The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Yahoo! Sports recently hosted a fantasy football draft for the mayors of 11 well-known cities (a league commissioner from Yahoo! is also participating to give the league 12 teams).  Each team is required to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST.  The scoring system is fairly standard (4 pts per passing TD, 1 pt for every 25 yds passing, no points for a reception, etc.)

This contest is for a great cause - the winning mayor gets $15K to donate to the charity of his/her choice!  At the risk of receiving hate mail from 11 Chambers of Commerce, I decided it would be fun to predict the results of this contest using my projections from FantasyFootballSherpa.com.

Here are the participants (City, Mayor):

1. Buffalo (Byron Brown)
2. Green Bay (Jim Schmitt)
3. Kansas City (Mark Funkhouser)
4. Minneapolis (R.T. Rybak)
5. Oakland (Ron Dellums)
6. Oklahoma City (Mick Cornett)
7. Orlando (Buddy Dyer)
8. Pittsburgh (Luke Ravenstahl)
9. Sacramento (Kevin Johnson)
10. San Francisco (Gavin Newsom)
11. Tampa Bay (Pam Iorio)
12. Yahoo! (Oz?)

Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champion - does that give Mayor Luke Ravenstahl an edge?  Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson is a former NBA star - would that knowledge of what it takes to be a successful pro athlete give him an edge?  8 of the 11 cities in the contest currently have NFL franchises - would that give their mayors an edge?

Here’s how I see the contest playing out (cities listed alphabetically by tier):

Leaders of the Pack

1. Buffalo
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (LaDainian Tomlinson & Willie Parker)
     • starting WRs (Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Lance Moore)
     • D/ST (Philadelphia)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Trent Edwards
2. Kansas City 
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook)
     • starting WRs (Roddy White, Wes Welker, Jerricho Cotchery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • RB depth (Earnest Graham, Willis McGahee)
     • WR depth (Jeremy Maclin, Nate Burleson, Amani Toomer)
   • Homer picks
     • QB Matt Cassel
     • WR Amani Toomer (since cut)
     • K Ryan Succup
3. Oklahoma City 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Schaub)
     • starting WRs (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Torry Holt)
     • RB depth (Donald Brown, Felix Jones, Darren Sproles)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
4. Sacramento
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Matt Ryan)
     • starting RBs (Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Zach Miller)
     • WR depth (Deion Branch, Isaac Bruce)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

With a Little Bit of Luck

1. Orlando
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Antonio Gates)
     • RB depth (Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Julius Jones)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting D/ST (Arizona)
   • Homer picks (N/A)
2. Pittsburgh
   • Strengths
     • starting WRs (Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward)
     • WR depth (Kevin Walter, Donnie Avery)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Donovan McNabb)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Hines Ward

Stuck in the Middle

1. Green Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting RB (Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas)
     • starting WR (Steve Smith (Car), Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall)
   • Causes for Concern
     • WR depth (Steve Breaston)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Ryan Grant
     • K Mason Crosby
     • Green Bay D/ST
2. Oakland
   • Strengths
     • starting RBs (Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams)
     • starting TE (Tony Gonzalez)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting WR (Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Donald Driver)
     • QB depth (Joe Flacco)
     • RB depth (Justin Fargas, Ricky Williams)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Justin Fargas
     • WR Darrius Heyward-Bey

Help

1. Minneapolis
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Phillip Rivers)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting TE (Visanthe Shiancoe) 
     • QB depth (Matt Hasselbeck) 
     • RB depth (Cedric Benson)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Bernard Berrian 
     • TE Visanthe Shiancoe
     • K Ryan Longwell
     • Minnesota D/ST
2. San Francisco 
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Peyton Manning)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno) 
     • starting WRs (Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Percy Harvin) 
     • WR depth (Domenik Hixon)
   • Homer picks
     • RB Frank Gore
     • TE Vernon Davis
     • K Joe Nedney
3. Tampa Bay 
   • Strengths
     • starting TE (Chris Cooley)
     • starting D/ST (Pittsburgh)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting QB (Ben Roethlisberger) 
     • starting WRs (Terrell Owens, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester) 
     • WR depth (Michael Clayton, Hakeem Nicks)
   • Homer picks
     • WR Michael Clayton
4. Yahoo!
   • Strengths
     • starting QB (Drew Brees)
     • starting TE (Owen Daniels)
     • WR depth (Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Smith (NYG), Joey Galloway)
   • Causes for Concern
     • starting RBs (Steven Jackson, Kevin Smith)
     • starting WRs (Roy Williams, Ted Ginn, Derrick Mason)
   • Homer picks (N/A)

In case you’re curious, you can view the rosters and current standings.

So, which mayor will be presenting an oversized check to their favorite charity when the champion is crowned?  With the usual caveats about the unpredictable nature of injuries and their ability to wreak havoc on the strongest of fantasy football rosters, my predicted winner is Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.  Let the games begin!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter 

4 teams have their byes Week 9: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, and San Francisco.  Unless you’re in a league that’s so competitive that team owners speculate on players with bye weeks, I’d avoid picking up anyone from any of these teams this week.

Here’s a list of players who are probably on a roster in your league and will need to be replaced because of the bye week if they’re in a starting lineup:

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Philp Rivers

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Deuce McAllister (you may need to replace him for more than just this week!), LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Chris Chambers, Victor Jackson

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates

Kickers

John Kasay, Taylor Melhaff, Nate Kaeding, Joe Nedney

Defenses

Carolina

Here’s a list of recommended free agent/waiver wire pickups who may be available in your league.  I’ll give an indication of whether I believe these players should be picked up for just the short term (ST), for the long term (LT), or as speculation plays (SPEC).  Short term recommendations are players who should help fantasy owners in the next few weeks (due to injuries, benchings, suspensions, favorable schedules, etc.) but who will probably drop in value again later in the season.  Long term recommendations are players who have the potential to help their owners’ fantasy teams for the remainder of the current season.  Speculation plays are players who are unlikely to help your fantasy team in the short run (barring injuries, benchings, suspensions, etc.) but may have value later this season or in future seasons (for those in Keeper leagues).

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (LT), Marc Bulger (LT), Chad Pennington (LT), Matt Hasselbeck (SPEC), JaMarcus Russell (SPEC), Joe Flacco (SPEC), Dan Orlovsky (SPEC), Gus Frerotte (SPEC)

Running Backs

Kevin Smith (LT), Kolby Smith (LT), Kevin Faulk (SPEC), Fred Jackson (SPEC),  Michael Bush (SPEC), Ahmad Bradshaw (SPEC), Ray Rice (SPEC), Lamont Jordan (SPEC), Kenny Watson (SPEC), Selvin Young (SPEC)

Wide Receivers

Ted Ginn (LT), Bobby Wade (LT), Chansi Stuckey (SPEC), Michael Jenkins (SPEC), Demetrius Williams (SPEC), Brandon Jones (SPEC), Shaun McDonald (SPEC), Mike Furrey (SPEC),

Tight Ends

Visanthe Shiancoe (LT), Alex Smith (LT), Dustin Keller (SPEC)

Kickers

Josh Brown (LT), Matt Prater (LT), Dan Carpenter (SPEC), Robbie Gould (SPEC)

Defenses

Cleveland (ST), Atlanta (ST)
Until next time,

The Sherpa

Most team owners’ fantasy football roster changes after Week 1 fall into one of two categories:  (1) moves necessitated by injuries, and (2) reactions to players’ disappointing performances.  If you owned Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Marques Colston, Maurice Morris, etc., you probably need to make a roster move this week.  However, if you own Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Peyton Manning, Braylon Edwards, etc., don’t let their disappointing performances in Week 1 tempt you to do something rash (i.e. - trading them for below-market value) or dumb (i.e. - dropping them).

If Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez goes 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on baseball’s Opening Day, their fantasy owners would be disappointed, if not upset, but would realize that it’s just one game out of 162.  However, with football teams having just 10% of the number of games their baseball brethern do, every game’s results are magnified - both for better or for worse.

On the other hand, don’t get too giddy if some of your players exceeded expectations during Week 1.  Does anyone really believe that Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario will be among the league leaders at their respective positions at the end of the season?  Me neither.  Put another way, if someone offers you Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson for Michael Turner this week, or Braylon Edwards for Matt Jones, or Peyton Manning for Donovan McNabb, quickly accept the deal before the other owner has a chance to change their mind!

Reversing the roles for a minute, if you are the owner of Matt Ryan, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, etc., see what other team owners in your league would be willing to give up to obtain these Week 1 wonders.  You may be surprised.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Since Wednesday is often the day that fantasy football leagues process their free agent/waiver wire claims, today I’ll focus on some potentially useful players who may be available in your league.  Many team owners are wondering where to turn after injuries to Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Maurice Morris, Marques Colston, Darren McFadden, and others - the Sherpa is here to help!

Quarterback

Amazingly, Jon Kitna and Kurt Warner are still available in a number of leagues.  I’d describe them as the “anti-Roethlisbergers” - they’re more useful to a fantasy team than they are to NFL teams (imagine if you were penalized even more for interceptions/fumbles in key situations in your fantasy league!)  If either happens to be available in your league this week, he’s definitely worth a pick-up (especially if you were a Tom Brady owner).  I doubt you’d find any other QBs available this week who are capable of throwing for 3,500+ yards and 30+ TDs!  If Kitna and Warner are already taken in your league, other widely-available options include Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, and JaMarcus Russell.  I’d take a chance on Matt Cassel only if the previous options were all unavailable.  I’d steer clear of Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Depending on the number of teams and bench spots your league uses, the pickings could be pretty slim here.  In the unlikely event Justin Fargas or Julius Jones are available in your league, they’re definitely worth a claim.  Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson is also likely unavailable in your league.  More likely options include Sammy Morris, Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Jackson, and Leon Washington.

Wide Receiver

Rookies Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson both had impressive debuts this past weekend.  With Brandon Marshall returning this week for Denver, I think it’s highly unlikely Royal will approach his Week 1 stats anytime soon again.  However, I do like Jackson’s potential to continue posting impressive stats throughout his rookie season.  Royal becomes more attractive than he would be otherwise in leagues that give individual players Kickoff Return yardage, but I still prefer Jackson.  With Marques Colston out for an estimated 4-6 weeks, see if any of the Saints’ WRs are available (David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, in that order).  Kevin Walter, Matt Jones, Devard Darling, and Courtney Taylor are some other potentially useful WRs who may be available in your league this week.

Tight Ends

I like Anthony Fasano, Chris Baker, and Marcedes Lewis more than I like Dante Rosario.

Kickers

Unless you had Mike Nugent on your team, you probably aren’t (and shouldn’t be) looking for a replacement based on just one game.  However, if you did have Nugent on your team (or don’t wish to heed my previous advice), Jason Hanson, Steve Suisham, John Carney, Matt Bryant, and Matt Stover would be my recommended options based on their teams’ matchups this week.

Defenses

As with the Kickers I wouldn’t be looking to make any changes here after one week (even if you own the Rams’ defense!).  If you like to switch Defenses from week to week based on matchups, some Defenses that may be available whose matchups I like this week include Arizona (vs Miami), Carolina (vs Chicago), Detroit (vs Green Bay), Houston (vs. Baltimore), Oakland (at Kansas City), and Kansas City (versus Oakland - yes, I don’t expect much offense in this game!).

Good luck with your claims!

The Sherpa