Archive for the ‘mock draft’ Category

Week 3 free agent/waiver wire recommendations (9/17/08)

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

This week I’ll list recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll also give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Trent Edwards (LT), Kurt Warner (ST), J.T. O`Sullivan (ST),  Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Matt Leinart (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC)

Running Backs

Michael Bush (LT), Darren Sproles (ST),  Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), DeShaun Foster (SPEC), Jason Wright (SPEC), Brandon Jackson (SPEC), Pierre Thomas (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Derrick Ward (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

David Patten (LT), Kevin Walter (LT), Justin Gage (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), James Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Heath Miller (LT), John Carlson (LT), Zach Miller (LT), Marcedes Lewis (LT), Justin Keller (SPEC), Visanthe Shiancoe (SPEC)

Kickers

David Akers (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), John Carney (ST)

Defenses

Jacksonville (LT), Tenessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Philadelphia (LT), Carolina (LT), Washington (LT), NY Jets (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Friday Morning Quarterback - Week 2 Predictions (9/12/08)

Friday, September 12th, 2008

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 2’s games:

Chicago at Carolina - Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective - I expect a fairly low-scoring game.  With Bears’ RB Matt Forte’s ankle bothering him, I’d bench him if you have healthier options.  QB Kyle Orton will probably be forced to throw more than he did in Week 1, but I’d still stay away from both him and his WRs.  TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen should be the primary beneficiaries if Orton does throw more, but since they split time and catches, I’d stay away from both.  On the Panthers’ side, I expect all of their offensive players to struggle; I’d stay away from all of them.  Week 1 star Dante Rosario is questionable with a foot injury, so find another option for this week.  Both Kickers (Robbie Gould for the Bears; John Kasay for the Panthers) are decent options, as they may each get several field goal opportunities.

Tennessee at Cincinnati - A tough game to figure.  Ordinarily, you’d expect a backup QB, even one as experienced as Kerry Collins to struggle in his first start of the season; however, this is the Bengals’ defense we’re talking about here.  Still, RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson, along with TE Alge Crumpler figure to rack up decent fantasy stats in this game.  Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer will almost certainly look better than he did last week against the Ravens; he’s worth starting, as are his dynamic duo of WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco.  Both Kickers (Titans’ Rob Bironas and Bengals’ Shayne Graham) are worth starting this weekend, but I’d avoid both defenses.

Green Bay at Detroit - Both offenses figure to be productive on Sunday.  For the Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are all worth starting.  If RB Ryan Grant’s hamstring is healthy enough to allow him to play, he’s also worth starting.  For the Lions QB Jon Kitna, RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are all worth starting.  Both Kickers (Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and Detroit’s Jason Hanson) are also worth starting.  In anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - I believe that Bills’ QB Trent Edwards will put up good, but not great, fantasy numbers this year, and if you’re looking for a replacement for injured QBs Tom Brady or Vince Young, he’s definitely worth a free agent claim.  Still, this is probably not the weekend to start him.  Start Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch, but stay away from the Bills’ receivers.  Jacksonville’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries, which may limit the effectiveness of QB David Garrard and RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, but they’re still all worth starting.  TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Matt Jones should also produce decent fantasy numbers this weekend.  Jacksonville Kicker Josh Scobee and the Jaguars’ defense are also worth starting.

Oakland at Kansas City - Two weak offenses against two seemingly weaker defenses.  Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell, RBs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and WRs Ronald Curry and Javon Walker are worth starting.  Do not be fooled by WR Ashley Lelie’s TD reception last weekend - with Walker returning, his playing time figures to decrease significantly.  Chiefs’ Head Coach Herm Edwards has spoken this week about instituting a QB platoon with starter Brodie Croyle out, so steer clear of both Damon Huard and Tyler Thigpen (not that you had either of them on your roster anyway!).  Assuming that Huard gets the start this week, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WRs Dwayne Bowe and Devard Darling are all worth starting.  If you have roster space, Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles is also an intriguing pickup under the assumption that Johnson may not stay healthy for the entire year.  Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Sebastian Janikowski for the Raiders; Nick Novak for the Chiefs), but I’d avoid both defenses.

Indianapolis at Minnesota - Hard to believe that one of these supposed Super Bowl contenders will start the season 0-2.  Expect Colts’ QB Peyton Manning to shake off the rust this weekend and have a big game facing the Vikings’ secondary.  Assuming that Manning is able to throw effectively, RB Joseph Addai also figures to be in for a big game.  WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez are all worth starting, but I’d stay away from TE Dallas Clark this week due to injury concerns.  For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is the only start-worthy option this weekend.  The Colts’ defense and Kicker Adam Vinatieri are also good starts this weekend.

NY Giants at St. Louis - Reports of the Rams’ offensive demise have been greatly exaggerated.  Even without a legitimate second WR to throw to, I’d expect QB Marc Bulger to bounce back from his disastrous showing last weekend.  RB Steven Jackson, WR Tory Holt, and TE Randy McMichael are also worth starting.  For the Giants QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Plaxico Burress all figure to have big days against a weak Rams defense.  Once again, both Kickers are worth starting (Josh Brown for the Rams; John Carney for the Giants), but I’d avoid both defenses.

New Orleans at Washington - Another game that figures to be an offensive shootout.  Even with star WR Marques Colston out for the Saints, QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR David Patten should all be started this weekend.  Do not start Saints’ RB Deuce McAllister or WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem unless you are in a very deep league and don’t have other options.  For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, and WRs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are all worth starting.  Both Kickers are worth starting (Martin Gramatica for the Saints; Steve Suisham for the Redskins), but I’d avoid both defenses.

San Francisco at Seattle - Seattle has been decimated by injuries, which makes this game tough to analyze.  This is the week where we find out if Seahawks’ RB Julius Jones has anything left in his tank - I’d start him on the assumption that he does.  QB Matt Hasselbeck is worth starting, and since he’s got to complete passes to someone,TE John Carlson and WR Courtney Taylor are also worth starting in deeper leagues.  If any NFL team has a weaker pair of QBs than the 49ers’ J.T. O`Sullivan and Shaun Hill, I’m hard-pressed to name them (KC, perhaps?)  49ers’ RB Frank Gore is worth starting, and if you’re really desperate TE Vernon Davis and WR Bryant Johnson also figure to catch a few passes each.  Seattle’s Kicker (Olindo Mare) and defense are both worth starting too.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Will the real Falcon team please stand up?  Is it the team that looked impressive (at least on offense) last weekend against the defensively challenged Lions?  Or is it the team that most experts figured would be in for yet another losing season due to a Swiss cheese defense?  I still vote for the latter.  QB Matt Ryan is worth a speculative add if you have room on your roster, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to look as good this week facing the Buccaneers’ defense.  RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are worth starting, and if you’re in a deeper league WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are too.  With Brian Griese taking the reigns from Jeff Garcia at QB for Tampa Bay, I’d avoid all of the Bucs’ offensive players this week (even facing a Swiss cheese defense!), even RB Earnest Graham and WR Joey Galloway.  Expecting a low-scoring game I would avoid both Kickers but start either Defense.

Miami at Arizona - If you’re looking for a Tom Brady replacement in a deeper league, you could certainly do worse than Miami QB Chad Pennington or Arizona QB Kurt Warner.  I’d prefer Warner over Pennington simply because he has better receivers to throw to, but both are worth starting this weekend against suspect defenses.  The Dolphins’ RB situation continues to be muddled - I’d avoid starting either Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown this weekend unless I had no other options.  I suspect Brown will eventually prove to be the more effective of the pair, but that’s still no reason to start him this weekend.  Along with Pennington, WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano are worth starting this week.  I’m not a fan of Cardinals’ RB Edgerrin James in spite of his 100-yard game last weekend against the 49ers, but he’s worth starting against the Dolphins’ defense.  If you have room on your roster, rookie Arizona RB Tim Hightower is worth a speculative pickup.  WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both worth starting this week (as they are every week), as are Kicker Neil Rackers and the Cardinals’ defense.

San Diego at Denver - Another potentially high-scoring game.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and TE Antonio Gates should all be starting this weekend on your roster.  I’d avoid the inconsistent WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson unless you’re in a deeper league and don’t have other options.  For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, RB Selvin Young, and WR Brandon Marshall are all worth starting this weekend.  I’m not sold on WR Eddie Royal yet, but if you already own him, chances are you’ll start him this weekend to see whether he can have another big day with Marshall back to divert the Charger defense’s attention.  I’d stay away from both defenses, but Kickers Matt Prater for the Broncos and Nate Kaeding for the Chargers are both worth starting.

New England at NY Jets - Finally, a week without Tom Brady being listed on the Patriots’ injury report with a sore shoulder!  No one can say for certain how the Patriots’ offense will react after practicing with new starting QB Matt Cassel for a full week.  Unless you picked him up as a replacement for Tom Brady or Vince Young, I wouldn’t start him this week.  He may prove to be a viable fantasy option as the weeks go by, but probably not this week.  Given the uncertainty in the Patriots’ backfield, I’d avoid both RBs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris this week as well.  WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still worth starting, even with Cassel at quarterback, and TE David Thomas (who may start for Ben Watson) may also do well this weekend, given that he’s probably more familiar with Cassel than the other Patriots’ receivers.  On the Jets’ side I’m still not counting on Brett Favre putting up fantasy results worthy of a starter, and I’d avoid him this weekend unless you have no other options.  The only Jets’ offensive players I like this weekend are WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Chris Baker.  Expecting a low-scoring game, I’d stay away from both Kickers but start either defense.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Let me be (one of) the first to jump off the Browns’ bandwagon - at least for this week!  While not every team (check that, maybe no other team) is as talented as the Cowboys, the Steelers still figure to do well against a questionable Browns’ defense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should all be starting this weekend if they’re on your roster.  For Cleveland QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Braylon Edwards are all worth starting, but don’t expect any of them to lead your team to victory this week.  Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Jeff Reed for the Steelers; Phil Dawson for the Browns), as is the Steelers’ defense.

Philadelphia at Dallas - I expect a high-scoring game here too, so plenty of fantasy options on both sides.  For the Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, and WR DeSean Jackson are all worth starting.  For the Cowboys QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton are all worth starting this week.  Both Kickers are worth starting this week (David Akers for the Eagles; Nick Folk for the Cowboys), but in anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.

Baltimore at Houston - The magic carpet ride (if you can call it that) is probably over for Ravens’ rookie QB Joe Flacco after just one week - even if you picked him up this week as a free agent, he’s not worth starting against a defense that figures to put more pressure on him than the Bengals did.  RB Willis McGahee is a risky start this week due to ongoing injury concerns - RB Ray Rice is a good alternative, but RB Le`Ron McClain is not.  TE Todd Heap is still worth starting in spite of injury concerns, but I’d avoid WRs Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason this week if you have better alternatives.  For the Texans I’d avoid starting QB Matt Schaub and rookie RB Steve Slaton, but TE Owen Daniels and WRs Andre Johnson and Ken Walter should be started.  I’d avoid both Kickers, but both defenses are worth starting this week in anticipation of a low-scoring game.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Reacting without overreacting (9/10/08)

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

Most team owners’ fantasy football roster changes after Week 1 fall into one of two categories:  (1) moves necessitated by injuries, and (2) reactions to players’ disappointing performances.  If you owned Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Marques Colston, Maurice Morris, etc., you probably need to make a roster move this week.  However, if you own Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Peyton Manning, Braylon Edwards, etc., don’t let their disappointing performances in Week 1 tempt you to do something rash (i.e. - trading them for below-market value) or dumb (i.e. - dropping them).

If Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez goes 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on baseball’s Opening Day, their fantasy owners would be disappointed, if not upset, but would realize that it’s just one game out of 162.  However, with football teams having just 10% of the number of games their baseball brethern do, every game’s results are magnified - both for better or for worse.

On the other hand, don’t get too giddy if some of your players exceeded expectations during Week 1.  Does anyone really believe that Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario will be among the league leaders at their respective positions at the end of the season?  Me neither.  Put another way, if someone offers you Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson for Michael Turner this week, or Braylon Edwards for Matt Jones, or Peyton Manning for Donovan McNabb, quickly accept the deal before the other owner has a chance to change their mind!

Reversing the roles for a minute, if you are the owner of Matt Ryan, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, etc., see what other team owners in your league would be willing to give up to obtain these Week 1 wonders.  You may be surprised.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Week 2 free agent/waiver wire recommendations (9/10/08)

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

Since Wednesday is often the day that fantasy football leagues process their free agent/waiver wire claims, today I’ll focus on some potentially useful players who may be available in your league.  Many team owners are wondering where to turn after injuries to Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Maurice Morris, Marques Colston, Darren McFadden, and others - the Sherpa is here to help!

Quarterback

Amazingly, Jon Kitna and Kurt Warner are still available in a number of leagues.  I’d describe them as the “anti-Roethlisbergers” - they’re more useful to a fantasy team than they are to NFL teams (imagine if you were penalized even more for interceptions/fumbles in key situations in your fantasy league!)  If either happens to be available in your league this week, he’s definitely worth a pick-up (especially if you were a Tom Brady owner).  I doubt you’d find any other QBs available this week who are capable of throwing for 3,500+ yards and 30+ TDs!  If Kitna and Warner are already taken in your league, other widely-available options include Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, and JaMarcus Russell.  I’d take a chance on Matt Cassel only if the previous options were all unavailable.  I’d steer clear of Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Depending on the number of teams and bench spots your league uses, the pickings could be pretty slim here.  In the unlikely event Justin Fargas or Julius Jones are available in your league, they’re definitely worth a claim.  Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson is also likely unavailable in your league.  More likely options include Sammy Morris, Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Jackson, and Leon Washington.

Wide Receiver

Rookies Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson both had impressive debuts this past weekend.  With Brandon Marshall returning this week for Denver, I think it’s highly unlikely Royal will approach his Week 1 stats anytime soon again.  However, I do like Jackson’s potential to continue posting impressive stats throughout his rookie season.  Royal becomes more attractive than he would be otherwise in leagues that give individual players Kickoff Return yardage, but I still prefer Jackson.  With Marques Colston out for an estimated 4-6 weeks, see if any of the Saints’ WRs are available (David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, in that order).  Kevin Walter, Matt Jones, Devard Darling, and Courtney Taylor are some other potentially useful WRs who may be available in your league this week.

Tight Ends

I like Anthony Fasano, Chris Baker, and Marcedes Lewis more than I like Dante Rosario.

Kickers

Unless you had Mike Nugent on your team, you probably aren’t (and shouldn’t be) looking for a replacement based on just one game.  However, if you did have Nugent on your team (or don’t wish to heed my previous advice), Jason Hanson, Steve Suisham, John Carney, Matt Bryant, and Matt Stover would be my recommended options based on their teams’ matchups this week.

Defenses

As with the Kickers I wouldn’t be looking to make any changes here after one week (even if you own the Rams’ defense!).  If you like to switch Defenses from week to week based on matchups, some Defenses that may be available whose matchups I like this week include Arizona (vs Miami), Carolina (vs Chicago), Detroit (vs Green Bay), Houston (vs. Baltimore), Oakland (at Kansas City), and Kansas City (versus Oakland - yes, I don’t expect much offense in this game!).

Good luck with your claims!

The Sherpa

The Brady crunch (9/8/08)

Monday, September 8th, 2008

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

  1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
  2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
  3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa