The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Many are undoubtedly kicking themselves for their decision yesterday not to start Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook and (to a lesser extent) QB Donovan McNabb.  Don’t.  And the Sherpa writes this as someone who has both Westbrook and McNabb on his fantasy team this year and decided to bench both of them this week.

Yes, that’s a lot of points to leave on the bench, but in fantasy football, especially at this time of year, risk avoidance is key, and benching both Westbrook and McNabb this week was the smart decision (assuming you had reasonable alternatives on your bench).  Westbrook was listed as Questionable with knee and ankle injuries coming into this game, as he was the last several weeks.  McNabb had suffered through a string of several subpar games, there was no way of knowing how his benching last Sunday against the Ravens was going to affect him, and most importantly, his top offensive weapon (Westbrook) was a big question mark.

It’s easy to point to the result and use that as the basis for second-guessing the decision, but that’s a fruitless exercise since it’s based on a meaningless sample size of one.  Forget Westbrook’s lousy performance against a very strong Ravens’ Defense last Sunday - he would have been hard pressed to turn in a good performance even if he had been at 100%.  The week before against the Bengals Westbrook also laid an egg (and don’t get me started on Reggie Bush’s will he/won’t he routine the last few weeks!).  Thus, given his recent performance (or lack thereof) and his injury status, benching Westbrook this week was a logical decision.  Of course, the most carefully reasoned decisions don’t always work out - accept it and move on.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 13’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Carolina at Green Bay - Considering some of the marquee names on both teams (e.g. - Steve Smith, Greg Jennings), this game offers little in the way of recommended fantasy options for this week.  Carolina figures to have a hard time throwing against the Packers’ Defense, while Green Bay figures to have a hard time doing anything against the Panthers’ Defense.  The only Panthers I’d recommend as starters this week are RB DeAngelo Williams and the Defense.  The only Packer I’d recommend starting this week is TE Donald Lee.

Baltimore at Cincinnati - The Bengals may well win a second game this season, but this won’t be it.  The Ravens figure to have a field day against the Bengals, and QB Joe Flacco, RBs Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain (Probable - thigh), & Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap (Probable - illness), WR Derrick Mason (Probable - shoulder), K Matt Stover, and the Defense should all be started this week.  Normally, I’d recommend Bengals’ WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a starting option, but even though the Bengals will probably be forced to throw 40+ times in this game, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably face a relentless Ravens’ pass rush that won’t give him enough time to find Houshmandzadeh often enough to make him worth starting.

San Francisco at Buffalo - I’m not as impressed by Buffalo’s Defense as others appear to be; conversely, I’m much more optimistic than others about the fantasy prospects of the 49ers’ players this week.  QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney are all worth starting.  I don’t see the Bills being able to run much against the 49ers’ Defense, but the passing game is another story - QB Trent Edwards, TE Robert Royal, and WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed are all start-worthy.

Indianapolis at Cleveland - Another apparent mismatch in a weekend that seemingly contains more than its fair share.  After starting the season 3-4, the Colts have won four games in a row to improve their record to 7-4 and figure to be favored in at least four of their last five games.  While backup QB Jim Sorgi may not get to play his customary game or two at the end of the season in relief of starting QB Peyton Manning, not too many fantasy owners will mind.  Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne (if he decides to show up), Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Colts Defense should all be in starting lineups this week.  In a strange twist of fate QB Brady Quinn is out for the season (finger injury on his throwing hand) while Head Coach Romeo Crennel retains his job for at least another week.  QB Derek Anderson once again takes over the Browns’ Offense, but keep him as far away from your fantasy starting lineup as possible.  The only Browns worth starting this week are RB Jamal Lewis and TE Kellen Winslow (Probable - shoulder).

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Another game where I’m going against the grain and urging you to avoid starting any Saints - yes, that’s right, any (yes, that includes QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee)!).  Tampa Bay has a strong all-around Defense, and as I wrote above, your primary goal as a fantasy football team owner at this point in the season is to avoid risk.  Tampa’s Offense doesn’t impress me much - keep in mind that 14 of the 38 points they put up last weekend against the Lions came courtesy of scores by their Defense.  Accordingly, RB Warrick Dunn is the only Buccaneer I’d recommend starting.

NY Giants at Washington - In another counterintuitive recommendation, I’d stay away from all of the Giants’ players this week.  Washington’s Defense is underrated - they’ve given up no more than 24 points in a game this season, and the Giants will be hard-pressed to top that total.  As with Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook, I’d advise against starting Redskins’ RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee) this week - he’s just not worth the risk if you have healthier options you can start in his place.  The only Redskin I’d start this week is TE Chris Cooley.

Miami at St. Louis - The Dolphins were outgunned last week by Matt Cassel and the Patriots, but this game seems designed to get them back into the win column.  Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington has been one of the best surprises in fantasy football this season - Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter should all be in starting lineups this week.  Rams’ RB Steven Jackson is once again listed as Questionable with his thigh injury - once again, keep him out of your fantasy lineup this week (see above:  Westbrook, Brian and Portis, Clinton).  I’d also advise against starting QB Marc Bulger, who’s listed as Probable in spite of a concussion.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see backup QB Trent Green, who knows a few things about concussions himself, play significant minutes in this game.  Regardless of who the Rams’ QB is, expect them to get the ball to WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, both of whom are worth starting.

Denver at NY Jets - Broncos’ RB Peyton Hillis has come a long way in 12 months.  This time last year he was the third option in Arkansas’ backfield, behind future first round draft picks Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.  Now, Jones is done for the season in Dallas, McFadden is finally healthy but still sharing carries with Justin Fargas in Oakland, and Hillis is the featured back in Denver (which is a bit like being the starting WR on a team that runs the wishbone).  While Hillis is a heartwarming story, he doesn’t belong in your fantasy lineups this week facing an imposing Jets’ run Defense.  Denver may pass 45-50 times in this game, and QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, and WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal all belong in starting lineups.  Jets’ QB Brett Favre hasn’t been asked to throw the ball as often this season as he did in his Packers’ days, but he’s still worth starting against a poor Broncos’ Defense, as are RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Atlanta at San Diego - This game gets the Sherpa’s vote for most entertaining, highest scoring matchup of the weekend.  Both teams feature explosive RBs (even if LaDainian Tomlinson hasn’t really played up to his first pick status this season), first-rate aerial attacks, and suspect Defenses.  Put it all together, and 65-70 combined points isn’t out of the question.  Falcons who should be started include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, WRs Roddy White (Questionable - back) & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam.  Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.

Kansas City at Oakland - As with the Bills, I’m not as impressed with the Raiders’ pass Defense as others are.  Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen has been another pleasant surprise this season, and he should be started this week, along with RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley (Questionable - calf), and K Connor Barth.  Of course, the Chiefs’ Defense will offer little to no resistance, making Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell, RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, WR Ronald Curry, and K Sebastien Janikowski good starts this week.

Pittsburgh at New England  - Steelers’ RB Willie Parker (Questionable - knee) is Exhibit E this week in the litany of injured RBs to keep out of your starting lineup (along with Westbrook, Portis, Jackson, & Bush).  New England’s pass Defense has been exposed the past two weeks by the Jets and the Dolphins - expect the Steelers to continue that trend this week.  Steelers’ QB Ben Roethilisberger, TE Heath Miller, & WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes are all worth starting this week, as is the Steelers’ Defense.  The host Patriots figure to be in for a long day on Offense - the only starter I’d recommend is TE Ben Watson.

Chicago at Minnesota - When these two teams met in Chicago on Oct 19th, the result was a Bears’ victory in a 48-41 shootout.  I expect the same outcome this week in a much lower scoring game.  QB Kyle Orton, TE Greg Olsen, WRs Rashied Davis, Brandon Lloyd, & Devin Hester, and the Bears’ Defense should all be started.  I expect the Vikings to have a difficult time moving the ball by ground or air (making them the anti- FedEx) - the only starter I’d recommend is TE Visanthe Shiancoe.

Jacksonville at Houston - If Jaguars’ QB David Garrard (Questionable - back) is well enough to play Monday night, this game could also be an entertaining shootout.  Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Matt Jones & Reggie Williams, and K Josh Scobee should all be started.  Texans’ QB Sage Rosenfels, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown are all start-worthy options as well.

Once again, you’ll notice I’ve recommended a lot of players this week (non-RBs!) who are listed as Questionable - as always, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

The annual Turkey Day Tripleheader is upon us, and unfortunately, two of the three matches appear to be mismatches (at least on paper).  The most intriguing game of the day is the evening contest in Philadelphia between the Arizona Cardinals and the Eagles.  The outcome of this game hinges on the physical well-being of Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook and the mental well-being of Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb, who was unceremoniously (and inexplicably) benched during Sunday’s loss at Baltimore.  Sure, McNabb has played poorly lately, and his explanations of how it takes him awhile to warm up and get into the flow of a game sound lame.  Still, to throw an inexperienced QB such as Kevin Kolb into the fray in a game your team needs to win to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt seemed like a desperation move by Eagles’ head coach Andy Reid.

How will McNabb respond now that he’s been named the starter again?  Many claim that McNabb’s psyche is fragile, that he can’t take the heat of playing in front of the often-hostile home crowd, etc.  I don’t buy any of that.  Even though McNabb had a “horrible” game in the overtime tie with the Bengals (compounded by his post-game admission that he didn’t realize a regular season NFL game could end in a tie), he still managed to pass for over 300 yards.  Last weekend he was up against the Ravens’ Defense, one of the top units in football.  Yes, the Giants made the Ravens look like a college team the previous weekend, but they were playing at full strength.  With an injured RB Brian Westbrook, the Eagles obviously aren’t.  Putting a new QB into the lineup doesn’t cure what currently ails the Eagles - until Westbrook is healthy again, the Eagles’ Offense will continue to struggle no matter who’s taking the snaps.

With that in mind here are the fantasy-relevant players in the three Thursday games:

Tennessee at Detroit - While I don’t begrudge the Lions their tradition of hosting a Thanksgiving Day game, part of me wishes this were the game on the NFL Network rather than the Arizona-Philly matchup.  Still, there are some interesting story lines here.  Detroit’s Offense is capable of putting up points; unfortunately, their Defense is even more capable of giving them up, which has kept them winless to this point.  How will Tennessee react now that they’ve been knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten?  Will LenDale White pay attention long enough to run over the Lions’ awful Defense?  Titans who should be in starting lineups include QB Kerry Collins, RBs White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense.  The only Lions worth starting are RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - shoulder), if he’s able to play, and WR Calvin Johnson.

Seattle at Dallas - With QB Tony Romo back at the helm the Cowboys are beginning to show signs of why many people (including The Sherpa) picked them to win the Super Bowl this season.  With all of the turmoil they’ve been through this season, it’s hard to believe the Cowboys are 7-4 and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.  A win in this game probably allows the Cowboys to get into the playoffs by splitting their last four games (which still won’t be an easy feat with a schedule of Pittsburgh, the NY Giants, Baltimore, and Philadelphia).  Seattle’s season has been ruined by injuries, especially those to QB Matt Hasselbeck and his receiving corps.  The only Seahawks worth starting this week are RB Julius Jones and TE John Carlson.  Cowboys who should be started this week include Romo (Probable - finger), RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ribs), WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.

Arizona at Philadelphia - In spite of their bad outing against the Ravens last weekend, the Eagles’ Defense has been among the top in the league over the course of the season.  Unfortunately, the Offense has sputtered with RB Brian Westbrook at less than full health, the Defense has been spending more time on the field, and the results are predictable.  That trend will likely continue this week, as Westbrook probably won’t be at full strength once again after receiving 14 carries on Sunday against the Ravens, then having a short week to recover.  Cardinals to start this week include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, and WRs Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, TE L.J. Smith, and WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis.  If I had healthier options, I would advise against starting Westbrook this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Sherpa

Most fantasy football leagues have just one or two weeks left in their regular season.  At this point your team falls into one of three categories:  (1) those that have already clinched playoff berths, (2) those that are still in contention for playoff berths, and (3) those that must relish the opportunity to play spoiler the rest of the season.  No matter which group your team falls into, there’s still plenty of motivation to continue to scour your league’s free agent pool for late-season pickups.

Week 12 was relatively kind to fantasy team owners from an injury perspective - Dolphins’ WR Greg Camarillo and Browns’ QB Brady Quinn are out with season-ending injuries, but chances are you weren’t relying too heavily on either of them (especially Quinn).  The Redskins also cut former league MVP RB Shaun Alexander yesterday, but if you were relying on him to lead you to the fantasy promised land this season, then this blog probably won’t help you much.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT) (i.e. - the rest of the season), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners this week (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again in subsequent weeks.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team this week (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), JaMarcus Russell (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Derek Anderson (SPEC)

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), T.J. Duckett (SPEC), Kenneth Darby (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Davonne Bess (LT), Brandon Jones (ST), Justin Gage (ST), Michael Jenkins (ST), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Ike Hilliard (SPEC), Jabar Gaffney (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC).

Tight Ends

David Martin (LT), Billy Miller (SPEC), Heath Miller (SPEC).

Kickers

Ryan Longwell (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Nick Folk (ST), Phil Dawson (SPEC), Neil Rackers (SPEC), Shaun Suisham (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (ST), Kansas City (ST), Denver (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Every football season offers a handful of players who perform far above expectations.  Some become key contributors to their fantasy owners’ teams’ success.  Others become opportunistic plays when an owner decides to sit a bigger name with a seemingly more difficult matchup.  Some gain their jobs due to injuries; some due to the ineffectiveness of a player who started the season higher up on the depth charts.

The common characteristic these players share is that they have far outperformed their draft position or auction price at the beginning of the season, assuming they were even drafted or purchased to begin with.  Some, like Arizona QB Kurt Warner, now widely mentioned as an MVP candidate, were almost certainly drafted back in late August/early September by owners who must now feel like they won the fantasy football equivalent of the lottery.  Others, through savvy waiver wire acquisitions were able to add the likes of QB Kyle Orton, RB Steve Slaton, WR Eddie Royal, and WR Donnie Avery, just to name a few.

Newton’s 3rd Law could have well been developed with fantasy football in mind - whenever a player like Tom Brady or Edgerrin James falls by the wayside, an opportunity is created for potential fantasy contributors such as Matt Cassel and Tim Hightower.  Predicting which players will become a given season’s diamonds in the rough is a usually a futile exercise that is much more art than science - better to employ the “shoot first, ask questions later” strategy in pursuing a potential diamond.  An unidentified object burning brightly in the fantasy football galaxy is far more likely to be a supernova than a star, but the search for a rare star keeps us interested week after week.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 12’s Sunday & Monday contests:

NY Jets at Tennessee - This week’s “Battle of the Titans (and former Titans)” is a real head-scratcher.  The Jets don’t figure to be able to throw against Tennessee’s Defense; the Titans don’t figure to be able to run against the Jets’ Defense.  I predict the Titans will have more success running the ball than the Jets will have throwing the ball, which should result in the Titans remaining undefeated for another week (actually, 4 days, since they play the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, which should keep them loss-free for at least another 10 days after that).  The only Jets I’d recommend starting this week are RB Thomas Jones and emerging star TE Dustin Keller.  For the Titans QB Kerry Collins, RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, and the Defense are all worth starting (Johnson on the assumption that he will be targeted a fair number of times as a receiver out of the backfield).

Buffalo at Kansas City - If these two teams’ recent fortunes were stock prices, the Bills would be on a sharp downward trend, while the Chiefs, having already hit a trough, are slowly beginning to rise from the ashes again.  It would be easy to look at this game, figure that the Chiefs have momentum (if you can really call it that in their case) and home field advantage on their side, and conclude that they should be able to earn their second victory of the season.  I don’t see it that way - Buffalo should be able to pull out of their nosedive (at least for one week) and get back in the win column.  QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, WR Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell should all be started against a very weak Chiefs’ Defense.  The only Chiefs worth starting are RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Dwayne Bowe.  The Bills’ Defense should also be started.

Tampa Bay at Detroit - For Detroit sports fans 2008 has been the best of times (Red Wings’ Stanley Cup, Pistons reach Eastern Conference finals) and the worst of times (Tigers finish behind the Royals, Lions continue to flounder).  Unfortunately for Lions’ season ticketholders (if such a species still exists), this is the first of two home games for the winless Lions in five days.  The Lions have become the New York Knicks of the NFL, a laughingstock that can do little more than peddle hope for the future to its disgruntled fanbase (note:  New York fans will gladly send Isiah Thomas a one-way ticket back to Detroit).  Even with RB Earnest Graham out for the season, the Bucs figure to extend the Lions’ streak of futility.  QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Antonio Bryant, Michael Clayton, & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant are all worth using against a Lions’ Defense that may be even worse than the Chiefs’.  Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable - quad) is worth starting if he’s healthy enough to play; if not, WR Shaun McDonald can be used as an emergency fill-in.

San Francisco at Dallas - I recently heard one Cowboys’ fan refer to this game as another bye week.  While that may not be technically accurate, the Cowboys do figure to pad their record the next five days with home games against the 49ers and Seahawks.  RB Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week.  The Cowboys offer plenty of options - QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens (Questionable - illness) & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense are all worth starting in what figures to be a one-sided contest.

Houston at Cleveland - Though neither of these teams will reach the playoffs this season, this figures to be one of the more entertaining games this week unless you’re a big fan of defenses.  For the Texans QB Sage Rosenfels, RB Steve Slaton (Questionable - chest), TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown should all be started.  For the Browns QB Brady Quinn (Probable - finger), RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow (Questionable - shoulder), WR Braylon Edwards, and K Phil Dawson are all worth starting.

Carolina at Atlanta - Another game that’s a bit of a head-scratcher.  While the Falcons have shown glimpses of being a potent offensive team, their passing game under much-ballyhooed rookie QB Matt Ryan just isn’t consistent enough to rank among the game’s best.  Combine that with Carolina’s strong pass Defense, and I believe that the Panthers will be able to shut down a Falcons’ Offense that figures to be one-dimensional.  Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be in starting lineups.  The list of start-worthy Falcons is considerably smaller:  RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood (Questionable - ribs) and WR Roddy White (Questionable - back).

Chicago at St. Louis - With Thanksgiving right around the corner it’s easy to draw parallels between the Rams’ disastrous season and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s recent post-turkey pardoning interview in front of a slaughterhouse - both are train wrecks you could see coming from a mile away, but you can’t help but watch the inevitable outcome with a sense of schadenfreude.  Several days ago Rams’ offensive lineman Richie Incognito chose once again not to live up to his last name - he criticized Rams’ fans for their lack of support.  Never mind that a 2-8 team that routinely gets blown out hasn’t given their fans much of anything to cheer about this season, with the notable exception of their two-week run against the Redskins and Cowboys that now seems like a distant memory.  With Rams’ RB Steven Jackson out again this week with his thigh injury, there are no Rams who should be in your starting lineup this week.  For the Bears QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis, and Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould, and the Defense all belong in starting lineups this week.

New England at Miami - It’s easy to look at the Patriots’ early-season demolition at the hands of the wildcattin’ Dolphins, the emergence of QB Matt Cassel during last week’s OT loss to the Jets, and the Dolphins’ shaky victories the past two weeks at home against underwhelming Oakland and Seattle teams and conclude that the Patriots should win this game easily.  I don’t see it that way, and I like Miami to bounce back from its recent subpar performances and win the rematch too.  For the Patriots, Cassel, TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski all belong in starting lineups this week.  For the Dolphins the list includes QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter.

Philadelphia at Baltimore - Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb was widely criticized following last week’s overtime tie with the Bengals for admitting that he didn’t realize that regular season games could end in an overtime tie.  While the ensuing vitriol may have pushed McNabb several steps closer to the exit when his contract expires at the end of this season, the real problem for the Eagles has been the ongoing health saga of RB Brian Westbrook.  The Eagles’ star RB is listed as Questionable for this week with knee and ankle injuries, but even if he were 100% healthy, he’d be a poor choice to start this week against a Ravens’ Defense that once again appears to be dominant.  In fact only TE L.J. Smith and the Eagles’ Defense are worth starting this week for the visitors.  The Ravens have been dealing with injury issues of their own (RB Willis McGahee, WR Derrick Mason).  Only TE Todd Heap and the Ravens’ Defense are worth starting in what figures to be a very low-scoring game.

Minnesota at Jacksonville - Comedian Al Franken, trailing by a razor-thin margin in his Minnesota Senate race against Norm Coleman, may soon be looking for his next gig.  Perhaps the Vikings should hire Franken to wander the stands at their games and bring some laughs to fans that have grown accustomed to watching their team’s games with a knot in their stomach.  At the very least he might be able to get Vikings’ coach Ray Childress to shake hands with former Vikings’ (and current Jaguars’) WR Troy Williamson, who has expressed his desire to fight Childress but will be confined to the sidelines this Sunday.  For Minnesota QB Gus Frerotte, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade (Questionable - thigh), and K Ryan Longwell are all worth starting.  The Jaguars don’t figure to be able to run the ball against the Vikings, but RB Maurice Jones-Drew is still worth starting on the assumption that he’ll catch a number of passes out of the backfield.  Other Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Matt Jones (Questionable - thigh).

Oakland at Denver  - Like disgraced Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, Raiders’ owner Al Davis has long overstayed his welcome.  While Alaska voters were given the chance every six years to vote Stevens out, Raiders’ fans haven’t been so fortunate.  The honeymoon brought about by the Raiders’ return to Oakland in 1995 has long since ended.  While it’s easy to pin all the Raiders’ problems on the owner and a merry-go-round of hapless head coaches, the fact remains that there are some talented players on Oakland’s roster.  Against a poor Denver Defense QB JaMarcus Russell (Questionable - knee, ankle), RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden (Probable - toe), TE Zach Miller, WR Ronald Curry, and K Sebastien Janikowski can all be started.  Denver’s RB situation remains a mess - Peyton Hillis is the flavor du jour, but I wouldn’t start him, even against the Raiders’ weak run Defense.  However, QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip) & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater should all be started.

Washington at Seattle - The wheels have begun to come off the charmed ride the Redskins were enjoying under rookie head coach Jim Zorn.  Still, the spare tire should have enough air in it to allow Washington to get back in the win column this week against an undermanned Seahawks team.  Start QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee), TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El (Questionable - ankle), K Steve Suisham, and the Redskins’ Defense.  TE John Carlson is the only Seahawk worth starting this week.

NY Giants at Arizona - Yet another head-scratcher - how will the high-octane Cardinals’ Offense fare against the Giants’ vaunted Defense?  While among the league’s statistical leaders, the Giants’ Defense has the potential to give up a lot of points, as they did in games against Cleveland and Philadelphia.  The Cardinals’ Defense has flown under the radar this season in posting slightly better-than-average totals, but if the Giants are healthy enough on Offense, this figures to be a high-scoring game.  Giants worth starting include QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable - knee), TE Kevin Boss, WRs Plaxico Burress (Questionable - hamstring), Amani Toomer, & Steve Smith.  If Jacobs is unable to play, delete him from the list and add RBs Derrick Ward & Ahmad Bradshaw.  Cardinals who should be started include QB Kurt Warner, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.

Indianapolis at San Diego - Neither of these teams can be accused of peaking too soon this season.  The Colts’ playoff prospects look better at this point than the Chargers’, but neither has looked like the Super Bowl contender they were expected to be.  Defense figures to be an afterthought in this game, so there are plenty of fantasy options on both teams.  For the Colts they include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri.  Chargers who should be started are QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, and K Nate Kaeding.

Green Bay at New Orleans - Another game that may leave you wondering where the Defenses are. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be started.  QB Drew Brees, RBs Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee) & Deuce McAllister (Questionable - knee), TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston (Questionable - knee) & Lance Moore, and K Garrett Hartley should all be started for the Saints.

You’ll notice I’ve recommended a lot of players this week who are listed as Questionable - as always, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Chad Ocho Cinco has been suspended for Cincinnati’s Thursday night game with the Steelers, allegedly for walking out on a team meeting.  Perhaps Ocho Cinco watched enough film to have a sense of what he and his teammates were up against this week, then decided to pass.  Perhaps he needed more time to work on the choreography for yet another touchdown celebration that will never see the light of day (or night).  Perhaps this was just his latest attempt to force the Bengals’ hand in an ongoing feud with the organization.

Whatever the reason, it seems likely that Ocho Cinco has played his last game with the Bengals.  With Ocho Cinco headed for free agency and with the Bengals headed for yet another top 5 (if not top 3) pick in next April’s draft, the Bengals have little to no incentive to play him again this season, even if he is 100% healthy.  If you were the Bengals, why wouldn’t you deactivate Ocho Cinco and see what (if anything) receivers such as Chris Henry and Glenn Holt have to offer?

What about other teams?  Will some GM and owner be willing to take a chance on Chad the Flamboyant?  After all, he hasn’t been arrested or suspended before - the worst thing he’s been guilty of has been bad judgment.  In a league filled with mediocre receiving corps, it’s hard to believe a team like San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Jacksonville, or Chicago (just to name a few of the more obvious options) wouldn’t be interested in signing Ocho Cinco to see if a change of scenery would bring about a change of attitude.  Lately, his antics have eclipsed his ability, but it’s difficult to forget how talented a receiver he is when he’s not acting out, and I’d bet the WR formerly known as Johnson will find a new home next season (although now that he’s legally changed his last name, it would be funny if his new team already had someone wearing #85 who wasn’t willing to give up that number).  In the meantime . . .

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - With or without Ocho Cinco the Bengals would be in for a long evening.  Their Defense has actually been respectable for most of the season (just ask the Giants and Eagles), but the Offense’s inability to move the ball by ground or by air has forced the Defense to spend way too much time on the field.  That trend figures to continue this evening - the only Bengal worth starting this week is WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  It’s an entirely different story for the Steelers, who figure to win this game handily, even if, as I suspect, they’re able to put up only 21-24 points against the Bengals’ Defense.  With TE Heath Miller’s status still up in the air, I’d avoid both Miller and his replacement Matt Spaeth, who has filled in adequately during Miller’s absence.  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Steelers’ Defense are all worth starting this week.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

With the bye weeks now receding in the distance, there’s no reason (unless your rosters are frozen before your league’s playoffs start) to carry backups at Tight End, Kicker, or Defense.  You’re much better off speculating on a high-upside Quarterback, Running Back, or Wide Receiver.  Fortunately, options may still be available at each of these key positions.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC)

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Ahman Green (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), T.J. Duckett (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Bobby Wade (LT), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Justin Gage (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Dustin Keller (LT), Marcedes Lewis (ST), Donald Lee (SPEC), David Martin (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC).

Kickers

Mason Crosby (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Joe Nedney (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Matt Stover (LT), Dan Carpenter (LT), Olindo Mare (LT), Phil Dawson (ST), Jason Hanson (SPEC), Sebastian Janikowski (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (ST), Kansas City (ST), Denver (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Continuing with last week’s theme, Week 11 offers another fine example of a great player with a potentially awful matchup - LaDainian Tomlinson goes up against the vaunted Steelers’ Defense.  The thought of not using the guy who probably went first in your draft, went for the highest price in your auction, or commanded a steep premium in a trade probably won’t sit well with most of LT’s fantasy owners.

However, I’m assuming your ultimate goals are to have fun and win your fantasy league championship (and hopefully in that order). To accomplish the latter you want to win as many games as possible during your league’s regular season to punch your ticket for your league’s playoffs as soon as possible.  Does having the number one ranked team during the regular season guarantee fantasy playoff success?  Unlike the NFL, the answer is often “no”, even if your team benefits from a first-round bye by virtue of your regular season performance.

Being among the first to qualify for your league’s playoffs gives you a huge potential advantage over your less fortunate leaguemates - the time to review your players’ matchups for your league’s playoff weeks and make any necessary roster adjustments.  Unfortunately, some owners don’t take advantage of this head start, then wonder why their playoff opponent’s team, led by Ron Dayne, defeated their star-studded roster, led by Tom Brady.  It’s all about the matchups!

Of course, those who are still fighting at this point just to get into their league’s playoffs don’t have the luxury of looking ahead - for teams in this boat, thinking ahead to this Sunday’s matchups counts as long-term thinking.  Back to the matter at hand.  If your team is currently 7-3 or better, then you’re probably very likely to make your league’s playoffs, and analyzing individual players’ matchups carefully probably isn’t high on your list of things to do.  If you’re still in the playoff chase, but are currently in a battle just to get in, you should try to find the time to analyze weekly matchups carefully and use them to your advantage.  The experience you gain doing this now will serve you well when (not if) you qualify for your league’s playoffs.

When analyzing matchups, many people merely look at the Total Rushing Yards Allowed or Total Passing Yards Allowed by a player’s upcoming opponent.  This can be misleading (see this week’s “Wednesday Morning Quarterback” post for an example using last night’s Jets-Patriots game).  You’ll be much better off if you also look at the Rushing Yards Allowed per Attempt and Passing Yards Allowed per Attempt - doing so in combination with the previous information will give you more clues regarding the odds of your players being successful.

Here are some thoughts on games and players (including LT!) for Week 11’s Sunday & Monday games:

Houston at Indianapolis - A lot has been written this week attributing Texans’ rookie RB Steve Slaton’s poor performance against the Ravens to his workload.  I’m not buying it - I attribute it to a very unfavorable matchup that played out much as you should have expected it to.  I’m back on the Slaton bandwagon this week against a weak Colts’ run Defense - Slaton, along with TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson, should be started this week.  For the Colts I’d avoid starting WRs Reggie Wayne (Questionable - ankle) and Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable - hamstring) if you have healthier options.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WR Marvin Harrison, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started and offer the potential of a big payoff.

New Orleans at Kansas City - Much has been made of last weekend’s sideline confrontation between Saints’ QB Drew Brees and TE Jeremy Shockey.  That should be nothing compared to the offensive fireworks this game should provide.  For the Saints Brees, RB Deuce McAllister, RB Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee), Shockey, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley should all be in starting lineups.  For the Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, and K Connor Barth are all worth starting.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati - Expect the Eagles to play with the “desperation” QB Donovan McNabb described during the week.  McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, WRs DeSean Jackson (Probable - groin) & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Eagles Defense should all be started.  The only Bengals who should be started this week are WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco.

Chicago at Green Bay - It doesn’t matter whether the Bears start Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton at QB - neither should be started against the Packers.  The only Bears I’d recommend this week are RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen.  Start-worthy Packers include QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.

Detroit at Carolina - I wrote several weeks ago that I thought the 1-win Chiefs were probably a worse team than the winless Lions.  Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen’s subsequent “emergence” has rendered that opinion incorrect, and as you saw above, the Chiefs actually offer a number of decent fantasy starters in a good week.  Sadly, the same cannot be said for the prideless Lions - WR Calvin Johnson now borders on auto-start status, but he’s the only one worth starting this week.  The Panthers are the badder cats in this matchup, and QB Jake Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be started.

Tennessee at Jacksonville -Titans’ QB Kerry Collins’ passing performance last week was an aberration - like the Dow at 14,000, you shouldn’t expect to see it again anytime soon.  RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, and the Titans’ Defense all belong in starting lineups this week.  The start-worthy list is even shorter for the disappointing Jaguars - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and the Jaguars’ Defense.  I’ll be surprised if the winner scores more than 21 points in this game.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Minnesota was fortunate to emerge from last week’s struggle against the division-rival Packers with a victory.  This week they’re not likely to be so fortunate against a solid Tampa Bay team.  RB Adrian Peterson and TE Visanthe Shiancoe are the only Vikings worth starting.  Buccaneers who should be in starting lineups this week include QB Jeff Garcia, TE Alex Smith (Questionable - ankle), WRs Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard, & Michael Clayton, K Matt Bryant, and the Defense.  As you might suspect, I like the Bucs to win this game.

Baltimore at NY Giants - Last week’s “Super Bowl Preview” game was the Titans against the Bears.  This week’s edition features the suddenly potent Offense of the Baltimore Ravens going against the one team that actually has won a Super Bowl in the last twelve months.  Still, I suspect this matchup will be dominated by defense.  Accordingly, the only Ravens I’d start this week would be the suddenly effective RB Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.  Unlike Kimbo Slice, the Giants may have a dominating ground game, but I would recommend looking for other RB options this week.  QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss, WR Plaxico Burress, and the Giants Defense are all worth starting.

Oakland at Miami - Last week I wrote that Miami should dominate their matchup against the hapless Seahawks - that obviously didn’t happen.  However, I believe the second time’s the charm, and I expect the Dolphins to pick up where they should have left off last week as they host the equally hapless Raiders.  The only Raiders I’d recommend starting this week are RB Justin Fargas and TE Zach Miller.  Once again, the recommended starter list is a lengthy one for the Fish:  QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, WRs Ted Ginn & Greg Camarillo, K Dan Carpenter, and the Defense.

Denver at Atlanta - I’m guessing that you don’t own either team’s Defense (unless you fell asleep in early September and your fantasy lineup still includes Tom Brady, Edgerrin James, Javon Walker, Randy McMichael, and Martin Gramatica).  Furthermore, I’m guessing that if you are the unfortunate owner of one of these Defenses, you’ll have the good sense not to start them this weekend.  That said, Broncos who should be in starting lineups this weekend include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler (Probable - groin), WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  The Falcons counter with a start-worthy crew including QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner (Probable - hand) & Jerious Norwood, WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam, who hopefully enjoys kicking in the Georgia Dome more than he did in Denver’s balmy Novembers and Decembers.

Arizona at Seattle  - Before the season began you might have looked and the schedule and guessed that this game would have playoff implications in the NFC West.  However, not many would have guessed that the team staring a division title and playoff berth straight in the eye would be the Cardinals rather than the Seahawks.  While Charlie Brown has a better chance of kicking a football out of Lucy’s hold than the Cardinals do of going deep in the playoffs, their roster still provides bountiful treasure from a fantasy perspective.  QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald, and K Neil Rackers should all be started this week.  Assuming that Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (Probable - back) finally returns this week, he should be started, along with RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WR Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - Last week I recommended benching Colts’ QB Peyton Manning against the Steelers’ Defense.  When WR Reggie Wayne hauled in that tipped pass and took it 60+ yards for a TD, I cursed the fantasy heavens, but I’d still make that similar recommendation if I had it to do over again.  This week, I get another chance to practice my “Bench your studs when they have bad matchups” philosophy, and I’m sticking to it - I would leave Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers and RB LaDainian Tomlinson out of fantasy starting lineups this week (yes, I’m sober).  For San Diego the only starters I’d recommend are TE Antonio Gates and the Chargers’ Defense.  For the Steelers, I’m not sold on the health of QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Willie Parker.  However, I’d be willing to take a chance starting the latter (depending on my other RB options), but not the former.  The Steelers’ Defense is also start-worthy, even against the high-octane Chargers’ Offense.

St Louis at San Francisco - After losing their first four games in disastrous fashion, the Rams strung together impressive wins against the Redskins and Cowboys.  All of the sudden, they appeared to be back in the playoff hunt in the mediocre NFC West.  However, three straight defeats quickly deflated any talk of the playoffs (perhaps Jim Mora will come out of retirement to coach them).  With RB Steven Jackson out once again this week, the only Rams worth starting are QB Marc Bulger, and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery.  49ers worth starting include QB Shaun Hill (yes, you read that correctly), RB Frank Gore (Probable - neck), WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson (remember them?), and K Joe Nedney.

Dallas at Washington - When these two teams met for the first time this season back in Week 4, there were plenty of great fantasy options on both teams.  Now, with both teams having been bitten by the injury bug, the picture looks a lot different.  Stay away from Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo and TE Jason Witten this week, even though both are slated to play - hopefully, you have healthier options.  WR Terrell Owens is the only Cowboy I would consider starting this week against a Redskins’ Defense that’s better than you think.  With RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee) looking increasingly unlikely to play, TE Chris Cooley and the Defense are the only start-worthy options on the Redskins’ roster.

Cleveland at Buffalo - Like Washington, Buffalo has a Defense that’s (still) better than you think (yes, in spite of the injuries).  Accordingly, TE Kellen Winslow is the only Brown I’d recommend starting this week.  Similarly, Cleveland’s run Defense is better than you think, so avoid starting Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch this week if you can help it.  QB Trent Edwards, WR Lee Evans, and the Bills’ Defense are all worth starting against a Browns’ team that was vastly overhyped before the season started on the basis of their underperforming Offense.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Retired New York Giants’ defensive end Michael Strahan made news at the end of last season for his “stomp ‘em out” dance, a tribute to his team’s victory over the seemingly invincible New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42.

Thursday night the New York Jets get a chance to exorcise their own demons as they travel to Foxborough to take on the same New England Patriots.  Actually, they’re not the same New England Patriots - they’re a totally different team without injured stars Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Adalius Thomas, and Rodney Harrison.   Still, the fear persists among many Jets’ fans that Murphy’s Law governs this rivalry, and that their beloved team will somehow find a way to screw up their golden opportunity to seize first place.  Maybe Brett Favre will throw a key late-game interception off his back foot.  Maybe Randy Moss will get behind the newly-signed Ty Law late in the 4th quarter to score the game-winning touchdown.  Maybe Leon Washington will fumble away a kickoff return, leading to an easy touchdown for the Patriots.  Maybe inclement weather will render the Jets’ seeming advantage in the passing game obsolete.

After 40 years without so much as a league championship, it’s easy to understand why Jets’ fans would be tempted to give in to this Charlie Brown Syndrome.  However, those 40 years of frustration weigh more heavily on the fans than they do on the players, none of whom (even Brett Favre) were born when Joe Willie Namath led the Jets to their historic upset of the Colts in Super Bowl 3.  Different year, different situation, and (I predict) a different outcome.

Here are the players to start and avoid from this week’s Thursday night matchup of the (team formerly known as the) Titans.

NY Jets at New England

It’s easy to look at the Patriots’ run Defense (ranked 12th in the league based on 100.0 rushing yards allowed per game) and conclude the Jets will have a difficult time running the ball.  Not so fast.  A closer look reveals that the Patriots give up 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 19th in the league and is decidedly mediocre.  This suggests that teams aren’t attempting as many rushes per game against the Patriots - perhaps that’s because they’re throwing the ball more?  Again, not so fast.  The Patriots’ pass Defense gives up 201.0 yards per game, which ranks 15th in the league.  However, they give up 7.8 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 27th in the league and is far below average.  This suggests that teams are also attempting fewer than average passes against the Patriots in a typical game.  How can this be?

A quick look at the Patriots’ offensive stats reveals the answer.  The Patriots average 133.0 yards rushing per game, which ranks 7th in the league and allows them to keep the ball for almost 33 minutes per game, which ranks 4th in the league in time of possession.  Even though they average a middling 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, by relying on the running game as much as they do, the Patriots are able to keep the clock running, thus decreasing the number of plays run in their games and masking their defensive deficiencies.

The Jets are no slouches themselves in the time of possession department - clocking in at just over 32 minutes per game, they rank 8th in the league.  Obviously, something’s gotta give, and it seems apparent that whoever rushes the ball more effectively will control the clock and ultimately win the game.  I don’t like the Patriots’ chances of rushing the ball against the Jets’ Defense, which ranks 5th in both rushing yards allowed per game (76.4) and rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.2).  Surprisingly, the Jets are also among the league leaders in both sacks (31) and interceptions (9).  Add it all up, and I forecast a convincing Jets’ victory.  Charlie Brown may never succeed in kicking the football, but I predict that Thursday night the Jets will finally give the Patriots the boot - we shall see.

Jets who should be in your starting lineup this week include QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles & Jericho Cotchery, K Jay Feely, and the Defense.  The only Patriots I’d start this week would be WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss.
More to come on Friday!

The Sherpa

The bye weeks are finally behind us - hurray!  While this may decrease the demand somewhat for week-to-week waiver wire pickups, there are still several important reasons to remain vigilant, if not active:  (1) there’s always the potential that players currently on waivers may improve your team’s starting lineup or your depth, (2) injuries (current or potential) are always a concern, and (3) the team that gets you into your fantasy league’s playoffs isn’t necessarily the same team that will allow you to win your league’s championship - matchups matter! (aka - the Sherpa’s Golden Rule)

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck (LT), Jeff Garcia (LT), Ryan Fitzpatrick (LT), Rex Grossman (ST), Shaun Hill (SPEC), Kerry Collins (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Drew Stanton (SPEC).

Running Backs

Michael Bush (SPEC), Dantrell Savage (SPEC), Ahman Green (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Bobby Wade (LT), Bobby Engram (LT), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Mark Clayton (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC), Brandon Stokley (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Jerry Porter (SPEC), Chris Henry (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Malcom Floyd (SPEC), Justin Gage (SPEC), Koren Robinson (SPEC), Jerheme Urban (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Jordy Nelson (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Alex Smith (LT), Todd Heap (LT), Robert Royal (SPEC), David Martin (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC).

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Nick Folk (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC), Josh Brown (SPEC), Olindo Mare (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (LT), Washington (SPEC), Cleveland (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Many fantasy football experts will advise you to “start your studs” every week, regardless of the matchup they have in a given week.  That makes absolutely no sense, and I urge you to ignore that adage in setting your weekly lineups.  Matchups DO matter - they’re much more important than a player’s name recognition.  Note that I’m not suggesting you drop Peyton Manning this week to pick up Shaun Hill.  What I am suggesting is that before deciding on your starting lineup each week, you should go over your players’ matchups at each position, then pick the player(s) with the greatest likelihood of doing well in the coming week, taking into account the opponent, the player’s health, and the likelihood the player will see significant playing time.

Here’s a quick story to illustrate my point.  Two years ago I was advising a friend who made it to his league’s championship game.  His starting QB was Matt Hasselbeck, who had a terrible matchup that week against the San Diego Chargers’ Defense (if memory serves).  After scouring his league’s waiver wire (I realize that not all leagues allow you to do this during your league’s playoff weeks), we determined the best available free agent QB was the 49ers’ Alex Smith, who had a more favorable matchup (I believe it was against the Rams or Cardinals).  When my friend decided to start Alex Smith instead of Matt Hasselbeck in his league’s championship game, his leaguemates were convinced that either (1) he was trying to lose, or (2) he was an idiot.

Sure enough, Smith had a bad game - I believe he scored all of 5 points.  However, Hasselbeck had a terrible game, registering negative points.  If my friend had started Hasselbeck, he would have lost his league’s championship game by several points; because he started Smith instead, he won the game (and the ~$2,500 that went with it) by less than one point.

Of course, one anecdote does not prove anything, and there’s no guarantee such a strategy will work every time you use it.  However, if you use it consistently, you will give yourself the best chance to win each week.  I’ve seen this strategy work in recent weeks with Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, and Marshawn Lynch, among others.  This week there are a number of name quarterbacks with bad matchups, including Peyton Manning (@ Pittsburgh), Eli Manning (@ Philadelphia), and Donovan McNabb (vs NY Giants).  I would start Chad Pennington (vs Seattle) or Matt Ryan (vs New Orleans) over any of these three this week in order to give my fantasy team the best chance to win.

While it’s a great idea to use this strategy in Week 10, it’s absolutely imperative that you use it during your league’s playoff weeks.  How many people do you know who rode Tom Brady’s phenomenal performance to their league’s regular season title last year but lost in an early playoff round when he had a subpar game against the NY Jets?  Don’t let something similar happen to you this year!  Your leaguemates will not remember, much less care, what your team’s record was during the regular season.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 10’s Sunday & Monday games:

St Louis at NY Jets - Rams’ RB Steven Jackson is once again listed as Questionable with a thigh injury - leave him out of your starting lineup this week unless you’re going to have access to your lineup just before gametime Sunday.  Even if he plays, I wouldn’t start him against the Jets’ stout run Defense.  Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown all should be started this week.  The Jets also have injury issues - WRs Lavernues Coles (thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (shoulder) are once again listed as Questionable for this week.  Although it appears Jets’ coach Eric Mangini is borrowing a page from the Bill Bellichick playbook (for several years the latter listed Tom Brady on the injury report each week with a bad shoulder) and that Coles & Cotchery will both play again this week, I’d recommend checking your rosters for healthier options.  QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense should all be started this week.  RB Leon Washington is once again a good bye week replacement.

Jacksonville at Detroit - The big question concerning the Lions this week (besides whether they’ll actually win a game this season) - who will start at QB this week?  Incumbent Dan Orlovsky is listed as Questionable with a thumb injury, Drew Stanton has never started a game, and veteran Daunte Culpepper was just signed on Tuesday.  My guess is Culpepper, but the truth of the matter is that if any of the three are in your starting lineup this week, you’re in bad shape.  For the Jaguars QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones (assuming he’s not suspended), K Josh Scobee, and the Defense are all worth starting this week.  WR Calvin Johnson is the only must-start Lion, although RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Shaun McDonald & Mike Furrey can be used as bye week replacements if you’re desperate.

Tennessee at Chicago - If you like defensive struggles, this game is for you!  If the two teams combine for more than 35 points, I’ll be surprised.  Tennessee’s Offense, already burdened by an anemic passing game, will struggle against a tough Bears’ run Defense.  Regardless of whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman starts at QB, the Bears figure to have a rough time running and passing against the Titans’ Defense.  Start the two Defenses - the only offensive player worth starting on either side is Bears’ TE Greg Olsen, although you can also use Titans’ TE Bo Scaife if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.  Hopefully, your fantasy team’s success this week doesn’t depend heavily on offensive players from either team.

Baltimore at Houston - Fueled by contributions from two rookies, QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice, the Ravens finally appear to have a semblance of an Offense.  Rice is listed as Questionable with a chest injury, but he’s expected to start, and he’s worth starting in your fantasy lineup too if you’re lucky enough to own him.  WR Derrick Mason and the Ravens’ Defense should also be started, while Flacco, RB Le’Ron McClain, TE Todd Heap, WR Mark Clayton, and K Matt Stover are adequate bye week replacements.  Due to last week’s injury to QB Matt Schaub the Texans will once again be forced to rely on QB Sage Rosenfels, who is starting to remind me of injured Lions’ QB Jon Kitna (i.e. - decent fantasy stats, but you don’t want him starting for a team you’re rooting for).  TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson are the only Texans worth starting this week.

New Orleans at Atlanta - Defense may be an afterthought in this game.  Saints’ QB Drew Brees and WR Marques Colston definitely belong in starting lineups this week, and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia) does too if he’s finally healthy enough to play.  WRs Lance Moore & Devery Henderson are also good bye week replacement options.  For the Falcons RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam are all worth starting, while QB Matt Ryan, RB Jerious Norwood, and WR Michael Jenkins can all be used as bye week replacements.

Green Bay at Minnesota - The outcome of this game hinges on whether Green Bay will be able to run on Minnesota’s stout run Defense and whether Minnesota will be able to throw against Green Bay’s pass Defense.  I think the latter is more likely to happen than the former, which should lead to a Vikings’ victory.  Assuming that Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (Questionable - shoulder) is able to play, he should be in starting lineups this week, along with WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.  TE Donald Lee is an adequate bye week replacement.  For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and WR Bernard Berrian should all be started.

Seattle at Miami - I’m still trying to figure out how Seattle was able to manhandle San Francisco in Week 8.  I believe this is the first instance all year when I’m unable to recommend anyone from a team’s roster for a fantasy league starting lineup.  Quite the opposite for the Dolphins - QB Chad Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, K Dan Carpenter, and the Defense are all worth starting this week.  Just for extra measure - TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are also decent bye week replacement options.  It doesn’t get any clearer than this from a fantasy perspective . . .

Buffalo at New England - For the second week in a row I’d recommend leaving Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch out of your starting lineup. QB Trent Edwards and WR Lee Evans are the only Bills worth starting this week, although TE Robert Royal can also be used as a bye week replacement if you’re desperate.  On the Patriots’ side of the ball I still don’t trust QB Matt Cassel as a fantasy starter, not even if you’re looking at him as a bye week replacement.  WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker are the only Patriots I’d definitely start.  RBs Kevin Faulk & Benjarvus Green-Ellis are both low-end bye week replacements.

Carolina at Oakland - Although not quite the mismatch on paper that the Seattle-Miami game appears to be, this contest ranks a close second.  For Carolina QB Jake Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be started, and TE Jeff King is a low-end bye week replacement.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting this week.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh - In keeping with the opening section Colts’ QB Peyton Manning should not be in your starting lineup this week.  The Colts don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Steelers, which should lead to lots of passing attempts by Manning, but I don’t believe the results will be pretty.  When the Defense knows what’s coming, especially when that Defense has a strong pass rush, it gives them a huge advantage.  Of course, Manning will still complete ~20 passes to someone, which makes TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne (if he’s healthy enough to play) worth starting, and makes WRs Anthony Gonzalez & Marvin Harrison low-end bye week replacements.  Things are even bleaker on the Pittsburgh side of the ball - QB Ben Roethlisberger (Questionable - shoulder) should not be started, even if he’s healthy enough to play.  RB Willie Parker (Questionable - shoulder) and TE Heath Miller (Questionable - ankle) would both be worth starting if they were healthy enough to play.  However, unless you’ll have access to your team’s lineup shortly before gametime, don’t take the risk.  Both Defenses are worth starting in this game.

Kansas City at San Diego  - Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is showing signs of improvement, but he’s still no more than a low-end bye week replacement.  As usual, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are the only Chiefs worth starting.  However, against a suspect Chargers’ Defense RB Jamaal Chrles and K Connor Barth are both adequate bye week replacements.  For the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding are all worth starting.  With WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) still hobbled, WR Vincent Jackson is a high-end bye week replacement.

NY Giants at Philadelphia - This game spotlights several exceptions to the “always start your studs” rule I discussed above.  Giants’ QB Eli Manning and RB Brandon Jacobs, along with Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook, are too risky to start this week against the strong Defenses they’ll be going against.  The only way I’d start any of the four is if I didn’t have another QB or RB with a better matchup this week.  For those of you who say, “Wait a minute - I drafted (Player X) in the (Yth) round - I have to start him!”, think back to the idea of a sunk cost from that economics course you took (Z) years ago - that’s a convoluted way of saying “It doesn’t matter!”  Your goal each week is to start the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning, and matchups like this should be avoided at all costs.  That said, the underachieving Giants’ WR Plaxico Burress should be started this week, and TE Kevin Boss and WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith are decent bye week replacements.  For the Eagles TE L.J. Smith and WR DeSean Jackson are worth starting, and WR Kevin Curtis is an above-average bye week replacement.  Both Defenses are also worth starting.

San Francisco at Arizona - I freely admit that I can’t get my head around the idea of Arizona being a playoff team this season (especially recalling their ugly loss against the Jets in Week 4), but that’s exactly what’s going to happen, barring a total collapse in a division full of teams that will have top 10 draft picks next April.  San Francisco is one of those teams, and accordingly, RB Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week.  QB Shaun Hill and TE Vernon Davis can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate.  The Cardinals’ Offense under QB Kurt Warner is beginning to resemble the “Greatest Show on Turf” track meets that Warner used to direct as quarterback of the Rams nearly a decade ago.  Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald, K Neil Rackers, and even the Cardinals’ Defense are all worth starting given this matchup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa