The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Continuing with last week’s theme, Week 11 offers another fine example of a great player with a potentially awful matchup - LaDainian Tomlinson goes up against the vaunted Steelers’ Defense.  The thought of not using the guy who probably went first in your draft, went for the highest price in your auction, or commanded a steep premium in a trade probably won’t sit well with most of LT’s fantasy owners.

However, I’m assuming your ultimate goals are to have fun and win your fantasy league championship (and hopefully in that order). To accomplish the latter you want to win as many games as possible during your league’s regular season to punch your ticket for your league’s playoffs as soon as possible.  Does having the number one ranked team during the regular season guarantee fantasy playoff success?  Unlike the NFL, the answer is often “no”, even if your team benefits from a first-round bye by virtue of your regular season performance.

Being among the first to qualify for your league’s playoffs gives you a huge potential advantage over your less fortunate leaguemates - the time to review your players’ matchups for your league’s playoff weeks and make any necessary roster adjustments.  Unfortunately, some owners don’t take advantage of this head start, then wonder why their playoff opponent’s team, led by Ron Dayne, defeated their star-studded roster, led by Tom Brady.  It’s all about the matchups!

Of course, those who are still fighting at this point just to get into their league’s playoffs don’t have the luxury of looking ahead - for teams in this boat, thinking ahead to this Sunday’s matchups counts as long-term thinking.  Back to the matter at hand.  If your team is currently 7-3 or better, then you’re probably very likely to make your league’s playoffs, and analyzing individual players’ matchups carefully probably isn’t high on your list of things to do.  If you’re still in the playoff chase, but are currently in a battle just to get in, you should try to find the time to analyze weekly matchups carefully and use them to your advantage.  The experience you gain doing this now will serve you well when (not if) you qualify for your league’s playoffs.

When analyzing matchups, many people merely look at the Total Rushing Yards Allowed or Total Passing Yards Allowed by a player’s upcoming opponent.  This can be misleading (see this week’s “Wednesday Morning Quarterback” post for an example using last night’s Jets-Patriots game).  You’ll be much better off if you also look at the Rushing Yards Allowed per Attempt and Passing Yards Allowed per Attempt - doing so in combination with the previous information will give you more clues regarding the odds of your players being successful.

Here are some thoughts on games and players (including LT!) for Week 11’s Sunday & Monday games:

Houston at Indianapolis - A lot has been written this week attributing Texans’ rookie RB Steve Slaton’s poor performance against the Ravens to his workload.  I’m not buying it - I attribute it to a very unfavorable matchup that played out much as you should have expected it to.  I’m back on the Slaton bandwagon this week against a weak Colts’ run Defense - Slaton, along with TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson, should be started this week.  For the Colts I’d avoid starting WRs Reggie Wayne (Questionable - ankle) and Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable - hamstring) if you have healthier options.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WR Marvin Harrison, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started and offer the potential of a big payoff.

New Orleans at Kansas City - Much has been made of last weekend’s sideline confrontation between Saints’ QB Drew Brees and TE Jeremy Shockey.  That should be nothing compared to the offensive fireworks this game should provide.  For the Saints Brees, RB Deuce McAllister, RB Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee), Shockey, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley should all be in starting lineups.  For the Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, and K Connor Barth are all worth starting.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati - Expect the Eagles to play with the “desperation” QB Donovan McNabb described during the week.  McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, WRs DeSean Jackson (Probable - groin) & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Eagles Defense should all be started.  The only Bengals who should be started this week are WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco.

Chicago at Green Bay - It doesn’t matter whether the Bears start Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton at QB - neither should be started against the Packers.  The only Bears I’d recommend this week are RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen.  Start-worthy Packers include QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.

Detroit at Carolina - I wrote several weeks ago that I thought the 1-win Chiefs were probably a worse team than the winless Lions.  Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen’s subsequent “emergence” has rendered that opinion incorrect, and as you saw above, the Chiefs actually offer a number of decent fantasy starters in a good week.  Sadly, the same cannot be said for the prideless Lions - WR Calvin Johnson now borders on auto-start status, but he’s the only one worth starting this week.  The Panthers are the badder cats in this matchup, and QB Jake Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be started.

Tennessee at Jacksonville -Titans’ QB Kerry Collins’ passing performance last week was an aberration - like the Dow at 14,000, you shouldn’t expect to see it again anytime soon.  RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, and the Titans’ Defense all belong in starting lineups this week.  The start-worthy list is even shorter for the disappointing Jaguars - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and the Jaguars’ Defense.  I’ll be surprised if the winner scores more than 21 points in this game.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Minnesota was fortunate to emerge from last week’s struggle against the division-rival Packers with a victory.  This week they’re not likely to be so fortunate against a solid Tampa Bay team.  RB Adrian Peterson and TE Visanthe Shiancoe are the only Vikings worth starting.  Buccaneers who should be in starting lineups this week include QB Jeff Garcia, TE Alex Smith (Questionable - ankle), WRs Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard, & Michael Clayton, K Matt Bryant, and the Defense.  As you might suspect, I like the Bucs to win this game.

Baltimore at NY Giants - Last week’s “Super Bowl Preview” game was the Titans against the Bears.  This week’s edition features the suddenly potent Offense of the Baltimore Ravens going against the one team that actually has won a Super Bowl in the last twelve months.  Still, I suspect this matchup will be dominated by defense.  Accordingly, the only Ravens I’d start this week would be the suddenly effective RB Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.  Unlike Kimbo Slice, the Giants may have a dominating ground game, but I would recommend looking for other RB options this week.  QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss, WR Plaxico Burress, and the Giants Defense are all worth starting.

Oakland at Miami - Last week I wrote that Miami should dominate their matchup against the hapless Seahawks - that obviously didn’t happen.  However, I believe the second time’s the charm, and I expect the Dolphins to pick up where they should have left off last week as they host the equally hapless Raiders.  The only Raiders I’d recommend starting this week are RB Justin Fargas and TE Zach Miller.  Once again, the recommended starter list is a lengthy one for the Fish:  QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, WRs Ted Ginn & Greg Camarillo, K Dan Carpenter, and the Defense.

Denver at Atlanta - I’m guessing that you don’t own either team’s Defense (unless you fell asleep in early September and your fantasy lineup still includes Tom Brady, Edgerrin James, Javon Walker, Randy McMichael, and Martin Gramatica).  Furthermore, I’m guessing that if you are the unfortunate owner of one of these Defenses, you’ll have the good sense not to start them this weekend.  That said, Broncos who should be in starting lineups this weekend include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler (Probable - groin), WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  The Falcons counter with a start-worthy crew including QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner (Probable - hand) & Jerious Norwood, WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam, who hopefully enjoys kicking in the Georgia Dome more than he did in Denver’s balmy Novembers and Decembers.

Arizona at Seattle  - Before the season began you might have looked and the schedule and guessed that this game would have playoff implications in the NFC West.  However, not many would have guessed that the team staring a division title and playoff berth straight in the eye would be the Cardinals rather than the Seahawks.  While Charlie Brown has a better chance of kicking a football out of Lucy’s hold than the Cardinals do of going deep in the playoffs, their roster still provides bountiful treasure from a fantasy perspective.  QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald, and K Neil Rackers should all be started this week.  Assuming that Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (Probable - back) finally returns this week, he should be started, along with RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WR Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - Last week I recommended benching Colts’ QB Peyton Manning against the Steelers’ Defense.  When WR Reggie Wayne hauled in that tipped pass and took it 60+ yards for a TD, I cursed the fantasy heavens, but I’d still make that similar recommendation if I had it to do over again.  This week, I get another chance to practice my “Bench your studs when they have bad matchups” philosophy, and I’m sticking to it - I would leave Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers and RB LaDainian Tomlinson out of fantasy starting lineups this week (yes, I’m sober).  For San Diego the only starters I’d recommend are TE Antonio Gates and the Chargers’ Defense.  For the Steelers, I’m not sold on the health of QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Willie Parker.  However, I’d be willing to take a chance starting the latter (depending on my other RB options), but not the former.  The Steelers’ Defense is also start-worthy, even against the high-octane Chargers’ Offense.

St Louis at San Francisco - After losing their first four games in disastrous fashion, the Rams strung together impressive wins against the Redskins and Cowboys.  All of the sudden, they appeared to be back in the playoff hunt in the mediocre NFC West.  However, three straight defeats quickly deflated any talk of the playoffs (perhaps Jim Mora will come out of retirement to coach them).  With RB Steven Jackson out once again this week, the only Rams worth starting are QB Marc Bulger, and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery.  49ers worth starting include QB Shaun Hill (yes, you read that correctly), RB Frank Gore (Probable - neck), WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson (remember them?), and K Joe Nedney.

Dallas at Washington - When these two teams met for the first time this season back in Week 4, there were plenty of great fantasy options on both teams.  Now, with both teams having been bitten by the injury bug, the picture looks a lot different.  Stay away from Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo and TE Jason Witten this week, even though both are slated to play - hopefully, you have healthier options.  WR Terrell Owens is the only Cowboy I would consider starting this week against a Redskins’ Defense that’s better than you think.  With RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee) looking increasingly unlikely to play, TE Chris Cooley and the Defense are the only start-worthy options on the Redskins’ roster.

Cleveland at Buffalo - Like Washington, Buffalo has a Defense that’s (still) better than you think (yes, in spite of the injuries).  Accordingly, TE Kellen Winslow is the only Brown I’d recommend starting this week.  Similarly, Cleveland’s run Defense is better than you think, so avoid starting Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch this week if you can help it.  QB Trent Edwards, WR Lee Evans, and the Bills’ Defense are all worth starting against a Browns’ team that was vastly overhyped before the season started on the basis of their underperforming Offense.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Tags: The Sherpa

This entry was posted on Saturday, November 15th, 2008 at 12:24 am and is filed under fantasy football, fantasy football projections, fantasy football sherpa, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football strategy blog, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.