Fantasy football draft season is in full swing, and many of you have drafts coming up Labor Day weekend.  One “trend” I’ve noticed this season is more and more fantasy football team owners using their first-round draft picks on QBs, with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and even Peyton Manning often being taken by owners wanting to lock in top-tier production from their quarterback spot.  Does it make sense to do this?  Does the time-honored adage “always take a RB in the first round” still hold?  Let’s take a closer look.

There are 2 commonly-used arguments to justify taking a QB in the first round:

1. “Taking a running back in the first round no longer makes sense - there are just too many Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations now, so there are a number of good running backs with the potential to outplay their draft position still left in the middle rounds.”
2. “The top quarterbacks score a lot more points under my league’s scoring system than the top running backs and wide receivers, so it makes sense to take a quarterback first.”

Let’s take a closer look at both these arguments.

In response to the first argument, it’s undoubtedly true that the trend in the NFL over the past few seasons has seen teams moving away from the single workhorse RB approach and going with the RBBC approach instead.  If we define the “single workhorse RB approach” to include all teams for which the lead rusher is projected to gain at least 65%-70% of his team’s rushing yards, then by my count there are 13 teams using the RBBC approach heading into the 2010 season, which is up from 10 teams heading into the 2009 season.

That said, the basic economic principle of supply and demand suggests that when the supply of a desirable commodity (in our case the workhorse running back) goes down, the corresponding demand for that desirable commodity should increase, not decrease.  Thus, it would appear that drafting QBs earlier in response to the decrease in supply of workhorse RBs is exactly the opposite of what should occur.

The second argument is a bit trickier to deal with.  First, let me bring up the idea of “position scarcity”.  Unfortunately, this term is overused and abused in fantasy circles.  To me position scarcity can be defined as the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position.

If you accept this definition of position scarcity, then if you make a list of players’ projected 2010 fantasy points in descending order by position (using your league’s particular scoring system, of course), you’ll almost certainly find that there’s a greater decrease in fantasy values between top-rated and mid-level RBs (or top-rated and mid-level WRs) than there is between top-rated and mid-level QBs.  This will be the case even though the increasing use of RBBCs has increased the fantasy values of mid-tier RBs relative to what they were just a year or two ago.

If that’s the case, the opportunity cost (i.e. - the value of the option you don’t choose when you make a decision) is greater for passing on a RB (or WR) in the first round of a draft than it is for passing on a QB.  In other words, even though QBs generally score more fantasy points than RBs and WRs under many fantasy scoring systems, your fantasy team will be better off overall at the end of your draft if you start out by taking a RB (or a WR) than if you grab one of the top names at QB.

A quick caveat - in order to make this analysis complete, we would need to look at not only supply/demand and position scarcity, but also the relative consistency in actual vs. expected fantasy values among the top options across the different positions.  That consistency, of course, will depend on the particulars of your league’s scoring system, but based on the analysis I’ve done, generally speaking the slightly greater consistency among top QBs vs. top RBs and top WRs is not enough to overcome the supply/demand and position scarcity issues.

So, unless your league has “highly unusual” roster requirements (e.g. - start 2 QBs and 1 RB) or point values (e.g. - 6 points for a passing TD, but only 3 points for a rushing or receiving TD), your fantasy team will still better off at the end of your draft if you take a top-tier RB (or WR) with your first round pick than it will be if you use that same pick on a top-tier QB. 

Wishing everyone a great holiday weekend and good luck in your upcoming drafts! 

The Sherpa

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Still, given that most leagues require you have a defense in your starting lineup, what’s the best way to go about picking one?  The defensive events that produce the most fantasy points (i.e. - defensive and special teams touchdowns) are virtually impossible to predict.  Events such as sacks, fumble recoveries, and interceptions are nearly as difficult to project.  Thus, I find the most useful way to rank team defenses (with or without special teams included) is on the basis of total yards allowed (i.e. - rushing + passing), which is somewhat less random than total points allowed.  Again, this is at best a reasonable proxy - you’ll almost certainly change defenses at least once during the course of a season due to a bye week, and perhaps more often based on your defense’s matchup for a given week.

With all that said here is my ranking of team defenses (with or without special teams) heading into the 2010 season:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore
3. Green Bay
4. Pittsburgh
5. Minnesota
6. Dallas
7. Denver
8. Cincinnati
9. New England
10. Carolina
11. Washington
12. New York Giants
13. Houston
14. Philadelphia
15. San Diego
16. San Francisco
17. Chicago
18. Indianapolis
19. Arizona
20. Miami
21. Buffalo
22. Atlanta
23. Jacksonville
24. Seattle
25. Oakland
26. New Orleans
27. Tennessee
28. Tampa Bay
29. St. Louis
30. Cleveland
31. Kansas City
32. Detroit

One final point about defenses - many fantasy football owners like to draft a backup defense so that they’ll be covered during their primary defense’s bye week and/or have the option of playing matchups each week.  I strongly disagree with this strategy, primarily because of the random nature of a defense’s fantasy value.  It’s very difficult to predict this fantasy value over the course of a season and even more difficult to predict a defense’s fantasy value from week to week.  My recommendation - pick one you’re comfortable with in your draft our auction, ride with it until the team’s bye week, then replace it via free agency.  You may fret that you’re putting the second coming of the Bears’ 1986 defense on waivers, but that’s almost certainly not the case.  The spot you’ll save by not carrying a second defense can be put to much better use by stashing another running back or wide receiver with high upside.

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be on The Twitter Roundtable fantasy football show on Blog Talk Radio tonight between 10-11pm Eastern!  The show is hosted by Jim Day (@FantasyTaz), and the other guests will be Ginny Loveless (@gbginny) & Mike Jones (@mikejones42).

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

This line of thinking is somewhat like the act of buying a put option on a stock you own in order to recoup most of the value of your investment in case the stock’s price does a nosedive.  I say “somewhat” because unlike a put option, there’s no guarantee you’ll recoup any of the value of your fantasy football investment through the use of handcuffs.  This could happen for one of several reasons: (1) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may suffer a significant injury prior to the star running back’s being injured, (2) the star running back’s backup at the time of your draft may lose his spot on the depth chart due to worse-than-expected performance on his part, better-than-expected performance by another running back, or a coach’s inexplicable decision (think Mike Shanahan’s Reign of Terror in Denver), etc, or (3) an injured star running back’s team may change its offensive philosophy after his loss (i.e. - passing more, running less).

Besides the uncertainties associated with the handcuffing strategy, it’s also a bad idea for two other reasons.   The first is the associated opportunity cost (i.e.- the value that’s lost by foregoing other possibilities) that comes with passing on the chance to draft an additional backup at other positions, namely quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end.  Quick - what do Chad Henne, Alex Smith, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, Sidney Rice, Mohammed Massaquoi, Louis Murphy, Mike Sims-Walker, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Brett Celek, and Vernon Davis all have in common?  That’s right - in 2009 they all went undrafted in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, and even in the minority of leagues in which they were drafted, they delivered significantly more fantasy value than you would expect from players taken in the late rounds of a draft. 

Quick - how many “star running backs” (I’ll define that term to mean running backs who were expected to gain more than 2/3 of their team’s rushing yards) missed “significant” time in 2009 (which I’ll define to mean more than 3 games) due to an injury (which does not include foreseeable ineffectiveness and/or ill-advised Tweeting) and were replaced by the expected handcuff?  That’s right - just two:  Jerome Harrison, who replaced Jamal Lewis in Cleveland, and Ricky Williams, who replaced Ronnie Brown in Miami.  By my count there were 22 “star running backs” available to be drafted in 2009, so that’s less than a 10% chance that your handcuff investment paid off last year (warning:  as they say in the investment biz, past performance is no guarantee of future returns).  Meanwhile, you gave up the potential fantasy production you would have received if you’d gotten lucky and speculated on one of the undrafted players listed above.

“Okay,” you say, “but there’s no guarantee that even an extremely knowledgable football fan like me would have had the foresight to pick one of the 14 players you listed above - tear down your straw man!”  Fair enough, which brings me to my final reason for opposing the handcuffing strategy: the trend among NFL teams towards the dreaded Running Back By Committee (RBBC).  Of course, many fantasy football team owners have come to dread the RBBC approach because the NFL teams that use this strategy shrink the supply of “star running backs”.  While that’s certainly the case, the positive side to RBBCs is that they increase the number of available running backs who are better alternatives than the handcuffs to star running backs. 

Case in point - in 2009 by my count 10 of the 32 teams headed into the season with what I would describe as an RBBC approach.  In 2010 that number is up to 13.  Yes, that’s three fewer star running backs available to be drafted, but that’s also three more running backs whose expected payoff is better than that of a handcuff.  Drafting someone who’s currently not the lead back in an RBBC situation still offers significant upside (the secondary back could move ahead of the lead back if the lead back is injured or the secondary back outperforms the lead back), while offering a higher expected return than a clear second-stringer who would be drafted as a handcuff.  The greater the number of fantasy teams or required starting running backs in your league, the more sense it makes to take secondary backs in an RBBC rather than a handcuff.

So put away those handcuffs today, and improve your chances of drafting a winning team in 2010! 

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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So, if predicting Kickers’ fantasy values is a futile exercise, but you still need to pick one (or even two) for your team, what’s the best way to go about it?  I suggest that you rank Kickers in the same order that you should rank teams’ offenses, by total yards (rushing + passing).  There’s certainly a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of yards a team’s offense gains and the number of points it scores, and there’s also a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of points a team scores and the number of points its Kicker scores, but I firmly believe that trying to come up with a better system for ranking Kickers is a huge waste of time.

That said, here’s my ranking of Kickers for the upcoming season (which foreshadows my ranking of team offenses for the upcoming season):

1. Garrett Hartley (NO)
2. Mason Crosby (GB)
3. David Buehler (Dal)
4. Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
5. Kris Brown (Hou)
6. Ryan Longwell (Min)
7. Adam Vinatieri (Ind)
8. Shayne Graham (Bal)
9. Nate Kaeding (SD)
10. David Akers (Phi)
11. Matt Bryant (Atl)
12. Lawrence Tynes (NYG)
13. John Kasay (Car)
14. Mike Nugent (Cin)
15. Nick Folk (NYJ)
16. Josh Scobee (Jac)
17. Jay Feely (Ari)
18. Jeff Reed (Pit)
19. Dan Carpenter (Mia)
20. Rob Bironas (Ten)
21. Robbie Gould (Chi)
22. Graham Gano (Was)
23. Jason Hanson (Det)
24. Ryan Succop (KC)
25. Joe Nedney (SF)
26. Matt Prater (Den)
27. Olindo Mare (Sea)
28. Sebastian Janikowski (Oak)
29. Rian Lindell (Buf)
30. Connor Barth (TB)
31. Phil Dawson (Cle)
32. Josh Brown (StL)

Agree or disagree?  Hit me with your best shot - fire away.

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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I’ll be co-hosting our weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/a7tE70.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.  Tonight we’ll be previewing players on teams in the NFC and AFC North divisions.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow).  We’ll also be hosting a fantasy football league for our show’s listeners - check out our show for the details on how you can match wits with Jana and the Sherpa! 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

I’ll be co-hosting the weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time (that will be our regular time going forward!).  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/9BtP4f.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

In my mind off-the-field issues should be taken into account when you prepare for your fantasy football draft.  I think you need to look at each player and his specific situation.  Was there legal trouble?  Is it a locker room or contract issue?  Has a suspension been handed down?  Is the player a repeat offender?  Things like that will be different for each player.  Obviously, some players will be affected more than others.  A lot of that will depend on what their character and mental toughness are like.  Having a good support system and a stable locker room or team will help as well.  Somebody’s who’s unhappy with their contract or team is a guy I’m likely to stay away from on draft day.  Same goes for a repeat offender with a multi-game suspension to start the season.  Personally, I’d rather draft somebody else and not deal with the shenanigans.  But if you were to not draft every single playe who’s ever had a run-in with the law or a contract problem, that would be a little extreme.  Basically, my advice would be to look at each player and decide for yourself.  Also look at how your draft is going and how your team is shaping up.  Choose wisely for what’s going to fit your needs best and be aware of the potential risks.

Sherpa’s response

If you were to not draft every single player who’s ever had a run-in with the law, you’d never have any Bengals on your team (thank you, thank you - I’ll be here all week).  The contract issue seems like the strongest argument to me:  if a guy misses most or all of training camp, he may be more susceptible to injuries once he returns because he won’t yet be in “football shape”.  Sure, all else being equal I’d rather draft a team of choirboys, but doing so will cause you to pass up on opportunities to draft players who will likely help your fantasy team more.

Sherpa’s view

You’re doing some research in the final hours before your fantasy draft.  The QB you like is in trouble with the law.  The RB you’re eyeing and his movie starlett girlfriend just split up, and the sordid details are plastered all over the tabloids.  Your favorite TE is holding out in hopes of renegotiating his below-maket value rookie contract.  The WR who did so well for you last season seems preoccupied with his new reality show.  The head coach and star player for your sleeper Defense don’t get along.

Should you devalue, or even ignore, players with off-the field issues?  Everyone, regardless of their profession, has non-work-related issues that affect their job performance at least once in awhile.  What distinguishes professional athletes from the rest of us, aside from their freakish physical skills, are (1) the ability to pay money to others to “manage their affairs” (translation: make problems go away), and (2) mental toughness that most of us can only dream about.  You’ll often hear how professional athletes say that the playing field become their “sanctuary” that allows them to set aside their off-the-field concerns, at least temporarily.

My point?  If a player has an injury or an on-field issue (e.g. - an inability to hold onto the football), feel free to lower them in your rankings.  However, if you’re marking them down solely because of off-the-field issues, you’re unnecessarily putting yourself at a serious disadvantage for your draft.

Jana’s response

Sure, actual injuries are going to impact your fantasy football player in a bigger way, but I think it’s crazy to say that off-the-field issues won’t impact them at all.  Some players seem to be more prone to being affected by these things than others.  One of your star players is having trouble with the law?  It’s going to distract him.  If they’re having contract disputes?  That’s definitely going to affect most people.  Don’t decide not to draft a player solely because of off-the-field issues, but I think it’s certainly something you need to take into account and prepare for.  Think twice before you draft them.  If your fantasy team is solid around that player and it won’t hurt your team overall if/when he underperforms, then go ahead and draft him.  But just be aware that it could happen.

Tune in to the “4th & Inches with Jana & The Sherpa” program, Wednesday nights from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio! 

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

If you have any specific topics you’d like the two of us to discuss, please feel free to respond with your suggestion.  Otherwise, sit back, enjoy the show, and let the fireworks begin!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

I’ll be co-hosting our new weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 6-7pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/dlcO9W.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook