Archive for the ‘fantasy football strategy’ Category

Put Away Those Handcuffs! (Thu 8/26/10)

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

For many of the people who started playing fantasy football more than a couple of years ago the mantra “always handcuff your star running back” is a sacred drafting strategy.  Handcuffing (i.e. - drafting your star running back’s backup), the theory goes, guarantees that you’ll lock in the production from a given NFL team’s running game, even if your star running back is injured for a significant number of games or lost for the season. 

This line of thinking is somewhat like the act of buying a put option on a stock you own in order to recoup most of the value of your investment in case the stock’s price does a nosedive.  I say “somewhat” because unlike a put option, there’s no guarantee you’ll recoup any of the value of your fantasy football investment through the use of handcuffs.  This could happen for one of several reasons: (1) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may suffer a significant injury prior to the star running back’s being injured, (2) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may lose his spot on the depth chart due to worse-than-expected performance on his part, better-than-expected performance by another running back, or a coach’s inexplicable decision (think Mike Shanahan’s Reign of Terror in Denver), etc, or (3) an injured star running back’s team may change its offensive philosophy after his loss (i.e. - passing more, running less).

Besides the uncertainties associated with the handcuffing strategy, it’s also a bad idea for two other reasons.   The first is the associated opportunity cost (i.e.- the value that’s lost by foregoing other possibilities) that comes with passing on the chance to draft an additional backup at other positions, namely quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end.  Quick - what do Chad Henne, Alex Smith, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, Sidney Rice, Mohammed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Brett Celek, and Vernon Davis all have in common?  That’s right - in 2009 they all went undrafted in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, and even in the minority of leagues in which they were drafted, they delivered significantly more fantasy value than you would expect from players taken in the late rounds of a draft. 

Quick - how many “star running backs” (I’ll define that term to mean running backs who were expected to gain more than 2/3 of their team’s rushing yards) missed “significant” time in 2009 (which I’ll define to mean more than 3 games) due to an injury (which does not include foreseeable ineffectiveness and/or ill-advised Tweeting) and were replaced by the expected handcuff?  That’s right - just two:  Jerome Harrison, who replaced Jamal Lewis in Cleveland, and Ricky Williams, who replaced Ronnie Brown in Miami.  By my count there were 22 “star running backs” available to be drafted in 2009, so that’s less than a 10% chance that your handcuff investment paid off last year (warning:  as they say in the investment biz, past performance is no guarantee of future returns).  Meanwhile, you gave up the potential fantasy production you would have received if you’d gotten lucky and speculated on one of the undrafted players listed above.

“Okay,” you say, “but there’s no guarantee that even an extremely knowledgable football fan like me would have had the foresight to pick one of the 14 players you listed above - tear down your straw man!”  Fair enough, which brings me to my final reason for opposing the handcuffing strategy: the trend among NFL teams towards the dreaded Running Back By Committee (RBBC).  Of course, many fantasy football team owners have come to dread the RBBC approach because the NFL teams that use this strategy shrink the supply of “star running backs”.  While that’s certainly the case, the positive side to RBBCs is that they increase the number of available running backs who are better alternatives than the handcuffs to star running backs. 

Case in point - in 2009 by my count 10 of the 32 teams headed into the season with what I would describe as an RBBC approach.  In 2010 that number is up to 13.  Yes, that’s three fewer star running backs available to be drafted, but that’s also three more running backs whose expected payoff is better than that of a handcuff.  Drafting someone who’s currently not the lead back in an RBBC situation still offers significant upside (the secondary back could move ahead of the lead back if the lead back is injured or the secondary back outperforms the lead back), while offering a higher expected return than a clear second-stringer who would be drafted as a handcuff.  The greater the number of fantasy teams or required starting running backs in your league, the more sense it makes to take secondary backs in an RBBC rather than a handcuff.

So put away those handcuffs today, and improve your chances of drafting a winning team in 2010! 

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

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2010 Kicker Rankings (Wed 8/18/10)

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

People generally have one of two mindsets when it comes to drafting Kickers for their fantasy football team: (1) take one of the “top Kickers” several rounds before the end of the draft, or (2) wait until the last round or two of your draft to take a Kicker and take “the best Kicker available” (or “any Kicker who’s available and still has a pulse”).  Count me in the second group.  Kickers undoubtedly differ in their innate skill levels, but the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team presents him with far outweighs the importance of the Kicker’s accuracy on 50+ yard field goals in determining his fantasy value.  And predicting the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team is likely to give him is, to put it kindly, nearly impossible.  The opportunity cost of taking a Kicker before the last round far outweighs the potential benefit (at least in this Sherpa’s mind).

So, if predicting Kickers’ fantasy values is a futile exercise, but you still need to pick one (or even two) for your team, what’s the best way to go about it?  I suggest that you rank Kickers in the same order that you should rank teams’ offenses, by total yards (rushing + passing).  There’s certainly a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of yards a team’s offense gains and the number of points it scores, and there’s also a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of points a team scores and the number of points its Kicker scores, but I firmly believe that trying to come up with a better system for ranking Kickers is a huge waste of time.

That said, here’s my ranking of Kickers for the upcoming season (which foreshadows my ranking of team offenses for the upcoming season):

  1. Garrett Hartley (NO)
  2. Mason Crosby (GB)
  3. David Buehler (Dal)
  4. Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
  5. Kris Brown Neil Rackers (Hou)
  6. Ryan Longwell (Min)
  7. Adam Vinatieri (Ind)
  8. Shayne Graham Billy Cundiff (Bal)
  9. Nate Kaeding (SD)
  10. David Akers (Phi)
  11. Matt Bryant (Atl)
  12. Lawrence Tynes (NYG)
  13. John Kasay (Car)
  14. Mike Nugent (Cin)
  15. Nick Folk (NYJ)
  16. Josh Scobee (Jac)
  17. Jay Feely (Ari)
  18. Jeff Reed (Pit)
  19. Dan Carpenter (Mia)
  20. Rob Bironas (Ten)
  21. Robbie Gould (Chi)
  22. Graham Gano (Was)
  23. Jason Hanson (Det)
  24. Ryan Succop (KC)
  25. Joe Nedney (SF)
  26. Matt Prater (Den)
  27. Olindo Mare (Sea)
  28. Sebastian Janikowski (Oak)
  29. Rian Lindell (Buf)
  30. Connor Barth (TB)
  31. Phil Dawson (Cle)
  32. Josh Brown (StL)

Agree or disagree?  Hit me with your best shot - fire away.

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Sherpa alert - 4th & Inches blog talk radio show (Wed 8/18/10)

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Hi everyone!

I’ll be co-hosting our weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/a7tE70.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.  Tonight we’ll be previewing players on teams in the NFC and AFC North divisions.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow).  We’ll also be hosting a fantasy football league for our show’s listeners - check out our show for the details on how you can match wits with Jana and the Sherpa! 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Sherpa alert - 4th & Inches blog talk radio show (Wed 8/11/10)

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

Hi everyone!

I’ll be co-hosting the weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time (that will be our regular time going forward!).  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/9BtP4f.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

You say po-tay-to, and I say po-tah-to (Sun 8/8/10)

Sunday, August 8th, 2010

In case you haven’t had the pleasure yet of listening to “4th and Inches”, the Blog Talk Radio show that my co-host Jana and I recently started, the two of us disagree on many fantasy football issues (player values, strategy, etc).  We thought it would be fun to shine some light on some of those areas of disagreement, so starting today, that’s just what we’re going to do.  Every few days we’ll be posting a joint blog entry in which we debate a fantasy football topic.  Most of the topics will be strategy-related, but we may occasionally throw in a post on specific players, teams, etc.

If you have any specific topics you’d like the two of us to discuss, please feel free to respond with your suggestion.  Otherwise, sit back, enjoy the show, and let the fireworks begin!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Sherpa alert - 4th & Inches blog talk radio show (Wed 8/4/10)

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

Hi everyone!

I’ll be co-hosting our new weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 6-7pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/dlcO9W.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Sherpa alert - Blog Talk Radio show (Wed 7/28/10)

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

Hi everyone!

Just wanted to let you know that the new weekly fantasy football show I’ll be co-hosting will air tonight for the first time on Blog Talk Radio from 6-7pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/bK7Btu.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow), or by using the Blog Talk Radio website’s chat room. 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  The show will also be available as a free download from the iTunes store, so you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know.

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Sherpa alert - RotoCommunity Blog Talk Radio interview (Mon 4/12/10)

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Thanks to Pat Mayo of RotoCommunity for having me on as a guest for his Blog Talk Radio show last Saturday! http://bit.ly/bURtNM

The first 45 minutes or so we talked about fantasy baseball, but for the next 10 minutes we discussed some of the recent NFL trades and their impact on the upcoming fantasy football season.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Sherpa alert - SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com (Fri 11/27/09)

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that my “sleeper pick” for fantasy football Week 12 has been included in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entry in the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  This entry is a regular feature on Thursdays throughout the football season!

Have a great weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Thursday Morning Quarterback - Week 12 Recommendations (Thu 11/26/09)

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Once again Thanksgiving is upon us.  Two things come to mind when I think of this special holiday:  football and John Madden talking about turducken.  There used to be just two turkey day games to keep track of - one in Detroit, and one in Dallas.  However, believing that you can never have too much of a good thing, the NFL added a third game in 2006.  Many households aren’t able to watch the NFL Network, where the third game is telecast, but given the quality of the announcers in the past, that may actually be a good thing.  Here are my recommendations for Week 12:

Green Bay at Detroit - The Packers and the Lions have participated in many memorable Thanksgiving Day games, but with the current disparity in talent levels between the two teams, this game doesn’t figure to join that list.  Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford (Doubtful-shoulder, knee) won’t win many games this season, but he won the admiration of his teammates and many people who aren’t Lions fans with his gutsy performance at the end of last week’s victory over the Browns.  Unfortunately, the left shoulder injury he suffered on the next-to-last play of the game will probably keep him on the sidelines for this game.  Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (Probable-neck), TE Jermichael Finley, WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.  The only Lions worth starting are TE Brandon Pettigrew and (if he’s able to play) WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-hand, knee).  RB Kevin Smith (Probable-hip) can be started in deeper leagues, but don’t start the Lions’ quarterback, regardless of whether it’s stafford or Daunte Culpepper.

Oakland at Dallas - Oakland’s internal squabbles this season have been well-documented, but not to be outdone, the Cowboys also head into this Thanksgiving showdown with a sideshow of their own.  You can rest assured that CBS will have a “Campo Cam” set up this week just in case there’s a rematch.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting this week, although RBs Michael Bush & Justin Fargas can be started if you’re in a deep league.  QB Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders’ wide receivers shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup.  Cowboys to start, in what figures to be a cakewalk for the home team, include QB Tony Romo (Probable-back), RB Marion Barber (Probable-thumb), TE Jason Witten (Questionable-foot), WRs Miles Austin & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.  Add RBs Tashard Choice & Felix Jones and WR Patrick Crayton to the list if you’re in a deep league.  If Witten is unable to play, add TE Martellus Bennett to the list.  Basically, anyone in a Cowboys uniform who plays a skill position should be in your lineup this week to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

New York Giants at Denver - Will the real Brandon Marshall please stand up?  During training camp he was suspended for insubordination.  Now he’s being hailed as a fiery team leader for getting in teammate Knowshon Moreno’s face last week during a blowout loss to the Chargers after the rookie fumbled a ball on the Chargers’ one-yard-line.  Hopefully, Broncos’ Head Coach Josh McDaniels has learned to keep his pregame thoughts about his opponents to himself.  Both teams have been in a tailspin lately, but the Giants were able to pull out of theirs, however briefly, last week.  Giants worth starting this week are TE Kevin Boss, WR Steve Smith, and the Defense.  QB Eli Manning (Probable-foot), RB Brandon Jacobs (Probable-knee), and WRs Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham can be started in deep leagues.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Out-ankle, foot), who’s been hurt all season, will finally miss a game.  RB Knowshon Moreno is the only Bronco who should definitely be started this week.  If you’re in a deep league, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal and the Broncos’ Defense can also be started.  The Broncos’ quarterback, whether it’s Kyle Orton (Probable-ankle) or Chris Simms, and RB Correll Buckhalter should not be in your lineup.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - Fortunately for the Steelers, it looks like they won’t have to rely on third-string QB Dennis Dixon for this week’s game with their division rivals.  If you haven’t heard Dixon’s name in awhile, here’s a quick refresher course.  Backup QB Charlie Batch broke his wrist and is unavailable, but starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (Probable-concussion) is apparently going to play and should be in fantasy lineups if he does.  Other Steelers to start are TE Heath Miller and WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes.  Add WR Mike Wallace to the list if you’re in a deep league.  Do not start Dixon on the off chance he starts.  Ditto for RBs Rashard Mendenhall & Willie Parker, who will find it tough going against the Ravens’ run defense.  The only Ravens I’d start are TE Todd Heap (Questionable-Chest) and WR Derrick Mason.  If you’re in a deep league, add QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Mark Clayton to the list.  If RB Willis McGahee is on your bench, keep him there.

Jacksonville at San Francisco - It’s hard to believe it’s already been a decade since WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce teamed up with QB Kurt Warner as part of The Greatest Show on Turf.  Remarkably, all three are still in the league, and although the two pass-catchers are now in supporting roles, they’ll be reunited when their teams face off this weekend.  Jaguars to start include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Questionable-knee), TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Mike Sims-Walker.  WRs Holt & Mike Thomas can also be started in deep leagues.  49ers to start include QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WR Michael Crabtree, & K Joe Nedney.  Keep WRs Bruce (Questionable-ankle) & Josh Morgan out of your lineup. 

Kansas City at San Diego - Newly-signed Chargers’ OT Jon Runyan is a man who apparently believes strongly in advance planning.  He’s already announced plans to retire at the end of this season so that he can run for Congress next year in New Jersey.  There’s been a lot of talk lately about the long-term impact of concussions on football players, particularly linemen.  Runyan suffered a concussion himself in 2007; hopefully the aftereffects of that injury won’t interfere in any way with his campaign for his next job.  The only Chief worth starting this week is RB Jamaal Charles, although QB Matt Cassel and WRs Chris Chambers & Mark Bradley can be started in deeper leagues.  Chargers to start include QB Philip Rivers, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (back out of the Sherpa doghouse) & Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense.  Add WR Malcom Floyd to the list if you’re in a deep league.

Indianapolis at Houston - If you think that NFL kickers have an easy job, consider the plight of Texans’ K Kris Brown.  Three weeks ago Kris missed a potential game-tying field goal at the end of the Texans’ loss to the Colts, and last week he missed another potential game-tying field goal at the end of the Texans’ loss to the Titans.  In a scheduling quirk the Texans play the Colts again for the second time in three games - can “Kris Miss” pull off the hat trick?  For his sake let’s hope not.  Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai (Probable-knee), TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and K Matt Stover.  Add RB Donald Brown and WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie to the list if you play in a deep league.  The only must-start Texans are QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, but RB Steve Slaton (Questionable-neck) and WR Kevin Walter can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave WR Jacoby Jones (Probable-calf) on the bench.

Washington at Philadelphia - It’s obvious that not every NFL player can start every game, but Redskins’ RB Rock Cartwright may be on the verge of setting a record this weekend when he starts against the Eagles - it will be his first start in six seasons.  Coincidentally, his last start was also against the Eagles (Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb), so the Birds may need to blow the dust off some old game films (or videos).  How did Cartwright do in that game?  Glad you asked.  Just remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future success (or lack thereof).  The only Redskin worth starting this week is TE Fred Davis, although QB Jason Campbell, WR Santana Moss, and the Defense can be started in deep leagues.  The part of you that roots for the underdog wants to see Cartwright succeed, but don’t bet your fantasy team’s fortunes on it - leave him out of your lineup.  RB Ladell Betts (knee) is out for the season after his injury last week.  TE Chris Cooley (ankle) and RB Clinton Portis (concussion) will also miss this contest.  The Eagles to start are RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, and the Defense, but feel free to start QB Donovan McNabb and WRs DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, & Jason Avant in deeper leagues.  RB Brian Westbrook (Out-concussion) will miss at least another week.

Carolina at New York Jets - Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan, who earlier this season was badmouthing everyone from the Patriots to Channing Crowder, seemed a little hypocritical this week when he accused the Patriots of “disrespect” because they threw a deep pass late in their blowout victory over the Jets last week.  That shouldn’t be a problem this week: since the Panthers have no passing attack to speak of, in the unlikely event they’re blowing out the Jets late in the game, they’ll continue to do what they do best - run.  Panthers to start include RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Probable-Achilles’) and WR Steve Smith.  Those in deep leagues can also start the Panthers’ Defense.  Do not start QB Jake Delhomme (note to self:  copy previous sentence and paste in next week’s recommendations).  Jets to start include RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, and the Defense.  RB Shonn Greene can be started in deep leagues, but stay away from QB Mark Sanchez and WRs Braylon Edwards & Jerricho Cotchery.

Chicago at Minnesota - Here in Sherpaville we like to look for dissension among the football fan masses and use it as a leading indicator of developing stories.  Our crack research team has discovered that there’s no JakeCutlerSucks.com website yet, but there is a “Jake Cutler Sucks” discussion forum (where, ironically, no inappropriate comments are tolerated).  Bears’ QB Jake Cutler will definitely need to avoid his trademark red-zone interceptions this week if his team is to have a chance of beating the Minnesota FavresVikings.  The only Bears to start this week are Cutler (surprised?) and TE Garrett Olsen.  RB Matt Forte and WR Devin Hester can also be started in deep leagues, but leave WRs Earl Bennett & Johnny Knox on your bench.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson (Probable-ankle), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian (Probable-hamstring), Sidney Rice, & Percy Harvin (Probable-hip), K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  RB Chester Taylor can be started in deep leagues.

Seattle at St. Louis - From our Useless Statistics department comes this numerical nugget:  last week marked the first time all season that the 3-7 Seahawks didn’t win when QB Matt Hasselbeck threw for more yards (231) than the opposing quarterback (213).  Of course, the opposing quarterback last week was Brett Favre, he was out of the game before the third quarter ended, and the Vikings won 35-9.  So much for statistics.  Seahawks to start in this clash of NFC West bottom-dwellers include Hasselbeck, RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, K Olindo Mare, and the Defense.  Add WR Deion Branch to the list if you’re in a deep league and desperate for a Flex starter.  Avoid RB Julius Jones (Questionable-chest) even if he plays.  As is the case many weeks the only Ram who should be started is RB Stephen Jackson (Probable-back).  Add TE Randy McMichael to the list in deeper leagues.  Avoid fill-in QB Kyle Boller and WRs Donnie Avery & Brandon Gibson.  QB Marc Bulger (Out-groin/head/knee) will miss the first of what will most likely be several games.  Bulger and Boller may differ by two letters, but the Rams’ results are likely to be the same with either of them at the helm.

Arizona at Tennessee - Titans’ owner Bud Adams keeps apologizing for flipping Bills’ fans the bird, and his team keeps winning (although they had a little help last Monday night from Texans’ kicker Kris Brown).  It’s not obvious which streak will end first, but my bet would be on the latter.  Cardinals to start in this contest are QB Kurt Warner (Probable-concussion), RBs Tim Hightower & Chris Wells, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Bolden, K Neil Rackers, and the Defense.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Probable-knee) to the list in deeper leagues, and add QB Matt Leinart to the list if Warner’s concussion prevents him from playing.  The only Titan I’d start is RB Chris Johnson, but RB LenDale White can also be started in deep leagues.  Leave QB Vince Young and all Titan receivers out of your lineup.

Cleveland at Cincinnati - It’s been almost 20 years since former Bengals’ Head Coach Sam Wyche took this intense rivalry and kicked it up a notch.  This week it was Browns’ Head Coach Eric Mangini’s turn to get himself in trouble, although his wrath was aimed at the Detroit Lions rather than the Bengals.  In spite of last week’s offensive explosion against the Lions, there are no Browns worth starting this week.  That includes QB Brady Quinn, RB Jamal Lewis, and WRs Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi, & Chansi Stuckey (Probable-calf).  Bengals to start include QB Carson Palmer, RB Bernard Scott, WR Chad Ochocinco, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  Add WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable-chest) & Andre Caldwell to the list in deep leagues.  Leave RBs Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) & Larry Johnson (Questionable-judgment) out of your lineup.

Miami at Buffalo - For all the haters out there, admit it - Bills’ WR Terrell Owens still has something left in the tank.  Discussion involving Buffalo football have recently focused on who will be the next head coach to get the pleasure of coaching T.O.  Bruce Cowher has publicly taken himself out of the running, but Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, and Eric ManginiMarty Schottenheimer are all names that have been bandied about.  In the meantime the Bills will focus on containing the Dolphins’ explosive running game.  RB Ricky Williams (Probable-chest) is Miami’s only must-start this week, but add unproven backup RB Lex Hilliard to the list in deep leagues.  Don’t bother this week with QB Chad Henne or any of his receivers.  Owens and fellow WR Lee Evans are the only Bills who should be started this week, but add RBs Marshawn Lynch (Probable-shoulder) and Fred Jackson to the list in deep leagues.  It’s fun to root for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but you still shouldn’t have him in your lineup.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - I’m not suggesting that Buccaneers’ rookie Head Coach Raheem Morris is a control freak, but already this season he’s fired his Offensive Coordinator, changed starting quarterbacks twice, and now taken over as Defensive Coordinator.  If I were Bucs’ owner Malcolm Glazer, I’d be locking my office door when I left for the night.  The Buccaneers to start this week are RB Cadillac Williams and TE Kellen Winslow.  Add QB Josh Freeman and WRs Maurice Stovall & Sammie Stroughter to the list in deeper leagues.  I’d advise against starting WR Antonio Bryant.  Falcons to start include QB Matt Ryan, RB Jason Snelling, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White (Probable-knee), and K Jason Elam.  Add WR Michael Jenkins and the Defense to the list in deeper leagues.  Leave RBs Michael Turner (Questionable-ankle) & Jerious Norwood (Questionable-hip) on your bench.

New England at New Orleans - Fantasy owners who spent an early draft pick this year on Saints’ RB Pierre Thomas are hoping that going forward PT will get more PT, and Mike Bell will get less.  Of course, as fantasy “experts” are so fond of saying, Saints’ Head Coach Sean Payton doesn’t give a —- about your fantasy team.  Neither does Patriots’ Head Coach Bill Belichick, who may activate RB Sammy Morris (Questionable-knee) this week just to make his backfield more aggravatinginteresting for those who have RB Laurence Maroney on their fantasy squads.  Patriots to start in this Monday night showdown include QB Tom Brady, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, & K Stephen Gostkowski.  Add TE Ben Watson to the list in a deep league.  If Morris is able to play, add him to the list.  If not, add Maroney to the list.  Saints to start include QB Drew Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Mike Bell, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney.  Add WRs Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson to the list in deep leagues, and add RB Reggie Bush (Questionable-knee) to the list if he plays.  Leave WR Lance Moore (ankle) out of your lineup even if he returns this week.

Good luck to your teams this weekend, and Happy Thanksgiving

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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