The Fantasy Football Sherpa

For those whose fantasy football leagues let fate play a major part in deciding your league champion, this one’s for you.  Holding your league’s championship game during Week 17, when many playoff-bound teams rest their regulars, may make things more interesting (read:  random), but if that’s what you’re up against, then read on.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  You’ll notice that Jim Sorgi is conspicuously absent.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Seneca Wallace.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Chris Henry, Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Donald Lee, Anthony Fasano, Desmond Clark.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Robbie Gould, Neil Rackers, Olindo Mare, Sebastian Janikowski.

Defenses

Seattle, Atlanta.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

NFL Week 16 is notable for two reasons:  (1) the top seeds in both conferences are at stake, and (2) most fantasy football leagues crown their champions.  The Panthers and Giants will battle for NFC home-field advantage on a cold (and possibly snowy) night in the Meadowlands.  The Steelers will visit the Titans to determine AFC regular-season bragging rights (I’m assuming the Steelers would be able to beat the Browns next weekend).  And fantasy football leagues across the land will conclude their seasons a week early to avoid having the results of their championship games skewed by the likes of Jim Sorgi, David Carr, and Byron Leftwich.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 16’s Saturday, Sunday & Monday contests:

Baltimore at Dallas - Saturday games at the end of the season used to be a staple of the NFL’s schedule.  Unfortunately, the advent of Thursday night games and college football’s never-ending bowl season have seemingly ended this holiday season tradition.  This farewell to Texas Stadium will feature endless flashbacks, aerial shots of the stadium, and, undoubtedly, pictures of Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones strolling the sidelines.  And oh yes, it will also feature a good football game between two teams fighting for their playoff lives.  The Ravens are almost definitely out of the playoff hunt if they lose.  The Cowboys would have a slightly better chance of recovering from a loss, but not by much.  Ravens worth starting this week include RBs LeRon McClain & Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice (Questionable - calf).  Cowboys who should be in starting lineups include TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), WR Terrell Owens, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Tony Romo (Probable - back), RB Marion Barber (Questionable - toe), and RB Tashard Choice (healthy, but still facing the Ravens’ stifling run Defense).

Atlanta at Minnesota - The key to this game may very well be the absence of a man who probably isn’t on a team in your league, unless you play in an IDP (Individual Defensive Players) league.  How will the Vikings compensate for the loss of Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Pat Williams?  With Williams in the lineup the Vikings are virtually impossible to run against.  Without him may be a completely different story.  Given Williams’ absence and the strong Falcons’ ground game, I’d guess that the Falcons will be able to run the ball on the Vikings.  That makes Falcons’ RB Michael Turner a great start and RB Jerious Norwood a good start this week.  Other Falcons worth starting - QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins.  Vikings’ QB Tarvaris Jackson seems much more comfortable (and effective) now than he did when he was starting earlier this season.  I’d start Jackson, as well as RBs Adrian Peterson (Probable - ankle) & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell.

Arizona at New England - One of several games this weekend with playoff implications in which weather could become a factor.  The forecast calls for a cold day with a chance of snow late in the game.  These conditions definitely favor the Patriots and their superior rushing game.  The Cardinals have no ground game to speak of, and top WR Anquan Boldin is Questionable with a shoulder injury.  Since the Cardinals’ greatest concern at this point is getting healthy for the playoffs (even if it means finishing with an 8-8 record), I wouldn’t start Boldin this weekend if I had better (i.e. - healthier) options.  QB Kurt Warner and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Steve Breaston are the Cardinals worth starting.  Patriots worth starting include QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, & Lamont Jordan, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski.

San Diego at Tampa Bay - Fortunately, weather should play no role in determining the outcome of this game, which also has playoff implications.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers figures to have a tough time throwing against the Bucs’ Defense, so I’d leave him out of your starting lineup this week in spite of his production year-to-date.  The only Chargers’ I’d want in my lineup this week are RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates.  It’s unclear who will be starting at QB for the Bucs this week, so I’d steer clear of QB Jeff Garcia (Questionable - calf) as well as his potential replacements.  Bucs worth starting include RBs Warrick Dunn & Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and WR Antonio Bryant.

San Francisco at St. Louis - Finally, a game that features neither playoff implications nor the potential for bad weather.  However, there are still injuries to be concerned about, most notably 49ers’ RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle).  Again, unless you’re going to have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff Sunday afternoon, I’d err on the side of caution and look for healthier alternatives.  49ers who are healthy and should be in starting lineups include QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson, and K Joe Nedney.  Add RB DeShaun Foster to the list if Gore is unable to play.  The Rams are unquestionably a bad football team, but there are still opportunities to mine their lineup for fantasy gold this weekend.  QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry “Scoreboard” Holt & Donnie Avery are all worth starting in your quest for a championship.

Philadelphia at Washington - In spite of their devastating overtime tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the Eagles still have a good chance of getting into the playoffs if they can win this game and get help this weekend from the Vikings.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee), TE L.J. Smith, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense.  I’d avoid WR Kevin Curtis (Questionable - calf) if I had a healthier option.  The wheels have come off Washington’s wagon in recent weeks, and the only Redskin I’d start this week would be TE Chris Cooley.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee - Yet another in a string of games for the Steelers where both Defenses are much better than their Offensive counterparts.  In spite of the injury to key Titans’ Defensive cogs Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, I’d avoid all Steelers’ Offensive players this week except for TE Heath Miller.  Similarly, I’d avoid all Titans except for TE Bo Scaife.  As you might suspect, both Defenses are worth starting.

Miami at Kansas City - If you predicted before the season began that this game would have playoff implications, your crystal ball is obviously clearer than the Sherpa’s (or anyone else’s, for that matter).  The brutal temperature figures to affect both teams, but an absence of wind should still allow the passing games to flourish.  Dolphins worth starting include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - Another game with draft position implications rather than playoff implications.  Still, the Bengals have been playing better in recent weeks, and there may be some fantasy nuggets here to be mined.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson, TE Reggie Kelly, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable - hand), Chad Johnson (Probable - hamstring), & Chris Henry, K Shayne Graham, and the Bengals’ Defense are all worth starting.  The only Browns’ players I’d recommend starting this week would be RB Jamal Lewis and WR Braylon Edwards.

New Orleans at Detroit - Many writers, most prominently Yahoo’s Michael Silver, have been stating for weeks that this game represents Detroit’s best chance to win a game this season.  While that may be true, I just don’t see it happening and forecast yet another lopsided loss for the Lions.  Just as an aside, the Rams have been outscored by even more points than the Lions this season, but at least they have two wins to show for it (against the Redskins and Cowboys no less - go figure).  Saints’ QB Drew Brees, RB Pierre Thomas, TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley are all worth starting this week.  Lions worth starting include QB Dan Orlovsky and WR Calvin Johnson.  Add RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - ankle) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

Buffalo at Denver - Even with two porous Defenses, there aren’t as many fantasy options in this game as you might expect.  Bills’ WR Lee Evans should be started; add RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s well enough to play.  Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip/thigh) & Eddie Royal, K Matt Prater, and the Defense (because the Bills’ Offense is a mess).

NY Jets at Seattle  - Much has been made of both the Jets’ 0-3 record this year in West Coast games and the Seahawks’ recent improvement on Offense under QB Seneca Wallace.  In spite of that, I expect the Jets to win this game and set themselves up for next week’s showdown with the Dolphins.  Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jerricho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles, K Jay Feely, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk I’d start is TE John Carlson.

Houston at Oakland - Yet another game with no playoff implications but a number of potential fantasy contributors.  Texans worth starting include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown. The only Raiders I’d start are RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden.

Carolina at NY Giants - Another game (aka - the battle of the Steve Smiths) with playoff implications that may be affected by weather.  In spite of the Giants’ struggles the past two weeks and the Panthers’ recent successes on Offense, the only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith.  Giants worth starting include QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss, WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith, and K John Carney.  Add RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable - knee) to the list if he’s able to play; add RBs Derrick Ward (Probable - ankle) and Ahmad Bradshaw (Probable - neck) to the list if Jacobs isn’t able to play.

Green Bay at Chicago - One final game with playoff implications that may be affected by brutally cold temperatures.  Packers worth starting include QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Brandon Lloyd & Devin Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Add RB Matt Forte (Questionable - toe) to the list if he’s able to play.

With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

With most leagues’ championship games taking place this weekend, this week’s Thursday night game offers a number of options that may be able to give your team a leg up on the competition heading into the weekend’s games.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - For the second week in a row the Thursday night game features a dome team going on the road.  While New Orleans’ defeat in Chicago last week was quite foreseeable, an Indianapolis loss this week in Jacksonville would be a complete shocker, and it’s not going to happen.  The only suspense heading into this game is which Colts’ Running Back will get to do the honors against a Jacksonville Defense that appears to be playing out the string.  RB Joseph Addai is listed as Questionable with a shoulder injury - unless you’ll have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff, don’t take the risk that would come with starting him - his backfield mate RB Dominic Rhodes is a much safer (and probably better) play this week.  Other Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, WRs Reggie Wayne &  Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense.  Note that WR Marvin Harrison has already been declared out for the game, and TE Dallas Clark is listed as Questionable with a hip injury (if Clark plays, he’s worth starting too).  The only Jaguars worth starting are RB Maurice Jones-Drew and TE Marcedes Lewis.

More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa

Congratulations to those who advanced to the finals in your league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 15 games!  One more challenge to be met before you can be crowned champion of your league and have bragging rights for the next year (or at least until next year’s draft)!  Actually, two more if you happen to be an unfortunate owner with Reggie Bush in your starting lineup.  Since Bush has been placed on Injured Reserve and is done for the season, you’ll need to find a replacement.  Some of you may also be looking for free agents with more favorable matchups than those for the players currently on your roster.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  As was the case last week, any players on this list are just one-week recommendations at this point.

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Tarvaris Jackson, Marc Bulger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell.

Running Backs

DeShaun Foster, Kevin Faulk, Fred Jackson, Lamont Jordan.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Bobby Wade, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Davone Bess, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Sidney Rice, Chris Henry, James Jones.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Billy Miller.

Kickers

Garrett Hartley, Joe Nedney, Josh Brown, Joe Nedney, Jason Hanson, Dan Carpenter, Connor Barth.

Defenses

Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Denver.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

With fantasy football playoffs in full swing, there’s no margin for error.  Lose and your season comes to an abrupt end, leaving you to press your nose against the window of the fantasy football playoffs store for another week or two, wishing you were inside amid the warmth instead of left out in the cold.  Matchup analysis becomes even more critical during than playoff weeks than it is during the regular season, so let’s have at it.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 15’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Seattle at St. Louis - In your hunt to garner the points necessary for a playoff week victory, don’t overlook potential contributors from bad teams (such as these two).  Each team has several players who may help push you over the top this week.  Seahawks worth starting include QB Seneca Wallace, RB Maurice Morris, TE John Carlson, WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare.  Rams worth starting are QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery.

San Francisco at Miami - San Francisco’s Offense figures to be able to pass the ball against the Dolphins.  The Dolphins figure to be able to do whatever they want to on Offense against the 49ers.  San Francisco QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson are all worth starting.  Star RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle) is also worth starting if he’s healthy enough to play.  Miami players who should be started include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.

Buffalo at NY Jets - These two teams have a lot more in common besides their division and home state.  First the Bills, then the Jets, looked like they might be a dominant team this season.  Then, the wheels started to come off for both teams.  It’s hard to see a team like the Jets that’s wrung up losses the last two weeks to the Broncos and 49ers (and more importantly, has looked terrible doing so) making the playoffs.  However, the Jets still have a chance to pull out of their tailspin and make the playoffs, while the Bills are already “playing for pride”.  Bills worth starting include QB J.P. Losman, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, and WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed.  The Jets have even more startworthy options - the list includes QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Denver at Carolina - Broncos RB Tatum Bell comes with a lot of baggage, including some he allegedly stole from former Lions’ teammate Cedric Benson.  However, in what seems like a league full of players receiving second chances, Bell now finds himself the Broncos’ starting RB again with little competition for the role (Selvin Young is listed as Probable with a groin injury, so although he may receive a number of carries, it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as Bell).  If your other RBs have bad matchups this week, Bell is definitely startworthy against the Panthers’ run Defense.  Other Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  Panthers worth pouncing on and putting in your starting lineup include QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay.

Green Bay at Jacksonville - For all the debate prior to the season re: whether the Packers should turn over the reins to QB Aaron Rodgers or bring back Brett Favre for one more season, Rodgers has been the far more effective of the two from a fantasy perspective (if not from a won-loss perspective).  Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be included in fantasy lineups this week.  Jaguars who should be started include QB David Garrard, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Reggie Williams, and K Josh Scobee.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - The over/under points total for this game shouldn’t be much above 2 - the two teams’ Defenses are that dominant, and their Offenses are that mediocre.  Accordingly, the only players who should be started along with the two teams’ Defenses are TE Heath Miller for Pittsburgh and TE Todd Heap for Baltimore.  I’m not sure what the opposite of a barn-burner is, but whatever it is, that’s what you should expect this game to be.

San Diego at Kansas City - This game, on the other hand, could be a barn-burner.  Remember how dominant the Chargers’ Defense was supposed to be according to all the preseason hype?  Hasn’t exactly worked out that way, has it?  Just another case study for why you should always wait until the last round or two to pick your Defense (picking a Kicker in the other round).  Offensively, the Chargers are still a potentially explosive team, and QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should all be started.  Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.

Detroit at Indianapolis - At the risk of having the Lions and the Colts (or the Saints or the Packers) make me look foolish, we’re on the verge of history here - the Lions should become the first team to go through a 16-game NFL schedule without a single victory.  With Daunte Culpeper hurt and no clear replacement (Drew Henson, anyone?), none of the Lions, not even the ultratalented Calvin Johnson (Questionable - hand) should be in your lineup this weekend.  The Colts on the other hand offer an embarrassment of riches this week.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Domenic Rhodes, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense all belong in starting lineups this weekend.  Add RB Joseph Addai (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

Tennessee at Houston - A great matchup between Tennessee’s strong Defense and Houston’s powerful Offense.  Titans worth starting include QB Kerry Collins, RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brad Jones, and K Rob Bironas.  In spite of their powerful Offense, the only Titans I’d be comfortable starting this week are TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - I’m not sure which is harder to fathom - Atlanta’s well-rounded Offense or their total lack of Defense.  Tampa Bay figures to be able to exploit the latter while having some success dealing with the former.  Bucs worth starting this week include resurgent RB Warrick Dunn, TE Alex Smith, WRs Antonio Bryant & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant.  Atlanta figures to have more success moving the ball on the ground than through the air - Falcons to start include RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WR Roddy White.

Washington at Cincinnati  - I’ve found myself wondering recently who would win if the Lions and the Bengals were to play each other.  Fortunately, we won’t have to find out this season.  This week it’s the Redskins’ turn to exploit the Bengals’ disastrous combination of injuries and lack of team chemistry.  Redskins to start this week include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  Leave all Bengals on the bench - this is yet another NETJH weekend for them (Not Even T.J. Houshmandzadeh).

Minnesota at Arizona - If the over/under for total points in the Steelers-Ravens game should be only slightly north of 2, then the over/under for total points in this game should be only slightly south of 70. Vikes’ QB Tarvaris Jackson is the only reason I think the total points might not exceed that figure.  Still, Jackson is worth starting if your other QBs have tough matchups this week, are injured, or are named Ryan Fitzpatrick (in which case you’re probably not in your league’s playoffs to begin with).  Other Vikings who should be started include RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell.  Cardinals worth starting include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower (on the assumption that he’ll be a passing target out of the backfield), and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Questionable - ribs) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

New England at Oakland -Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel is dealing with the passing of his father this week, and it’s unclear whether he’ll play Sunday.  Assuming he does, Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting.  If Cassel is replaced at QB by Kevin O’Connell, then strike Welker and Moss from the list in addition to Cassel.  Raiders worth starting include RB Justin Fargas, RB Darren McFadden, and TE Heath Miller.

NY Giants at Dallas - For all the offensive firepower that will be on display in this game, it’s important to remember that the two Defenses are no slouches, suggesting that you pass on most players associated with this game.  Giants worth starting include RB Derrick Ward and TE Kevin Boss.  Cowboys worth starting are QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), and WR Terrell Owens.

Cleveland at Philadelphia - Maybe it’s something in the water in Ohio.  Maybe it’s just that both the Browns and Bengals are overmatched this week.  In either case, there are no Browns worth starting this week, just as there are no Bengals worth starting this week.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - ankle, knee), TE L.J. Smith (Probable - knee), WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Defense.

With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone!

Just wanted to let you know that the Sherpa will be a guest on today’s Good Day Street Talk show, seen on FOX Channel 5 in NYC from 6-6:30am.  I’m not sure when within that period the interview will run.  The topic - starting a small business during challenging economic times.

Hope you’re able to watch/record it!

The Sherpa

By now all fantasy football leagues are into the second season (i.e. - the playoffs).  Unlike the NFL, there is no real advantage to having the best regular season record.  There is a fair amount of randomness in the fantasy football regular season, especially at the individual player level, but even at the team level (e.g. - how many times have you had the second highest-scoring team in your league for a week, only to lose because you had the misfortune of playing the highest-scoring team that week?)

When you’re looking at a one-game sample, such as the fantasy football playoffs, that randomness is much greater still.  The “best team” does not always win  If a couple of your star players just happen to have poor games in the same week (e.g. - Tom Brady in Week 14 last season against the Jets), your season is likely over.  Conversely, an unanticipated contribution from an unexpected source can propel your team to victory (Ron Dayne, anyone?)

Although all fantasy football team owners hope the “Dayne Effect” will pick their team up and take it on a magic carpet ride to the league championship, keep in mind that hope is not a plan.  Now more than ever, you need to manage your team on a week-to-week basis.  Have any Steelers or Ravens offensive players in your starting lineup?  Not a good idea this week, since the two defensive heavyweights square off in Baltimore.  You may be better off going with offensive players from Seattle and St. Louis, who have the advantage of facing each other’s Defenses.  Now is not the time to let pride or fear cloud your judgment.  If you have a great player with a lousy matchup this week, look for alternatives.  Don’t worry, the player will get over not being in your starting lineup this week.

This Thursday’s game offers a number of options on both teams that may be able to jump-start your team for your playoff game this week.

New Orleans at Chicago - You’ve read/heard it a thousand times.  Dome teams don’t play well outdoors in cold-weather cities late in the season.  Does this mean you should keep Drew Brees and company on the bench this week?  Of course not!  It’s highly unlikely the Saints, even Pierre Thomas (this year’s Ron Dayne?), will be able to move the ball on the ground against Chicago’s tough run Defense.  If Brees is forced to throw 45-50 times, which may very well happen tonight, he’s going to put up the kind of fantasy stats that will help your team, even if the game is played on the shores of Lake Michigan.  Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson should all be in starting lineups this week.  While the Bears certainly aren’t as strong offensively as the Saints, their offense should have success moving the ball against the Saints both on the ground and through the air.  Start QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & TE Desmond Clark (Questionable - hamstring), WRs Devin Hester & Rashied Davis, and K Robbie Gould.

More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa

Congratulations to those who qualified for or advanced in their league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 14 games!  Now the fun begins.  Perhaps your team suffered an untimely injury last weekend (e.g. - Peyton Hillis).  Perhaps your team is heavily dependent on a star Running Back whose health is questionable (e.g. - Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore).  Perhaps Matt Jones was starting at Wide Receiver for your team.  Perhaps you were relying on Gus Frerotte at Quarterback - well, maybe not (if so, it’s highly unlikely you’d be reading this) . . .

Whether due to injury, a poor matchup, or simply to block an opponent from snagging a player for their upcoming matchup with your team, for those whose league rules permit roster adjustments during playoff weeks, it’s crucial to optimize your matchups on a weekly basis.  Lose at this point, and your fantasy football season is likely over.  You don’t want to have to listen to leaguemates discuss fantasy football playoffs that no longer include you.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll no longer divide recommendations into Short Term, Long Term, and Speculative pickups - at this point, any player I list is recommended based solely on their next matchup (warning - this will make the lists much shorter than they’ve been in previous weeks).

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Daunte Culpepper.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles, Ahmard Hall.

Wide Receivers

Bobby Engram, Brandon Jones, Brandon Stokley, Ike Hilliard, Steve Smith (NYG), Hank Baskett, Henry Douglas, Jordy Nelson.

Tight Ends

Donald Lee, Desmond Clark, Marcedes Lewis, Jerramy Stevens, David Martin.

Kickers

Josh Brown, Robbie Gould, Connor Barth, Dan Carpenter.

Defenses

Seattle, St. Louis.

Admittedly, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here in many cases, but frankly, there are far fewer viable options to choose from  at the end of the season if you’re taking just a one-week view.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Between the seemingly nonstop coverage the last few days of the trials and tribulations of O.J. Simpson, Plaxico Burress, and (to a lesser extent) Shaun Ellis, you may be forgiven if you wonder whether there are any actual games being played this week.  Let’s get the focus back on the field, where it belongs, and hope it stays there for awhile.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 14’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Cincinnati at Indianapolis - A lot of bad football teams are said to be playing for “pride” late in the season.  Pride is no match for a motivated football team, and the Bengals figure to be no match for the Colts either.  Accordingly, there are no Bengals I would recommend starting this week (yes, that includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh).  It’s a different story for the Colts - QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense should all be started this week.

Cleveland at Tennessee - The Browns are another example of a team playing for pride, and the Titans are another example of a motivated team.  The Browns are now down to their third-string quarterback (Ken Dorsey), and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as successful as the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback (Tyler Thigpen) has been.  Then again, hopefully no embarrassing pictures will emerge of Dorsey holding a skeleton while he was in college.  At least the Browns have a player worth starting this week - that would be RB Jamal Lewis (wonder what he’s thinking this week with all the news about football players and law enforcement).  Consider yourself fortunate if you have any Titans on your roster - QB Kerry Collins, RBs Chris Johnson & LenDale White, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense are all worth starting.

Houston at Green Bay - Who will start at quarterback this week for the Texans - Sage Rosenfels or Matt Schaub?  The answer, at least from your perspective, is that it doesn’t matter - neither one should be started against a strong Packers’ pass Defense.  However, Texans’ RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should be started.  Packers worth starting this week include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (Probable - thumb), TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.

Minnesota at Detroit - The Vikings are yet another motivated team, and the Lions are yet another team playing for pride (the pride of the Lions?).  Vikings who should be in starting lineups this weekend include QB Gus Frerotte, RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  The only Lion I’d start is WR Calvin Johnson.

Jacksonville at Chicago - Jacksonville plays the role of the “pride team” in this game, while the Bears play the role of the “motivated team”.  The Jaguars don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but they should be able to amass a decent number of passing yards.  Start QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WRs Matt Jones & Reggie Williams.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, & Brandon Lloyd, and K Robbie Gould.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - In a game featuring two Offenses capable of producing big point totals, I’m actually avoiding most players on both teams - there’s just too much uncertainty given the strength of both teams on Defense.  The only Eagles I’d recommend starting are RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee, ankle) and TE L.J. Smith (Probable - hamstring).  The only Giant I’d recommend starting is TE Kevin Boss (Jeremy who?).

Atlanta at New Orleans - On paper at least this figures to be the highest-scoring game of the week, as both Offenses are high-flying, and both Defenses are suspect.  Falcons who should be started include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WRs Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, & Henry Douglas.  Saints worth starting include QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush (Probable - knee), TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley.  Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if he plays; add RB Pierre Thomas to the list if he doesn’t.

NY Jets at San Francisco - One could argue that the 49ers are more than a “pride team” since Head Coach Mike Singletary took over, but the Jets are clearly the more motivated team here. Start Jets’ QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder) & Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh), and K Jay Feely.  The 49ers’ passing game should be able to move the ball on the Jets’ Defense, so start QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce.

Miami at Buffalo - This game is the first NFL contest to be played north of the border (in Toronto), and both teams have a number of worthwhile fantasy options.  Dolphins who should be in your starting lineup include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Bills who should be started include RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell.

Kansas City at Denver - Think of this game as Atlanta-New Orleans lite - two teams with plentiful options on Offense going against Defenses that have little to no chance of stopping them.  Chiefs who should be started this week include QB Tyler Thigpen (pay attention, Ken Dorsey!), RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, and K Connor Barth.  Broncos worth starting this week include QB Jay Cutler, RB Peyton Hillis, WRs Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip), & Brandon Stokley, and K Matt Prater.

New England at Seattle  - The Patriots are the motivated team, the Seahawks are the pride team.  You know what to do by now.  Start Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker (Probable - head) & Randy Moss, K Sebastien Gostkowski, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk worth starting is TE John Carlson.

St. Louis at Arizona - St. Louis is your pride team; Arizona’s your motivated team.  Start Rams’ QB Marc Bulger (no, I’m not crazy), RB Steven Jackson (Questionable - thigh), and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery (Questionable - hip).  Cardinals who should be in your starting lineup include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin (Questionable - back), Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.

Dallas at Pittsburgh - Finally, another game between two motivated teams!  Dallas QB Tony Romo appears to be back close to full strength, and the Cowboys looked impressive in victories the last two weeks over the 49ers and Seahawks.  Still, with the strength of the Steelers’ Defense I don’t expect this game to be much of a contest, and the only Cowboy I’d recommend starting this week is TE Jason Witten.  Steelers worth starting include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, and the Defense.

Washington at Baltimore - While the Ravens’ Defense is one of the strongest in football, don’t overlook the Redskins’ Defense, which is no slouch itself.  Accordingly, there isn’t much to like in this game from a fantasy standpoint.  Start Redskins’ TE Chris Cooley and the Defense.  Start Ravens’ TE Todd Heap and the Defense.  That’s it.  The Nationals and Orioles might play a higher-scoring game than these two teams.

Tampa Bay at Carolina - Like the Redskins’ Defense, the Buccaneers’ Defense doesn’t get enough credit.  Like the Dallas-Pittsburgh matchup, I expect this to be a rather one-sided game, but with the visiting team dominating in this one.  I’d start Buccaneers’ QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard, & Michael Clayton, K Matt Bryant, and the Defense.  The only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith (yes, you read that correctly - RB DeAngelo Williams will break your heart this week if you start him against the Bucs’ Defense).

Especially since this is the first week of the playoffs for many of you, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to share some great publicity Fantasy Football Sherpa received this morning in “The Fifth Down“, the NY Times’ NFL blog.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa