The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Well, there was no shortage of drama during the Week 1 games - my condolences to those of you who root for the Raiders, Bills, and especially the Bengals. 

Imagine the following post-game interview in Cincinnati:

Interviewer:  “Brandon, what were you thinking as you grabbed that deflection and took off towards the end zone?”

Brandon Stokley:  “Honestly, I just wanted to get to the end zone before somebody caught me.  When I got there and realized I was going to score, I decided to run out some clock . . .”

Kanye West:  “Excuse me, Brandon, I’ll let you finish, but I just wanted to say that Franco Harris had the best TD run after a deflected pass!!!”

Stokley:  “What the f—, you little jackass - you weren’t even born until 5 years after that play happened!!!”

Interviewer:  “Back to you, Gus!”

My feeble attempt at humor aside, here are my recommendations for Week 2:

Carolina at Atlanta - I suspect there were a lot of injuries suffered Sunday by all the people jumping off the Panthers’ bandwagon.  The Eagles are obviously a talented team (especially when Donovan McNabb isn’t nursing injured ribs), but Carolina fans had flashbacks to QB Jake Delhomme’s abysmal showing against the Cardinals in last year’s playoffs (also a home game) and took a second straight poor performance as evidence that he no longer possesses the skill to quarterback even a peewee team.  While Delhomme will never rank among the game’s elite signal-callers, he has too many offensive weapons at his disposal to remain down for long.  The Falcons’ defense was impressive Sunday, but keep in mind that effort came against an overrated Dolphins offense.  Start Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith, and K John Kasay with confidence.  For those of you in deeper leagues RB Jonathan Stewart is a worthy Flex start.  For the Falcons start QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam.  In deeper leagues RB Jerious Norwood and WR Michael Jenkins should also be in starting lineups.  This should be a fairly high-scoring game - it wouldn’t surprise me if the loser scored 24-27 points.

Arizona at Jacksonville - To keep it short and sweet:  though neither team gave up more than 20 points last weekend, I’m not impressed by either defense; neither should be started this week.  Start Arizona QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower (don’t worry, Larry Fitzgerald owners - Hightower will not lead the team in receiving yards this season), and K Neil Rackers.  If you have to set your lineups well before kickoff on Sunday, I’d look for healthier alternatives than WRs Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston, both of whom are listed as questionable.  In a deep league Cardinal RB Beanie Wells and WR Jerheme Urban may also be used as a starters (assuming that both Boldin & Breaston are unable to play).  Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee. 

St. Louis at Washington - This appears to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend, even bigger than the Vikings-Lions contest.  Don’t make the mistake of remembering last season’s Rams’ upset victory against the (team-soon-to-be-formerly-known-as-the) Redskins - it’s irrelevant at this point.  Start Rams’ TE Randy McMichael if you must, but only if you must.  Redskins to start include maligned QB Jason Campbell (maybe he’ll wind up in Carolina next year?), RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  In spite of his stellar performance last week, I’m not counting on WR Antwaan Randle El to continue his success - keep him out of your starting lineup (in the unlikely event he’s even on your roster).

New Orleans at Philadelphia - This is one of the more intriguing games this weekend.  Will New Orleans’ high-powered offense be able to move the ball vs. the Eagles’ stout defense?  Will Donovan McNabb, broken(?) rib and all, play for the Eagles, and if so, how effectively?  If not, will backup Kevin Kolb be able to fill in adequately?  For the Saints I believe QB Drew Brees will have a good, but not great, game (think 250-275 yards passing and 2 TDs), so he’s still worth starting, as are RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston & Lance Moore, and K John Carney.  For the Eagles, I don’t care who starts at QB; they shouldn’t be in your lineup this weekend.  Go instead with RB Brian Westbrook, TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense (on the assumption they make several big plays).

New England at New York Jets - The Jets have been talking a lot of smack this week, probably more for their own benefit than anyone else’s.  New England will be unfazed.  Start QB Tom Brady, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  For the Jets start TE Dustin Keller and hope for the best.

Oakland at Kansas City - Here’s a game that has the potential to be high-scoring in spite of two below-average offenses.  For Oakland start RB Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and K Sebastien Janikowski.  If you’re in a deep league RB Michael Bush is also worth starting in a Flex spot.  For the Chiefs start RB Larry Johnson, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Ryan Succup.  If you’re in a deep league, consider RB Jamaal Charles for your Flex spot.

Houston at Tennessee - While at least one Texan spent last week’s dismal opener against the Jets trying to send a message to GM Rick Smith, it appeared that the whole team missed the message that the season had officially started.  Yes, the Jets’ defense backed up new Head Coach Rex Ryan’s talk with an impressive performance, but don’t believe those who are hyping this as top defense this season.  Up next - an even bigger challenge in the form of the Titans’ defense, which held the Steelers’ running game in check opening night.  If someone in your league panicked and cut Texans’ QB Matt Schaub, I’d pick him up, but I wouldn’t start him this week.  The only Texan who should definitely be in your lineup this week is TE Owen Daniels.  Titans who should be started this week include RBs Chris Johnson & LenDale White, WR Justin Gage, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deeper league, WRs Nate Washington & Kenny Britt are also worth starting.

Cincinnati at Green Bay - Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco has already announced his intention to perform a “Lambeau Leap” in the unlikely event he scores a touchdown Sunday.  If that indeed happens, here’s hoping there’s an Emily Montforto in that section to throw him back.  For the Bengals start QB Carson Palmer and WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles.  For the Packers start QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues may also want to start TE Donald Lee.

Minnesota at Detroit- Last week the Lions found themselves behind the Drew Brees and the Saints 14-0 in less time than it took South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson to interrupt Pres. Obama’s recent speech.  To their credit rookie QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, and the rest of the Lions’ offense showed some life.  While I agree with Stafford’s being picked #1 overall in last April’s draft, you can’t help but wonder if the team would have been better off taking a defensive player with their second first-round pick rather than TE Brandon Pettigrew.  Time will tell.  This game looks to be a survivor pool participant’s delight; Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Percy Harvin, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues may also want to start RB Chester Taylor and WR Sidney Rice.  Stafford and Johnson are the only Lions who should definitely be started, although those in deeper leagues may also want to consider WR Bryant Johnson.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo - No truth to the rumor that the Bills are considering Florida A&M’s LeRoy Vann with their first pick in the 2010 draft.  If Vann does end up on the Bills, hopefully he buys a place without grass.  After a heart-breaking loss to the Patriots Monday night the Bills have their home opener against a team that didn’t show much on either side of the ball against the Cowboys.  For the Buccaneers start RB Cadillac Williams, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Michael Clayton.  For the Bills start QB Trent Edwards, RB Fred Jackson, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, K Rian Lindell, and the Defense.

Seattle at San Francisco - Both teams are coming off impressive Week 1 victories, so the early-season lead in the NFC West is at stake here.  While both defenses were impressive last week, I’d expect a final score in the neighborhood of 24-21 (with the Seahawks winning).  Seahawks to start include QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh (if he’s healthy enough to play) & Nate Burleson, and K Olindo Mare.  49ers to start include QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, WR Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney.  Given his inconsistency throughout his career, I’m not buying in on TE Vernon Davis yet.

Cleveland at Denver - In spite of Denver’s improbable last-minute victory over the Bengals last weekend, there were many more warning signs than encouraging ones.  The running game never got on track, and Kyle Orton didn’t appear to be on the same page with star wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  In spite of shutting the Bengals out until the final minute I’m not sold yet on the Broncos’ defense either.  Against the Vikings the Browns looked like they picked up where last season left off, which is to say it looks to be another long season resulting in another high draft pick next April.  Browns to start include WR Braylon Edwards and K Phil Dawson.  If you’re in a deeper league, QB Brady Quinn, RB Jamal Lewis, and WR Mike Furrey are also worth starting.  For the Broncos start WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal and K Matt Prater.  If you’re in a deeper league, Orton and RB Knowshon Moreno are also worth starting (if Moreno’s healthy, I believe he’ll get more carries than RB Correll Buckhalter).

Baltimore at San Diego - This game is one of the more difficult contests to analyze for Week 2.  When you think of Baltimore, you think of their defense.  Yet, in the topsy-turvy world of the NFL, it was actually QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice and the rest of the Ravens’ offense that stole the show in their victory against the Chiefs, while the Ravens’ defense was good, but not great.  When you think of San Diego, you think of their offense, but after LaDainian Tomlinson’s ankle injury, it is the Chargers’ defense that will need to step up if San Diego wants to be competitive in this contest.  Ravens to start include Flacco, Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steve Hauschka.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RB Darren Sproles (only because of his ability to get involved in the passing game), TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.  I would leave RB LaDainian Tomlinson and his bad ankle on the bench this week; even if he is able to play, it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as he normally is against the Ravens’ run defense.

Pittsburgh at Chicago - These two teams both have major questions to be answered after their Week 1 performances.  Will the Steelers be able to generate a running game this season? (i.e. - does RB Willie Parker have anything left?  is their offensive line able to clear holes for the running backs?)  Will QB Ben Roethlisberger be able to stay in one piece if he’s forced to throw 40 times a game?  Will the Steelers’ defense be able to survive the loss of Troy Polamalu?  Will the Bears’ defense be able to survive Brian Urlacher’s season-ending wrist injury?  Will the Bears’ offense be able to survive QB Jay Cutler’s interceptions?  Steelers to start this weekend include Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  The only Bears I’d start this weekend would be RB Matt Forte & TE Greg Olsen.

New York Giants at Dallas - The moment we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived - the opening of Jerry Jones’ new tribute to himself state-of-the-art football stadium, featuring a low-hanging scoreboard that His Majesty stubbornly refuses to raise.  Unfortunately, the scoreboard controversy threatens to divert attention from the team, which should be right in the fray with the Eagles and Giants for the NFC East title.  The Buccaneers were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a suspect Cowboys’ defense, and the Giants figure to be able to do the same.  Giants to start include QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Kevin Boss, WR Steve Smith, and K Lawrence Tynes.  Those in deeper leagues should consider starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WRs Domenik Hixon & Mario Manningham as well.  I don’t expect the Cowboys to have much success running the ball against the Giants’ defensive line, so hopefully you have alternatives to RBs Marion Barber & Felix Jones.  QB Tony Romo, bad ankle and all, looks like a great start against a depleted Giants’ secondary, as do TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting WR Patrick Crayton.

Indianapolis at Miami - When’s the last time you heard people questioning the Colts’ passing game with QB Peyton Manning at the helm?  Due to WR Anthony Gonzalez’ injury during Week 1, that’s exactly what’s happening.  WR Reggie Wayne picked up the slack after Gonzalez left the game, but he’s obviously not going to be able to chalk up 10 receptions and 162 receiving yards every week.  I’ve seen numerous debates this week over whether rookie WR Austin Collie, WR Pierre Garcon, or even newly-signed WR Hank Baskett is more likely to step up in Gonzalez’ absence.  I think it’s much more likely that the Colts look to TE Dallas Clark and RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown to make up for Gonzalez’ lost production.  Meanwhile, Miami looked much more like 2007’s 1-15 team than 2008’s 11-5 team in last week’s loss to the Falcons, and I expect that to be the case throughout the season.  Colts worth starting this week include Manning, Addai, Clark, Wayne, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting Brown.  The only Dolphins I’d start this week would be RB Ronnie Brown and TE Anthony Fasano.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Tags: fantasy football sherpa, fantasy_sherpa, The Fantasy Football Sherpa's blog, The Sherpa

This entry was posted on Friday, September 18th, 2009 at 10:33 am and is filed under fantasy football, fantasy football sherpa, fantasy football strategy blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.