonio Bryant, and K Matt Bryant are all worth starting. RB Warrick Dunn and WR Ike Hilliard are also adequate bye week replacements. Keep WR Joey Galloway (Questionable with a foot injury) out of your lineup this week. For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater should all be started. WR Eddie Royal is listed as Probable in spite of his ankle injury, but I wouldn’t start him if I had a healthier option. RB Selvin Young, TE Tony Scheffler, and WR Brandon Stokley are also adequate bye week replacements. At the risk of stating the obvious, neither Defense should be in your starting lineup this week.
New England at San Francisco - The Patriots have had their bye week to lick their wounds and figure out what went wrong in the debacle versus the Dolphins two weeks ago. I suspect they’ll bounce back well against the 49ers’ Defense. TE Ben Watson, WR Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are the only Patriots’ offensive players I’d start, although QB Matt Cassel and RB Laurence Maroney are capable bye week replacements (sorry, Maroney owners, I’m sure you didn’t draft him with that role in mind!). I’d avoid WR Wes Welker, who is Questionable with a groin injury. For the 49ers RB Frank Gore and WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce are the only players worth starting. QB J.T. O’Sullivan, TE Vernon Davis, and K Joe Nedney are bye week replacements only. New England’s Defense is worth starting; San Francisco’s is not.
Buffalo at Arizona - This figures to be a high scoring game, although not nearly as high scoring as last week’s Cardinals-Jets shootout was. For Buffalo QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell are all worth starting. For Arizona QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WR Larry Fitzgerald, and K Neil Rackers should all be in your lineup this week, and WR Steve Breaston makes a good bye week replacement with WR Anquan Boldin out. Neither Defense should be in your starting lineup this week.
Cincinnati at Dallas - While the focus this week leading up to the game may have been on the supposed problems the Cowboys are having on offense, it’s the Bengals that have real problems on offense. Given the uncertainty over the injury status of QB Carson Palmer and RB Chris Perry, I’d avoid any Bengals’ QB or RB this week. WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco are worth starting, and TE Reggie Kelly is a serviceable bye week replacement. For the Cowboys QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk are all worth starting; RB Felix Jones is a good bye week replacement. Start the Cowboys’ Defense, but avoid the Bengals’ Defense at all costs.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville - The Steelers’ running game is in shambles (avoid their RBs this week), which should be good news for owners of QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WR Santonio Holmes & Hines Ward, and K Jeff Reed - they’re all worth starting. Jacksonville QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones, & K Josh Scobee are all worth starting this week. WR Reggie Williams is also an adequate bye week replacement. Neither Defense figures to get torched this week, but I’d suggest keep both out of your starting lineup this week.
Minnesota at New Orleans - A mediocre Offense vs. a terrible Defense, and a great Offense vs. an underachieving Defense - that’s what this game has to offer. Start Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, and K Ryan Longwell. QB Gus Frerotte and WR Bobby Wade can also be used as bye week replacements if you’re desperate. For the Saints I’d avoid RBs Deuce McAllister & Pierre Thomas - I’m not convinced yet that McAllister has supplanted the latter in spite of the imbalance in rushing attempts last week, and whoever the starter is, he figures to have a tough time against the Vikings’ rushing Defense. QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, WR Lance Moore, and K Martin Gramatica can all be started with confidence. WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are decent bye week replacements. Steer clear of both Defenses in what figures to be a high scoring game.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa
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