The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Congratulations to those who advanced to the finals in your league’s playoffs as a result of the Week 15 games!  One more challenge to be met before you can be crowned champion of your league and have bragging rights for the next year (or at least until next year’s draft)!  Actually, two more if you happen to be an unfortunate owner with Reggie Bush in your starting lineup.  Since Bush has been placed on Injured Reserve and is done for the season, you’ll need to find a replacement.  Some of you may also be looking for free agents with more favorable matchups than those for the players currently on your roster.

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  As was the case last week, any players on this list are just one-week recommendations at this point.

Quarterbacks

Seneca Wallace, Tarvaris Jackson, Marc Bulger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell.

Running Backs

DeShaun Foster, Kevin Faulk, Fred Jackson, Lamont Jordan.

Wide Receivers

Michael Jenkins, Bobby Wade, Ike Hilliard, Josh Reed, Davone Bess, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Sidney Rice, Chris Henry, James Jones.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, David Martin, Billy Miller.

Kickers

Garrett Hartley, Joe Nedney, Josh Brown, Joe Nedney, Jason Hanson, Dan Carpenter, Connor Barth.

Defenses

Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Denver.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Welcome to “meaningful December football” - congrats to those of you who’ve already qualified for your league’s playoffs, and good luck to those who are still in contention and need a final victory this weekend to get your foot in the door.  On the injury front there were several “big names” who went out with injuries this past weekend (both football-related and self-inflicted) - QBs Derek Anderson & Trent Edwards, and of course, WR Plaxico Burress.  Anderson and Burress are both out for the season - actually, Burress’ career may very well be over - even in the NFL there isn’t much of a market for 34-year-old ex-cons, which is what Burress would be if he is convicted of illegal possession of a firearm and serves 3 years in prison.  Still, chances are you weren’t relying heavily on any of the three at this point, so hopefully the impact on your fantasy team is minimal.

Just in case you need to add a player this week due to injury, suspension, or a bad matchup, here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT) (i.e. - the rest of the season), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners this week (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again in subsequent weeks.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team this week (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton (LT), Daunte Culpepper (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Kerry Collins (ST), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Ryan Fitzpatrick (SPEC), J.P. Losman (SPEC), Matt Schaub (SPEC).

Running Backs

Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC), Tashard Choice (SPEC), Kenneth Darby (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Davonne Bess (LT), Josh Reed (LT), Bobby Engram (LT), Shaun McDonald (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Brandon Jones (ST), Justin Gage (ST), Brandon Stokley (ST), Malcom Floyd (ST), Steve Smith (SPEC), Amani Toomer (SPEC), Mark Clayton (SPEC), Reggie Williams (SPEC), Hank Baskett (SPEC).

Tight Ends

Donald Lee (LT), Heath Miller (ST), Billy Miller (SPEC), Daniel Graham (SPEC), Desmond Clark (SPEC), Marcedes Lewis (SPEC).

Kickers

Jay Feely (LT), Joe Nedney (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Robbie Gould (LT), Garrett Hartley (LT), Connor Barth (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Dan Carpenter (LT).

Defenses

San Diego (LT), Dallas (ST), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

4 teams have their byes Week 9: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Francisco.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Philp Rivers

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Deuce McAllister (you may need to replace him for more than just this week!), LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Chris Chambers, Victor Jackson

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates

Kickers

John Kasay, Taylor Melhaff, Nate Kaeding, Joe Nedney

Defenses

Carolina

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Dan Orlovsky (SPEC), Gus Frerotte (SPEC)

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Kolby Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ted Ginn (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Josh Brown (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Robbie Gould (SPEC)

Defenses

Cleveland (ST), Atlanta (ST)
Until next time,

The Sherpa

Not too many injuries of note this week, although those of you who were holding onto Laurence Maroney in hopes he would return later this season will undoubtedly be looking for another Running Back.

4 teams have their byes Week 8: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Adrian Peterson

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen, Donald Lee, Visanthe Shiancoe

Kickers

Robbie Gould, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Ryan Longwell

Defenses

Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (LT), J.T. O`Sullivan (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Jeff Garcia (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Matt Cassel (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC).

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Jamaal Charles (LT), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (ST), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC), Patrick Cobbs (SPEC), Leon Washington (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Maurice Morris (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Bryant (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Josh Morgan (LT), Ted Ginn (LT), Steve Smith (NYG version) (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Patrick Crayton (ST), Ike Hilliard (ST), Hank Baskett (SPEC), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Josh Reed (SPEC), Javon Walker (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC)

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis (LT), John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Billy Miller (ST), David Martin (SPEC), Robert Royal (SPEC), L.J. Smith (SPEC), Vernon Davis (SPEC)

Kickers

Jason Elam (LT), Rian Lindell (LT), Josh Brown (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Neil Rackers (LT), Jason Hanson (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Dave Carpenter (LT), Shayne Graham (SPEC)

Defenses

Tennessee (LT), Tampa Bay (LT), Buffalo (LT), Jacksonville (LT), Houston (ST), Indianapolis (SPEC), Oakland (SPEC), New England (SPEC), Washington (SPEC)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Injuries to Quarterbacks Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, and Carson Palmer will doubtlessly send many fantasy football team owners scrambling to the free agent/waiver wire this week - I’ll give some suggestions below on the best replacements to target if you’re among them.

4 teams have their byes Week 7: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb

Running Backs

Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood, Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Correll Buckhalter (I’m assuming you’ve already removed Brian Westbrook from your starting lineup).

Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald (again, I’m assuming you’ve already removed Anquan Boldin from your starting lineup), Roddy White, Matt Jones, DeSean Jackson.

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis, L.J. Smith

Kickers

Neil Rackers, Jason Elam, Josh Scobee, David Akers

Defenses

Jacksonville, Philadelphia

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Trent Edwards (LT), Gus Frerotte (LT), Dan Orlovsky (ST), Chad Pennington (ST),  Brad Johnson (ST), Kerry Collins (ST), Marc Bulger (ST), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC)

Running Backs

Dominic Rhodes (ST),  Kevin Smith (SPEC), Michael Bush (SPEC), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Jamaal Charles (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ike Hilliard (LT), Greg Camarillo (LT), Sean McDonald (LT), Mike Furrey (LT), Justin Gage (LT), Ted Ginn (SPEC), Steve Smith (NY Giants version) (SPEC), Donnie Avery (SPEC), Jordy Nelson (SPEC), Ronald Curry (SPEC)

Tight Ends

John Carlson (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Bo Scaife (LT), Donald Lee (LT), Desmond Clark (ST), David Martin (SPEC),  Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Shayne Graham (LT), Stephen Gostkowski (LT), Ryan Longwell (LT), Jeff Reed (LT), Rob Bironas (LT), Taylor Melhaff (LT), Rian Lindell (ST), Olindo Mare (ST), Joe Nedney (ST), Sebastian Janikowski (ST)

Defenses

Texans (vs Det), Patriots (vs Den), Dolphins (vs Bal), Redskins (vs Cle)

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Most team owners’ fantasy football roster changes after Week 1 fall into one of two categories:  (1) moves necessitated by injuries, and (2) reactions to players’ disappointing performances.  If you owned Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Marques Colston, Maurice Morris, etc., you probably need to make a roster move this week.  However, if you own Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Peyton Manning, Braylon Edwards, etc., don’t let their disappointing performances in Week 1 tempt you to do something rash (i.e. - trading them for below-market value) or dumb (i.e. - dropping them).

If Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez goes 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on baseball’s Opening Day, their fantasy owners would be disappointed, if not upset, but would realize that it’s just one game out of 162.  However, with football teams having just 10% of the number of games their baseball brethern do, every game’s results are magnified - both for better or for worse.

On the other hand, don’t get too giddy if some of your players exceeded expectations during Week 1.  Does anyone really believe that Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario will be among the league leaders at their respective positions at the end of the season?  Me neither.  Put another way, if someone offers you Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson for Michael Turner this week, or Braylon Edwards for Matt Jones, or Peyton Manning for Donovan McNabb, quickly accept the deal before the other owner has a chance to change their mind!

Reversing the roles for a minute, if you are the owner of Matt Ryan, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, etc., see what other team owners in your league would be willing to give up to obtain these Week 1 wonders.  You may be surprised.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa