The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Most fantasy football leagues have just one or two weeks left in their regular season.  At this point your team falls into one of three categories:  (1) those that have already clinched playoff berths, (2) those that are still in contention for playoff berths, and (3) those that must relish the opportunity to play spoiler the rest of the season.  No matter which group your team falls into, there’s still plenty of motivation to continue to scour your league’s free agent pool for late-season pickups.

Week 12 was relatively kind to fantasy team owners from an injury perspective - Dolphins’ WR Greg Camarillo and Browns’ QB Brady Quinn are out with season-ending injuries, but chances are you weren’t relying too heavily on either of them (especially Quinn).  The Redskins also cut former league MVP RB Shaun Alexander yesterday, but if you were relying on him to lead you to the fantasy promised land this season, then this blog probably won’t help you much.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT) (i.e. - the rest of the season), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners this week (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again in subsequent weeks.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team this week (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), JaMarcus Russell (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Derek Anderson (SPEC)

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), T.J. Duckett (SPEC), Kenneth Darby (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Davonne Bess (LT), Brandon Jones (ST), Justin Gage (ST), Michael Jenkins (ST), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Ike Hilliard (SPEC), Jabar Gaffney (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC).

Tight Ends

David Martin (LT), Billy Miller (SPEC), Heath Miller (SPEC).

Kickers

Ryan Longwell (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Nick Folk (ST), Phil Dawson (SPEC), Neil Rackers (SPEC), Shaun Suisham (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (ST), Kansas City (ST), Denver (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 5: Cleveland, NY Jets, Oakland, and St. Louis.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Derek Anderson, Brett Favre

Running Backs

Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Stephen Jackson

Wide Receivers

Braylon Edwards, Laveranues Coles, Jericho Cotchery, Torry Holt

Tight Ends

Kellen Winslow

Kickers

Josh Brown
Defenses

None

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton (LT), Chad Pennington (ST), Gus Frerotte - assuming he’s healthy enough to play (ST), Matt Ryan (SPEC), Chad Henne (SPEC)

Running Backs

Correll Buckhalter (ST),  Mewelde Moore (ST), Najeh Davenport - just signed by Pittsburgh (ST), Cedric Benson - just signed by Cincinnati (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Kevin Walter (LT), Devery Henderson (ST), Lance Moore (ST), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Ted Ginn (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (LT), Visanthe Shiancoe (ST), Alex Smith (ST), Robert Royal (ST)

Kickers

Rian Lindell (LT), Shaun Suisham (LT), Ryan Longwell (ST), Matt Bryant (ST)

Defenses

Seattle (LT), Atlanta (ST), Washington (ST), Denver (ST)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa