The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to share some great publicity Fantasy Football Sherpa received this morning in “The Fifth Down“, the NY Times’ NFL blog.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

The annual Turkey Day Tripleheader is upon us, and unfortunately, two of the three matches appear to be mismatches (at least on paper).  The most intriguing game of the day is the evening contest in Philadelphia between the Arizona Cardinals and the Eagles.  The outcome of this game hinges on the physical well-being of Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook and the mental well-being of Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb, who was unceremoniously (and inexplicably) benched during Sunday’s loss at Baltimore.  Sure, McNabb has played poorly lately, and his explanations of how it takes him awhile to warm up and get into the flow of a game sound lame.  Still, to throw an inexperienced QB such as Kevin Kolb into the fray in a game your team needs to win to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt seemed like a desperation move by Eagles’ head coach Andy Reid.

How will McNabb respond now that he’s been named the starter again?  Many claim that McNabb’s psyche is fragile, that he can’t take the heat of playing in front of the often-hostile home crowd, etc.  I don’t buy any of that.  Even though McNabb had a “horrible” game in the overtime tie with the Bengals (compounded by his post-game admission that he didn’t realize a regular season NFL game could end in a tie), he still managed to pass for over 300 yards.  Last weekend he was up against the Ravens’ Defense, one of the top units in football.  Yes, the Giants made the Ravens look like a college team the previous weekend, but they were playing at full strength.  With an injured RB Brian Westbrook, the Eagles obviously aren’t.  Putting a new QB into the lineup doesn’t cure what currently ails the Eagles - until Westbrook is healthy again, the Eagles’ Offense will continue to struggle no matter who’s taking the snaps.

With that in mind here are the fantasy-relevant players in the three Thursday games:

Tennessee at Detroit - While I don’t begrudge the Lions their tradition of hosting a Thanksgiving Day game, part of me wishes this were the game on the NFL Network rather than the Arizona-Philly matchup.  Still, there are some interesting story lines here.  Detroit’s Offense is capable of putting up points; unfortunately, their Defense is even more capable of giving them up, which has kept them winless to this point.  How will Tennessee react now that they’ve been knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten?  Will LenDale White pay attention long enough to run over the Lions’ awful Defense?  Titans who should be in starting lineups include QB Kerry Collins, RBs White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense.  The only Lions worth starting are RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - shoulder), if he’s able to play, and WR Calvin Johnson.

Seattle at Dallas - With QB Tony Romo back at the helm the Cowboys are beginning to show signs of why many people (including The Sherpa) picked them to win the Super Bowl this season.  With all of the turmoil they’ve been through this season, it’s hard to believe the Cowboys are 7-4 and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.  A win in this game probably allows the Cowboys to get into the playoffs by splitting their last four games (which still won’t be an easy feat with a schedule of Pittsburgh, the NY Giants, Baltimore, and Philadelphia).  Seattle’s season has been ruined by injuries, especially those to QB Matt Hasselbeck and his receiving corps.  The only Seahawks worth starting this week are RB Julius Jones and TE John Carlson.  Cowboys who should be started this week include Romo (Probable - finger), RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ribs), WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.

Arizona at Philadelphia - In spite of their bad outing against the Ravens last weekend, the Eagles’ Defense has been among the top in the league over the course of the season.  Unfortunately, the Offense has sputtered with RB Brian Westbrook at less than full health, the Defense has been spending more time on the field, and the results are predictable.  That trend will likely continue this week, as Westbrook probably won’t be at full strength once again after receiving 14 carries on Sunday against the Ravens, then having a short week to recover.  Cardinals to start this week include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, and WRs Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, TE L.J. Smith, and WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis.  If I had healthier options, I would advise against starting Westbrook this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Sherpa

Most fantasy football leagues have just one or two weeks left in their regular season.  At this point your team falls into one of three categories:  (1) those that have already clinched playoff berths, (2) those that are still in contention for playoff berths, and (3) those that must relish the opportunity to play spoiler the rest of the season.  No matter which group your team falls into, there’s still plenty of motivation to continue to scour your league’s free agent pool for late-season pickups.

Week 12 was relatively kind to fantasy team owners from an injury perspective - Dolphins’ WR Greg Camarillo and Browns’ QB Brady Quinn are out with season-ending injuries, but chances are you weren’t relying too heavily on either of them (especially Quinn).  The Redskins also cut former league MVP RB Shaun Alexander yesterday, but if you were relying on him to lead you to the fantasy promised land this season, then this blog probably won’t help you much.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT) (i.e. - the rest of the season), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners this week (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again in subsequent weeks.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team this week (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), JaMarcus Russell (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Derek Anderson (SPEC)

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), T.J. Duckett (SPEC), Kenneth Darby (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Davonne Bess (LT), Brandon Jones (ST), Justin Gage (ST), Michael Jenkins (ST), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Ike Hilliard (SPEC), Jabar Gaffney (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC).

Tight Ends

David Martin (LT), Billy Miller (SPEC), Heath Miller (SPEC).

Kickers

Ryan Longwell (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Nick Folk (ST), Phil Dawson (SPEC), Neil Rackers (SPEC), Shaun Suisham (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (ST), Kansas City (ST), Denver (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Many fantasy football experts will advise you to “start your studs” every week, regardless of the matchup they have in a given week.  That makes absolutely no sense, and I urge you to ignore that adage in setting your weekly lineups.  Matchups DO matter - they’re much more important than a player’s name recognition.  Note that I’m not suggesting you drop Peyton Manning this week to pick up Shaun Hill.  What I am suggesting is that before deciding on your starting lineup each week, you should go over your players’ matchups at each position, then pick the player(s) with the greatest likelihood of doing well in the coming week, taking into account the opponent, the player’s health, and the likelihood the player will see significant playing time.

Here’s a quick story to illustrate my point.  Two years ago I was advising a friend who made it to his league’s championship game.  His starting QB was Matt Hasselbeck, who had a terrible matchup that week against the San Diego Chargers’ Defense (if memory serves).  After scouring his league’s waiver wire (I realize that not all leagues allow you to do this during your league’s playoff weeks), we determined the best available free agent QB was the 49ers’ Alex Smith, who had a more favorable matchup (I believe it was against the Rams or Cardinals).  When my friend decided to start Alex Smith instead of Matt Hasselbeck in his league’s championship game, his leaguemates were convinced that either (1) he was trying to lose, or (2) he was an idiot.

Sure enough, Smith had a bad game - I believe he scored all of 5 points.  However, Hasselbeck had a terrible game, registering negative points.  If my friend had started Hasselbeck, he would have lost his league’s championship game by several points; because he started Smith instead, he won the game (and the ~$2,500 that went with it) by less than one point.

Of course, one anecdote does not prove anything, and there’s no guarantee such a strategy will work every time you use it.  However, if you use it consistently, you will give yourself the best chance to win each week.  I’ve seen this strategy work in recent weeks with Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, and Marshawn Lynch, among others.  This week there are a number of name quarterbacks with bad matchups, including Peyton Manning (@ Pittsburgh), Eli Manning (@ Philadelphia), and Donovan McNabb (vs NY Giants).  I would start Chad Pennington (vs Seattle) or Matt Ryan (vs New Orleans) over any of these three this week in order to give my fantasy team the best chance to win.

While it’s a great idea to use this strategy in Week 10, it’s absolutely imperative that you use it during your league’s playoff weeks.  How many people do you know who rode Tom Brady’s phenomenal performance to their league’s regular season title last year but lost in an early playoff round when he had a subpar game against the NY Jets?  Don’t let something similar happen to you this year!  Your leaguemates will not remember, much less care, what your team’s record was during the regular season.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 10’s Sunday & Monday games:

St Louis at NY Jets - Rams’ RB Steven Jackson is once again listed as Questionable with a thigh injury - leave him out of your starting lineup this week unless you’re going to have access to your lineup just before gametime Sunday.  Even if he plays, I wouldn’t start him against the Jets’ stout run Defense.  Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown all should be started this week.  The Jets also have injury issues - WRs Lavernues Coles (thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (shoulder) are once again listed as Questionable for this week.  Although it appears Jets’ coach Eric Mangini is borrowing a page from the Bill Bellichick playbook (for several years the latter listed Tom Brady on the injury report each week with a bad shoulder) and that Coles & Cotchery will both play again this week, I’d recommend checking your rosters for healthier options.  QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense should all be started this week.  RB Leon Washington is once again a good bye week replacement.

Jacksonville at Detroit - The big question concerning the Lions this week (besides whether they’ll actually win a game this season) - who will start at QB this week?  Incumbent Dan Orlovsky is listed as Questionable with a thumb injury, Drew Stanton has never started a game, and veteran Daunte Culpepper was just signed on Tuesday.  My guess is Culpepper, but the truth of the matter is that if any of the three are in your starting lineup this week, you’re in bad shape.  For the Jaguars QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Matt Jones (assuming he’s not suspended), K Josh Scobee, and the Defense are all worth starting this week.  WR Calvin Johnson is the only must-start Lion, although RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Shaun McDonald & Mike Furrey can be used as bye week replacements if you’re desperate.

Tennessee at Chicago - If you like defensive struggles, this game is for you!  If the two teams combine for more than 35 points, I’ll be surprised.  Tennessee’s Offense, already burdened by an anemic passing game, will struggle against a tough Bears’ run Defense.  Regardless of whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman starts at QB, the Bears figure to have a rough time running and passing against the Titans’ Defense.  Start the two Defenses - the only offensive player worth starting on either side is Bears’ TE Greg Olsen, although you can also use Titans’ TE Bo Scaife if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.  Hopefully, your fantasy team’s success this week doesn’t depend heavily on offensive players from either team.

Baltimore at Houston - Fueled by contributions from two rookies, QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice, the Ravens finally appear to have a semblance of an Offense.  Rice is listed as Questionable with a chest injury, but he’s expected to start, and he’s worth starting in your fantasy lineup too if you’re lucky enough to own him.  WR Derrick Mason and the Ravens’ Defense should also be started, while Flacco, RB Le’Ron McClain, TE Todd Heap, WR Mark Clayton, and K Matt Stover are adequate bye week replacements.  Due to last week’s injury to QB Matt Schaub the Texans will once again be forced to rely on QB Sage Rosenfels, who is starting to remind me of injured Lions’ QB Jon Kitna (i.e. - decent fantasy stats, but you don’t want him starting for a team you’re rooting for).  TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson are the only Texans worth starting this week.

New Orleans at Atlanta - Defense may be an afterthought in this game.  Saints’ QB Drew Brees and WR Marques Colston definitely belong in starting lineups this week, and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia) does too if he’s finally healthy enough to play.  WRs Lance Moore & Devery Henderson are also good bye week replacement options.  For the Falcons RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam are all worth starting, while QB Matt Ryan, RB Jerious Norwood, and WR Michael Jenkins can all be used as bye week replacements.

Green Bay at Minnesota - The outcome of this game hinges on whether Green Bay will be able to run on Minnesota’s stout run Defense and whether Minnesota will be able to throw against Green Bay’s pass Defense.  I think the latter is more likely to happen than the former, which should lead to a Vikings’ victory.  Assuming that Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (Questionable - shoulder) is able to play, he should be in starting lineups this week, along with WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.  TE Donald Lee is an adequate bye week replacement.  For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and WR Bernard Berrian should all be started.

Seattle at Miami - I’m still trying to figure out how Seattle was able to manhandle San Francisco in Week 8.  I believe this is the first instance all year when I’m unable to recommend anyone from a team’s roster for a fantasy league starting lineup.  Quite the opposite for the Dolphins - QB Chad Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, K Dan Carpenter, and the Defense are all worth starting this week.  Just for extra measure - TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are also decent bye week replacement options.  It doesn’t get any clearer than this from a fantasy perspective . . .

Buffalo at New England - For the second week in a row I’d recommend leaving Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch out of your starting lineup. QB Trent Edwards and WR Lee Evans are the only Bills worth starting this week, although TE Robert Royal can also be used as a bye week replacement if you’re desperate.  On the Patriots’ side of the ball I still don’t trust QB Matt Cassel as a fantasy starter, not even if you’re looking at him as a bye week replacement.  WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker are the only Patriots I’d definitely start.  RBs Kevin Faulk & Benjarvus Green-Ellis are both low-end bye week replacements.

Carolina at Oakland - Although not quite the mismatch on paper that the Seattle-Miami game appears to be, this contest ranks a close second.  For Carolina QB Jake Delhomme, RB DeAngelo Williams, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be started, and TE Jeff King is a low-end bye week replacement.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting this week.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh - In keeping with the opening section Colts’ QB Peyton Manning should not be in your starting lineup this week.  The Colts don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Steelers, which should lead to lots of passing attempts by Manning, but I don’t believe the results will be pretty.  When the Defense knows what’s coming, especially when that Defense has a strong pass rush, it gives them a huge advantage.  Of course, Manning will still complete ~20 passes to someone, which makes TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne (if he’s healthy enough to play) worth starting, and makes WRs Anthony Gonzalez & Marvin Harrison low-end bye week replacements.  Things are even bleaker on the Pittsburgh side of the ball - QB Ben Roethlisberger (Questionable - shoulder) should not be started, even if he’s healthy enough to play.  RB Willie Parker (Questionable - shoulder) and TE Heath Miller (Questionable - ankle) would both be worth starting if they were healthy enough to play.  However, unless you’ll have access to your team’s lineup shortly before gametime, don’t take the risk.  Both Defenses are worth starting in this game.

Kansas City at San Diego  - Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is showing signs of improvement, but he’s still no more than a low-end bye week replacement.  As usual, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are the only Chiefs worth starting.  However, against a suspect Chargers’ Defense RB Jamaal Chrles and K Connor Barth are both adequate bye week replacements.  For the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding are all worth starting.  With WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) still hobbled, WR Vincent Jackson is a high-end bye week replacement.

NY Giants at Philadelphia - This game spotlights several exceptions to the “always start your studs” rule I discussed above.  Giants’ QB Eli Manning and RB Brandon Jacobs, along with Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook, are too risky to start this week against the strong Defenses they’ll be going against.  The only way I’d start any of the four is if I didn’t have another QB or RB with a better matchup this week.  For those of you who say, “Wait a minute - I drafted (Player X) in the (Yth) round - I have to start him!”, think back to the idea of a sunk cost from that economics course you took (Z) years ago - that’s a convoluted way of saying “It doesn’t matter!”  Your goal each week is to start the lineup that gives you the best chance of winning, and matchups like this should be avoided at all costs.  That said, the underachieving Giants’ WR Plaxico Burress should be started this week, and TE Kevin Boss and WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith are decent bye week replacements.  For the Eagles TE L.J. Smith and WR DeSean Jackson are worth starting, and WR Kevin Curtis is an above-average bye week replacement.  Both Defenses are also worth starting.

San Francisco at Arizona - I freely admit that I can’t get my head around the idea of Arizona being a playoff team this season (especially recalling their ugly loss against the Jets in Week 4), but that’s exactly what’s going to happen, barring a total collapse in a division full of teams that will have top 10 draft picks next April.  San Francisco is one of those teams, and accordingly, RB Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week.  QB Shaun Hill and TE Vernon Davis can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate.  The Cardinals’ Offense under QB Kurt Warner is beginning to resemble the “Greatest Show on Turf” track meets that Warner used to direct as quarterback of the Rams nearly a decade ago.  Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald, K Neil Rackers, and even the Cardinals’ Defense are all worth starting given this matchup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

During the course of a historical U.S. presidential election, President-elect Barack Obama has undoubtedly kindled a new sense of hope and optimism among many who haven’t had much to cheer about lately (at least politically).  It’s highly unlikely that he will be able to live up to all of the lofty expectations that many have for him, but his presidency holds the promise of an exciting journey.

Coincidentally, this is also the week that Cleveland Browns coach Romeo Crennel has chosen to elevate QB Brady Quinn (a John McCain supporter) to a starting role.  While it’s silly (if not downright inappropriate) to compare Quinn’s upcoming challenge to Obama’s, he too has the burden of lofty expectations placed upon him by his supporters (and employers).  The Browns are obviously not going to contend for the Super Bowl this season, so in some sense a midseason promotion may actually be better for Quinn than if he had been annointed the starter over deposed QB Derek Anderson in training camp.

Should fantasy football team owners rush out to add Quinn in hopes that he will be the next big thing among NFL quarterbacks?  Recent history cautions against this.  Even QBs who were highly touted coming out of college and eventually went on to win a Super Bowl (e.g. - Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger) almost inevitably struggle at first.  One point in Quinn’s favor - it seems that QBs who watch from the sidelines for at least a year before being thrown into the fray (e.g. - Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers) are often more successfully initially than those who don’t have that luxury  - both Mannings, Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers come to mind.

In summary, if you play in a Keeper league, Quinn is likely not available; on the off chance that he is, and you have the roster space, he’s definitely worth a speculative pickup.  However, if he’s not available, or you don’t play in a Keeper league, do what the Detroit Lions always do - pass.

Since Week 10 marks the start of the oh-so-popular weekly Thursday night games, I will offer a Wednesday Morning QB analysis of tomorrow night’s game - the regular analysis of the weekend’s game will appear, as it usually does, on Friday.

Denver at Cleveland

Neither team has been particularly effective so far this season either running the ball on offense or stopping the run on defense.  Something’s gotta give, and my guess is that both teams will make running the ball a priority in this game - particularly the Browns, who will be looking to take as much pressure of Quinn as possible.  To further confuse matters, Denver has thrown the ball well this season, and Cleveland’s Defense has given up slightly fewer than average passing yards per game.  However, a closer look reveals that teams don’t rack up quite as much passing yardage against the Browns because they’re too busy running the ball against them - you would too if you were a coach and the opposing defense were yielding 4.7 yards per carry (5th worst in the NFL).

Of course the fly in the ointment here is that it’s unclear which Denver running back will be the primary beneficiary of the Browns’ defensive largesse (so, what else is new?)  RB Ryan Torain (Probable, elbow) appears to be healthier than RB Selvin Young (Questionable, groin), but you don’t want to bet your team’s Week 10 fantasy success on either one of them - neither should be used unless you’re in dire need of a bye week replacement.  QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater are all worth starting.  Denver’s Defense is also worth using if you need a bye week replacement on the assumption that Quinn is likely to struggle in his initial start.  For the Browns RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Braylon Edwards should all be in starting lineups this week.

More to come on Friday!

The Sherpa

I’ll admit it - the Cowboys were my preseason pick to win Super Bowl XLIII.  However, St. Louis’ manhandling last week of backup QB Brad Johnson and the Cowboys demonstrated how most teams’ success depends heavily on the health and ability of their starting QB.  The Cowboys’ record is currently 4-3.  The only games on their remaining schedule that appear to be “gimmes” are home games against the 49ers and Seahawks.  Assuming that it will take 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC this year, the Cowboys would have to go 4-3 in 7 games against the following teams:  Buccaneers, Giants (twice), Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.

While I expect Brad Johnson to play better the next two weeks than he did last week against the Rams, given the injuries to starting QB Tony Romo and several injuries in the secondary, I think the best the Cowboys can hope for is a split versus the Buccaneers and Giants.  If the Cowboys should lose both of those games, their season is all but over, even if Romo comes back 100% healthy and plays like a Pro Bowl QB - I can’t see the Cowboys going 4-1 against the Giants, Redskins, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 8’s games:

Tampa Bay at Dallas - Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia played well last weekend against a Seattle Defense that spends way too much time on the field, and he figures to do the same this weekend against an undermanned Dallas Defense.  Start Garcia, along with RB Earnest Graham, TE Alex Smith, WR Antonio Bryant, and K Matt Bryant.  Stay away from RB Warrick Dunn, who is Questionable this week with a back injury.  For Dallas I believe QB Brad Johnson will play much better this week after having a full week of practice with the first-team Offense and without the shadow of Tony Romo looming over him on the sideline.  Then again, Tampa’s Defense is also much better than St. Louis’, so I would start Johnson only as a bye week replacement.  RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk should all be started.  I’d expect a fairly high scoring game (i.e. - something along the lines of 28-24), so I wouldn’t start either Defense this week.

Washington at Detroit - With both Halloween and Election Day coming up shortly, it will be interesting to see whether Redskins’ RB Clinton Portis shows up this week dressed as “Kid Bro Sweets” or “Prime Minister Ya Mon”.  Chances are that both of Portis’ alter-egos could rush for 100+ yards against a porous Lions’ Defense that can’t stop either the run or the pass.  Portis is listed as Questionable again for this week with a hip injury, but given that he was listed the same way with the same injury last week and still managed to rush for 175 yards against the Browns, he’s worth starting again this week.  Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Redskins’ Defense should also be started this week, and WR Antwaan Randle El is once again a legitimate bye week replacement.  Not much to like on the Lions’ side this week - WRs Calvin Johnson & Mike Furrey should be started, and RB Kevin Smith is a decent bye week replacement if you need one, but other than that, I’d stay far, far away.

Oakland at Baltimore - The A’s and the Orioles might play a higher scoring game than their football counterparts.  I suspect the Ravens will be able to run the ball on the Raiders, and that should result in a victory for the home team.  For Oakland TE Zach Miller is the only player worth starting, and even that might be a stretch.  For the Ravens RB Willis McGahee is the only player I’d start, although RB Le`Ron McClain and TE Todd Heap are adequate bye week replacements.  Feel free to start either Defense, but keep both Kickers out of your starting lineup.

Arizona at Carolina - Arizona’s Offense reminds me of the chicken and egg argument:  do they run so little because they pass so well, or do they pass so often because they run so poorly?  I suspect it’s the former, which suggests that RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower may receive more carries than usual this week against a Panthers’ Defense that is stronger against the pass than against the run.  Nevertheless, QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald should definitely be started this week.  James, Hightower, and WR Steve Breaston are good bye week replacements if you need them.  The Cardinals’ Defense doesn’t play particularly well against either the run or the pass, so Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, & K John Kasay are all good starts this week.  Neither Defense should be in your starting lineup.

St. Louis at New England - Things change very quickly in the NFL.  Two weeks ago the Rams were 0-4 and looking at another Top 5 draft pick in 2009.  Then, a funny thing happened (unless you’re a Redskins’ or Cowboys’ fan) - the Rams pulled themselves up off the floor (unlike Kimbo Slice) and defeated Washington and Dallas in successive weeks.  Now, at 2-4 and with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, the Rams are being mentioned as potential playoff contenders in the NFC West - they’re currently two games behind the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals, and two of their remaining games are against the Cardinals.  I expect the Patriots to win a fairly high-scoring game this week, but Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown should all be started.  RB Steven Jackson is currently listed as Questionable with a thigh injury, but if he’s able to play, add him to the start list.  For the Patriots WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss and K Stephen Gostkowski are must-starts.  If RB Sammy Morris’ knee allows him to play (he’s currently listed as Questionable), he should also be started.  If not, then RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a decent bye week replacement.  QB Matt Cassel and TE Ben Watson are also adequate bye week replacements.  Don’t start either Defense this week unless you’re forced to.

Buffalo at Miami - This game gets my vote for this week’s “upset special” - I believe the Dolphins will be able to defeat the Bills.  I would say “take it to the bank”, but given the recent financial crisis, you may be better off putting it underneath your mattress.  Bills’ QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell are all worth starting this week.  For the Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter are all good starts, while QB Chad Pennington and TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin are decent bye week replacements.

Atlanta at Philadelphia - Philadelphia plays host to both an NFL game and a World Series game in the same complex on Sunday - I’m not sure the City of Brotherly Love can handle that much excitement in one day.  I’d love to see FOX announcer Joe Buck cover the football game in the afternoon, then head down the road to cover the baseball game in the evening, but I’m sure that won’t happen.  Since Buck claims not to enjoy baseball that much, perhaps FOX should do us all a favor and find someone else to share the booth with Tim McCarver (Bill O’Reilly, perhaps?).  Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective for the Falcons as they go up against Philly’s tough Defense.  WR Roddy White is the only Falcon I’d start this week, although Matt Ryan is a low-end bye week replacement for the truly desperate.  Quite a different story for the Eagles - QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (yes, he’s back!), WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Eagles’ Defense should all be started.  TE L.J. Smith is an adequate bye week replacement.  WR Kevin Curtis is also back this week, but I’d leave him on your bench unless you’re feeling really lucky.

Kansas City at NY Jets - Kansas City has become the fantasy football equivalent of a wasteland, if not a Superfund site.  TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are still worth starting under the assumption that third-string Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen will have to complete at least 15 passes to somebody, but neither of these players will lead your fantasy team to victory this week.  For the Jets I’d avoid starting WR Laveranues Coles, who is listed as Probable in spite of having a thigh injury to go with the concussion he suffered last week against the Raiders.  If this game gets out of hand early, as I suspect it will, the Jets will likely give Coles the rest of the afternoon off, which would be great for him, but not so great for your fantasy team.  Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre (I wonder if former Jets’ QB Chad Pennington called the Raiders before their game last week with the Jets), RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jericho Cotchery, K Jay Feely, and the Jets’ Defense.  RB Leon Washington is also a good bye week replacement given the favorable matchup.

San Diego at New Orleans - If you think West Coast teams have a tough time playing well when they travel to the East Coast to play a game at 1pm Eastern Time, how much worse will things get for the Chargers when they travel an extra 3,000 miles/5 time zones east to play in the NFL’s annual game in London?  To be fair, the Saints will also be feeling the effects of playing in the U.K. (will the fans cheer loudest when the kickers take the field?), but throw in the possibility of a wet field (remember last year’s Giants’-Dolphins’ game?), and I don’t think this will be the offensive shootout many fantasy experts are predicting.  Still, there are a number of players on both teams worth starting.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should be started, and WR Malcom Floyd is a decent bye week replacement.  Stay away from WR Chris Chambers (Questionable - ankle) even if he plays.  For the Saints start QB Drew Brees, WRs Marques Colston (also back this week) & Lance Moore & Devery Henderson, and K Taylor Melhaff.  Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if his impending suspension doesn’t take effect this week.  Stay away from RB Reggie Bush (Out - knee) and TE Jeremy Shockey (Probable - hernia).

Cincinnati at Houston - Bengals’ fans are undoubtedly familiar with Joe the Plumber, but given Carson Palmer’s potentially career-threatening injury, they’re probably wishing Jake (the) Plummer were now quarterbacking their team rather than Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick.  While the Texans’ pass Defense may offer a bit more resistance than the Yale Bulldogs, Fitzpatrick is actually a decent bye week replacement if your options are limited.  Fitzpatrick is unlikely to spread the wealth around - WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco and K Shayne Graham are the only Bengals who should definitely be in starting lineups this week.  Like Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson is best left as a bye week replacement for those with limited options.  For the Texans RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should all be started this week.  QB Matt Schaub, RB Ahman Green, WR Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense can all be used as bye week replacements.

Cleveland at Jacksonville  - Browns’ coach Romeo Crennel has requested that his players refrain from discussing politics in the locker room, but given Cleveland’s performance so far this year, their fans may rather receive three straight hours of robo-calls than be forced to watch a Browns’ game.  This week figures to be no different.  WR Braylon Edwards is the only Browns’ player I’d start this week, although QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis are both low-end bye week replacements.  For the Jags QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, and the Defense can all be started with confidence.  Add WR Matt Jones to the list if he isn’t suspended prior to Sunday’s game.

Seattle at San Francisco - Not much to like about this game from a fantasy perspective.  TE John Carlson is the only Seahawks’ player worth starting, although RBs Julius Jones & Maurice Morris can be used as bye week replacements if you’re truly desperate.  The only 49ers who should definitely be started are QB J.T. O`Sullivan and RB Frank Gore, but TE Vernon Davis, WR Isaac Bruce, K Joe Nedney, and the Defense can also serve as adequate bye week replacements.  I’d stay away from WR Josh Morgan, who’s listed as Questionable with a groin injury.

NY Giants at Pittsburgh - While there are some undeniably talented players on both teams’ Offenses, this may be the only game all year where I can’t recommend starting any Offensive players from either team in good conscience - the two Defenses are that strong, and both are worth starting.  By the way, I had to laugh when I read how “polite” WR Santonio Holmes was to the police when they pulled over his SUV the other day and smelled pot in his vehicle.  Holmes supposedly handed over several cigars containing marijuana to the cops - I guess we should consider him a “roll” model?

Indianapolis at Tennessee - Each week it seems I make at least one recommendation that goes totally against fantasy football’s golden rule to “always start your studs”.  Last week I recommended benching Dolphins’ RB Ronnie Brown for his unfavorable matchup against the Ravens.  What did Brown do for you?  How about 13 carries for 27 yards and no touchdowns - deal or no deal?  I bring this up not to pat myself on the back (well, maybe a little bit), but mainly to stress the point - matchups matter.  This week’s case in point - Colts’ QB Peyton Manning.  Facing a strong Titans’ pass Defense and with no running game to speak of to fall back on, I wouldn’t start Manning this week if I had another QB on my roster with a more favorable matchup.  TE Dallas Clark and WR Reggie Wayne are the only Colts who should be in your starting lineup this week.  The Titans’ passing Offense will also be yardage-challenged, but the Colts’ poor rushing Defense suggests that RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson should both be started.  If you’re running low on bye week replacement options, consider Titans’ TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas, and the Titans’ Defense.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be on The Local Sports Edge show today.  The show airs on WVIN, 98.3 FM in Bath, NY.  I’ll be on with hosts Joel Oriend and Mickey Stone for approximately 15 minutes starting at 12:30pm.

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 7’s games:

Dallas at St. Louis - Will Tony Romo play or won’t he?  Unless you’re the Tony Romo owner in your league, it doesn’t really matter.  RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, and K Nick Folk should all be started.  If Romo starts, he should obviously be in your lineup unless you happen to have a second QB who’s healthy and has a favorable matchup.  Just don’t expect Romo to throw for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs.  If Brad Johnson gets the start at QB for the Cowboys, he’s an adequate bye week replacement facing a weak St. Louis Defense.  For the Rams RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt remain the only “must starts”.  QB Marc Bulger, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown are all good bye week replacements for what figures to be a high-scoring game.  Avoid both Defenses.

Baltimore at Miami - There’s not much to like for either team this week from a fantasy perspective.  TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason are the only Ravens I’d recommend starting this week, although QB Joe Flacco is a low-end bye week replacement.  It’s even worse for Miami:  TE Anthony Fasano is the only Dolphin I’d recommend starting.  It sounds like heresy to recommend benching RB Ronnie Brown this week after the season he’s had so far (how many of you had him on your Bench in Week 3 against New England?), but I’d recommend doing just that if you have another RB with a better matchup.  Both Defenses are worth starting.

San Francisco at NY Giants - RB Frank Gore is the only 49er who should be in your starting lineup this week, although TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson, and K Joe Nedney are all adequate bye week replacements. For New York QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Plaxico Burress, and the Defense are all worth starting, and WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith are decent bye week replacements.  Once again, I’d avoid the Giants’ Kicker this week, since I have no idea who it will be (again, I’d guess John Carney, but there’s no need for you to guess in setting your lineup - you have plenty of other options this week).

New Orleans at Carolina - Lots of question marks this week for the Saints.  QB Drew Brees and K Taylor Melhaff are the only definite fantasy starters this week for New Orleans.  RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR Marques Colston are all listed as questionable for this week - if any of these three play, they are worth starting.  If Bush doesn’t play, RB Deuce McAllister becomes an adequate bye week replacement.  If Shockey doesn’t play, TE Billy Miller becomes an adequate bye week replacement.  If Colston remains on the sideline, WRs David Patten, Lance Moore, and Devery Henderson are all low-end bye week replacement options.  Bottom line - unless you’ll be in a position to monitor the game-day decisions, stay away from this mess.  The picture is somewhat clearer for the Panthers:  QB Jake Delhomme, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay should all be started, while RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart should be in your lineup only if you are forced to start them.  TE Jeff King is a low-end bye week replacement.  Given the uncertainty re: the Saints’ Offense, I’d avoid both Defenses if possible.

Tennessee at Kansas City - Tennessee returns from a bye week to face one of the weakest teams in the league, especially against the rush.  RBs LenDale White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas, and the Titans’ Defense are all worth starting this week.  QB Kerry Collins is a decent bye week replacement, as is WR Brandon Jones, who figures to have a fair number of passes thrown his way with WRs Justin Gage and Justin McCareins both potentially sidelined.  With suspended RB Larry Johnson out this week, TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe are the only Chiefs worth starting.

Minnesota at Chicago - This is a difficult game to analyze from a fantasy perspective.  My first instinct was to stay away from Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson and Bears’ RB Matt Forte (see Rodney Brown, above), given the strong run Defenses they’ll be going up against this week.  However, after having thought about it some more, I believe both teams will be able to throw the ball just effectively enough to open up the running game for their star rushers.  Thus, I’d start Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, and K Ryan Longwell for the Vikings; QB Gus Frerotte and WR Bobby Wade are also good bye week replacements.  For the Bears, in addition to Forte I’d also start K Robbie Gould, while considering QB Kyle Orton and TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark as good bye week replacement options.  I’d stay away from the Bears’ WRs this week given injury concerns, although if he plays, WR Rashied Davis is an adequate bye week replacement.  Avoid both Defenses.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Avoid Steelers’ RB Willie Parker due to injury concerns, even if he is able to start against a weak Bengals’ Defense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Steelers’ Defense are all must-starts this week, and RB Mewelde Moore is a good bye week replacement if Parker is unable to play.  For the Bengals WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Johnson are the only players worth starting, although TE Reggie Kelly can also be used if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.

San Diego at Buffalo - Reports of the Chargers’ demise were premature, as they demonstrated last week against the Patriots.  Still, in a battle between two evenly matched teams, I think Buffalo will be able to throw more on the Chargers’ Defense than the Chargers will be able to on the Bills’ Defense, leading to a Bills’ victory.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, and K Nate Kaeding are all worth starting.  WR Vincent Jackson is a good bye week replacement, but stay away from WR Chris Chambers, whose health is still in question.  For the Bills QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell should all be started.  TE Robert Royal, WR Josh Reed, and the Bills’ Defense can also be started if you’re desperate for a bye week replacement.

Detroit at Houston - When is the last time a 1-4 team has been favored by 9 1/2 points?  One of the keys to fantasy football success is to avoid giving too much weight to individual plays/games.  Case in point:  the enduring image of Lions’ QB Dan Orlovsky from last week’s game against the Vikings is the play on which he ran out of his own team’s end zone and continued along the end line for 10+ steps without realizing he’d just given the Vikings a safety.  If that’s all that comes to mind when you hear Orlovsky’s name, there’s no chance you’d include him in your fantasy lineup any time soon, even if he throws for 300+ yards his next three games.  While that’s unlikely to happen, I maintain that going against a middling Texans’ Defense, Orlovsky is actually a decent bye week replacement this week.  WR Calvin Johnson is the Lions’ only “must start”, but RB Rudi Johnson, WRs Mike Furrey & Shaun McDonald, and K Jason Hanson are also decent bye week replacements.  For the Texans QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should all be started, while WR Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense are all serviceable bye week replacements.

Cleveland at Washington - Cleveland looked great last Monday night against the Giants, while the Redskins appeared to be sleepwalking through their loss Sunday to the Rams.  Does this mean that the Browns have turned the corner?  Does this mean the wheels are going to fall off the Redskins’ wagon?  The answer to both questions is an emphatic “no!”.  The Browns don’t figure to be able to run much on the Redskins, so QB Derek Anderson, TE Kellen Winslow (assuming he’s healthy enough to play), and WR Braylon Edwards should all be started.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis (assuming he’s healthy enough to play), TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, and K Shaun Suisham are all worth starting.  WR Antwaan Randle El and the Redskins’ Defense are also worthy bye week replacements.

NY Jets at Oakland  - The Jets figure to be able to both run and throw nearly at will against a Raiders’ Defense that spends far too much time on the field due to an inept Offense.  Accordingly, QB Brett Favre, WRs Jericho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles, and the Jets’ Defense are all worth starting.  RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, and K Jay Feely are all good bye week replacements.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider worth starting, although QB JaMarcus Russell can be used as a bye week replacement if you’re desperate.  Although the Raiders’ RBs have talent, the combination of a backfield by committee and the Jets’ strong run Defense make all of them unappealing options this week.  The Raiders’ WRs have struggled mightily all season; expect that to continue this week.

Indianapolis at Green Bay - This is a unique matchup:  two weak run Offenses going against two Defenses that can’t stop the run, and two strong passing attacks challenging two strong pass Defenses.  My guess is that the Packers will have more success running the ball than the Colts, which should lead to a Green Bay victory.  For Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri should all be started.  RB Dominic Rhodes is an adequate bye week replacement.  For Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be started.

Seattle at Tampa Bay - Seattle’s Offense was a mess with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm (due to injuries to his WRs) and a disaster last week with Charlie Frye calling signals.  This week is Seneca Wallace’s turn to show what he’s got - expect something closer to the disaster end of the spectrum.  TE John Carlson is the only Seahawk I’d consider starting this week, although RB Julius Jones and WR Bobby Engram can be used as bye week replacements if you’re really desperate.  Tampa Bay’s QB situation has been unstable too, although Brian Griese and Jeff Garcia have been better from a fantasy standpoint than their Seahawk counterparts.  RBs Earnest Graham & Warrick Dunn, TE Alex Smith, and the Buccaneers’ Defense are all worth starting this week.  QB Jeff Garcia, WRs Antonio Bryant (if he’s well enough to play) & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant can all be used as bye week replacements.

Denver at New England - This game hinges on how well Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel plays - if he’s able to do an adequate job, this could be an interesting, high-scoring game.  If not, you’ll probably be able turn off the TV early Monday night and catch up on some sleep.  I’m betting he’ll be able to move the Patriot’s Offense against the Broncos’ suspect Defense.  For Denver I’d start QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater.  Add TE Tony Scheffler to that list if he’s well enough to play.  In spite of his success last week against the Jaguars, I don’t like RB Michael Pittman as anything more than a bye week replacement.  Ditto for WR Eddie Royal, assuming he’s well enough to play.  If you disagree with my assessment of Cassel (i.e. - you think the Broncos will be able to contain him), then you may also want to start their Defense as a bye week replacement.  For the Patriots I’d start TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski.  I’d also be confident using QB Matt Cassel as a bye week replacement.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Week 4 is the first (scheduled) bye week - 6 teams will be off this week:  Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, and Seattle.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week:

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning, Jon Kitna, Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck

Running Backs

Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Julius Jones, Ronnie Brown, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Smith

Wide Receivers

Reggie Wayne, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson,  Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison, Amani Toomer

Tight Ends

Dallas Clark, Anthony Fasano, John Carlson, Ben Watson

Kickers

Stephen Gostkowski, Adam Vinatieri,  Jason Hanson, John Carney, Olindo Mare

Defenses

New England, NY Giants, Seattle, Indianapolis

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Gus Frerotte (LT), Brian Griese (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Damon Huard (SPEC), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Brady Quinn (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC)

Running Backs

Le’Ron McClain (LT), Correll Buckhalter (SPEC),  Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Robert Meacham (LT), Ike Hilliard (LT), Brandon Lloyd (LT), Antonio Bryant (LT), Josh Reed (LT), Michael Jenkins (LT), Kevin Walter (LT), Hank Baskett (ST), Devery Henderson (ST), Lance Moore (ST), Antonio Chatman (ST), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Roscoe Parrish (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Zach Miller (LT), Marcedes Lewis (LT), Justin Keller (LT), Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Bo Scaife (LT), Chris Baker (LT), Dustin Keller (LT), Jeff King (LT), Robert Royal (ST)

Kickers

David Akers (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), John Kasay (LT), Neil Rackers (ST), Joe Nedney (ST)

Defenses

Tenessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Philadelphia (LT)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 3’s games:

Kansas City at Atlanta - Hard to know what to make of this game - a below-average offense and a mediocre defense (KC) vs. a mediocre offense and below-average defense (Atlanta).  My guess is that all translates into a 24-21 or 24-17 game, meaning none of the players on either team are likely to lead your fantasy team to victory this weekend.  Can Chiefs’ QB of the week Tyler Thigpen throw well enough to keep the Atlanta offense honest and give RB Larry Johnson some room to run?  I doubt it.  TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Dwayne Bowe might have some value on the assumption that Thigpen’s got to complete some passes to someone, but hopefully you have better options at both positions this weekend.  On the Atlanta side I would start RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood on the assumption both will get at least 10-15 carries.  I wouldn’t start QB Matt Ryan either, but again, his top two WRs (Roddy White and Michael Jenkins) can be started under the assumption that Ryan’s got to complete some passes to someone.  I’d stay away from both Kickers and both Defenses.

Arizona at Washington - This game features two potentially explosive offenses, suggesting that each team possesses a number of useful fantasy options this week.  For the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner, RBs Edgerrin James & Tim Hightower, WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, TE Leonard Pope, and K Neil Rackers are all worth starting.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley, and K Shaun Suisham are all worth starting.  Leave both Defenses out of your lineups this week.

Miami at New England - I wouldn’t start anyone from Miami’s offense this weekend unless I had no other options.  I would not start Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel yet, even against Miami’s defense.  I’d also stay away from the Patriots’ running backs, since as many as four may share carries on Sunday.  However, TE Ben Watson, who appears set to make his first start of the season, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting Sunday. New England’s Defense is also worth starting.

Carolina at Minnesota - New Vikings’ QB Gus Frerotte may be a half step up from Tarvaris Jackson, but I would not start him this weekend.  His starting WRs, Bernard Berrian & Sidney Rice, are listed as Probable & Questionable, respectively, making Frerotte an even less appealing option.  With RB Adrian Peterson listed as Questionable, I’d also advise against starting him, unless you’re willing to settle for a line similar to LaDainian Tomlinson’s last week against the Broncos.  RB Chester Taylor and TE Visanthe Shiancoe are worth starting only in the deepest of leagues.  The Panthers’ offer a number of enticing options this weekend, starting with QB Jake Delhomme.  As with many other teams the running back situation is muddled, but both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are worth starting against the Vikings.  WR Steve Smith returns from his two-game suspension this week and should be starting on all fantasy teams immediately.  Fellow WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad are also worth starting.  I also like K John Kasay and the Panthers’ Defense.

Cincinnati at NY Giants - QB Carson Palmer’s ankle injury figures to limit his mobility this weekend, which suggests the Giants will spend most of the afternoon blitzing, especially since RB Chris Perry hasn’t shown much in the first two weeks - I’d avoid both of them.  However, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chad Ocho Cinco should be started if they’re on your roster - Cincinnati’s QB (whether it’s Palmer or backup Ryan Fitzpatrick) figures to throw a lot of passes this weekend.  I’d also avoid K Shayne Graham and the Bengals’ Defense.  Giants’ QB Eli Manning looked extremely poised in last week’s demolition of St. Louis, and while he may never put up the numbers that older brother Peyton does, he is definitely worth starting against the Bengals this week.  Like many teams the Giants also split carries among multiple running backs, but Brandon Jacobs is the only one worth starting.  WRs Plaxico Burress & Amani Toomer, K John Carney, and the Giants’ Defense are also worth starting this weekend.

Houston at Tennessee - Much has been made of Texans’ rookie RB Steve Slaton getting his first start this week, but given the rust factor (Houston and Baltimore didn’t play in Week 2 due to Hurricane Ike) and the Titans’ stout defense, I’d avoid starting him.  QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Texans’ Defense are all worth starting this weekend.  Although Kerry Collins may still be a step up from Vince Young passing-wise, I’d stay away from him this week given his immobility and the Texans’ pass rush.  With WR Justin Gage Questionable for this week, I’d avoid the Titans’ WR and start TE Alge Crumpler if you want to speculate on Collins’ favorite target.  RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson both figure to get at least 15 carries and be worth starting.  K Rob Bironas and the Titans’ Defense are also worth starting this weekend.

Tampa Bay at Chicago - If the Texans-Titans game isn’t the lowest scoring game of the week, then this game will probably be it.  Imagine what Bears’ backup QB Rex Grossman will be thinking when he watches his two backups from last season (current Bears’ starting QB Kyle Orton and Bucs’ starting QB Brian Griese) face off against each other.  I would recommend avoiding all offensive players on both teams, but if you find yourself in a bind at RB, Bucs’ RB Earnest Graham and Bears’ RB Matt Forte figure to get a lot of carries, if not a lot of yards.  Just make sure not to start Bucs’ WR Joey Galloway since he’s out this week with an injury.  Both Defenses are worth starting this week in anticipation of a baseball-like final score.

Oakland at Buffalo - Unlike most experts I believe that Oakland will be successful moving the ball against the Bills’ Defense.  Sure, RB Justin Fargas is Doubtful, and heralded rookie RB Darren McFadden is Probable, but that just leaves more carries for RB Michael Bush, who finally got to showcase his ability in last week’s victory over the Chiefs after McFadden went out with an injury.  I’d try to avoid starting either McFadden or Bush this week given McFadden’s uncertain status, but even if he’s able to start, I’d still rather have Bush in my fantasy lineup this weekend.  QB JaMarcus Russell doesn’t figure to put up big passing numbers - TE Zach Miller is the only Raiders’ receiver I’d recommend.  K Sebastian Janikowski is also worth starting this week.  For the Bills QB Trent Edwards continues to surprise and figures to have a good game Sunday, as does RB Marshawn Lynch - both are worth starting.  WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed are both worth starting, as is Bills’ K Rian Lindell.  I’d avoid both Defenses in anticipation of a fairly high-scoring game.

New Orleans at Denver - This figures to be a game where the losing team could well score 28 points or more.  Accordingly, leave both Defenses out of your starting lineup this week.  For the Saints QB Drew Brees, RBs Reggie Bush & Pierre Thomas, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs David Patton & Devery Henderson, and K Martin Gramatica are all worth starting.  For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater are all worth starting.  Stay away from the Denver RB situation unless you’re truly desperate - you have a better chance of predicting the stock market’s closing price for next Friday than you do of forecasting how this mess will play out.

Detroit at San Francisco - Another game in which you should pass on both defenses.  For the Lions QB Jon Kitna, RB Kevin Smith, WRs Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson, and K Jason Hanson should all be starting in fantasy leagues this week.  For the 49ers QB J.T. O’Sullivan’s “luck of the Irish” will probably run out in the near future, but he’s definitely worth starting this week in deeper leagues.  RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney are all start-worthy too.

St. Louis at Seattle  - The good news - one of these two teams will almost certainly win its first game of the week this year.  The bad news - this game features many of this season’s biggest disappointments season-to-date from a fantasy perspective, making it difficult to wholeheartedly recommend any of the underperforming stars on either side.  Still, Rams’ QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Brown can all be started against a Seahawks’ defense that has played poorly in its first two games.  For the Seahawks offense, QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, and K Olindo Mare can all be started - I’d stay away from all of the Seahawks WRs, given their apparent penchant for injury.  Avoid both Defenses in this game too.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - While unlikely to match the fireworks of last Monday night’s game between the Eagles and the Cowboys, this contest also has the potential for a lot of offensive fireworks.  Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, WRs Santonio Holmes & Hines Ward, and K Jeff Reed can all be started this weekend in fantasy lineups.  For the Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, WR DeSean Jackson, and K David Akers all are good starts this week - hopefully, Jackson will remember to cross the goal line with the ball this week!  I’d avoid starting either Defense if you have other options.

Cleveland at Baltimore - Another game that’s difficult to analyze.  I wouldn’t read too much into the Browns’ early season struggles at home - the Cowboys look like frontrunners for the Vince Lombardi trophy at this point in the season, and the game with the Steelers was marred by high winds.  Still, the Ravens’ defense is no slouch, and they’ve had an extra week of rest too following their unexpected bye week last weekend.  I’d avoid QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis this weekend, but I’d feel comfortable starting either TE Kellen Winslow or WR Braylon Edwards.  For the Ravens I’d avoid RB Willis McGahee (health concerns) and QB Joe Flacco (rookie concerns), but TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason are worth starting.  I’d stay away from both Kickers, but I’d be willing to start either Defense.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Another potentially high-scoring game.  Although both teams have played well below their potential in the first two weeks (especially on offense), I expect that to change this week.  Jaguars’ QB David Garrard, RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Matt Jones all figure to rack up big days against a Colts’ defense that will be without Bob Sanders.  K Josh Scobee is also a good start this week.  For the Colts expect Peyton Manning to have a big game now that he’ll have both Center Jeff Saturday and TE Dallas Clark back.  Manning, RB Joseph Addai, Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri are all worth starting this week.  I’d avoid both Defenses.

Dallas at Green Bay - Another potentially high- scoring game.  Dallas QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk are all members of the best offense in football and should all be starting if they’re on your fantasy roster.  Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers; WRs Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, & James Jones; and K Mason Crosby are all worth starting too.  I’d avoid the Packers’ RBs if at all possible due to uncertaintly re: Ryan Grant’s status - Brandon Jackson is a better bet this week, but again, I’d avoid both unless I had no other options.  Both Defenses should be avoided too.

NY Jets at San Diego - In spite of the Jets’ anemic offense the first two weeks of the season, I expect yet another high-scoring game here.  Jets’ QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Chris Baker, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and K Jay Feely are all worth starting against the Chargers’ defense, which obviously misses Shawne Merriman.  If WR Laveranues Coles is healthy enough to play, he’ll also warrant a start; if not, consider RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, and WR Chansi Stuckey as candidates to pick up the slack for Coles.  For the Chargers it’s impossible to say at this point whether RB LaDainian Tomlinson will play this weekend, and if he does, how effective he’ll be.  Even if he does play, his backup RB Darren Sproles is worth starting in deeper leagues this week.  QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding are also worth starting.  Avoid both Defenses this week.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa