Wednesday Morning Quarterback - Week 11: Can the Jets stomp out the Patriots? (11/12/08)
Retired New York Giants’ defensive end Michael Strahan made news at the end of last season for his “stomp ‘em out” dance, a tribute to his team’s victory over the seemingly invincible New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42.
Thursday night the New York Jets get a chance to exorcise their own demons as they travel to Foxborough to take on the same New England Patriots. Actually, they’re not the same New England Patriots - they’re a totally different team without injured stars Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Adalius Thomas, and Rodney Harrison. Still, the fear persists among many Jets’ fans that Murphy’s Law governs this rivalry, and that their beloved team will somehow find a way to screw up their golden opportunity to seize first place. Maybe Brett Favre will throw a key late-game interception off his back foot. Maybe Randy Moss will get behind the newly-signed Ty Law late in the 4th quarter to score the game-winning touchdown. Maybe Leon Washington will fumble away a kickoff return, leading to an easy touchdown for the Patriots. Maybe inclement weather will render the Jets’ seeming advantage in the passing game obsolete.
After 40 years without so much as a league championship, it’s easy to understand why Jets’ fans would be tempted to give in to this Charlie Brown Syndrome. However, those 40 years of frustration weigh more heavily on the fans than they do on the players, none of whom (even Brett Favre) were born when Joe Willie Namath led the Jets to their historic upset of the Colts in Super Bowl 3. Different year, different situation, and (I predict) a different outcome.
Here are the players to start and avoid from this week’s Thursday night matchup of the (team formerly known as the) Titans.
NY Jets at New England
It’s easy to look at the Patriots’ run Defense (ranked 12th in the league based on 100.0 rushing yards allowed per game) and conclude the Jets will have a difficult time running the ball. Not so fast. A closer look reveals that the Patriots give up 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 19th in the league and is decidedly mediocre. This suggests that teams aren’t attempting as many rushes per game against the Patriots - perhaps that’s because they’re throwing the ball more? Again, not so fast. The Patriots’ pass Defense gives up 201.0 yards per game, which ranks 15th in the league. However, they give up 7.8 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 27th in the league and is far below average. This suggests that teams are also attempting fewer than average passes against the Patriots in a typical game. How can this be?
A quick look at the Patriots’ offensive stats reveals the answer. The Patriots average 133.0 yards rushing per game, which ranks 7th in the league and allows them to keep the ball for almost 33 minutes per game, which ranks 4th in the league in time of possession. Even though they average a middling 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, by relying on the running game as much as they do, the Patriots are able to keep the clock running, thus decreasing the number of plays run in their games and masking their defensive deficiencies.
The Jets are no slouches themselves in the time of possession department - clocking in at just over 32 minutes per game, they rank 8th in the league. Obviously, something’s gotta give, and it seems apparent that whoever rushes the ball more effectively will control the clock and ultimately win the game. I don’t like the Patriots’ chances of rushing the ball against the Jets’ Defense, which ranks 5th in both rushing yards allowed per game (76.4) and rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.2). Surprisingly, the Jets are also among the league leaders in both sacks (31) and interceptions (9). Add it all up, and I forecast a convincing Jets’ victory. Charlie Brown may never succeed in kicking the football, but I predict that Thursday night the Jets will finally give the Patriots the boot - we shall see.
Jets who should be in your starting lineup this week include QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles & Jericho Cotchery, K Jay Feely, and the Defense. The only Patriots I’d start this week would be WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss.
More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa
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