The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVI.  Some will root for Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (if he’s able to play), Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots.  Some will root for Eli Manning, Victor “Salsa” Cruz, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Giants.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Madonna’s halftime show.

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Giants’ score and the vertical axis to represent the Patriots’ score.  Then, if the Patriots are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-five Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 180 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 45 Super Bowls.

Several observations:

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (53.9%).

• Almost half of the squares (46) have never been winners.

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Oakland at Buffalo (Sunday early) – Oakland looks like a band of walking wounded after just Week 1, but as long as Darren McFadden is able to play, they’ll emerge victorious in a nail-biter.  At least the Bills will always have Kansas City . . . Oakland 24, Buffalo 21.

• Oakland
  • Start:  RB Darren McFadden (Probable-shoulder), WR Denarius Moore, DEF, K Sebastian Janikowski
  • Neutral:  QB Jason Campbell (Probable-foot)
  • Sit:  RB Michael Bush, WRs Jacoby Ford (Out-hamstring), Louis Murphy (Out-groin), & Darius Heyward-Bey (Questionable-knee), TE Kevin Boss (Questionable-knee)
• Buffalo
  • Start:  RB Fred Jackson, WR Steve Johnson (Probable-groin)
  • Neutral:  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB C.J. Spiller, TE Scott Chandler, DEF, K Rian Lindell
  • Sit:  WRs David Nelson, Roscoe Parrish, Brad Smith, & Donald Jones

Green Bay at Carolina – Cam Newton’s 400-yard debut was the talk of the fantasy football world this week.  As impressive as his debut was, don’t expect anything close to a repeat this week, as Green Bay’s defense is much better than Arizona’s.  Then again, Green Bay figures to score early and often against Carolina’s defense, so chances are good Newton will have to play from behind again.  Green Bay 34, Carolina 21.

• Green Bay
  • Start:  QB Aaron Rodgers, WRs Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, & Donald Driver; TE Jermichael Finley (Probable-ankle), DEF, K Mason Crosby
  • Neutral:  RBs James Starks & Ryan Grant
  • Sit:  WRs James Jones & Randall Cobb
• Carolina
  • Start:  WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen
  • Neutral:  QB Cam Newton, WRs Brandon LaFell & Legedu Naanee, K Olindo Mare
  • Sit:  RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, TE Jeremy Shockey, DEF
    

Kansas City at Detroit – No, Kansas City isn’t as bad as they looked last week in their “preseason” loss to the Bills.  Expect that game to serve as a wake-up call to a team that made the playoffs last season and added weapons on offense.  The Lions were impressive in their opening-game win in Tampa, and as long as Calvin Johnson’s ankle holds up, they should eke out the victory here.  Detroit 28, Kansas City 27.

• Kansas City
  • Start:  RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, K Ryan Succop
  • Neutral:  QB Matt Cassel, WR Steve Breaston
  • Sit:  RBs Thomas Jones & Dexter McCluster, WR Jonathan Baldwin (Out-thumb), TE Leonard Pope, DEF
• Detroit
  • Start:  QB Matthew Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew, K Jason Hanson
  • Neutral:  WR Nate Burleson, DEF
  • Sit:  RBs Jerome Harrison & Maurice Morris
    

Cleveland at Indianapolis – No Peyton Manning?  No problem, at least not this week.  Kerry Collins will have another week of practice under his belt to get his timing down with his receivers, and Cleveland’s offense is nowhere near as potent as Houston’s, even if they do have a running back named Peyton and a quarterback named Colt.  Indianapolis 27, Cleveland 21.

• Cleveland
  • Start:  RB Peyton Hillis, WRs Mohamed Massaquoi (Probable-hamstring) Brian Robiskie, & Greg Little
  • Neutral:  QB Colt McCoy, RB Mario Hardesty, TEs Ben Watson & Evan Moore, DEF, K Phil Dawson
  • Sit:  WR Josh Cribbs
    
• Indianapolis
  • Start:  WRs Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, & Pierre Garcon; TE Dallas Clark, DEF, K Adam Vinatieri
  • Neutral:  QB Kerry Collins, RBs Joseph Addai & Delone Carter
  • Sit:  RB Donald Brown, TE Jacob Tamme
    

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – Both teams had disappointing showings in their openers last week.  If you started either Bucs’ running back LeGarrette Blount or Vikes’ quarterback Donovan McNabb last week, chances are your fantasy team also had a disappointing showing last week.  McNabb will rebound today; Blount won’t.  Oh, and Minnesota has some guy named Adrian Peterson at running back too - I hear he’s pretty good.  Minnesota 27, Tampa Bay 24.

• Tampa Bay
  • Start:  WR Michael Williams, TE Kellen Winslow
  • Neutral:  QB Josh Freeman, RB Earnest Graham, WR Arrelious Benn, DEF, K Connor Barth
  • Sit:  RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Dezmon Briscoe
    
• Minnesota
  • Start:  RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin
  • Neutral:  QB Donovan McNabb, TE Visanthe Shiancoe
  • Sit:  RB Toby Gerhart, WRs Michael Jenkins (Probable-groin), Bernard Berrian & Greg Camarillo, TE Kyle Rudolph
    

Chicago at New Orleans - The Bears looked like world-beaters last week against the Falcons, but the Saints’ offense presents a much bigger challenge, at least at this point in the season.  It’s always a mystery as to which Saints’ receiver will receive the most targets in any given week, but it’s almost a given that Drew Brees will have a big game no matter who the opponent is.  New Orleans 34, Chicago 24.

• Chicago
  • Start:  QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WR Johnny Knox
  • Neutral:  WRs Devin Hester & Earl Bennett, K Robbie Gould
  • Sit:  RB Marion Barber (Doubtful-calf), WR Roy Johnson (Questionable-groin), DEF
    
• New Orleans
  • Start:  QB Drew Brees, WRs Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson, TE Jimmy Graham, K John Kasay
  • Neutral:  RBs Mark Ingram & Pierre Thomas, DEF
  • Sit:  RB Darren Sproles, WR Lance Moore (Questionable-groin)
    

Jacksonville at New York Jets – Jacksonville, which already faced an uphill battle against the Jets’ defense will most likely be without tight end Marcedes Lewis and wide receiver Jason Hill.  Don’t get too excited by Mark Sanchez’ yardage total last week; the Jets are unlikely to be playing from behind this week, and several of their receivers are already dinged up (are knee injuries contagious?) so they’re more likely to rely on their running game.  New York 27, Jacksonville 17.

• Jacksonville
  • Start:  RB Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Neutral:  RB Deji Karim, TE Zach Miller, DEF
  • Sit:  QB Luke McCown, WRs Mike Thomas & Jason Hill (Doubtful-hip), TE Marcedes Lewis (Doubtful-calf), K Josh Scobee
    
• New York
  • Start:  RB Shonn Greene, WR Santonio Holmes (Questionable-knee), TE Dustin Keller, DEF, K Nick Folk
  • Neutral:  QB Mark Sanchez, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WRs Derrick Mason (Probable-knee) & Plaxico Burress (Probable-ankle)
  • Sit:  N/A

Seattle at Pittsburgh – Of all this weekend’s games, this one has the greatest potential to be a blowout.  Yes, Pittsburgh was embarrassed by their arch-rivals last weekend, but don’t count on that happening again this week, especially since the Seahawks will once again be without wide receiver Sidney Rice.  Pittsburgh 31, Seattle 10.

• Seattle
  • Start:  TE Zach Miller
  • Neutral:  N/A
  • Sit:  QB Tarvaris Jackson, RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Sidney Rice (Out-shoulder), Mike Williams, & Ben Obomanu; DEF, K Steven Hauschka
• Pittsburgh
  • Start:  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Mike Wallace & Hines Ward, TE Heath Miller, DEF, K Shaun Suisham
  • Neutral:  WRs Antoine Brown & Emmanuel Sanders
  • Sit:  WR Jerricho Cotchery (Out-hamstring)
    

Baltimore at Tennessee – Okay, I lied - this game also has great blowout potential.  Hard to see Titans’ running back Chris Johnson doing much against the Ravens’ defense unless he suddenly becomes an intregal part of their passing game.  By the end of the game Titans’ quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will wish he were back with the Seahawks, at least in the weeks that they aren’t playing Pittsburgh.  Baltimore 31, Tennessee 14.

• Baltimore
  • Start:  QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Ed Dickson, DEF, K Billy Cundiff
  • Neutral:  RB Ricky Williams, WR Lee Evans (Probable-ankle)
  • Sit:  TE Dennis Pitta
    
• Tennessee
  • Start:  N/A
  • Neutral:  WRs Kenny Britt & Nate Washington
  • Sit:  QB Matt Hasselbeck, RBs Chris Johnson & Javon Ringer (Probable-back), TE Javon Cook, DEF, K Rob Bironas
    

Arizona at Washington – Even though he was overshadowed last week by Cam Newton, Cardinals’ quarterback Kevin Kolb showed why so many people are tabbing him as a breakout fantasy star this season.  On the other hand most people will look at Redskins’ quarterback Rex Grossman’s showing against the Giants last week as a fluke, and they’re probably right.  Arizona 28, Washington 20.

• Arizona
  • Start:  QB Kevin Kolb, RB Beanie Wells, WR Larry Fitzgerald, TE Todd Heap
  • Neutral:  WRs Andre Roberts & Early Doucet, DEF, K Jay Feely
  • Sit:  RB LaRod Stephen-Howling (Questionable-hand)
• Washington
  • Start: RB Tim Hightower, WR Santana Moss, TE Fred Davis, K Graham Gano
  • Neutral:  QB Rex Grossman, WRs Jabar Gaffney & Anthony Armstrong, TE Chris Cooley (Questionable-knee), DEF
  • Sit:  RBs Roy Helu & Ryan Torain

Dallas at San Francisco (Sunday late) – Dallas will avoid a fourth-quarter collapse this week, and just as importantly, they’ll avoid kicking the ball to 49ers’ return man par excellence Ted Ginn Jr.  Dallas 30, San Francisco 21.

• Dallas
  • Start:  QB Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones, WR Miles Austin (Probable-knee), TE Jason Witten
    
  • Neutral:  DEF, K Dan Bailey
  • Sit:  RBs Tashard Choice & DeMarco Murray, WR Dez Bryant (Questionable-thigh)
• San Francisco
  • Start:  RB Frank Gore, WR Braylon Edwards, TE Vernon Davis
  • Neutral:  QB Alex Smith, WR Josh Morgan, K David Akers
  • Sit:  RBs Kendall Hunter & Anthony Dixon, WRs Michael Crabtree (Questionable-foot) & Ted Ginn, DEF

Cincinnati at Denver – The Denver faithful may be clamoring for Tim Tebow already, but Kyle Orton will rebound this week and lead his team to victory.  Cincinnati surprised Cleveland last week, but Bengal quarterback Anthony Dalton may not be at full strength for this contest.  Denver 27, Cincinnati 24.

• Cincinnati
  • Start:  RB Cedric Benson, WRs A.J. Green & Jerome Simpson; TE Jermaine Gresham
  • Neutral:  QB Andy Dalton (Probable-wrist), WR Jordan Shipley, DEF, K Mike Nugent
  • Sit:  RB Bernard Scott
    
• Denver
  • Start:  QB Kyle Orton, WRs Eric Decker & Eddie Royal, TE Daniel Fells, K Matt Prater
  • Neutral:  RBs Knowshon Moreno (Questionable-hamstring) & Willis McGahee, WR Brandon Lloyd (Questionable-groin), DEF
  • Sit:  WR Demaryius Thomas (Out-finger)

Houston at Miami – Both teams put up a ton of offense last week, and both will do the same today.  The jury is still out on the revamped Texans’ defense, but I’ll go with Dolphins’ quarterback Chad Henne to have another big game and lead his team to victory.  Miami 31, Houston 28.

• Houston
  • Start:  QB Matt Schaub, RB Ben Tate (Probable-quad), WRs Andre Johnson & Jacoby Jones, TE Owen Daniel, K Neil Rackers
  • Neutral:  N/A
  • Sit:  RBs Arian Foster (Questionable-quad) & Derrick Ward (Out-shoulder), WR Kevin Walter (Questionable-shoulder), DEF
• Miami
  • Start:  QB Chad Henne, RB Reggie Bush, WR Brandon Marshall, TE Anthony Fasano, K Dan Carpenter
  • Neutral:  RB Daniel Thomas (Probable-hamstring), WRs Davone Bess & Brian Hartline
  • Sit:  DEF

San Diego at New England – Even by Tom Brady’s standards his performance last Monday night against the Dolphins was remarkable.  It will be fun to watch this shootout between two of the AFC’s top offenses, and there are a number of good fantasy choices for this week on both offenses (hint:  neither defense is a good play this week).  New England 35, San Diego 31.

• San Diego
  • Start:  QB Philip Rivers, WRs Vincent Jackson & Malcom Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, K Nick Novak
  • Neutral:  RBs Ryan Mathews & Mike Tolbert
  • Sit:  DEF
• New England
  • Start:  QB Tom Brady, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WRs Wes Welker & Deion Branch, TE Rob Gronkowski, K Stephen Gostkowski
  • Neutral:  RB Danny Woodhead, WR Chad Ochocinco, TE Aaron Hernandez
  • Sit:  WR Julian Edelman, DEF

Philadelphia at Atlanta (Sunday night) – By now you may have heard that the Eagles’ quarterback used to play in Atlanta before he got in some legal trouble there.  Perhaps you’ve even heard that he’s had a bit of success with his new club after addressing his legal issues.  That small subplot aside, Atlanta’s blitzing defense will be the difference in this game, make the prodigal son’s homecoming an unhappy one.  Atlanta 30, Philadelphia 27.

• Philadelphia
  • Start:  QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WRs DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin, K Alex Henery
  • Neutral:  WR Jason Avant, TE Brent Celek
  • Sit:  RB Ronnie Brown, WR Steve Smith (Probable-knee), DEF
• Atlanta
  • Start:  QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WRs Roddy White (Probable-knee) & Julio Jones, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant
  • Neutral:  DEF
  • Sit:  RBs Jason Snelling & Jacquizz Rodgers, WR Harry Douglas (Probable-concussion)
    

St. Louis at New York Giants (Monday night) – The Giants, realizing how depleted their secondary is, will blitz Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford and his injured thumb relentlessly.  Without Steven Jackson at full strength the Rams won’t have enough of a running game to keep the Giants’ defense honest, and the Giants will rely on their ground game to gain the victory.  New York 27, St. Louis 24.

• St. Louis
  • Start:  WRs Brandon Gibson & Mike Sims-Walker  
  • Neutral:  QB Sam Bradford (Probable-finger), RB Cadillac Williams, TE Lance Kendricks, DEF, K Josh Brown
  • Sit:  RB Steven Jackson (Questionable-quad), WRs Danny Amendola (Doubtful-elbow) & Danario Alexander
    
• New York
  • Start:  QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WRs Hakeem Nicks (Qustionable-knee) & Mario Manningham, K Lawrence Tynes
  • Neutral:  RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Domenick Hixon, DEF
  • Sit:  TE Jake Ballard

Good luck this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

What New Year’s resolution should your favorite NFL team make?  Find out in my latest football blog entry on The Huffington Post!  Here’s the link:  http://huff.to/gNRa2C

Happy New Year!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Only the diehards who can’t stand to watch a football game without having some rooting interest in it join fantasy football leagues that play their league championship games during the last week of the NFL’s regular season.  With that in mind here are my recommendations for Week 17 - all games are on Sunday this week, and all 16 games are division rivalry games, including a doozy of a regular-season finale in the NFC (yawn) West:

Miami at New England (Sunday early) - New England has a history of playing their starters most of the game even during season-ending contests that have no bearing on the Pats’ playoff seeding.  It’s understandable, given that the Patriots often have a bye the first week of the playoffs.  Still, with several key starters dealing with nagging injuries, it’s hard to believe that a big-picture coach like Bill Belichick would take unnecessary risks in what amounts to a glorified preseason game.  Miami 24 New England 21.

• Miami
  • Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup):  WRs Brandon Marshall & Davone Bess, TE Mickey Shuler, DEF
  • No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup):  RB Ricky Williams, WR Brian Robiskie, TE Anthony Fasano (Out-knee), K Dan Carpenter
  • Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option):  QB Chad Henne, RB Ronnie Brown
• New England
  • Yes:  DEF
  • No:  QB Tom Brady (Probable-foot), RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Danny Woodhead, WRs Wes Welker & Deion Branch (Questionable-knee), TEs Aaron Hernandez (Questionable-hip) & Rob Gronkowski, K Shayne Graham
  • Maybe So:  None

Carolina at Atlanta - It’s easy to imagine Carolina rolling over and playing dead in this game against a superior opponent, but don’t underestimate the players’ desire to send John Fox out on a winning note in what will be his last game after a nine-year run coaching the Panthers.  Carolina will put up a good fight, but the Falcons will pull this one out late in the game.  Atlanta 21 Carolina 20.

• Carolina
  • Yes: WR Steve Smith (Questionable-calf), TE Dante Rosario, DEF, K John Kasay
  • No:  QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Mike Goodson, WRs Brandon LaFell & David Gettis
  • Maybe So:  RB Jonathan Stewart (Probable-foot)
• Atlanta
  • Yes:  RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White (Probable-knee), TE Tony Gonzalez, DEF
  • No:  WR Michael Jenkins, K Matt Bryant
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Ryan

Minnesota at Detroit - It wouldn’t be a Vikings’ game if we knew how healthy Brett Favre was.  Thanks to the hole in the Metrodome roof this will be Minnesota’s second game of the season in Detroit, and they’ll make themselves right at home.  The margin of victory will depend on how much the Vikings play injured star Adrian Peterson, but the outcome won’t.  Minnesota 24 Detroit 13.

• Minnesota
  • Yes:  RB Adrian Peterson (Probable-knee)/Toby Gerhart (whoever starts), WR Percy Harvin, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, DEF
  • No:  QB Brett Favre (Doubtful-concussion), WR Sidney Rice (Doubtful-concussion), K Ryan Longwell
  • Maybe So:  QB Joe Webb, WR Greg Camarillo
• Detroit
  • Yes:  WR Calvin Johnson (Questionable-ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew, DEF
  • No:  QB Shaun Hill, RBs Maurice Morris & Jahvid Best (Probable-toe), WR Nate Burleson, K Dave Rayner
  • Maybe So:  None

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Hard as it is to believe, if the Steelers lose this game they could possibly drop to the AFC’s sixth seed, even with an 11-5 record.  Ben Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, and the Steelers’ stout defense will ensure that doesn’t happen.  Pittsburgh 27 Cleveland 10.

• Pittsburgh
  • Yes:  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Hines Ward & Mike Wallace, TE Heath Miller, DEF, K Shaun Suisham
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  WR Emmanuel Sanders
• Cleveland
  • Yes:  TE Ben Watson (Probable-ankle)
  • No:  QB Colt McCoy, RB Peyton Hillis (Questionable-ribs), WR Josh Cribbs, DEF, K Phil Dawson
  • Maybe So:  WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Brian Robiskie

Oakland at Kansas City - A month ago it looked like a playoff berth might be at stake in this game, but the two teams have gone in opposite directions since then.  Jason Campbell’s first season with the Raiders has been a huge disappointment, but at least he can look forward to a new head coach next season.  Kansas City 24 Oakland 21.

• Oakland
  • Yes:  RB Darren McFadden (Questionable-toe)/Michael Bush (whoever starts), WR Jacoby Ford, TE Zach Miller (Probable-foot), DEF
  • No:  WR Louis Murphy, K Sebastien Janikowski
  • Maybe So:  QB Jason Campbell
• Kansas City
  • Yes:  RBs Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones, WR Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Moeaki, DEF
  • No:  WR Chris Chambers, K Ryan Succop
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Cassel

Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Josh Freeman had the best game of his young career last week, but don’t let that trick you into starting him against New Orleans’ secondary.  New Orleans has already punched its ticket to the playoffs, while Tampa Bay still has a shot, albeit a long one.  Tampa also sports arguably both the best rookie running back (LeGarrette Blount) and the best rookie wide receiver (Mike Williams).  That speaks well to the Bucs’ future, but they’ll come up short this Sunday.  New Orleans 23 Tampa Bay 20.

• Tampa Bay
  • Yes:  RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Mike Williams, TE Kellen Winslow (Probable-knee), DEF, K Connor Barth
  • No:  QB Josh Freeman, WR Arrelious Benn
  • Maybe So:  None
• New Orleans
  • Yes:  QB Drew Brees, RB Chris Ivory (Probable-hamstring), WR Marques Colston (Questionable-knee), TE Jimmy Graham, DEF, K Garrett Hartley
  • No:  RBs Reggie Bush (Probable-chest) & Pierre Thomas (Questionable-ankle), TE Jeremy Shockey (Questionable-groin)
  • Maybe So:  WRs Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem (Probable-toe), & Lance Moore

Cincinnati at Baltimore - Carson Palmer is another quarterback coming off a stellar performance last week who figures to  have a much tougher time this week.  It would be fun to see Cincinnati’s young receivers come through with an encore performance against Ed Reed and crew, but that doesn’t figure to happen with a division title still within Baltimore’s grasp.  Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 21

• Cincinnati
  • Yes:  WRs Andre Caldwell & Jordan Shipley, DEF
  • No:  RBs Cedric Benson & Bernard Scott (Questionable-toe), TE Jermaine Gresham (Doubtful-knee), K Clint Stitser, WR Chad Ochocinco (Out-ankle)
  • Maybe So:  QB Carson Palmer, WR Jerome Simpson
• Baltimore
  • Yes:  QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Ed Dickson, DEF
  • No:  WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, TE Todd Heap (Questionable-thigh), K Billy Cundiff
  • Maybe So:  WR Derrick Mason (Probable-ankle)

Buffalo at New York Jets - With the Jets having very little chance of moving up to the fifth seed there’s a good chance ailing quarterback Mark Sanchez’ day will be a short one.  It doesn’t matter whether Mark Brunell or Kellen Clemens follows Sanchez - New York will rely on its ground game to grind out the victory and head into the playoffs with what passes as a head of steam for them.  New York Jets 24 Buffalo 17.

• Buffalo
  • Yes:  WR Steve Johnson, DEF
  • No:  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Questionable-knee), RBs Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller, WRs David Nelson (Out-ribs) & Donald Jones (Out-concussion), K Rian Lindell
  • Maybe So:  None
• New York Jets
  • Yes:  RB Shonn Greene, WR Santonio Holmes (Probable-quad), TE Dustin Keller, DEF
  • No:  QB Mark Sanchez (Probable-shoulder), WR Jerricho Cotchery, K Nick Folk
  • Maybe So:  RB LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards

New York Giants at Washington (Sunday late) - Depending on whether the Giants are able to win and gain an unlikely playoff berth, this could well be Tom Couglin’s last game.  Washington has also had a messy season, but Anthony Armstrong’s recent emergence has been one of few bright spots.  New York Giants 24 Washington 17.

• New York
  • Yes:  QB Eli Manning, RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, WRs Mario Manningham & Derek Hagan, TE Kevin Boss, DEF, K Lawrence Tynes
  • No:  WR Hakeem Nicks (Out-toe)
  • Maybe So:  None
• Washington
  • Yes:  WRs Anthony Armstrong & Santonio Moss, TE Chris Cooley
  • No:  RBs Ryan Torain (Questionable-ribs) & Keiland Williams, DEF, K Graham Gano
  • Maybe So:  QB Rex Grossman

Tennessee at Indianapolis - Indy’s in a win-and-you’re-in situation; it’s hard to imagine they won’t win with Peyton Manning at the helm in a game like this.  Tennessee’s season has been a huge disappointment from start to finish.  Indianapolis 31 Tennessee 21.

• Tennessee
  • Yes:  RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, TE Jared Cook
  • No:  RB Javon Springer, WRs Justin Gage & Randy Moss, DEF, K Rob Bironas (Probable-groin)
  • Maybe So:  QB Kerry Collins, WR Nate Washington
• Indianapolis
  • Yes:  QB Peyton Manning, WRs Reggie Wayne & Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, DEF
  • No:  K Adam Vinatieri
  • Maybe So:  RBs Joseph Addai, Domenic Rhodes, & Donald Brown; WR Blair White

Chicago at Green Bay - Green Bay controls its own (wild card) destiny.  Chicago would like to win, but with nothing to play for, it’s hard to see them risking injuries to their starters by playing them the whole game.  Green Bay 24 Chicago 17.

• Chicago
  • Yes:  RB Matt Forte, WR Johnny Knox, TE Greg Olsen, DEF
  • No:  QB Jay Cutler, WRs Earl Bennett (Questionable-ankle) & Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould
  • Maybe So:  None
• Green Bay
  • Yes:  QB Aaron Rodgers, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, TE Anthony Quarless
  • No:  RB Brandon Jackson, K Mason Crosby
  • Maybe So:  WRs James Jones & Jordy Nelson

Arizona at San Francisco - When the NFL’s schedule-making wizards set this season’s schedule, this is probably the game they figured would decide the NFC Worst West.  Things obviously haven’t worked out that way.  At least Jim Tomsula gets to face the Cards in his first (and in all likelihood last) game as the 49ers’ head coach.  San Francisco 27 Arizona 21.

• Arizona
  • Yes:  WR Larry Fitzgerald
  • No:  RB Beanie Wells, DEF, K Jay Feely
  • Maybe So:  QB John Skelton, RB Tim Hightower, WR Steve Breaston
• San Francisco
  • Yes:  QB Alex Smith, TE Vernon Davis (Probable-thumb), DEF
  • No:  QB Troy Smith
  • Maybe So:  RBs Brian Westbrook & Anthony Dixon (Probable-ankle), WR Josh Morgan

Dallas at Philadelphia - Here’s another game that the NFL’s schedulers probably figured would decide a division title.  Michael Vick and Wade Phillips made sure that wouldn’t be the case.  At least Vick will still be on his team’s sideline (presumably) Sunday.  Philadelphia 24 Dallas 21.

• Dallas
  • Yes:  RB Felix Jones, WR Miles Austin, TE Jason Witten, DEF
  • No:  RBs Marion Barber & Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams (Probable-groin), K David Buehler
  • Maybe So:  QB Stephen McGee/Jon Kitna (Questionable-abdomen) (whoever starts)
• Philadelphia
  • Yes:  QB Kevin Kolb, RB LeSean McCoy, TE Brent Celek, DEF
  • No:  QB Mike Vick (Out-quad), WR DeSean Jackson (Questionable-foot) & Jeremy Maclin, K David Akers
  • Maybe So:  WRs Jason Avant & Riley Cooper

San Diego at Denver - San Diego has arguably the best offense in football, the best defense in football, and the worst special teams in football (sorry, Giant fans).  It all adds up to another season of shattered dreams and wasted opportunities.  Look for the Chargers to take out their frustrations on the Tebows Broncos.  San Diego 31 Denver 17.

• San Diego
  • Yes:  QB Philip Rivers, RBs Ryan Mathews & Darren Sproles, WRs Vincent Jackson & Legedu Naanee, TE Randy McMichael, DEF
  • No:  RB Mike Tolbert (IR-shoulder), TE Antonio Gates (IR-foot), K Nate Kaeding
  • Maybe So:  None
• Denver
  • Yes:  WRs Brandon Lloyd & Jabar Gaffney, DEF
  • No:  QB Tim Tebow (Probable-ankle); RBs Knowshon Moreno (Questionable-ribs), Lance Ball, & Correll Buckhalter, K Steve Hauschka
  • Maybe So:  WR Eddie Royal (Questionable-groin)

Jacksonville at Houston - Houston was expected to contend for a playoff berth this season; Jacksonville wasn’t.  It’s still highly unlikely for Jacksonville to get the necessary help from Tennessee against Indianapolis, but even without the services of Maurice Jones-Drew the last two games of the season, they’ve had a better year than their last two fans had any right to expect.  Jacksonville 27 Houston 24.

• Jacksonville
  • Yes:  QB Trent Edwards, RB Rashad Jennings, WRs Mike Sims-Walker (Probable-ankle) & Mike Thomas, TE Marcedes Lewis, DEF, K Josh Scobee
  • No:  QB David Garrard (IR-finger), RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Out-knee)
  • Maybe So:  None
• Houston
  • Yes:  QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Jacoby Jones
  • No:  WR Andre Johnson (Out-ankle), K Neil Rackers (Probable-hamstring)
  • Maybe So:  WR Kevin Walter

St. Louis at Seattle (Sunday night) - It’s hard to believe this is the best NBC could do for a regular-season finale, but it’s the only game that amounts to a playoff game for both teams.  Rest assured, if you find something else to do Sunday night, you’ll have plenty of company.  St. Louis 24 Seattle 17.

• St. Louis
  • Yes:  QB Sam Bradford, WR Danny Amendola, DEF
  • No:  K Josh Brown
  • Maybe So:  RB Steven Jackson; WRs Brandon Gibson, Laurent Robinson & Danario Alexander
• Seattle
  • Yes:  WRs Mike Williams & Ben Obomanu, TE John Carlson, DEF
  • No:  QB Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable-hip)/Charlie Whitehurst (whoever starts), RB Marshawn Lynch, K Olindo Mare (Probable-back)
  • Maybe So:  None

Good luck in your fantasy league championship games this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Week 16 featured a number of injuries and several inactive players, undoubtedly affecting many fantasy leagues’ playoff matchups.  Congratulations to those of you who survived the obstacles and are now basking in the glow of a league championship.  For the rest of you let’s take a look and see which players might be available on your league’s waiver wire who could make an impact in your league’s fantasy Super Bowl.

Who are the players who are injured, and who may be on your league’s waiver wire with the potential to make a difference for your fantasy team?

Quarterback

• Injuries/benchings
  • Michael Vick (quad)
  • Jon Kitna (oblique)
  • Tim Tebow (ankle)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (knee)
  • David Garrard (finger)
  • Mark Sanchez (shoulder)
  • Troy Smith (benched)
• Waiver wire targets (rankings based on projected playing time and Week 17 matchups)
  • Trent Edwards (@ Hou)
  • Kevin Kolb (vs Dal)
  • Alex Smith (vs Ari)
  • Stephen McGee (@ Phi)
  • Rex Grossman (vs NYG)
  • Jason Campbell (@ KC)
  • Kerry Collins (@ Ind)
  • John Skelton (@ SF)
  • Colt McCoy (vs Pit)
  • Charlie Whitehurst (vs StL)

Running Back

• Injuries/benchings
  • Maurice Jones-Drew (knee)
  • Darren McFadden (toe)
  • Ahmad Bradshaw (toe)
  • Peyton Hillis (ribs)
  • Jonathan Stewart (foot)
  • Mike Tolbert (neck)
  • Chris Ivory (hamstring)
  • Knowshon Moreno (ribs)
  • Ryan Torain (ribs)
  • Jahvid Best (toe)
  • Reggie Bush (collarbone)
  • Mike Hart (ankle)
  • Bernard Scott (toe)
  • Earnest Graham (neck)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Domenic Rhodes (vs Ten)
  • Correll Buckhalter (vs SD)

Wide Receivers

• Injuries/benchings
  • Andre Johnson (ankle)
  • Calvin Johnson (ankle)
  • DeSean Jackson (foot)
  • Roddy White (knee)
  • Hakeem Nicks (toe)
  • Marques Colston (knee)
  • Sidney Rice (concussion)
  • Derrick Mason (ankle)
  • David Nelson (ribs)
  • Chad Ochocinco (ankle)
  • Steve Breaston (knee)
  • Earl Bennett (ankle)
  • Robert Meachem (toe)
  • Eddie Royal (groin)
  • Malcom Floyd (hamstring)
  • Donald Jones (concussion)
  • Roy Williams (groin)
  • Demaryius Thomas (ankle)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Anthony Armstrong (vs NYG)
  • Jacoby Jones (vs Jac)
  • Emmanuel Sanders (@ Cle)
  • Jacoby Ford (@ KC)
  • Blair White (vs Ten)
  • Ben Obomanu (vs StL)
  • Josh Morgan (@ StL)
  • Greg Camarillo (@ Det)
  • Riley Cooper (vs Dal)
  • Legedu Naanee (@ Den)
  • Emmanuel Sanders (vs Car)
  • Jason Hill (@ Hou)
  • Andre Caldwell (@ Bal)
  • James Jones (vs Chi)
  • Jordy Nelson (vs Chi)
  • Mohamed Massaquoi (vs Pit)
  • Laurent Robinson (@ Sea)
  • Brandon Gibson (@ Sea)
  • Brian Robiskie (vs Pit)
  • Nate Washington (@ Ind)
  • Danario Alexander (@ Sea)
  • Michael Jenkins (vs Car)
  • Jerome Simpson (@ Bal)
  • Naaman Roosevelt (@ NYJ)

Tight Ends

• Injuries/benchings
  • Antonio Gates (IR-foot)
  • Kellen Winslow (knee)
  • Aaron Hernandez (hip)
  • Jermaine Gresham (knee)
  • Ben Watson (ankle)
  • Owen Daniels (knee)
  • Vernon Davis (thumb)
  • Anthony Fasano (knee)
  • Todd Heap (thigh)
  • Jeremy Shockey (groin)
• Waiver Wire Targets
  • Jimmy Graham (vs TB)
  • Jared Cook (@ Ind)
  • Tony Moeaki (vs Oak)
  • John Carlson (vs StL)

Kicker

• Injuries/benchings
  • Neil Rackers (hamstring)
  • Rob Bironas (groin)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Jeff Reed (vs Ari)
  • Shaun Suisham (@ Cle)
  • Josh Brown (@ Sea)
  • Shayne Graham (vs Mia)

Defense

• Injuries/benchings - N/A (at least I hope so)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Seattle (vs StL)
  • St. Louis (vs Sea) (gives you some idea of what I think of this game!)
  • Kansas City (vs Oak)
  • Buffalo (@ NYJ)

Final Thoughts

• Commissioner Roger Goodell couldn’t have embarrassed himself more in this whole Brett Favre investigation if he had tried.
• Accept the fact that random events can determine the outcome of your championship game, no matter how much homework you’ve done.
• Above all else remember that this is a game, and we play fantasy football as an escape from the rest of our lives.  Sure, we’d all like to win the championship in every league we’re in, but losing a fantasy football game, even a title game, ranks way down the list of life’s calamities.

Have a great week, and good luck in your championship games!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

How humble is Michael Vick?  What great opportunity did Mike Singletary miss?  Find out by reading our latest football blog entry on The Huffington Post!

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

What holiday gifts should you get for DeSean Jackson and Rex Ryan?  Find out in my latest football blog entry on The Huffington Post!  Here’s the link:  http://huff.to/hgot2a

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Most fantasy leagues have their “Super Bowl” this weekend, so if there’s ever a week to pay close attention to matchups rather than just “start your studs”, this week is it.  Here are my recommendations for Week 16 - all games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted:

Carolina at Pittsburgh (Thursday night) - At first glance (and probably at second and third glance too) it would seem easy to predict a lopsided victory for the playoff-bound Steelers over a Panthers team that has racked up just two wins so far this season.  Steelers’ RB Rashard Mendenhall should run wild against a substandard Carolina run defense, but don’t look for Ben Roethlisberger to have a big game against the Panthers’ pass defense.  Panthers’ RB Jonathan Stewart won’t find much running room against a Steelers’ defense that barely gives up 60 yards a game to opposing rushers, but Jimmy Clausen should have one of the better games of his rookie season against a Steelers’ secondary that will be missing Troy Polomalu.  Pittsburgh 24 Carolina 17.

• Carolina 
  • Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup):  WR Steve Smith, TE Dante Rosario, DEF 
  • No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup):  RBs Jonathan Stewart & Mike Goodson, K John Kasay
  • Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option):  QB Jimmy Clausen, WRs Brandon LaFell & David Gettis 
• Pittsburgh 
  • Yes:  RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Hines Ward & Mike Wallace, DEF
  • No:  K Shaun Suisham 
  • Maybe So:  QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Emmanuel Sanders, TE Heath Miller

Dallas at Arizona (Saturday night) - This Christmas night game won’t be much of a gift to NFL fans unless they’re unabashed Cowboy fans or like one-sided football games.  Dallas 34 Arizona 21.

• Dallas 
  • Yes:  QB Jon Kitna, RBs Felix Jones & Tashard Choice, WR Miles Austin, TE Jason Witten, DEF, K David Buehler 
  • No:  RB Marion Barber
  • Maybe So:  WR Roy Williams 
• Arizona 
  • Yes:  RB Tim Hightower, WR Larry Fitzgerald
  • No:  RB Beanie Wells, DEF, K Jay Feely 
  • Maybe So:  QB John Skelton, WR Steve Breaston 

Detroit at Miami (Sunday early) - If you put together Detroit’s offense with Miami’s defense, you’d have a playoff-caliber football team.  If you put together Miami’s offense with Detroit’s defense, you’d have a team that’s on the clock.  Miami 17 Detroit 14.

• Detroit 
  • Yes:  WRs Calvin Johnson (Probable-ankle) & Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew, DEF 
  • No:  RBs Maurice Morris (Probable-chest) & Jahvid Best (Probable-toe), K Dave Rayner
  • Maybe So:  QB Shaun Hill (Questionable-finger)/Drew Stanton (Questionable-shoulder) (whoever starts) 
• Miami 
  • Yes:  RB Ronnie Brown, WR Brandon Marshall, TE Anthony Fasano, DEF
  • No:  QB Chad Henne, K Dan Carpenter 
  • Maybe So:  RB Ricky Williams, WR Davone Bess 

New England at Buffalo - As well as New England has played in recent weeks it’s tempting to predict a Patriot blowout.  However, Buffalo has also played better as of late and should keep this game close.  New England 24 Buffalo 21.

• New England 
  • Yes:  QB Tom Brady (Probable-foot), RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Danny Woodhead, WRs Wes Welker & Deion Branch (Probable-knee), TE Rob Gronkowski, DEF 
  • No:  WR Brandon Tate, TE Aaron Hernandez (Out-hip), K Shayne Graham
  • Maybe So:  None 
• Buffalo 
  • Yes:  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Steve Johnson, DEF
  • No:  RB C.J. Spiller, K Rian Lindell 
  • Maybe So:  RB Fred Jackson, WR David Nelson

Washington at Jacksonville - Washington’s head coach is feuding with his erstwhile starting quarterback.  Jacksonville is fighting for a playoff berth.  Rex Grossman will defy astronomical odds and have a second consecutive productive game, but it won’t be enough.  Jacksonville 34 Washington 30.

• Washington 
  • Yes:  QB Rex Grossman, WRs Anthony Armstrong & Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley, K Graham Gano 
  • No:  RBs Ryan Torain, Keiland Williams, & James Davis; DEF
  • Maybe So:  None 
• Jacksonville 
  • Yes:  QB David Garrard, RB Rashad Jennings, WRs Mike Sims-Walker (Questionable-ankle) & Mike Thomas, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee
  • No:  RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Doubtful-knee), DEF 
  • Maybe So:  None 

New York Jets at Chicago - Both teams had huge road victories last week, but only one team has a head coach with an apparent foot fetish (to go along with his apparent sitophilia).  The Jets will trip up the Bears in a close game to clinch their own playoff spot.  New York 17 Chicago 14.

• New York 
  • Yes:  WR Santonio Holmes (Probable-toe), TE Dustin Keller, DEF 
  • No:  QB Mark Sanchez (Probable-shoulder), RBs Shonn Greene & LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Jerricho Cotchery, K Nick Folk
  • Maybe So:  WR Braylon Edwards 
• Chicago 
  • Yes:  TE Greg Olsen, DEF
  • No:  QB Jay Cutler, RB Chester Taylor, WR Devin Hester, K Robbie Gould 
  • Maybe So:  RB Matt Forte, WRs Johnny Knox & Earl Bennett (Probable-ankle) 

San Francisco at St. Louis - Those who love chaos and anarchy should root for a 4934 victory and a Seahawk loss - that would leave 3 teams atop the NFC West with 6-9 records with just one game remaining.  Sadly, the Rams will refuse to cooperate.  St. Louis 24 San Francisco 21

• San Francisco 
  • Yes:  WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, DEF
  • No:  QB Alex Smith, RB Brian Westbrook, K Jeff Reed
  • Maybe So:  QB Troy Smith, RB Anthony Dixon (Questionable-ankle), WR Josh Morgan (Probable-shoulder) 
• St. Louis 
  • Yes:  WRs Danny Amendola & Brandon Gibson, TE Daniel Fells, DEF
  • No:  K Josh Brown 
  • Maybe So:  QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson, WRs Laurent Robinson & Danario Alexander 

Tennessee at Kansas City - Tennessee has a quarterback with an injured thumb and a future Hall of Fame wide receiver who hasn’t even been targeted the last two games.  Still, they’ll prevent Kansas City from popping champagne corks.  Tennessee 27 Kansas City 24

• Tennessee 
  • Yes:  QB Kerry Collins (Probable-finger), RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, TE Jared Cook, DEF, K Rob Bironas (Probable-groin) 
  • No:  RB Javon Springer, WRs Justin Gage & Randy Moss
  • Maybe So:  WR Nate Washington 
• Kansas City 
  • Yes:  RBs Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones, WR Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Moeaki
  • No:  DEF, K Ryan Succop 
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Cassel, WR Chris Chambers 

Baltimore at Cleveland - Two teams headed in opposite directions will continue along their merry ways.  Baltimore 24 Cleveland 14.

• Baltimore 
  • Yes:  RB Ray Rice, WRs Anquan Boldin & Derrick Mason (Probable-ankle), TE Todd Heap (Questionable-thigh), DEF 
  • No:  RBs Willis McGahee & Le’Ron McClain, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, K Billy Cundiff
  • Maybe So:  QB Joe Flacco 
• Cleveland 
  • Yes:  TE Ben Watson, DEF
  • No:  QB Colt McCoy; RB Peyton Hillis (Probable-knee); WRs Josh Cribbs (Probable-foot), Mohamed Massaquoi, & Brian Robiskie, K Phil Dawson 
  • Maybe So:  None 

Indianapolis at Oakland (Sunday late) - Peyton Manning is back on track, and Nnamdi Asomugha may not be at full strength.  However, Manning’s receiving corps resembles a mash unit, and the Raiders will run at will on their way to an upset victory.  Oakland 24 Indianapolis 21.

• Indianapolis 
  • Yes:  QB Peyton Manning, RB Donald Brown, WRs Reggie Wayne & Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, DEF 
  • No:  RBs Joseph Addai (Questionable-neck), Javarris James, & Mike Hart (Questionable-ankle); WR Austin Collie (IR-concussion), K Adam Vinatieri
  • Maybe So:  WR Blair White 
• Oakland 
  • Yes:  RBs Darren McFadden & Michael Bush, WR Jacoby Ford, TE Zach Miller (Probable-foot), DEF
  • No:  QB Jason Campbell, WR Louis Murphy, K Sebastien Janikowski 
  • Maybe So:  None 

Houston at Denver - Regardless of how healthy Arian Foster is, this game figures to be a shootout.  Even though the game has zero playoff implications, it may well be the most entertaining game of the weekend.  Denver 31 Houston 30.

• Houston 
  • Yes:  QB Matt Schaub (Probable-elbow), RB Arian Foster (Probable-hip), WR Andre Johnson (Questionable-ankle), TE Owen Daniels, K Neil Rackers (Probable-hamstring) 
  • No:  TE Joel Dreessen, DEF
  • Maybe So:  RB Derrick Ward, WRs Kevin Walter & Jacoby Jones 
• Denver 
  • Yes:  QB Tim Tebow; WRs Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, & Eddie Royal (Probable-back)
  • No:  RBs Knowshon Moreno (Questionable-ribs) & Lance Ball, DEF, Ks Matt Prater (IR-groin) & Steve Hauschka 
  • Maybe So:  WR Demaryius Thomas (Questionable-ankle) 

San Diego at Cincinnati - Cincinnati’s season has been one prolonged train wreck, while San Diego’s started out as a train wreck but has turned around.  Still, due to a head-scratching loss to the Raiders at home a couple of weeks ago, the Chargers find themselves still chasing the surprising Chiefs.  They should have little trouble with the hapless Bengals.  San Diego 28 Cincinnati 10.

• San Diego 
  • Yes:  QB Philip Rivers, RB Mike Tolbert, WRs Vincent Jackson & Legedu Naanee, DEF 
  • No:  WR Malcom Floyd (Doubtful-hamstring), TE Antonio Gates (Out-foot), K Nate Kaeding
  • Maybe So:  RB Ryan Mathews, WR Seyi Ajirotutu, TE Randy McMichael 
• Cincinnati 
  • Yes:  TE Jermaine Gresham
  • No:  QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WR Terrell Owens (IR-knee), DEF, K Clint Stitser 
  • Maybe So:  WRs Chad Ochocinco (Questionable-ankle), Jordan Shipley, & Andre Caldwell

New York Giants at Green Bay - Green Bay almost pulled off a stunning upset in New England last weekend without quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  As you may have heard, the Giants figured out a way to shut down Michael Vick for 52 minutes.  The Giants will play a full game this week and reprise their dramatic victory in the 2008 NFC Championship game (sarcastic trivia question:  who was the Packer quarterback who through the game-changing interception in overtime in that game?).  New York 20 Green Bay 17.

• New York 
  • Yes:  RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE Kevin Boss, DEF, K Lawrence Tynes 
  • No:  QB Eli Manning
  • Maybe So:  WRs Mario Manningham (Probable-heel) & Derek Hagan 
• Green Bay 
  • Yes:  WR Greg Jennings, DEF
  • No:  QB Aaron Rodgers (Probable-concussion), RBs Brandon Jackson & James Starks, WRs James Jones & Jordy Nelson, TE Anthony Quarless, K Mason Crosby 
  • Maybe So:  WR Donald Driver 

Seattle at Tampa Bay - Week 1 brought us the Battle of the Steve Smiths.  Week 14 brought us the Battle of the Zach Millers.  Week 16 brings us the Battle of the Mike Williamses.  Regardless of who wins the wide receiver battle, Tampa Bay will win the game, throwing yet another monkey wrench into the wild, wacky NFC West.  Tampa Bay 27 Seattle 17.

• Seattle 
  • Yes:  WR Mike Williams, TE John Carlson 
  • No:  QB Matt Hasselbeck, DEF, K Olindo Mare
  • Maybe So:  RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Ben Obomanu 
• Tampa Bay 
  • Yes:  QB Josh Freeman, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Mike Williams, TE Kellen Winslow (Probable-knee), DEF, K Connor Barth
  • No:  None 
  • Maybe So:  WR Arrelious Benn 

Minnesota at Philadelphia (Sunday night) - Brett Favre looked like he may have played his final game last Monday night.  Michael Vick led an amazing comeback against the Giants Sunday afternoon.  Logic suggests the Eagles should win handily, but there’s nothing logical about the NFL.  Minnesota 24 Philadelphia 21.

• Minnesota 
  • Yes:  RB Adrian Peterson (Questionable-knee)/Toby Gerhart (whoever starts), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, DEF 
  • No:  WR Greg Camarillo, K Ryan Longwell
  • Maybe So:  QB Joe Webb/Brett Favre (Doubtful-concussion) (whoever starts), WRs Percy Harvin & Sidney Rice 
• Philadelphia 
  • Yes:  QB Michael Vick, WRs DeSean Jackson (Probable-foot) & Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, DEF
  • No:  WR Jason Avant (Probable-concussion), K David Akers 
  • Maybe So:  RB LeSean McCoy 

New Orleans at Atlanta (Monday night) - The winner of this NFC South showdown will likely win the division crown.  The loser will almost certainly make it as a wild card.  Drew Brees should find his receivers open often enough to lead his team to victory.  New Orleans 27 Atlanta 24.

• New Orleans 
  • Yes:  QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, DEF, K Garrett Hartley 
  • No:  RBs Chris Ivory (Questionable-hamstring), Reggie Bush, & Pierre Thomas
  • Maybe So:  WRs Lance Moore, Robert Meachem (Probable-toe), & Devery Henderson; TE Jeremy Shockey 
• Atlanta 
  • Yes:  RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White (Questionable-knee), TE Tony Gonzalez
  • No:  WR Michael Jenkins, DEF, K Matt Bryant 
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Ryan 

Good luck in your fantasy league championship games this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Week 15 was another relatively quiet week on the injury front.  Of course, you’ll probably disagree with that statement if you happened to be an Adrian Peterson owner with a playoff matchup last weekend, but if you’re still reading this post, I’ll take that as a good sign.

Who are the players who are injured, and who may be on your league’s waiver wire with the potential to make a difference for your fantasy team?

Quarterback

• Injuries/benchings - (those that weren’t on this list last week)
  • Donovan McNabb (benched)
  • Matt Hasselbeck (benched)
  • Alex Smith (benched) 
  • Brett Favre (concussion)
• Waiver wire targets (rankings based on projected playing time and Week 16 matchups)
  • Tim Tebow (vs Hou)
  • Rex Grossman (@ Jac)
  • Kerry Collins (@ KC)
  • Colt McCoy (vs Bal)
  • Jimmy Clausen (@ Pit)
  • Jason Campbell (vs Ind)
  • Chad Henne (vs Det)
  • John Skelton (vs Dal)
  • Joe Webb (@ Phi) 

Running Back

• Injuries/benchings
  • Adrian Peterson (ankle)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Tashard Choice (@ Ari)
  • Donald Brown (@ Oak)
  • Rashad Jennings (vs Was)
  • Marshawn Lynch (@ TB)
  • Toby Gerhart (@ Phi)
  • Maurice Morris (@ Mia) 

Wide Receivers

• Injuries/benchings  
  • Austin Collie (concussion)
  • Terrell Owens (knee)
  • Jason Avant (concussion)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Anthony Armstrong (@ Jac)
  • Arrelious Benn (vs Sea) 
  • Brandon Gibson (vs SF) 
  • Laurent Robinson (vs SF)
  • Kevin Walter (@ Den)
  • Jacoby Jones (@ Den)
  • Josh Morgan (@ StL)
  • Brian Robiskie (vs Bal)
  • Ben Obomanu (@ TB)
  • Jacoby Ford (vs Ind)
  • Emmanuel Sanders (vs Car)
  • Nate Burleson (@ Mia)
  • Michael Jenkins (vs NO)
  • Derek Hagan (@ GB)
  • James Jones (vs NYG)
  • Andre Caldwell (vs SD)

Tight Ends

• Injuries/benchings
  • Heath Miller (concussion)
• Waiver Wire Targets
  • Ben Watson (vs Bal)
  • Jimmy Graham (@ Atl)
  • Kevin Boss (@ GB) 
  • Jared Cook (@ KC)
  • Joel Dreessen (@ Den)
  • Daniel Fells (vs SF)
  • Jeremy Shockey (@ Atl)

Kicker

• Injuries/benchings  - None
• Waiver wire targets
  • David Buehler (@ Ari)
  • Graham Gano (@ Jac)
  • Matt Prater (vs Hou)
  • Connor Barth (vs Sea)

Defense

• Injuries/benchings - N/A (at least I hope so)
• Waiver wire targets
  • St. Louis (vs SF) 
  • Cincinnati (vs SD)
  • Detroit (@ Mia)
  • Carolina (@ Pit)

Final Thoughts

• Here’s hoping Brett Favre finally has the good sense to call it a career.
• Here’s hoping Donovan McNabb has better luck next year with a new team.   
• The winner of the New Orleans-Atlanta game will likely represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

What holiday maxim does Tom Coughlin disagree with?  How do you protect yourself when Rex Ryan is near?  Find out by reading our latest football blog entry on The Huffington Post!  Here’s the link :   http://huff.to/gKo4C4

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio