Hi everyone,
Our latest football blog entry has been published on The Huffington Post! Here’s the link: http://huff.to/biFs0V
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook
“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio
Hi everyone,
Just wanted to let you know that we here in Sherpaville just had our first fantasy football blog entry published on The Huffington Post! Here’s the link: http://huff.to/cvL1oW
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook
“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio
Hi everyone, welcome to another football season! Hardly seems like it’s already been 7 months since the Saints’ Super Bowl victory, but that’s what the calendar says. I’m going to try a slightly different format to start this season, so let me know how you like it. Remember to set your lineups in time for the Thursday night game! All games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted. Here are my recommendations for Week 1:
Minnesota at New Orleans (Thurs night) - I don’t have a good feeling at all about this game from Minnesota’s perspective. Brett Favre may or may not be injured, he may or may not be in sync with his receivers, etc. New Orleans should win in a romp as they kick off their defense of the Vince Lombardi trophy. New Orleans 41 Minnesota 21.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay - An early-season Battle of the Bottom-feeders (or at least projected bottom-feeders). If Cleveland pulls off the victory, they have a good chance to start 2-0, given that they host Kansas City in Week 2. Then, we’d start to get all the “Are they for real?” stories. Then . . . Both teams feature potentially strong defenses and weak offenses - at least the Bucs have a young QB who offers hope for the future, although the health of his throwing hand is in question for this matchup. Look for Jake Delhomme to get off to a winning start with his new team as the Browns win a low-scoring game by 4 points. Cleveland 17 Tampa Bay 13.
Miami at Buffalo - Miami unveils their shiny new toy (aka Brandon Marshall). Buffalo unveils THEIR shiny new toy (aka C.J. Spiller). Buffalo’s new toy is just a bit shinier than Miami’s. Buffalo 20 Miami 16.
Cincinnati at New England - This potential playoff preview features a bunch of head-case wide receivers. New England overcomes the stories about contract dissension to win a shootout handily. New England 38 Cincinnati 27.
Indianapolis at Houston - Houston needs to win a game early in the season against a quality opponent to convince themselves (and their fans) that they’re a playoff-quality team. Once again, it’s not going to happen. Indianapolis 31 Houston 26
Denver at Jacksonville - 2 teams that figure to struggle all season. Maurice Jones-Drew puts to rest speculation that he’s injured, and Jacksonville wins a low-scoring game by a field goal. Jacksonville 20 Denver 17
Atlanta at Pittsburgh - Will the absence of Ben Roethlisberger hurt the Steelers? Will Michael Turner return to his 2008 form? The answer to both questions is yes, so Atlanta will win a low-scoring game. Atlanta 20 Pittsburgh 10
Oakland at Tennessee - Jason Campbell will improve the Oakland offense. Rolando McClain will improve the Oakland defense. That still won’t be enough for the Raiders to win, at least not this week. Tennessee 24 Oakland 14
Carolina at New York Giants - Matt Moore will prove to be a decent real-life and fantasy option this season, but the Giants win the battle of the Steve Smiths in the inaugural regular season game for the “New Meadowlands Stadium”. New York 34 Carolina 27
Detroit at Chicago - Bears’ fans and Matt Forte’s fantasy owners are both eager to see new Bears’ Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz’ system in action. Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, and Calvin Johnson put up a good fight, but Chicago wins a shootout. Chicago 37 Detroit 27
Arizona at St. Louis - Cardinals will ultimately regret cutting Matt Leinart in order to make Derek Anderson the starter, but not today. Arizona 24 St Louis 14
Green Bay at Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb silences the doubters, but his performance still isn’t enough to lead the Eagles to victory. Green Bay 38 Philadelphia 27
San Francisco at Seattle - The Pete Carroll Era in Seattle gets off to a disastrous start. Luckily for him, the NFL can’t put his team on probation. San Francisco 21 Seattle 7
Dallas at Washington (Sun night) - Will Albert Haynesworth still be a Redskin on Sunday? Can he and new Skins’ Head Coach get along? Will Donovan McNabb be healthy enough to play? It doesn’t matter - Dallas wins in a blowout. Dallas 31 Washington 10
Baltimore at New York Jets (Mon night) - Baltimore ruins both the Jets debut in their new stadium and the Rex Ryan/Darelle Revis lovefest as Gang Green gets an up-close look at what a future Super Bowl champ really looks like. Baltimore 20 New York 10
San Diego at Kansas City (Mon night) - Kansas City finally has enough weapons on offense to be competitive, but not enough to overcome Philip Rivers and the Chargers. San Diego 34 Kansas City 27
Good luck to your teams this weekend!
