The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVII.  Some will root for Colin Kaepernick, Patrick Willis, Jim Harbaugh, and the San Francisco 49ers.  Some will root for Ray Lewis, Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh, and the Baltimore Ravens.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Beyonce’s halftime show.

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at The Superdome in New Orleans.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Ravens’ score and the vertical axis to represent the 49ers’ score.  Then, if the 49ers are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-six Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 184 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 46 Super Bowls.

Several observations:

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (52.6%).

• Almost half of the squares (45) have never been winners.  But take heart - when the score at the end of last year’s Super Bowl was New England 17, New York 15 at the end of the third quarter, that marked the first time that the (7,5) combination had come up in Super Bowl history!

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

Yahoo! Sports recently hosted a fantasy football draft for the mayors of 11 well-known cities (a league commissioner from Yahoo! is also participating to give the league 12 teams).  Each team is required to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST.  The scoring system is fairly standard (4 pts per passing TD, 1 pt for every 25 yds passing, no points for a reception, etc.)

This contest is for a great cause - the winning mayor gets $15K to donate to the charity of his/her choice!  At the risk of receiving hate mail from 11 Chambers of Commerce, I decided it would be fun to predict the results of this contest using my projections from FantasyFootballSherpa.com.

Here are the participants (City, Mayor):

1. Buffalo (Byron Brown)
2. Green Bay (Jim Schmitt)
3. Kansas City (Mark Funkhouser)
4. Minneapolis (R.T. Rybak)
5. Oakland (Ron Dellums)
6. Oklahoma City (Mick Cornett)
7. Orlando (Buddy Dyer)
8. Pittsburgh (Luke Ravenstahl)
9. Sacramento (Kevin Johnson)
10. San Francisco (Gavin Newsom)
11. Tampa Bay (Pam Iorio)
12. Yahoo! (Oz?)

Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champion - does that give Mayor Luke Ravenstahl an edge?  Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson is a former NBA star - would that knowledge of what it takes to be a successful pro athlete give him an edge?  8 of the 11 cities in the contest currently have NFL franchises - would that give their mayors an edge?

Here’s how I see the contest playing out (cities listed alphabetically by tier):

Leaders of the Pack

1. Buffalo
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (LaDainian Tomlinson & Willie Parker)
     • starting WRs (Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Lance Moore)
     • D/ST (Philadelphia)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Trent Edwards
2. Kansas City 
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook)
     • starting WRs (Roddy White, Wes Welker, Jerricho Cotchery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Earnest Graham, Willis McGahee)
     • WR depth (Jeremy Maclin, Nate Burleson, Amani Toomer)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Matt Cassel
     • WR Amani Toomer (since cut)
     • K Ryan Succup
3. Oklahoma City 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Schaub)
     • starting WRs (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Torry Holt)
     • RB depth (Donald Brown, Felix Jones, Darren Sproles)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
4. Sacramento
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Ryan)
     • starting RBs (Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Zach Miller)
     • WR depth (Deion Branch, Isaac Bruce)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

With a Little Bit of Luck

1. Orlando
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Antonio Gates)
     • RB depth (Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Julius Jones)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting D/ST (Arizona)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
2. Pittsburgh
   • Strengths
     • starting WRs (Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward)
     • WR depth (Kevin Walter, Donnie Avery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Donovan McNabb)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Hines Ward

Stuck in the Middle

1. Green Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting RB (Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas)
     • starting WR (Steve Smith (Car), Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall)
   • Causes for Concern
     • WR depth (Steve Breaston)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Ryan Grant
     • K Mason Crosby
     • Green Bay D/ST
2. Oakland
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams)
     • starting TE (Tony Gonzalez)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting WR (Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Donald Driver)
     • QB depth (Joe Flacco)
     • RB depth (Justin Fargas, Ricky Williams)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Justin Fargas
     • WR Darrius Heyward-Bey

Help

1. Minneapolis
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Phillip Rivers)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Visanthe Shiancoe) 
     • QB depth (Matt Hasselbeck) 
     • RB depth (Cedric Benson)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Bernard Berrian 
     • TE Visanthe Shiancoe
     • K Ryan Longwell
     • Minnesota D/ST
2. San Francisco 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Peyton Manning)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno) 
     • starting WRs (Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Percy Harvin) 
     • WR depth (Domenik Hixon)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Frank Gore
     • TE Vernon Davis
     • K Joe Nedney
3. Tampa Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Chris Cooley)
     • starting D/ST (Pittsburgh)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Ben Roethlisberger) 
     • starting WRs (Terrell Owens, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester) 
     • WR depth (Michael Clayton, Hakeem Nicks)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Michael Clayton
4. Yahoo!
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Drew Brees)
     • starting TE (Owen Daniels)
     • WR depth (Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Smith (NYG), Joey Galloway)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Steven Jackson, Kevin Smith)
     • starting WRs (Roy Williams, Ted Ginn, Derrick Mason)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

In case you’re curious, you can view the rosters and current standings.

So, which mayor will be presenting an oversized check to their favorite charity when the champion is crowned?  With the usual caveats about the unpredictable nature of injuries and their ability to wreak havoc on the strongest of fantasy football rosters, my predicted winner is Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.  Let the games begin!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter 

For those whose fantasy football leagues let fate play a major part in deciding your league champion, this one’s for you.  Holding your league’s championship game during Week 17, when many playoff-bound teams rest their regulars, may make things more interesting (read:  random), but if that’s what you’re up against, then read on.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  You’ll notice that Jim Sorgi is conspicuously absent.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Seneca Wallace.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Kevin Faulk, Lamont Jordan, Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Chris Henry, Bobby Engram, Jerheme Urban, Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Donald Lee, Anthony Fasano, Desmond Clark.

Kickers

Matt Prater, Robbie Gould, Neil Rackers, Olindo Mare, Sebastian Janikowski.

Defenses

Seattle, Atlanta.

Until Friday,

The Sherpa

We finally come to the last of the bye weeks, and the last 4 teams have their byes Week 10: Cincinnati, Dallas (for whom the bye week couldn’t come at a better time), Tampa Bay, and Washington.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jeff Garcia, Jason Campbell

Running Backs

Marion Barber, Earnest Graham, Clinton Portis

Wide Receivers

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Antonio Bryant, Santana Moss

Tight Ends

Alex Smith, Chris Cooley (I’m assuming Jason Witten was already out of your starting lineup last week)

Kickers

Shayne Graham, Nick Folk, Steve Suisham

Defenses

Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Sage Rosenfels (ST), Rex Grossman (ST), Shaun Hill (SPEC), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), Tyler Thigpen (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Brady Quinn (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC),

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles (LT), Ray Rice (LT), Kevin Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC), Ryan Torain (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins (LT), Reggie Williams (ST), Rashied Davis (SPEC), Steve Smith (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Robert Royal (LT), David Martin (LT), Desmond Clark (ST), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Neil Rackers (LT), Mason Crosby (LT), Jay Feely (LT), John Kasay (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Joe Nedney (SPEC)

Defenses

Indianapolis (LT), NY Jets (LT)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 9: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Francisco.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Philp Rivers

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Deuce McAllister (you may need to replace him for more than just this week!), LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Chris Chambers, Victor Jackson

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates

Kickers

John Kasay, Taylor Melhaff, Nate Kaeding, Joe Nedney

Defenses

Carolina

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Dan Orlovsky (SPEC), Gus Frerotte (SPEC)

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Kolby Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ted Ginn (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Josh Brown (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Robbie Gould (SPEC)

Defenses

Cleveland (ST), Atlanta (ST)
Until next time,

The Sherpa

Not too many injuries of note this week, although those of you who were holding onto Laurence Maroney in hopes he would return later this season will undoubtedly be looking for another Running Back.

4 teams have their byes Week 8: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Adrian Peterson

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen, Donald Lee, Visanthe Shiancoe

Kickers

Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Ryan Longwell

Defenses

Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (LT), J.T. O`Sullivan (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Jeff Garcia (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Cassel (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC).

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Jamaal Charles (LT), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (ST), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Leon Washington (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Bryant (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Josh Morgan (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Steve Smith (NYG version) (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Patrick Crayton (ST), Ike Hilliard (ST), Hank Baskett (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Josh Reed (SPEC), Javon Walker (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis (LT), John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Billy Miller (ST), David Martin (SPEC), Robert Royal (SPEC), L.J. Smith (SPEC), Vernon Davis (SPEC)

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Rian Lindell (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Dave Carpenter (LT), Shayne Graham (SPEC)

Defenses

Tennessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Buffalo (LT), Jacksonville (LT), Houston (ST), Indianapolis (SPEC), Oakland (SPEC), New England (SPEC), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Since Wednesday is often the day that fantasy football leagues process their free agent/waiver wire claims, today I’ll focus on some potentially useful players who may be available in your league.  Many team owners are wondering where to turn after injuries to Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Maurice Morris, Marques Colston, Darren McFadden, and others - the Sherpa is here to help!

Quarterback

Amazingly, Jon Kitna and Kurt Warner are still available in a number of leagues.  I’d describe them as the “anti-Roethlisbergers” - they’re more useful to a fantasy team than they are to NFL teams (imagine if you were penalized even more for interceptions/fumbles in key situations in your fantasy league!)  If either happens to be available in your league this week, he’s definitely worth a pick-up (especially if you were a Tom Brady owner).  I doubt you’d find any other QBs available this week who are capable of throwing for 3,500+ yards and 30+ TDs!  If Kitna and Warner are already taken in your league, other widely-available options include Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, and JaMarcus Russell.  I’d take a chance on Matt Cassel only if the previous options were all unavailable.  I’d steer clear of Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Depending on the number of teams and bench spots your league uses, the pickings could be pretty slim here.  In the unlikely event Justin Fargas or Julius Jones are available in your league, they’re definitely worth a claim.  Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson is also likely unavailable in your league.  More likely options include Sammy Morris, Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Jackson, and Leon Washington.

Wide Receiver

Rookies Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson both had impressive debuts this past weekend.  With Brandon Marshall returning this week for Denver, I think it’s highly unlikely Royal will approach his Week 1 stats anytime soon again.  However, I do like Jackson’s potential to continue posting impressive stats throughout his rookie season.  Royal becomes more attractive than he would be otherwise in leagues that give individual players Kickoff Return yardage, but I still prefer Jackson.  With Marques Colston out for an estimated 4-6 weeks, see if any of the Saints’ WRs are available (David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, in that order).  Kevin Walter, Matt Jones, Devard Darling, and Courtney Taylor are some other potentially useful WRs who may be available in your league this week.

Tight Ends

I like Anthony Fasano, Chris Baker, and Marcedes Lewis more than I like Dante Rosario.

Kickers

Unless you had Mike Nugent on your team, you probably aren’t (and shouldn’t be) looking for a replacement based on just one game.  However, if you did have Nugent on your team (or don’t wish to heed my previous advice), Jason Hanson, Steve Suisham, John Carney, Matt Bryant, and Matt Stover would be my recommended options based on their teams’ matchups this week.

Defenses

As with the Kickers I wouldn’t be looking to make any changes here after one week (even if you own the Rams’ defense!).  If you like to switch Defenses from week to week based on matchups, some Defenses that may be available whose matchups I like this week include Arizona (vs Miami), Carolina (vs Chicago), Detroit (vs Green Bay), Houston (vs. Baltimore), Oakland (at Kansas City), and Kansas City (versus Oakland - yes, I don’t expect much offense in this game!).

Good luck with your claims!

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa