Friday Morning Quarterback - Week 8: Cowboys to miss playoffs? (10/24/08)
I’ll admit it - the Cowboys were my preseason pick to win Super Bowl XLIII. However, St. Louis’ manhandling last week of backup QB Brad Johnson and the Cowboys demonstrated how most teams’ success depends heavily on the health and ability of their starting QB. The Cowboys’ record is currently 4-3. The only games on their remaining schedule that appear to be “gimmes” are home games against the 49ers and Seahawks. Assuming that it will take 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC this year, the Cowboys would have to go 4-3 in 7 games against the following teams: Buccaneers, Giants (twice), Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.
While I expect Brad Johnson to play better the next two weeks than he did last week against the Rams, given the injuries to starting QB Tony Romo and several injuries in the secondary, I think the best the Cowboys can hope for is a split versus the Buccaneers and Giants. If the Cowboys should lose both of those games, their season is all but over, even if Romo comes back 100% healthy and plays like a Pro Bowl QB - I can’t see the Cowboys going 4-1 against the Giants, Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 8’s games:
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia played well last weekend against a Seattle Defense that spends way too much time on the field, and he figures to do the same this weekend against an undermanned Dallas Defense. Start Garcia, along with RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WR Antonio Bryant, and K Matt Bryant. Stay away from RB Warrick Dunn, who is Questionable this week with a back injury. For Dallas I believe QB Brad Johnson will play much better this week after having a full week of practice with the first-team Offense and without the shadow of Tony Romo looming over him on the sideline. Then again, Tampa’s Defense is also much better than St. Louis’, so I would start Johnson only as a bye week replacement. RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk should all be started. I’d expect a fairly high scoring game (i.e. - something along the lines of 28-24), so I wouldn’t start either Defense this week.
Washington at Detroit - With both Halloween and Election Day coming up shortly, it will be interesting to see whether Redskins’ RB Clinton Portis shows up this week dressed as “Kid Bro Sweets” or “Prime Minister Ya Mon”. Chances are that both of Portis’ alter-egos could rush for 100+ yards against a porous Lions’ Defense that can’t stop either the run or the pass. Portis is listed as Questionable again for this week with a hip injury, but given that he was listed the same way with the same injury last week and still managed to rush for 175 yards against the Browns, he’s worth starting again this week. Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Redskins’ Defense should also be started this week, and WR Antwaan Randle El is once again a legitimate bye week replacement. Not much to like on the Lions’ side this week - WRs Calvin Johnson & Mike Furrey should be started, and RB Kevin Smith is a decent bye week replacement if you need one, but other than that, I’d stay far, far away.
Oakland at Baltimore - The A’s and the Orioles might play a higher scoring game than their football counterparts. I suspect the Ravens will be able to run the ball on the Raiders, and that should result in a victory for the home team. For Oakland TE Zach Miller is the only player worth starting, and even that might be a stretch. For the Ravens RB Willis McGahee is the only player I’d start, although RB Le`Ron McClain and TE Todd Heap are adequate bye week replacements. Feel free to start either Defense, but keep both Kickers out of your starting lineup.
Arizona at Carolina - Arizona’s Offense reminds me of the chicken and egg argument: do they run so little because they pass so well, or do they pass so often because they run so poorly? I suspect it’s the former, which suggests that RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower may receive more carries than usual this week against a Panthers’ Defense that is stronger against the pass than against the run. Nevertheless, QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald should definitely be started this week. James, Hightower, and WR Steve Breaston are good bye week replacements if you need them. The Cardinals’ Defense doesn’t play particularly well against either the run or the pass, so Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, & K John Kasay are all good starts this week. Neither Defense should be in your starting lineup.
St. Louis at New England - Things change very quickly in the NFL. Two weeks ago the Rams were 0-4 and looking at another Top 5 draft pick in 2009. Then, a funny thing happened (unless you’re a Redskins’ or Cowboys’ fan) - the Rams pulled themselves up off the floor (unlike Kimbo Slice) and defeated Washington and Dallas in successive weeks. Now, at 2-4 and with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, the Rams are being mentioned as potential playoff contenders in the NFC West - they’re currently two games behind the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals, and two of their remaining games are against the Cardinals. I expect the Patriots to win a fairly high-scoring game this week, but Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown should all be started. RB Steven Jackson is currently listed as Questionable with a thigh injury, but if he’s able to play, add him to the start list. For the Patriots WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss and K Stephen Gostkowski are must-starts. If RB Sammy Morris’ knee allows him to play (he’s currently listed as Questionable), he should also be started. If not, then RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a decent bye week replacement. QB Matt Cassel and TE Ben Watson are also adequate bye week replacements. Don’t start either Defense this week unless you’re forced to.
Buffalo at Miami - This game gets my vote for this week’s “upset special” - I believe the Dolphins will be able to defeat the Bills. I would say “take it to the bank”, but given the recent financial crisis, you may be better off putting it underneath your mattress. Bills’ QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell are all worth starting this week. For the Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter are all good starts, while QB Chad Pennington and TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are decent bye week replacements.
Atlanta at Philadelphia - Philadelphia plays host to both an NFL game and a World Series game in the same complex on Sunday - I’m not sure the City of Brotherly Love can handle that much excitement in one day. I’d love to see FOX announcer Joe Buck cover the football game in the afternoon, then head down the road to cover the baseball game in the evening, but I’m sure that won’t happen. Since Buck claims not to enjoy baseball that much, perhaps FOX should do us all a favor and find someone else to share the booth with Tim McCarver (Bill O’Reilly, perhaps?). Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective for the Falcons as they go up against Philly’s tough Defense. WR Roddy White is the only Falcon I’d start this week, although Matt Ryan is a low-end bye week replacement for the truly desperate. Quite a different story for the Eagles - QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (yes, he’s back!), WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Eagles’ Defense should all be started. TE L.J. Smith is an adequate bye week replacement. WR Kevin Curtis is also back this week, but I’d leave him on your bench unless you’re feeling really lucky.
Kansas City at NY Jets - Kansas City has become the fantasy football equivalent of a wasteland, if not a Superfund site. TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are still worth starting under the assumption that third-string Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen will have to complete at least 15 passes to somebody, but neither of these players will lead your fantasy team to victory this week. For the Jets I’d avoid starting WR Laveranues Coles, who is listed as Probable in spite of having a thigh injury to go with the concussion he suffered last week against the Raiders. If this game gets out of hand early, as I suspect it will, the Jets will likely give Coles the rest of the afternoon off, which would be great for him, but not so great for your fantasy team. Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre (I wonder if former Jets’ QB Chad Pennington called the Raiders before their game last week with the Jets), RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jericho Cotchery, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense. RB Leon Washington is also a good bye week replacement given the favorable matchup.
San Diego at New Orleans - If you think West Coast teams have a tough time playing well when they travel to the East Coast to play a game at 1pm Eastern Time, how much worse will things get for the Chargers when they travel an extra 3,000 miles/5 time zones east to play in the NFL’s annual game in London? To be fair, the Saints will also be feeling the effects of playing in the U.K. (will the fans cheer loudest when the kickers take the field?), but throw in the possibility of a wet field (remember last year’s Giants’-Dolphins’ game?), and I don’t think this will be the offensive shootout many fantasy experts are predicting. Still, there are a number of players on both teams worth starting. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should be started, and WR Malcom Floyd is a decent bye week replacement. Stay away from WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) even if he plays. For the Saints start QB Drew Brees, WRs Marques Colston (also back this week) & Lance Moore & Devery Henderson, and K Taylor Melhaff. Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if his impending suspension doesn’t take effect this week. Stay away from RB Reggie Bush (Out - knee) and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia).
Cincinnati at Houston - Bengals’ fans are undoubtedly familiar with Joe the Plumber, but given Carson Palmer’s potentially career-threatening injury, they’re probably wishing Jake (the) Plummer were now quarterbacking their team rather than Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick. While the Texans’ pass Defense may offer a bit more resistance than the Yale Bulldogs, Fitzpatrick is actually a decent bye week replacement if your options are limited. Fitzpatrick is unlikely to spread the wealth around - WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco and K Shayne Graham are the only Bengals who should definitely be in starting lineups this week. Like Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson is best left as a bye week replacement for those with limited options. For the Texans RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should all be started this week. QB Matt Schaub, RB Ahman Green, WR Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense can all be used as bye week replacements.
Cleveland at Jacksonville - Browns’ coach Romeo Crennel has requested that his players refrain from discussing politics in the locker room, but given Cleveland’s performance so far this year, their fans may rather receive three straight hours of robo-calls than be forced to watch a Browns’ game. This week figures to be no different. WR Braylon Edwards is the only Browns’ player I’d start this week, although QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis are both low-end bye week replacements. For the Jags QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, and the Defense can all be started with confidence. Add WR Matt Jones to the list if he isn’t suspended prior to Sunday’s game.
Seattle at San Francisco - Not much to like about this game from a fantasy perspective. TE John Carlson is the only Seahawks’ player worth starting, although RBs Julius Jones & Maurice Morris can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate. The only 49ers who should definitely be started are QB J.T. O`Sullivan and RB Frank Gore, but TE Vernon Davis, WR Isaac Bruce, K Joe Nedney, and the Defense can also serve as adequate bye week replacements. I’d stay away from WR Josh Morgan, who’s listed as Questionable with a groin injury.
NY Giants at Pittsburgh - While there are some undeniably talented players on both teams’ Offenses, this may be the only game all year where I can’t recommend starting any Offensive players from either team in good conscience - the two Defenses are that strong, and both are worth starting. By the way, I had to laugh when I read how “polite” WR Santonio Holmes was to the police when they pulled over his SUV the other day and smelled pot in his vehicle. Holmes supposedly handed over several cigars containing marijuana to the cops - I guess we should consider him a “roll” model?
Indianapolis at Tennessee - Each week it seems I make at least one recommendation that goes totally against fantasy football’s golden rule to “always start your studs”. Last week I recommended benching Dolphins’ RB Ronnie Brown for his unfavorable matchup against the Ravens. What did Brown do for you? How about 13 carries for 27 yards and no touchdowns - deal or no deal? I bring this up not to pat myself on the back (well, maybe a little bit), but mainly to stress the point - matchups matter. This week’s case in point - Colts’ QB Peyton Manning. Facing a strong Titans’ pass Defense and with no running game to speak of to fall back on, I wouldn’t start Manning this week if I had another QB on my roster with a more favorable matchup. TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne are the only Colts who should be in your starting lineup this week. The Titans’ passing Offense will also be yardage-challenged, but the Colts’ poor rushing Defense suggests that RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson should both be started. If you’re running low on bye week replacement options, consider Titans’ TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas, and the Titans’ Defense.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa
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