The Sherpa
The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook
“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio
Hi everyone!
I’ll be co-hosting our weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time. Here’s the link you can use to listen: http://bit.ly/bwZg6o. The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”. Tonight we’ll be going through the Week 1 schedule game by game and making our recommendations in Yes/No/Maybe So format, so get your questions in ahead of time, and we’ll answer them on the show!
My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation. You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). We’ll also be hosting a 2nd fantasy football league for our show’s listeners tomorrow night at 9:15pm Eastern on Yahoo - contact us if you’re interested in matching wits with Jana and the Sherpa!
If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program. Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax!
Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!
Hope you’re able to tune in!
Scott (The Sherpa)
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
Hi everyone,
Fantasy football draft season is in full swing, and many of you have drafts coming up Labor Day weekend. One “trend” I’ve noticed this season is more and more fantasy football team owners using their first-round draft picks on QBs, with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and even Peyton Manning often being taken by owners wanting to lock in top-tier production from their quarterback spot. Does it make sense to do this? Does the time-honored adage “always take a RB in the first round” still hold? Let’s take a closer look.
There are 2 commonly-used arguments to justify taking a QB in the first round:
Let’s take a closer look at both these arguments.
In response to the first argument, it’s undoubtedly true that the trend in the NFL over the past few seasons has seen teams moving away from the single workhorse RB approach and going with the RBBC approach instead. If we define the “single workhorse RB approach” to include all teams for which the lead rusher is projected to gain at least 65%-70% of his team’s rushing yards, then by my count there are 13 teams using the RBBC approach heading into the 2010 season, which is up from 10 teams heading into the 2009 season.
That said, the basic economic principle of supply and demand suggests that when the supply of a desirable commodity (in our case the workhorse running back) goes down, the corresponding demand for that desirable commodity should increase, not decrease. Thus, it would appear that drafting QBs earlier in response to the decrease in supply of workhorse RBs is exactly the opposite of what should occur.
The second argument is a bit trickier to deal with. First, let me bring up the idea of “position scarcity”. Unfortunately, this term is overused and abused in fantasy circles. To me position scarcity can be defined as the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position.
If you accept this definition of position scarcity, then if you make a list of players’ projected 2010 fantasy points in descending order by position (using your league’s particular scoring system, of course), you’ll almost certainly find that there’s a greater decrease in fantasy values between top-rated and mid-level RBs (or top-rated and mid-level WRs) than there is between top-rated and mid-level QBs. This will be the case even though the increasing use of RBBCs has increased the fantasy values of mid-tier RBs relative to what they were just a year or two ago.
If that’s the case, the opportunity cost (i.e. - the value of the option you don’t choose when you make a decision) is greater for passing on a RB (or WR) in the first round of a draft than it is for passing on a QB. In other words, even though QBs generally score more fantasy points than RBs and WRs under many fantasy scoring systems, your fantasy team will be better off overall at the end of your draft if you start out by taking a RB (or a WR) than if you grab one of the top names at QB.
A quick caveat - in order to make this analysis complete, we would need to look at not only supply/demand and position scarcity, but also the relative consistency in actual vs. expected fantasy values among the top options across the different positions. That consistency, of course, will depend on the particulars of your league’s scoring system, but based on the analysis I’ve done, generally speaking the slightly greater consistency among top QBs vs. top RBs and top WRs is not enough to overcome the supply/demand and position scarcity issues.
So, unless your league has “highly unusual” roster requirements (e.g. - start 2 QBs and 1 RB) or point values (e.g. - 6 points for a passing TD, but only 3 points for a rushing or receiving TD), your fantasy team will still better off at the end of your draft if you take a top-tier RB (or WR) with your first round pick than it will be if you use that same pick on a top-tier QB.
Wishing everyone a great holiday weekend and good luck in your upcoming drafts!
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio