Friday Morning Quarterback - Week 10: Bench your studs!?! (11/7/08)
Many fantasy football experts will advise you to “start your studs” every week, regardless of the matchup they have in a given week. That makes absolutely no sense, and I urge you to ignore that adage in setting your weekly lineups. Matchups DO matter - they’re much more important than a player’s name recognition. Note that I’m not suggesting you drop Peyton Manning this week to pick up Shaun Hill. What I am suggesting is that before deciding on your starting lineup each week, you should go over your players’ matchups at each position, then pick the player(s) with the greatest likelihood of doing well in the coming week, taking into account the opponent, the player’s health, and the likelihood the player will see significant playing time.
Here’s a quick story to illustrate my point. Two years ago I was advising a friend who made it to his league’s championship game. His starting QB was Matt Hasselbeck, who had a terrible matchup that week against the San Diego Chargers’ Defense (if memory serves). After scouring his league’s waiver wire (I realize that not all leagues allow you to do this during your league’s playoff weeks), we determined the best available free agent QB was the 49ers’ Alex Smith, who had a more favorable matchup (I believe it was against the Rams or Cardinals). When my friend decided to start Alex Smith instead of Matt Hasselbeck in his league’s championship game, his leaguemates were convinced that either (1) he was trying to lose, or (2) he was an idiot.
Sure enough, Smith had a bad game - I believe he scored all of 5 points. However, Hasselbeck had a terrible game, registering negative points. If my friend had started Hasselbeck, he would have lost his league’s championship game by several points; because he started Smith instead, he won the game (and the ~$2,500 that went with it) by less than one point.
Of course, one anecdote does not prove anything, and there’s no guarantee such a strategy will work every time you use it. However, if you use it consistently, you will give yourself the best chance to win each week. I’ve seen this strategy work in recent weeks with Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, and Marshawn Lynch, among others. This week there are a number of name quarterbacks with bad matchups, including Peyton Manning (@ Pittsburgh), Eli Manning (@ Philadelphia), and Donovan McNabb (vs NY Giants). I would start Chad Pennington (vs Seattle) or Matt Ryan (vs New Orleans) over any of these three this week in order to give my fantasy team the best chance to win.
While it’s a great idea to use this strategy in Week 10, it’s absolutely imperative that you use it during your league’s playoff weeks. How many people do you know who rode Tom Brady’s phenomenal performance to their league’s regular season title last year but lost in an early playoff round when he had a subpar game against the NY Jets? Don’t let something similar happen to you this year! Your leaguemates will not remember, much less care, what your team’s record was during the regular season.
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 10’s Sunday & Monday games:
St Louis at NY Jets - Rams’ RB Steven Jackson is once again listed as Questionable with a thigh injury - leave him out of your starting lineup this week unless you’re going to have access to your lineup just before gametime Sunday. Even if he plays, I wouldn’t start him against the Jets’ stout run Defense. Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown all should be started this week. The Jets also have injury issues - WRs Lavernues Coles (thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (shoulder) are once again listed as Questionable for this week. Although it appears Jets’ coach Eric Mangini is borrowing a page from the Bill Bellichick playbook (for several years the latter listed Tom Brady on the injury report each week with a bad shoulder) and that Coles & Cotchery will both play again this week, I’d recommend checking your rosters for healthier options. QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense should all be started this week. RB Leon Washington is once again a good bye week replacement.
Jacksonville at Detroit - The big question concerning the Lions this week (besides whether they’ll actually win a game this season) - who will start at QB this week? Incumbent Dan Orlovsky is listed as Questionable with a thumb injury, Drew Stanton has never started a game, and veteran Daunte Culpepper was just signed on Tuesday. My guess is Culpepper, but the truth of the matter is that if any of the three are in your starting lineup this week, you’re in bad shape. For the Jaguars QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones (assuming he’s not suspended), K Josh Scobee, and the Defense are all worth starting this week. WR Calvin Johnson is the only must-start Lion, although RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Shaun McDonald & Mike Furrey can be used as bye week replacements if you’re desperate.
Tennessee at Chicago - If you like defensive struggles, this game is for you! If the two teams combine for more than 35 points, I’ll be surprised. Tennessee’s Offense, already burdened by an anemic passing game, will struggle against a tough Bears’ run Defense. Regardless of whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman starts at QB, the Bears figure to have a rough time running and passing against the Titans’ Defense. Start the two Defenses - the only offensive player worth starting on either side is Bears’ TE Greg Olsen, although you can also use Titans’ TE Bo Scaife if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement. Hopefully, your fantasy team’s success this week doesn’t depend heavily on offensive players from either team.
Baltimore at Houston - Fueled by contributions from two rookies, QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice, the Ravens finally appear to have a semblance of an Offense. Rice is listed as Questionable with a chest injury, but he’s expected to start, and he’s worth starting in your fantasy lineup too if you’re lucky enough to own him. WR Derrick Mason and the Ravens’ Defense should also be started, while Flacco, RB Le’Ron McClain, TE Todd Heap, WR Mark Clayton, and K Matt Stover are adequate bye week replacements. Due to last week’s injury to QB Matt Schaub the Texans will once again be forced to rely on QB Sage Rosenfels, who is starting to remind me of injured Lions’ QB Jon Kitna (i.e. - decent fantasy stats, but you don’t want him starting for a team you’re rooting for). TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson are the only Texans worth starting this week.
New Orleans at Atlanta - Defense may be an afterthought in this game. Saints’ QB Drew Brees and WR Marques Colston definitely belong in starting lineups this week, and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia) does too if he’s finally healthy enough to play. WRs Lance Moore & Devery Henderson are also good bye week replacement options. For the Falcons RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam are all worth starting, while QB Matt Ryan, RB Jerious Norwood, and WR Michael Jenkins can all be used as bye week replacements.
Green Bay at Minnesota - The outcome of this game hinges on whether Green Bay will be able to run on Minnesota’s stout run Defense and whether Minnesota will be able to throw against Green Bay’s pass Defense. I think the latter is more likely to happen than the former, which should lead to a Vikings’ victory. Assuming that Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (Questionable - shoulder) is able to play, he should be in starting lineups this week, along with WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. TE Donald Lee is an adequate bye week replacement. For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and WR Bernard Berrian should all be started.
Seattle at Miami - I’m still trying to figure out how Seattle was able to manhandle San Francisco in Week 8. I believe this is the first instance all year when I’m unable to recommend anyone from a team’s roster for a fantasy league starting lineup. Quite the opposite for the Dolphins - QB Chad Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, K Dan Carpenter, and the Defense are all worth starting this week. Just for extra measure - TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are also decent bye week replacement options. It doesn’t get any clearer than this from a fantasy perspective . . .
Buffalo at New England - For the second week in a row I’d recommend leaving Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch out of your starting lineup. QB Trent Edwards and WR Lee Evans are the only Bills worth starting this week, although TE Robert Royal can also be used as a bye week replacement if you’re desperate. On the Patriots’ side of the ball I still don’t trust QB Matt Cassel as a fantasy starter, not even if you’re looking at him as a bye week replacement. WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker are the only Patriots I’d definitely start. RBs Kevin Faulk & Benjarvus Green-Ellis are both low-end bye week replacements.
Carolina at Oakland - Although not quite the mismatch on paper that the Seattle-Miami game appears to be, this contest ranks a close second. For Carolina QB Jake Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be started, and TE Jeff King is a low-end bye week replacement. TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting this week.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh - In keeping with the opening section Colts’ QB Peyton Manning should not be in your starting lineup this week. The Colts don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Steelers, which should lead to lots of passing attempts by Manning, but I don’t believe the results will be pretty. When the Defense knows what’s coming, especially when that Defense has a strong pass rush, it gives them a huge advantage. Of course, Manning will still complete ~20 passes to someone, which makes TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne (if he’s healthy enough to play) worth starting, and makes WRs Anthony Gonzalez & Marvin Harrison low-end bye week replacements. Things are even bleaker on the Pittsburgh side of the ball - QB Ben Roethlisberger (Questionable - shoulder) should not be started, even if he’s healthy enough to play. RB Willie Parker (Questionable - shoulder) and TE Heath Miller (Questionable - ankle) would both be worth starting if they were healthy enough to play. However, unless you’ll have access to your team’s lineup shortly before gametime, don’t take the risk. Both Defenses are worth starting in this game.
Kansas City at San Diego - Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is showing signs of improvement, but he’s still no more than a low-end bye week replacement. As usual, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are the only Chiefs worth starting. However, against a suspect Chargers’ Defense RB Jamaal Chrles and K Connor Barth are both adequate bye week replacements. For the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding are all worth starting. With WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) still hobbled, WR Vincent Jackson is a high-end bye week replacement.
NY Giants at Philadelphia - This game spotlights several exceptions to the “always start your studs” rule I discussed above. Giants’ QB Eli Manning and RB Brandon Jacobs, along with Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook, are too risky to start this week against the strong Defenses they’ll be going against. The only way I’d start any of the four is if I didn’t have another QB or RB with a better matchup this week. For those of you who say, “Wait a minute - I drafted (Player X) in the (Yth) round - I have to start him!”, think back to the idea of a sunk cost from that economics course you took (Z) years ago - that’s a convoluted way of saying “It doesn’t matter!” Your goal each week is to start the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning, and matchups like this should be avoided at all costs. That said, the underachieving Giants’ WR Plaxico Burress should be started this week, and TE Kevin Boss and WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith are decent bye week replacements. For the Eagles TE L.J. Smith and WR DeSean Jackson are worth starting, and WR Kevin Curtis is an above-average bye week replacement. Both Defenses are also worth starting.
San Francisco at Arizona - I freely admit that I can’t get my head around the idea of Arizona being a playoff team this season (especially recalling their ugly loss against the Jets in Week 4), but that’s exactly what’s going to happen, barring a total collapse in a division full of teams that will have top 10 draft picks next April. San Francisco is one of those teams, and accordingly, RB Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week. QB Shaun Hill and TE Vernon Davis can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate. The Cardinals’ Offense under QB Kurt Warner is beginning to resemble the “Greatest Show on Turf” track meets that Warner used to direct as quarterback of the Rams nearly a decade ago. Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald, K Neil Rackers, and even the Cardinals’ Defense are all worth starting given this matchup.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa
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