The Fantasy Football Sherpa

The fantasy value of team defenses is only slightly more predictable than that of Kickers.  That’s why it generally makes no sense to draft a defense until the final rounds or spend more than a dollar or two for one if you’re participating in an auction.

Still, given that most leagues require you have a defense in your starting lineup, what’s the best way to go about picking one?  The defensive events that produce the most fantasy points (i.e. - defensive and special teams touchdowns) are virtually impossible to predict.  Events such as sacks, fumble recoveries, and interceptions are nearly as difficult to project.  Thus, I find the most useful way to rank team defenses (with or without special teams included) is on the basis of total yards allowed (i.e. - rushing + passing), which is somewhat less random than total points allowed.  Again, this is at best a reasonable proxy - you’ll almost certainly change defenses at least once during the course of a season due to a bye week, and perhaps more often based on your defense’s matchup for a given week.

With all that said here is my ranking of team defenses (with or without special teams) heading into the 2010 season:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore
3. Green Bay
4. Pittsburgh
5. Minnesota
6. Dallas
7. Denver
8. Cincinnati
9. New England
10. Carolina
11. Washington
12. New York Giants
13. Houston
14. Philadelphia
15. San Diego
16. San Francisco
17. Chicago
18. Indianapolis
19. Arizona
20. Miami
21. Buffalo
22. Atlanta
23. Jacksonville
24. Seattle
25. Oakland
26. New Orleans
27. Tennessee
28. Tampa Bay
29. St. Louis
30. Cleveland
31. Kansas City
32. Detroit

One final point about defenses - many fantasy football owners like to draft a backup defense so that they’ll be covered during their primary defense’s bye week and/or have the option of playing matchups each week.  I strongly disagree with this strategy, primarily because of the random nature of a defense’s fantasy value.  It’s very difficult to predict this fantasy value over the course of a season and even more difficult to predict a defense’s fantasy value from week to week.  My recommendation - pick one you’re comfortable with in your draft our auction, ride with it until the team’s bye week, then replace it via free agency.  You may fret that you’re putting the second coming of the Bears’ 1986 defense on waivers, but that’s almost certainly not the case.  The spot you’ll save by not carrying a second defense can be put to much better use by stashing another running back or wide receiver with high upside.

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

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