The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here are the latest batch of players who’ve had their preseason projections updated:

• Chris Baker (TE, NE) - revised projections upward (moved up depth chart) 
• Antonio Chatman (WR, Cin) - removed from database (ankle injury - out for season) 
• Yamon Figurs (WR, Bal) - removed from database (cut)
• Charlie Frye (QB, Oak) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Jeff Garcia (QB, Oak) - removed from database (cut)
• Skyler Green (WR, NO) - removed from database (cut)
• D.J. Hackett (WR, Was) - removed from database (cut)
• Bruce Hall (RB, Buf) - removed from database (cut) 
• Justin Harper (WR, Bal) - removed from database (cut)
• Darcy Johnson (TE, NYG) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• James Johnson (RB, Cin) - removed from database (cut)
• Malcolm Kelly (WR, Was) - revised projections upward (moved up depth chart)
• Matt Lawrence (RB, Bal) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Michael Matthews (TE, NE) - revised projections (traded from NYG to NE)
• Buck Ortega (TE, NO) - removed from database (moved down depth chart)
• Jalen Parmele (RB, Bal) - added to database (moved up depth chart)
• Allen Patrick (RB, NYG) - removed from database (cut)
• Cedric Peerman (RB, Bal) - removed from database (cut)
• Courtney Roby (WR, NO) - removed from database (cut)
• Dominic Rhodes (RB, Buf) - removed from database (cut)
• Gary Russell (RB, Oak) - removed from database (cut)
• JaMarcus Russell (QB, Oak) - revised projections upward (Jeff Garcia cut)
• Alex Smith (TE, NE) - removed from database (cut)
• David Thomas (TE, NO) - added to database (acquired in trade from NE)
• Devin Thomas (WR, Was) - revised projections downward (moved down depth chart) 
• Marcus Thomas (RB, Den) - removed from database (cut)
• Darius Walker (RB, Den) - removed from database (cut)
• Ben Watson (TE, NE) - revised projections downward (moved down depth chart)

Please let me know if you see any moves I may have missed, and I’ll be happy to update the database.

More updates to come as developments warrant.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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The bye weeks are finally behind us - hurray!  While this may decrease the demand somewhat for week-to-week waiver wire pickups, there are still several important reasons to remain vigilant, if not active:  (1) there’s always the potential that players currently on waivers may improve your team’s starting lineup or your depth, (2) injuries (current or potential) are always a concern, and (3) the team that gets you into your fantasy league’s playoffs isn’t necessarily the same team that will allow you to win your league’s championship - matchups matter! (aka - the Sherpa’s Golden Rule)

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck (LT), Jeff Garcia (LT), Ryan Fitzpatrick (LT), Rex Grossman (ST), Shaun Hill (SPEC), Kerry Collins (SPEC), Daunte Culpepper (SPEC), Drew Stanton (SPEC).

Running Backs

Michael Bush (SPEC), Dantrell Savage (SPEC), Ahman Green (SPEC), Jerome Harrison (SPEC).

Wide Receivers

Bobby Wade (LT), Bobby Engram (LT), Mark Bradley (SPEC), Mark Clayton (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC), Brandon Stokley (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Jerry Porter (SPEC), Chris Henry (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Malcom Floyd (SPEC), Justin Gage (SPEC), Koren Robinson (SPEC), Jerheme Urban (SPEC), Josh Morgan (SPEC), Jordy Nelson (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Alex Smith (LT), Todd Heap (LT), Robert Royal (SPEC), David Martin (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC).

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Jay Feely (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Nick Folk (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC), Josh Brown (SPEC), Olindo Mare (SPEC), Jeff Reed (SPEC).

Defenses

Dallas (LT), Washington (SPEC), Cleveland (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Not too many injuries of note this week, although those of you who were holding onto Laurence Maroney in hopes he would return later this season will undoubtedly be looking for another Running Back.

4 teams have their byes Week 8: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Adrian Peterson

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen, Donald Lee, Visanthe Shiancoe

Kickers

Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Ryan Longwell

Defenses

Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (LT), J.T. O`Sullivan (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Jeff Garcia (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Cassel (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC).

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Jamaal Charles (LT), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (ST), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Leon Washington (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Bryant (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Josh Morgan (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Steve Smith (NYG version) (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Patrick Crayton (ST), Ike Hilliard (ST), Hank Baskett (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Josh Reed (SPEC), Javon Walker (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis (LT), John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Billy Miller (ST), David Martin (SPEC), Robert Royal (SPEC), L.J. Smith (SPEC), Vernon Davis (SPEC)

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Rian Lindell (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Dave Carpenter (LT), Shayne Graham (SPEC)

Defenses

Tennessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Buffalo (LT), Jacksonville (LT), Houston (ST), Indianapolis (SPEC), Oakland (SPEC), New England (SPEC), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa