Hi everyone!
Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be on Jim Day’s Twitter Roundtable fantasy football show on Blog Talk Radio tonight between 10-11pm Eastern along with Ben Ice & Mark Gram.
Hope you’re able to tune in!
Scott (The Sherpa)
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
Hi everyone!
Just wanted to let you know that the new weekly fantasy football show I’ll be co-hosting will air tonight for the first time on Blog Talk Radio from 6-7pm Eastern time. Here’s the link you can use to listen: http://bit.ly/bK7Btu. The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.
My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation. You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow), or by using the Blog Talk Radio website’s chat room.
If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program. The show will also be available as a free download from the iTunes store, so you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax!
Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know.
Hope you’re able to tune in!
Scott (The Sherpa)
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
Dave Cymerman of TheFantasyGeek.com recently did a writeup for a 2010 fantasy football industry league we’re both in: http://bit.ly/dbp2zM
This draft was part of the proceedings at the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s recent conference in Chicago.
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
Fantasy Football SherpaThe Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
Thanks to Pat Mayo of RotoCommunity for having me on as a guest for his Blog Talk Radio show last Saturday! http://bit.ly/bURtNM
The first 45 minutes or so we talked about fantasy baseball, but for the next 10 minutes we discussed some of the recent NFL trades and their impact on the upcoming fantasy football season.
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook
In a sure sign that summer is coming to an end, the NFL season kicks off tonight in Pittsburgh. Hard to believe that when the last NFL regular-season games were played, George W. Bush was still President, Michael Jackson was still alive, and no one was talking yet about “death panels” or attending health care town hall meetings with shotguns (ironic, no?).
Each week I’ll take a look at the upcoming NFL matchups from a fantasy perspective. At the risk of stating the obvious, my recommendations are necessarily general in nature - if you’re in a league with 20 teams that starts 12 players per week, in all likelihood you’ll have to start some players you wouldn’t think about starting in a 10-12 team league that starts 9 players per week. Also, in a forum like this it’s impossible to tailor recommendations to the myriad of scoring systems that exist.
Although a market for them definitely exists, I’m also highly critical of sites that claim to project players’ fantasy points on a weekly basis - that’s just nonsense. Yes, fantasy owners are much more interested in point estimates than in ranges of outcomes, but if you don’t understand the limits of the information you’re using, you’re likely to misuse it. There’s so much variation around a player’s “expected points” for a week that the expected results themselves are practically useless. No one can tell you with anything remotely approaching a high degree of certainty whether Clinton Portis will score more fantasy points this week than Brandon Jacobs or vice versa. To pretend otherwise is doing a disservice to your audience.
That being said, the one thing I can promise you is that I won’t be afraid to make recommendations that go against conventional wisdom when I feel they’re called for. Many fantasy experts will advise you to “always start your studs” - I’m not one of them. If you’re an Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees owner and they have a particularly tough matchup in a given week, you may actually be better off starting a Ray Rice or Jake Delhomme instead. I don’t expect you to agree with or follow all of my recommendations, but at the very least, hopefully I’ll give you some food for thought.
Without further ado, here are my recommendations for Week 1 on the road to Super Bowl XLIV:
Tennessee at Pittsburgh - I don’t expect much scoring in this game from either side - the Defenses should dominate. The Titans have a pair of talented RBs (Chris Johnson & LenDale White), but neither of them is a good play this week. The only Titans I would start this week are TE Bo Scaife and the Defense. I’m slightly more optimistic about the Steelers’ offensive players’ prospects, but only because I don’t have a good sense for the impact of Albert Haynesworth’s departure and Kyle Vanden Bosch’s return on the Titans’ defensive line. Steelers worth starting include RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, WR Hines Ward, and the Defense.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Both offenses should have success moving the ball against the opposing Defense, but I suspect Indianapolis will have more success and win the game fairly easily. Jaguars worth starting include QB David Garrard, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Torry Holt, and K Josh Scobee. Colts worth starting include QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne & Anthony Gonzalez, and K Adam Vinatieri.
Detroit at New Orleans - As with the previous game I believe both offenses will move the ball successfully, but I expect the home team to win by a substantial amount. Lions’ rookie QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson figure to develop into a top fantasy combo for years to come, and both are worth starting this weekend. RB Kevin Smith, rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Bryant Johnson, and K Jason Hanson are also good starts. If you have to submit your weekly fantasy lineups before the Titans-Steelers game, I would assume that New Orleans RB Pierre Thomas will not play, so leave him out of your lineups. Saints’ QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, WRs Marques Colston & Lance Moore, and K John “Methuselah” Carney should all be in lineups for this favorable matchup.
Philadelphia at Carolina - While both teams feature potentially explosive offenses, I expect Philadelphia’s Defense to outplay Carolina’s, resulting in an Eagles’ victory. Eagles worth starting include QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE Brent Celek, WRs DeSean Jackson & Kevin Curtis, K David Akers, and the Defense. The only Panther I’d start this week is WR Steve Smith.
Dallas at Tampa Bay - The Cowboys are finally playing in Tampa, but their rabid fans would have rather been in The Big Guava back in February for Super Bowl XLIII. At least Punters Mat McBriar and Dirk Johnson won’t have to worry about kicking the ball into a scoreboard . . . Tampa’s defense features some talented players, but their offense will probably have a hard time staying on the field, leading the defense to wear down as the game progresses. Cowboys worth starting include QB Tony Romo, RBs Marion Barber & Felix Jones, TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams, K Nick Folk, and the Defense. The only Buccaneer I’d consider starting is TE Kellen Winslow.
New York Jets at Houston Texans - Much has been made in the New York City press about the proverbial “change in attitude” that new Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan has brought to town. Like his father, Buddy, Ryan is very down-to-earth and gives great interviews. He’s also brought several players with him from his Ravens’ defense, most notably LB Bart Scott. Still, with rookie QB Mark Sanchez and a WR corps that lost its top option (Laveranues Coles) to free agency without replacing him, I expect the Jets to struggle mightily on offense this year and be picking near the start of the draft next April. The Texans, on the other hand, are a team genuinely on the upswing, and if QB Matt Schaub can finally stay healthy for a full season, I believe they’ll represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIV. The only Jet I’d start this week is TE Dustin Keller, whom I believe will emerge as one of the NFL’s top pass-catching Tight Ends after a promising rookie season. Texans worth starting include QB Matt Schaub, RB Steve Slaton, TE Owen Daniel, WR Andre Johnson, K Kris Brown, and the Defense. Texans’ WR Kevin Walter is listed as Questionable - if you need to submit your lineup for the full slate of games before tonight’s game, I’d err on the side of caution and assume that he won’t play this weekend.
Kansas City at Baltimore - Many would look at this game and label it as a mismatch in Baltimore’s favor - I don’t believe that’s the case. Baltimore’s defense lost several players, as well as Coordinator Rex Ryan, during the off-season, and their offense, which was mediocore last season, doesn’t appear to have improved much. The big question mark for the Chiefs is at Quarterback - Matt Cassel is listed as Questionable. Even though backup QB Tyler Thigpen filled in admirably last season, he’d be playing without standout TE Anthony Gonzalez this season. Chiefs who are worth starting are RB Larry Johnson, WR Dwayne Bowe, and the Defense. The only Ravens I’d start are TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and the Defense.
Denver at Cincinnati - There will be two defenses on the field for this game Sunday, but the final score may have you questioning whether either of them actually showed up. Even though the Broncos will be sporting new starters at several key offensive positions, they figure to get off to a fast start against the Bengals’ defense. Although QB Kyle Orton and rookie RB Knowshon Moreno are both listed as Questionable on the injury report, indications are that Orton will play, but Moreno won’t. Broncos who should be started include Orton, RB Correll Buckhalter (assuming he starts in place of Moreno), WRs Brandon Marshall & Eddie Royal, and K Matt Prater. Bengals who should be started include QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Laveranues Coles, and K Shayne Graham. This doesn’t figure to be one of FOX’s featured games Sunday, but it could easily turn out to be one of the most entertaining. Marshall and Ochocinco may actually garner attention for their football talent rather than their off-field dramatics.
Minnesota at Cleveland - For better or worse Vikings’ Head Coach Brad Childress has put his team’s fate in the hands of drama queen Brett Favre. For better or worse Browns’ Head Coach Eric Mangini has put his fate in the hands of . . . well, we’re not sure yet. Reports indicate that Mangini has chosen Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson as his starting Quarterback, but good luck getting Mangini to confirm that. I don’t buy the notion that adding Favre makes the Vikings’ a Super Bowl contender, but they figure to get their season off to a good start in this matchup. Vikings to start include Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, WR Bernard Berrian, K Ryan Longwell, and the Defense. If you’re in a deeper league (i.e.- more than 12 teams), RB Chester Taylor and rookie WR Percy Harvin may also be worth starting. The only Brown worth starting this week is WR Braylon Edwards, who figures to catch his share of passes this season no matter which Browns’ QB is flinging them. Hopefully, he’ll hold onto some of those passes this season too.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons - Both these teams took a major step forward last season and finished 11-5, but I expect them to move in opposite directions in 2009. I don’t expect Dolphins’ Quarterback Chad Pennington to stay healthy for a second consecutive season, which indicates that “Quarterback of the Future” Chad Henne will find himself the Quarterback of the Present at some point this season. The Dolphins won’t revert to their 1-15 form of 2007, but I don’t expect them to make the playoffs again this season either. The Falcons are a different story - they are my pick to win this year’s Super Bowl. I believe they will emerge as the top offense in football this season, and the infusion of youth into their defense should also pay big dividends. It may take the Falcons’ defense a good part of the season to come together, so Dolphins worth starting this week include Pennington, RB Ronnie Brown, TE Anthony Fasano, WRs Tedd Ginn & Davone Bess, and K Dan Carpenter. Falcons worth starting this week include QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Anthony Gonzalez, WRs Roddy White & Michael Jenkins, and K Jason Elam.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants - Both teams feature suspect offenses and stout defenses, so this figures to be a low-scoring game, just as last year’s season-opener was. Redskins worth starting include TE Chris Cooley and the Defense. Giants worth starting include TE Kevin Boss and the Defense. Not much to see or discuss here - let’s keep moving.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals - I’ve seen many football “experts” predicting the Steelers will repeat as Super Bowl champs, but I’ve yet to see anyone predict a rematch of Super Bowl XLIII. That implies that most of these same experts are skeptical about the Cardinals’ ability to repeat last season’s success. Count me among them. Some will point to the departure of former Cardinals’ Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley, who’s know the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. I think the more likely culprit will be Quarterback Kurt Warner’s inability to stay healthy for a second consecutive season. I’m probably in the minority in believing that Matt Leinart can still be a successful NFL quarterback, but I don’t see it happening this season. Much of the positive buzz surrounding the 49ers has to do with Head Coach Mike Singletary’s “winning ways”. Unfortunately, being a star on the 1985 Chicago Bears doesn’t guarantee success as a coach in 2009. 49ers’ RB Frank Gore figures to have a good game Sunday and is worth starting, but he’s the only San Francisco player I like this weekend. Cardinals worth starting include Warner, RB Tim Hightower (no, I’m not sold yet on Chris “Beanie” Wells in spite of his preseason performance), WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, & Steve Breaston, K Neil Rackers, and the Defense. The Cardinals won’t repeat as NFC champs, but they’ll get their season off on the right foot (my apologies to you Joe Nedney fans out there).
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks - These two teams combined to win all of 6 games last season, so it’s reassuring to know that one of them will start the 2009 season 1-0 (wait, Donovan McNabb just reminded me of the possibility of overtime ties during the regular season!) Their combined win total could double this season, but if it does, it figures to be the Seahawks contributing the (sea?) lions’ share of that improvement now that Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is back in the saddle again. Call it symbolic, but Rams’ QB Marc Bulger is already banged up heading into the season (injured pinkie on his throwing hand). The Rams figure to rely heavily on RB Steven Jackson (as long as he remains healthy), and he should be started this week. Other Rams to start include TE Randy McMichael, WR Donnie Avery, and K Josh Brown. Seahawks to start include Hasselbeck, RB Julius Jones, TE John Carlson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and K Olindo Mare.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers - Ever since Brett Favre shocked the world last month by coming out of retirement to play for the Vikings, Packers’ fans have had November 1st circled on their calendars - that’s the Sunday that #4 returns to Lambeau Field to face the team that he led to a Super Bowl victory what seems like 30 years ago. Favre obviously holds no animosity towards his former team, so let the lovefest begin. However, first the Packers have to contend with another division rival, led by the equally loveable Quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler, Running Back Matt Forte, and Tight End Greg Olsen are undeniable talents, but will the Bears’ receiving corps be able to keep pace? The Devin Hester Project enters Year 3 - results remain inconclusive. Both defenses feature household names (at least if you live in the Urlacher or Hawk households), but I still expect a high-scoring contest. Bears to start include Cutler, Forte, Olsen, Hester, and K Robbie Gould. Packers to start include QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant (one of my favorite “sleepers” for this season), TE Donald Lee, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, and K Mason “Taken!” Crosby.
Buffalo at New England - Are you ready for some football (squared)? Barring any hurricanes or other “acts of God”, the first Monday night of the season is the only one to feature two games for your local watering hole’s viewing pleasure. Regardless of whether they love or despise the Patriots, many football fans (Marshawn Lynch among them?) will tune in Monday night to see if The Brady Bundchen can return to their 18-1 heights of 2007. In spite of the recent nonsense culminating in the firing of former Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert, I still expect the Bills to contend for a wild card playoff spot this season. While both defenses figure to improve as the season progresses, I expect a shootout in this game (with the Bradys winning). Bills to start include QB Trent Edwards, fill-in RB Fred Jackson, WRs Terrell Owens & Lee Evans, and K Rian Lindell. Patriots to start include Brady, RB Fred Taylor (isn’t he older than John Carney???), TE Chris Baker, WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, and K Stephen Gostkowski.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders - The second Monday night game features a team many people feel will be a Super Bowl contender (I’m not among them) versus a team many people feel will never be a Super Bowl contender again until Owner Al Davis “ceases to be involved” (I’m definitely among them). Perhaps roughhousing Raiders’ Head Coach Tom Cable will invite LaGarrette Blount to give a pregame pep talk to get the Raiders fired up. On second thought, that’s about as likely as Chargers’ Linebacker Shawne Merriman inviting Tila Tequila to give a pregame pep talk to get the Chargers fired up. Chargers worth starting include QB Philip Rivers, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates, WRs Vincent Jackson & Chris Chambers, K Nate Kaeding, and the Defense. The only Raider I’d start (and only if I had to) would be TE Zach Miller. In deeper leagues you may also want to start Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden, but since he’ll be part of a Running Back By Committee situation and he’s going against the Chargers’ defense, hopefully you have better options.
That concludes my thoughts on this week’s games. Making predictions about the opening weekend of the NFL season feels a bit like being blindfolded and swinging wildly at a dangling pinata, but that’s the nature of the beast. Preseason football has next to no predictive value (does anybody really expect the Lions to win 75% of their games this season?), so those of us who engage in this weekly exercise have little more to go on at this point than our own analysis and hunches. Hopefully, as the season unfolds, the weight will shift away from the hunches and towards the analysis. Feel free to remind me if my recommendations don’t work out - you know where to find me!
Until next time,
The Sherpa
The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
After a recent experts’ mock draft for a fantasy football magazine, all of the participants (including the Sherpa) were invited to describe their approach to a fantasy football draft. Here’s the gist of my response (with some extra thoughts included, since I’m not subject to a word count here, just your patience/willingness to read further!):
I’ll generally take Running Backs (RBs) with my first two picks so that I can avoid Running Back by Committee (RBBC) situations. With more and more teams relying on RBBC, that gives you even more incentive to grab as many RBs not involved in a timeshare as you possibly can early in your draft. Next, I’ll usually grab the two best available Wide Receivers (WRs) and fill any FLEX spots or remaining RB and WR spots, then start looking at Quarterbacks (QBs). However, depending on roster requirements, I’d still consider taking backups at RB and WR before selecting my first QB.
I’ll almost always pick my starting QB and all my backups at QB, RB, and WR before taking my Tight End (TE), Defense (DEF), and Kicker (K). Fantasy scoring is almost totally random for Ks, and only slightly less so for DEFs; those roster spots should generally be filled last. Finally, when selecting reserves, I tend to favor unproven players with high ceilings over steady but unspectacular veterans (think Chris Henry (Bengals’ version) vs. Antwaan Randle El).
I’m a huge believer in position scarcity, the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated and mediocre options at each position. QBs score the most fantasy points in many scoring formats, so some might be tempted to take a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning (or a Tom Brady in 2008) with an early pick. However, given that the drop-offs are much steeper at RB and WR than at QB, unless you have a highly unusually scoring system it doesn’t make sense to take a QB until after you’ve filled all your starting RB and WR spots. Don’t waste Bench spots on TEs, Ks, and DEFs - you can almost always find a serviceable alternative in the free agent pool when you need one due to an injury or a bye week. You’re much better off using those Bench spots on RBs and WRs - you can never have too much depth at those two positions!
Hopefully, I’ll be able to stick to this philosophy during tonight’s experts’ draft at 8pm on Mock Draft Central - we’ll see what happens!
Of course, the most important part of preparing for any fantasy football draft is to make sure that the player rankings you’re using reflect all the unique characteristics of your league. If the player rankings don’t reflect your league’s # teams, roster requirements, scoring categories, and point values exactly, then you’re potentially putting yourself at a huge disadvantage heading into your draft.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Hard to believe that football training camps start up again next month, along with the accompanying frenzy over fantasy football!
If you can’t wait until next month to get your fantasy football fix, come on over tonight at 8pm Eastern to Mock Draft Central’s second Experts’ Draft of the season! If you prefer live commentary with your fantasy football mock drafts, be sure to listen to FantasyPros911’s Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco, as they provide play-by-play on Blog Talk Radio.
I’ll be picking eighth in a 12-team snake draft format. This mock draft will use Points Per Reception (PPR) scoring with the following roster spots:
In case you’re interested, here’s a list of tonight’s participants and draft order:
Hope you’re able to watch and/or listen!
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
Here are some thoughts on games and players for Week 2’s games:
Chicago at Carolina - Not much to like in this game from a fantasy perspective - I expect a fairly low-scoring game. With Bears’ RB Matt Forte’s ankle bothering him, I’d bench him if you have healthier options. QB Kyle Orton will probably be forced to throw more than he did in Week 1, but I’d still stay away from both him and his WRs. TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen should be the primary beneficiaries if Orton does throw more, but since they split time and catches, I’d stay away from both. On the Panthers’ side, I expect all of their offensive players to struggle; I’d stay away from all of them. Week 1 star Dante Rosario is questionable with a foot injury, so find another option for this week. Both Kickers (Robbie Gould for the Bears; John Kasay for the Panthers) are decent options, as they may each get several field goal opportunities.
Tennessee at Cincinnati - A tough game to figure. Ordinarily, you’d expect a backup QB, even one as experienced as Kerry Collins to struggle in his first start of the season; however, this is the Bengals’ defense we’re talking about here. Still, RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson, along with TE Alge Crumpler figure to rack up decent fantasy stats in this game. Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer will almost certainly look better than he did last week against the Ravens; he’s worth starting, as are his dynamic duo of WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco. Both Kickers (Titans’ Rob Bironas and Bengals’ Shayne Graham) are worth starting this weekend, but I’d avoid both defenses.
Green Bay at Detroit - Both offenses figure to be productive on Sunday. For the Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Donald Lee, and WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are all worth starting. If RB Ryan Grant’s hamstring is healthy enough to allow him to play, he’s also worth starting. For the Lions QB Jon Kitna, RB Kevin Smith, and WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are all worth starting. Both Kickers (Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and Detroit’s Jason Hanson) are also worth starting. In anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.
Buffalo at Jacksonville - I believe that Bills’ QB Trent Edwards will put up good, but not great, fantasy numbers this year, and if you’re looking for a replacement for injured QBs Tom Brady or Vince Young, he’s definitely worth a free agent claim. Still, this is probably not the weekend to start him. Start Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch, but stay away from the Bills’ receivers. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries, which may limit the effectiveness of QB David Garrard and RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, but they’re still all worth starting. TE Marcedes Lewis and WR Matt Jones should also produce decent fantasy numbers this weekend. Jacksonville Kicker Josh Scobee and the Jaguars’ defense are also worth starting.
Oakland at Kansas City - Two weak offenses against two seemingly weaker defenses. Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell, RBs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, TE Zach Miller, and WRs Ronald Curry and Javon Walker are worth starting. Do not be fooled by WR Ashley Lelie’s TD reception last weekend - with Walker returning, his playing time figures to decrease significantly. Chiefs’ Head Coach Herm Edwards has spoken this week about instituting a QB platoon with starter Brodie Croyle out, so steer clear of both Damon Huard and Tyler Thigpen (not that you had either of them on your roster anyway!). Assuming that Huard gets the start this week, RB Larry Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, and WRs Dwayne Bowe and Devard Darling are all worth starting. If you have roster space, Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles is also an intriguing pickup under the assumption that Johnson may not stay healthy for the entire year. Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Sebastian Janikowski for the Raiders; Nick Novak for the Chiefs), but I’d avoid both defenses.
Indianapolis at Minnesota - Hard to believe that one of these supposed Super Bowl contenders will start the season 0-2. Expect Colts’ QB Peyton Manning to shake off the rust this weekend and have a big game facing the Vikings’ secondary. Assuming that Manning is able to throw effectively, RB Joseph Addai also figures to be in for a big game. WRs Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez are all worth starting, but I’d stay away from TE Dallas Clark this week due to injury concerns. For the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is the only start-worthy option this weekend. The Colts’ defense and Kicker Adam Vinatieri are also good starts this weekend.
NY Giants at St. Louis - Reports of the Rams’ offensive demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even without a legitimate second WR to throw to, I’d expect QB Marc Bulger to bounce back from his disastrous showing last weekend. RB Steven Jackson, WR Tory Holt, and TE Randy McMichael are also worth starting. For the Giants QB Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Plaxico Burress all figure to have big days against a weak Rams defense. Once again, both Kickers are worth starting (Josh Brown for the Rams; John Carney for the Giants), but I’d avoid both defenses.
New Orleans at Washington - Another game that figures to be an offensive shootout. Even with star WR Marques Colston out for the Saints, QB Drew Brees, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, and WR David Patten should all be started this weekend. Do not start Saints’ RB Deuce McAllister or WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem unless you are in a very deep league and don’t have other options. For the Redskins QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley, and WRs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are all worth starting. Both Kickers are worth starting (Martin Gramatica for the Saints; Steve Suisham for the Redskins), but I’d avoid both defenses.
San Francisco at Seattle - Seattle has been decimated by injuries, which makes this game tough to analyze. This is the week where we find out if Seahawks’ RB Julius Jones has anything left in his tank - I’d start him on the assumption that he does. QB Matt Hasselbeck is worth starting, and since he’s got to complete passes to someone,TE John Carlson and WR Courtney Taylor are also worth starting in deeper leagues. If any NFL team has a weaker pair of QBs than the 49ers’ J.T. O`Sullivan and Shaun Hill, I’m hard-pressed to name them (KC, perhaps?) 49ers’ RB Frank Gore is worth starting, and if you’re really desperate TE Vernon Davis and WR Bryant Johnson also figure to catch a few passes each. Seattle’s Kicker (Olindo Mare) and defense are both worth starting too.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Will the real Falcon team please stand up? Is it the team that looked impressive (at least on offense) last weekend against the defensively challenged Lions? Or is it the team that most experts figured would be in for yet another losing season due to a Swiss cheese defense? I still vote for the latter. QB Matt Ryan is worth a speculative add if you have room on your roster, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to look as good this week facing the Buccaneers’ defense. RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are worth starting, and if you’re in a deeper league WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are too. With Brian Griese taking the reigns from Jeff Garcia at QB for Tampa Bay, I’d avoid all of the Bucs’ offensive players this week (even facing a Swiss cheese defense!), even RB Earnest Graham and WR Joey Galloway. Expecting a low-scoring game I would avoid both Kickers but start either Defense.
Miami at Arizona - If you’re looking for a Tom Brady replacement in a deeper league, you could certainly do worse than Miami QB Chad Pennington or Arizona QB Kurt Warner. I’d prefer Warner over Pennington simply because he has better receivers to throw to, but both are worth starting this weekend against suspect defenses. The Dolphins’ RB situation continues to be muddled - I’d avoid starting either Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown this weekend unless I had no other options. I suspect Brown will eventually prove to be the more effective of the pair, but that’s still no reason to start him this weekend. Along with Pennington, WR Ted Ginn and TE Anthony Fasano are worth starting this week. I’m not a fan of Cardinals’ RB Edgerrin James in spite of his 100-yard game last weekend against the 49ers, but he’s worth starting against the Dolphins’ defense. If you have room on your roster, rookie Arizona RB Tim Hightower is worth a speculative pickup. WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both worth starting this week (as they are every week), as are Kicker Neil Rackers and the Cardinals’ defense.
San Diego at Denver - Another potentially high-scoring game. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and TE Antonio Gates should all be starting this weekend on your roster. I’d avoid the inconsistent WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson unless you’re in a deeper league and don’t have other options. For the Broncos QB Jay Cutler, RB Selvin Young, and WR Brandon Marshall are all worth starting this weekend. I’m not sold on WR Eddie Royal yet, but if you already own him, chances are you’ll start him this weekend to see whether he can have another big day with Marshall back to divert the Charger defense’s attention. I’d stay away from both defenses, but Kickers Matt Prater for the Broncos and Nate Kaeding for the Chargers are both worth starting.
New England at NY Jets - Finally, a week without Tom Brady being listed on the Patriots’ injury report with a sore shoulder! No one can say for certain how the Patriots’ offense will react after practicing with new starting QB Matt Cassel for a full week. Unless you picked him up as a replacement for Tom Brady or Vince Young, I wouldn’t start him this week. He may prove to be a viable fantasy option as the weeks go by, but probably not this week. Given the uncertainty in the Patriots’ backfield, I’d avoid both RBs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris this week as well. WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still worth starting, even with Cassel at quarterback, and TE David Thomas (who may start for Ben Watson) may also do well this weekend, given that he’s probably more familiar with Cassel than the other Patriots’ receivers. On the Jets’ side I’m still not counting on Brett Favre putting up fantasy results worthy of a starter, and I’d avoid him this weekend unless you have no other options. The only Jets’ offensive players I like this weekend are WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Chris Baker. Expecting a low-scoring game, I’d stay away from both Kickers but start either defense.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Let me be (one of) the first to jump off the Browns’ bandwagon - at least for this week! While not every team (check that, maybe no other team) is as talented as the Cowboys, the Steelers still figure to do well against a questionable Browns’ defense. QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie Parker, TE Heath Miller, and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should all be starting this weekend if they’re on your roster. For Cleveland QB Derek Anderson, RB Jamal Lewis, TE Kellen Winslow, and WR Braylon Edwards are all worth starting, but don’t expect any of them to lead your team to victory this week. Both Kickers are worth starting this weekend (Jeff Reed for the Steelers; Phil Dawson for the Browns), as is the Steelers’ defense.
Philadelphia at Dallas - I expect a high-scoring game here too, so plenty of fantasy options on both sides. For the Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, and WR DeSean Jackson are all worth starting. For the Cowboys QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton are all worth starting this week. Both Kickers are worth starting this week (David Akers for the Eagles; Nick Folk for the Cowboys), but in anticipation of a high-scoring game, I’d avoid both defenses.
Baltimore at Houston - The magic carpet ride (if you can call it that) is probably over for Ravens’ rookie QB Joe Flacco after just one week - even if you picked him up this week as a free agent, he’s not worth starting against a defense that figures to put more pressure on him than the Bengals did. RB Willis McGahee is a risky start this week due to ongoing injury concerns - RB Ray Rice is a good alternative, but RB Le`Ron McClain is not. TE Todd Heap is still worth starting in spite of injury concerns, but I’d avoid WRs Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason this week if you have better alternatives. For the Texans I’d avoid starting QB Matt Schaub and rookie RB Steve Slaton, but TE Owen Daniels and WRs Andre Johnson and Ken Walter should be started. I’d avoid both Kickers, but both defenses are worth starting this week in anticipation of a low-scoring game.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa
Here are some thoughts on games and players for the opening weekend of the NFL season:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - I’d avoid starting players from either team in this game, if at all possible - I just don’t have a good sense of how things are going to play out. New Orleans’ offense is obviously superior to Tampa Bay’s, but Tampa Bay’s defense also appears to be much stronger than New Orleans. The Kickers (Matt Bryant for Tampa Bay; Martin Gramatica for New Orleans) may decide the outcome.
St. Louis at Philadelphia - Lots of good options on both sides in this one - I expect a high-scoring game. Eagles’ players I like today are Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith, DeSean Jackson, and David Akers. Rams’ players who should do well are Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Randy McMichael, and Josh Brown.
New York Jets at Miami - I look for the Jets to dominate here. Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Chris Baker, Mike Nugent, and the Jets’ defense should all do well today. On the Dolphins’ side of the ball, the only player I like is Ted Ginn (especially if your league counts kickoff return yardage!)
Kansas City at New England - This also appears to be a mismatch. Without a passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest, I suspect that Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will struggle today. Tony Gonzalez may have some value, but that’s about it as far as the Chiefs’ offense goes. On the New England side - where do you start? Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Laurence Maroney, Stephen Gostkowski, and the Patriots’ defense should all do well today.
Houston at Pittsburgh - I’d stay away from the whole Texans’ RB situation until that sorts itself out, but Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Kris Brown should all help their fantasy owners today. On the Pittsburgh side, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and Jeff Reed should all do well. I’d avoid both defenses, although Pittsburgh’s may be able to force a few turnovers if Houston is unable to run the ball and is forced to pass 45-50 times.
Cincinnati at Baltimore - I’d normally avoid rookie QBs making their first start, but Joe Flacco has a tempting matchup today against the Bengals defense. I would avoid both Willis McGahee and Ray Rice today, although the eventual starter (should be McGahee if he’s fully recovered) will have good value this season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Matt Stover are all worth starting this week. On the Bengals side of the ball I don’t expect their running game will be able to do much, but Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco (yes, I’m referring to him by his new name), and Shayne Graham should all do well.
Detroit at Atlanta - Another game where I’d be willing to ignore my usual rule about avoiding rookie QBs making their first start. Matt Ryan should be able to throw the ball against the Lions’ defense, which bodes well for Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Ben Hartsock. He also has a decent running game at his disposal - Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are both worth starting as a 2nd RB or Flex player. Kicker Jason Elam should also have a number of scoring opportunities. For the Lions I wouldn’t look for too much from Kevin Smith, much less Rudi Johnson, today. However, Jon Kitna and all four of his primary receivers (Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Shaun McDonald, Mike Furrey) should do well. Kicker Jason Hanson is also worth starting this week.
Seattle at Buffalo - Like the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game I’m having a hard time analyzing this game. I don’t like either of Seattle’s Running Backs (Maurice Morris or Julius Jones), and all the question marks at Wide Receiver (Nate Burleson, Courtney Taylor) would lead me to pass on QB Matt Hasselbeck. On the Buffalo side I like RB Marshawn Lynch a lot, but since I’m not sure what to expect from QB Trent Edwards, I’d avoid all the Buffalo receivers for today. I suspect both teams’ defenses will do well today, particularly if your league uses total yards allowed or total points allowed as a scoring category.
Jacksonville at Tennessee - I have no confidence in Titans’ QB Vince Young, which diminishes the appeal of the other Titans’ offensive players. RB LenDale White and TE Alge Crumpler should do well, but I’d stay away from all of the Tennessee WRs. On the Jacksonville side I like QB David Garrard, RB Fred Taylor, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, and the Defense.
Dallas at Cleveland - Like most experts I’m expecting a fairly high-scoring game here; unlike most experts, I don’t think it will be close. Dallas has too many offensive weapons, and their defense is also capable of making opponents’ lives miserable. QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber (who I actually rate higher than Adrian Peterson this season), WRs Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton, TE Jason Witten, and K Nick Folk should all make their fantasy owners happy today (and throughout the season). On the Cleveland side I would stay away from RB Jamal Lewis given his injury concerns (note: if RB Jason Wright is available on your league’s waiver wire, I would definitely put in a claim for him!). QB Derek Anderson, WR Braylon Edwards, and TE Kellen Winslow are all worth starting, but I’d stay away from WR Donte Stallworth.
Carolina at San Diego - This also appears to be a mismatch, especially with the Panthers missing WR Steve Smith. However, I suspect QB Jake Delhomme will find a way to get the ball to WR Muhsin Muhammad and TE Jeff King, which makes them worth starting if you don’t have better options available (note: if WR Dwayne Jarrett is available in your league, he is also worth a waiver claim if you have room on your bench). I’d avoid both Carolina RBs (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) against the Chargers’ defense. For the Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson (duh), QB Philip Rivers, WRs Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, K Nick Kaeding, and the Defense are all worth starting. TE Antonio Gates is a question mark due to his injured toe - I’d avoid starting him if at all possible.
Arizona at San Francisco - 49ers’ QB J.T. O`Sullivan may be a feel-good story, but I’d feel much better if you don’t start him (or have him anywhere on your roster, for that matter). I suspect both Alex Smith, and possibly even Shaun Hill will be starting at QB for the 49ers at some point this season. For this week, RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis should do well, but I’d avoid all SF WRs because of my doubts about O`Sullivan. For Arizona QB Kurt Warner, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Leonard Pope, and K Neil Rackers should all do well. Arizona’s Defense is also a good play this week given doubts about O`Sullivan’s ability to get the ball to his wide receivers. I’d avoid the Cardinals’ RB situation until it’s clear whether Edgerrin James or rookie Tim Hightower (another good speculative pickup, if he’s available on your league’s waiver wire) will get the bulk of the carries this season.
Chicago at Indianapolis - Another mismatch, at least on paper (I know, I know - the games are played on grass and turf, not on paper). I would stay away from any and all Chicago offensive players, even the Tight Ends. On the Colts’ side I’m more concerned about QB Peyton Manning working with a new Center and facing the Bears’ defense than I am about his knee. Still, I suspect he will have a good, but not great, game this week, along with RB Joseph Addai (look for him to get more carries than normal to keep pressure off of Manning), TE Dallas Clark, WR Reggie Wayne, and Kicker Adam Vinatieri. I’d avoid Colts’ WRs Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez until it’s clearer how much (and how well) Harrison will be able to play this season. The Colts’ defense should also do well this week.
Minnesota at Green Bay - Another tough game to analyze. Whether Ryan Grant or Brandon Jackson starts at RB for the Packers, I don’t expect either one to do very well against the Vikings’ defense. This will put the burden on QB Aaron Rodgers, and I think he will have a good, not great, game throwing to WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and TE Donald Lee. For the Vikings I would avoid QB Tarvaris Jackson and his receivers until he proves he can be an effective passer. In the meantime, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will have to carry the Vikings’ offense, and I have my doubts about their ability to do so against the Packers’ defense. I’d stay away from both Kickers, but Green Bay’s Defense may be worth starting (just because I think they’ll be able to contain Peterson and Taylor due to the Vikes’ lack of a passing game).
Denver at Oakland - Another game with a lot of question marks. RB Selvin Young is the only Bronco I’d consider starting. QB Jay Cutler should have a very good season, but with WR Brandon Marshall out this week, I don’t like his chances throwing to Darrell Jackson (ankle injury) and rookie Eddie Royal. The Broncos’ Tight End situation is also muddled, so I’d avoid that too. I’d avoid Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell and his Wide Receivers against Denver’s secondary, but I like TE Zach Miller to have a big game. Rookie RB Darren McFadden has a lot of his fantasy owners excited, but at least in the short run (including this week) RB Justin Fargas is likely to have more fantasy value.
Good luck this week!
The Sherpa