The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Fantasy football draft season is in full swing, and many of you have drafts coming up Labor Day weekend.  One “trend” I’ve noticed this season is more and more fantasy football team owners using their first-round draft picks on QBs, with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and even Peyton Manning often being taken by owners wanting to lock in top-tier production from their quarterback spot.  Does it make sense to do this?  Does the time-honored adage “always take a RB in the first round” still hold?  Let’s take a closer look.

There are 2 commonly-used arguments to justify taking a QB in the first round:

1. “Taking a running back in the first round no longer makes sense - there are just too many Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations now, so there are a number of good running backs with the potential to outplay their draft position still left in the middle rounds.”
2. “The top quarterbacks score a lot more points under my league’s scoring system than the top running backs and wide receivers, so it makes sense to take a quarterback first.”

Let’s take a closer look at both these arguments.

In response to the first argument, it’s undoubtedly true that the trend in the NFL over the past few seasons has seen teams moving away from the single workhorse RB approach and going with the RBBC approach instead.  If we define the “single workhorse RB approach” to include all teams for which the lead rusher is projected to gain at least 65%-70% of his team’s rushing yards, then by my count there are 13 teams using the RBBC approach heading into the 2010 season, which is up from 10 teams heading into the 2009 season.

That said, the basic economic principle of supply and demand suggests that when the supply of a desirable commodity (in our case the workhorse running back) goes down, the corresponding demand for that desirable commodity should increase, not decrease.  Thus, it would appear that drafting QBs earlier in response to the decrease in supply of workhorse RBs is exactly the opposite of what should occur.

The second argument is a bit trickier to deal with.  First, let me bring up the idea of “position scarcity”.  Unfortunately, this term is overused and abused in fantasy circles.  To me position scarcity can be defined as the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position.

If you accept this definition of position scarcity, then if you make a list of players’ projected 2010 fantasy points in descending order by position (using your league’s particular scoring system, of course), you’ll almost certainly find that there’s a greater decrease in fantasy values between top-rated and mid-level RBs (or top-rated and mid-level WRs) than there is between top-rated and mid-level QBs.  This will be the case even though the increasing use of RBBCs has increased the fantasy values of mid-tier RBs relative to what they were just a year or two ago.

If that’s the case, the opportunity cost (i.e. - the value of the option you don’t choose when you make a decision) is greater for passing on a RB (or WR) in the first round of a draft than it is for passing on a QB.  In other words, even though QBs generally score more fantasy points than RBs and WRs under many fantasy scoring systems, your fantasy team will be better off overall at the end of your draft if you start out by taking a RB (or a WR) than if you grab one of the top names at QB.

A quick caveat - in order to make this analysis complete, we would need to look at not only supply/demand and position scarcity, but also the relative consistency in actual vs. expected fantasy values among the top options across the different positions.  That consistency, of course, will depend on the particulars of your league’s scoring system, but based on the analysis I’ve done, generally speaking the slightly greater consistency among top QBs vs. top RBs and top WRs is not enough to overcome the supply/demand and position scarcity issues.

So, unless your league has “highly unusual” roster requirements (e.g. - start 2 QBs and 1 RB) or point values (e.g. - 6 points for a passing TD, but only 3 points for a rushing or receiving TD), your fantasy team will still better off at the end of your draft if you take a top-tier RB (or WR) with your first round pick than it will be if you use that same pick on a top-tier QB. 

Wishing everyone a great holiday weekend and good luck in your upcoming drafts! 

The Sherpa

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

After a recent experts’ mock draft for a fantasy football magazine, all of the participants (including the Sherpa) were invited to describe their approach to a fantasy football draft.  Here’s the gist of my response (with some extra thoughts included, since I’m not subject to a word count here, just your patience/willingness to read further!):

I’ll generally take Running Backs (RBs) with my first two picks so that I can avoid Running Back by Committee (RBBC) situations.  With more and more teams relying on RBBC, that gives you even more incentive to grab as many RBs not involved in a timeshare as you possibly can early in your draft.  Next, I’ll usually grab the two best available Wide Receivers (WRs) and fill any FLEX spots or remaining RB and WR spots, then start looking at Quarterbacks (QBs).  However, depending on roster requirements, I’d still consider taking backups at RB and WR before selecting my first QB.

I’ll almost always pick my starting QB and all my backups at QB, RB,  and WR before taking my Tight End (TE), Defense (DEF), and Kicker (K).  Fantasy scoring is almost totally random for Ks, and only slightly less so for DEFs; those roster spots should generally be filled last.  Finally, when selecting reserves, I tend to favor unproven players with high ceilings over steady but unspectacular veterans (think Chris Henry (Bengals’ version) vs. Antwaan Randle El).

I’m a huge believer in position scarcity, the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated and mediocre options at each position.  QBs score the most fantasy points in many scoring formats, so some might be tempted to take a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning (or a Tom Brady in 2008) with an early pick.  However, given that the drop-offs are much steeper at RB and WR than at QB, unless you have a highly unusually scoring system it doesn’t make sense to take a QB until after you’ve filled all your starting RB and WR spots.  Don’t waste Bench spots on TEs, Ks, and DEFs - you can almost always find a serviceable alternative in the free agent pool when you need one due to an injury or a bye week.  You’re much better off using those Bench spots on RBs and WRs - you can never have too much depth at those two positions!

Hopefully, I’ll be able to stick to this philosophy during tonight’s experts’ draft at 8pm on Mock Draft Central - we’ll see what happens!

Of course, the most important part of preparing for any fantasy football draft is to make sure that the player rankings you’re using reflect all the unique characteristics of your league.  If the player rankings don’t reflect your league’s # teams, roster requirements, scoring categories, and point values exactly, then you’re potentially putting yourself at a huge disadvantage heading into your draft.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Just wanted all of you out in Sherpaville know that the Sherpa was featured in an article that appeared in today’s Harvard Crimson (the student newspaper).  The article focuses more on baseball than football, but Fantasy Football Sherpa is also mentioned in the article!

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Great news!  Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that our Fantasy Football Sherpa blog  has been chosen as a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s (FSTA) Best Blog award!  This award recognizes the website with the best combination of information and presentation in a blog.  The winner will be announced next month at the FSTA’s meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

We are doubly honored because our sister site’s Fantasy Baseball Sherpa blog has also been chosen as a finalist in the same category!  (note:  fortunately, unlike the Oscars, the FSTA has no rule against multiple nominations in the same category!)

Enjoy the rest of the holiday season, and best wishes for health and happiness in the new year!

The Sherpa

For those whose fantasy football league’s schedule includes Week 17, my condolences.  Not only do you have to deal with the usual pitfalls of unanticipated injuries and subpar performances, you also have to deal with a number of teams that will effectively be treating this week’s contest as a scrimmage or preseason game.  This will likely limit your roster options and potentially force you to make some unpalatable lineup decisions.

This week there are five playoff-bound teams that have absolutely nothing to play for and figure to give their starters at least a half, if not the entire game, off.  Those teams are the NY Giants, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Arizona.  Avoid starting any players from these teams this week unless you’re either feeling really desperate or really lucky.  Two of these teams, Tennessee and Indianapolis, actually face each other in what should be dubbed the Jim Sorgi Bowl in honor of the Colts’ backup QB, who, much like the Punxsutawney Phil (the Groundhog) or the Swallows of San Juan Capistrano, makes an annual appearance you can set your watch by.  Needless to say, avoid any players involved in that game like the plague.

On the other hand there are three games this week that are in essence playoff games:  Miami at NY Jets, Dallas at Philadelphia, and Denver at San Diego (The Ed Hochuli Atonement Bowl).  Any healthy player involved with these three games is worth starting this week.

Here are some more thoughts on games and players for Week 17’s contests (all of which take place on Sunday):

NY Giants at Minnesota - The Giants have nothing to play for and a bunch of injured players in need of time to heal; the Vikings can clinch a division title and the playoff berth that goes with it with a victory.  Contrarians will point to last season’s Week 17 matchup between the Giants and the Patriots (where the Giants had nothing to play for but still made the Patriots earn their perfect regular season record) as evidence the Giants may decide to go all out for four quarters in this game.  The circumstances are completely different this year.  Last year’s Giants team needed the dose of confidence heading into the playoffs that came from playing as well as they did against the Patriots; this year’s team doesn’t.  RB Derrick Ward needs 52 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for the season, which would give the Giants a pair of 1,000-yard rushers (with RB Brandon Jacobs being the other).  Still, unless 52 yards rushing and no scores represents an upgrade to your current starting lineup, I’d pass.  If you really are intent on starting a Giants’ RB this weekend against the Vikings’ Defense, go with RB Ahmad Bradshaw instead.  Avoid Jacobs, QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss (Doubtful - ankle, concussion), and WR Amani Toomer.  For the Vikings start QB Tarvaris Jackson, RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bobby Wade, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  Avoid WR Bernard Berrian (Questionable - ankle).

St. Louis at Atlanta - The Rams have been somewhat better on Offense the last few weeks (”better” being a relative term), and Atlanta can potentially capture the NFC’s #2 seed with a victory, so both teams figure to be playing hard for four quarters.  Rams worth starting include QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson (Probable - hamstring), WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  Falcons worth starting include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam.  Avoid WRs Michael Jenkins (Questionable - shoulder) & Harry Douglas (Questionable - toe, shoulder).

New England at Buffalo - Unless you are a Patriots-hater, you have to admit that the emergence of QB Matt Cassel is one of the best stories in the NFL this year.  For a guy who hadn’t started a game since high school to replace Tom Brady and throw for almost 4,000 yards is an amazing accomplishment, and Cassel figures to cash in during the off-season (Detroit?  Minnesota?  NY Jets?  Cincinnati?).  Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris, Lamont Jordan, & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes “Snow Angel” Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting this week.  Bills worth starting include QB Trent Edwards, RB Fred Jackson, TE Robert Royal, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell.  I’d stay away from RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable - shoulder) unless you’ll have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff.

Detroit at Green Bay - Detroit may be using the rallying cry “This is our Super Bowl”, but it’s impossible to see how the outcome this week will be any different than it has for the Lions’ first 15 games this season.  Although the season has been a disappointing one for the Packers, the last thing they want to do is go down in history as the team the Lions beat to stave off an “unvictorious” season.  The only Lion you’d want to consider starting is RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - ankle) - he figures to play in spite of his injury.  Packers worth starting are QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby, and the Defense.

Carolina at New Orleans - Both teams have something to play for - Carolina wraps up the NFC’s #2 seed with a victory, while New Orleans QB Drew Brees needs 402 passing yards to break Dan Marino’s 24-year-old single-season mark of 5,084.  Panthers worth starting include QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad (Probable - foot), and K John Kasay.  Saints worth starting include Brees, RB Deuce McAllister, TE Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley.  Leave TE Jeremy Shockey (Out - ankle) and RB Pierre Thomas (Questionable - wrist, back) out of your lineup.

Chicago at Houston - In order for the Bears to make the playoffs they need to win this game and hope the Giants are motivated enough to defeat the Vikings.  While the latter is highly unlikely to happen, the Bears also play an early game, so they figure to uphold their end of the bargain.  Start QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Garrett Olsen & Desmond Clark, WR Devin Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Texans worth starting are QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - There’s far too much uncertainty regarding this game to have any confidence starting anyone from either team.  Still, if you’re desperate, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis, WR Braylon Edwards, and the Defense all have the potential to do well playing against the Steelers’ second-stringers for most of the game.  Avoid starting any Steelers at all costs.

Kansas City at Cincinnati - If weather conditions permit, this could actually be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day.  Start Kansas City QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.  Bengals to start include QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Chris Henry, and K Shayne Graham.  I’d avoid WR Chad Ocho Cinco (Questionable - hamstring).

Tennessee at Indianapolis - Unless you are the kind of person who would still send money to Bernard Madoff to invest, the Sherpa advises you to steer clear of all players who have anything to do with this game (yes, even Jim Sorgi).  Enough said.

Oakland at Tampa Bay - Oakland is another team that’s been somewhat better in recent weeks, but the Raiders don’t figure to have enough of a passing game to win this contest.  Raiders to start include RB Justin Fargas (Probable - neck), and TE Zack Miller.  Add RB Darren McFadden (Questionable - ankle) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.  Bucs worth starting include QB Jeff Garcia (Probable - calf), RBs Warrick Dunn & Cadillac Williams, and WR Antonio Bryant.

Jacksonville at Baltimore - A disappointing season for the Jaguars figures to end on a sour note.  RB Maurice Jones-Drew and TE Marcedes Lewis are the only Jags worth considering for your starting lineup.  Ravens to start include RBs Le’Ron McClain & Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.

Miami at NY Jets  - The Jets’ history has been full of disappointments, but should the Jets lose this game to fall to 9-7 (after starting the season 8-3) and miss the playoffs, this team will likely be lumped together with the 1986 team that started the season 10-1, then lost its last 5 games and missed the playoffs.  Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington, who was unceremoniously dumped by the Jets last off-season in favor of QB Brett Favre, can help put the final nail in the coffin this week in a seemingly made-for-TV drama.  Dolphins to start include Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Jets to start include Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jerricho Cotchery (Probable - Shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Dallas at Philadelphia - Lots of subplots surround this game too, which also has playoff implications for both teams.  Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, and Wade Phillips, just to name a few of the characters involved.  Cowboys who should be in fantasy lineups this weekend include QB Romo (Probable - illness), RB Tashard Choice, TE Witten (Probable - ankle), and WR Owens.  I’d avoid RB Marion Barber (Questionable - toe).  Eagles to start include QB McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee, ankle), and WRs Kevin Curtis (Probable - calf) & DeSean Jackson.

Washington at San Francisco - No playoff berths riding on the outcome of this game, but still a number of worthwhile options from a fantasy perspective.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  The only 49er worth starting against the Redskins’ Defense is RB Frank Gore (Probable - ankle).

Seattle at Arizona - Tough to know what to make of this game - Arizona has already clinched a playoff berth, and in theory has nothing to play for.  However, they’ve looked so bad the last couple of weeks in losses to the Vikings and Patriots, that they may be motivated to play their starters longer than you might expect in an effort to regain some momentum heading into the playoffs.  Still, since the Cardinals will be hosting a playoff game next weekend, I would bet against their starters playing more than half the game, and as such, I would leave them all out of a fantasy lineup this week.  The Seahawks offer a number of options, especially if the Cardinals pack it in early - QB Seneca Wallace, RB Maurice Morris, TE John Carlson, WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram, K Olindo Mare, and the Defense are all worth starting.

Denver at San Diego - The NBC Sports execs may see this game as the ultimate conclusion to the regular season.  The winner is guaranteed the AFC West title and the playoff berth that goes with it; the loser will be watching the playoffs from home.  Momentum definitely favors the home team Chargers, and, if you believe in such things, karma also figures to be on their side (assuming Ed Hochuli is not assigned to referee this game).  It’s likely the winner will be facing a “one and done” playoff scenario, but there are a number of good fantasy options on both teams.  Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TEs Daniel Graham (Probable - ankle) & Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip) & Eddie Royal (Probable - thumb), and K Matt Prater.  Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, and K Nate Kaeding.

Enjoy the final weekend of the regular season, and enjoy the playoffs!  It’s been a blast, and we’ll do it again next year!

The Sherpa

For those whose fantasy football leagues let fate play a major part in deciding your league champion, this one’s for you.  Holding your league’s championship game during Week 17, when many playoff-bound teams rest their regulars, may make things more interesting (read:  random), but if that’s what you’re up against, then read on.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  You’ll notice that Jim Sorgi is conspicuously absent.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Seneca Wallace.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Chris Henry, Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Donald Lee, Anthony Fasano, Desmond Clark.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Robbie Gould, Neil Rackers, Olindo Mare, Sebastian Janikowski.

Defenses

Seattle, Atlanta.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

NFL Week 16 is notable for two reasons:  (1) the top seeds in both conferences are at stake, and (2) most fantasy football leagues crown their champions.  The Panthers and Giants will battle for NFC home-field advantage on a cold (and possibly snowy) night in the Meadowlands.  The Steelers will visit the Titans to determine AFC regular-season bragging rights (I’m assuming the Steelers would be able to beat the Browns next weekend).  And fantasy football leagues across the land will conclude their seasons a week early to avoid having the results of their championship games skewed by the likes of Jim Sorgi, David Carr, and Byron Leftwich.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 16’s Saturday, Sunday & Monday contests:

Baltimore at Dallas - Saturday games at the end of the season used to be a staple of the NFL’s schedule.  Unfortunately, the advent of Thursday night games and college football’s never-ending bowl season have seemingly ended this holiday season tradition.  This farewell to Texas Stadium will feature endless flashbacks, aerial shots of the stadium, and, undoubtedly, pictures of Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones strolling the sidelines.  And oh yes, it will also feature a good football game between two teams fighting for their playoff lives.  The Ravens are almost definitely out of the playoff hunt if they lose.  The Cowboys would have a slightly better chance of recovering from a loss, but not by much.  Ravens worth starting this week include RBs LeRon McClain & Willis McGahee, TE Todd Heap, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice (Questionable - calf).  Cowboys who should be in starting lineups include TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), WR Terrell Owens, and the Defense.  I’d avoid QB Tony Romo (Probable - back), RB Marion Barber (Questionable - toe), and RB Tashard Choice (healthy, but still facing the Ravens’ stifling run Defense).

Atlanta at Minnesota - The key to this game may very well be the absence of a man who probably isn’t on a team in your league, unless you play in an IDP (Individual Defensive Players) league.  How will the Vikings compensate for the loss of Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Pat Williams?  With Williams in the lineup the Vikings are virtually impossible to run against.  Without him may be a completely different story.  Given Williams’ absence and the strong Falcons’ ground game, I’d guess that the Falcons will be able to run the ball on the Vikings.  That makes Falcons’ RB Michael Turner a great start and RB Jerious Norwood a good start this week.  Other Falcons worth starting - QB Matt Ryan and WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins.  Vikings’ QB Tarvaris Jackson seems much more comfortable (and effective) now than he did when he was starting earlier this season.  I’d start Jackson, as well as RBs Adrian Peterson (Probable - ankle) & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell.

Arizona at New England - One of several games this weekend with playoff implications in which weather could become a factor.  The forecast calls for a cold day with a chance of snow late in the game.  These conditions definitely favor the Patriots and their superior rushing game.  The Cardinals have no ground game to speak of, and top WR Anquan Boldin is Questionable with a shoulder injury.  Since the Cardinals’ greatest concern at this point is getting healthy for the playoffs (even if it means finishing with an 8-8 record), I wouldn’t start Boldin this weekend if I had better (i.e. - healthier) options.  QB Kurt Warner and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Steve Breaston are the Cardinals worth starting.  Patriots worth starting include QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, & Lamont Jordan, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski.

San Diego at Tampa Bay - Fortunately, weather should play no role in determining the outcome of this game, which also has playoff implications.  Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers figures to have a tough time throwing against the Bucs’ Defense, so I’d leave him out of your starting lineup this week in spite of his production year-to-date.  The only Chargers’ I’d want in my lineup this week are RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates.  It’s unclear who will be starting at QB for the Bucs this week, so I’d steer clear of QB Jeff Garcia (Questionable - calf) as well as his potential replacements.  Bucs worth starting include RBs Warrick Dunn & Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and WR Antonio Bryant.

San Francisco at St. Louis - Finally, a game that features neither playoff implications nor the potential for bad weather.  However, there are still injuries to be concerned about, most notably 49ers’ RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle).  Again, unless you’re going to have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff Sunday afternoon, I’d err on the side of caution and look for healthier alternatives.  49ers who are healthy and should be in starting lineups include QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson, and K Joe Nedney.  Add RB DeShaun Foster to the list if Gore is unable to play.  The Rams are unquestionably a bad football team, but there are still opportunities to mine their lineup for fantasy gold this weekend.  QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry “Scoreboard” Holt & Donnie Avery are all worth starting in your quest for a championship.

Philadelphia at Washington - In spite of their devastating overtime tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the Eagles still have a good chance of getting into the playoffs if they can win this game and get help this weekend from the Vikings.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee), TE L.J. Smith, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense.  I’d avoid WR Kevin Curtis (Questionable - calf) if I had a healthier option.  The wheels have come off Washington’s wagon in recent weeks, and the only Redskin I’d start this week would be TE Chris Cooley.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee - Yet another in a string of games for the Steelers where both Defenses are much better than their Offensive counterparts.  In spite of the injury to key Titans’ Defensive cogs Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, I’d avoid all Steelers’ Offensive players this week except for TE Heath Miller.  Similarly, I’d avoid all Titans except for TE Bo Scaife.  As you might suspect, both Defenses are worth starting.

Miami at Kansas City - If you predicted before the season began that this game would have playoff implications, your crystal ball is obviously clearer than the Sherpa’s (or anyone else’s, for that matter).  The brutal temperature figures to affect both teams, but an absence of wind should still allow the passing games to flourish.  Dolphins worth starting include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - Another game with draft position implications rather than playoff implications.  Still, the Bengals have been playing better in recent weeks, and there may be some fantasy nuggets here to be mined.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Cedric Benson, TE Reggie Kelly, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Probable - hand), Chad Johnson (Probable - hamstring), & Chris Henry, K Shayne Graham, and the Bengals’ Defense are all worth starting.  The only Browns’ players I’d recommend starting this week would be RB Jamal Lewis and WR Braylon Edwards.

New Orleans at Detroit - Many writers, most prominently Yahoo’s Michael Silver, have been stating for weeks that this game represents Detroit’s best chance to win a game this season.  While that may be true, I just don’t see it happening and forecast yet another lopsided loss for the Lions.  Just as an aside, the Rams have been outscored by even more points than the Lions this season, but at least they have two wins to show for it (against the Redskins and Cowboys no less - go figure).  Saints’ QB Drew Brees, RB Pierre Thomas, TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley are all worth starting this week.  Lions worth starting include QB Dan Orlovsky and WR Calvin Johnson.  Add RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - ankle) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

Buffalo at Denver - Even with two porous Defenses, there aren’t as many fantasy options in this game as you might expect.  Bills’ WR Lee Evans should be started; add RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s well enough to play.  Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip/thigh) & Eddie Royal, K Matt Prater, and the Defense (because the Bills’ Offense is a mess).

NY Jets at Seattle  - Much has been made of both the Jets’ 0-3 record this year in West Coast games and the Seahawks’ recent improvement on Offense under QB Seneca Wallace.  In spite of that, I expect the Jets to win this game and set themselves up for next week’s showdown with the Dolphins.  Jets worth starting include QB Brett Favre, RB Thomas Jones, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jerricho Cotchery & Laveranues Coles, K Jay Feely, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk I’d start is TE John Carlson.

Houston at Oakland - Yet another game with no playoff implications but a number of potential fantasy contributors.  Texans worth starting include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown. The only Raiders I’d start are RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden.

Carolina at NY Giants - Another game (aka - the battle of the Steve Smiths) with playoff implications that may be affected by weather.  In spite of the Giants’ struggles the past two weeks and the Panthers’ recent successes on Offense, the only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith.  Giants worth starting include QB Eli Manning, TE Kevin Boss, WRs Amani Toomer & Steve Smith, and K John Carney.  Add RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable - knee) to the list if he’s able to play; add RBs Derrick Ward (Probable - ankle) and Ahmad Bradshaw (Probable - neck) to the list if Jacobs isn’t able to play.

Green Bay at Chicago - One final game with playoff implications that may be affected by brutally cold temperatures.  Packers worth starting include QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Brandon Lloyd & Devin Hester, and K Robbie Gould.  Add RB Matt Forte (Questionable - toe) to the list if he’s able to play.

With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

With most leagues’ championship games taking place this weekend, this week’s Thursday night game offers a number of options that may be able to give your team a leg up on the competition heading into the weekend’s games.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville - For the second week in a row the Thursday night game features a dome team going on the road.  While New Orleans’ defeat in Chicago last week was quite foreseeable, an Indianapolis loss this week in Jacksonville would be a complete shocker, and it’s not going to happen.  The only suspense heading into this game is which Colts’ Running Back will get to do the honors against a Jacksonville Defense that appears to be playing out the string.  RB Joseph Addai is listed as Questionable with a shoulder injury - unless you’ll have access to your lineup shortly before kickoff, don’t take the risk that would come with starting him - his backfield mate RB Dominic Rhodes is a much safer (and probably better) play this week.  Other Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, WRs Reggie Wayne &  Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense.  Note that WR Marvin Harrison has already been declared out for the game, and TE Dallas Clark is listed as Questionable with a hip injury (if Clark plays, he’s worth starting too).  The only Jaguars worth starting are RB Maurice Jones-Drew and TE Marcedes Lewis.

More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa

Congratulations to those who advanced to the finals in your league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 15 games!  One more challenge to be met before you can be crowned champion of your league and have bragging rights for the next year (or at least until next year’s draft)!  Actually, two more if you happen to be an unfortunate owner with Reggie Bush in your starting lineup.  Since Bush has been placed on Injured Reserve and is done for the season, you’ll need to find a replacement.  Some of you may also be looking for free agents with more favorable matchups than those for the players currently on your roster.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  As was the case last week, any players on this list are just one-week recommendations at this point.

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Tarvaris Jackson, Marc Bulger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell.

Running Backs

DeShaun Foster, Kevin Faulk, Fred Jackson, Lamont Jordan.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Bobby Wade, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Davone Bess, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Sidney Rice, Chris Henry, James Jones.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Billy Miller.

Kickers

Garrett Hartley, Joe Nedney, Josh Brown, Joe Nedney, Jason Hanson, Dan Carpenter, Connor Barth.

Defenses

Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Denver.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let those of you who are already looking forward to baseball season know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central.   The draft starts at 8pm Eastern Time and features 12 industry experts.  The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories:  AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories:  W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP).  If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio.  I have the 4th pick in the first round.

Hope you’re able to tune in/watch!

The Sherpa