The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Check out The Sherpa’s latest fantasy football strategy entry on The Huffington Post!  I also include lists of 3 players you’ll wish you hadn’t started and 3 players you’ll wish you had started for the upcoming week’s games.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Fantasy football drafts are challenging under the best of circumstances, but this year with a new CBA and the ensuing free agent frenzy imminent, things will be even crazier than usual.  Here is a partial list of players who stand a good chance of changing teams when the game of musical chairs begins:

Quarterbacks

1. Carson Palmer
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Kevin Kolb
4. Alex Smith
5. Vince Young
6. Matt Hasselbeck
7. Matt Leinart
8. Tarvaris Jackson

Running Backs

1. Ahmad Bradshaw
2. DeAngelo Williams
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Cedric Benson
5. Darren Sproles
6. Ricky Williams
7. Joseph Addai
8. Marion Barber
9. Jerome Harrison
10. LeRon McClain
11. Cadillac Williams
12. Earnest Graham
13. Clinton Portis
14. Laurence Maroney

Wide Receivers

1. Vincent Jackson
2. Santonio Holmes
3. Steve Smith (NYG)
4. Sidney Rice
5. Steve Smith (Car)
6. Malcolm Floyd
7. Mike Sims-Walker
8. Santana Moss
9. Lance Moore
10. Braylon Edwards
11. James Jones
12. Chad Ochocinco
13. Plaxico Burress
14. Randy Moss
15. Michael Jenkins
16. Devin Aromashodu

Tight Ends

1. Zach Miller
2. Kevin Boss
3. Dante Rosario

Kickers

1. David Akers
2. Matt Bryant
3. Ryan Longwell
4. Adam Vinatieri
5. Olindo Mare
6. John Carney

If you insist on drafting before the feeding frenzy commences, my suggestion would be to avoid as many of these players as possible; alternatively, if you just have to have some of them, make sure you draft them at least one round later than you would if you already knew which team they were playing for this season.

You stand forewarned.

The Sherpa

The fantasy value of team defenses is only slightly more predictable than that of Kickers.  That’s why it generally makes no sense to draft a defense until the final rounds or spend more than a dollar or two for one if you’re participating in an auction.

Still, given that most leagues require you have a defense in your starting lineup, what’s the best way to go about picking one?  The defensive events that produce the most fantasy points (i.e. - defensive and special teams touchdowns) are virtually impossible to predict.  Events such as sacks, fumble recoveries, and interceptions are nearly as difficult to project.  Thus, I find the most useful way to rank team defenses (with or without special teams included) is on the basis of total yards allowed (i.e. - rushing + passing), which is somewhat less random than total points allowed.  Again, this is at best a reasonable proxy - you’ll almost certainly change defenses at least once during the course of a season due to a bye week, and perhaps more often based on your defense’s matchup for a given week.

With all that said here is my ranking of team defenses (with or without special teams) heading into the 2010 season:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore
3. Green Bay
4. Pittsburgh
5. Minnesota
6. Dallas
7. Denver
8. Cincinnati
9. New England
10. Carolina
11. Washington
12. New York Giants
13. Houston
14. Philadelphia
15. San Diego
16. San Francisco
17. Chicago
18. Indianapolis
19. Arizona
20. Miami
21. Buffalo
22. Atlanta
23. Jacksonville
24. Seattle
25. Oakland
26. New Orleans
27. Tennessee
28. Tampa Bay
29. St. Louis
30. Cleveland
31. Kansas City
32. Detroit

One final point about defenses - many fantasy football owners like to draft a backup defense so that they’ll be covered during their primary defense’s bye week and/or have the option of playing matchups each week.  I strongly disagree with this strategy, primarily because of the random nature of a defense’s fantasy value.  It’s very difficult to predict this fantasy value over the course of a season and even more difficult to predict a defense’s fantasy value from week to week.  My recommendation - pick one you’re comfortable with in your draft our auction, ride with it until the team’s bye week, then replace it via free agency.  You may fret that you’re putting the second coming of the Bears’ 1986 defense on waivers, but that’s almost certainly not the case.  The spot you’ll save by not carrying a second defense can be put to much better use by stashing another running back or wide receiver with high upside.

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

For many of the people who started playing fantasy football more than a couple of years ago the mantra “always handcuff your star running back” is a sacred drafting strategy.  Handcuffing (i.e. - drafting your star running back’s backup), the theory goes, guarantees that you’ll lock in the production from a given NFL team’s running game, even if your star running back is injured for a significant number of games or lost for the season. 

This line of thinking is somewhat like the act of buying a put option on a stock you own in order to recoup most of the value of your investment in case the stock’s price does a nosedive.  I say “somewhat” because unlike a put option, there’s no guarantee you’ll recoup any of the value of your fantasy football investment through the use of handcuffs.  This could happen for one of several reasons: (1) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may suffer a significant injury prior to the star running back’s being injured, (2) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may lose his spot on the depth chart due to worse-than-expected performance on his part, better-than-expected performance by another running back, or a coach’s inexplicable decision (think Mike Shanahan’s Reign of Terror in Denver), etc, or (3) an injured star running back’s team may change its offensive philosophy after his loss (i.e. - passing more, running less).

Besides the uncertainties associated with the handcuffing strategy, it’s also a bad idea for two other reasons.   The first is the associated opportunity cost (i.e.- the value that’s lost by foregoing other possibilities) that comes with passing on the chance to draft an additional backup at other positions, namely quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end.  Quick - what do Chad Henne, Alex Smith, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, Sidney Rice, Mohammed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Brett Celek, and Vernon Davis all have in common?  That’s right - in 2009 they all went undrafted in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, and even in the minority of leagues in which they were drafted, they delivered significantly more fantasy value than you would expect from players taken in the late rounds of a draft. 

Quick - how many “star running backs” (I’ll define that term to mean running backs who were expected to gain more than 2/3 of their team’s rushing yards) missed “significant” time in 2009 (which I’ll define to mean more than 3 games) due to an injury (which does not include foreseeable ineffectiveness and/or ill-advised Tweeting) and were replaced by the expected handcuff?  That’s right - just two:  Jerome Harrison, who replaced Jamal Lewis in Cleveland, and Ricky Williams, who replaced Ronnie Brown in Miami.  By my count there were 22 “star running backs” available to be drafted in 2009, so that’s less than a 10% chance that your handcuff investment paid off last year (warning:  as they say in the investment biz, past performance is no guarantee of future returns).  Meanwhile, you gave up the potential fantasy production you would have received if you’d gotten lucky and speculated on one of the undrafted players listed above.

“Okay,” you say, “but there’s no guarantee that even an extremely knowledgable football fan like me would have had the foresight to pick one of the 14 players you listed above - tear down your straw man!”  Fair enough, which brings me to my final reason for opposing the handcuffing strategy: the trend among NFL teams towards the dreaded Running Back By Committee (RBBC).  Of course, many fantasy football team owners have come to dread the RBBC approach because the NFL teams that use this strategy shrink the supply of “star running backs”.  While that’s certainly the case, the positive side to RBBCs is that they increase the number of available running backs who are better alternatives than the handcuffs to star running backs. 

Case in point - in 2009 by my count 10 of the 32 teams headed into the season with what I would describe as an RBBC approach.  In 2010 that number is up to 13.  Yes, that’s three fewer star running backs available to be drafted, but that’s also three more running backs whose expected payoff is better than that of a handcuff.  Drafting someone who’s currently not the lead back in an RBBC situation still offers significant upside (the secondary back could move ahead of the lead back if the lead back is injured or the secondary back outperforms the lead back), while offering a higher expected return than a clear second-stringer who would be drafted as a handcuff.  The greater the number of fantasy teams or required starting running backs in your league, the more sense it makes to take secondary backs in an RBBC rather than a handcuff.

So put away those handcuffs today, and improve your chances of drafting a winning team in 2010! 

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

People generally have one of two mindsets when it comes to drafting Kickers for their fantasy football team: (1) take one of the “top Kickers” several rounds before the end of the draft, or (2) wait until the last round or two of your draft to take a Kicker and take “the best Kicker available” (or “any Kicker who’s available and still has a pulse”).  Count me in the second group.  Kickers undoubtedly differ in their innate skill levels, but the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team presents him with far outweighs the importance of the Kicker’s accuracy on 50+ yard field goals in determining his fantasy value.  And predicting the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team is likely to give him is, to put it kindly, nearly impossible.  The opportunity cost of taking a Kicker before the last round far outweighs the potential benefit (at least in this Sherpa’s mind).

So, if predicting Kickers’ fantasy values is a futile exercise, but you still need to pick one (or even two) for your team, what’s the best way to go about it?  I suggest that you rank Kickers in the same order that you should rank teams’ offenses, by total yards (rushing + passing).  There’s certainly a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of yards a team’s offense gains and the number of points it scores, and there’s also a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of points a team scores and the number of points its Kicker scores, but I firmly believe that trying to come up with a better system for ranking Kickers is a huge waste of time.

That said, here’s my ranking of Kickers for the upcoming season (which foreshadows my ranking of team offenses for the upcoming season):

1. Garrett Hartley (NO)
2. Mason Crosby (GB)
3. David Buehler (Dal)
4. Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
5. Kris Brown Neil Rackers (Hou)
6. Ryan Longwell (Min)
7. Adam Vinatieri (Ind)
8. Shayne Graham Billy Cundiff (Bal)
9. Nate Kaeding (SD)
10. David Akers (Phi)
11. Matt Bryant (Atl)
12. Lawrence Tynes (NYG)
13. John Kasay (Car)
14. Mike Nugent (Cin)
15. Nick Folk (NYJ)
16. Josh Scobee (Jac)
17. Jay Feely (Ari)
18. Jeff Reed (Pit)
19. Dan Carpenter (Mia)
20. Rob Bironas (Ten)
21. Robbie Gould (Chi)
22. Graham Gano (Was)
23. Jason Hanson (Det)
24. Ryan Succop (KC)
25. Joe Nedney (SF)
26. Matt Prater (Den)
27. Olindo Mare (Sea)
28. Sebastian Janikowski (Oak)
29. Rian Lindell (Buf)
30. Connor Barth (TB)
31. Phil Dawson (Cle)
32. Josh Brown (StL)

Agree or disagree?  Hit me with your best shot - fire away.

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that my “sleeper pick” for fantasy football Week 12 has been included in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entry in the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  This entry is a regular feature on Thursdays throughout the football season!

Have a great weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Once again Thanksgiving is upon us.  Two things come to mind when I think of this special holiday:  football and John Madden talking about turducken.  There used to be just two turkey day games to keep track of - one in Detroit, and one in Dallas.  However, believing that you can never have too much of a good thing, the NFL added a third game in 2006.  Many households aren’t able to watch the NFL Network, where the third game is telecast, but given the quality of the announcers in the past, that may actually be a good thing.  Here are my recommendations for Week 12:

Green Bay at Detroit - The Packers and the Lions have participated in many memorable Thanksgiving Day games, but with the current disparity in talent levels between the two teams, this game doesn’t figure to join that list.  Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford (Doubtful-shoulder, knee) won’t win many games this season, but he won the admiration of his teammates and many people who aren’t Lions fans with his gutsy performance at the end of last week’s victory over the Browns.  Unfortunately, the left shoulder injury he suffered on the next-to-last play of the game will probably keep him on the sidelines for this game.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (Probable-neck), TE Jermichael Finley, WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  The only Lions worth starting are TE Brandon Pettigrew and (if he’s able to play) WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-hand, knee).  RB Kevin Smith (Probable-hip) can be started in deeper leagues, but don’t start the Lions’ quarterback, regardless of whether it’s stafford or Daunte Culpepper.

Oakland at Dallas - Oakland’s internal squabbles this season have been well-documented, but not to be outdone, the Cowboys also head into this Thanksgiving showdown with a sideshow of their own.  You can rest assured that CBS will have a “Campo Cam” set up this week just in case there’s a rematch.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting this week, although RBs Michael Bush & Justin Fargas can be started if you’re in a deep league.  QB Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders’ wide receivers shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup.  Cowboys to start, in what figures to be a cakewalk for the home team, include QB Tony Romo (Probable-back), RB Marion Barber (Probable-thumb), TE Jason Witten (Questionable-foot), WRs Miles Austin & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.  Add RBs Tashard Choice & Felix Jones and WR Patrick Crayton to the list if you’re in a deep league.  If Witten is unable to play, add TE Martellus Bennett to the list.  Basically, anyone in a Cowboys uniform who plays a skill position should be in your lineup this week to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

New York Giants at Denver - Will the real Brandon Marshall please stand up?  During training camp he was suspended for insubordination.  Now he’s being hailed as a fiery team leader for getting in teammate Knowshon Moreno’s face last week during a blowout loss to the Chargers after the rookie fumbled a ball on the Chargers’ one-yard-line.  Hopefully, Broncos’ Head Coach Josh McDaniels has learned to keep his pregame thoughts about his opponents to himself.  Both teams have been in a tailspin lately, but the Giants were able to pull out of theirs, however briefly, last week.  Giants worth starting this week are TE Kevin Boss, WR Steve Smith, and the Defense.  QB Eli Manning (Probable-foot), RB Brandon Jacobs (Probable-knee), and WRs Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham can be started in deep leagues.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Out-ankle, foot), who’s been hurt all season, will finally miss a game.  RB Knowshon Moreno is the only Bronco who should definitely be started this week.  If you’re in a deep league, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal and the Broncos’ Defense can also be started.  The Broncos’ quarterback, whether it’s Kyle Orton (Probable-ankle) or Chris Simms, and RB Correll Buckhalter should not be in your lineup.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - Fortunately for the Steelers, it looks like they won’t have to rely on third-string QB Dennis Dixon for this week’s game with their division rivals.  If you haven’t heard Dixon’s name in awhile, here’s a quick refresher course.  Backup QB Charlie Batch broke his wrist and is unavailable, but starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (Probable-concussion) is apparently going to play and should be in fantasy lineups if he does.  Other Steelers to start are TE Heath Miller and WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes.  Add WR Mike Wallace to the list if you’re in a deep league.  Do not start Dixon on the off chance he starts.  Ditto for RBs Rashard Mendenhall & Willie Parker, who will find it tough going against the Ravens’ run defense.  The only Ravens I’d start are TE Todd Heap (Questionable-Chest) and WR Derrick Mason.  If you’re in a deep league, add QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Mark Clayton to the list.  If RB Willis McGahee is on your bench, keep him there.

Jacksonville at San Francisco - It’s hard to believe it’s already been a decade since WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce teamed up with QB Kurt Warner as part of The Greatest Show on Turf.  Remarkably, all three are still in the league, and although the two pass-catchers are now in supporting roles, they’ll be reunited when their teams face off this weekend.  Jaguars to start include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Questionable-knee), TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Mike Sims-Walker.  WRs Holt & Mike Thomas can also be started in deep leagues.  49ers to start include QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WR Michael Crabtree, & K Joe Nedney.  Keep WRs Bruce (Questionable-ankle) & Josh Morgan out of your lineup. 

Kansas City at San Diego - Newly-signed Chargers’ OT Jon Runyan is a man who apparently believes strongly in advance planning.  He’s already announced plans to retire at the end of this season so that he can run for Congress next year in New Jersey.  There’s been a lot of talk lately about the long-term impact of concussions on football players, particularly linemen.  Runyan suffered a concussion himself in 2007; hopefully the aftereffects of that injury won’t interfere in any way with his campaign for his next job.  The only Chief worth starting this week is RB Jamaal Charles, although QB Matt Cassel and WRs Chris Chambers & Mark Bradley can be started in deeper leagues.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (back out of the Sherpa doghouse) & Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense.  Add WR Malcom Floyd to the list if you’re in a deep league.

Indianapolis at Houston - If you think that NFL kickers have an easy job, consider the plight of Texans’ K Kris Brown.  Three weeks ago Kris missed a potential game-tying field goal at the end of the Texans’ loss to the Colts, and last week he missed another potential game-tying field goal at the end of the Texans’ loss to the Titans.  In a scheduling quirk the Texans play the Colts again for the second time in three games - can “Kris Miss” pull off the hat trick?  For his sake let’s hope not.  Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai (Probable-knee), TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and K Matt Stover.  Add RB Donald Brown and WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie to the list if you play in a deep league.  The only must-start Texans are QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, but RB Steve Slaton (Questionable-neck) and WR Kevin Walter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave WR Jacoby Jones (Probable-calf) on the bench.

Washington at Philadelphia - It’s obvious that not every NFL player can start every game, but Redskins’ RB Rock Cartwright may be on the verge of setting a record this weekend when he starts against the Eagles - it will be his first start in six seasons.  Coincidentally, his last start was also against the Eagles (Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb), so the Birds may need to blow the dust off some old game films (or videos).  How did Cartwright do in that game?  Glad you asked.  Just remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future success (or lack thereof).  The only Redskin worth starting this week is TE Fred Davis, although QB Jason Campbell, WR Santana Moss, and the Defense can be started in deep leagues.  The part of you that roots for the underdog wants to see Cartwright succeed, but don’t bet your fantasy team’s fortunes on it - leave him out of your lineup.  RB Ladell Betts (knee) is out for the season after his injury last week.  TE Chris Cooley (ankle) and RB Clinton Portis (concussion) will also miss this contest.  The Eagles to start are RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, and the Defense, but feel free to start QB Donovan McNabb and WRs DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, & Jason Avant in deeper leagues.  RB Brian Westbrook (Out-concussion) will miss at least another week.

Carolina at New York Jets - Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan, who earlier this season was badmouthing everyone from the Patriots to Channing Crowder, seemed a little hypocritical this week when he accused the Patriots of “disrespect” because they threw a deep pass late in their blowout victory over the Jets last week.  That shouldn’t be a problem this week: since the Panthers have no passing attack to speak of, in the unlikely event they’re blowing out the Jets late in the game, they’ll continue to do what they do best - run.  Panthers to start include RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Probable-Achilles’) and WR Steve Smith.  Those in deep leagues can also start the Panthers’ Defense.  Do not start QB Jake Delhomme (note to self:  copy previous sentence and paste in next week’s recommendations).  Jets to start include RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, and the Defense.  RB Shonn Greene can be started in deep leagues, but stay away from QB Mark Sanchez and WRs Braylon Edwards & Jerricho Cotchery.

Chicago at Minnesota - Here in Sherpaville we like to look for dissension among the football fan masses and use it as a leading indicator of developing stories.  Our crack research team has discovered that there’s no JakeCutlerSucks.com website yet, but there is a “Jake Cutler Sucks” discussion forum (where, ironically, no inappropriate comments are tolerated).  Bears’ QB Jake Cutler will definitely need to avoid his trademark red-zone interceptions this week if his team is to have a chance of beating the Minnesota FavresVikings.  The only Bears to start this week are Cutler (surprised?) and TE Garrett Olsen.  RB Matt Forte and WR Devin Hester can also be started in deep leagues, but leave WRs Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox on your bench.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson (Probable-ankle), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian (Probable-hamstring), Sidney Rice, & Percy Harvin (Probable-hip), K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  RB Chester Taylor can be started in deep leagues.

Seattle at St. Louis - From our Useless Statistics department comes this numerical nugget:  last week marked the first time all season that the 3-7 Seahawks didn’t win when QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for more yards (231) than the opposing quarterback (213).  Of course, the opposing quarterback last week was Brett Favre, he was out of the game before the third quarter ended, and the Vikings won 35-9.  So much for statistics.  Seahawks to start in this clash of NFC West bottom-dwellers include Hasselbeck, RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, K Olindo Mare, and the Defense.  Add WR Deion Branch to the list if you’re in a deep league and desperate for a Flex starter.  Avoid RB Julius Jones (Questionable-chest) even if he plays.  As is the case many weeks the only Ram who should be started is RB Stephen Jackson (Probable-back).  Add TE Randy McMichael to the list in deeper leagues.  Avoid fill-in QB Kyle Boller and WRs Donnie Avery & Brandon Gibson.  QB Marc Bulger (Out-groin/head/knee) will miss the first of what will most likely be several games.  Bulger and Boller may differ by two letters, but the Rams’ results are likely to be the same with either of them at the helm.

Arizona at Tennessee - Titans’ owner Bud Adams keeps apologizing for flipping Bills’ fans the bird, and his team keeps winning (although they had a little help last Monday night from Texans’ kicker Kris Brown).  It’s not obvious which streak will end first, but my bet would be on the latter.  Cardinals to start in this contest are QB Kurt Warner (Probable-concussion), RBs Tim Hightower & Chris Wells, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Bolden, K Neil Rackers, and the Defense.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Probable-knee) to the list in deeper leagues, and add QB Matt Leinart to the list if Warner’s concussion prevents him from playing.  The only Titan I’d start is RB Chris Johnson, but RB LenDale White can also be started in deep leagues.  Leave QB Vince Young and all Titan receivers out of your lineup.

Cleveland at Cincinnati - It’s been almost 20 years since former Bengals’ Head Coach Sam Wyche took this intense rivalry and kicked it up a notch.  This week it was Browns’ Head Coach Eric Mangini’s turn to get himself in trouble, although his wrath was aimed at the Detroit Lions rather than the Bengals.  In spite of last week’s offensive explosion against the Lions, there are no Browns worth starting this week.  That includes QB Brady Quinn, RB Jamal Lewis, and WRs Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi, & Chansi Stuckey (Probable-calf).  Bengals to start include QB Carson Palmer, RB Bernard Scott, WR Chad Ochocinco, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  Add WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable-chest) & Andre Caldwell to the list in deep leagues.  Leave RBs Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) & Larry Johnson (Questionable-judgment) out of your lineup.

Miami at Buffalo - For all the haters out there, admit it - Bills’ WR Terrell Owens still has something left in the tank.  Discussion involving Buffalo football have recently focused on who will be the next head coach to get the pleasure of coaching T.O.  Bruce Cowher has publicly taken himself out of the running, but Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, and Eric ManginiMarty Schottenheimer are all names that have been bandied about.  In the meantime the Bills will focus on containing the Dolphins’ explosive running game.  RB Ricky Williams (Probable-chest) is Miami’s only must-start this week, but add unproven backup RB Lex Hilliard to the list in deep leagues.  Don’t bother this week with QB Chad Henne or any of his receivers.  Owens and fellow WR Lee Evans are the only Bills who should be started this week, but add RBs Marshawn Lynch (Probable-shoulder) and Fred Jackson to the list in deep leagues.  It’s fun to root for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but you still shouldn’t have him in your lineup.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - I’m not suggesting that Buccaneers’ rookie Head Coach Raheem Morris is a control freak, but already this season he’s fired his Offensive Coordinator, changed starting quarterbacks twice, and now taken over as Defensive Coordinator.  If I were Bucs’ owner Malcolm Glazer, I’d be locking my office door when I left for the night.  The Buccaneers to start this week are RB Cadillac Williams and TE Kellen Winslow.  Add QB Josh Freeman and WRs Maurice Stovall & Sammie Stroughter to the list in deeper leagues.  I’d advise against starting WR Antonio Bryant.  Falcons to start include QB Matt Ryan, RB Jason Snelling, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White (Probable-knee), and K Jason Elam.  Add WR Michael Jenkins and the Defense to the list in deeper leagues.  Leave RBs Michael Turner (Questionable-ankle) & Jerious Norwood (Questionable-hip) on your bench.

New England at New Orleans - Fantasy owners who spent an early draft pick this year on Saints’ RB Pierre Thomas are hoping that going forward PT will get more PT, and Mike Bell will get less.  Of course, as fantasy “experts” are so fond of saying, Saints’ Head Coach Sean Payton doesn’t give a —- about your fantasy team.  Neither does Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick, who may activate RB Sammy Morris (Questionable-knee) this week just to make his backfield more aggravatinginteresting for those who have RB Laurence Maroney on their fantasy squads.  Patriots to start in this Monday night showdown include QB Tom Brady, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, & K Stephen Gostkowski.  Add TE Ben Watson to the list in a deep league.  If Morris is able to play, add him to the list.  If not, add Maroney to the list.  Saints to start include QB Drew Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Mike Bell, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney.  Add WRs Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson to the list in deep leagues, and add RB Reggie Bush (Questionable-knee) to the list if he plays.  Leave WR Lance Moore (ankle) out of your lineup even if he returns this week.

Good luck to your teams this weekend, and Happy Thanksgiving! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

Last week we had several key running backs who were lost to injury.  This week it was the quarterbacks’ turn to take a beating, although running backs had another rough week too.  Quality may trump quantity in most aspects of life, but when it comes to fantasy football, you can never have enough running backs.  Here’s a list of the players who were hurt during Week 11 action or were surprising scratches:

QB

• Marc Bulger (inj)
• Ben Roethlisberger (inj?)
• Kurt Warner (inj?)
• Tony Romo (inj?)
• Matthew Stafford (inj?)

RB  

• Ladell Betts (inj) 
• Reggie Bush (inj?) 
• Marshawn Lynch (inj?)
• Brandon Jacobs (inj?)
• Kolby Smith (inj?)

WR 

• Calvin Johnson (inj?)
• Jacoby Jones (inj?)

TE - none

K - none 

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season. 

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith (LT), Chad Henne (LT), Kyle Boller (ST), Vince Young (SPEC), Jason Campbell (SPEC), Josh Freeman (SPEC), Brady Quinn (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Matt Leinart (SPEC), and Dennis Dixon (SPEC).

Running Backs

Justin Fargas (LT), Michael Bush (LT), Rock Cartwright (ST), Bernard Scott (SPEC), Chester Taylor (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Derrick Ward (SPEC), Chris Jennings (SPEC), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Rashad Jennings (SPEC), Kahlil Bell (SPEC), and Lex Hilliard (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Donnie Avery (LT), Malcom Floyd (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Chaz Schilens (LT), Anthony Gonzalez (inj, SPEC), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Andre Caldwell (SPEC), Michael Clayton (SPEC), Mohamed Massaquoi (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Brian Hartline (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC), James Jones (SPEC), Chris Chambers (SPEC), Lance Long (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Bryant Johnson (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Early Doucet (SPEC), Dwayne Jarrett (SPEC), Maurice Stovall (SPEC), Jason Hill (SPEC), Ted Ginn (SPEC), and Brandon Gibson (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew (LT), Fred Davis (ST), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC), and Randy McMichael (SPEC).

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Josh Scobee (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Dan Carpenter (LT), Kris Brown (LT), and Matt Stover (ST).

Defenses

Atlanta (ST), Carolina (ST), and Seattle (ST).

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 12 games by Thursday morning.  If your league requires you to set your lineup before the first game of the week, this week’s Thanksgiving tripleheader features Green Bay at Detroit, Oakland at Dallas, and the New York Giants at Denver.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that my “sleeper pick” for fantasy football Week 11 has been included in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entry in the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  This entry is a regular feature on Thursdays throughout the football season!

Have a great weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Just three or four weeks left in the regular season for most fantasy football leagues.  Depending on your current position in the standings, it’s time to get your roster set for the playoffs, make that final push for the playoffs, or play the role of spoiler.  This week’s Thursday night contest pits Miami and Carolina.  Here are my recommendations for Week 11:

Miami at Carolina - With RB Ronnie Brown now out for the season, it’s RB Ricky Williams’ time to shine.  Let’s just hope that with all the pressure that comes with being the featured running back, Ricky will be able to stay away from the temptations that have sidetracked him in the past.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Williams is the only Dolphin worth starting this week - leave QB Chad Henne and WRs Greg Camarillo & Davone Bess on your bench.  Panthers to start include RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WR Steve Smith, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Jake Delhomme.

Seattle at Minnesota - This game features the latest installment in the Steve Hutchinson vs. Nate Burleson contest (if you ignore the fact that the two players facing their former teams won’t be on the field at the same time).  Although Burleson has shown some signs of life this season, the Vikings definitely got the better of the team-switching that took place after the 2005 season.  Seahawks to start include QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson, and WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Burleson.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WR Deion Branch.  RB Julius Jones (Out-ribs) will miss the game.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, & Percy Harvin, and K Ryan Longwell.

Indianapolis at Baltimore - Indy managed to remain undefeated last week by pulling off an escape that David Blaine and Criss Angel couldn’t match.  Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick deserves a huge assist, of course, but even before his late-game brain freeze, the Colts had closed a 31-14 gap to a 34-28 deficit in less than one quarter.  This will be the weekend that the Colts’ luck finally runs out.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, and WR Reggie Wayne should all be started for the Colts.  WRs Austin Collie & Pierre Garcon can also be started in deeper leagues.  Keep RB Donald Brown and WR Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable-knee) out of your lineup.  Ravens to start include QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steven Hauschka.  WR Mark Clayton can also be started by those in deeper leagues.  I’d avoid RB Willis McGahee.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - A few weeks ago we put the spotlight on the website FireDickJauron.com.  What happens to such a website when the targeted coach actually does get fired?  Glad you asked.  Somewhere Turk Schonert is laughing.  New Bills’ Head Coach Perry Fewell - consider yourself forewarned.  Bills to start this weekend include RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Fred Jackson.  Jaguars to start include RB Maurice “Kneel-Down” Jones-Drew (the Jets should have picked him up and forcibly carried him into the end zone) and WR Mike Sims-Walker.  QB David Garrard, and WRs Mike Lewis & Torry Holt can be started in deep leagues. 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Even though he’s one of the top tight ends in football, Kellen Winslow has made just as many headlines for comparing himself to a soldier or criticizing the Cleveland Browns as he has for his ability on the field.  Still, in spite of playing for a team almost as hapless as the Browns, Winslow is quietly putting together an outstanding season.  The Bucs have been much more competitive in their last two games, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine them handing the Saints their first loss of the season.  Saints to start include QB Drew Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, K John Carney, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Devery Henderson & Robert Meachem.  Leave RB Mike Bell on the bench.  The only Bucs worth starting are RB Cadillac Williams and Winslow (Questionable-knee).  QB Josh Freeman and WRs Maurice Stovall & Sammie Stroughter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Derrick Ward and WR Antonio Bryant (Questionable-knee) on the bench.

Atlanta at New York Giants - It’s been a slow week over at Big Blue Interactive, a blog for Giants’ fans.  Bloggers have been reduced to dissecting the Giants’ post-bye-week record in the Tom Coughlin era.  Fortunately for these hard-core fans, the Giants are back on the field this week to face a team with an identical record and identical post-season ambitions.  The Falcons will have a tough time overcoming the loss of star RB Michael Turner (Doubtful-ankle) - even though RB Jason Snelling filled in admirably last week against the Panthers, look for the Giants to finally post their sixth win.  Falcons to start include Snelling, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Roddy White.  Leave QB Matt Ryan on the bench, and don’t expect RB Jerious Norwood (Questionable-hip) to contribute much this week if he’s able to return.  Giants to start include QB Eli Manning, RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw, TE Kevin Boss, WR Steven Smith, and K Lawrence Tynes.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham and the Defense.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City - It’s been a strange week for Chiefs’ fans (assuming that such a species still exists).  First, recently-released RB Larry Johnson signed on with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Then, star WR Dwayne Bowe was suspended for four games, allegedly because he took a diuretic in an effort to appease new Head Coach Todd Haley by losing weight.  Now the Steelers come to town fresh off a loss to the division-leading Bengals.  Put it all together and the Chiefs should be in store for another long afternoon culminating in another loss.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, & Mike Wallace, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  There are absolutely no Chiefs I’d want to start in this game - that list includes QB Matt Cassel, RBs Jamaal Charles & Koby Smith, TE Sean Ryan, and WRs Chris Chambers, Mark Bradley, Lance Long, & Bobby Wade.  Hopefully, you are not a Chiefs fan who stacked their roster with players from the hometown team - if so, chances are you’re already looking ahead to next season for both your fantasy team and your real team.

San Francisco at Green Bay - With his team 5-4 even after last Sunday’s beat-down of the Cowboys, you’d think Packers’ Head Coach Mike McCarthy would be focused solely on making the playoffs.  However, McCarthy is being accused of playing a role in the recent firing of a long-time Packers’ maintenance worker, who apparently does not have much of a future as a motivational speaker.  The Packers should have all the motivation they need for this week’s contest with the 49ers:  with the Vikings in control of the division and showing no signs of faltering, Green Bay is going to have to fight its way into the playoffs as a wild card.  Coming off a Jay Cutler-aided win against the Bears, the 49ers (4-5) have even less margin for error if they hope to be involved in the playoffs.  The only 49ers to start against a Packers’ defense that’s better than you think are RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis.  Leave QB Alex Smith and WRs Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, & Isaac Bruce (Probable-ankle) on the bench.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WR James Jones.  Leave the Packers tight end on the bench, regardless of whether it turns out to be Jermichael Finley (Probable-knee), Donald Lee, or Spencer Havner.

Cleveland at Detroit - In a play that’s indicative of how the entire season’s gone for the Browns, WR Josh Cribbs (Questionable-neck) was injured on the final play of the Browns’ 16-0 Monday night loss to the Ravens.  The real question isn’t whether Ravens’ DE Dwan Edwards delivered a cheap shot; it’s what the Browns were thinking by having arguably their best offensive weapon on the field for a meaningless kick return on the final play of a game they had absolutely no chance of winning.  It’s easy to second guess, but one could argue that was a much worse decision than Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick’s choice to go for it on 4th-and-two from his 28 yard line.  Meanwhile, the Lions, who, before Week 8’s game against the Rams, hadn’t been favored since Week 1 of the 2008 season, are now favored for the second time in four weeks.  The only Brown who’s a must-start this week is RB Jamal Lewis (Questionable-ankle), who’s probably busy counting the days to retirement.  QB Brady Quin, and WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Mike Furrey can be started in deeper leagues.  Lions to start include QB Matt Stafford, RB Kevin Smith, TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Calvin Johnson, K Jason Hanson, and the Defense.  WR Bryant Johnson can also be started in deeper leagues.

Washington at Dallas - It’s not every day that an NFL player is called “classless” by another NFL player, especially one who’s been arrested for illegal possession of a firearm and aggravated assault against a police officer.  Yet that’s exactly what happened when Redskin RB Rock Cartwright drew the ire of former Cowboy DT Tank Johnson by dancing on the star at midfield to celebrate the Redskins’ upset victory following their final visit to Texas Stadium.  Chances are the Cowboys, playing the first of their traditional two home games during Thanksgiving week, will be the ones celebrating following this game.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, RB Ladell Betts (Probable-ankle), TE Fred Davis, and WR Santana Moss.  RB Clinton Portis (Questionable-concussion) is likely to miss his second consecutive game, and TE Chris Cooley (Out-ankle) will definitely miss his third consecutive game.  Cowboys to start include RBs Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, & Felix Jones and TE Jason Witten.  Leave QB Tony Romo and WRs Roy Williams & Miles Austion on the bench.

Arizona at St. Louis - Cardinals QB Kurt Warner can be forgiven if he has a sense of deja vu.  He’s already beaten one of his former teams this season (the Giants); this week he gets his first of two shots against the Rams, the team he led to victory in Super Bowl XXXIV (although some Titans fans apparently still haven’t accepted that fact).  Warner and the Cardinals figure to have their way with the Rams, who put up a surprisingly good fight last week against the undefeated Saints.  Cardinals to start include Warner, RBs Tim Hightower & Chris Wells, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.  Rams to start include QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  Those in deeper leagues can also take a flier on WRs Brandon Gibson & Danny Amendola.

San Diego at Denver - Before this season began many fantasy football analysts, including yours truly, figured that Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson would bounce back strong this season from the toe injury that plagued him last season.  That hasn’t turned out to be the case.  Maybe he is still bothered by his injury.  Maybe it was just the ravages of time.  Or perhaps he never recovered from his workouts with Kimbo Slice.  Whatever the cause, LT managed to turn back the clock for at least one day in last week’s victory over the Eagles.  Was that performance a fluke or a sign of more good things to come?  This week’s contest against the free-falling Denver Broncos should be a good test.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RBs Tomlinson & Darren Sproles, and TE Antonio Gates.  Leave WRs Vincent Jackson & Malcom Floyd on the bench as they go against a tough Broncos secondary.  The only Bronco worth starting is RB Knowshon Moreno, although RB Correll Buckhalter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave QB Kyle Orton (Questionable-ankle) and WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal on the bench.

Cincinnati at Oakland - It’s hard to imagine where the Bengals got their newfound strength from.  WR Chad Ochocinco’s rededication to football?  Head Coach Marvin Lewis’ leadership?  DT Domata Peko’s Samson-like hair?  Whatever the source, the Bengals figure to have more than enough muscle to push aside the Raiders this weekend and retain their perch at the top of the AFC North.  Bengals to start this weekend include QB Carson Palmer, RB Bernard Scott, WRs Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, & Andre Caldwell, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deep league and a speculative mood, take a chance and start newly-acquired RB Larry Johnson.  Leave RB Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) on the bench even if he’s able to play.  The only Raider I’d start is TE Zach Miller.  Leave RBs Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, & Darren McFadden and WR Chaz Schilens on the bench.  The quarterback switch from JaMarcus Russell to Bruce Gradkowski won’t make much of a difference - Gradkowski, like Russell, also struggles mightily in the accuracy department, and like Russell, he doesn’t belong in your lineup (or on your roster).

New York Jets at New England - Following his decision to go for the first down on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard-line in last week’s game against the Colts, Bill Belichick has been second-guessed to death by every talking head and person with access to a keyboard.  In spite of that, he’s still had a better week than Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino.  The Jets beat the Patriots 16-9 in Week 2, but look for the Patriots to win this rematch handily.  Jets to start include RBs Thomas Jones & Shonn Greene and TE Dustin Keller.  Leave QB Mark Sanchez and WRs Braylon Edwards & Jerricho Cotchery on the bench.  Patriots to start include QB Tom Brady (Probable-coach with a brain-crampshoulder), RB Laurence Maroney, TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  Fred Taylor (Questionable-ankle) and Sammy Morris (Questionable-knee) will miss another week.

Philadelphia at Chicago - Following his five-interception performance last week against the 49ers, Bears QB Jay Cutler was criticized by a multitude of people, including Hall of Fame quarterback Fran Tarkenton, who seems to be making a living these days by speaking ill of current NFL players.  The Bears, losers of two straight, host the Eagles, another team that’s lost two in a row and appears headed in the wrong direction.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, and K David Akers.  WR Jeremy Maclin and the Eagles’ Defense can also be started in deeper leagues.  RB Brian Westbrook (Out-concussion) has more important things to deal with right now than getting back on the football field.  Bears to start include Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Greg Olsen, and WR Devin Hester.  Those in deeper leagues can also start WRs Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox.

Tennessee at Houston - Titans owner Bud Adams just can’t seem to stay out of the news.  Earlier this season he publicly requested that Head Coach Jeff Fisher replace struggling QB Kerry Collins with QB Vince Young.  Apparently emboldened by Young’s 3-0 record as a starter, Adams decided to push the envelope even further, flipping off Bills’ fans at the end of the Titans’ victory.  In the era of Hammurabi’s Code, Adams would have had both his middle fingers cut off; in the era of Roger Goodell, Adams was fined $250K (or $125K per finger), which probably would have paid for the surgical reattachment of his middle fingers many times over.  We’ll see if the Titans will be motivated this week to win one for the Flipper.  The only Titans to start this week are QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson, but those in deeper leagues can also start TE Bo Scaife and WRs Kenny Britt & Nate Washington.  The injury status of WR Justin Gage (back) is unknown, but he should be left out of lineups even if he’s able to play.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.  If WR Jacoby Jones (Questionable-calf) is able to play, he’s also worth starting in deeper leagues, but RB Ryan Moats should be left on the bench in all leagues.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook