The Fantasy Football Sherpa

People generally have one of two mindsets when it comes to drafting Kickers for their fantasy football team: (1) take one of the “top Kickers” several rounds before the end of the draft, or (2) wait until the last round or two of your draft to take a Kicker and take “the best Kicker available” (or “any Kicker who’s available and still has a pulse”).  Count me in the second group.  Kickers undoubtedly differ in their innate skill levels, but the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team presents him with far outweighs the importance of the Kicker’s accuracy on 50+ yard field goals in determining his fantasy value.  And predicting the number of opportunities a Kicker’s team is likely to give him is, to put it kindly, nearly impossible.  The opportunity cost of taking a Kicker before the last round far outweighs the potential benefit (at least in this Sherpa’s mind).

So, if predicting Kickers’ fantasy values is a futile exercise, but you still need to pick one (or even two) for your team, what’s the best way to go about it?  I suggest that you rank Kickers in the same order that you should rank teams’ offenses, by total yards (rushing + passing).  There’s certainly a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of yards a team’s offense gains and the number of points it scores, and there’s also a less-than-perfect correlation between the number of points a team scores and the number of points its Kicker scores, but I firmly believe that trying to come up with a better system for ranking Kickers is a huge waste of time.

That said, here’s my ranking of Kickers for the upcoming season (which foreshadows my ranking of team offenses for the upcoming season):

1. Garrett Hartley (NO)
2. Mason Crosby (GB)
3. David Buehler (Dal)
4. Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
5. Kris Brown Neil Rackers (Hou)
6. Ryan Longwell (Min)
7. Adam Vinatieri (Ind)
8. Shayne Graham Billy Cundiff (Bal)
9. Nate Kaeding (SD)
10. David Akers (Phi)
11. Matt Bryant (Atl)
12. Lawrence Tynes (NYG)
13. John Kasay (Car)
14. Mike Nugent (Cin)
15. Nick Folk (NYJ)
16. Josh Scobee (Jac)
17. Jay Feely (Ari)
18. Jeff Reed (Pit)
19. Dan Carpenter (Mia)
20. Rob Bironas (Ten)
21. Robbie Gould (Chi)
22. Graham Gano (Was)
23. Jason Hanson (Det)
24. Ryan Succop (KC)
25. Joe Nedney (SF)
26. Matt Prater (Den)
27. Olindo Mare (Sea)
28. Sebastian Janikowski (Oak)
29. Rian Lindell (Buf)
30. Connor Barth (TB)
31. Phil Dawson (Cle)
32. Josh Brown (StL)

Agree or disagree?  Hit me with your best shot - fire away.

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that my “sleeper pick” for fantasy football Week 9 has been included in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entry in the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  This entry is a regular feature on Thursdays throughout the football season!

Have a great weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Thankfully, the Week 6 schedule features fewer obvious mismatches than Week 5 did.  Here are my recommendations:

Houston at Cincinnati - The Texans may have lost a heartbreaker last weekend in Arizona, but you certainly can’t blame WR Andre Johnson, who acquitted himself well in his personal battle with Cardinals’ WR Larry Fitzgerald for the unofficial title of “Best Wide Receiver in the NFL”.  Unfortunately for Houston, their road trip continues this week with a game against the Bengals’ vastly improved run defense, which has given up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game so far this season.  Combine that with the Texans’ inability to run the ball so far, and you can expect QB Matt Schaub to be putting the ball in the air 45-50 times.  Predictably, pinball-like scores may result.  Texans to start this week include Schaub, RB Steve Slaton (who figures to play a big part in the passing game), TE Owen Daniels, WRs Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.  WR Jacoby Jones can also be started in deeper leagues.  Bengals to start against the Texans’ subpar defense include rejuvenated QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WR Chad Ochocinco, and K Shayne Graham.  WRs Laveranues Coles & Andre Caldwell can also be started in deeper leagues.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - You had to wonder how focused the Browns were heading into their game last week against the Bills.  First, the Browns traded the troubled but talented Braylon Edwards midweek.  Then Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan made ill-advised comments about the Bengals’ game-winning overtime field goal the previous week (the outlandish gene must run in the family).  Surprisingly, the Browns were able to pull it together and defeat the equally inept Buffalo Bills 6-3.  The resurgent RB Jamal Lewis (Questionable-hamstring) and his teammates will try to build a winning streak against a Steelers’ defense that suffered another blow this week when DE Aaron Smith was lost for the rest of the season with a torn rotator cuff.  Still, I would recommend not starting Lewis or any other Browns this week.  If you play in a deep league and are truly desperate, then go ahead and take a chance on QB Derek “2 for 17″ Anderson and WR Mohamed Massaquoi, who probably wishes Edwards were still around to attract some of the defensive attention he’ll now be facing weekly.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  Do not start RB Willie Parker (Probable-toe).

St. Louis at Jacksonville - Speaking of bad teams facing distractions, it appears that talk show host Rush Limbaugh’s dream to become a part-owner of the Rams is DOA.  The good news for the Rams is that they’re facing a struggling Jaguars team that was shut out by the Seahawks last week.  Jacksonville has shown an inability to stop the pass this season, so count on Rams’ QB Marc Bulger to take to the air early and often.  Rams to start this week include Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, TE Randy McMichael, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown.  The Jaguars should find the Rams’ defense equally accommodating,  so make sure that QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Mike Sims-Walker & Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee are in starting lineups this week.

Kansas City at Washington - From the fun but useless information department comes this interesting tidbit:  the Redskins are the first team in NFL history to play their first six games against teams that were winless at the time.  Even if you’re not impressed by the fact that the Giants were winless going into their first game of the season, when you realize that the Redskins are just 2-3 in spite of this favorable schedule, it’s easy to see why many are down on Head Coach Jim Zorn.  At the risk of going out on a long limb, I predict the Redskins will get back to .500 by winning “the battle of the teams with politically incorrect Native American-related names”.  Chiefs to start include RB Larry Johnson and WR Dwayne Bowe.  Add QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles, and TE Sean Ryan to the list if you’re in a deep league.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis (Questionable-calf), TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.

Carolina at Tampa Bay - Panthers’ QB Jake Delhomme is suffering through a brutal season so far - the completion percentage isn’t bad, but the TD/INT (3/8) ratio is the opposite of what you’d want to see.  Still, Delhomme has proved in the past that he has a sense of humor, so hopefully he’s still optimistic about his chances to build on his team’s come-from-behind victory over the Redskins last week.  Panthers to start this week include Delhomme, RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Questionable-Achilles’), WR Steve Smith, K John Kasay, and the Defense.  Add WR Muhsin Muhammed to the list if you’re in a deep league.  RB Cadillac Williams is the only Buccaneer I’d start this week, although if you’re in a deep league, QB Josh Johnson and RB Derrick Ward are also worth considering.  Do not start RB Earnest Graham (Probable-hamstring) or WR Antonio Bryant (Questionable-knee).

New York Giants at New Orleans - It’s hard to believe, but it’s already been four years since the last time the Giants were scheduled to play in New Orleans.  Sadly, Hurricane Katrina reminded us all of the relative insignificance of a football game.  Although the contest was moved to the Meadowlands, the Saints wore their home jerseys that night, and the Saints generally appreciated the outpouring of emotion directed their way (well, maybe not Joe Horn, perhaps because there weren’t any cellphones in the goalposts).  While these two undefeated teams both feature a number of offensive weapons, I expect the defenses to dominate in this game.  The Giants’ Defense should be started, but QB Eli Manning (Questionable-foot), RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle/foot), and WR Steve Smith should be started only by those without more favorable options this weekend.  The only Saints to start include RB Pierre Thomas (Questionable-hamstring), TE Jeremy Shockey, and the Defense.  That’s right - I’d leave QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, and WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, & Robert Meachem on the bench this weekend unless you have no other options.

Baltimore at Minnesota - Hard as it may be to believe now, there was a time last winter when it appeared possible that Ravens’ LB Ray Lewis and Vikings’ QB Brett Favre would be teammates.  Instead, Lewis and his mates will spend Sunday afternoon trying to chase down the 40-year-old legend, who’s 5-0 for the first time in his illustrious career.  Fortunately for Lewis and the rest of the Ravens, second-year QB Joe Flacco has played at a high level this season and should be in lineups this weekend.  Other Ravens to start include RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, and WRs Derrick Mason & Mark Clayton.  Leave RB William McGehee on your bench this weekend.  Vikings to start include Favre, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, and WR Bernard Berrian.  RB Chester Taylor and WRs Sidney Rice & Percy Harvin can also be started in deeper leagues.  No, you’re not missing anything - I would advise against starting All-Universe RB Adrian Peterson this weekend because I don’t think he’ll be successful running the ball against the Ravens’ defense (yes, I believe Cedric Benson’s performance against the same defense last weekend was a fluke).

Detroit at Green Bay - For a number of years the Lions have served as one of the NFL’s laughingstocks.  That seems to be changing in a hurry.  Two weeks ago they ended their 19-game losing streak.  Last week they gave the defending Super Bowl champions a competitive game.  QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable-knee), RB Kevin Smith, TE Brandon Pettigrew (Probable-hamstring), and WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-thigh) form an exciting young core group of players.  If Stafford and Johnson are healthy enough to play this week, the Lions may also give the Packers a run for their money.  Lions to start this week include Smith, Pettigrew, Johnson, and K Jason Hanson.  If he plays, add Stafford to the list in deeper leagues, along with WR Brandon Johnson.  If Stafford isn’t able to play, substitute backup QB Daunte Culpepper’s name for Stafford’s in the previous sentence.  Packers worth starting include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.  Add TEs Jermichael Finley & Donald Lee to the list in deeper leagues.

Philadelphia at Oakland - Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell is often accused of being overweight, which gives him something in common with former Ralph Lauren model Filippa Hamilton.  The Raiders have looked like the worst team in the NFL so far this season, and that doesn’t figure to change this week.  Eagles to start include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE Brent Celek (Probable-knee), WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense.  I would not recommend starting any Raiders this week, no matter how deep your league is.

Arizona at Seattle - Tim Hasselbeck is best known as a career backup QB, the co-host of ESPN’s Sunday morning fantasy football show, and the husband of The View co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck.  Older brother Matt Hasselbeck has put together an underappreciated career as the Seahawks quarterback.  Hasselbeck showed no signs of being affected by his broken ribs last week during Seattle’s whitewashing of Jacksonville, so this game figures to be an aerial shootout.  Cardinals to start include QB Kurt Warner, WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, & Steve Breaston (Questionable-knee), and K Neil Rackers.  RB Tim Hightower can be started in deeper leagues.  I would leave RB Chris Wells on the bench until Arizona gets him more involved in their running game.  Seahawks to start include Hasselbeck (Probable-ribs), TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson (Questionable-back), and K Olindo Mare.

Tennessee at New England - Surprisingly, I haven’t seen anyone yet referring to the Titans as the best 0-5 team in NFL history.  Tennessee has officially crossed the point of no return for its 2009 season, and their struggles figure to continue this weekend against the Patriots.  Even if Head Coach Jeff Fisher were to switch quarterbacks this week, the only Titan I’d start this weekend is RB Chris Johnson.  The Patriots may not be able to run much against Tennessee, so don’t spend time trying to figure out whether RB Sammy Morris will continue to get more carries than RB Laurence Maroney - neither should be in your lineup this week.  However, there are a number of Patriots who should be started Sunday:  QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulder really?!?), WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker (Questionable-knee), K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RB Kevin Faulk and TE Ben Watson.

Buffalo at New York Jets - Sign of the times:  you know an NFL coach is officially on the hot seat when a website with the URL “FireJohnDoe.com” springs up.  Bills’ Head Coach Dick Jauron, you are officially on the hot seat (no need to thank me - I do it as a public service).  There are no Bills I consider must-starts this week, although if you’re in a deeper league RBs Fred Jackson & Marshawn Lynch and the Defense can be started.  Jets worth starting include RBs Thomas Jones & Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WR Braylon Edwards, and the Defense.  I would stay away from QB Mark Sanchez and WR Jericho Cotchery (Questionable-hamstring) in this matchup.

Chicago at Atlanta - If the football thing doesn’t work out for Falcons’ WR Roddy White, I’m sure Ringling Bros. would hire him as an acrobat.  White is also an arbiter of opponents’ celebrations, as he cut short a premature one in last week’s game by 49er Dre’ Bly.  I don’t think the Bears will be celebrating at the end of their Sunday night showdown with the Falcons, but they still have a number of start-worthy options this week:  QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Garrett Olsen, and K Robbie Gould.  Those in deeper leagues can also try to sort through the Bears’ mess at wide receiver and start Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, or Earl Bennett.  Falcons to start include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White, and K Jason Elam (Probable-hamstring).  RB Jerious Norwood and WR Michael Jenkins can also be started in deeper leagues.

Denver at San Diego - Some throwback jerseys are undeniably classy.  Then there are the monstrosities worn last weekend by the Broncos in their game last week against the Patriots.  Thankfully, unlike ice skating, there are no points deducted in the NFL for “presentation”.  In spite of the talented offensive players on both teams, I’m predicting this game will be a defensive struggle.  The only Broncos I’d start would be RB Knowshon Moreno and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Kyle Orton and WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal.  The only Chargers I’d start would be TE Antonio Gates and the Defense.  Those in deeper leagues can also start QB Philip Rivers and WR Vincent Jackson.  I would avoid Charger RBs LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

Lots of mismatches and a few interesting contests on tap for Week 5.  Here are my recommendations:

Cleveland at Buffalo - With Wednesday’s trade of enigmatic WR Braylon Edwards to the Jets it’s pretty obvious who’s calling the shots in Cleveland.  Unfortunately for the Browns, neither the players nor the draft picks they received from the Jets are likely to alter the course of this once-proud franchise.  The best their fans can hope for in this case is the proverbial “addition by subtraction”.  Sadly, this weekend’s game against the struggling Bills is almost certainly the Browns’ best chance for a victory prior to their Nov. 22 contest in Detroit, a game in which they would now figure to be the underdogs.  The only Brown who should be in starting lineups this weekend is RB Jerome Harrison, although QB Derek Anderson and WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Mike Furrey can be started by those in deeper leagues.  Avoid RB Jamal Lewis (Questionable-hamstring), even if he is healthy enough to play.  Buffalo figures to be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against Cleveland’s defense.  QB Troy Edwards, RBs Fred Jackson & Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans & Terrell Owens, and the Bills’ Defense should all be started. 

Cincinnati at Baltimore - Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco has recently been making more news for his Twitter account than he has for his exploits on the field.  That may change this weekend against a Ravens’ pass defense that isn’t as good as you might think.  The Bengals don’t figure to have much success running against the Ravens, giving them even more incentive to take to the air.  QB Chad Palmer and WRs Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles are all worth starting.  Avoid RB Cedric Benson (Questionable-hip) even if he is healthy enough to play.  The Ravens’ offense has unexpectedly transformed itself into the “Air Flacco” show.  Accordingly, QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, K Steven Hauschka, and the Defense should be in starting lineups.

Washington at Carolina - The official word from the Redskins is that this week’s hiring of offensive guru Sherm Lewis is meant to provide Head Coach Jim Zorn with “a fresh set of eyes”.  Unfortunately for Zorn, it’s difficult to see this as anything other than the beginning of the end of his tenure as Head Coach.  Zorn, Lewis, and the rest of the ‘Skins should get a reprieve this weekend in the form of a date with the Panthers’ porous defense.  QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense should all be started.  The only Panthers worth starting are RB DeAngelo Williams and WR Steve Smith, although RB Jonathan Stewart (Questionable-Achilles’) can also be started in deeper leagues if he’s healthy enough to play.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia - Besides his on-field exploits, Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb is also well-known for the series of Chunky Soup commercials he and his mom have filmed (yes, that’s the late, great Harry Kalas on the voice-over).  Unfortunately for McNabb, Campbell’s still hasn’t come up with a flavor that will make a cracked rib heal faster.  Unfortunately for the visiting Bucs, it doesn’t figure to make much difference who starts at quarterback for the Eagles this week; the visitors figure to come out on the short-end of the score yet again.  The only Buc who should definitely be in your starting lineup this week is TE Kellen Winslow.  RBs Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward (Probable-knee) can be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid RB Earnest Graham (Questionable-hamstring) and WRs Antonio Bryant (Questionable-knee) & Michael Clayton (Questionable-ribs).  For the Eagles, McNabb (Probable-ribs), RB Brian Westbrook (Probable-ankle), TE Brent Celek, WR DeSean Jackson, K David Akers, and the Defense should all be started.  If QB Kevin Kolb is forced to start again in place of McNabb, substitute him for McNabb on this list.  RB LeSean McCoy can also be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid WR Kevin Curtis (Probable-knee) even if he’s healthy enough to play.

Oakland at New York Giants - While it’s obvious the Raiders could use an upgrade over QB JaMarcus Russell, former Raider QB (and now former Eagle QB) Jeff Garcia recently took himself out of the running.  I know this will come as a shock to all of you, but there are no Raiders I’d recommend for your starting lineup this weekend.  If you’re in a deep league, RBs Michael Bush & Justin Fargas can be started, and if the Giants are forced to start QB David Carr in place of QB Eli Manning (Questionable-foot), you can add the Raiders’ Defense to that list.  If Manning is healthy enough to play, he’s definitely worth starting, but if Carr is forced to start, do the smart thing and stay away.  Either way, RBs Brandon Jacobs & Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle, knee) are worth starting, as are TE Kevin Boss, K Lawrence Tynes, and the Defense.  I would avoid starting WR Steve Smith this weekend if you have other options with favorable matchups.  Smith will likely be shadowed by Raiders’ shutdown CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and especially if Carr is the quarterback, you’ll want nothing to do with Smith this week.

Minnesota at St. Louis - If you happened to miss last Monday night’s showing of “Revenge Game - Favre Gets Even”, fear not.  You can have your own Skybox Suite on the 30 yard line at Lambeau Field (seats 20) for November 1st’s “Revenge Game - The Return of Favre” for a mere $35,000.  The Vikings don’t have their official bye week until Week 9, but they have something almost as taxing this weekend - a game against the Rams, who figure to battle the Raiders all season long for the first choice in next April’s draft.  Vikings to start include QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, K Ryan Longwell, the Defense, and the equipment manager.  RB Chester Taylor and WRs Percy Harvin & Sidney Rice can also be started in deeper leagues.  The only Rams I’d consider starting are RB Steven Jackson and TE Randy McMichael.  If WR Donnie Avery (Questionable-hamstring) is able to play, he should be started in deeper leagues.  No matter whether the Rams decide to go with QB Marc Bulger (Questionable-shoulder) or QB Kyle Boller (Questionable-judgment), you don’t want either one within a country mile of your roster, much less your starting lineup.

Dallas at Kansas City - Cowboys’ QB Tony Romo is used to having his intelligence questioned publicly.  Whether it’s his taste in women, his play selection late in tight games, or even his ability to count to four, Romo is a lightning rod for criticism.  Fortunately, Romo and his teammates get a reprieve this weekend in the form of a date with the winless Chiefs.  Cowboys to start include Romo, RB Marion Barber (Probable-thigh), TE Jason Witten, K Nick Folk, and the Defense.  Add WR Roy Williams (Questionable-ribs) to the list if he’s able to play.  If Williams is unable to play, then WR Patrick Crayton should be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid starting RBs Felix Jones (Questionable-knee) and Tashard Choice.  Chiefs to start include RB Larry Johnson, TE Sean Ryan, and WR Dwayne Bowe.  QB Matt Cassel can be started in deeper leagues.

Pittsburgh at Detroit - Daunte Culpepper is likely to be the Lions’ starting quarterback on Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, and the Lions have sold out the game.  No, the two facts are not related (or at least I hope they aren’t).  I suspect this may end up being a de facto ninth home game for the visitors, but if that allows the good citizens of Detroit to watch Culpepper overthrowing his receivers on live television, then so be it.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, K Jeff Reed, and the Defense.  Avoid RB Willie Parker (Questionable-toe) even if he is able to play.  The only Lions worth starting are TE Brandon Pettigrew and WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-thigh), assuming the latter is healthy enough to play.  Avoid RB Kevin Smith (Probable-shoulder) and the Lions’ starting quarterback, whether that turns out to be Culpepper or Matthew Stafford (Questionable-knee).

Atlanta at San Francisco - Parties to a stalled negotiation are often encouraged to “think outside the box”, but representatives of the 49ers and newly-signed rookie WR Michael Crabtree may have taken this advice to new extremes by including M.C. Hammer in the talks that resulted in Crabtree’s signing.  Hammer’s role in the negotiations is unclear, but Crabtree’s role in this weekend’s game against the Falcons is crystal clear:  none.  The 49ers have already announced Crabtree won’t play until Week 7 at the earliest, and it’s unwise to count on him contributing anything substantial to your fantasy team in 2009.  Leave him to someone else in your league to speculate on.  Falcons to start this weekend include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WR Roddy White.  WR Michael Jenkins can be started in deeper leagues.  Avoid K Jason Elam (Questionable-hamstring).  49ers to start include RB Glen Coffee, TE Vernon Davis, and K Joe Nedney.  If you’re in a deeper league, then QB Shaun Hill and WRs Josh Morgan & Isaac Bruce are also worthy starters.

New England at Denver - The Broncos have already had two improbable game-winning receptions this season on their way to a 4-0 record, one each by WRs Brandon Stokley and Brandon Marshall.  Incredibly, the Broncos have yet another wide receiver named Brandon on their roster, but their luck will run out this weekend as they suffer their first defeat at the hands of the visiting Patriots.  Patriots to start include QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulderthanks, Mr. Belichick), TE Ben Watson, WR Randy Moss, K Stephen Gostkowski, and the Defense.  Add WR Wes Welker (Questionable-knee) to the list if he’s able to play; add WR Julian Edelman to the list if Welker can’t play.  RB Fred Taylor (Out-ankle) may be done for the season, but since his replacement isn’t clear (my guess would be Laurence Maroney), don’t speculate, and leave all Patriot running backs out of your lineup this weekend.  The only Bronco definitely worth starting is Marshall, although QB Kyle Orton and RB Knowshon Moreno can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Correll Buckhalter (Questionable-ribs) and WR Eddie Royal out of your lineups.

Houston at Arizona - Some will look at this matchup as a battle for wide receiver supremacy between Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  Others will look at two teams with explosive offenses and mediocre defenses and wonder whether the 2009 Texans may be capable of following in the 2008 Cardinals’ footsteps and ending their season with an appearance in the Super Bowl.  I prefer to look at it as a game that could well be the most entertaining contest of the weekend.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniel, WRs Johnson & Kevin Walter, and K Kris Brown.  Cardinals to start include QB Kurt Warner (Probable-shoulder), WRs Fitzgerald & Anquan Boldin, and K Neil Rackers.  Add WR Steve Breaston (Questionable-knee) to the list if he’s healthy enough to play.  RBs Tim Hightower and Chris Wells can also be started in deeper leagues. 

Jacksonville at Seattle - When Seattle last hosted a game at Qwest Stadium, their lime-colored alternate jerseys sent many viewers scurrying for the remote.  Hopefully, the Seahawks’ marketing department was given this week off, and the team will take the field in their regular bland jerseys.  While this game may not feature quite the offensive firepower of the Texans-Cardinals game, it also figures to be a high-scoring contest.  Jaguars to start include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Mike Sims-Walker & Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee.  QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-ribs) looks likely to return this week, and he should be started if he does in order to take advantage of a very favorable matchup.  Ditto for Seahawks’ backup QB Seneca Wallace if Hasselbeck suffers a setback and is unable to play.  Other Seahawks to start include TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, and K Olindo Mare.

Indianapolis at Tennessee - With the Titans off to an 0-4 start speculation has already begun on how soon Head Coach Jeff Fisher will replace quarterback of the past Kerry Collins with quarterback of the (past and) future Vince Young.  While the Titans will undoubtedly be fired up for this Sunday night contest, in all likelihood they will fall to 0-5 against a Peyton Manning-led offense that is hitting on all cylinders in spite of the absence of WR Anthony Gonzalez (Questionable-knee).  Colts to start include Manning, TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and K Adam Vinatieri.  RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown and WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie can also be started in deeper leagues.  The only Titan I’d definitely start would be RB Chris Johnson, although Collins, RB LenDale White, and WRs Justin Gage & Kenny Britt can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave WR Nate Washington (Probable-concussion) on the bench.

New York Jets at Miami - Brett Favre’s feud with the Packers has nothing on Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan’s feud with Dolphins’ LB Channing Crowder.  Unfortunately, only one from that pair will be able to get on the field to determine the game’s outcome, but at least the media will have something to talk about besides the game itself.  The other story that figures to get a lot of play during the ESPN telecast is the Jets’ acquisition of troubled WR Braylon Edwards (will we be subjected to a Braylon-cam?).  Edwards figures to make a minimal contribution this week even if he does start, so leave him out of your starting lineup unless you have no other alternatives.  Jets to start include RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and the Defense.  QB Mark Sanchez can also be started in deeper leagues.  Leave RB Thomas Jones out of your lineups for this matchup with a tough Dolphins’ run defense.  The only Dolphins worth starting are RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams and the Defense (I’d be surprised if the winner of this game scores more than 21 points).  Since QB Chad Henne figures to struggle against the Jets’ defense, leave him and all Dolphins’ receivers on the bench this week.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

Week 4 of the NFL season is history, and we’re dealing with both injuries and the second of seven bye weeks.  Teams with a Week 5 bye are Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Diego.  Players with injuries or a bye week include

QB

• Matt Hasselbeck (inj)
• Eli Manning (inj?)
• Matthew Stafford (inj?)
• Marc Bulger (inj)
• Jay Cutler (bye)
• Aaron Rodgers (bye)
• Drew Brees (bye)
• Philip Rivers (bye)

RB 

• Frank Gore (inj)
• Darren McFadden (inj) 
• Correll Buckhalter (inj) 
• Mike Bell (inj, bye)
• Jamal Lewis (inj)
• Felix Jones (inj)
• Matt Forte (bye)
• Ryan Grant (bye)
• Pierre Thomas (bye)
• LaDainian Tomlinson (bye)
• Darren Sproles (bye)

WR 

• Roy Williams (inj?) 
• Devin Hester (bye)
• Johnny Knox (bye)
• Earl Bennett (bye)
• Greg Jennings (bye)
• Donald Driver (bye)
• Marques Colston (bye)
• Vincent Jackson (bye)

TE

• Greg Olsen (bye)
• Jeremy Shockey (bye)
• Antonio Gates (bye)

K 

• Robbie Gould (bye)
• Mason Crosby (bye)
• John Carney (bye)
• Nate Kaeding (bye)

 DEF

• Chicago
• Green Bay
• New Orleans
• San Diego

So, who are some players at each position who should be on your radar screen if you need a replacement?  The following list contains players who may not be available in your league, depending on the number of teams in your league and your roster requirements.  LT indicates players who may have fantasy value for the rest of the season, while ST indicates players whose fantasy usefulness is likely to be limited to the amount of time it takes a player ahead of them on the depth chart to recover from an injury/return from a suspension.  SPEC indicates a player whose fantasy worth may not be obvious now, but may be worth speculating on for use later in the season.

Quarterbacks

Shaun Hill (LT), Seneca Wallace (ST), Daunte Cullpepper (ST), Kyle Boller (ST), Josh Johnson (ST), Chad Henne (SPEC), Kevin Kolb (SPEC), Derek Anderson (SPEC), David Carr (SPEC), Vince Young (SPEC), Josh Freeman (SPEC), Tyler Thigpen (SPEC), and Matt Leinart (SPEC).

Running Backs

Jerome Harrison (LT), Michael Bush (ST), Justin Fargas (ST), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Jerious Norwood (SPEC), Rashad Jennings (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Laurence Maroney (SPEC), Ryan Moats (SPEC), Shonn Greene (SPEC), Justin Forsett (SPEC), Bernard Scott (SPEC), Aaron Brown (SPEC), Marcus Mason (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Donnie Avery (SPEC), Louis Murphy (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Muhsin Muhammad (SPEC), Mohamed Massaquoi (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Julian Edelman (SPEC), Kenny Britt (SPEC), Davone Bess (SPEC), Earl Bennett (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC), Kelley Washington (SPEC), Bryant Johnson (SPEC), Bobby Wade (SPEC), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Sammie Stroughter (SPEC), Nate Washington (SPEC), Sidney Rice (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Robert Meachem (SPEC), Jeremy Maclin (SPEC), Keenan Burton (SPEC), Greg Camarillo (SPEC), Deion Branch (SPEC), Austin Collie (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss (LT), Sean Ryan (SPEC), Ben Watson (SPEC), Chris Baker (SPEC), Brandon Pettigrew (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC).

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Rian Lindell (ST), Joe Nedney (ST), Adam Vinatieri (ST), Jeff Reed (ST), Josh Scobee (ST).

Defenses

Washington (ST), Buffalo (ST).

I’ll post my analysis of the Week 5 games on Thursday.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Lots of injuries to deal with and the first of the 7 bye weeks as we head into Week 4.  Here are my recommendations:

Detroit at Chicago - It just seems like every celebrity with a Chicago connection is in Coopenhagen for the International Olympic Committee’s vote on the host city for the 2016 Summer Games (what, no Ditka?).  Regardless of the outcome of the IOC’s vote Friday, the Windy City should be celebrating a Bears’ victory over the Lions Sunday afternoon.  WR Calvin Johnson is the only Lion who should definitely be started, although if RB Kevin Smith (Questionable - shoulder) is healthy enough to play, he should also be started.  If Smith is unable to play, then RB Maurice Morris should be started by those in deeper leagues, as should QB Matthew Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and WR Bryant Johnson.  Bears to start include QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Garrett Olsen, K Robbie Gould, and the Defense.  If you’re in a deeper league or dealing with bye week holes in your lineup, WRs Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, & Johnny Knox can also be started.

Oakland at Houston - Oakland Head Coach Tom Cable’s world is not a happy place right now.  His team is 1-2 (with the victory coming over the equally hapless Kansas City Chiefs), his quarterback JaMarcus Russell is showing no signs of improving in his third season, and oh, in case you haven’t heard, he’s in a bit of legal trouble too.  Hostile work environment or not, Coach Kimbo Cable and his merry band of Raiders will be in Houston this week looking to slow down the Texans’ aerial attack.  TE Zach Miller is the only Raider who should be in starting lineups this weekend, although if you’re in a deeper league RBs Darren McFadden & Michael Bush can be started too.  Texans to start include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniels, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter, K Kris Brown, and the Defense.   

Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio is another Head Coach who’s been in the news lately for non-football-related activities:  he recently put a stop to QB David Garrard’s fledgling career as a radio personality.  While Garrard’s stint as a talk show host probably aren’t to blame for Jacksonville’s 1-2 start, he figures to have just as much fun watching film of the Titans’ pass defense (or lack thereof) heading into this matchup.  Titans to start include QB Kerry Collins (going against the Jaguars’ equally passive pass defense), RB Chris Johnson, WR Justin Gage, and K Rob Bironas.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider starting RB LenDale White and WRs Kenny Britt & Nate Washington.  Jaguars to start include Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WRs Torry Holt & Mike Sims-Walker, and K Josh Scobee.

Tampa Bay at Washington - As if the embarrassment of helping the Lions end their 19-game losing streak last weekend weren’t enough, the calls for the end of the Jim Zorn Era have increased in volume.  In a sign of how the season has gone this far for 0-3 Tampa Bay, RB Cadillac Williams (Probable-knee) is the healthiest of their three running backs (Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham are both listed as Questionable).  Williams and TE Kellen Winslow are the only players who should be started from the Bucs, who have decided to end the Byron Leftwich Era after just three games.  Second-year QB Josh Johnson gets the start, but before you get too excited, realize that he’s probably just keeping the seat warm for rookie QB (and fellow Josh) Freeman, who figures to be starting at some point later this season.  Redskins to start include QB Jason Campbell, TE Chris Cooley, WR Santana Moss, K Shaun Suisham, and the Defense.  If Clinton Portis (Questionable-calf) is able to play, he should also be started.  If he isn’t, then RB Ladell Betts should start in deeper leagues.

Baltimore at New England - Outside of QB Tom Brady predicting which Patriot players are going to have fantasy value from one week to the next is a bit like watching the old game show The New Treasure Hunt.  Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco has looked impressive through three weeks, but will he continue to shine against the tough Patriots’ defense, or will he become this week’s fantasy football version of a booby prize?  My bet would be on the former, and I would start him this week along with RB Ray Rice, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and K Steve Hauschka.  I don’t believe RB Willis McGahee will be able to hold his fantasy value going forward, but if you’re in a deeper league or have a lineup spot to fill due to a bye week, by all means plug him in.  The only Patriots I’d consider must-starts this week are Brady and K Stephen Gostkowski.  TEs Ben Watson & Chris Baker can be started by those in deeper leagues, while WRs Randy Moss (Questionable-back), Wes Welker (Questionable-knee), & Julian Edelman should only be in your starting lineups if you’ll be able to make changes if needed right before Sunday’s kickoff.

New York Giants at Kansas City - While Peyton Manning, quarterback of the 3-0 Indianapolis Colts, is still generally acknowledged as the superior quarterback, little brother Eli Manning, quarterback of the 3-0 Giants has been playing well enough to revive the comparisons.  The Giants, playing their third consecutive road game, should have little trouble attacking the Chiefs’ defense both on the ground and through the air.  Giants to start include Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Kevin Boss, WRs Steve Smith & Mario Manningham, K Lawrence Tynes, and the Defense.  Avoid RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Questionable-ankle/foot).  With WR Dwayne Bowe (Questionable-hamstring) likely to miss his second straight contest, there are no Chiefs I’d recommend for your starting lineup this week.  Depending on bye weeks and how deep your league is, you may be forced to consider QB Matt Cassel, RBs Larry Johnson & Jamaal Charles, and WRs Bobby Wade & Mark Bradley, but for your sake, I certainly hope that’s not the case.

Seattle at Indianapolis - Am I the only person who’s surprised Seahawks’ kicker Olindo Mare still has a job this week?  Sure, Seahawks Head Coach Jim Mora subsequently backed away from his initial rant after Mare missed two field goals in last week’s loss to the Bears, but for a minute it looked like he was going to challenge his father’s infamous “Playoffs” rant for family supremacy in the “Blowing a Gasket” category.  It looks as though Seahawks’ QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-ribs) will miss yet another week, so QB Seneca Wallace can be started, along with RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh & Nate Burleson, and Mare.  Colts to start include QB Peyton Manning, RBs Joseph Addai & Donald Brown, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Pierre Garcon, and K Adam Vinatieri.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - Back in 2006 Eric Mangini was the toast of New York after leading the Jets to the playoffs in his first year as Head Coach.  But the days when even Tony Soprano would go out of his way to meet the “Mangenius” are quickly becoming a distant memory.  Unlike their cousins in “On the Clockdom”, the Lions, it’s hard to see anything positive about the future of football in Cleveland at this stage.  Bengals to start against Team Inept include QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles, K Shayne Graham, and the Defense.  WR Braylon Edwards’ prospects may improve slightly with QB Derek Anderson taking over the reigns from QB Brady Quinn; Edwards is the only Brown I’d want in my starting lineup this week.  Those facing byes or playing in deeper leagues should also consider starting Anderson, RB Jerome Harrison, and WR Mike Furrey.

Buffalo at Miami - The Bills’ preparations for this game have been overshadowed by two sideshows:  (1) the return of RB Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch, and questions about how this will affect RB Fred Jackson’s playing time, and (2) the silly, pointless feud between WR Terrell Owens and former player/current NBC studio analyst Rodney Harrison.  All of the nonsense threatens to eclipse what should be one of the weekend’s more entertaining games.  Bills to start include QB Trent Edwards, WRs Lee Evans & Owens, and K Rian Lindell.  Those in deeper leagues should also consider RBs Jackson & Lynch, and WR Josh Reed.  New Dolphins’ QB Chad Henne should be started along with RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, WRs Ted Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter.

New York Jets at New Orleans - Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez has had an amazing year already:  winning the Rose Bowl, appearing in GQ, and becoming the first rookie in NFL history to win his first three starts.  Still, even the most diehard of Jets’ fans has to realize that Sanchez will not win every game he starts for the J-E-T-S (I’ll spare you the rest).  Reality will most likely hit this weekend, as the Jets travel to face the Saints and QB Drew Brees(y) in the Big Easy.  In spite of both teams’ defenses being ranked in the top 10 through three games, I expect this to be a fairly high scoring game (perhaps 34-21) with the Saints prevailing.  Jets to start include Sanchez, RB Leon Washington, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jerricho Cotchery, and K Jay Feely.  I’d stay away from RB Thomas Jones because I don’t think the Jets will be able to run the ball successfully, but those in deeper leagues s hould also consider WR Chansi Stuckey.  Saints to start include Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Marques Colston, and K John Carney.  WRs Devery Henderson & Robert Meachem can also be started by those in deeper leagues.

St. Louis at San Francisco - The Rams have looked so woeful in losing their first three games that one wonders whether even Captain Sullenberger could guide them to victory.  RB Steven Jackson and TE Randy McMichael are the only Rams you should consider for your starting lineup this week.  QB Marc Bulger (Questionable-shoulder) is unlikely to play, but even if he does, you should avoid starting him unless you’re in the deepest of leagues.  Same story with his potential replacement, QB Kyle Boller, WR Donnie Avery (Questionable-ribs), and WR Keenan Burton.  Someone will have to catch passes for the Rams this week besides Jackson and McMichael, but at the moment it’s not clear who.  49ers to start include QB Shaun Hill, replacement RB Glenn Coffee, TE Vernon Davis, WRs Isaac Bruce & Josh Morgan, K Joe Nedney, and the Defense.

Dallas at Denver - Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones, apparently not content to be out of the news when his team is playing away from its new pleasure palace, has proclaimed that RB Marion Barber (Probable-thigh) will play this week.  Perhaps Barber truly is healthy after missing Monday night’s victory over the Panthers, and perhaps Jones is just launching a pre-emptive strike against Barber’s “softness”.  Either way, I would avoid starting Barber this week unless I were in a deep league and didn’t have other options.  Since RB Felix Jones (Questionable-knee) will most likely miss this week’s game, that leaves RB Tashard Choice as a must-start almost by default, along with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten, WRs Roy Williams & Patrick Crayton, and K Nick Folk.  Broncos to start include QB Kyle Orton, RBs Knowshon Moreno & Correll Buckhalter, WRs Eddie Royal & Brandon Marshall, and K Matt Prater.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - Speaking of running backs and injuries, “Not So Fast” Willie Parker’s career has been marred by them, although thankfully he’s never had an injury like the one suffered by USC tailback Stafon Johnson.  Parker (Questionable-toe) turned in one of his better recent efforts last weekend in the Steelers’ heartbreaking loss to the Bengals, but appears unlikely to play Sunday night.  The Chargers know a thing or two about running back injuries themselves - RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Questionable-ankle) may try to play this week, but he’s unlikely to be effective against the Steelers’ run defense.  The Chargers figure to emphasize their passing game, so start QB Philip Rivers, RB Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson, and K Nate Kaeding.  Steelers to start include QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller, WRs Hines Ward & Santonio Holmes, and K Jeff Reed.  Parker replacement RB Rashard Mendenhall is also worth starting in deeper leagues.

Green Bay at Minnesota - Former Packers’ quarterback/current Vikings’ quarterback Brett Favre can claim that he’s not out for revenge in this contest, but that’s probably just a case of semantics (which is my diplomatic way of saying “I don’t buy it”).  Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has no need to be fueled by revenge, but he figures to spend most of his time throwing the ball rather than testing the Vikings’ tough run defense.  Packers to start include Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (who figures to be active in the passing game), WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason Crosby.  Vikings to start include Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WRs Bernard Berrian & Percy Harvin, and K Ryan Longwell.  RB Chester Taylor and WR Sidney Rice can also be started in deeper leagues.

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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