The Fantasy Football Sherpa

After a recent experts’ mock draft for a fantasy football magazine, all of the participants (including the Sherpa) were invited to describe their approach to a fantasy football draft.  Here’s the gist of my response (with some extra thoughts included, since I’m not subject to a word count here, just your patience/willingness to read further!):

I’ll generally take Running Backs (RBs) with my first two picks so that I can avoid Running Back by Committee (RBBC) situations.  With more and more teams relying on RBBC, that gives you even more incentive to grab as many RBs not involved in a timeshare as you possibly can early in your draft.  Next, I’ll usually grab the two best available Wide Receivers (WRs) and fill any FLEX spots or remaining RB and WR spots, then start looking at Quarterbacks (QBs).  However, depending on roster requirements, I’d still consider taking backups at RB and WR before selecting my first QB.

I’ll almost always pick my starting QB and all my backups at QB, RB,  and WR before taking my Tight End (TE), Defense (DEF), and Kicker (K).  Fantasy scoring is almost totally random for Ks, and only slightly less so for DEFs; those roster spots should generally be filled last.  Finally, when selecting reserves, I tend to favor unproven players with high ceilings over steady but unspectacular veterans (think Chris Henry (Bengals’ version) vs. Antwaan Randle El).

I’m a huge believer in position scarcity, the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated and mediocre options at each position.  QBs score the most fantasy points in many scoring formats, so some might be tempted to take a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning (or a Tom Brady in 2008) with an early pick.  However, given that the drop-offs are much steeper at RB and WR than at QB, unless you have a highly unusually scoring system it doesn’t make sense to take a QB until after you’ve filled all your starting RB and WR spots.  Don’t waste Bench spots on TEs, Ks, and DEFs - you can almost always find a serviceable alternative in the free agent pool when you need one due to an injury or a bye week.  You’re much better off using those Bench spots on RBs and WRs - you can never have too much depth at those two positions!

Hopefully, I’ll be able to stick to this philosophy during tonight’s experts’ draft at 8pm on Mock Draft Central - we’ll see what happens!

Of course, the most important part of preparing for any fantasy football draft is to make sure that the player rankings you’re using reflect all the unique characteristics of your league.  If the player rankings don’t reflect your league’s # teams, roster requirements, scoring categories, and point values exactly, then you’re potentially putting yourself at a huge disadvantage heading into your draft.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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For those whose fantasy football leagues let fate play a major part in deciding your league champion, this one’s for you.  Holding your league’s championship game during Week 17, when many playoff-bound teams rest their regulars, may make things more interesting (read:  random), but if that’s what you’re up against, then read on.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  You’ll notice that Jim Sorgi is conspicuously absent.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Seneca Wallace.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Chris Henry, Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Donald Lee, Anthony Fasano, Desmond Clark.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Robbie Gould, Neil Rackers, Olindo Mare, Sebastian Janikowski.

Defenses

Seattle, Atlanta.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

Congratulations to those who advanced to the finals in your league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 15 games!  One more challenge to be met before you can be crowned champion of your league and have bragging rights for the next year (or at least until next year’s draft)!  Actually, two more if you happen to be an unfortunate owner with Reggie Bush in your starting lineup.  Since Bush has been placed on Injured Reserve and is done for the season, you’ll need to find a replacement.  Some of you may also be looking for free agents with more favorable matchups than those for the players currently on your roster.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  As was the case last week, any players on this list are just one-week recommendations at this point.

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Tarvaris Jackson, Marc Bulger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell.

Running Backs

DeShaun Foster, Kevin Faulk, Fred Jackson, Lamont Jordan.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Bobby Wade, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Davone Bess, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Sidney Rice, Chris Henry, James Jones.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Billy Miller.

Kickers

Garrett Hartley, Joe Nedney, Josh Brown, Joe Nedney, Jason Hanson, Dan Carpenter, Connor Barth.

Defenses

Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Denver.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

The bye weeks are finally behind us - hurray!  While this may decrease the demand somewhat for week-to-week waiver wire pickups, there are still several important reasons to remain vigilant, if not active:  (1) there’s always the potential that players currently on waivers may improve your team’s starting lineup or your depth, (2) injuries (current or potential) are always a concern, and (3) the team that gets you into your fantasy league’s playoffs isn’t necessarily the same team that will allow you to win your league’s championship - matchups matter! (aka - the Sherpa’s Golden Rule)

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck (LT), Jeff Garcia (LT), Ryan Fitzpatrick (LT), Rex Grossman (ST), Shaun Hill (SPEC), Kerry Collins (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Drew Stanton (SPEC).

Running Backs

Michael Bush (SPEC), Dantrell Savage (SPEC), Ahman Green (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Bobby Wade (LT), Bobby Engram (LT), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Mark Clayton (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC), Brandon Stokley (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Jerry Porter (SPEC), Chris Henry (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Malcom Floyd (SPEC), Justin Gage (SPEC), Koren Robinson (SPEC), Jerheme Urban (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Jordy Nelson (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Alex Smith (LT), Todd Heap (LT), Robert Royal (SPEC), David Martin (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC).

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Nick Folk (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC), Josh Brown (SPEC), Olindo Mare (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (LT), Washington (SPEC), Cleveland (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa