Every football season offers a handful of players who perform far above expectations. Some become key contributors to their fantasy owners’ teams’ success. Others become opportunistic plays when an owner decides to sit a bigger name with a seemingly more difficult matchup. Some gain their jobs due to injuries; some due to the ineffectiveness of a player who started the season higher up on the depth charts.
The common characteristic these players share is that they have far outperformed their draft position or auction price at the beginning of the season, assuming they were even drafted or purchased to begin with. Some, like Arizona QB Kurt Warner, now widely mentioned as an MVP candidate, were almost certainly drafted back in late August/early September by owners who must now feel like they won the fantasy football equivalent of the lottery. Others, through savvy waiver wire acquisitions were able to add the likes of QB Kyle Orton, RB Steve Slaton, WR Eddie Royal, and WR Donnie Avery, just to name a few.
Newton’s 3rd Law could have well been developed with fantasy football in mind - whenever a player like Tom Brady or Edgerrin James falls by the wayside, an opportunity is created for potential fantasy contributors such as Matt Cassel and Tim Hightower. Predicting which players will become a given season’s diamonds in the rough is a usually a futile exercise that is much more art than science - better to employ the “shoot first, ask questions later” strategy in pursuing a potential diamond. An unidentified object burning brightly in the fantasy football galaxy is far more likely to be a supernova than a star, but the search for a rare star keeps us interested week after week.
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 12’s Sunday & Monday contests:
NY Jets at Tennessee - This week’s “Battle of the Titans (and former Titans)” is a real head-scratcher. The Jets don’t figure to be able to throw against Tennessee’s Defense; the Titans don’t figure to be able to run against the Jets’ Defense. I predict the Titans will have more success running the ball than the Jets will have throwing the ball, which should result in the Titans remaining undefeated for another week (actually, 4 days, since they play the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, which should keep them loss-free for at least another 10 days after that). The only Jets I’d recommend starting this week are RB Thomas Jones and emerging star TE Dustin Keller. For the Titans QB Kerry Collins, RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, WRs Justin Gage & Brandon Jones, and the Defense are all worth starting (Johnson on the assumption that he will be targeted a fair number of times as a receiver out of the backfield).
Buffalo at Kansas City - If these two teams’ recent fortunes were stock prices, the Bills would be on a sharp downward trend, while the Chiefs, having already hit a trough, are slowly beginning to rise from the ashes again. It would be easy to look at this game, figure that the Chiefs have momentum (if you can really call it that in their case) and home field advantage on their side, and conclude that they should be able to earn their second victory of the season. I don’t see it that way - Buffalo should be able to pull out of their nosedive (at least for one week) and get back in the win column. QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, TE Robert Royal, WR Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell should all be started against a very weak Chiefs’ Defense. The only Chiefs worth starting are RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Dwayne Bowe. The Bills’ Defense should also be started.
Tampa Bay at Detroit - For Detroit sports fans 2008 has been the best of times (Red Wings’ Stanley Cup, Pistons reach Eastern Conference finals) and the worst of times (Tigers finish behind the Royals, Lions continue to flounder). Unfortunately for Lions’ season ticketholders (if such a species still exists), this is the first of two home games for the winless Lions in five days. The Lions have become the New York Knicks of the NFL, a laughingstock that can do little more than peddle hope for the future to its disgruntled fanbase (note: New York fans will gladly send Isiah Thomas a one-way ticket back to Detroit). Even with RB Earnest Graham out for the season, the Bucs figure to extend the Lions’ streak of futility. QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Antonio Bryant, Michael Clayton, & Ike Hilliard, and K Matt Bryant are all worth using against a Lions’ Defense that may be even worse than the Chiefs’. Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable - quad) is worth starting if he’s healthy enough to play; if not, WR Shaun McDonald can be used as an emergency fill-in.
San Francisco at Dallas - I recently heard one Cowboys’ fan refer to this game as another bye week. While that may not be technically accurate, the Cowboys do figure to pad their record the next five days with home games against the 49ers and Seahawks. RB Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week. The Cowboys offer plenty of options - QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WRs Terrell Owens (Questionable - illness) & Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense are all worth starting in what figures to be a one-sided contest.
Houston at Cleveland - Though neither of these teams will reach the playoffs this season, this figures to be one of the more entertaining games this week unless you’re a big fan of defenses. For the Texans QB Sage Rosenfels, RB Steve Slaton (Questionable - chest), TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown should all be started. For the Browns QB Brady Quinn (Probable - finger), RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow (Questionable - shoulder), WR Braylon Edwards, and K Phil Dawson are all worth starting.
Carolina at Atlanta - Another game that’s a bit of a head-scratcher. While the Falcons have shown glimpses of being a potent offensive team, their passing game under much-ballyhooed rookie QB Matt Ryan just isn’t consistent enough to rank among the game’s best. Combine that with Carolina’s strong pass Defense, and I believe that the Panthers will be able to shut down a Falcons’ Offense that figures to be one-dimensional. Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WRs Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad, K John Kasay, and the Defense should all be in starting lineups. The list of start-worthy Falcons is considerably smaller: RBs Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood (Questionable - ribs) and WR Roddy White (Questionable - back).
Chicago at St. Louis - With Thanksgiving right around the corner it’s easy to draw parallels between the Rams’ disastrous season and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s recent post-turkey pardoning interview in front of a slaughterhouse - both are train wrecks you could see coming from a mile away, but you can’t help but watch the inevitable outcome with a sense of schadenfreude. Several days ago Rams’ offensive lineman Richie Incognito chose once again not to live up to his last name - he criticized Rams’ fans for their lack of support. Never mind that a 2-8 team that routinely gets blown out hasn’t given their fans much of anything to cheer about this season, with the notable exception of their two-week run against the Redskins and Cowboys that now seems like a distant memory. With Rams’ RB Steven Jackson out again this week with his thigh injury, there are no Rams who should be in your starting lineup this week. For the Bears QB Kyle Orton, RB Matt Forte, TEs Greg Olsen & Desmond Clark, WRs Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis, and Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould, and the Defense all belong in starting lineups this week.
New England at Miami - It’s easy to look at the Patriots’ early-season demolition at the hands of the wildcattin’ Dolphins, the emergence of QB Matt Cassel during last week’s OT loss to the Jets, and the Dolphins’ shaky victories the past two weeks at home against underwhelming Oakland and Seattle teams and conclude that the Patriots should win this game easily. I don’t see it that way, and I like Miami to bounce back from its recent subpar performances and win the rematch too. For the Patriots, Cassel, TE Ben Watson, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski all belong in starting lineups this week. For the Dolphins the list includes QB Chad Pennington, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, TEs Anthony Fasano & David Martin, WRs Greg Camarillo & Ted Ginn, and K Dan Carpenter.
Philadelphia at Baltimore - Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb was widely criticized following last week’s overtime tie with the Bengals for admitting that he didn’t realize that regular season games could end in an overtime tie. While the ensuing vitriol may have pushed McNabb several steps closer to the exit when his contract expires at the end of this season, the real problem for the Eagles has been the ongoing health saga of RB Brian Westbrook. The Eagles’ star RB is listed as Questionable for this week with knee and ankle injuries, but even if he were 100% healthy, he’d be a poor choice to start this week against a Ravens’ Defense that once again appears to be dominant. In fact only TE L.J. Smith and the Eagles’ Defense are worth starting this week for the visitors. The Ravens have been dealing with injury issues of their own (RB Willis McGahee, WR Derrick Mason). Only TE Todd Heap and the Ravens’ Defense are worth starting in what figures to be a very low-scoring game.
Minnesota at Jacksonville - Comedian Al Franken, trailing by a razor-thin margin in his Minnesota Senate race against Norm Coleman, may soon be looking for his next gig. Perhaps the Vikings should hire Franken to wander the stands at their games and bring some laughs to fans that have grown accustomed to watching their team’s games with a knot in their stomach. At the very least he might be able to get Vikings’ coach Ray Childress to shake hands with former Vikings’ (and current Jaguars’) WR Troy Williamson, who has expressed his desire to fight Childress but will be confined to the sidelines this Sunday. For Minnesota QB Gus Frerotte, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Bobby Wade (Questionable - thigh), and K Ryan Longwell are all worth starting. The Jaguars don’t figure to be able to run the ball against the Vikings, but RB Maurice Jones-Drew is still worth starting on the assumption that he’ll catch a number of passes out of the backfield. Other Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, TE Marcedes Lewis, and WR Matt Jones (Questionable - thigh).
Oakland at Denver - Like disgraced Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, Raiders’ owner Al Davis has long overstayed his welcome. While Alaska voters were given the chance every six years to vote Stevens out, Raiders’ fans haven’t been so fortunate. The honeymoon brought about by the Raiders’ return to Oakland in 1995 has long since ended. While it’s easy to pin all the Raiders’ problems on the owner and a merry-go-round of hapless head coaches, the fact remains that there are some talented players on Oakland’s roster. Against a poor Denver Defense QB JaMarcus Russell (Questionable - knee, ankle), RBs Justin Fargas & Darren McFadden (Probable - toe), TE Zach Miller, WR Ronald Curry, and K Sebastien Janikowski can all be started. Denver’s RB situation remains a mess - Peyton Hillis is the flavor du jour, but I wouldn’t start him, even against the Raiders’ weak run Defense. However, QB Jay Cutler, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable - hip) & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater should all be started.
Washington at Seattle - The wheels have begun to come off the charmed ride the Redskins were enjoying under rookie head coach Jim Zorn. Still, the spare tire should have enough air in it to allow Washington to get back in the win column this week against an undermanned Seahawks team. Start QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis (Questionable - knee), TE Chris Cooley, WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El (Questionable - ankle), K Steve Suisham, and the Redskins’ Defense. TE John Carlson is the only Seahawk worth starting this week.
NY Giants at Arizona - Yet another head-scratcher - how will the high-octane Cardinals’ Offense fare against the Giants’ vaunted Defense? While among the league’s statistical leaders, the Giants’ Defense has the potential to give up a lot of points, as they did in games against Cleveland and Philadelphia. The Cardinals’ Defense has flown under the radar this season in posting slightly better-than-average totals, but if the Giants are healthy enough on Offense, this figures to be a high-scoring game. Giants worth starting include QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable - knee), TE Kevin Boss, WRs Plaxico Burress (Questionable - hamstring), Amani Toomer, & Steve Smith. If Jacobs is unable to play, delete him from the list and add RBs Derrick Ward & Ahmad Bradshaw. Cardinals who should be started include QB Kurt Warner, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin & Steve Breaston, and K Neil Rackers.
Indianapolis at San Diego - Neither of these teams can be accused of peaking too soon this season. The Colts’ playoff prospects look better at this point than the Chargers’, but neither has looked like the Super Bowl contender they were expected to be. Defense figures to be an afterthought in this game, so there are plenty of fantasy options on both teams. For the Colts they include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri. Chargers who should be started are QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, and K Nate Kaeding.
Green Bay at New Orleans - Another game that may leave you wondering where the Defenses are. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby should all be started. QB Drew Brees, RBs Reggie Bush (Questionable - knee) & Deuce McAllister (Questionable - knee), TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston (Questionable - knee) & Lance Moore, and K Garrett Hartley should all be started for the Saints.
You’ll notice I’ve recommended a lot of players this week who are listed as Questionable - as always, be sure to check the official injury reports closer to game time to avoid incurring an unnecessary goose egg in your lineup.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa