With fantasy football playoffs in full swing, there’s no margin for error. Lose and your season comes to an abrupt end, leaving you to press your nose against the window of the fantasy football playoffs store for another week or two, wishing you were inside amid the warmth instead of left out in the cold. Matchup analysis becomes even more critical during than playoff weeks than it is during the regular season, so let’s have at it.
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 15’s Sunday & Monday contests:
Seattle at St. Louis - In your hunt to garner the points necessary for a playoff week victory, don’t overlook potential contributors from bad teams (such as these two). Each team has several players who may help push you over the top this week. Seahawks worth starting include QB Seneca Wallace, RB Maurice Morris, TE John Carlson, WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare. Rams worth starting are QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery.
San Francisco at Miami - San Francisco’s Offense figures to be able to pass the ball against the Dolphins. The Dolphins figure to be able to do whatever they want to on Offense against the 49ers. San Francisco QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson are all worth starting. Star RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle) is also worth starting if he’s healthy enough to play. Miami players who should be started include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.
Buffalo at NY Jets - These two teams have a lot more in common besides their division and home state. First the Bills, then the Jets, looked like they might be a dominant team this season. Then, the wheels started to come off for both teams. It’s hard to see a team like the Jets that’s wrung up losses the last two weeks to the Broncos and 49ers (and more importantly, has looked terrible doing so) making the playoffs. However, the Jets still have a chance to pull out of their tailspin and make the playoffs, while the Bills are already “playing for pride”. Bills worth starting include QB J.P. Losman, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, and WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed. The Jets have even more startworthy options - the list includes QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder), and K Jay Feely.
Denver at Carolina - Broncos RB Tatum Bell comes with a lot of baggage, including some he allegedly stole from former Lions’ teammate Cedric Benson. However, in what seems like a league full of players receiving second chances, Bell now finds himself the Broncos’ starting RB again with little competition for the role (Selvin Young is listed as Probable with a groin injury, so although he may receive a number of carries, it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as Bell). If your other RBs have bad matchups this week, Bell is definitely startworthy against the Panthers’ run Defense. Other Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater. Panthers worth pouncing on and putting in your starting lineup include QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay.
Green Bay at Jacksonville - For all the debate prior to the season re: whether the Packers should turn over the reins to QB Aaron Rodgers or bring back Brett Favre for one more season, Rodgers has been the far more effective of the two from a fantasy perspective (if not from a won-loss perspective). Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be included in fantasy lineups this week. Jaguars who should be started include QB David Garrard, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Reggie Williams, and K Josh Scobee.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore - The over/under points total for this game shouldn’t be much above 2 - the two teams’ Defenses are that dominant, and their Offenses are that mediocre. Accordingly, the only players who should be started along with the two teams’ Defenses are TE Heath Miller for Pittsburgh and TE Todd Heap for Baltimore. I’m not sure what the opposite of a barn-burner is, but whatever it is, that’s what you should expect this game to be.
San Diego at Kansas City - This game, on the other hand, could be a barn-burner. Remember how dominant the Chargers’ Defense was supposed to be according to all the preseason hype? Hasn’t exactly worked out that way, has it? Just another case study for why you should always wait until the last round or two to pick your Defense (picking a Kicker in the other round). Offensively, the Chargers are still a potentially explosive team, and QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should all be started. Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.
Detroit at Indianapolis - At the risk of having the Lions and the Colts (or the Saints or the Packers) make me look foolish, we’re on the verge of history here - the Lions should become the first team to go through a 16-game NFL schedule without a single victory. With Daunte Culpeper hurt and no clear replacement (Drew Henson, anyone?), none of the Lions, not even the ultratalented Calvin Johnson (Questionable - hand) should be in your lineup this weekend. The Colts on the other hand offer an embarrassment of riches this week. QB Peyton Manning, RB Domenic Rhodes, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense all belong in starting lineups this weekend. Add RB Joseph Addai (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.
Tennessee at Houston - A great matchup between Tennessee’s strong Defense and Houston’s powerful Offense. Titans worth starting include QB Kerry Collins, RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brad Jones, and K Rob Bironas. In spite of their powerful Offense, the only Titans I’d be comfortable starting this week are TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - I’m not sure which is harder to fathom - Atlanta’s well-rounded Offense or their total lack of Defense. Tampa Bay figures to be able to exploit the latter while having some success dealing with the former. Bucs worth starting this week include resurgent RB Warrick Dunn, TE Alex Smith, WRs Antonio Bryant & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant. Atlanta figures to have more success moving the ball on the ground than through the air - Falcons to start include RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WR Roddy White.
Washington at Cincinnati - I’ve found myself wondering recently who would win if the Lions and the Bengals were to play each other. Fortunately, we won’t have to find out this season. This week it’s the Redskins’ turn to exploit the Bengals’ disastrous combination of injuries and lack of team chemistry. Redskins to start this week include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense. Leave all Bengals on the bench - this is yet another NETJH weekend for them (Not Even T.J. Houshmandzadeh).
Minnesota at Arizona - If the over/under for total points in the Steelers-Ravens game should be only slightly north of 2, then the over/under for total points in this game should be only slightly south of 70. Vikes’ QB Tarvaris Jackson is the only reason I think the total points might not exceed that figure. Still, Jackson is worth starting if your other QBs have tough matchups this week, are injured, or are named Ryan Fitzpatrick (in which case you’re probably not in your league’s playoffs to begin with). Other Vikings who should be started include RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell. Cardinals worth starting include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower (on the assumption that he’ll be a passing target out of the backfield), and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin. Add WR Steve Breaston (Questionable - ribs) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.
New England at Oakland -Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel is dealing with the passing of his father this week, and it’s unclear whether he’ll play Sunday. Assuming he does, Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting. If Cassel is replaced at QB by Kevin O’Connell, then strike Welker and Moss from the list in addition to Cassel. Raiders worth starting include RB Justin Fargas, RB Darren McFadden, and TE Heath Miller.
NY Giants at Dallas - For all the offensive firepower that will be on display in this game, it’s important to remember that the two Defenses are no slouches, suggesting that you pass on most players associated with this game. Giants worth starting include RB Derrick Ward and TE Kevin Boss. Cowboys worth starting are QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), and WR Terrell Owens.
Cleveland at Philadelphia - Maybe it’s something in the water in Ohio. Maybe it’s just that both the Browns and Bengals are overmatched this week. In either case, there are no Browns worth starting this week, just as there are no Bengals worth starting this week. Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - ankle, knee), TE L.J. Smith (Probable - knee), WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Defense.
With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa