The Fantasy Football Sherpa

With fantasy football playoffs in full swing, there’s no margin for error.  Lose and your season comes to an abrupt end, leaving you to press your nose against the window of the fantasy football playoffs store for another week or two, wishing you were inside amid the warmth instead of left out in the cold.  Matchup analysis becomes even more critical during than playoff weeks than it is during the regular season, so let’s have at it.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 15’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Seattle at St. Louis - In your hunt to garner the points necessary for a playoff week victory, don’t overlook potential contributors from bad teams (such as these two).  Each team has several players who may help push you over the top this week.  Seahawks worth starting include QB Seneca Wallace, RB Maurice Morris, TE John Carlson, WRs Deion Branch & Bobby Engram, and K Olindo Mare.  Rams worth starting are QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery.

San Francisco at Miami - San Francisco’s Offense figures to be able to pass the ball against the Dolphins.  The Dolphins figure to be able to do whatever they want to on Offense against the 49ers.  San Francisco QB Shaun Hill, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Isaac Bruce & Bryant Johnson are all worth starting.  Star RB Frank Gore (Questionable - ankle) is also worth starting if he’s healthy enough to play.  Miami players who should be started include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.

Buffalo at NY Jets - These two teams have a lot more in common besides their division and home state.  First the Bills, then the Jets, looked like they might be a dominant team this season.  Then, the wheels started to come off for both teams.  It’s hard to see a team like the Jets that’s wrung up losses the last two weeks to the Broncos and 49ers (and more importantly, has looked terrible doing so) making the playoffs.  However, the Jets still have a chance to pull out of their tailspin and make the playoffs, while the Bills are already “playing for pride”.  Bills worth starting include QB J.P. Losman, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, and WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed.  The Jets have even more startworthy options - the list includes QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Denver at Carolina - Broncos RB Tatum Bell comes with a lot of baggage, including some he allegedly stole from former Lions’ teammate Cedric Benson.  However, in what seems like a league full of players receiving second chances, Bell now finds himself the Broncos’ starting RB again with little competition for the role (Selvin Young is listed as Probable with a groin injury, so although he may receive a number of carries, it’s unlikely he’ll be as effective as Bell).  If your other RBs have bad matchups this week, Bell is definitely startworthy against the Panthers’ run Defense.  Other Broncos worth starting include QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater.  Panthers worth pouncing on and putting in your starting lineup include QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, and K John Kasay.

Green Bay at Jacksonville - For all the debate prior to the season re: whether the Packers should turn over the reins to QB Aaron Rodgers or bring back Brett Favre for one more season, Rodgers has been the far more effective of the two from a fantasy perspective (if not from a won-loss perspective).  Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be included in fantasy lineups this week.  Jaguars who should be started include QB David Garrard, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Reggie Williams, and K Josh Scobee.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore - The over/under points total for this game shouldn’t be much above 2 - the two teams’ Defenses are that dominant, and their Offenses are that mediocre.  Accordingly, the only players who should be started along with the two teams’ Defenses are TE Heath Miller for Pittsburgh and TE Todd Heap for Baltimore.  I’m not sure what the opposite of a barn-burner is, but whatever it is, that’s what you should expect this game to be.

San Diego at Kansas City - This game, on the other hand, could be a barn-burner.  Remember how dominant the Chargers’ Defense was supposed to be according to all the preseason hype?  Hasn’t exactly worked out that way, has it?  Just another case study for why you should always wait until the last round or two to pick your Defense (picking a Kicker in the other round).  Offensively, the Chargers are still a potentially explosive team, and QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding should all be started.  Chiefs worth starting include QB Tyler Thigpen, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Dwayne Bowe, and K Connor Barth.

Detroit at Indianapolis - At the risk of having the Lions and the Colts (or the Saints or the Packers) make me look foolish, we’re on the verge of history here - the Lions should become the first team to go through a 16-game NFL schedule without a single victory.  With Daunte Culpeper hurt and no clear replacement (Drew Henson, anyone?), none of the Lions, not even the ultratalented Calvin Johnson (Questionable - hand) should be in your lineup this weekend.  The Colts on the other hand offer an embarrassment of riches this week.  QB Peyton Manning, RB Domenic Rhodes, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense all belong in starting lineups this weekend.  Add RB Joseph Addai (Questionable - shoulder) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

Tennessee at Houston - A great matchup between Tennessee’s strong Defense and Houston’s powerful Offense.  Titans worth starting include QB Kerry Collins, RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brad Jones, and K Rob Bironas.  In spite of their powerful Offense, the only Titans I’d be comfortable starting this week are TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - I’m not sure which is harder to fathom - Atlanta’s well-rounded Offense or their total lack of Defense.  Tampa Bay figures to be able to exploit the latter while having some success dealing with the former.  Bucs worth starting this week include resurgent RB Warrick Dunn, TE Alex Smith, WRs Antonio Bryant & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant.  Atlanta figures to have more success moving the ball on the ground than through the air - Falcons to start include RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WR Roddy White.

Washington at Cincinnati  - I’ve found myself wondering recently who would win if the Lions and the Bengals were to play each other.  Fortunately, we won’t have to find out this season.  This week it’s the Redskins’ turn to exploit the Bengals’ disastrous combination of injuries and lack of team chemistry.  Redskins to start this week include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  Leave all Bengals on the bench - this is yet another NETJH weekend for them (Not Even T.J. Houshmandzadeh).

Minnesota at Arizona - If the over/under for total points in the Steelers-Ravens game should be only slightly north of 2, then the over/under for total points in this game should be only slightly south of 70. Vikes’ QB Tarvaris Jackson is the only reason I think the total points might not exceed that figure.  Still, Jackson is worth starting if your other QBs have tough matchups this week, are injured, or are named Ryan Fitzpatrick (in which case you’re probably not in your league’s playoffs to begin with).  Other Vikings who should be started include RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, and K Ryan Longwell.  Cardinals worth starting include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower (on the assumption that he’ll be a passing target out of the backfield), and WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Questionable - ribs) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.

New England at Oakland -Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel is dealing with the passing of his father this week, and it’s unclear whether he’ll play Sunday.  Assuming he does, Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker & Randy Moss, and K Stephen Gostkowski are all worth starting.  If Cassel is replaced at QB by Kevin O’Connell, then strike Welker and Moss from the list in addition to Cassel.  Raiders worth starting include RB Justin Fargas, RB Darren McFadden, and TE Heath Miller.

NY Giants at Dallas - For all the offensive firepower that will be on display in this game, it’s important to remember that the two Defenses are no slouches, suggesting that you pass on most players associated with this game.  Giants worth starting include RB Derrick Ward and TE Kevin Boss.  Cowboys worth starting are QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ankle), and WR Terrell Owens.

Cleveland at Philadelphia - Maybe it’s something in the water in Ohio.  Maybe it’s just that both the Browns and Bengals are overmatched this week.  In either case, there are no Browns worth starting this week, just as there are no Bengals worth starting this week.  Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - ankle, knee), TE L.J. Smith (Probable - knee), WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Defense.

With no margin for error, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone!

Just wanted to let you know that the Sherpa will be a guest on today’s Good Day Street Talk show, seen on FOX Channel 5 in NYC from 6-6:30am.  I’m not sure when within that period the interview will run.  The topic - starting a small business during challenging economic times.

Hope you’re able to watch/record it!

The Sherpa

By now all fantasy football leagues are into the second season (i.e. - the playoffs).  Unlike the NFL, there is no real advantage to having the best regular season record.  There is a fair amount of randomness in the fantasy football regular season, especially at the individual player level, but even at the team level (e.g. - how many times have you had the second highest-scoring team in your league for a week, only to lose because you had the misfortune of playing the highest-scoring team that week?)

When you’re looking at a one-game sample, such as the fantasy football playoffs, that randomness is much greater still.  The “best team” does not always win  If a couple of your star players just happen to have poor games in the same week (e.g. - Tom Brady in Week 14 last season against the Jets), your season is likely over.  Conversely, an unanticipated contribution from an unexpected source can propel your team to victory (Ron Dayne, anyone?)

Although all fantasy football team owners hope the “Dayne Effect” will pick their team up and take it on a magic carpet ride to the league championship, keep in mind that hope is not a plan.  Now more than ever, you need to manage your team on a week-to-week basis.  Have any Steelers or Ravens offensive players in your starting lineup?  Not a good idea this week, since the two defensive heavyweights square off in Baltimore.  You may be better off going with offensive players from Seattle and St. Louis, who have the advantage of facing each other’s Defenses.  Now is not the time to let pride or fear cloud your judgment.  If you have a great player with a lousy matchup this week, look for alternatives.  Don’t worry, the player will get over not being in your starting lineup this week.

This Thursday’s game offers a number of options on both teams that may be able to jump-start your team for your playoff game this week.

New Orleans at Chicago - You’ve read/heard it a thousand times.  Dome teams don’t play well outdoors in cold-weather cities late in the season.  Does this mean you should keep Drew Brees and company on the bench this week?  Of course not!  It’s highly unlikely the Saints, even Pierre Thomas (this year’s Ron Dayne?), will be able to move the ball on the ground against Chicago’s tough run Defense.  If Brees is forced to throw 45-50 times, which may very well happen tonight, he’s going to put up the kind of fantasy stats that will help your team, even if the game is played on the shores of Lake Michigan.  Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson should all be in starting lineups this week.  While the Bears certainly aren’t as strong offensively as the Saints, their offense should have success moving the ball against the Saints both on the ground and through the air.  Start QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & TE Desmond Clark (Questionable - hamstring), WRs Devin Hester & Rashied Davis, and K Robbie Gould.

More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa

Congratulations to those who qualified for or advanced in their league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 14 games!  Now the fun begins.  Perhaps your team suffered an untimely injury last weekend (e.g. - Peyton Hillis).  Perhaps your team is heavily dependent on a star Running Back whose health is questionable (e.g. - Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Frank Gore).  Perhaps Matt Jones was starting at Wide Receiver for your team.  Perhaps you were relying on Gus Frerotte at Quarterback - well, maybe not (if so, it’s highly unlikely you’d be reading this) . . .

Whether due to injury, a poor matchup, or simply to block an opponent from snagging a player for their upcoming matchup with your team, for those whose league rules permit roster adjustments during playoff weeks, it’s crucial to optimize your matchups on a weekly basis.  Lose at this point, and your fantasy football season is likely over.  You don’t want to have to listen to leaguemates discuss fantasy football playoffs that no longer include you.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll no longer divide recommendations into Short Term, Long Term, and Speculative pickups - at this point, any player I list is recommended based solely on their next matchup (warning - this will make the lists much shorter than they’ve been in previous weeks).

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Daunte Culpepper.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles, Ahmard Hall.

Wide Receivers

Bobby Engram, Brandon Jones, Brandon Stokley, Ike Hilliard, Steve Smith (NYG), Hank Baskett, Henry Douglas, Jordy Nelson.

Tight Ends

Donald Lee, Desmond Clark, Marcedes Lewis, Jerramy Stevens, David Martin.

Kickers

Josh Brown, Robbie Gould, Connor Barth, Dan Carpenter.

Defenses

Seattle, St. Louis.

Admittedly, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here in many cases, but frankly, there are far fewer viable options to choose from  at the end of the season if you’re taking just a one-week view.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Between the seemingly nonstop coverage the last few days of the trials and tribulations of O.J. Simpson, Plaxico Burress, and (to a lesser extent) Shaun Ellis, you may be forgiven if you wonder whether there are any actual games being played this week.  Let’s get the focus back on the field, where it belongs, and hope it stays there for awhile.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 14’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Cincinnati at Indianapolis - A lot of bad football teams are said to be playing for “pride” late in the season.  Pride is no match for a motivated football team, and the Bengals figure to be no match for the Colts either.  Accordingly, there are no Bengals I would recommend starting this week (yes, that includes T.J. Houshmandzadeh).  It’s a different story for the Colts - QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Defense should all be started this week.

Cleveland at Tennessee - The Browns are another example of a team playing for pride, and the Titans are another example of a motivated team.  The Browns are now down to their third-string quarterback (Ken Dorsey), and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be as successful as the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback (Tyler Thigpen) has been.  Then again, hopefully no embarrassing pictures will emerge of Dorsey holding a skeleton while he was in college.  At least the Browns have a player worth starting this week - that would be RB Jamal Lewis (wonder what he’s thinking this week with all the news about football players and law enforcement).  Consider yourself fortunate if you have any Titans on your roster - QB Kerry Collins, RBs Chris Johnson & LenDale White, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense are all worth starting.

Houston at Green Bay - Who will start at quarterback this week for the Texans - Sage Rosenfels or Matt Schaub?  The answer, at least from your perspective, is that it doesn’t matter - neither one should be started against a strong Packers’ pass Defense.  However, Texans’ RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, and WR Andre Johnson should be started.  Packers worth starting this week include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (Probable - thumb), TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.

Minnesota at Detroit - The Vikings are yet another motivated team, and the Lions are yet another team playing for pride (the pride of the Lions?).  Vikings who should be in starting lineups this weekend include QB Gus Frerotte, RBs Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense.  The only Lion I’d start is WR Calvin Johnson.

Jacksonville at Chicago - Jacksonville plays the role of the “pride team” in this game, while the Bears play the role of the “motivated team”.  The Jaguars don’t figure to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but they should be able to amass a decent number of passing yards.  Start QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WRs Matt Jones & Reggie Williams.  Bears worth starting include QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, & Brandon Lloyd, and K Robbie Gould.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - In a game featuring two Offenses capable of producing big point totals, I’m actually avoiding most players on both teams - there’s just too much uncertainty given the strength of both teams on Defense.  The only Eagles I’d recommend starting are RB Brian Westbrook (Probable - knee, ankle) and TE L.J. Smith (Probable - hamstring).  The only Giant I’d recommend starting is TE Kevin Boss (Jeremy who?).

Atlanta at New Orleans - On paper at least this figures to be the highest-scoring game of the week, as both Offenses are high-flying, and both Defenses are suspect.  Falcons who should be started include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, and WRs Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, & Henry Douglas.  Saints worth starting include QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush (Probable - knee), TEs Jeremy Shockey & Billy Miller, WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, & Devery Henderson, and K Garrett Hartley.  Add RB Deuce McAllister to the list if he plays; add RB Pierre Thomas to the list if he doesn’t.

NY Jets at San Francisco - One could argue that the 49ers are more than a “pride team” since Head Coach Mike Singletary took over, but the Jets are clearly the more motivated team here. Start Jets’ QB Brett Favre, RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder) & Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh), and K Jay Feely.  The 49ers’ passing game should be able to move the ball on the Jets’ Defense, so start QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce.

Miami at Buffalo - This game is the first NFL contest to be played north of the border (in Toronto), and both teams have a number of worthwhile fantasy options.  Dolphins who should be in your starting lineup include QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.  Bills who should be started include RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed, and K Rian Lindell.

Kansas City at Denver - Think of this game as Atlanta-New Orleans lite - two teams with plentiful options on Offense going against Defenses that have little to no chance of stopping them.  Chiefs who should be started this week include QB Tyler Thigpen (pay attention, Ken Dorsey!), RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, and K Connor Barth.  Broncos worth starting this week include QB Jay Cutler, RB Peyton Hillis, WRs Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip), & Brandon Stokley, and K Matt Prater.

New England at Seattle  - The Patriots are the motivated team, the Seahawks are the pride team.  You know what to do by now.  Start Patriots’ QB Matt Cassel, RBs Sammy Morris & Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson, WRs Wes Welker (Probable - head) & Randy Moss, K Sebastien Gostkowski, and the Defense.  The only Seahawk worth starting is TE John Carlson.

St. Louis at Arizona - St. Louis is your pride team; Arizona’s your motivated team.  Start Rams’ QB Marc Bulger (no, I’m not crazy), RB Steven Jackson (Questionable - thigh), and WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery (Questionable - hip).  Cardinals who should be in your starting lineup include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, WRs Anquan Boldin (Questionable - back), Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.

Dallas at Pittsburgh - Finally, another game between two motivated teams!  Dallas QB Tony Romo appears to be back close to full strength, and the Cowboys looked impressive in victories the last two weeks over the 49ers and Seahawks.  Still, with the strength of the Steelers’ Defense I don’t expect this game to be much of a contest, and the only Cowboy I’d recommend starting this week is TE Jason Witten.  Steelers worth starting include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, and the Defense.

Washington at Baltimore - While the Ravens’ Defense is one of the strongest in football, don’t overlook the Redskins’ Defense, which is no slouch itself.  Accordingly, there isn’t much to like in this game from a fantasy standpoint.  Start Redskins’ TE Chris Cooley and the Defense.  Start Ravens’ TE Todd Heap and the Defense.  That’s it.  The Nationals and Orioles might play a higher-scoring game than these two teams.

Tampa Bay at Carolina - Like the Redskins’ Defense, the Buccaneers’ Defense doesn’t get enough credit.  Like the Dallas-Pittsburgh matchup, I expect this to be a rather one-sided game, but with the visiting team dominating in this one.  I’d start Buccaneers’ QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Antonio Bryant, Ike Hilliard, & Michael Clayton, K Matt Bryant, and the Defense.  The only Panther I’d recommend starting this week is WR Steve Smith (yes, you read that correctly - RB DeAngelo Williams will break your heart this week if you start him against the Bucs’ Defense).

Especially since this is the first week of the playoffs for many of you, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to share some great publicity Fantasy Football Sherpa received this morning in “The Fifth Down“, the NY Times’ NFL blog.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Much has been said and written in recent days about erstwhile Giants’ Super Bowl hero WR Plaxico Burress and his ill-fated foray into Manhattan’s Latin Quarter night club last Friday evening.  Resist the urge to read yet another story about this incident - just be thankful he didn’t hurt anyone besides himself (or beside him), and move on.  You have more important things on your mind - like the economy, the holiday season, and (hopefully) your league’s fantasy football playoffs.

At the risk of stating the obvious and repeating myself from previous posts, you must remain vigilant if you hope to capture your fantasy football league’s championship.  The team that got you to the playoffs isn’t necessarily the team that will allow you to win the championship.  Go over your players’ matchups as closely as time permits, shore up any perceived weaknesses, then sit back and let the fun begin.  It can be difficult justifying to yourself (let alone others) why you’ve decided to go with Justin Fargas as one of your RBs instead of Brian Westbrook in a playoff game.  However, if that’s the more favorable matchup, then you must take advantage of that.  People will remember who won your league’s championship - hardly anyone will remember (or care) who was on the winning team’s roster.

Even though this week’s Thursday night game has the potential to be a snoozer, there are still players on both teams who can help guide your team to victory this week.

Oakland at San Diego - Before the season began many thought San Diego would be a Super Bowl contender, and many thought Oakland would be right about where they are now.  Yes, San Diego lost defensive stalwart Shawne Merriman at the start of the season, but few predicted that his absence would result in the defensive unit’s total collapse.  Ed Hochuli is probably one of the most relieved men in America, as it looks like his refereeing blunder in the Week 2 Chargers-Broncos game will turn out to be irrelevant (unless you were betting on the outcome of that particular game).  RB Justin Fargas and TE Zach Miller (Probable - groin) are the only Raiders worth starting.  For the Chargers start QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense.

More to come on Friday!
The Sherpa

Welcome to “meaningful December football” - congrats to those of you who’ve already qualified for your league’s playoffs, and good luck to those who are still in contention and need a final victory this weekend to get your foot in the door.  On the injury front there were several “big names” who went out with injuries this past weekend (both football-related and self-inflicted) - QBs Derek Anderson & Trent Edwards, and of course, WR Plaxico Burress.  Anderson and Burress are both out for the season - actually, Burress’ career may very well be over - even in the NFL there isn’t much of a market for 34-year-old ex-cons, which is what Burress would be if he is convicted of illegal possession of a firearm and serves 3 years in prison.  Still, chances are you weren’t relying heavily on any of the three at this point, so hopefully the impact on your fantasy team is minimal.

Just in case you need to add a player this week due to injury, suspension, or a bad matchup, here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT) (i.e. - the rest of the season), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners this week (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again in subsequent weeks.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team this week (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton (LT), Daunte Culpepper (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), J.P. Losman (SPEC), Matt Schaub (SPEC).

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Tashard Choice (SPEC), Kenneth Darby (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Davonne Bess (LT), Josh Reed (LT), Bobby Engram (LT), Shaun McDonald (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Brandon Jones (ST), Justin Gage (ST), Brandon Stokley (ST), Malcom Floyd (ST), Steve Smith (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Mark Clayton (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC), Hank Baskett (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Donald Lee (LT), Heath Miller (ST), Billy Miller (SPEC), Daniel Graham (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC).

Kickers

Jay Feely (LT), Joe Nedney (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Dan Carpenter (LT).

Defenses

San Diego (LT), Dallas (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Many are undoubtedly kicking themselves for their decision yesterday not to start Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook and (to a lesser extent) QB Donovan McNabb.  Don’t.  And the Sherpa writes this as someone who has both Westbrook and McNabb on his fantasy team this year and decided to bench both of them this week.

Yes, that’s a lot of points to leave on the bench, but in fantasy football, especially at this time of year, risk avoidance is key, and benching both Westbrook and McNabb this week was the smart decision (assuming you had reasonable alternatives on your bench).  Westbrook was listed as Questionable with knee and ankle injuries coming into this game, as he was the last several weeks.  McNabb had suffered through a string of several subpar games, there was no way of knowing how his benching last Sunday against the Ravens was going to affect him, and most importantly, his top offensive weapon (Westbrook) was a big question mark.

It’s easy to point to the result and use that as the basis for second-guessing the decision, but that’s a fruitless exercise since it’s based on a meaningless sample size of one.  Forget Westbrook’s lousy performance against a very strong Ravens’ Defense last Sunday - he would have been hard pressed to turn in a good performance even if he had been at 100%.  The week before against the Bengals Westbrook also laid an egg (and don’t get me started on Reggie Bush’s will he/won’t he routine the last few weeks!).  Thus, given his recent performance (or lack thereof) and his injury status, benching Westbrook this week was a logical decision.  Of course, the most carefully reasoned decisions don’t always work out - accept it and move on.

Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 13’s Sunday & Monday contests:

Carolina at Green Bay - Considering some of the marquee names on both teams (e.g. - Steve Smith, Greg Jennings), this game offers little in the way of recommended fantasy options for this week.  Carolina figures to have a hard time throwing against the Packers’ Defense, while Green Bay figures to have a hard time doing anything against the Panthers’ Defense.  The only Panthers I’d recommend as starters this week are RB DeAngelo Williams and the Defense.  The only Packer I’d recommend starting this week is TE Donald Lee.

Baltimore at Cincinnati - The Bengals may well win a second game this season, but this won’t be it.  The Ravens figure to have a field day against the Bengals, and QB Joe Flacco, RBs Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain (Probable - thigh), & Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap (Probable - illness), WR Derrick Mason (Probable - shoulder), K Matt Stover, and the Defense should all be started this week.  Normally, I’d recommend Bengals’ WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a starting option, but even though the Bengals will probably be forced to throw 40+ times in this game, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably face a relentless Ravens’ pass rush that won’t give him enough time to find Houshmandzadeh often enough to make him worth starting.

San Francisco at Buffalo - I’m not as impressed by Buffalo’s Defense as others appear to be; conversely, I’m much more optimistic than others about the fantasy prospects of the 49ers’ players this week.  QB Shaun Hill, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Bryant Johnson & Isaac Bruce, and K Joe Nedney are all worth starting.  I don’t see the Bills being able to run much against the 49ers’ Defense, but the passing game is another story - QB Trent Edwards, TE Robert Royal, and WRs Lee Evans & Josh Reed are all start-worthy.

Indianapolis at Cleveland - Another apparent mismatch in a weekend that seemingly contains more than its fair share.  After starting the season 3-4, the Colts have won four games in a row to improve their record to 7-4 and figure to be favored in at least four of their last five games.  While backup QB Jim Sorgi may not get to play his customary game or two at the end of the season in relief of starting QB Peyton Manning, not too many fantasy owners will mind.  Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne (if he decides to show up), Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, K Adam Vinatieri, and the Colts Defense should all be in starting lineups this week.  In a strange twist of fate QB Brady Quinn is out for the season (finger injury on his throwing hand) while Head Coach Romeo Crennel retains his job for at least another week.  QB Derek Anderson once again takes over the Browns’ Offense, but keep him as far away from your fantasy starting lineup as possible.  The only Browns worth starting this week are RB Jamal Lewis and TE Kellen Winslow (Probable - shoulder).

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Another game where I’m going against the grain and urging you to avoid starting any Saints - yes, that’s right, any (yes, that includes QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee)!).  Tampa Bay has a strong all-around Defense, and as I wrote above, your primary goal as a fantasy football team owner at this point in the season is to avoid risk.  Tampa’s Offense doesn’t impress me much - keep in mind that 14 of the 38 points they put up last weekend against the Lions came courtesy of scores by their Defense.  Accordingly, RB Warrick Dunn is the only Buccaneer I’d recommend starting.

NY Giants at Washington - In another counterintuitive recommendation, I’d stay away from all of the Giants’ players this week.  Washington’s Defense is underrated - they’ve given up no more than 24 points in a game this season, and the Giants will be hard-pressed to top that total.  As with Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook, I’d advise against starting Redskins’ RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee) this week - he’s just not worth the risk if you have healthier options you can start in his place.  The only Redskin I’d start this week is TE Chris Cooley.

Miami at St. Louis - The Dolphins were outgunned last week by Matt Cassel and the Patriots, but this game seems designed to get them back into the win column.  Dolphins’ QB Chad Pennington has been one of the best surprises in fantasy football this season - Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter should all be in starting lineups this week.  Rams’ RB Steven Jackson is once again listed as Questionable with his thigh injury - once again, keep him out of your fantasy lineup this week (see above:  Westbrook, Brian and Portis, Clinton).  I’d also advise against starting QB Marc Bulger, who’s listed as Probable in spite of a concussion.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see backup QB Trent Green, who knows a few things about concussions himself, play significant minutes in this game.  Regardless of who the Rams’ QB is, expect them to get the ball to WRs Torry Holt & Donnie Avery, both of whom are worth starting.

Denver at NY Jets - Broncos’ RB Peyton Hillis has come a long way in 12 months.  This time last year he was the third option in Arkansas’ backfield, behind future first round draft picks Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.  Now, Jones is done for the season in Dallas, McFadden is finally healthy but still sharing carries with Justin Fargas in Oakland, and Hillis is the featured back in Denver (which is a bit like being the starting WR on a team that runs the wishbone).  While Hillis is a heartwarming story, he doesn’t belong in your fantasy lineups this week facing an imposing Jets’ run Defense.  Denver may pass 45-50 times in this game, and QB Jay Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, and WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal all belong in starting lineups.  Jets’ QB Brett Favre hasn’t been asked to throw the ball as often this season as he did in his Packers’ days, but he’s still worth starting against a poor Broncos’ Defense, as are RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WRs Laveranues Coles (Questionable - thigh) & Jericho Cotchery (Probable - shoulder), and K Jay Feely.

Atlanta at San Diego - This game gets the Sherpa’s vote for most entertaining, highest scoring matchup of the weekend.  Both teams feature explosive RBs (even if LaDainian Tomlinson hasn’t really played up to his first pick status this season), first-rate aerial attacks, and suspect Defenses.  Put it all together, and 65-70 combined points isn’t out of the question.  Falcons who should be started include QB Matt Ryan, RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood, WRs Roddy White (Questionable - back) & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam.  Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Chris Chambers & Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.

Kansas City at Oakland - As with the Bills, I’m not as impressed with the Raiders’ pass Defense as others are.  Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen has been another pleasant surprise this season, and he should be started this week, along with RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley (Questionable - calf), and K Connor Barth.  Of course, the Chiefs’ Defense will offer little to no resistance, making Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell, RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, WR Ronald Curry, and K Sebastien Janikowski good starts this week.

Pittsburgh at New England  - Steelers’ RB Willie Parker (Questionable - knee) is Exhibit E this week in the litany of injured RBs to keep out of your starting lineup (along with Westbrook, Portis, Jackson, & Bush).  New England’s pass Defense has been exposed the past two weeks by the Jets and the Dolphins - expect the Steelers to continue that trend this week.  Steelers’ QB Ben Roethilisberger, TE Heath Miller, & WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes are all worth starting this week, as is the Steelers’ Defense.  The host Patriots figure to be in for a long day on Offense - the only starter I’d recommend is TE Ben Watson.

Chicago at Minnesota - When these two teams met in Chicago on Oct 19th, the result was a Bears’ victory in a 48-41 shootout.  I expect the same outcome this week in a much lower scoring game.  QB Kyle Orton, TE Greg Olsen, WRs Rashied Davis, Brandon Lloyd, & Devin Hester, and the Bears’ Defense should all be started.  I expect the Vikings to have a difficult time moving the ball by ground or air (making them the anti- FedEx) - the only starter I’d recommend is TE Visanthe Shiancoe.

Jacksonville at Houston - If Jaguars’ QB David Garrard (Questionable - back) is well enough to play Monday night, this game could also be an entertaining shootout.  Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Matt Jones & Reggie Williams, and K Josh Scobee should all be started.  Texans’ QB Sage Rosenfels, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown are all start-worthy options as well.

Once again, you’ll notice I’ve recommended a lot of players this week (non-RBs!) who are listed as Questionable - as always, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.

Good luck this week!

The Sherpa

The annual Turkey Day Tripleheader is upon us, and unfortunately, two of the three matches appear to be mismatches (at least on paper).  The most intriguing game of the day is the evening contest in Philadelphia between the Arizona Cardinals and the Eagles.  The outcome of this game hinges on the physical well-being of Eagles’ RB Brian Westbrook and the mental well-being of Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb, who was unceremoniously (and inexplicably) benched during Sunday’s loss at Baltimore.  Sure, McNabb has played poorly lately, and his explanations of how it takes him awhile to warm up and get into the flow of a game sound lame.  Still, to throw an inexperienced QB such as Kevin Kolb into the fray in a game your team needs to win to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt seemed like a desperation move by Eagles’ head coach Andy Reid.

How will McNabb respond now that he’s been named the starter again?  Many claim that McNabb’s psyche is fragile, that he can’t take the heat of playing in front of the often-hostile home crowd, etc.  I don’t buy any of that.  Even though McNabb had a “horrible” game in the overtime tie with the Bengals (compounded by his post-game admission that he didn’t realize a regular season NFL game could end in a tie), he still managed to pass for over 300 yards.  Last weekend he was up against the Ravens’ Defense, one of the top units in football.  Yes, the Giants made the Ravens look like a college team the previous weekend, but they were playing at full strength.  With an injured RB Brian Westbrook, the Eagles obviously aren’t.  Putting a new QB into the lineup doesn’t cure what currently ails the Eagles - until Westbrook is healthy again, the Eagles’ Offense will continue to struggle no matter who’s taking the snaps.

With that in mind here are the fantasy-relevant players in the three Thursday games:

Tennessee at Detroit - While I don’t begrudge the Lions their tradition of hosting a Thanksgiving Day game, part of me wishes this were the game on the NFL Network rather than the Arizona-Philly matchup.  Still, there are some interesting story lines here.  Detroit’s Offense is capable of putting up points; unfortunately, their Defense is even more capable of giving them up, which has kept them winless to this point.  How will Tennessee react now that they’ve been knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten?  Will LenDale White pay attention long enough to run over the Lions’ awful Defense?  Titans who should be in starting lineups include QB Kerry Collins, RBs White & Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, K Rob Bironas, and the Defense.  The only Lions worth starting are RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - shoulder), if he’s able to play, and WR Calvin Johnson.

Seattle at Dallas - With QB Tony Romo back at the helm the Cowboys are beginning to show signs of why many people (including The Sherpa) picked them to win the Super Bowl this season.  With all of the turmoil they’ve been through this season, it’s hard to believe the Cowboys are 7-4 and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.  A win in this game probably allows the Cowboys to get into the playoffs by splitting their last four games (which still won’t be an easy feat with a schedule of Pittsburgh, the NY Giants, Baltimore, and Philadelphia).  Seattle’s season has been ruined by injuries, especially those to QB Matt Hasselbeck and his receiving corps.  The only Seahawks worth starting this week are RB Julius Jones and TE John Carlson.  Cowboys who should be started this week include Romo (Probable - finger), RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten (Probable - ribs), WRs Terrell Owens & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.

Arizona at Philadelphia - In spite of their bad outing against the Ravens last weekend, the Eagles’ Defense has been among the top in the league over the course of the season.  Unfortunately, the Offense has sputtered with RB Brian Westbrook at less than full health, the Defense has been spending more time on the field, and the results are predictable.  That trend will likely continue this week, as Westbrook probably won’t be at full strength once again after receiving 14 carries on Sunday against the Ravens, then having a short week to recover.  Cardinals to start this week include QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower, and WRs Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, & Steve Breaston.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, TE L.J. Smith, and WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis.  If I had healthier options, I would advise against starting Westbrook this week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Sherpa