The Fantasy Football Sherpa

During the course of a historical U.S. presidential election, President-elect Barack Obama has undoubtedly kindled a new sense of hope and optimism among many who haven’t had much to cheer about lately (at least politically).  It’s highly unlikely that he will be able to live up to all of the lofty expectations that many have for him, but his presidency holds the promise of an exciting journey.

Coincidentally, this is also the week that Cleveland Browns coach Romeo Crennel has chosen to elevate QB Brady Quinn (a John McCain supporter) to a starting role.  While it’s silly (if not downright inappropriate) to compare Quinn’s upcoming challenge to Obama’s, he too has the burden of lofty expectations placed upon him by his supporters (and employers).  The Browns are obviously not going to contend for the Super Bowl this season, so in some sense a midseason promotion may actually be better for Quinn than if he had been annointed the starter over deposed QB Derek Anderson in training camp.

Should fantasy football team owners rush out to add Quinn in hopes that he will be the next big thing among NFL quarterbacks?  Recent history cautions against this.  Even QBs who were highly touted coming out of college and eventually went on to win a Super Bowl (e.g. - Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger) almost inevitably struggle at first.  One point in Quinn’s favor - it seems that QBs who watch from the sidelines for at least a year before being thrown into the fray (e.g. - Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers) are often more successfully initially than those who don’t have that luxury  - both Mannings, Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers come to mind.

In summary, if you play in a Keeper league, Quinn is likely not available; on the off chance that he is, and you have the roster space, he’s definitely worth a speculative pickup.  However, if he’s not available, or you don’t play in a Keeper league, do what the Detroit Lions always do - pass.

Since Week 10 marks the start of the oh-so-popular weekly Thursday night games, I will offer a Wednesday Morning QB analysis of tomorrow night’s game - the regular analysis of the weekend’s game will appear, as it usually does, on Friday.

Denver at Cleveland

Neither team has been particularly effective so far this season either running the ball on offense or stopping the run on defense.  Something’s gotta give, and my guess is that both teams will make running the ball a priority in this game - particularly the Browns, who will be looking to take as much pressure of Quinn as possible.  To further confuse matters, Denver has thrown the ball well this season, and Cleveland’s Defense has given up slightly fewer than average passing yards per game.  However, a closer look reveals that teams don’t rack up quite as much passing yardage against the Browns because they’re too busy running the ball against them - you would too if you were a coach and the opposing defense were yielding 4.7 yards per carry (5th worst in the NFL).

Of course the fly in the ointment here is that it’s unclear which Denver running back will be the primary beneficiary of the Browns’ defensive largesse (so, what else is new?)  RB Ryan Torain (Probable, elbow) appears to be healthier than RB Selvin Young (Questionable, groin), but you don’t want to bet your team’s Week 10 fantasy success on either one of them - neither should be used unless you’re in dire need of a bye week replacement.  QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater are all worth starting.  Denver’s Defense is also worth using if you need a bye week replacement on the assumption that Quinn is likely to struggle in his initial start.  For the Browns RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Braylon Edwards should all be in starting lineups this week.

More to come on Friday!

The Sherpa

We finally come to the last of the bye weeks, and the last 4 teams have their byes Week 10: Cincinnati, Dallas (for whom the bye week couldn’t come at a better time), Tampa Bay, and Washington.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jeff Garcia, Jason Campbell

Running Backs

Marion Barber, Earnest Graham, Clinton Portis

Wide Receivers

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Antonio Bryant, Santana Moss

Tight Ends

Alex Smith, Chris Cooley (I’m assuming Jason Witten was already out of your starting lineup last week)

Kickers

Shayne Graham, Nick Folk, Steve Suisham

Defenses

Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Sage Rosenfels (ST), Rex Grossman (ST), Shaun Hill (SPEC), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), Tyler Thigpen (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Brady Quinn (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC),

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles (LT), Ray Rice (LT), Kevin Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC), Ryan Torain (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins (LT), Reggie Williams (ST), Rashied Davis (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Robert Royal (LT), David Martin (LT), Desmond Clark (ST), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Mason Crosby (LT), Jay Feely (LT), John Kasay (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC)

Defenses

Indianapolis (LT), NY Jets (LT)

Until next time,

The Sherpa