Thursday Morning Quarterback - Week 13 Recommendations (Thu 12/2/10)
Wednesday, December 1st, 2010Hi everyone,
This is the last week of the fantasy regular season for many of you - every lineup decision is critical if you’re on the playoff bubble. Which big names are in for a bad week, and which unheralded players can put you over the top this week? Here are my recommendations for Week 13 - all games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted:
Houston at Philadelphia (Thursday night) - Cynics claim Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson wasn’t suspended for his fight last weekend with Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan because the Texans are featured on this week’s Thursday game. Regardless, Johnson will play, but Michael Vick will bounce back from a subpar performance against the Bears and lead the Eagles to victory in a high-scoring game. Philadelphia 34 Houston 24.
- Houston
- Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup): QB Matt Schaub (Probable-knee), RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, TE Joel Dreessen (Probable-knee)
- No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup): TE Owen Daniels (Out-hamstring), DEF, K Neil Rackers
- Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option): WRs Jacoby Jones & Kevin Walter (Questionable-calf)
- Philadelphia
- Yes: QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WRs DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, DEF, K David Akers
- No: None
- Maybe So: WR Jason Avant
Jacksonville at Tennessee (Sunday early) - Jacksonville would already be out of the playoff picture if not for a 59-yard field goal and a Hail Mary deflection. Tennessee’s season is doomed due to Vince Young’s injury. Still, this will be an interesting game to watch, and the home team will prevail. Tennessee 27 Jacksonville 24.
- Jacksonville
- Yes: QB David Garrard (Questionable-wrist), RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WRs Mike Sims-Walker & Mike Thomas, TE Marcedes Lewis
- No: DEF, K Josh Scobee
- Maybe So: None
- Tennessee
- Yes: RB Chris Johnson, DEF, K Rob Bironas
- No: None
- Maybe So: QB Kerry Collins/Rusty Smith (whoever starts); WRs Randy Moss, Justin Gage, & Nate Washington; TEs Bo Scaife (Questionable-neck) & Jared Cook
Chicago at Detroit - For all the talk about how awful Jay Cutler and the offensive line have looked, the Bears are 8-3 with a chance to snag home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. For all the talk about Ndamukong Suh and how much offensive firepower they now possess, the Lions will miss the playoffs for the 97th year in a row (or so it seems). Detroit will continue a season-long pattern of hanging close but falling short in the end. Chicago 28 Detroit 21.
- Chicago
- Yes: RB Matt Forte, WR Johnny Knox, TE Greg Olsen, DEF
- No: K Robbie Gould
- Maybe So: QB Jay Cutler, WRs Devin Hester & Earl Bennett
- Detroit
- Yes: QB Drew Stanton, WRs Calvin Johnson & Nate Burleson (Questionable-hamstring), TE Brandon Pettigrew, DEF
- No: RBs Jahvid Best & Aaron Brown, TE Tony Scheffler (Questionable-ribs), K Dave Rayner/Jason Hanson (Questionable-knee) (whoever starts)
- Maybe So: RB Maurice Morris, WR Bryant Johnson
Cleveland at Miami - Peyton Hillis has been among the biggest surprises in fantasy football this season, but he’s about the only thing the Browns’ offense has going for it. Chad Henne is finally healthy again, and Miami will pull out the victory. Miami 27 Cleveland 21.
- Cleveland
- Yes: RB Peyton Hillis, TE Ben Watson
- Maybe So: QB Jake Delhomme/Colt McCoy (Questionable-ankle) (whoever starts); WRs Josh Cribbs (Questionable-toe), Mohamed Massaquoi, & Brian Robiskie; DEF; K Phil Dawson
- No: None
- Miami
- Yes: QB Chad Henne, RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Davone Bess & Brian Hartline, DEF, K Dan Carpenter
- No: WR Brandon Marshall (Questionable-hamstring)
- Maybe So: RB Ricky Williams, TE Anthony Fasano
Washington at New York Giants - Rarely do I predict a game to be this lopsided. Then again, rearely does a team match up so poorly as the Redskins do with the Giants. This could get ugly quickly. New York 45 Washington 10.
- Washington
- Yes: TE Chris Cooley
- No: QB Donovan McNabb, RBs Keiland Williams & Ryan Torain (Questionable-hamstring), WRs Anthony Armstrong & Santana Moss, DEF, K Graham Gano
- Maybe So: None
- New York
- Yes: QB Eli Manning, RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, WR Mario Manningham, TE Kevin Boss, DEF, K Lawrence Tynes
- No: WRs Hakeem Nicks (Doubtful-leg), Steve Smith (Questionable-arm)
- Maybe So: WR Derek Hagan
Denver at Kansas City - Denver has one of the best passing attacks and one of the worst defenses in football. Kansas City has football’s best rushing game, and a passing game and defense that are just good enough to get the job done. Kansas City will win this shootout on a late Ryan Succop field goal. Kansas City 30 Denver 27.
- Denver
- Yes: QB Kyle Orton; WRs Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, & Eddie Royal, K Matt Prater
- No: RB Knowshon Moreno, DEF, WR Demaryius Thomas (Out-ankle)
- Maybe: None
- Kansas City
- Yes: RBs Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones, WR Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Moeaki, K Ryan Succup
- No: DEF
- Maybe So: QB Matt Cassel, WR Chris Chambers
San Francisco at Green Bay - Back in the mid-1990s 49ers-Packers was one of the league’s marquee matchups. Sadly, that’s no longer the case. San Francisco and Brian Westbrook may have given their fans a sense of false hope by demolishing Arizona on Monday night, but Green Bay will take advantage of a jet-lagged team with a short week to prepare. Green Bay 30 San Francisco 21.
- San Francisco
- Yes: WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis,
- No: RBs Frank Gore (IR-hip), Brian Westbrook, & Anthony Dixon; WR Josh Morgan (Questionable-shoulder), DEF, K Joe Nedney
- Maybe So: QB Troy Smith
- Green Bay
- Yes: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings (Questionable-foot), TE Anthony Quarless, DEF, K Mason Crosby
- No: None
- Maybe So: RB Brandon Jackson; WRs Donald Driver, James Jones, & Jordy Nelson
Buffalo at Minnesota - Adrian Peterson has had a week to let his sprained ankle heal. Steve Johnson has had a week to let his bruised ego heal. Unfortunately for Buffalo their ground game won’t generate enough yardage to keep Minnesota’s defense honest, so the Favres will triumph over the Bills and make it two consecutive wins for new Vikes’ coach Leslie Frazier. Minnesota 24 Buffalo 20.
- Buffalo
- Yes: WR Steve Johnson, DEF, K Rian Lindell
- No: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RBs Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller (Questionable-hamstring), WR Lee Evans
- Maybe So: No
- Minnesota
- Yes: RB Adrian Peterson (Questionable-ankle)/Toby Gerhart (whoever starts), WRs Sidney Rice & Percy Harvin, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, DEF, K Ryan Longwell
- No: None
- Maybe So: QB Brett Favre (Questionable-foot), WR Greg Camarillo
New Orleans at Cincinnati - The fact that rookie Jordan Shipley is now a more reliable fantasy option than former All-Pros Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco tells you all you need to know about how the Bengals’ season has gone. Newly-crowned Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year Drew Brees will continue Cincinnati’s long journey into darkness. New Orleans 28 Cincinnati 17.
- New Orleans
- Yes: QB Drew Brees, RB Chris Ivory, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, DEF
- No: RBs Pierre Thomas (Questionable-ankle) & Reggie Bush, TEs Jeremy Shockey & David Thomas, K Garrett Hartley
- Maybe So: WRs Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, & Devery Henderson
- Cincinnati
- Yes: WR Jordan Shipley, TE Jermaine Gresham
- No: QB Carson Palmer, DEF, K Clint Stitser
- Maybe So: RB Cedric Benson, WRs Terrell Owens & Chad Ochocinco
Oakland at San Diego (Sunday late) - Sure, the Chargers are only 6-5 and still trail the Chiefs by a game in the AFC West. However, you could make a pretty convincing argument that San Diego is playing as well as anyone in their conference right now. Unfortunately, that won’t mean anything in January when Norv Turner’s team will inevitably get knocked out of the playoffs two rounds sooner than they should, but for now that doesn’t matter. San Diego 27 Oakland 14.
- Oakland
- Yes: TE Zach Miller (Questionable-leg)
- No: QBs Jason Campbell & Bruce Gradkowski (Out-shoulder), RB Michael Bush, DEF, K Sebastien Janikowski
- Maybe So: RB Darren McFadden, WRs Louis Murphy & Jacoby Ford
- San Diego
- Yes: QB Philip Rivers, RB Mike Tolbert, WRs Malcom Floyd & Legedu Naanee, TE Antonio Gates, DEF, K Nate Kaeding
- No: RB Ryan Mathews (Questionable-ankle), WRs Vincent Jackson (Doubtful-calf) & Patrick Crayton (Doubtful-wrist)
- Maybe So: RB Darren Sproles
Carolina at Seattle I feel for you if you have to watch this game, especially if you live in neither Washington state nor North Carolina. The less said, the better. Seattle 21 Carolina 17.
- Carolina
- Yes: RB Mike Goodson, TE Dante Rosario, DEF
- No: K John Kasay
- Maybe So: QB Jimmy Clausen; WRs Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, & David Gettis
- Seattle
- Yes: RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Mike Williams (Questionable-foot), TE John Carlson, DEF
- No: QB Matt Hasselbeck, K Olindo Mare
- Maybe So: RB Justin Forsett, WRs Deon Butler & Ben Obomanu
St. Louis at Arizona - When a team with three wins and a six-game losing streak is just two games out of first place this late in the season, that gives you a pretty good idea of just how awful the division is. There’s a very good chance the team that wins this division will finish with a sub-.500 record, and there’s also a very good chance that team will be St. Louis. St. Louis 34 Arizona 14.
- St. Louis
- Yes: QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson, WR Danny Amendola, DEF, K Josh Brown
- No: None
- Maybe So: WRs Danario Alexander & Laurent Robinson
- Arizona
- Yes: WR Larry Fitzgerald
- No: QB Derek Anderson, RBs Beanie Wells & Tim Hightower, WR Early Doucet, DEF, K Jay Feely
- Maybe So: WR Steve Breaston
Atlanta at Tampa Bay - The Falcons’ bandwagon is getting crowded again - better hop on if you can still find room. Tampa is involved in the scrum for the second NFC wild card spot, but a tough loss to Atlanta will make it hard to keep their playoff dreams alive. Atlanta 24 Tampa Bay 21.
- Atlanta
- Yes: RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White (Questionable-knee), TE Tony Gonzalez, DEF
- No: K Matt Bryant
- Maybe So: QB Matt Ryan, WR Michael Jenkins
- Tampa Bay
- Yes: QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, TE Kellen Winslow, DEF
- No: RBs LeGarrette Blount & Cadillac Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, K Connor Barth
- Maybe So: None
Dallas at Indianapolis - Both teams come off disappointing efforts in Week 12. Dallas was a Roy Williams’ fumble away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champions. Indianapolis gave no indication they were a Super Bowl team last year in the drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Chargers at home. Indianapolis will not be embarrassed two weeks in a row at home. Indianapolis 34 Dallas 21.
- Dallas
- Yes: TE Jason Witten
- No: QB Jon Kitna, RBs Felix Jones & Marion Barber (Questionable-calf), WR Roy Williams, DEF, K David Buehler
- Maybe So: WRs Miles Austin & Dez Bryant
- Indianapolis
- Yes: QB Peyton Manning, WRs Reggie Wayne & Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, DEF, K Adam Vinatieri
- No: RB Joseph Addai (Questionable-neck), WR Austin Collie (Questionable-concussion)
- Maybe So: RB Donald Brown
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Sunday night) - You can almost count on a close, hard-fought game when these two teams play each other. Offense will be at a premium for both sides, but the Ravens will get just a bit more than the Steelers to grab the victory. Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 17.
- Pittsburgh
- Yes: RB Rashard Mendenhall, WRs Hines Ward & Mike Wallace, TE Heath Miller, DEF
- No: QB Ben Roethlisberger (Questionable-foot); WR Emmanuel Sanders, K Shaun Suisham
- Maybe So: None
- Baltimore
- Yes: WRs Anquan Boldin & Derrick Mason, TE Todd Heap, DEF, K Billy Cundiff
- No: RBs Ray Rice & Willis McGahee, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
- Maybe So: QB Joe Flacco
New York Jets at New England (Monday night) - Rex Ryan says he came to New York to “kick Bill Belichick’s ass”. Bill Belichick says nothing in response. Bill Belichick does nothing in response now that his team has been busted for taping opponents’ practices. He arrives. He watches. He conquers. He disdains the traditional post-game handshake after yet another home victory. New England 30 New York 27.
- New York
- Yes: QB Mark Sanchez, RBs Shonn Greene & LaDainian Tomlinson, WRs Santonio Holmes & Braylon Edwards, TE Dustin Keller
- No: WR Jerricho Cotchery (Questionable-groin), DEF, K Nick Folk
- Maybe So: None
- New England
- Yes: QB Tom Brady (Probable-foot), WRs Wes Welker & Deion Branch, K Shayne Graham
- No: RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Danny Woodhead, DEF
- Maybe So: TEs Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez
Good luck to your teams this week, and have a great weekend!
The Sherpa
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