The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Between the seemingly nonstop coverage the last few days of the trials and tribulations of O.J. Simpson, Plaxico Burress, and (to a lesser extent) Shaun Ellis, you may be forgiven if you wonder whether there are any actual games being played this week.  Let’s get the focus back on the field, where it belongs, and hope it stays there for awhile.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 14’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Cincinnati at Indianapolis - A lot of bad football teams are said to be playing for “pride” late in the season.  Pride is no match for a motivated football team, and the Bengals figure to be no match for the Colts either.  Accordingly, there are no Bengals I would recommend starting this week (yes, that includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh).  It’s a different story for the Colts - QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense should all be started this week.

Cleveland at Tennessee - The Browns are another example of a team playing for pride, and the Titans are another example of a motivated team.  The Browns are now down to their third-string quarterback (Ken Dorsey), and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as successful as the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback (Tyler Thigpen) has been.  Then again, hopefully no embarrassing pictures will emerge of Dorsey holding a skeleton while he was in college.  At least the Browns have a player worth starting this week - that would be RB Jamal Lewis (wonder what he’s thinking this week with all the news about football players and law enforcement).  Consider yourself fortunate if you have any Titans on your roster - QB Kerry Collins, RBs Chris Johnson & LenDale White, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense are all worth starting.

Houston at Green Bay - Who will start at quarterback this week for the Texans - Sage Rosenfels or Matt Schaub?  The answer, at least from your perspective, is that it doesn’t matter - neither one should be started against a strong Packers’ pass Defense.  However, Texans’ RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should be started.  Packers worth starting this week include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (Probable - thumb), TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.

Minnesota at Detroit - The Vikings are yet another motivated team, and the Lions are yet another team playing for pride (the pride of the Lions?).  Vikings who should be in starting lineups this weekend include QB Gus Frerotte, RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  The only Lion I’d start is WR Calvin Johnson.

Jacksonville at Chicago - Jacksonville plays the role of the “pride team” in this game, while the Bears play the role of the “motivated team”.  The Jaguars don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but they should be able to amass a decent number of passing yards.  Start QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WRs Matt Jones & Reggie Williams.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, & Brandon Lloyd, and K Robbie Gould.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - In a game featuring two Offenses capable of producing big point totals, I’m actually avoiding most players on both teams - there’s just too much uncertainty given the strength of both teams on Defense.  The only Eagles I’d recommend starting are RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee, ankle) and TE L.J. Smith (Probable - hamstring).  The only Giant I’d recommend starting is TE Kevin Boss (Jeremy who?).

Atlanta at New Orleans - On paper at least this figures to be the highest-scoring game of the week, as both Offenses are high-flying, and both Defenses are suspect.  Falcons who should be started include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WRs Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, & Henry Douglas.  Saints worth starting include QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush (Probable - knee), TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley.  Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if he plays; add RB Pierre Thomas to the list if he doesn’t.

NY Jets at San Francisco - One could argue that the 49ers are more than a “pride team” since Head Coach Mike Singletary took over, but the Jets are clearly the more motivated team here. Start Jets’ QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder) & Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh), and K Jay Feely.  The 49ers’ passing game should be able to move the ball on the Jets’ Defense, so start QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce.

Miami at Buffalo - This game is the first NFL contest to be played north of the border (in Toronto), and both teams have a number of worthwhile fantasy options.  Dolphins who should be in your starting lineup include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Bills who should be started include RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell.

Kansas City at Denver - Think of this game as Atlanta-New Orleans lite - two teams with plentiful options on Offense going against Defenses that have little to no chance of stopping them.  Chiefs who should be started this week include QB Tyler Thigpen (pay attention, Ken Dorsey!), RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, and K Connor Barth.  Broncos worth starting this week include QB Jay Cutler, RB Peyton Hillis, WRs Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip), & Brandon Stokley, and K Matt Prater.

New England at Seattle  - The Patriots are the motivated team, the Seahawks are the pride team.  You know what to do by now.  Start Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker (Probable - head) & Randy Moss, K Sebastien Gostkowski, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk worth starting is TE John Carlson.

St. Louis at Arizona - St. Louis is your pride team; Arizona’s your motivated team.  Start Rams’ QB Marc Bulger (no, I’m not crazy), RB Steven Jackson (Questionable - thigh), and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery (Questionable - hip).  Cardinals who should be in your starting lineup include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin (Questionable - back), Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.

Dallas at Pittsburgh - Finally, another game between two motivated teams!  Dallas QB Tony Romo appears to be back close to full strength, and the Cowboys looked impressive in victories the last two weeks over the 49ers and Seahawks.  Still, with the strength of the Steelers’ Defense I don’t expect this game to be much of a contest, and the only Cowboy I’d recommend starting this week is TE Jason Witten.  Steelers worth starting include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, and the Defense.

Washington at Baltimore - While the Ravens’ Defense is one of the strongest in football, don’t overlook the Redskins’ Defense, which is no slouch itself.  Accordingly, there isn’t much to like in this game from a fantasy standpoint.  Start Redskins’ TE Chris Cooley and the Defense.  Start Ravens’ TE Todd Heap and the Defense.  That’s it.  The Nationals and Orioles might play a higher-scoring game than these two teams.

Tampa Bay at Carolina - Like the Redskins’ Defense, the Buccaneers’ Defense doesn’t get enough credit.  Like the Dallas-Pittsburgh matchup, I expect this to be a rather one-sided game, but with the visiting team dominating in this one.  I’d start Buccaneers’ QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard, & Michael Clayton, K Matt Bryant, and the Defense.  The only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith (yes, you read that correctly - RB DeAngelo Williams will break your heart this week if you start him against the Bucs’ Defense).

Especially since this is the first week of the playoffs for many of you, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Tags: The Sherpa

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 6th, 2008 at 4:10 pm and is filed under fantasy football, fantasy football projections, fantasy football sherpa, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football strategy blog, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.