The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Just three or four weeks left in the regular season for most fantasy football leagues.  Depending on your current position in the standings, it’s time to get your roster set for the playoffs, make that final push for the playoffs, or play the role of spoiler.  This week’s Thursday night contest pits Miami and Carolina.  Here are my recommendations for Week 11:

Miami at Carolina - With RB Ronnie Brown now out for the season, it’s RB Ricky Williams’ time to shine.  Let’s just hope that with all the pressure that comes with being the featured running back, Ricky will be able to stay away from the temptations that have sidetracked him in the past.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Williams is the only Dolphin worth starting this week - leave QB Chad Henne and WRs Greg Camarillo & Davone Bess on your bench.  Panthers to start include RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WR Steve Smith, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Jake Delhomme.

Seattle at Minnesota - This game features the latest installment in the Steve Hutchinson vs. Nate Burleson contest (if you ignore the fact that the two players facing their former teams won’t be on the field at the same time).  Although Burleson has shown some signs of life this season, the Vikings definitely got the better of the team-switching that took place after the 2005 season.  Seahawks to start include QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson, and WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Burleson.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WR Deion Branch.  RB Julius Jones (Out-ribs) will miss the game.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, & Percy Harvin, and K Ryan Longwell.

Indianapolis at Baltimore - Indy managed to remain undefeated last week by pulling off an escape that David Blaine and Criss Angel couldn’t match.  Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick deserves a huge assist, of course, but even before his late-game brain freeze, the Colts had closed a 31-14 gap to a 34-28 deficit in less than one quarter.  This will be the weekend that the Colts’ luck finally runs out.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, and WR Reggie Wayne should all be started for the Colts.  WRs Austin Collie & Pierre Garcon can also be started in deeper leagues.  Keep RB Donald Brown and WR Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable-knee) out of your lineup.  Ravens to start include QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steven Hauschka.  WR Mark Clayton can also be started by those in deeper leagues.  I’d avoid RB Willis McGahee.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - A few weeks ago we put the spotlight on the website FireDickJauron.com.  What happens to such a website when the targeted coach actually does get fired?  Glad you asked.  Somewhere Turk Schonert is laughing.  New Bills’ Head Coach Perry Fewell - consider yourself forewarned.  Bills to start this weekend include RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Fred Jackson.  Jaguars to start include RB Maurice “Kneel-Down” Jones-Drew (the Jets should have picked him up and forcibly carried him into the end zone) and WR Mike Sims-Walker.  QB David Garrard, and WRs Mike Lewis & Torry Holt can be started in deep leagues. 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Even though he’s one of the top tight ends in football, Kellen Winslow has made just as many headlines for comparing himself to a soldier or criticizing the Cleveland Browns as he has for his ability on the field.  Still, in spite of playing for a team almost as hapless as the Browns, Winslow is quietly putting together an outstanding season.  The Bucs have been much more competitive in their last two games, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine them handing the Saints their first loss of the season.  Saints to start include QB Drew Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, K John Carney, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Devery Henderson & Robert Meachem.  Leave RB Mike Bell on the bench.  The only Bucs worth starting are RB Cadillac Williams and Winslow (Questionable-knee).  QB Josh Freeman and WRs Maurice Stovall & Sammie Stroughter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Derrick Ward and WR Antonio Bryant (Questionable-knee) on the bench.

Atlanta at New York Giants - It’s been a slow week over at Big Blue Interactive, a blog for Giants’ fans.  Bloggers have been reduced to dissecting the Giants’ post-bye-week record in the Tom Coughlin era.  Fortunately for these hard-core fans, the Giants are back on the field this week to face a team with an identical record and identical post-season ambitions.  The Falcons will have a tough time overcoming the loss of star RB Michael Turner (Doubtful-ankle) - even though RB Jason Snelling filled in admirably last week against the Panthers, look for the Giants to finally post their sixth win.  Falcons to start include Snelling, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Roddy White.  Leave QB Matt Ryan on the bench, and don’t expect RB Jerious Norwood (Questionable-hip) to contribute much this week if he’s able to return.  Giants to start include QB Eli Manning, RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw, TE Kevin Boss, WR Steven Smith, and K Lawrence Tynes.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham and the Defense.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City - It’s been a strange week for Chiefs’ fans (assuming that such a species still exists).  First, recently-released RB Larry Johnson signed on with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Then, star WR Dwayne Bowe was suspended for four games, allegedly because he took a diuretic in an effort to appease new Head Coach Todd Haley by losing weight.  Now the Steelers come to town fresh off a loss to the division-leading Bengals.  Put it all together and the Chiefs should be in store for another long afternoon culminating in another loss.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, & Mike Wallace, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  There are absolutely no Chiefs I’d want to start in this game - that list includes QB Matt Cassel, RBs Jamaal Charles & Koby Smith, TE Sean Ryan, and WRs Chris Chambers, Mark Bradley, Lance Long, & Bobby Wade.  Hopefully, you are not a Chiefs fan who stacked their roster with players from the hometown team - if so, chances are you’re already looking ahead to next season for both your fantasy team and your real team.

San Francisco at Green Bay - With his team 5-4 even after last Sunday’s beat-down of the Cowboys, you’d think Packers’ Head Coach Mike McCarthy would be focused solely on making the playoffs.  However, McCarthy is being accused of playing a role in the recent firing of a long-time Packers’ maintenance worker, who apparently does not have much of a future as a motivational speaker.  The Packers should have all the motivation they need for this week’s contest with the 49ers:  with the Vikings in control of the division and showing no signs of faltering, Green Bay is going to have to fight its way into the playoffs as a wild card.  Coming off a Jay Cutler-aided win against the Bears, the 49ers (4-5) have even less margin for error if they hope to be involved in the playoffs.  The only 49ers to start against a Packers’ defense that’s better than you think are RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis.  Leave QB Alex Smith and WRs Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, & Isaac Bruce (Probable-ankle) on the bench.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WR James Jones.  Leave the Packers tight end on the bench, regardless of whether it turns out to be Jermichael Finley (Probable-knee), Donald Lee, or Spencer Havner.

Cleveland at Detroit - In a play that’s indicative of how the entire season’s gone for the Browns, WR Josh Cribbs (Questionable-neck) was injured on the final play of the Browns’ 16-0 Monday night loss to the Ravens.  The real question isn’t whether Ravens’ DE Dwan Edwards delivered a cheap shot; it’s what the Browns were thinking by having arguably their best offensive weapon on the field for a meaningless kick return on the final play of a game they had absolutely no chance of winning.  It’s easy to second guess, but one could argue that was a much worse decision than Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick’s choice to go for it on 4th-and-two from his 28 yard line.  Meanwhile, the Lions, who, before Week 8’s game against the Rams, hadn’t been favored since Week 1 of the 2008 season, are now favored for the second time in four weeks.  The only Brown who’s a must-start this week is RB Jamal Lewis (Questionable-ankle), who’s probably busy counting the days to retirement.  QB Brady Quin, and WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Mike Furrey can be started in deeper leagues.  Lions to start include QB Matt Stafford, RB Kevin Smith, TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Calvin Johnson, K Jason Hanson, and the Defense.  WR Bryant Johnson can also be started in deeper leagues.

Washington at Dallas - It’s not every day that an NFL player is called “classless” by another NFL player, especially one who’s been arrested for illegal possession of a firearm and aggravated assault against a police officer.  Yet that’s exactly what happened when Redskin RB Rock Cartwright drew the ire of former Cowboy DT Tank Johnson by dancing on the star at midfield to celebrate the Redskins’ upset victory following their final visit to Texas Stadium.  Chances are the Cowboys, playing the first of their traditional two home games during Thanksgiving week, will be the ones celebrating following this game.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, RB Ladell Betts (Probable-ankle), TE Fred Davis, and WR Santana Moss.  RB Clinton Portis (Questionable-concussion) is likely to miss his second consecutive game, and TE Chris Cooley (Out-ankle) will definitely miss his third consecutive game.  Cowboys to start include RBs Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, & Felix Jones and TE Jason Witten.  Leave QB Tony Romo and WRs Roy Williams & Miles Austion on the bench.

Arizona at St. Louis - Cardinals QB Kurt Warner can be forgiven if he has a sense of deja vu.  He’s already beaten one of his former teams this season (the Giants); this week he gets his first of two shots against the Rams, the team he led to victory in Super Bowl XXXIV (although some Titans fans apparently still haven’t accepted that fact).  Warner and the Cardinals figure to have their way with the Rams, who put up a surprisingly good fight last week against the undefeated Saints.  Cardinals to start include Warner, RBs Tim Hightower & Chris Wells, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.  Rams to start include QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  Those in deeper leagues can also take a flier on WRs Brandon Gibson & Danny Amendola.

San Diego at Denver - Before this season began many fantasy football analysts, including yours truly, figured that Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson would bounce back strong this season from the toe injury that plagued him last season.  That hasn’t turned out to be the case.  Maybe he is still bothered by his injury.  Maybe it was just the ravages of time.  Or perhaps he never recovered from his workouts with Kimbo Slice.  Whatever the cause, LT managed to turn back the clock for at least one day in last week’s victory over the Eagles.  Was that performance a fluke or a sign of more good things to come?  This week’s contest against the free-falling Denver Broncos should be a good test.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RBs Tomlinson & Darren Sproles, and TE Antonio Gates.  Leave WRs Vincent Jackson & Malcom Floyd on the bench as they go against a tough Broncos secondary.  The only Bronco worth starting is RB Knowshon Moreno, although RB Correll Buckhalter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave QB Kyle Orton (Questionable-ankle) and WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal on the bench.

Cincinnati at Oakland - It’s hard to imagine where the Bengals got their newfound strength from.  WR Chad Ochocinco’s rededication to football?  Head Coach Marvin Lewis’ leadership?  DT Domata Peko’s Samson-like hair?  Whatever the source, the Bengals figure to have more than enough muscle to push aside the Raiders this weekend and retain their perch at the top of the AFC North.  Bengals to start this weekend include QB Carson Palmer, RB Bernard Scott, WRs Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, & Andre Caldwell, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deep league and a speculative mood, take a chance and start newly-acquired RB Larry Johnson.  Leave RB Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) on the bench even if he’s able to play.  The only Raider I’d start is TE Zach Miller.  Leave RBs Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, & Darren McFadden and WR Chaz Schilens on the bench.  The quarterback switch from JaMarcus Russell to Bruce Gradkowski won’t make much of a difference - Gradkowski, like Russell, also struggles mightily in the accuracy department, and like Russell, he doesn’t belong in your lineup (or on your roster).

New York Jets at New England - Following his decision to go for the first down on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard-line in last week’s game against the Colts, Bill Belichick has been second-guessed to death by every talking head and person with access to a keyboard.  In spite of that, he’s still had a better week than Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino.  The Jets beat the Patriots 16-9 in Week 2, but look for the Patriots to win this rematch handily.  Jets to start include RBs Thomas Jones & Shonn Greene and TE Dustin Keller.  Leave QB Mark Sanchez and WRs Braylon Edwards & Jerricho Cotchery on the bench.  Patriots to start include QB Tom Brady (Probable-coach with a brain-crampshoulder), RB Laurence Maroney, TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  Fred Taylor (Questionable-ankle) and Sammy Morris (Questionable-knee) will miss another week.

Philadelphia at Chicago - Following his five-interception performance last week against the 49ers, Bears QB Jay Cutler was criticized by a multitude of people, including Hall of Fame quarterback Fran Tarkenton, who seems to be making a living these days by speaking ill of current NFL players.  The Bears, losers of two straight, host the Eagles, another team that’s lost two in a row and appears headed in the wrong direction.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, and K David Akers.  WR Jeremy Maclin and the Eagles’ Defense can also be started in deeper leagues.  RB Brian Westbrook (Out-concussion) has more important things to deal with right now than getting back on the football field.  Bears to start include Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Greg Olsen, and WR Devin Hester.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox.

Tennessee at Houston - Titans owner Bud Adams just can’t seem to stay out of the news.  Earlier this season he publicly requested that Head Coach Jeff Fisher replace struggling QB Kerry Collins with QB Vince Young.  Apparently emboldened by Young’s 3-0 record as a starter, Adams decided to push the envelope even further, flipping off Bills’ fans at the end of the Titans’ victory.  In the era of Hammurabi’s Code, Adams would have had both his middle fingers cut off; in the era of Roger Goodell, Adams was fined $250K (or $125K per finger), which probably would have paid for the surgical reattachment of his middle fingers many times over.  We’ll see if the Titans will be motivated this week to win one for the Flipper.  The only Titans to start this week are QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson, but those in deeper leagues can also start TE Bo Scaife and WRs Kenny Britt & Nate Washington.  The injury status of WR Justin Gage (back) is unknown, but he should be left out of lineups even if he’s able to play.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.  If WR Jacoby Jones (Questionable-calf) is able to play, he’s also worth starting in deeper leagues, but RB Ryan Moats should be left on the bench in all leagues.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

Another week with six teams having a bye, including the Bills, Browns, Raiders, and Rams.  It will be interesting to see how many owners latch onto the NFL’s latest trend and apologize this week for their team’s poor play.  Here are my recommendations for Week 9:

Washington at Atlanta - According to Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell, it’s easier for the team to play on the road.  That’s not surprising - it must be hard to call signals when you’re being drowned out by the boos of your home crowd.  Campbell gets his wish this week as Washington and their underrated defense take on an underachieving Atlanta offense.  Redskins to start include Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, fill-in TE Fred Davis, WR Santana Moss, and K Shaun Suisham.  TE Chris Cooley (Out-ankle) will miss at least another three weeks.  Falcons to start include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White (Questionable-knee), and K Jason Elam (assuming the Falcons’ coaching staff forgives him for his missed FGs against the Saints).  RB Jerious Norwood (Questionable-hip) is a long-shot to play and should not be in your lineup this weekend.

Kansas City at Jacksonville - Chiefs fans’ disgust with suspended RB Larry Johnson apparently knows no bounds - there’s actually a petition circulating to stop him from becoming the Chiefs’ all-time leading rusher.  No word on whether potential replacement RBs Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith have signed yet.  Chiefs to start against the struggling Jaguars’ defense include QB Matt Cassel, TE Sean Ryan, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Ryan Succop.  Charles and WR Bobby Wade can also be started in deep leagues, but I’d leave Smith and the newly-acquired WR Chris Chambers out of starting lineups.  Jaguars to start include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Mike Sims-Walker, and K Josh Scobee.  WRs Torry Holt and Mike Thomas can also be started in deeper leagues.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay - With the Brett Favre circus now behind them, the Packers can turn their attention to more important matters, such as helping Tampa Bay in its quest for a second winless season.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers (Questionable-feet), RB Ryan Grant, WRs Donald Driver (Questionable-neck) & Greg Jennings, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  TEs Donald Lee & Spencer Havner can also be started in deeper leagues, but expect TE Jermichael Finley (Questionable-knee) to be out for at least another week.  The only Buccaneer I’d recommend starting this week is TE Kevin Winslow, although those in deeper leagues can also consider starting RB Cadillac Williams and WRs Antonio Bryant (Probable-knee), Michael Clayton (Probable-wrist), and Sammie Stroughter.  Leave QB Josh Freeman and RB Derrick Ward out of your lineups.

Miami at New England - You would think that after his record-setting kickoff returns last week against the Jets that WR Ted Ginn would be back in the good graces of all Dolphins’ fans.  Rest assured, that is not the case.  Miami figures to be in for a long day against the Patriots - RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams are the only Dolphins who should be in starting lineups this weekend.  Leave QB Chad Henne, TE Anthony Fasano, and WRs Ginn, Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, & Greg Camarillo on the bench (or waivers).  Patriots to start include QB Tom Brady (Probable-will this charade never end?shoulder), WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RB Laurence Maroney, TEs Ben Watson (Questionable-back) & Chris Baker, and the Defense.

Houston at Indianapolis - Houston actually won its game last weekend against the Bills, but you would never know that given all the handwringing this week over RB Steve Slaton’s fumbling problem.  Face it, it’s highly unlikely that either RB Ryan Moats or RB Chris Brown will keep Slaton on the bench for long.  Now that TE Owen Daniels has been lost for the season, the Texans have an even greater need for a back who’s also a receiving threat (i.e. - Slaton).  That said, I would only start Slaton this week if I didn’t have better alternatives - it’s possible he doesn’t play as many snaps as he usually would, but I still believe he’ll see the bulk of the backfield work for Houston.  Texans who should be in your starting lineup this week include QB Matt Schaub and WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter.  Leave Moats, Brown, and replacement TE Joel Dreessen out of your lineup.  Colts to start this week include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, and WR Reggie Wayne.  RB Donald Brown, WR Austin Collie, and the Colts’ Defense can also be started in deeper leagues.  I would not start WRs Pierre Garcon & Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable-knee).

Baltimore at Cincinnati - Ray Lewis may not have a future as a contestant on So You Think You Can Dance, but he and the rest of the Ravens’ defense have less pressure on them than in the past thanks to the emergence of the offense under second-year QB Joe Flacco.  This week the Ravens get a chance to avenge a loss earlier this season to the Bengals, and they should do so.  Ravens to start this week include Flacco, RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap (Questionable-ankle), WRs Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, & Kelley Robinson, and K Steven Hauschka.  The Defense can also be started in deeper leagues, but I wouldn’t start RB Willis McGahee this week (or any other week, unless something happens to Rice).  The only sure-fire Bengal starters this week are QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco, although WR Laveranues Coles may also be started in deeper leagues.  I would not start RB Cedric Benson against the Ravens’ defense.

Arizona at Chicago - Noted diabetic Jay Cutler gave blood at the office last Sunday thanks to an illegal hit by Browns’ LB Kamerion Wimbley.  This week it will be Arizona’s turn to see whether they can extract a pound of flesh from the Bears’ offense.  Cardinals to start include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Steve Breaston (Questionable-knee), and K Neil Rackers (Questionable-hamstring), assuming he’s healthy enough to play.  RB Chris Wells is also a good start in deeper leagues.  I would leave WR Anquan Boldin (Questionable-ankle) on the bench this week.  Bears to start include Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Greg Olsen (Questionable-ankle), WR Devin Hester (Questionable-ankle), and K Robbie Gould.  WRs Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox can also be started if you’re in a deeper league and need a one-week fill-in.

Carolina at New Orleans - Not many NFL players can claim that people go out of their way to make jokes at his expense.  Unfortunately for Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, he’s one of them.  Kidding aside, Delhomme figures to be in for another rough week against the Saints’ pass defense and should not be started.  The only Panthers worth starting this week are RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Questionable-Achilles’) and WR Steve Smith.  TEs Jeff King & Dante Rosario and WRs Muhsin Muhammad (Questionable-knee) & Dwayne Jarrett don’t belong in starting lineups either.  Saints to start include QB Drew Brees, RB Pierre Thomas, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney.  RB Mike Bell is also worth starting in deeper leagues.  I’d leave WRs Lance Moore (Questionable-ankle), Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson out of your lineup.

Detroit at Seattle - Seahawks’ WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh is unhappy with his lack of involvement in Seattle’s offense.  Maybe this shouldn’t come as a big surprise, given that Houshmandzadeh announced earlier this year that he’s “boycotting” Madden 2010.  Given the injuries to their key players, perhaps the Lions should consider boycotting this game.  QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable-knee) and WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-knee) are both worth starting if they’re healthy enough to play.  Ditto for RB Kevin Smith (Questionable-shoulder), who may miss the game.  If Smith can’t play, consider starting RB Maurice Morris in a favorable matchup against his former team.  TE Brandon Pettigrew & WR Bryant Johnson should also be considered as starters by those in deeper leagues, but leave WR Dennis Northcutt on the bench.  Seahawks to start include QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-ribs), TE John Carlson, WRs Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, K Olindo Mare, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RBs Julius Jones & Justin Forsett and WR Deion Branch.

Tennessee at San Francisco - Titan QB Vince Young is not a man to be messed with.  In spite of barely having seen the field the last season and a half, Young still managed to garner one vote in the election to determine the NFL’s dirtiest player.  Presumably, Young’s vote came courtesy of a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense.  Young gets a chance to bolster that reputation this weekend against a shaky San Francisco secondary and could be in for a big day.  Titans to start include Young, RB Chris Johnson, and WRs Justin Gage & Kenny Britt.  TE Bo Scaife and WR Nate Washington can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB LenDale White out of your lineup - his 15 rushing TDs last season now seem like a distant memory.  49ers’ QB Alex Smith should also be in for a big day against a bad Titans’ secondary.  He should be started, along with RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WR Michael Crabtree, and K Joe Nedney.  WRs Josh Morgan & Isaac Bruce, along with the 49ers’ Defense, can also be started in deeper leagues.

San Diego at New York Giants - Now that the Chris Chambers Era is over in San Diego, WR Malcom Floyd should get many more opportunities to shine.  Just don’t expect that to happen this weekend against the reeling Giants - leave Floyd out of your starting lineup.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates (Questionable-foot), WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.  The only Giants I’d start for sure this weekend would be RB Brandon Jacobs and TE Kevin Boss (Questionable-ankle).  RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle, foot) and WR Steve Smith can also be started in deeper leagues, but I’d leave QB Eli Manning and WRs Mario Manningham (Questionable-shoulder) & Hakeem Nicks on the bench this week.

Dallas at Philadelphia - Much has been made this week of the fact that Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo and WR Roy Williams “aren’t on the same page”.  Thankfully for the Cowboys, the emergence of WR Austin Miles has made that less of an issue than it might have been otherwise.  Cowboys to start in this week’s matchup include Romo, RB Marion Barber (Probable-thumb), TE Jason Witten, Miles, and K Nick Folk.  Williams should also be started in deeper leagues.  I’d leave RBs Tashard Choice and Felix Jones on the bench.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, RBs Brian Westbrook (Probable-concussion) & LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, WRs DeSean Jackson (Probable-foot) & Jeremy Maclin (Probable-foot), and K David Akers.

Pittsburgh at Denver - Broncos’ WR Eddie Royal is another player who came into the season with high expectations and has fallen off the fantasy football map.  Fortunately for both Royal and the Broncos, rather than spout off in the press, he’s been keeping himself busy with his Facebook page.  Steelers to start in this Monday Night Football contest include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, and WR Hines Ward, recently voted the “dirtiest player in the NFL”.  I would not start RBs Rashard Mendenhall & Willie Parker or WRs Santonio Holmes & Mike Wallace.  The only Broncos I’d definitely start would be QB Kyle Orton & Brandon Marshall, although TEs Tony Scheffler & Daniel Graham and WR Royal can also be considered by those in deeper leagues.  Leave RBs Knowshon Moreno & Correll Buckhalter on the bench.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

Thankfully, not too many serious injuries from Week 5, but we still have another bye week to deal with.  Teams with a Week 6 bye are Dallas, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and San Francisco.  Players with injuries or a bye week include

QB

• Matthew Stafford (inj?)
• Kyle Boller (inj)
• Tony Romo (bye)
• Peyton Manning (bye)

RB 

• Darren McFadden (inj) 
• Correll Buckhalter (inj) 
• Felix Jones (bye, inj)
• Glen Coffee (bye, inj)

WR 

• Calvin Johnson (inj?) 
• Johnny Knox (inj?)
• Devin Hester (inj?) 
• Roy Williams (bye, inj) 
• Reggie Wayne (bye)
• Pierre Garcon (bye)
• Ted Ginn (bye)

TE

• Kevin Boss (inj?)
• Jason Witten (bye)
• Dallas Clark (bye)
• Vernon Davis (bye)

K 

• Nick Folk (bye)
• Adam Vinatieri (bye, inj)

 DEF

• Dallas
• Indianapolis
• Miami
• San Francisco

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season.  An asterisk (*) indicates a player whose team has a bye this week.

Quarterbacks

Marc Bulger (LT), Shaun Hill (LT *), Jason Campbell (LT), Josh Johnson (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC *), Derek Anderson (SPEC), Kevin Kolb (SPEC), Vince Young (SPEC), Seneca Wallace (SPEC), Josh Freeman (SPEC), and Matt Leinart (SPEC).

Running Backs

Jamal Lewis (LT), Sammy Morris (SPEC), Chris Wells (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC), Jerious Norwood (SPEC), Chester Taylor (SPEC), Mike Bell (SPEC), Laurence Maroney (SPEC), Justin Fargas (SPEC), Justin Forsett (SPEC), Rashad Jennings (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Ryan Moats (SPEC), Shonn Greene (SPEC), Bernard Scott (SPEC), Aaron Brown (SPEC), Marcus Mason (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Miles Austin (LT *), Donnie Avery (LT), Sidney Rice (LT), Mark Clayton (LT), Jeremy Maclin (SPEC), Austin Collie (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Hakeem Nicks (SPEC), Antoine Caldwell (SPEC), Michael Clayton (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Muhsin Muhammad (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Mike Wallace (SPEC), Mohamed Massaquoi (SPEC), Deion Branch (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC *), Greg Camarillo (SPEC *), Josh Morgan (SPEC *), Louis Murphy (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Julian Edelman (SPEC), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC), Kelley Washington (SPEC), Bryant Johnson (SPEC), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Keenan Burton (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Zack Miller (SPEC), Sean Ryan (SPEC), Brandon Pettigrew (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC), Ben Watson (SPEC), Randy McMichael (SPEC), Chris Baker (SPEC).

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Robbie Gould (ST), Jason Hanson (ST), John Carney (ST).

Defenses

Carolina (ST), Jacksonville (ST), St. Louis (ST).

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 6 games on Thursday.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

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Lots of mismatches and a few interesting contests on tap for Week 5.  Here are my recommendations:

Cleveland at Buffalo - With Wednesday’s trade of enigmatic WR Braylon Edwards to the Jets it’s pretty obvious who’s calling the shots in Cleveland.  Unfortunately for the Browns, neither the players nor the draft picks they received from the Jets are likely to alter the course of this once-proud franchise.  The best their fans can hope for in this case is the proverbial “addition by subtraction”.  Sadly, this weekend’s game against the struggling Bills is almost certainly the Browns’ best chance for a victory prior to their Nov. 22 contest in Detroit, a game in which they would now figure to be the underdogs.  The only Brown who should be in starting lineups this weekend is RB Jerome Harrison, although QB Derek Anderson and WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Mike Furrey can be started by those in deeper leagues.  Avoid RB Jamal Lewis (Questionable-hamstring), even if he is healthy enough to play.  Buffalo figures to be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against Cleveland’s defense.  QB Troy Edwards, RBs Fred Jackson & Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Terrell Owens, and the Bills’ Defense should all be started. 

Cincinnati at Baltimore - Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco has recently been making more news for his Twitter account than he has for his exploits on the field.  That may change this weekend against a Ravens’ pass defense that isn’t as good as you might think.  The Bengals don’t figure to have much success running against the Ravens, giving them even more incentive to take to the air.  QB Chad Palmer and WRs Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles are all worth starting.  Avoid RB Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) even if he is healthy enough to play.  The Ravens’ offense has unexpectedly transformed itself into the “Air Flacco” show.  Accordingly, QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, K Steven Hauschka, and the Defense should be in starting lineups.

Washington at Carolina - The official word from the Redskins is that this week’s hiring of offensive guru Sherm Lewis is meant to provide Head Coach Jim Zorn with “a fresh set of eyes”.  Unfortunately for Zorn, it’s difficult to see this as anything other than the beginning of the end of his tenure as Head Coach.  Zorn, Lewis, and the rest of the ‘Skins should get a reprieve this weekend in the form of a date with the Panthers’ porous defense.  QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense should all be started.  The only Panthers worth starting are RB DeAngelo Williams and WR Steve Smith, although RB Jonathan Stewart (Questionable-Achilles’) can also be started in deeper leagues if he’s healthy enough to play.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia - Besides his on-field exploits, Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb is also well-known for the series of Chunky Soup commercials he and his mom have filmed (yes, that’s the late, great Harry Kalas on the voice-over).  Unfortunately for McNabb, Campbell’s still hasn’t come up with a flavor that will make a cracked rib heal faster.  Unfortunately for the visiting Bucs, it doesn’t figure to make much difference who starts at quarterback for the Eagles this week; the visitors figure to come out on the short-end of the score yet again.  The only Buc who should definitely be in your starting lineup this week is TE Kellen Winslow.  RBs Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward (Probable-knee) can be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid RB Earnest Graham (Questionable-hamstring) and WRs Antonio Bryant (Questionable-knee) & Michael Clayton (Questionable-ribs).  For the Eagles, McNabb (Probable-ribs), RB Brian Westbrook (Probable-ankle), TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense should all be started.  If QB Kevin Kolb is forced to start again in place of McNabb, substitute him for McNabb on this list.  RB LeSean McCoy can also be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid WR Kevin Curtis (Probable-knee) even if he’s healthy enough to play.

Oakland at New York Giants - While it’s obvious the Raiders could use an upgrade over QB JaMarcus Russell, former Raider QB (and now former Eagle QB) Jeff Garcia recently took himself out of the running.  I know this will come as a shock to all of you, but there are no Raiders I’d recommend for your starting lineup this weekend.  If you’re in a deep league, RBs Michael Bush & Justin Fargas can be started, and if the Giants are forced to start QB David Carr in place of QB Eli Manning (Questionable-foot), you can add the Raiders’ Defense to that list.  If Manning is healthy enough to play, he’s definitely worth starting, but if Carr is forced to start, do the smart thing and stay away.  Either way, RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle, knee) are worth starting, as are TE Kevin Boss, K Lawrence Tynes, and the Defense.  I would avoid starting WR Steve Smith this weekend if you have other options with favorable matchups.  Smith will likely be shadowed by Raiders’ shutdown CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and especially if Carr is the quarterback, you’ll want nothing to do with Smith this week.

Minnesota at St. Louis - If you happened to miss last Monday night’s showing of “Revenge Game - Favre Gets Even”, fear not.  You can have your own Skybox Suite on the 30 yard line at Lambeau Field (seats 20) for November 1st’s “Revenge Game - The Return of Favre” for a mere $35,000.  The Vikings don’t have their official bye week until Week 9, but they have something almost as taxing this weekend - a game against the Rams, who figure to battle the Raiders all season long for the first choice in next April’s draft.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, K Ryan Longwell, the Defense, and the equipment manager.  RB Chester Taylor and WRs Percy Harvin & Sidney Rice can also be started in deeper leagues.  The only Rams I’d consider starting are RB Steven Jackson and TE Randy McMichael.  If WR Donnie Avery (Questionable-hamstring) is able to play, he should be started in deeper leagues.  No matter whether the Rams decide to go with QB Marc Bulger (Questionable-shoulder) or QB Kyle Boller (Questionable-judgment), you don’t want either one within a country mile of your roster, much less your starting lineup.

Dallas at Kansas City - Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo is used to having his intelligence questioned publicly.  Whether it’s his taste in women, his play selection late in tight games, or even his ability to count to four, Romo is a lightning rod for criticism.  Fortunately, Romo and his teammates get a reprieve this weekend in the form of a date with the winless Chiefs.  Cowboys to start include Romo, RB Marion Barber (Probable-thigh), TE Jason Witten, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.  Add WR Roy Williams (Questionable-ribs) to the list if he’s able to play.  If Williams is unable to play, then WR Patrick Crayton should be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid starting RBs Felix Jones (Questionable-knee) and Tashard Choice.  Chiefs to start include RB Larry Johnson, TE Sean Ryan, and WR Dwayne Bowe.  QB Matt Cassel can be started in deeper leagues.

Pittsburgh at Detroit - Daunte Culpepper is likely to be the Lions’ starting quarterback on Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, and the Lions have sold out the game.  No, the two facts are not related (or at least I hope they aren’t).  I suspect this may end up being a de facto ninth home game for the visitors, but if that allows the good citizens of Detroit to watch Culpepper overthrowing his receivers on live television, then so be it.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  Avoid RB Willie Parker (Questionable-toe) even if he is able to play.  The only Lions worth starting are TE Brandon Pettigrew and WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-thigh), assuming the latter is healthy enough to play.  Avoid RB Kevin Smith (Probable-shoulder) and the Lions’ starting quarterback, whether that turns out to be Culpepper or Matthew Stafford (Questionable-knee).

Atlanta at San Francisco - Parties to a stalled negotiation are often encouraged to “think outside the box”, but representatives of the 49ers and newly-signed rookie WR Michael Crabtree may have taken this advice to new extremes by including M.C. Hammer in the talks that resulted in Crabtree’s signing.  Hammer’s role in the negotiations is unclear, but Crabtree’s role in this weekend’s game against the Falcons is crystal clear:  none.  The 49ers have already announced Crabtree won’t play until Week 7 at the earliest, and it’s unwise to count on him contributing anything substantial to your fantasy team in 2009.  Leave him to someone else in your league to speculate on.  Falcons to start this weekend include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Roddy White.  WR Michael Jenkins can be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid K Jason Elam (Questionable-hamstring).  49ers to start include RB Glen Coffee, TE Vernon Davis, and K Joe Nedney.  If you’re in a deeper league, then QB Shaun Hill and WRs Josh Morgan & Isaac Bruce are also worthy starters.

New England at Denver - The Broncos have already had two improbable game-winning receptions this season on their way to a 4-0 record, one each by WRs Brandon Stokley and Brandon Marshall.  Incredibly, the Broncos have yet another wide receiver named Brandon on their roster, but their luck will run out this weekend as they suffer their first defeat at the hands of the visiting Patriots.  Patriots to start include QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulderthanks, Mr. Belichick), TE Ben Watson, WR Randy Moss, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  Add WR Wes Welker (Questionable-knee) to the list if he’s able to play; add WR Julian Edelman to the list if Welker can’t play.  RB Fred Taylor (Out-ankle) may be done for the season, but since his replacement isn’t clear (my guess would be Laurence Maroney), don’t speculate, and leave all Patriot running backs out of your lineup this weekend.  The only Bronco definitely worth starting is Marshall, although QB Kyle Orton and RB Knowshon Moreno can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Correll Buckhalter (Questionable-ribs) and WR Eddie Royal out of your lineups.

Houston at Arizona - Some will look at this matchup as a battle for wide receiver supremacy between Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  Others will look at two teams with explosive offenses and mediocre defenses and wonder whether the 2009 Texans may be capable of following in the 2008 Cardinals’ footsteps and ending their season with an appearance in the Super Bowl.  I prefer to look at it as a game that could well be the most entertaining contest of the weekend.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniel, WRs Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.  Cardinals to start include QB Kurt Warner (Probable-shoulder), WRs Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, and K Neil Rackers.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Questionable-knee) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.  RBs Tim Hightower and Chris Wells can also be started in deeper leagues. 

Jacksonville at Seattle - When Seattle last hosted a game at Qwest Stadium, their lime-colored alternate jerseys sent many viewers scurrying for the remote.  Hopefully, the Seahawks’ marketing department was given this week off, and the team will take the field in their regular bland jerseys.  While this game may not feature quite the offensive firepower of the Texans-Cardinals game, it also figures to be a high-scoring contest.  Jaguars to start include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Mike Sims-Walker & Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee.  QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-ribs) looks likely to return this week, and he should be started if he does in order to take advantage of a very favorable matchup.  Ditto for Seahawks’ backup QB Seneca Wallace if Hasselbeck suffers a setback and is unable to play.  Other Seahawks to start include TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, and K Olindo Mare.

Indianapolis at Tennessee - With the Titans off to an 0-4 start speculation has already begun on how soon Head Coach Jeff Fisher will replace quarterback of the past Kerry Collins with quarterback of the (past and) future Vince Young.  While the Titans will undoubtedly be fired up for this Sunday night contest, in all likelihood they will fall to 0-5 against a Peyton Manning-led offense that is hitting on all cylinders in spite of the absence of WR Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable-knee).  Colts to start include Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and K Adam Vinatieri.  RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown and WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie can also be started in deeper leagues.  The only Titan I’d definitely start would be RB Chris Johnson, although Collins, RB LenDale White, and WRs Justin Gage & Kenny Britt can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave WR Nate Washington (Probable-concussion) on the bench.

New York Jets at Miami - Brett Favre’s feud with the Packers has nothing on Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan’s feud with Dolphins’ LB Channing Crowder.  Unfortunately, only one from that pair will be able to get on the field to determine the game’s outcome, but at least the media will have something to talk about besides the game itself.  The other story that figures to get a lot of play during the ESPN telecast is the Jets’ acquisition of troubled WR Braylon Edwards (will we be subjected to a Braylon-cam?).  Edwards figures to make a minimal contribution this week even if he does start, so leave him out of your starting lineup unless you have no other alternatives.  Jets to start include RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and the Defense.  QB Mark Sanchez can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Thomas Jones out of your lineups for this matchup with a tough Dolphins’ run defense.  The only Dolphins worth starting are RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams and the Defense (I’d be surprised if the winner of this game scores more than 21 points).  Since QB Chad Henne figures to struggle against the Jets’ defense, leave him and all Dolphins’ receivers on the bench this week.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Week 4 of the NFL season is history, and we’re dealing with both injuries and the second of seven bye weeks.  Teams with a Week 5 bye are Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego.  Players with injuries or a bye week include

QB

• Matt Hasselbeck (inj)
• Eli Manning (inj?)
• Matthew Stafford (inj?)
• Marc Bulger (inj)
• Jay Cutler (bye)
• Aaron Rodgers (bye)
• Drew Brees (bye)
• Philip Rivers (bye)

RB 

• Frank Gore (inj)
• Darren McFadden (inj) 
• Correll Buckhalter (inj) 
• Mike Bell (inj, bye)
• Jamal Lewis (inj)
• Felix Jones (inj)
• Matt Forte (bye)
• Ryan Grant (bye)
• Pierre Thomas (bye)
• LaDainian Tomlinson (bye)
• Darren Sproles (bye)

WR 

• Roy Williams (inj?) 
• Devin Hester (bye)
• Johnny Knox (bye)
• Earl Bennett (bye)
• Greg Jennings (bye)
• Donald Driver (bye)
• Marques Colston (bye)
• Vincent Jackson (bye)

TE

• Greg Olsen (bye)
• Jeremy Shockey (bye)
• Antonio Gates (bye)

K 

• Robbie Gould (bye)
• Mason Crosby (bye)
• John Carney (bye)
• Nate Kaeding (bye)

 DEF

• Chicago
• Green Bay
• New Orleans
• San Diego

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season.

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), Seneca Wallace (ST), Daunte Cullpepper (ST), Kyle Boller (ST), Josh Johnson (ST), Chad Henne (SPEC), Kevin Kolb (SPEC), Derek Anderson (SPEC), David Carr (SPEC), Vince Young (SPEC), Josh Freeman (SPEC), Tyler Thigpen (SPEC), and Matt Leinart (SPEC).

Running Backs

Jerome Harrison (LT), Michael Bush (ST), Justin Fargas (ST), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerious Norwood (SPEC), Rashad Jennings (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Laurence Maroney (SPEC), Ryan Moats (SPEC), Shonn Greene (SPEC), Justin Forsett (SPEC), Bernard Scott (SPEC), Aaron Brown (SPEC), Marcus Mason (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Donnie Avery (SPEC), Louis Murphy (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Muhsin Muhammad (SPEC), Mohamed Massaquoi (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Julian Edelman (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC), Kelley Washington (SPEC), Bryant Johnson (SPEC), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Sidney Rice (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Jeremy Maclin (SPEC), Keenan Burton (SPEC), Greg Camarillo (SPEC), Deion Branch (SPEC), Austin Collie (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss (LT), Sean Ryan (SPEC), Ben Watson (SPEC), Chris Baker (SPEC), Brandon Pettigrew (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC).

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Rian Lindell (ST), Joe Nedney (ST), Adam Vinatieri (ST), Jeff Reed (ST), Josh Scobee (ST).

Defenses

Washington (ST), Buffalo (ST).

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 5 games on Thursday.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Lots of injuries to deal with and the first of the 7 bye weeks as we head into Week 4.  Here are my recommendations:

Detroit at Chicago - It just seems like every celebrity with a Chicago connection is in Coopenhagen for the International Olympic Committee’s vote on the host city for the 2016 Summer Games (what, no Ditka?).  Regardless of the outcome of the IOC’s vote Friday, the Windy City should be celebrating a Bears’ victory over the Lions Sunday afternoon.  WR Calvin Johnson is the only Lion who should definitely be started, although if RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - shoulder) is healthy enough to play, he should also be started.  If Smith is unable to play, then RB Maurice Morris should be started by those in deeper leagues, as should QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and WR Bryant Johnson.  Bears to start include QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Garrett Olsen, K Robbie Gould, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deeper league or dealing with bye week holes in your lineup, WRs Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, & Johnny Knox can also be started.

Oakland at Houston - Oakland Head Coach Tom Cable’s world is not a happy place right now.  His team is 1-2 (with the victory coming over the equally hapless Kansas City Chiefs), his quarterback JaMarcus Russell is showing no signs of improving in his third season, and oh, in case you haven’t heard, he’s in a bit of legal trouble too.  Hostile work environment or not, Coach Kimbo Cable and his merry band of Raiders will be in Houston this week looking to slow down the Texans’ aerial attack.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider who should be in starting lineups this weekend, although if you’re in a deeper league RBs Darren McFadden & Michael Bush can be started too.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Defense.   

Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio is another Head Coach who’s been in the news lately for non-football-related activities:  he recently put a stop to QB David Garrard’s fledgling career as a radio personality.  While Garrard’s stint as a talk show host probably aren’t to blame for Jacksonville’s 1-2 start, he figures to have just as much fun watching film of the Titans’ pass defense (or lack thereof) heading into this matchup.  Titans to start include QB Kerry Collins (going against the Jaguars’ equally passive pass defense), RB Chris Johnson, WR Justin Gage, and K Rob Bironas.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RB LenDale White and WRs Kenny Britt & Nate Washington.  Jaguars to start include Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Torry Holt & Mike Sims-Walker, and K Josh Scobee.

Tampa Bay at Washington - As if the embarrassment of helping the Lions end their 19-game losing streak last weekend weren’t enough, the calls for the end of the Jim Zorn Era have increased in volume.  In a sign of how the season has gone this far for 0-3 Tampa Bay, RB Cadillac Williams (Probable-knee) is the healthiest of their three running backs (Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham are both listed as Questionable).  Williams and TE Kellen Winslow are the only players who should be started from the Bucs, who have decided to end the Byron Leftwich Era after just three games.  Second-year QB Josh Johnson gets the start, but before you get too excited, realize that he’s probably just keeping the seat warm for rookie QB (and fellow Josh) Freeman, who figures to be starting at some point later this season.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  If Clinton Portis (Questionable-calf) is able to play, he should also be started.  If he isn’t, then RB Ladell Betts should start in deeper leagues.

Baltimore at New England - Outside of QB Tom Brady predicting which Patriot players are going to have fantasy value from one week to the next is a bit like watching the old game show The New Treasure Hunt.  Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco has looked impressive through three weeks, but will he continue to shine against the tough Patriots’ defense, or will he become this week’s fantasy football version of a booby prize?  My bet would be on the former, and I would start him this week along with RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steve Hauschka.  I don’t believe RB Willis McGahee will be able to hold his fantasy value going forward, but if you’re in a deeper league or have a lineup spot to fill due to a bye week, by all means plug him in.  The only Patriots I’d consider must-starts this week are Brady and K Stephen Gostkowski.  TEs Ben Watson & Chris Baker can be started by those in deeper leagues, while WRs Randy Moss (Questionable-back), Wes Welker (Questionable-knee), & Julian Edelman should only be in your starting lineups if you’ll be able to make changes if needed right before Sunday’s kickoff.

New York Giants at Kansas City - While Peyton Manning, quarterback of the 3-0 Indianapolis Colts, is still generally acknowledged as the superior quarterback, little brother Eli Manning, quarterback of the 3-0 Giants has been playing well enough to revive the comparisons.  The Giants, playing their third consecutive road game, should have little trouble attacking the Chiefs’ defense both on the ground and through the air.  Giants to start include Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Kevin Boss, WRs Steve Smith & Mario Manningham, K Lawrence Tynes, and the Defense.  Avoid RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle/foot).  With WR Dwayne Bowe (Questionable-hamstring) likely to miss his second straight contest, there are no Chiefs I’d recommend for your starting lineup this week.  Depending on bye weeks and how deep your league is, you may be forced to consider QB Matt Cassel, RBs Larry Johnson & Jamaal Charles, and WRs Bobby Wade & Mark Bradley, but for your sake, I certainly hope that’s not the case.

Seattle at Indianapolis - Am I the only person who’s surprised Seahawks’ kicker Olindo Mare still has a job this week?  Sure, Seahawks Head Coach Jim Mora subsequently backed away from his initial rant after Mare missed two field goals in last week’s loss to the Bears, but for a minute it looked like he was going to challenge his father’s infamous “Playoffs” rant for family supremacy in the “Blowing a Gasket” category.  It looks as though Seahawks’ QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-ribs) will miss yet another week, so QB Seneca Wallace can be started, along with RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, and Mare.  Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Pierre Garcon, and K Adam Vinatieri.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - Back in 2006 Eric Mangini was the toast of New York after leading the Jets to the playoffs in his first year as Head Coach.  But the days when even Tony Soprano would go out of his way to meet the “Mangenius” are quickly becoming a distant memory.  Unlike their cousins in “On the Clockdom”, the Lions, it’s hard to see anything positive about the future of football in Cleveland at this stage.  Bengals to start against Team Inept include QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  WR Braylon Edwards’ prospects may improve slightly with QB Derek Anderson taking over the reigns from QB Brady Quinn; Edwards is the only Brown I’d want in my starting lineup this week.  Those facing byes or playing in deeper leagues should also consider starting Anderson, RB Jerome Harrison, and WR Mike Furrey.

Buffalo at Miami - The Bills’ preparations for this game have been overshadowed by two sideshows:  (1) the return of RB Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch, and questions about how this will affect RB Fred Jackson’s playing time, and (2) the silly, pointless feud between WR Terrell Owens and former player/current NBC studio analyst Rodney Harrison.  All of the nonsense threatens to eclipse what should be one of the weekend’s more entertaining games.  Bills to start include QB Trent Edwards, WRs Lee Evans & Owens, and K Rian Lindell.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider RBs Jackson & Lynch, and WR Josh Reed.  New Dolphins’ QB Chad Henne should be started along with RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.

New York Jets at New Orleans - Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez has had an amazing year already:  winning the Rose Bowl, appearing in GQ, and becoming the first rookie in NFL history to win his first three starts.  Still, even the most diehard of Jets’ fans has to realize that Sanchez will not win every game he starts for the J-E-T-S (I’ll spare you the rest).  Reality will most likely hit this weekend, as the Jets travel to face the Saints and QB Drew Brees(y) in the Big Easy.  In spite of both teams’ defenses being ranked in the top 10 through three games, I expect this to be a fairly high scoring game (perhaps 34-21) with the Saints prevailing.  Jets to start include Sanchez, RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and K Jay Feely.  I’d stay away from RB Thomas Jones because I don’t think the Jets will be able to run the ball successfully, but those in deeper leagues s hould also consider WR Chansi Stuckey.  Saints to start include Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney.  WRs Devery Henderson & Robert Meachem can also be started by those in deeper leagues.

St. Louis at San Francisco - The Rams have looked so woeful in losing their first three games that one wonders whether even Captain Sullenberger could guide them to victory.  RB Steven Jackson and TE Randy McMichael are the only Rams you should consider for your starting lineup this week.  QB Marc Bulger (Questionable-shoulder) is unlikely to play, but even if he does, you should avoid starting him unless you’re in the deepest of leagues.  Same story with his potential replacement, QB Kyle Boller, WR Donnie Avery (Questionable-ribs), and WR Keenan Burton.  Someone will have to catch passes for the Rams this week besides Jackson and McMichael, but at the moment it’s not clear who.  49ers to start include QB Shaun Hill, replacement RB Glenn Coffee, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Josh Morgan, K Joe Nedney, and the Defense.

Dallas at Denver - Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones, apparently not content to be out of the news when his team is playing away from its new pleasure palace, has proclaimed that RB Marion Barber (Probable-thigh) will play this week.  Perhaps Barber truly is healthy after missing Monday night’s victory over the Panthers, and perhaps Jones is just launching a pre-emptive strike against Barber’s “softness”.  Either way, I would avoid starting Barber this week unless I were in a deep league and didn’t have other options.  Since RB Felix Jones (Questionable-knee) will most likely miss this week’s game, that leaves RB Tashard Choice as a must-start almost by default, along with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, WRs Roy Williams & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk.  Broncos to start include QB Kyle Orton, RBs Knowshon Moreno & Correll Buckhalter, WRs Eddie Royal & Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - Speaking of running backs and injuries, “Not So Fast” Willie Parker’s career has been marred by them, although thankfully he’s never had an injury like the one suffered by USC tailback Stafon Johnson.  Parker (Questionable-toe) turned in one of his better recent efforts last weekend in the Steelers’ heartbreaking loss to the Bengals, but appears unlikely to play Sunday night.  The Chargers know a thing or two about running back injuries themselves - RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Questionable-ankle) may try to play this week, but he’s unlikely to be effective against the Steelers’ run defense.  The Chargers figure to emphasize their passing game, so start QB Philip Rivers, RB Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, and K Jeff Reed.  Parker replacement RB Rashard Mendenhall is also worth starting in deeper leagues.

Green Bay at Minnesota - Former Packers’ quarterback/current Vikings’ quarterback Brett Favre can claim that he’s not out for revenge in this contest, but that’s probably just a case of semantics (which is my diplomatic way of saying “I don’t buy it”).  Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has no need to be fueled by revenge, but he figures to spend most of his time throwing the ball rather than testing the Vikings’ tough run defense.  Packers to start include Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (who figures to be active in the passing game), WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.  Vikings to start include Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Percy Harvin, and K Ryan Longwell.  RB Chester Taylor and WR Sidney Rice can also be started in deeper leagues.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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This week marks the last week containing a full slate of games before we start heading into the dreaded bye weeks (4-10).  Here are my recommendations for Week 3:

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - The “news” heading into last weekend’s Bengals-Packers game centered around whether  Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco would follow through on his stated intention of performing a “Lambeau Leap” if he scored a TD.  Of course, many were wondering how the Packer faithful would respond to such a mockery of their tradition.  Now we know - Ochocinco bought seats for several Bengals’ fans in the front row of the end zone just in case.  No mention of whether he also paid for the guy sitting next to them who made the obscene gesture that probably made television sports editors around the country apoplectic.  Overshadowed by this circus is the fact that the Bengals appear to be a competitive team this season.  Steelers to start in this matchup include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WR Santonio Holmes, and the Defense.  WR Hines Ward is listed as Questionable, but if he’s able to play, he belongs in starting lineups as well.  Bengals to start include QB Carson Palmer, WRs Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles, and the Defense.  RB Cedric Benson & WR Chris Henry are both listed as Questionable, but regardless of whether they play or not, they shouldn’t be in starting lineups this weekend. 

Jacksonville at Houston - Jaguar WR Troy Williamson’s season-ending injury has paved the way for WR Mike Sims-Walker to enter the starting lineup.  Sims-Walker gives QB David Garrard another option in the passing game, but more importantly, he combines with RB Maurice Jones-Drew to give the Jaguars two sure-fire first-teamers on the All-Hyphen team.  Trades for Darius Heyward-Bey and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are said to be in the works.  Jaguars to start include Garrard, Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Torry Holt & Sims-Walker, and K Josh Scobee.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniel, WR Andre Johnson, and K Kris Brown.  WR Kevin Walter (Questionable) may return for the Texans, but he’s too much of a health risk to use in your starting lineup this week. 

Cleveland at Baltimore - So, Eric Mangini - how is that whole keeping your starting QB’s identity secret right up until gametime thing working out for you?  Not so well?  Maybe you should try it with another position (e.g.- who will be the Browns’ Kicker this week?  Phil Dawson?  Lou Groza?  John St. Clair?)  The Browns seem well on their way to another Top 5 draft pick, and things don’t figure to improve this week against the Ravens.  QB Brady Quinn and WR Braylon Edwards are the only Browns worth starting this week.  For the Ravens QB Joe Flacco, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, K Steve Hauschka, and the Defense should all be started.  I’d stay away from the Ravens’ RB mess if I could, although I’d still start Ray Rice before I’d start Willis McGahee.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay - Going into the season the main concern re: the Giants’ offense was whether their passing game would show enough to keep opposing defenses honest and prevent them from overplaying the Giants’ vaunted ground attack.  With the performance of WRs Steve Smith (who is well on his way to shedding his “Other” moniker) and Mario Manningham (people forget he was a human highlight reel at Michigan), those concerns appear to have been unfounded.  The party should continue this week against the Buccaneers’ defense.  Giants to start include QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs (who should finally break out and have a big game worthy of his lofty status in fantasy football drafts), TE Kevin Boss, WRs Smith & Manningham, K Lawrence Tynes, and the Defense.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw can also be started at FLEX for those in deeper leagues.  Buccaneers worth starting include QB Byron Leftwich, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Michael Clayton.  As with the Ravens, I’d avoid the Tampa Bay backfield situation if I could.  However, if forced to choose, I still like RB Derrick Ward’s prospects more than Cadillac Williams’.

San Francisco at Minnesota - So, Brett Favre feels the $125K in fines levied against Eric Mangini, Mike Tannenbaum, and the Jets were “unfair”?  Fine, let’s see him dip into his own sizeable wallet and cover them.  There was absolutely no reason for him to rehash something now that occurred last season.  Of course, the NFL fined those involved for abusing the NFL’s injury report system.  Two questions:  (1) Who exactly is supposed to benefit from this system?  Opposing teams?  Gamblers?  Fantasy football team owners? (2) Where was the NFL all those years that New England Head Coach Bill Belichick was listing Tom Brady as “Probable” with a shoulder injury week after week?  I guess there’s a difference between “abusing” the injury report system and making a mockery of it - good to know.  I’ll admit that I’m not impressed by San Francisco’s fast start against the NFC W(eak)est - accordingly, WR Isaac Bruce is the only 49er I’d definitely start this week.  Yes, that’s right, I’d leave RB Frank Gore (Questionable), his 270 yards rushing, and his gimpy ankle on your bench this week, especially against Minnesota’s run defense.  QB Shaun Hill is worth starting in deeper leagues or those requiring a second starting quarterback.  For the Vikings start QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson (Questionable with a bad back, but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Percy Harvin, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  RB Chester Taylor is an option in deeper leagues and will be a must-start in all leagues in the unlikely case Peterson isn’t able to play.

Atlanta at New England - Apparently, opposing defenses aren’t the only ones to feel the wrath of Tom Brady (or at least those close to him).  Cross him at your own peril (I wonder if he was listed as “Probable” for his own wedding). This figures to be a good test of just how far the young Falcons’ team has come.  Are they a legitimate Super Bowl contender, or just another team with some talented players that will ultimately shrivel up in the spotlight?  My bet would be on the former.  Falcons to start this week include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam.  WR Michael Jenkins can also be started by those in deeper leagues.  Patriots to start include Brady, TE Ben Watson, WR Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski.  If WR Wesley Welker is able to play, he should also be started; if not, his replacement WR Julian Edelman should be more than serviceable.

Green Bay at St. Louis - Green Bay looked determined to turn Bengals’ defensive end Antwan Odom into an All-Pro last Sunday, but in spite of that, almost won the game.  The outcome should be much better this week for the Packers as they face the Rams, another team seemingly destined for a top five pick in next April’s college draft.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  Rams worth starting are RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, and WRs Donnie Avery & Laurent Robinson.

Kansas City at Philadelphia - When people talk about most 0-2 teams, the discussion centers around what the team needs to do to “turn around their season” and qualify for the playoffs.  The Chiefs aren’t one of those teams - their playoff chances are a longer shot than this one.  Meanwhile, the nattering nabobs of negativism are out in force in Philadelphia following QB Donovan McNabb’s rib injury and the Eagles’ loss last weekend to the Saints.  Have no fear, Philly fans, even with half of your starting skill position players out or listed as Questionable, you’ll still win this game with ease.  The only Chief worth starting is WR Dwayne Bowe, while Eagles to start include QB Kevin Kolb, TE Brent Celek, K David Akers, and the Defense.  If McNabb (Questionable-ribs), RB Brian Westbrook (Questionable-ankle), WR DeSean Jackson (Questionable-groin), or WR Kevin Curtis (Questionable-knee) play, they are worth starting too.  If Westbrook doesn’t play, RB LeSean McCoy is worth starting.  In case you’re wondering, this blog is a Vick-free zone until said player actually does something that makes him relevant from a fantasy perspective.  Lining up in the Wildcat a few times a game and vulturing an occasional touchdown run doesn’t qualify as making him relevant from a fantasy perspective.

Washington at Detroit- Former Tampa Bay Buccaneer Head Coach John McKay, whose team lost 26 consecutive games during the 1976 and 1977 season, was once asked what he thought of his team’s execution.  He reportedly replied, “I’m all for it!”  Lions’ fans, who’ve now seen their team lose 19 games in a row and 25 out of 26, could be forgiven for expressing similar sentiments.  Many are pointing at this weekend’s game against a lackluster Redskins’ offense as a great opportunity to break the streak.  Sorry, Lions’ fans, I don’t see it happening, even if Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell (Questionable-foot) is unable to play.  But take heart, though - the Lions still have home games remaining against both the Rams and the Browns, so I think there’s a great chance the streak will be over sooner rather than later.  Redskins worth starting include Campbell (assuming he plays), RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Steve Suisham, and the Defense.  WR Calvin Johnson is the only must-start Lion, but if you’re in a deeper league, QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew can be started if you’re desperate.

New Orleans at Buffalo - Every baseball season some player inevitably hits two home runs on Opening Day, and some scribe who thinks they’re funny writes, “Joe Blow is on pace to hit 320 homers this season!”  This year we’ve seen something similar taking place with Saints’ QB Drew Brees, who, we’re constantly reminded, is currently on pace to throw 72 touchdown passes this season (the single-season record is 50, set by Tom Brady during his amazing 2007 season).  Of course, facing the Bills’ pass defense, there’s no reason Brees can’t add another 3-4 touchdown passes to his total during this game.  Start Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney, then let the good times roll.  I’d stay away from RBs Pierre Thomas (Probable-knee) & Mike Bell (Questionable-knee), as well as WR Lance Moore (Questionable-hamstring), due to injury concerns.  Bills to start include QB Trent Edwards, RB Fred Jackson, WRs Lee Evans & Terrell Owens, and K Rian Lindell.

Chicago at Seattle - Continuing with the baseball analogies, after two games of the 2009 season Bears’ RB Matt Forte is like last year’s batting champ who’s hitting below .200 at the end of April.  Expect that to change in a hurry starting this weekend against the Seahawks.  Bears to start include QB Jay Cutler, Forte, TE Greg Olsen, K Robbie Gould, and the Defense.  I’d stay away from the Bears’ wide receivers, but if you must, I’d rank them Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Johnny Knox in order of desirability.  The only Seahawks worth starting are TE John Carlson and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable-back).

Miami at San Diego - Not since the heyday of former Charger running back Natrone Means has such a force been present in the San Diego backfield as was seen last Sunday.  Unfortunately for Chargers’ fans, the force I’m referring to is Ravens’ linebacker Ray Lewis, who made one of the most amazing game-ending plays you’ll ever see.  Fortunately for Chargers’ fans, this week’s opponent doesn’t possess a player able to wreak similar havoc and destruction (no, Jason Taylor doesn’t count).  Dolphins to start this week include RB Ronnie Brown and WR Ted Ginn.  If you play in a deeper league, RB Ricky Williams can also be started.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RB Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense.  RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Questionable-ankle) should not be started this week even if he is able to play.

Tennessee at New York Jets - Interesting sidelight to this game:  Titans’ Head Coach Jeff Fisher served as an assistant in the late 1980s under Buddy Ryan, father of current Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Of course, neither Fisher nor Ryan will play a down on Sunday, but this should be one of the more interesting games of Week 3.  Can the Titans avoid starting the season 0-3?  Can the Jets shut down Titans’ RB Chris Johnson and convince the lingering doubters (including me) that they’re for real?  I expect a low-scoring game - let’s see what happens.  The only Titans I’d start are Johnson and the Defense.  The only Jets I’d start for sure are TE Dustin Keller and the Defense, although in deeper leagues QB Mark Sanchez (Probable-knee), RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, and WR Jerricho Cotchery can be started.  Stay away from this game from a fantasy perspective if you can, and enjoy it as a fan.

Denver at Oakland - It’s hard to overstate just how bad Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell is.  His career completion percentage is 51.8% based on 488 passing attempts.  This season he’s barely completed one-third of his passes through two games.  Bring in the backup QB, you say?  That would be Bruce Gradkowski, who has a stellar-by-comparison 53.1% career completion percentage based on 375 passing attempts.  In case you were wondering, the NFL average is ~61%.  Of course, Jeff Garcia, the one QB on the Raiders’ roster who had a decent career completion percentage (61.6% on 3,676 attempts) is now a former Raider, supposedly because he wasn’t content to serve as Russell’s backup.  Can you blame him?  Meanwhile, I know much has been made of the Broncos’ tandem of Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, but as with the Jets, 49ers, and to a lesser extent, the Vikings, I’m not buying the 2-0 start.  If WRs Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley are just as involved in the passing game as WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, there’s something seriously wrong.  The only Broncos I’d start for sure would be Marshall and Royal, though those playing in deeper leagues can also start QB Kyle Orton, and RBs Knowshon Moreno & Correll Buckhalter.    Raiders worth starting include RB Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RB Michael Bush and WR Louis Murphy.

Indianapolis at Arizona - Normally, it would be tempting to pick against a team coming off a Monday night game that’s flying across several time zones to play its next game.  However, the Colts’ offense was on the game for less than one quarter of their victory over the Dolphins, and the defense was going to be hard-pressed to shut down the Cardinals’ aerial circus even under the best of circumstances.  Expect a final score that resembles a low-scoring college basketball game rather than an NFL game.  Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and K Adam Vinatieri.  Cardinals to start include QB Kurt Warner, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.

Carolina at Dallas - This battle of the maligned quarterbacks figures to be one of the most interesting games of the weekend.  Can QB Jake Delhomme and the Panthers avoid an 0-3 start?  Can QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys win their first game in Jerry World?  I’ll answer no and yes, respectively.  Panthers to start include Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay.  Cowboys to start include Romo, RBs Felix Jones & Tashard Choice, TE Jason Witten, WRs Roy Williams & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk.  I would leave RB Marion Barber (Questionable-thigh) on your bench even if he is able to play.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Week 2 of the NFL season is now in  the books, and we have several new “impact players” who have suffered injuries.  Unfortunately, this early in the week it’s unclear whether most of these players will be able to contribute for Week 3.  Many of you have your weekly waiver periods before the NFL releases its injury reports.  You may be wondering what to do if your roster includes any of the following:  QBs Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, or Jason Campbell; RBs Frank Gore, Marion Barber, Cedric Benson, Mike Bell, or LaDainian Tomlinson; WRs Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter, or Antonio Bryant.

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season.

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme (LT), Mark Sanchez (LT), Matthew Stafford (LT), Brady Quinn (LT), Kevin Kolb (ST), Seneca Wallace (ST), Chad Henne (SPEC), and Matt Leinart (SPEC).

Running Backs

Michael Bush (LT), Tashard Choice (ST), Bernard Scott (ST), Justin Forsett (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ricky Williams (SPEC), Laurence Maroney (SPEC), LeSean McCoy (SPEC), Rashard Mendenhall (SPEC), Correll Buckhalter (SPEC), Jerious Norwood (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Dantrell Savage (SPEC), Glen Coffee (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Michael Sims-Walker (LT), Laurent Robinson (LT), Louis Murphy (LT), Michael Jenkins (LT), Mario Manningham (LT), Chansi Stuckey (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Julian Edelman (ST), Jacoby Jones (ST), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC), Pierre Garcon (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Antwaan Randle El (SPEC), Jason Avant (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Malcom Kelly (SPEC), Johnny Knox (SPEC), Austin Collie (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC), Brian Hartline (SPEC), Greg Camarillo (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Brett Celek (LT), Todd Heap (LT), Ben Watson (SPEC), Vernon Davis (SPEC), Randy McMichael (SPEC), Brandon Pettigrew (SPEC), Jermichael Finley (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC), Shawn Nelson (SPEC).

Kickers

Lawrence Tynes (LT), Rian Lindell (LT), John Carney (ST)

Defenses

Washington (LT), Atlanta (SPEC), Oakland (SPEC)

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 3 games on Thursday.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that our predictions for the Mayors’ Fantasy Football Challenge were cited in Andy Behrens’ Roto Arcade blog on Yahoo!  The victorious mayor will win $15K from Yahoo, to be donated to the charity of his/her choice.  Here are more details on the contest (including the list of participating mayors).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

In a sure sign that summer is coming to an end, the NFL season kicks off tonight in Pittsburgh.  Hard to believe that when the last NFL regular-season games were played, George W. Bush was still President, Michael Jackson was still alive, and no one was talking yet about “death panels” or attending health care town hall meetings with shotguns (ironic, no?).

Each week I’ll take a look at the upcoming NFL matchups from a fantasy perspective.  At the risk of stating the obvious, my recommendations are necessarily general in nature - if you’re in a league with 20 teams that starts 12 players per week, in all likelihood you’ll have to start some players you wouldn’t think about starting in a 10-12 team league that starts 9 players per week.  Also, in a forum like this it’s impossible to tailor recommendations to the myriad of scoring systems that exist.

Although a market for them definitely exists, I’m also highly critical of sites that claim to project players’ fantasy points on a weekly basis - that’s just nonsense.  Yes, fantasy owners are much more interested in point estimates than in ranges of outcomes, but if you don’t understand the limits of the information you’re using, you’re likely to misuse it.  There’s so much variation around a player’s “expected points” for a week that the expected results themselves are practically useless.  No one can tell you with anything remotely approaching a high degree of certainty whether Clinton Portis will score more fantasy points this week than Brandon Jacobs or vice versa.  To pretend otherwise is doing a disservice to your audience.

That being said, the one thing I can promise you is that I won’t be afraid to make recommendations that go against conventional wisdom when I feel they’re called for.  Many fantasy experts will advise you to “always start your studs” - I’m not one of them.  If you’re an Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees owner and they have a particularly tough matchup in a given week, you may actually be better off starting a Ray Rice or Jake Delhomme instead.  I don’t expect you to agree with or follow all of my recommendations, but at the very least, hopefully I’ll give you some food for thought.

Without further ado, here are my recommendations for Week 1 on the road to Super Bowl XLIV:

Tennessee at Pittsburgh - I don’t expect much scoring in this game from either side - the Defenses should dominate.  The Titans have a pair of talented RBs (Chris Johnson & LenDale White), but neither of them is a good play this week.  The only Titans I would start this week are TE Bo Scaife and the Defense.  I’m slightly more optimistic about the Steelers’ offensive players’ prospects, but only because I don’t have a good sense for the impact of Albert Haynesworth’s departure and Kyle Vanden Bosch’s return on the Titans’ defensive line.  Steelers worth starting include RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, WR Hines Ward, and the Defense.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Both offenses should have success moving the ball against the opposing Defense, but I suspect Indianapolis will have more success and win the game fairly easily.  Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee.  Colts worth starting include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri.

Detroit at New Orleans - As with the previous game I believe both offenses will move the ball successfully, but I expect the home team to win by a substantial amount.  Lions’ rookie QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson figure to develop into a top fantasy combo for years to come, and both are worth starting this weekend.  RB Kevin Smith, rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Bryant Johnson, and K Jason Hanson are also good starts.  If you have to submit your weekly fantasy lineups before the Titans-Steelers game, I would assume that New Orleans RB Pierre Thomas will not play, so leave him out of your lineups.  Saints’ QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston & Lance Moore, and K John “Methuselah” Carney should all be in lineups for this favorable matchup.

Philadelphia at Carolina - While both teams feature potentially explosive offenses, I expect Philadelphia’s Defense to outplay Carolina’s, resulting in an Eagles’ victory.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE Brent Celek, WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Defense.  The only Panther I’d start this week is WR Steve Smith.

Dallas at Tampa Bay - The Cowboys are finally playing in Tampa, but their rabid fans would have rather been in The Big Guava back in February for Super Bowl XLIII.  At least Punters Mat McBriar and Dirk Johnson won’t have to worry about kicking the ball into a scoreboard . . . Tampa’s defense features some talented players, but their offense will probably have a hard time staying on the field, leading the defense to wear down as the game progresses.  Cowboys worth starting include QB Tony Romo, RBs Marion Barber & Felix Jones, TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.  The only Buccaneer I’d consider starting is TE Kellen Winslow.

New York Jets at Houston Texans - Much has been made in the New York City press about the proverbial “change in attitude” that new Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan has brought to town.  Like his father, Buddy, Ryan is very down-to-earth and gives great interviews.  He’s also brought several players with him from his Ravens’ defense, most notably LB Bart Scott.  Still, with rookie QB Mark Sanchez and a WR corps that lost its top option (Laveranues Coles) to free agency without replacing him, I expect the Jets to struggle mightily on offense this year and be picking near the start of the draft next April.  The Texans, on the other hand, are a team genuinely on the upswing, and if QB Matt Schaub can finally stay healthy for a full season, I believe they’ll represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIV.  The only Jet I’d start this week is TE Dustin Keller, whom I believe will emerge as one of the NFL’s top pass-catching Tight Ends after a promising rookie season.  Texans worth starting include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniel, WR Andre Johnson, K Kris Brown, and the Defense.  Texans’ WR Kevin Walter is listed as Questionable - if you need to submit your lineup for the full slate of games before tonight’s game, I’d err on the side of caution and assume that he won’t play this weekend.

Kansas City at Baltimore - Many would look at this game and label it as a mismatch in Baltimore’s favor - I don’t believe that’s the case.  Baltimore’s defense lost several players, as well as Coordinator Rex Ryan, during the off-season, and their offense, which was mediocore last season, doesn’t appear to have improved much.  The big question mark for the Chiefs is at Quarterback - Matt Cassel is listed as Questionable.  Even though backup QB Tyler Thigpen filled in admirably last season, he’d be playing without standout TE Anthony Gonzalez this season.  Chiefs who are worth starting are RB Larry Johnson, WR Dwayne Bowe, and the Defense.  The only Ravens I’d start are TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and the Defense.

Denver at Cincinnati - There will be two defenses on the field for this game Sunday, but the final score may have you questioning whether either of them actually showed up.  Even though the Broncos will be sporting new starters at several key offensive positions, they figure to get off to a fast start against the Bengals’ defense.  Although QB Kyle Orton and rookie RB Knowshon Moreno are both listed as Questionable on the injury report, indications are that Orton will play, but Moreno won’t.  Broncos who should be started include Orton, RB Correll Buckhalter (assuming he starts in place of Moreno), WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  Bengals who should be started include QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles, and K Shayne Graham.  This doesn’t figure to be one of FOX’s featured games Sunday, but it could easily turn out to be one of the most entertaining.  Marshall and Ochocinco may actually garner attention for their football talent rather than their off-field dramatics.

Minnesota at Cleveland - For better or worse Vikings’ Head Coach Brad Childress has put his team’s fate in the hands of drama queen Brett Favre.  For better or worse Browns’ Head Coach Eric Mangini has put his fate in the hands of . . . well, we’re not sure yet.  Reports indicate that Mangini has chosen Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson as his starting Quarterback, but good luck getting Mangini to confirm that.  I don’t buy the notion that adding Favre makes the Vikings’ a Super Bowl contender, but they figure to get their season off to a good start in this matchup.  Vikings to start include Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deeper league (i.e.- more than 12 teams), RB Chester Taylor and rookie WR Percy Harvin may also be worth starting.  The only Brown worth starting this week is WR Braylon Edwards, who figures to catch his share of passes this season no matter which Browns’ QB is flinging them.  Hopefully, he’ll hold onto some of those passes this season too.

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons - Both these teams took a major step forward last season and finished 11-5, but I expect them to move in opposite directions in 2009.  I don’t expect Dolphins’ Quarterback Chad Pennington to stay healthy for a second consecutive season, which indicates that “Quarterback of the Future” Chad Henne will find himself the Quarterback of the Present at some point this season.  The Dolphins won’t revert to their 1-15 form of 2007, but I don’t expect them to make the playoffs again this season either.  The Falcons are a different story - they are my pick to win this year’s Super Bowl.  I believe they will emerge as the top offense in football this season, and the infusion of youth into their defense should also pay big dividends.  It may take the Falcons’ defense a good part of the season to come together, so Dolphins worth starting this week include Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, TE Anthony Fasano, WRs Tedd Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Falcons worth starting this week include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Anthony Gonzalez, WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants - Both teams feature suspect offenses and stout defenses, so this figures to be a low-scoring game, just as last year’s season-opener was.  Redskins worth starting include TE Chris Cooley and the Defense.  Giants worth starting include TE Kevin Boss and the Defense.  Not much to see or discuss here - let’s keep moving.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals - I’ve seen many football “experts” predicting the Steelers will repeat as Super Bowl champs, but I’ve yet to see anyone predict a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII.  That implies that most of these same experts are skeptical about the Cardinals’ ability to repeat last season’s success.  Count me among them.  Some will point to the departure of former Cardinals’ Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley, who’s know the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.  I think the more likely culprit will be Quarterback Kurt Warner’s inability to stay healthy for a second consecutive season.  I’m probably in the minority in believing that Matt Leinart can still be a successful NFL quarterback, but I don’t see it happening this season.  Much of the positive buzz surrounding the 49ers has to do with Head Coach Mike Singletary’s “winning ways”.  Unfortunately, being a star on the 1985 Chicago Bears doesn’t guarantee success as a coach in 2009.  49ers’ RB Frank Gore figures to have a good game Sunday and is worth starting, but he’s the only San Francisco player I like this weekend.  Cardinals worth starting include Warner, RB Tim Hightower (no, I’m not sold yet on Chris “Beanie” Wells in spite of his preseason performance), WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, & Steve Breaston, K Neil Rackers, and the Defense.  The Cardinals won’t repeat as NFC champs, but they’ll get their season off on the right foot (my apologies to you Joe Nedney fans out there).

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks - These two teams combined to win all of 6 games last season, so it’s reassuring to know that one of them will start the 2009 season 1-0 (wait, Donovan McNabb just reminded me of the possibility of overtime ties during the regular season!)  Their combined win total could double this season, but if it does, it figures to be the Seahawks contributing the (sea?) lions’ share of that improvement now that Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is back in the saddle again.  Call it symbolic, but Rams’ QB Marc Bulger is already banged up heading into the season (injured pinkie on his throwing hand).  The Rams figure to rely heavily on RB Steven Jackson (as long as he remains healthy), and he should be started this week.  Other Rams to start include TE Randy McMichael, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  Seahawks to start include Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and K Olindo Mare.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers - Ever since Brett Favre shocked the world last month by coming out of retirement to play for the Vikings, Packers’ fans have had November 1st circled on their calendars - that’s the Sunday that #4 returns to Lambeau Field to face the team that he led to a Super Bowl victory what seems like 30 years ago.  Favre obviously holds no animosity towards his former team, so let the lovefest begin.  However, first the Packers have to contend with another division rival, led by the equally loveable Quarterback Jay Cutler.  Cutler, Running Back Matt Forte, and Tight End Greg Olsen are undeniable talents, but will the Bears’ receiving corps be able to keep pace?  The Devin Hester Project enters Year 3 - results remain inconclusive.  Both defenses feature household names (at least if you live in the Urlacher or Hawk households), but I still expect a high-scoring contest.  Bears to start include Cutler, Forte, Olsen, Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (one of my favorite “sleepers” for this season), TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason “Taken!” Crosby.

Buffalo at New England - Are you ready for some football (squared)?  Barring any hurricanes or other “acts of God”, the first Monday night of the season is the only one to feature two games for your local watering hole’s viewing pleasure.  Regardless of whether they love or despise the Patriots, many football fans (Marshawn Lynch among them?) will tune in Monday night to see if The Brady Bundchen can return to their 18-1 heights of 2007.  In spite of the recent nonsense culminating in the firing of former Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert, I still expect the Bills to contend for a wild card playoff spot this season.  While both defenses figure to improve as the season progresses, I expect a shootout in this game (with the Bradys winning).  Bills to start include QB Trent Edwards, fill-in RB Fred Jackson, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell.  Patriots to start include Brady, RB Fred Taylor (isn’t he older than John Carney???), TE Chris Baker, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders - The second Monday night game features a team many people feel will be a Super Bowl contender (I’m not among them) versus a team many people feel will never be a Super Bowl contender again until Owner Al Davis “ceases to be involved” (I’m definitely among them).  Perhaps roughhousing Raiders’ Head Coach Tom Cable will invite LaGarrette Blount to give a pregame pep talk to get the Raiders fired up.  On second thought, that’s about as likely as Chargers’ Linebacker Shawne Merriman inviting Tila Tequila to give a pregame pep talk to get the Chargers fired up.  Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense.  The only Raider I’d start (and only if I had to) would be TE Zach Miller.  In deeper leagues you may also want to start Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden, but since he’ll be part of a Running Back By Committee situation and he’s going against the Chargers’ defense, hopefully you have better options.

That concludes my thoughts on this week’s games.  Making predictions about the opening weekend of the NFL season feels a bit like being blindfolded and swinging wildly at a dangling pinata, but that’s the nature of the beast.  Preseason football has next to no predictive value (does anybody really expect the Lions to win 75% of their games this season?), so those of us who engage in this weekly exercise have little more to go on at this point than our own analysis and hunches.  Hopefully, as the season unfolds, the weight will shift away from the hunches and towards the analysis.  Feel free to remind me if my recommendations don’t work out - you know where to find me!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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