The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Thankfully, not too many serious injuries from Week 5, but we still have another bye week to deal with.  Teams with a Week 6 bye are Dallas, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and San Francisco.  Players with injuries or a bye week include

QB

• Matthew Stafford (inj?)
• Kyle Boller (inj)
• Tony Romo (bye)
• Peyton Manning (bye)

RB 

• Darren McFadden (inj) 
• Correll Buckhalter (inj) 
• Felix Jones (bye, inj)
• Glen Coffee (bye, inj)

WR 

• Calvin Johnson (inj?) 
• Johnny Knox (inj?)
• Devin Hester (inj?) 
• Roy Williams (bye, inj) 
• Reggie Wayne (bye)
• Pierre Garcon (bye)
• Ted Ginn (bye)

TE

• Kevin Boss (inj?)
• Jason Witten (bye)
• Dallas Clark (bye)
• Vernon Davis (bye)

K 

• Nick Folk (bye)
• Adam Vinatieri (bye, inj)

 DEF

• Dallas
• Indianapolis
• Miami
• San Francisco

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season.  An asterisk (*) indicates a player whose team has a bye this week.

Quarterbacks

Marc Bulger (LT), Shaun Hill (LT *), Jason Campbell (LT), Josh Johnson (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC *), Derek Anderson (SPEC), Kevin Kolb (SPEC), Vince Young (SPEC), Seneca Wallace (SPEC), Josh Freeman (SPEC), and Matt Leinart (SPEC).

Running Backs

Jamal Lewis (LT), Sammy Morris (SPEC), Chris Wells (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC), Jerious Norwood (SPEC), Chester Taylor (SPEC), Mike Bell (SPEC), Laurence Maroney (SPEC), Justin Fargas (SPEC), Justin Forsett (SPEC), Rashad Jennings (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Ryan Moats (SPEC), Shonn Greene (SPEC), Bernard Scott (SPEC), Aaron Brown (SPEC), Marcus Mason (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Miles Austin (LT *), Donnie Avery (LT), Sidney Rice (LT), Mark Clayton (LT), Jeremy Maclin (SPEC), Austin Collie (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Hakeem Nicks (SPEC), Antoine Caldwell (SPEC), Michael Clayton (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Muhsin Muhammad (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Mike Wallace (SPEC), Mohamed Massaquoi (SPEC), Deion Branch (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC *), Greg Camarillo (SPEC *), Josh Morgan (SPEC *), Louis Murphy (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Julian Edelman (SPEC), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC), Kelley Washington (SPEC), Bryant Johnson (SPEC), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Keenan Burton (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Zack Miller (SPEC), Sean Ryan (SPEC), Brandon Pettigrew (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC), Ben Watson (SPEC), Randy McMichael (SPEC), Chris Baker (SPEC).

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Robbie Gould (ST), Jason Hanson (ST), John Carney (ST).

Defenses

Carolina (ST), Jacksonville (ST), St. Louis (ST).

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 6 games on Thursday.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Well, there was no shortage of drama during the Week 1 games - my condolences to those of you who root for the Raiders, Bills, and especially the Bengals. 

Imagine the following post-game interview in Cincinnati:

Interviewer:  “Brandon, what were you thinking as you grabbed that deflection and took off towards the end zone?”

Brandon Stokley:  “Honestly, I just wanted to get to the end zone before somebody caught me.  When I got there and realized I was going to score, I decided to run out some clock . . .”

Kanye West:  “Excuse me, Brandon, I’ll let you finish, but I just wanted to say that Franco Harris had the best TD run after a deflected pass!!!”

Stokley:  “What the f—, you little jackass - you weren’t even born until 5 years after that play happened!!!”

Interviewer:  “Back to you, Gus!”

My feeble attempt at humor aside, here are my recommendations for Week 2:

Carolina at Atlanta - I suspect there were a lot of injuries suffered Sunday by all the people jumping off the Panthers’ bandwagon.  The Eagles are obviously a talented team (especially when Donovan McNabb isn’t nursing injured ribs), but Carolina fans had flashbacks to QB Jake Delhomme’s abysmal showing against the Cardinals in last year’s playoffs (also a home game) and took a second straight poor performance as evidence that he no longer possesses the skill to quarterback even a peewee team.  While Delhomme will never rank among the game’s elite signal-callers, he has too many offensive weapons at his disposal to remain down for long.  The Falcons’ defense was impressive Sunday, but keep in mind that effort came against an overrated Dolphins offense.  Start Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith, and K John Kasay with confidence.  For those of you in deeper leagues RB Jonathan Stewart is a worthy Flex start.  For the Falcons start QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam.  In deeper leagues RB Jerious Norwood and WR Michael Jenkins should also be in starting lineups.  This should be a fairly high-scoring game - it wouldn’t surprise me if the loser scored 24-27 points.

Arizona at Jacksonville - To keep it short and sweet:  though neither team gave up more than 20 points last weekend, I’m not impressed by either defense; neither should be started this week.  Start Arizona QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower (don’t worry, Larry Fitzgerald owners - Hightower will not lead the team in receiving yards this season), and K Neil Rackers.  If you have to set your lineups well before kickoff on Sunday, I’d look for healthier alternatives than WRs Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston, both of whom are listed as questionable.  In a deep league Cardinal RB Beanie Wells and WR Jerheme Urban may also be used as a starters (assuming that both Boldin & Breaston are unable to play).  Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee. 

St. Louis at Washington - This appears to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend, even bigger than the Vikings-Lions contest.  Don’t make the mistake of remembering last season’s Rams’ upset victory against the (team-soon-to-be-formerly-known-as-the) Redskins - it’s irrelevant at this point.  Start Rams’ TE Randy McMichael if you must, but only if you must.  Redskins to start include maligned QB Jason Campbell (maybe he’ll wind up in Carolina next year?), RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  In spite of his stellar performance last week, I’m not counting on WR Antwaan Randle El to continue his success - keep him out of your starting lineup (in the unlikely event he’s even on your roster).

New Orleans at Philadelphia - This is one of the more intriguing games this weekend.  Will New Orleans’ high-powered offense be able to move the ball vs. the Eagles’ stout defense?  Will Donovan McNabb, broken(?) rib and all, play for the Eagles, and if so, how effectively?  If not, will backup Kevin Kolb be able to fill in adequately?  For the Saints I believe QB Drew Brees will have a good, but not great, game (think 250-275 yards passing and 2 TDs), so he’s still worth starting, as are RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston & Lance Moore, and K John Carney.  For the Eagles, I don’t care who starts at QB; they shouldn’t be in your lineup this weekend.  Go instead with RB Brian Westbrook, TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense (on the assumption they make several big plays).

New England at New York Jets - The Jets have been talking a lot of smack this week, probably more for their own benefit than anyone else’s.  New England will be unfazed.  Start QB Tom Brady, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  For the Jets start TE Dustin Keller and hope for the best.

Oakland at Kansas City - Here’s a game that has the potential to be high-scoring in spite of two below-average offenses.  For Oakland start RB Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and K Sebastien Janikowski.  If you’re in a deep league RB Michael Bush is also worth starting in a Flex spot.  For the Chiefs start RB Larry Johnson, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Ryan Succup.  If you’re in a deep league, consider RB Jamaal Charles for your Flex spot.

Houston at Tennessee - While at least one Texan spent last week’s dismal opener against the Jets trying to send a message to GM Rick Smith, it appeared that the whole team missed the message that the season had officially started.  Yes, the Jets’ defense backed up new Head Coach Rex Ryan’s talk with an impressive performance, but don’t believe those who are hyping this as top defense this season.  Up next - an even bigger challenge in the form of the Titans’ defense, which held the Steelers’ running game in check opening night.  If someone in your league panicked and cut Texans’ QB Matt Schaub, I’d pick him up, but I wouldn’t start him this week.  The only Texan who should definitely be in your lineup this week is TE Owen Daniels.  Titans who should be started this week include RBs Chris Johnson & LenDale White, WR Justin Gage, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deeper league, WRs Nate Washington & Kenny Britt are also worth starting.

Cincinnati at Green Bay - Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco has already announced his intention to perform a “Lambeau Leap” in the unlikely event he scores a touchdown Sunday.  If that indeed happens, here’s hoping there’s an Emily Montforto in that section to throw him back.  For the Bengals start QB Carson Palmer and WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles.  For the Packers start QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues may also want to start TE Donald Lee.

Minnesota at Detroit- Last week the Lions found themselves behind the Drew Brees and the Saints 14-0 in less time than it took South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson to interrupt Pres. Obama’s recent speech.  To their credit rookie QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, and the rest of the Lions’ offense showed some life.  While I agree with Stafford’s being picked #1 overall in last April’s draft, you can’t help but wonder if the team would have been better off taking a defensive player with their second first-round pick rather than TE Brandon Pettigrew.  Time will tell.  This game looks to be a survivor pool participant’s delight; Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Percy Harvin, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues may also want to start RB Chester Taylor and WR Sidney Rice.  Stafford and Johnson are the only Lions who should definitely be started, although those in deeper leagues may also want to consider WR Bryant Johnson.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo - No truth to the rumor that the Bills are considering Florida A&M’s LeRoy Vann with their first pick in the 2010 draft.  If Vann does end up on the Bills, hopefully he buys a place without grass.  After a heart-breaking loss to the Patriots Monday night the Bills have their home opener against a team that didn’t show much on either side of the ball against the Cowboys.  For the Buccaneers start RB Cadillac Williams, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Michael Clayton.  For the Bills start QB Trent Edwards, RB Fred Jackson, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, K Rian Lindell, and the Defense.

Seattle at San Francisco - Both teams are coming off impressive Week 1 victories, so the early-season lead in the NFC West is at stake here.  While both defenses were impressive last week, I’d expect a final score in the neighborhood of 24-21 (with the Seahawks winning).  Seahawks to start include QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh (if he’s healthy enough to play) & Nate Burleson, and K Olindo Mare.  49ers to start include QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, WR Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney.  Given his inconsistency throughout his career, I’m not buying in on TE Vernon Davis yet.

Cleveland at Denver - In spite of Denver’s improbable last-minute victory over the Bengals last weekend, there were many more warning signs than encouraging ones.  The running game never got on track, and Kyle Orton didn’t appear to be on the same page with star wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  In spite of shutting the Bengals out until the final minute I’m not sold yet on the Broncos’ defense either.  Against the Vikings the Browns looked like they picked up where last season left off, which is to say it looks to be another long season resulting in another high draft pick next April.  Browns to start include WR Braylon Edwards and K Phil Dawson.  If you’re in a deeper league, QB Brady Quinn, RB Jamal Lewis, and WR Mike Furrey are also worth starting.  For the Broncos start WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal and K Matt Prater.  If you’re in a deeper league, Orton and RB Knowshon Moreno are also worth starting (if Moreno’s healthy, I believe he’ll get more carries than RB Correll Buckhalter).

Baltimore at San Diego - This game is one of the more difficult contests to analyze for Week 2.  When you think of Baltimore, you think of their defense.  Yet, in the topsy-turvy world of the NFL, it was actually QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice and the rest of the Ravens’ offense that stole the show in their victory against the Chiefs, while the Ravens’ defense was good, but not great.  When you think of San Diego, you think of their offense, but after LaDainian Tomlinson’s ankle injury, it is the Chargers’ defense that will need to step up if San Diego wants to be competitive in this contest.  Ravens to start include Flacco, Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steve Hauschka.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RB Darren Sproles (only because of his ability to get involved in the passing game), TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.  I would leave RB LaDainian Tomlinson and his bad ankle on the bench this week; even if he is able to play, it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as he normally is against the Ravens’ run defense.

Pittsburgh at Chicago - These two teams both have major questions to be answered after their Week 1 performances.  Will the Steelers be able to generate a running game this season? (i.e. - does RB Willie Parker have anything left?  is their offensive line able to clear holes for the running backs?)  Will QB Ben Roethlisberger be able to stay in one piece if he’s forced to throw 40 times a game?  Will the Steelers’ defense be able to survive the loss of Troy Polamalu?  Will the Bears’ defense be able to survive Brian Urlacher’s season-ending wrist injury?  Will the Bears’ offense be able to survive QB Jay Cutler’s interceptions?  Steelers to start this weekend include Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  The only Bears I’d start this weekend would be RB Matt Forte & TE Greg Olsen.

New York Giants at Dallas - The moment we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived - the opening of Jerry Jones’ new tribute to himself state-of-the-art football stadium, featuring a low-hanging scoreboard that His Majesty stubbornly refuses to raise.  Unfortunately, the scoreboard controversy threatens to divert attention from the team, which should be right in the fray with the Eagles and Giants for the NFC East title.  The Buccaneers were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a suspect Cowboys’ defense, and the Giants figure to be able to do the same.  Giants to start include QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Kevin Boss, WR Steve Smith, and K Lawrence Tynes.  Those in deeper leagues should consider starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WRs Domenik Hixon & Mario Manningham as well.  I don’t expect the Cowboys to have much success running the ball against the Giants’ defensive line, so hopefully you have alternatives to RBs Marion Barber & Felix Jones.  QB Tony Romo, bad ankle and all, looks like a great start against a depleted Giants’ secondary, as do TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting WR Patrick Crayton.

Indianapolis at Miami - When’s the last time you heard people questioning the Colts’ passing game with QB Peyton Manning at the helm?  Due to WR Anthony Gonzalez’ injury during Week 1, that’s exactly what’s happening.  WR Reggie Wayne picked up the slack after Gonzalez left the game, but he’s obviously not going to be able to chalk up 10 receptions and 162 receiving yards every week.  I’ve seen numerous debates this week over whether rookie WR Austin Collie, WR Pierre Garcon, or even newly-signed WR Hank Baskett is more likely to step up in Gonzalez’ absence.  I think it’s much more likely that the Colts look to TE Dallas Clark and RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown to make up for Gonzalez’ lost production.  Meanwhile, Miami looked much more like 2007’s 1-15 team than 2008’s 11-5 team in last week’s loss to the Falcons, and I expect that to be the case throughout the season.  Colts worth starting this week include Manning, Addai, Clark, Wayne, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting Brown.  The only Dolphins I’d start this week would be RB Ronnie Brown and TE Anthony Fasano.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the latest batch of players who’ve had their preseason projections updated:

• Harry Douglass (Atl, WR) - removed from database (season-ending knee injury) 
• D.J. Hackett (Was, WR) - added to database (free agent signing)
• Antwaan Randle El (Was, WR) - projections revised downward (passed on depth chart by WR Devin Thomas)
• Devin Thomas (Was, WR) - projections revised upward (passed Antwaan Randle El on depth chart)

Please let me know if you see any moves I may have missed, and I’ll be happy to update the database.

More updates to come as warranted by training camp developments.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hard to believe that football training camps start up again in a couple of weeks, along with the accompanying frenzy over fantasy football!

If you can’t wait until then to get your fantasy football fix, come on over tonight at 8pm Eastern to Mock Draft Central’s third Experts’ Draft of the season!  If you prefer live commentary with your fantasy football mock drafts, be sure to listen to FantasyPros911 as they provide play-by-play on Blog Talk Radio.

I’ll be picking tenth in a 12-team snake draft format.  This mock draft will use standard scoring (i.e. - non-Points Per Reception) with the following roster spots:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 3 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 FLEX (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DEF
• 5 Bench/Reserve spots (I intend to go w/ 1 QB, 2 RB, and 2 WR)

In case you’re interested, here’s a list of tonight’s participants and draft order:

1. Jason Pliml, Mock Draft Central
2. Cory Bonini, KFFL
3. Sean Haugh, FantasyPros911
4. Scott Engel, RotoExperts
5. Jason McCoy, Stinkball
6. Gil Brovar, Fantasy Football Mastermind
7. Alex Hardin, RotoRob
8. Todd Farino, Fantasy Football Search
9. Louis Tranquilli, BFD Fantasy Football
10. Scott Swanay, Fantasy Football Sherpa
11. Jay Clemons, Sports Illustrated
12. Steven Aldersley, Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports

Hope you’re able to watch and/or listen!

The Sherpa

www.FantasyFootballSherpa.com

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

After a recent experts’ mock draft for a fantasy football magazine, all of the participants (including the Sherpa) were invited to describe their approach to a fantasy football draft.  Here’s the gist of my response (with some extra thoughts included, since I’m not subject to a word count here, just your patience/willingness to read further!):

I’ll generally take Running Backs (RBs) with my first two picks so that I can avoid Running Back by Committee (RBBC) situations.  With more and more teams relying on RBBC, that gives you even more incentive to grab as many RBs not involved in a timeshare as you possibly can early in your draft.  Next, I’ll usually grab the two best available Wide Receivers (WRs) and fill any FLEX spots or remaining RB and WR spots, then start looking at Quarterbacks (QBs).  However, depending on roster requirements, I’d still consider taking backups at RB and WR before selecting my first QB.

I’ll almost always pick my starting QB and all my backups at QB, RB,  and WR before taking my Tight End (TE), Defense (DEF), and Kicker (K).  Fantasy scoring is almost totally random for Ks, and only slightly less so for DEFs; those roster spots should generally be filled last.  Finally, when selecting reserves, I tend to favor unproven players with high ceilings over steady but unspectacular veterans (think Chris Henry (Bengals’ version) vs. Antwaan Randle El).

I’m a huge believer in position scarcity, the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated and mediocre options at each position.  QBs score the most fantasy points in many scoring formats, so some might be tempted to take a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning (or a Tom Brady in 2008) with an early pick.  However, given that the drop-offs are much steeper at RB and WR than at QB, unless you have a highly unusually scoring system it doesn’t make sense to take a QB until after you’ve filled all your starting RB and WR spots.  Don’t waste Bench spots on TEs, Ks, and DEFs - you can almost always find a serviceable alternative in the free agent pool when you need one due to an injury or a bye week.  You’re much better off using those Bench spots on RBs and WRs - you can never have too much depth at those two positions!

Hopefully, I’ll be able to stick to this philosophy during tonight’s experts’ draft at 8pm on Mock Draft Central - we’ll see what happens!

Of course, the most important part of preparing for any fantasy football draft is to make sure that the player rankings you’re using reflect all the unique characteristics of your league.  If the player rankings don’t reflect your league’s # teams, roster requirements, scoring categories, and point values exactly, then you’re potentially putting yourself at a huge disadvantage heading into your draft.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Just wanted all of you out in Sherpaville know that the Sherpa was featured in an article that appeared in today’s Harvard Crimson (the student newspaper).  The article focuses more on baseball than football, but Fantasy Football Sherpa is also mentioned in the article!

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Great news!  Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that our Fantasy Football Sherpa blog  has been chosen as a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s (FSTA) Best Blog award!  This award recognizes the website with the best combination of information and presentation in a blog.  The winner will be announced next month at the FSTA’s meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

We are doubly honored because our sister site’s Fantasy Baseball Sherpa blog has also been chosen as a finalist in the same category!  (note:  fortunately, unlike the Oscars, the FSTA has no rule against multiple nominations in the same category!)

Enjoy the rest of the holiday season, and best wishes for health and happiness in the new year!

The Sherpa

For those whose fantasy football league’s schedule includes Week 17, my condolences.  Not only do you have to deal with the usual pitfalls of unanticipated injuries and subpar performances, you also have to deal with a number of teams that will effectively be treating this week’s contest as a scrimmage or preseason game.  This will likely limit your roster options and potentially force you to make some unpalatable lineup decisions.

This week there are five playoff-bound teams that have absolutely nothing to play for and figure to give their starters at least a half, if not the entire game, off.  Those teams are the NY Giants, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Arizona.  Avoid starting any players from these teams this week unless you’re either feeling really desperate or really lucky.  Two of these teams, Tennessee and Indianapolis, actually face each other in what should be dubbed the Jim Sorgi Bowl in honor of the Colts’ backup QB, who, much like the Punxsutawney Phil (the Groundhog) or the Swallows of San Juan Capistrano, makes an annual appearance you can set your watch by.  Needless to say, avoid any players involved in that game like the plague.

On the other hand there are three games this week that are in essence playoff games:  Miami at NY Jets, Dallas at Philadelphia, and Denver at San Diego (The Ed Hochuli Atonement Bowl).  Any healthy player involved with these three games is worth starting this week.

Here are some more thoughts on games and players for Week 17’s contests (all of which take place on Sunday):

NY Giants at Minnesota - The Giants have nothing to play for and a bunch of injured players in need of time to heal; the Vikings can clinch a division title and the playoff berth that goes with it with a victory.  Contrarians will point to last season’s Week 17 matchup between the Giants and the Patriots (where the Giants had nothing to play for but still made the Patriots earn their perfect regular season record) as evidence the Giants may decide to go all out for four quarters in this game.  The circumstances are completely different this year.  Last year’s Giants team needed the dose of confidence heading into the playoffs that came from playing as well as they did against the Patriots; this year’s team doesn’t.  RB Derrick Ward needs 52 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for the season, which would give the Giants a pair of 1,000-yard rushers (with RB Brandon Jacobs being the other).  Still, unless 52 yards rushing and no scores represents an upgrade to your current starting lineup, I’d pass.  If you really are intent on starting a Giants’ RB this weekend against the Vikings’ Defense, go with RB Ahmad Bradshaw instead.  Avoid Jacobs, QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss (Doubtful - ankle, concussion), and WR Amani Toomer.  For the Vikings start QB Tarvaris Jackson, RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bobby Wade, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  Avoid WR Bernard Berrian (Questionable - ankle).

St. Louis at Atlanta - The Rams have been somewhat better on Offense the last few weeks (”better” being a relative term), and Atlanta can potentially capture the NFC’s #2 seed with a victory, so both teams figure to be playing hard for four quarters.  Rams worth starting include QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson (Probable - hamstring), WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  Falcons worth starting include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam.  Avoid WRs Michael Jenkins (Questionable - shoulder) & Harry Douglas (Questionable - toe, shoulder).

New England at Buffalo - Unless you are a Patriots-hater, you have to admit that the emergence of QB Matt Cassel is one of the best stories in the NFL this year.  For a guy who hadn’t started a game since high school to replace Tom Brady and throw for almost 4,000 yards is an amazing accomplishment, and Cassel figures to cash in during the off-season (Detroit?  Minnesota?  NY Jets?  Cincinnati?).  Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris, Lamont Jordan, & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes “Snow Angel” Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting this week.  Bills worth starting include QB Trent Edwards, RB Fred Jackson, TE Robert Royal, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell.  I’d stay away from RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable - shoulder) unless you’ll have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff.

Detroit at Green Bay - Detroit may be using the rallying cry “This is our Super Bowl”, but it’s impossible to see how the outcome this week will be any different than it has for the Lions’ first 15 games this season.  Although the season has been a disappointing one for the Packers, the last thing they want to do is go down in history as the team the Lions beat to stave off an “unvictorious” season.  The only Lion you’d want to consider starting is RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - ankle) - he figures to play in spite of his injury.  Packers worth starting are QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.

Carolina at New Orleans - Both teams have something to play for - Carolina wraps up the NFC’s #2 seed with a victory, while New Orleans QB Drew Brees needs 402 passing yards to break Dan Marino’s 24-year-old single-season mark of 5,084.  Panthers worth starting include QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad (Probable - foot), and K John Kasay.  Saints worth starting include Brees, RB Deuce McAllister, TE Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley.  Leave TE Jeremy Shockey (Out - ankle) and RB Pierre Thomas (Questionable - wrist, back) out of your lineup.

Chicago at Houston - In order for the Bears to make the playoffs they need to win this game and hope the Giants are motivated enough to defeat the Vikings.  While the latter is highly unlikely to happen, the Bears also play an early game, so they figure to uphold their end of the bargain.  Start QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Garrett Olsen & Desmond Clark, WR Devin Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Texans worth starting are QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - There’s far too much uncertainty regarding this game to have any confidence starting anyone from either team.  Still, if you’re desperate, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis, WR Braylon Edwards, and the Defense all have the potential to do well playing against the Steelers’ second-stringers for most of the game.  Avoid starting any Steelers at all costs.

Kansas City at Cincinnati - If weather conditions permit, this could actually be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day.  Start Kansas City QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.  Bengals to start include QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chris Henry, and K Shayne Graham.  I’d avoid WR Chad Ocho Cinco (Questionable - hamstring).

Tennessee at Indianapolis - Unless you are the kind of person who would still send money to Bernard Madoff to invest, the Sherpa advises you to steer clear of all players who have anything to do with this game (yes, even Jim Sorgi).  Enough said.

Oakland at Tampa Bay - Oakland is another team that’s been somewhat better in recent weeks, but the Raiders don’t figure to have enough of a passing game to win this contest.  Raiders to start include RB Justin Fargas (Probable - neck), and TE Zack Miller.  Add RB Darren McFadden (Questionable - ankle) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.  Bucs worth starting include QB Jeff Garcia (Probable - calf), RBs Warrick Dunn & Cadillac Williams, and WR Antonio Bryant.

Jacksonville at Baltimore - A disappointing season for the Jaguars figures to end on a sour note.  RB Maurice Jones-Drew and TE Marcedes Lewis are the only Jags worth considering for your starting lineup.  Ravens to start include RBs Le’Ron McClain & Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.

Miami at NY Jets  - The Jets’ history has been full of disappointments, but should the Jets lose this game to fall to 9-7 (after starting the season 8-3) and miss the playoffs, this team will likely be lumped together with the 1986 team that started the season 10-1, then lost its last 5 games and missed the playoffs.  Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington, who was unceremoniously dumped by the Jets last off-season in favor of QB Brett Favre, can help put the final nail in the coffin this week in a seemingly made-for-TV drama.  Dolphins to start include Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Jets to start include Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jerricho Cotchery (Probable - Shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Dallas at Philadelphia - Lots of subplots surround this game too, which also has playoff implications for both teams.  Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and Wade Phillips, just to name a few of the characters involved.  Cowboys who should be in fantasy lineups this weekend include QB Romo (Probable - illness), RB Tashard Choice, TE Witten (Probable - ankle), and WR Owens.  I’d avoid RB Marion Barber (Questionable - toe).  Eagles to start include QB McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee, ankle), and WRs Kevin Curtis (Probable - calf) & DeSean Jackson.

Washington at San Francisco - No playoff berths riding on the outcome of this game, but still a number of worthwhile options from a fantasy perspective.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  The only 49er worth starting against the Redskins’ Defense is RB Frank Gore (Probable - ankle).

Seattle at Arizona - Tough to know what to make of this game - Arizona has already clinched a playoff berth, and in theory has nothing to play for.  However, they’ve looked so bad the last couple of weeks in losses to the Vikings and Patriots, that they may be motivated to play their starters longer than you might expect in an effort to regain some momentum heading into the playoffs.  Still, since the Cardinals will be hosting a playoff game next weekend, I would bet against their starters playing more than half the game, and as such, I would leave them all out of a fantasy lineup this week.  The Seahawks offer a number of options, especially if the Cardinals pack it in early - QB Seneca Wallace, RB Maurice Morris, TE John Carlson, WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram, K Olindo Mare, and the Defense are all worth starting.

Denver at San Diego - The NBC Sports execs may see this game as the ultimate conclusion to the regular season.  The winner is guaranteed the AFC West title and the playoff berth that goes with it; the loser will be watching the playoffs from home.  Momentum definitely favors the home team Chargers, and, if you believe in such things, karma also figures to be on their side (assuming Ed Hochuli is not assigned to referee this game).  It’s likely the winner will be facing a “one and done” playoff scenario, but there are a number of good fantasy options on both teams.  Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TEs Daniel Graham (Probable - ankle) & Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip) & Eddie Royal (Probable - thumb), and K Matt Prater.  Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, and K Nate Kaeding.

Enjoy the final weekend of the regular season, and enjoy the playoffs!  It’s been a blast, and we’ll do it again next year!

The Sherpa

For those whose fantasy football leagues let fate play a major part in deciding your league champion, this one’s for you.  Holding your league’s championship game during Week 17, when many playoff-bound teams rest their regulars, may make things more interesting (read:  random), but if that’s what you’re up against, then read on.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  You’ll notice that Jim Sorgi is conspicuously absent.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Seneca Wallace.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Chris Henry, Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Donald Lee, Anthony Fasano, Desmond Clark.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Robbie Gould, Neil Rackers, Olindo Mare, Sebastian Janikowski.

Defenses

Seattle, Atlanta.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

NFL Week 16 is notable for two reasons:  (1) the top seeds in both conferences are at stake, and (2) most fantasy football leagues crown their champions.  The Panthers and Giants will battle for NFC home-field advantage on a cold (and possibly snowy) night in the Meadowlands.  The Steelers will visit the Titans to determine AFC regular-season bragging rights (I’m assuming the Steelers would be able to beat the Browns next weekend).  And fantasy football leagues across the land will conclude their seasons a week early to avoid having the results of their championship games skewed by the likes of Jim Sorgi, David Carr, and Byron Leftwich.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 16’s Saturday, Sunday & Monday contests:

Baltimore at Dallas - Saturday games at the end of the season used to be a staple of the NFL’s schedule.  Unfortunately, the advent of Thursday night games and college football’s never-ending bowl season have seemingly ended this holiday season tradition.  This farewell to Texas Stadium will feature endless flashbacks, aerial shots of the stadium, and, undoubtedly, pictures of Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones strolling the sidelines.  And oh yes, it will also feature a good football game between two teams fighting for their playoff lives.  The Ravens are almost definitely out of the playoff hunt if they lose.  The Cowboys would have a slightly better chance of recovering from a loss, but not by much.  Ravens worth starting this week include RBs LeRon McClain & Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice (Questionable - calf).  Cowboys who should be in starting lineups include TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), WR Terrell Owens, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Tony Romo (Probable - back), RB Marion Barber (Questionable - toe), and RB Tashard Choice (healthy, but still facing the Ravens’ stifling run Defense).

Atlanta at Minnesota - The key to this game may very well be the absence of a man who probably isn’t on a team in your league, unless you play in an IDP (Individual Defensive Players) league.  How will the Vikings compensate for the loss of Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Pat Williams?  With Williams in the lineup the Vikings are virtually impossible to run against.  Without him may be a completely different story.  Given Williams’ absence and the strong Falcons’ ground game, I’d guess that the Falcons will be able to run the ball on the Vikings.  That makes Falcons’ RB Michael Turner a great start and RB Jerious Norwood a good start this week.  Other Falcons worth starting - QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins.  Vikings’ QB Tarvaris Jackson seems much more comfortable (and effective) now than he did when he was starting earlier this season.  I’d start Jackson, as well as RBs Adrian Peterson (Probable - ankle) & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell.

Arizona at New England - One of several games this weekend with playoff implications in which weather could become a factor.  The forecast calls for a cold day with a chance of snow late in the game.  These conditions definitely favor the Patriots and their superior rushing game.  The Cardinals have no ground game to speak of, and top WR Anquan Boldin is Questionable with a shoulder injury.  Since the Cardinals’ greatest concern at this point is getting healthy for the playoffs (even if it means finishing with an 8-8 record), I wouldn’t start Boldin this weekend if I had better (i.e. - healthier) options.  QB Kurt Warner and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Steve Breaston are the Cardinals worth starting.  Patriots worth starting include QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, & Lamont Jordan, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski.

San Diego at Tampa Bay - Fortunately, weather should play no role in determining the outcome of this game, which also has playoff implications.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers figures to have a tough time throwing against the Bucs’ Defense, so I’d leave him out of your starting lineup this week in spite of his production year-to-date.  The only Chargers’ I’d want in my lineup this week are RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates.  It’s unclear who will be starting at QB for the Bucs this week, so I’d steer clear of QB Jeff Garcia (Questionable - calf) as well as his potential replacements.  Bucs worth starting include RBs Warrick Dunn & Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and WR Antonio Bryant.

San Francisco at St. Louis - Finally, a game that features neither playoff implications nor the potential for bad weather.  However, there are still injuries to be concerned about, most notably 49ers’ RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle).  Again, unless you’re going to have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff Sunday afternoon, I’d err on the side of caution and look for healthier alternatives.  49ers who are healthy and should be in starting lineups include QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson, and K Joe Nedney.  Add RB DeShaun Foster to the list if Gore is unable to play.  The Rams are unquestionably a bad football team, but there are still opportunities to mine their lineup for fantasy gold this weekend.  QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry “Scoreboard” Holt & Donnie Avery are all worth starting in your quest for a championship.

Philadelphia at Washington - In spite of their devastating overtime tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the Eagles still have a good chance of getting into the playoffs if they can win this game and get help this weekend from the Vikings.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee), TE L.J. Smith, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense.  I’d avoid WR Kevin Curtis (Questionable - calf) if I had a healthier option.  The wheels have come off Washington’s wagon in recent weeks, and the only Redskin I’d start this week would be TE Chris Cooley.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee - Yet another in a string of games for the Steelers where both Defenses are much better than their Offensive counterparts.  In spite of the injury to key Titans’ Defensive cogs Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, I’d avoid all Steelers’ Offensive players this week except for TE Heath Miller.  Similarly, I’d avoid all Titans except for TE Bo Scaife.  As you might suspect, both Defenses are worth starting.

Miami at Kansas City - If you predicted before the season began that this game would have playoff implications, your crystal ball is obviously clearer than the Sherpa’s (or anyone else’s, for that matter).  The brutal temperature figures to affect both teams, but an absence of wind should still allow the passing games to flourish.  Dolphins worth starting include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - Another game with draft position implications rather than playoff implications.  Still, the Bengals have been playing better in recent weeks, and there may be some fantasy nuggets here to be mined.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson, TE Reggie Kelly, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable - hand), Chad Johnson (Probable - hamstring), & Chris Henry, K Shayne Graham, and the Bengals’ Defense are all worth starting.  The only Browns’ players I’d recommend starting this week would be RB Jamal Lewis and WR Braylon Edwards.

New Orleans at Detroit - Many writers, most prominently Yahoo’s Michael Silver, have been stating for weeks that this game represents Detroit’s best chance to win a game this season.  While that may be true, I just don’t see it happening and forecast yet another lopsided loss for the Lions.  Just as an aside, the Rams have been outscored by even more points than the Lions this season, but at least they have two wins to show for it (against the Redskins and Cowboys no less - go figure).  Saints’ QB Drew Brees, RB Pierre Thomas, TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley are all worth starting this week.  Lions worth starting include QB Dan Orlovsky and WR Calvin Johnson.  Add RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - ankle) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

Buffalo at Denver - Even with two porous Defenses, there aren’t as many fantasy options in this game as you might expect.  Bills’ WR Lee Evans should be started; add RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s well enough to play.  Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip/thigh) & Eddie Royal, K Matt Prater, and the Defense (because the Bills’ Offense is a mess).

NY Jets at Seattle  - Much has been made of both the Jets’ 0-3 record this year in West Coast games and the Seahawks’ recent improvement on Offense under QB Seneca Wallace.  In spite of that, I expect the Jets to win this game and set themselves up for next week’s showdown with the Dolphins.  Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jerricho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles, K Jay Feely, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk I’d start is TE John Carlson.

Houston at Oakland - Yet another game with no playoff implications but a number of potential fantasy contributors.  Texans worth starting include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown. The only Raiders I’d start are RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden.

Carolina at NY Giants - Another game (aka - the battle of the Steve Smiths) with playoff implications that may be affected by weather.  In spite of the Giants’ struggles the past two weeks and the Panthers’ recent successes on Offense, the only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith.  Giants worth starting include QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss, WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith, and K John Carney.  Add RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable - knee) to the list if he’s able to play; add RBs Derrick Ward (Probable - ankle) and Ahmad Bradshaw (Probable - neck) to the list if Jacobs isn’t able to play.

Green Bay at Chicago - One final game with playoff implications that may be affected by brutally cold temperatures.  Packers worth starting include QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Brandon Lloyd & Devin Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Add RB Matt Forte (Questionable - toe) to the list if he’s able to play.

With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa