The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here are the latest batch of players who’ve had their preseason projections updated:

• Sam Aiken (WR, NE) - added to database (moved up depth chart)     
• Richard Angulo (TE, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Devin Aromashodu (WR, Chi) - added to database (moved up depth chart)    
• Todd Bauman (QB, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Michael Bennett (RB, SD) - added to database (moved up depth chart)  
• Troy Bergeron (WR, Atl)  - removed from database (cut) 
• Lorenzo Booker (RB, Phi)  - removed from database (cut)
• Marty Booker (WR, Atl) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Brian Brohm (QB, GB) - removed from database (cut)
• Thomas Brown (RB, Atl) - removed from database (cut)
• Matt Bryant (K, TB) - removed from database (cut)
• Eldra Buckley (RB, Phi) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Aveion Cason (RB, Det) - removed from database (cut)
• Keary Colbert (WR, Det) - removed from database (cut)
• Daunte Culpepper (QB, Det) - revised projections downward (moved down depth chart)
• Ronald Curry (WR, StL) - removed from database (cut)
• Tony Curtis (TE, Phi) - added to database (signed)
• Chris Davis (WR, Ten) - removed from database (cut)
• Carey Davis (RB, Pit) - removed from database (cut)
• Jason Davis (RB, NYJ) - added to database (signed)
• Jeff Dugan (RB, Min) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Julian Edelman (WR, NE) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Dominique Edison (WR, Ten) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Yamon Figurs (WR, Det) - added to database (signed)
• Arian Foster (RB, Hou) - removed from database (cut)
• Sam Gado (RB, StL) - revised projections upward (moved up depth chart)
• Quinton Ganther (RB, Ten) - removed from database (cut)
• Brandon Gibson (WR, Phi) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Earnest Graham (RB, TB) - projections revised downward (moved down depth chart) 
• Cortez Hankton (WR, TB) - removed from database (cut)
• Marcus Henry (WR, NYJ) - removed from database (cut)
• Noah Herron (RB, Cle) - removed from database (cut)
• Kareem Higgins (RB, TB) - removed from database (cut)
• Nate Hughes (WR, Jac) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Chad Jackson (WR, Den) - removed from database (moved up depth chart)
• Darnell Jenkins (WR, Hou) - removed from database (cut)
• Ian Johnson (RB, Min) - removed from database (cut)
• Taurus Johnson (WR, KC) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Mark Jones (WR, Ten) - removed from database (cut)
• Aaron Kelly (WR, Atl) - removed from database (cut)
• Jordan Kent (WR, Sea) - removed from database (cut) 
• John Kuhn (RB, GB) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Keon Lattimore (RB, Dal) - removed from database (cut)
• Jamall Lee (RB, Car) - removed from database (cut)
• Byron Leftwich (QB, TB) - revised projections upward (named starting QB)
• Ashley Lelie (WR, KC) - removed from database (cut)
• Greg Lewis (WR, NE) - removed from database (cut) 
• Brandon Lloyd (WR, Den) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Kregg Lumpkin (RB, GB) - removed from database (cut)
• Dicky Lyons (WR, Atl) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Ruvell Martin (WR, GB) - removed from database (cut)
• Justin McCareins (WR, Ten) - removed from database (cut)
• Luke McCown (QB, Jac) - acquired in trade from TB
• Marcus Monk (WR, Car) - removed from database (cut)
• Devin Moore (RB, Sea) - removed from database (cut)
• Mike Nugent (K, TB) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Jake O`Connell (TE, KC) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Chris Ogbonnaya (RB, StL) - removed from database (cut)
• Kevin Ogletree (WR, Dal) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• David Patten (WR, Cle) - removed from database (cut)
• Alvin Pearman (RB, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Antonio Pittman (RB, StL) - removed from database (cut)
• Brandon Rideau (WR, Chi) - removed from database (cut)
• Ryne Robinson (WR, Car) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Dantrell Savage (RB, KC) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Matt Schobel (TE, Phi) - removed from database (cut)
• Kory Sheets (RB, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Antone Smith (RB, Det) - removed from database (cut)
• Terrell Smith (RB, Det) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Matthew Stafford (QB, Det) - revised projections upward (named starting QB)
• Isaiah Stanback (WR, Dal) - removed from database (cut)
• John Standeford (WR, Det) - removed from database (cut)
• Frank Summers (RB, Pit) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Tyrell Sutton (RB, Car) - added to database (signed) 
• Brett Swain (WR, GB) - added to database (moved up depth chart) 
• Marcus Thigpen (RB, Phi) - removed from database (cut)
• Tiquan Underwood (WR, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Josh Vaughan (RB, TB) - removed from database (cut)
• Justin Vincent (RB, Pit) - removed from database (cut)
• Derrick Ward (RB, TB) - projections revised downward (moved down depth chart)
• Chauncey Washington (RB, Jac) - removed from database (cut)
• Ernest Wilford (TE, Jac) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Cadillac Williams (RB, TB) - revised projections upward (moved up depth chart)
• Jarvarris Williams (RB, KC) - removed from database (cut)
• Danny Woodhead (RB, NYJ) - removed from database (cut)

Please let me know if you see any moves I may have missed, and I’ll be happy to update the database.

More updates to come as developments warrant.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Yahoo! Sports recently hosted a fantasy football draft for the mayors of 11 well-known cities (a league commissioner from Yahoo! is also participating to give the league 12 teams).  Each team is required to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST.  The scoring system is fairly standard (4 pts per passing TD, 1 pt for every 25 yds passing, no points for a reception, etc.)

This contest is for a great cause - the winning mayor gets $15K to donate to the charity of his/her choice!  At the risk of receiving hate mail from 11 Chambers of Commerce, I decided it would be fun to predict the results of this contest using my projections from FantasyFootballSherpa.com.

Here are the participants (City, Mayor):

1. Buffalo (Byron Brown)
2. Green Bay (Jim Schmitt)
3. Kansas City (Mark Funkhouser)
4. Minneapolis (R.T. Rybak)
5. Oakland (Ron Dellums)
6. Oklahoma City (Mick Cornett)
7. Orlando (Buddy Dyer)
8. Pittsburgh (Luke Ravenstahl)
9. Sacramento (Kevin Johnson)
10. San Francisco (Gavin Newsom)
11. Tampa Bay (Pam Iorio)
12. Yahoo! (Oz?)

Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champion - does that give Mayor Luke Ravenstahl an edge?  Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson is a former NBA star - would that knowledge of what it takes to be a successful pro athlete give him an edge?  8 of the 11 cities in the contest currently have NFL franchises - would that give their mayors an edge?

Here’s how I see the contest playing out (cities listed alphabetically by tier):

Leaders of the Pack

1. Buffalo
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (LaDainian Tomlinson & Willie Parker)
     • starting WRs (Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Lance Moore)
     • D/ST (Philadelphia)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Trent Edwards
2. Kansas City 
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook)
     • starting WRs (Roddy White, Wes Welker, Jerricho Cotchery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Earnest Graham, Willis McGahee)
     • WR depth (Jeremy Maclin, Nate Burleson, Amani Toomer)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Matt Cassel
     • WR Amani Toomer (since cut)
     • K Ryan Succup
3. Oklahoma City 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Schaub)
     • starting WRs (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Torry Holt)
     • RB depth (Donald Brown, Felix Jones, Darren Sproles)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
4. Sacramento
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Ryan)
     • starting RBs (Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Zach Miller)
     • WR depth (Deion Branch, Isaac Bruce)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

With a Little Bit of Luck

1. Orlando
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Antonio Gates)
     • RB depth (Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Julius Jones)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting D/ST (Arizona)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
2. Pittsburgh
   • Strengths
     • starting WRs (Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward)
     • WR depth (Kevin Walter, Donnie Avery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Donovan McNabb)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Hines Ward

Stuck in the Middle

1. Green Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting RB (Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas)
     • starting WR (Steve Smith (Car), Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall)
   • Causes for Concern
     • WR depth (Steve Breaston)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Ryan Grant
     • K Mason Crosby
     • Green Bay D/ST
2. Oakland
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams)
     • starting TE (Tony Gonzalez)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting WR (Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Donald Driver)
     • QB depth (Joe Flacco)
     • RB depth (Justin Fargas, Ricky Williams)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Justin Fargas
     • WR Darrius Heyward-Bey

Help

1. Minneapolis
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Phillip Rivers)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Visanthe Shiancoe) 
     • QB depth (Matt Hasselbeck) 
     • RB depth (Cedric Benson)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Bernard Berrian 
     • TE Visanthe Shiancoe
     • K Ryan Longwell
     • Minnesota D/ST
2. San Francisco 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Peyton Manning)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno) 
     • starting WRs (Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Percy Harvin) 
     • WR depth (Domenik Hixon)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Frank Gore
     • TE Vernon Davis
     • K Joe Nedney
3. Tampa Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Chris Cooley)
     • starting D/ST (Pittsburgh)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Ben Roethlisberger) 
     • starting WRs (Terrell Owens, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester) 
     • WR depth (Michael Clayton, Hakeem Nicks)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Michael Clayton
4. Yahoo!
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Drew Brees)
     • starting TE (Owen Daniels)
     • WR depth (Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Smith (NYG), Joey Galloway)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Steven Jackson, Kevin Smith)
     • starting WRs (Roy Williams, Ted Ginn, Derrick Mason)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

In case you’re curious, you can view the rosters and current standings.

So, which mayor will be presenting an oversized check to their favorite charity when the champion is crowned?  With the usual caveats about the unpredictable nature of injuries and their ability to wreak havoc on the strongest of fantasy football rosters, my predicted winner is Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.  Let the games begin!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter 

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa