The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVI.  Some will root for Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (if he’s able to play), Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots.  Some will root for Eli Manning, Victor “Salsa” Cruz, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Giants.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Madonna’s halftime show.

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Giants’ score and the vertical axis to represent the Patriots’ score.  Then, if the Patriots are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-five Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 180 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 45 Super Bowls.

Several observations:

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (53.9%).

• Almost half of the squares (46) have never been winners.

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone, 

The always-challenging act of setting your lineup gets a bit more challenging for the next seven weeks as we enter the bye week portion of the schedule.  Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Dallas have their byes this week, so be sure to keep players from those teams out of your lineups and see if Dez Bryant will be willing to treat you and your 50 closest friends to a steak dinner.  Here are my recommendations for Week 4 - all games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted:

New York Jets at Buffalo (Sunday early) - Marshawn Lynch has been in Beast Mode lately, but he won’t find room to run against the Jets’ stingy run defense.  The Jets win a game that will be closer than it should be.  New York 24  Buffalo 17.

• New York 
  • Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup):  RBs Shonn Greene & LaDainian Tomlinson, WR Braylon Edwards, TE Dustin Keller, DEF
  • No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup):  K Nick Folk
  • Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option):  QB Mark Sanchez; WRs Jerricho Cotchery
• Buffalo 
  • Yes:  WR Lee Evans
  • No:  RBs Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, & Fred Jackson; DEF, K Rian Lindell
  • Maybe So:  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WRs Steve Johnson & Roscoe Parrish

Denver at Tennessee - Denver’s passing game and Tennessee’s rushing game are among the league’s best, but Kyle Orton manages to lead his team to victory in spite of Chris Johnson’s superhuman effort.  Denver 37 Tennessee 34.

• Denver 
  • Yes:  QB Kyle Orton, WRs Brandon Lloyd & Eddie Royal, K Matt Prater
  • No:  RBs Knowshon Moreno (Questionable-hamstring), Correll Buckhalter, & Laurence Maroney; DEF
  • Maybe So:  WR Jabar Gaffney 
• Tennessee 
  • Yes:  RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, K Rob Bironas
  • No:  DEF
  • Maybe So:  QB Vince Young; RB Javon Springer; WRs Justin Gage, Nate Washington, & Kenny Britt 

Detroit at Green Bay - Detroit’s offense is improved, even with Shaun Hill at the helm, but the Packers will take out their lingering frustrations from Monday night’s loss on the hapless Lion defense.  Green Bay 41 Detroit 17.

• Detroit
  • Yes:  WR Calvin Johnson, TEs Tony Scheffler & Brandon Pettigrew
  • No:  RBs Jahvid Best (Questionable-toe), Maurice Morris, & Kevin Smith; WR Nate Burleson (Questionable-ankle), DEF, K Jason Hanson 
  • Maybe So:  QB Shaun Hill
• Green Bay 
  • Yes:  QB Aaron Rodgers, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, TE Jermichael Finley, DEF, K Mason Crosby
  • No:  WR Jordy Nelson
  • Maybe So:  RBs Brandon Jackson & John Kuhn, WR James Jones

San Francisco at Atlanta - The 49ers will put up a good fight (unlike last week at Kansas City), but they’ll eventually be worn down by the Falcons’ powerful ground game and drop to 0-4.  Atlanta 31 San Francisco 17.

• San Francisco 
  • Yes:  RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis
  • No:  DEF, K Joe Nedney
  • Maybe So:  QB Alex Smith, WRs Michael Crabtree & Josh Morgan 
• Atlanta 
  • Yes:  QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, DEF, K Matt Bryant
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  RB Jason Snelling

Seattle at St. Louis - Rams’ QB Sam Bradford is able to exploit a dreadful Seahawk secondary as Seattle continues its Jekyll & Hyde routine with another road loss.  St. Louis 24 Seattle 21.

• Seattle 
  • Yes:  RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson, DEF
  • No:  RB Leon Washington, K Olindo Mare
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Hasselbeck; WRs Mike Williams (Probable-shoulder), Deion Branch, Deon Butler, & Golden Tate
• St. Louis 
  • Yes:  QB Sam Bradford, WRs Mark Clayton & Danny Amendola, DEF
  • No:  RBs Steven Jackson (Questionable-groin) & Kenneth Darby, K Josh Brown 
  • Maybe So:  None

Carolina at New Orleans - Drew Brees is playing through a knee injury of undetermined severity, but he’s healthy enough to help the Saints rebound from last week’s loss to the Falcons with a vengeance.  New Orleans 34 Carolina 17.

• Carolina 
  • Yes:  RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith
  • No:  DEF, K John Kasay
  • Maybe So:  QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Jonathan Stewart
• New Orleans 
  • Yes: QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey, DEF, K John Carney 
  • No:  RBs Pierre Thomas (Questionable-ankle) & Chris Ivory, K Garrett Hartley
  • Maybe So:  WRs Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, & Lance Moore

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Baltimore will spend most of the game passing; Pittsburgh will spend most of the game rushing.  Baltimore’s slightly more balanced offense carries the day in the matchup of defensive titans and knocks Pittsburgh from the ranks of the unbeaten.  Baltimore 17 Pittsburgh 14.

• Baltimore 
  • Yes:  WR Anquan Boldin, TE Todd Heap, DEF
  • No:  RBs Ray Rice (Questionable-knee) & Willis McGahee, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, K Billy Cundiff
  • Maybe:  QB Joe Flacco, WR Derrick Mason 
• Pittsburgh 
  • Yes:  DEF
  • No:  QB Charlie Batch, WRs Hines Ward & Mike Wallace, K Jeff Reed
  • Maybe So:  RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller

Cincinnati at Cleveland  - Appearances can be deceiving:  Cleveland has lost its three games by a total of 12 points.  Expect this snakebitten franchise’s string of close defeats to continue.  Cincinnati 20 Cleveland 17.

• Cincinnati 
  • Yes: RB Cedric Benson (Questionable-knee), WRs Chad Ochocinco & Terrell Owens, TE Jermaine Gresham, DEF, K Mike Nugent
  • No:  RB Bernard Scott (change to “Yes” if he starts)
  • Maybe So:  QB Carson Palmer, WR Jordan Shipley (Questionable-shoulder) 
• Cleveland 
  • Yes:  RB Peyton Hillis, TE Ben Watson, DEF
  • No:  QB Jake Delhomme (if he starts), RB Jerome Harrison (Questionable-thigh), K Phil Dawson
  • Maybe So:  QB Seneca Wallace (if he starts), WRs Mohamed Massaquoi & Josh Cribbs (Probable-ankle)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Sunday late)  - On any given Sunday in the NFL the lowliest of underdogs is capable of upsetting the heaviest of favorites.  This is not one of those Sundays.  Indianapolis 41 Jacksonville 17.

• Indianapolis 
  • Yes: QB Peyton Manning, WRs Reggie Wayne & Austin Collie, TE Dallas Clark, DEF, K Adam Vinatieri
  • No: WR Pierre Garcon (Questionable-hamstring)
  • Maybe So:  RBs Joseph Addai (Probable-knee) & Donald Brown (Questionable-hamstring)
• Jacksonville
  • Yes:  RB Maurice Jones-Drew, TE Marcedes Lewis
  • No:  QB David Garrard, RB Rashad Jennings, DEF, K Josh Scobee
  • Maybe So:  WRs Mike Sims-Walker & Mike Thomas

Houston at Oakland - This is precisely the kind of game Houston needs to win to show they’re a legitimate playoff contender.  It won’t happen, as Oakland pulls off the upset.  Oakland 27 Houston 24.

• Houston 
  • Yes:  RB Arian Foster 
  • No: WR Andre Johnson (Questionable-ankle), DEF, K Neil Rackers
  • Maybe So:  QB Matt Schaub, WRs Kevin Walter & Jacoby Jones, TE Owen Daniels (Questionable-hamstring)
• Oakland 
  • Yes:  QB Bruce Gradkowski, WRs Louis Murphy (Questionable-clavicle) & Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Zach Miller, K Sebastian Janikowski
  • No:  RBs Darren McFadden & Michael Bush, DEF
  • Maybe So:  None

Philadelphia at Jacksonville - Donovan McNabb has had this game circled on his calendar since last winter.  Michael Vick has had this game circled on his calendar since last week.  Ultimately, it’s Washington’s lousy play in the secondary that makes this an unhappy homecoming for McNabb.  Philadelphia 34 Washington 24.   

• Washington 
  • Yes:  QB Donovan McNabb, WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley
  • No: RB Ryan Torain & Keiland Williams (Probable-ankle), DEF, K Graham Gano
  • Maybe So:  RB Clinton Portis (Probable-wrist)
• Philadelphia 
  • Yes:  QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek (Probable-wrist), DEF, K David Akers
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  WR Jeremy Maclin (Probable-back)

Arizona at San Diego One of the best quarterbacks in the league takes on one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  The outcome will surprise no one.  San Diego 38 Arizona 17.

• Arizona 
  • Yes: WR Larry Fitzgerald
  • No:  QB Derrek Anderson, WRs Steve Breaston (Out-knee) & Stephen Williams, DEF, K Jay Feely
  • Maybe So: RBs Beanie Wells (Questionable-knee) & Tim Hightower
• San Diego 
  • Yes:  QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, WRs Malcom Floyd & Legedu Naanee, TE Antonio Gates, DEF, K Nate Kaeding
  • No:  RB Darren Sproles
  • Maybe So:  RB Mike Tolbert

Chicago at New York Giants (Sunday night) - New York’s only hope of winning is to throw, throw, and throw some more.  They do so just well enough to upset the NFC’s last unbeaten team.  New York 34 Chicago 31.

• Chicago 
  • Yes: QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, TE Greg Olsen, K Robbie Gould
  • No:  WRs Earl Bennett & Devin Aromashodu, DEF
  • Maybe So: WRs Johnny Knox & Devin Hester
• New York 
  • Yes:  QB Eli Manning, WRs Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks, TE Kevin Boss, K Lawrence Tynes
  • No:  RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, WR Mario Manningham (Questionable-concussion), DEF
  • Maybe So:  None 

New England at Miami (Monday night) - Miami plays its second consecutive primetime home game, but finds a way to win this battle of two evenly matched teams.  Miami 27 New England 24

• New England 
  • Yes: QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulder), WRs Randy Moss & Wes Welker, TE Aaron Hernandez
  • No: RBs Fred Taylor (Questionable-toe), Sammy Morris, & Darren Woodhead; DEF; K Stephen Gostkowski 
  • Maybe So: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
• Miami 
  • Yes:  QB Chad Henne, RB Ronnie Brown, WR Brandon Marshall, K Dan Carpenter
  • No:  DEF
  • Maybe So:  RB Ricky Williams, WRs Davone Bess & Brian Hartline, TE Anthony Fasano

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Week 4 is when the “fun” officially starts for fantasy football team owners - not only do you have injuries to deal with, but you also have the first of 7 bye weeks added to the mix.  4 teams have byes this week:  Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay.  Note that if I like a player a lot who’s available in the majority of leagues, but his team has a bye in Week 4 (e.g. - Kansas City TE Tony Moeaki), I will not include him on the waiver wire targets list this week, but will probably do so next week. 

Who are the players who are injured/have byes, and who may be on your league’s waiver wire with the potential to make a difference for your fantasy team?

Quarterback

• Bye weeks
  • Tony Romo
  • Brett Favre
  • Josh Freeman
  • Matt Cassel 
• Injuries/benchings - none (i.e. - no new ones this week)
• Waiver wire targets (rankings based on Week 4 matchups)
  • Mark Sanchez 
  • Bruce Gradkowski  
  • Shaun Hill
  • Sam Bradford
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Back

• Bye weeks
  • Adrian Peterson 
  • Jamaal Charles
  • Thomas Jones
  • Felix Jones
  • Marian Barber
  • Cadillac Williams
• Injuries/benchings
  • Ray Rice (knee)
  • Steven Jackson (groin)
  • Arian Foster (shoulder) 
  • Jahvid Best (turf toe)
  • Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) 
  • Jerome Harrison (thigh)
  • Fred Taylor (toe)
• Waiver wire targets
  • BenJarvus Green-Ellis 
  • Willis McGahee
  • Kenneth Darby
  • Maurice Morris
  • Ryan Torain
  • Keiland Williams

Wide Receivers

• Bye weeks
  • Miles Austin 
  • Percy Harvin 
  • Dez Bryant 
  • Mike Williams (TB) 
  • Dwayne Bowe
  • Dexter McCluster
• Injuries/benchings
  • Andre Johnson (ankle)
  • Steve Breaston (knee)
  • Pierre Garcon (hamstring)
  • Demaryius Thomas (arm/wrist) 
  • Josh Morgan (knee)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Josh Cribbs 
  • Jordan Shipley
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey
  • Jabar Gaffney
  • Brandon Lloyd
  • Lance Moore
  • Davon Bess
  • Brian Hartline
  • Danny Amendola
  • Brandon Gibson

Tight Ends

• Bye weeks
  • Kellen Winslow
  • Jason Witten (also injured-knee)
  • Visanthe Shiancoe (also injured-hamstring)
• Injuries/benchings (none other than Witten & Shiancoe)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Kevin Boss 
  • Jeremy Shockey
  • Brandon Pettigrew
  • Tony Scheffler 
  • Bo Scaife
  • Ben Watson

Kicker

• Bye weeks
  • Ryan Longwell
  • David Buehler
  • Ryan Succop
  • Conor Barth 
• Injuries/benchings - none (although Garrett Hartley is on thin ice in New Orleans)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Robbie Gould 
  • Adam Vinatieri  
  • Mike Nugent
  • Dan Carpenter
  • Matt Bryant
  • Nick Folk 

Defense

• Bye weeks
  • Minnesota
  • Dallas
  • Kansas City
  • Tampa Bay 
• Injuries/benchings - N/A (at least I hope so)
• Waiver wire targets
  • Indianapolis 
  • Atlanta  
  • Seattle
  • Denver 

Final Thoughts

• Detroit is the only team in the league with more fantasy-relevant tight ends (Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew) than wide receivers (Calvin Johnson)
• It doesn’t matter who’s playing quarterback for the Steelers - with that defense they have a chance to win every week.
• Anquan Boldin must thank his lucky stars every day that he’s now catching passes being thrown by Joe Flacco instead of Derek Anderson.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Is Braylon Edwards feeling bad about his DWI? Is Jimmy Clausen ready for his first NFL start?  Find out in my latest football blog entry on The Huffington Post!  Here’s the link:  http://huff.to/aoIpnM  Enjoy! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone, 

With a couple of weeks of NFL action now in the books, there’s finally some real data to look at and use to forecast future performance.  Several notable fantasy stalwarts are currently listed as Questionable (e.g. - Steven Jackson), so be sure to look for updated injury info before setting your final lineups.  If you’ve been disappointed by the relative lack of offensive fireworks the first two weeks of the season, you’ll be a happy camper this weekend.  Here are my recommendations for Week 3 - all games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted:

Tennessee at New York Giants (Sunday early) - The Giants’ offense and defense rebound; the Titans and Brandon Jacobs’ helmet do not.  New York 24  Tennessee 21.

• Tennessee 
  • Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup):  RB Chris Johnson, TE Bo Scaife, DEF
  • No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup):  RB Javon Ringer, K Rob Bironas
  • Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option):  QB Vince Young; WRs Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, & Justin Gage.
• New York 
  • Yes:  QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WRs Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, DEF
  • No:  RB Brandon Jacobs, K Lawrence Tynes
  • Maybe So:  WR Mario Manningham (Probable-illness), TE Kevin Boss (Probable-concussion)

Cincinnati at Carolina - Jimmy Clausen’s debut as a starter goes better than expected, but it’s not enough to keep up with Cincinnati’s offense’s breakout game.  Cincinnati 31 Carolina 20.

• Cinncinati
  • Yes:  QB Carson Palmer, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Terrell Owens (Probable-back), DEF, K Mike Nugent
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  TE Jermaine Gresham
• Carolina 
  • Yes:  RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith (Probable-thigh), K John Kasay
  • No:  WR Brandon LaFell (Questionable-hamstring), DEF
  • Maybe So:  QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Jonathan Stewart

Dallas at Houston - The battle for the state of Texas becomes an old-fashioned shootout.  Matt Schaub keeps the Texans undefeated, the Cowboys winless, and Jerry Jones fuming.  Houston 34 Dallas 27.

• Dallas 
  • Yes:  QB Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones, WRs Miles Austin & Dez Bryant (Questionable-ribs), TE Jason Witten (Probable-concussion), K David Buehler
  • No:  RB Tashard Choice, DEF
  • Maybe So:  RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams 
• Houston 
  • Yes:  QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson (Questionable-ankle), TE Owen Daniels (Questionable-knee), K Neil Rackers
  • No:  DEF
  • Maybe So:  WRs Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones

San Francisco at Kansas City - Alex Smith demonstrates that his performance against New Orleans wasn’t a fluke, and the Chiefs prove that they’re nowhere near being a playoff contender yet.  San Francisco 27 Kansas City 17.

• San Francisco 
  • Yes:  QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, DEF, K Joe Nedney
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  WR Josh Morgan 
• Kansas City 
  • Yes:  WR Dwayne Bowe
  • No:  QB Matt Cassel, WR Dexter McCluster, DEF, K Ryan Succop
  • Maybe So:  RBs  Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay - Pittsburgh quarterback Charlie Batch plays just well enough to win (Ben who?), and for one day Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman’s ascent to stardom is put on hold.  Pittsburgh 24 Tampa Bay 10.

• Pittsburgh 
  • Yes:  RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Hines Ward (Probable-calf), TE Heath Miller, DEF
  • No:  QB Charlie Batch, K Jeff Reed
  • Maybe So:  WR Mike Wallace
• Tampa Bay 
  • Yes:  TE Kellen Winslow (Questionable-knee)
  • No:  QB Josh Freeman (Probable-thumb), RBs Cadillac Williams (Probable-hamstring) and Kareem Huggins (Probable-groin), DEF, K Conor Barth 
  • Maybe So:  WR Mike Williams

Buffalo at New England - The team with the star quarterback, the moody wide receiver, and the muddled backfield beats the team with the new starting quarterback, no fantasy-relevant wide receivers, and the muddled backfield.  New England 34 Buffalo 17.

• Buffalo 
  • Yes:  None
  • No:  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Lee Evans, DEF, K Rian Lindell
  • Maybe So:  RBs Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, & Fred Jackson
• New England 
  • Yes: QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulder), WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker, DEF, K Stephen Gostkowski 
  • No:  RBs Sammy Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Julian Edelman (Questionable-foot)
  • Maybe So:  RB Fred Taylor (Questionable-toe), TE Aaron Hernandez

Cleveland at Baltimore - Having second thoughts about Joe Flacco after the first two games?  Don’t worry, the third time’s the charm.  Baltimore 38 Cleveland 13

• Cleveland
  • Yes:  None
  • No:  QB Seneca Wallace/Jake Delhomme (whichever one starts), RBs Jerome Harrison (Questionable-thigh) and Peyton Hillis, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, DEF, K Phil Dawson
  • Maybe:  WR Josh Cribbs 
• Baltimore
  • Yes:  QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice (Probable-ankle), WR Anquan Boldin, TE Todd Heap (Questionable-shoulder), DEF, K Billy Cundiff
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  WRs Derrick Mason (Questionable-knee) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Detroit at Minnesota  - The Vikings make it look more difficult than it should be, but finally get in the win column.  Shaun King comes back to earth and gets very familiar with the view of the dome’s ceiling lights, courtesy of Jared Allen.  Minnesota 24 Detroit 21

• Detroit 
  • Yes: RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson
  • No:  QB Shaun Hill, WR Nate Burleson (Questionable-ankle), DEF, K Jason Hanson 
  • Maybe So:  TEs Brandon Pettigrew & Tony Scheffler 
• Minnesota 
  • Yes:  QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin (Questionable-hip), TE Visanthe Shiancoe, DEF
  • No:  RB Toby Gerhardt, WR Bernard Berrian (Questionable-knee), K Ryan Longwell
  • Maybe So:  WR Greg Camarillo

Atlanta at New Orleans  - New Orleans has been less than impressive in their 2-0 start.  Atlanta shows why they’re a contender for the crown (assuming they can stay healthy).  Atlanta 28 New Orleans 27.

• Atlanta 
  • Yes: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez
  • No: WRs Michael Jenkins (Questionable-shoulder) and Harry Douglas, DEF, K Matt Bryant
  • Maybe So:  RB Jason Snelling 
• New Orleans 
  • Yes:  QB Drew Brees, RB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, K Garrett Hartley
  • No:  RB Chris Ivory (Probable-knee), WR Lance Moore, DEF
  • Maybe So:  WRs Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, TE Jeremy Shockey

Washington at St. Louis (Sunday late) - Washington rebounds from losing a heartbreaker to thrash a team that made Bruce Gradkowski look respectable.  Washington 31  St. Louis 14

• Washington 
  • Yes:  QB Donovan McNabb, RB Clinton Portis (Probable-wrist), WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley, DEF 
  • No: WR Joey Galloway, K Graham Gano
  • Maybe So:  None
• St. Louis 
  • Yes:  None
  • No:  QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson (Questionable-knee), WRs Mark Clayton and Laurent Robinson (Questionable-foot), DEF, K Josh Brown
  • Maybe So:  None

Philadelphia at Jacksonville - This game won’t be a true test of QB Michael Vick’s ability to lead the team in the face of adversity, which probably explains why head coach Andy Reid made the move this week.  Philadelphia 34 Jacksonville 17   

• Philadelphia 
  • Yes:  QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin
  • No: TE Brent Celek (Probable-chest), DEF, K David Akers
  • Maybe So:  None
• Jacksonville 
  • Yes:  RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Probable-ankle), WR Michael Sims-Walker, TE Marcedes Lewis
  • No:  RB Rashad Jennings, DEF, K Josh Scobee
  • Maybe So:  QB David Garrard, WR Mike Thomas

Indianapolis at Denver Upset alert:  Peyton Manning and his sidekicks looked unbeatable in last Sunday night’s Manning Bowl II, but Denver channels the emotion surrounding wide receiver Kenny McKinley’s death to pull a shocker.  Denver 27 Indianapolis 24

• Indianapolis 
  • Yes: QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai (Questionable-knee), TE Dallas Clark, WRs Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, TE Dallas Clark
  • No:  DEF, K Adam Vinatieri
  • Maybe So: RB Donald Brown, WR Pierre Garcon (Questionable-hamstring)
• Denver 
  • Yes:  QB Kyle Orton, RB Correll Buckhalter, WRs Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas
  • No:  RBs Knowshon Moreno (Out-knee) & Laurence Maroney (Probable-thigh), DEF, K Matt Prater
  • Maybe So:  None

Oakland at Arizona - If a game takes place in the desert and no one is there to watch it, does it make a noizzzzzzzzz?  Arizona 21 Oakland 17

• Oakland 
  • Yes:  RB Darren McFadden, WRs Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Zach Miller, DEF
  • No: QB Bruce Gradkowski, K Sebastian Janikowski
  • Maybe So:  RB Michael Bush (Probable-thumb) 
• Arizona 
  • Yes:  RB Tim Hightower, WR Larry Fitzgerald, DEF, K Jay Feely
  • No:  QB Derek Anderson
  • Maybe So:  WR Steve Breaston (Questionable-knee), RB Beanie Wells (Questionable-knee)

San Diego at Seattle - With San Diego literally heading north, both teams continue to show that their Week 1 performances were flukes.  San Diego 33 Seattle 13

• San Diego 
  • Yes: QB Philip Rivers, WR Malcom Floyd (Probable-leg), DEF, K Nate Kaeding
  • No: RB Ryan Mathews (Out-ankle)
  • Maybe So: RBs Darren Sproles and Mike Tolbert, WR Legedu Naanee
• Seattle 
  • Yes:  RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson
  • No:  QB Matt Hasselbeck, RBs Leon Washington and Julius Jones, DEF, K Olindo Mare
  • Maybe So:  WRs Mike Williams (Probable-thigh), Deon Butler, & Deion Branch

New York Jets at Miami (Sunday night) - This week’s episode of Animal House NFL is shot on location in Miami.  Braylon Edwards stays sober long enough to catch the game-winning touchdown  New York 24 Miami 21

• New York 
  • Yes: RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, WRs Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller, DEF
  • No:  K Nick Folk
  • Maybe So: QB Mark Sanchez
• Miami 
  • Yes:  WR Brandon Marshall
  • No:  QB Chad Henne, DEF, K Dan Carpenter
  • Maybe So:  RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams  

Green Bay at Chicago (Monday night) - Bears fans are legitimately excited about their team’s prospects after a 2-0 start, but they’re not even close to being in Green Bay’s class yet.  Green Bay 31 Chicago 14

• Green Bay 
  • Yes: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Brandon Jackson, WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, TE Jermichael Finley, DEF, K Mason Crosby
  • No: None
  • Maybe So: None
• Chicago 
  • Yes:  QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen
  • No:  DEF, K Robbie Gould
  • Maybe So:  WRs Devin Aromashodu and Earl Bennett

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Week 2 was a bit kinder (if not gentler) than Week 1 in terms of injuries that could have a lasting impact on your fantasy team (although Reggie Bush owners will surely disagree).  There were a number of fantasy mainstays who turned in disappointing results (e.g. - Chris Johnson, Brett Favre), and a number of players who suffered injuries that shouldn’t cause them to miss much, if any, time (e.g. - Michael Turner, Ryan Mathews, Chad Ochocinco, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Jason Witten).  Of course you’ll keep players in both these categories on your roster.  However, Week 2 also saw a number of quarterbacks who were benched.  Some will likely regain their jobs quickly (e.g. - David Garrard, Jason Campbell), but some will not (e.g. - Trent Edwards, Matt Moore, Derek Anderson).

Who are the players who may be on your league’s waiver wire with the potential to make a difference for your fantasy team?

Quarterback

The Jason Campbell and David Garrard benchings were the biggest surprises, especially Campbell’s.  Tom Cable waited half a season before benching JaMarcus Russell, yet feels the need to pull Campbell after just 1 1/2 games - I don’t get it.  Unless you’re supremely confident that this change is permanent (hint:  I’m not), don’t bother adding Bruce Gradkowski to your roster.  Garrard returned at the end of the Jags’ blowout loss to the Chargers after his backup Josh McCown suffered an injury.  Garrard will almost certainly be the starter for Week 3.

Matt Moore was ineffective the week after suffering a “mild concussion” and was pulled in favor of rookie Jimmy Clausen.  Regardless of what you think of Clausen’s sometimes abrasive personality, he’s worth a speculative pickup.  Trent Edwards has been replaced yet again in Buffalo by the equally unexciting Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick is worth a pickup only if you’re in a league of 12 teams or more with two starting quarterbacks. 

Derek Anderson was benched in favor of Max Hall - hopefully, you don’t have Anderson anywhere near your fantasy roster, but on the off chance you do, Hall definitely offers more fantasy potential for those who can afford to be patient.  Finally, Dennis Dixon has likely started his last game for the Steelers this season after suffering a knee injury Sunday.  It’s not clear whether he’ll be replaced by Charlie Batch or roster yo-yo Byron Leftwich, but it is clear that you don’t want to pick either up (much less start them) unless you absolutely have no other options.

Here’s how I rank the options who may be available in your league:  Josh Freeman > Alex Smith > Mark Sanchez > Jimmy Clausen > Max Hall > Ryan Fitzgerald > Seneca Wallace > whichever QB Pittsburgh starts.

Running Back

Reggie Bush is the most notable loss.  Jerious Norwood always seems like he’s on the verge of getting a great opportunity, and then he gets hurt - cut him in the unlikely event he was already on your roster.  Hopefully, you weren’t counting heavily on Kevin Faulk - either way, cut him if he’s on your roster and speculate on someone else.

Marshawn Lynch is the most appealing option who may be availabe - if he isn’t, New England’s Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis is also a worthy speculative add.  If neither of them are available, then speculate on a backup with a high ceiling such as Rashad Jennings, Javon Ringer, Bernard Scott, or even Keiland Williams.

Wide Receivers

Nate Burleson reportedly has a high ankle sprain - whether or not that turns out to be the case, you’re better off speculating on another receiver with a higher ceiling.  Hold on to Braylon Edwards if he’s on your roster, but expect him to be suspended for at least a game of two after his DUI arrest this morning.  If you’re looking for an upgrade, consider Demaryius Thomas, Josh Cribbs, Darrius Heyward-Bey (especially if Gradkowski starts over Campbell), and Jordan Shipley.

Tight Ends

Week 1 wonder Evan Moore suffered a concussion - there are undoubtedly healthier options available.  See if Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Moeaki, or Anthony Fasano are available in your league.  Add Martellus Bennett to the list if Jason Witten is forced to miss Sunday’s game due to his concussion.

Final Thoughts

• Brandon Jacobs, it’s a bad day when your helmet gains 20 more yards than you do.
• Mark Sanchez, I didn’t know you had it in you.
• Braylon Edwards, thanks to your stupidity, we all now know you had it in you.  Of course, since you’re involved, the charges will undoubtedly be dropped.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone, I hope your teams all survived the injury bug in Week 1.  My condolences if you spent an early-round pick on Ryan Grant (as I did in most of my leagues).  Matthew Stafford’s injury also wreaked havoc with my fantasy teams, as did Kevin Kolb’s.  Fortunately, we’re early enough in the season that some shrewd waiver wire pickups, and perhaps a trade or two, can make up for any injuries your team has suffered so far.  Here are my recommendations for Week 2 - all games are Sunday during the day unless otherwise noted:

Baltimore at Cincinnati (Sunday early) - Yes, Baltimore’s defense is as good as it looked Monday night against the Jets.  No, their offense isn’t as bad as it looked Monday night against the Jets - give the Jets’ defense a lot of credit.  Cincinnati’s defense is also better than they showed last weekend, but they may not be as good as I originally thought.  There’s been a lot of trash-talking among the teams’ players via Twitter, but Baltimore will do most of the talking where it counts - on the field.  Baltimore 24  Cincinnati 17.

• Baltimore 
  • Yes (Should definitely be in your starting lineup):  QB Joe Flacco; RB Ray Rice; WRs Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, & T.J. Houshmandzadeh, TE Todd Heap (Questionable-shoulder), DEF
  • No (Should definitely NOT be in your starting lineup):  RB Willis McGahee, K Billy Cundiff
  • Maybe So (Okay to start if you don’t have a better option):  None
• Cincinnati 
  • Yes:  TE Jermaine Gresham, DEF
  • No:  QB Carson Palmer, WR Terrell Owens, K Mike Nugent
  • Maybe So:  RB Cedric Benson, WRs Chad Ochocinco & Jordan Shipley

Chicago at Dallas - Dallas fans are understandably miffed at Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett’s play-calling during last Sunday night’s loss to the Redskins.  Chicago fans are inexplicably still down on quarterback Jay Cutler, who passed for 372 yards with just one interception in last week’s victory that the NFL rulebook stole from the Lions.  Both offenses strut their stuff in this game, but Dallas wins on the strength of a slightly better defense.  Dallas 27 Chicago 20.

• Chicago
  • Yes:  QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WRs Johnny Knox & Devin Aromashodu (Questionable-knee), K Robbie Gould
  • No:  RB Chester Taylor, DEF
  • Maybe So:  WR Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen
• Dallas 
  • Yes:  QB Tony Romo, WRs Miles Austin & Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, DEF, K David Buehler
  • No:  RB Tashard Choice, WR Roy Williams
  • Maybe So:  RBs Felix Jones & Marion Barber

Philadelphia at Detroit - It’s somehow fitting that the two teams whose quarterbacks were knocked out early last weekend face each other in Week 2.  Philly’s backup Michael Vick is more talented than Detroit’s backup Shaun Hill, and he’s surrounded by a better supporting cast.  Philadelphia is able to overcome all of its injuries on the defensive side of the ball and muffle the Lions’ roar.  Philadelphia 30 Detroit 17.

• Philadelphia 
  • Yes:  QB Kevin Kolb (Questionable-concussion) (if he starts), QB Michael Vick (if he starts), RB LeSean McCoy, WRs DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, K David Akers, DEF
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  None 
• Detroit
  • Yes:  WR Calvin Johnson, TE Tony Scheffler
  • No:  QB Shaun Hill, WR Nate Burleson, DEF, K Jason Hanson
  • Maybe So:  RB Jahvid Best

Arizona at Atlanta - Atlanta’s defense held up well against Pittsburgh’s offense (with one notable exception on the final play of the game).  Arizona’s offense was predictably awful with Beanie Wells out, Tim Hightower fumbling, and Derek Anderson quarterbacking, but they did just enough to beat St. Louis.  The wheels come off this week for Arizona, Atlanta wins easily, and Cardinal fans will be chanting for backup quarterback Max Hall at next week’s home opener.  Atlanta 28 Arizona 14.

• Arizona 
  • Yes:  RBs Tim Hightower & Beanie Wells (Questionable-knee), WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Steve Breaston
  • No:  QB Derek Anderson, DEF, K Jay Feely
  • Maybe So:  None
• Atlanta 
  • Yes:  QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, T Tony Gonzalez, DEF
  • No:  K Matt Bryant 
  • Maybe So:  None

Kansas City at Cleveland - Don’t be fooled by Kansas City’s victory Monday night over the Chargers - their offense gained only half as many yards as the Chargers’ offense.  Then again, the Chargers don’t have Dexter McCluster returning kicks, which explains a lot.  Cleveland lost a game in Tampa it should have won, and now quarterback Jake Delhomme is hurting.  Expect Cleveland to win a close game in the this week’s Battle of the Bottom-feeders (Part 1).  Cleveland 21 Kansas City 20.

• Kansas City 
  • Yes: QB Matt Cassel, RBs Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones, WR Dwayne Bowe, DEF, K Ryan Succop
  • No: None
  • Maybe So: WRs Chris Chambers & Dexter McCluster, TE Tony Moeaki
• Cleveland 
  • Yes: QB Seneca Wallace (if he starts), RBs Jerome Harrison & Peyton Hillis, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, TEs Evan Moore & Ben Watson, DEF 
  • No:  QB Jake Delhomme (Questionable-ankle) (if he starts), WRs Josh Cribbs & Chansi Stuckey, K Phil Dawson
  • Maybe So:  None

Buffalo at Green Bay - Buffalo looked terrible against a mediocre offense and defense.  In spite of losing running back Ryan Grant for the season Green Bay looked good against an above-average offense and defense.  Grant’s absence will hardly be noticed in this game as Brandon Jackson takes over and rushes for 100+ yards.  Green Bay 38 Buffalo 10

• Buffalo
  • Yes:  None
  • No:  QB Trent Edwards, RBs Fred Jackson & Marshawn Lynch, WRs Steve Johnson & Roscoe Parrish, DEF, K Rian Lindell
  • Maybe:  RB C.J. Spiller, WR Lee Evans 
• Green Bay
  • Yes:  QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Brandon Jackson, WRs Greg Jennings & Donald Driver, TE Jermichael Finley, DEF, K Mason Crosby
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  None

Pittsburgh at Tennessee - Both defenses looked dominant last week, although Pittsburgh’s performance was more impressive, given the competition.  Tennessee’s offense also looked impressive, but again, Oakland offered little more than token resistance.  Pittsburgh will keep the clamps on Chris Johnson, but emerging quarterback Vince Young makes just enough plays to earn his team a hard-fought victory.  Tennessee 17 Pittsburgh 14

• Pittsburgh 
  • Yes: RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller, DEF
  • No:  QB Dennis Dixon, WR Mike Wallace, K Jeff Reed 
  • Maybe So:  WR Hines Ward 
• Tennessee 
  • Yes:  TE Bo Scaife, DEF
  • No:  RBs Chris Johnson & Javon Ringer; WRs Nate Washington, Justin Gage, & Kenny Britt; K Rob Bironas
  • Maybe So:  QB Vince Young

Tampa Bay at Carolina - Tampa did just enough to win their opener against an unimpressive Cleveland team.  An equally uninspiring performance against the Panthers will render them a tiny speck in the rear-view mirror.  Carolina 24 Tampa Bay 10.

• Tampa Bay 
  • Yes: WR Mike Williams, TE Kellen Winslow (Questionable-knee)
  • No: RB Kareem Huggins (Questionable-groin), DEF, K Connor Barth
  • Maybe So:  QB Josh Freeman (Probable-thumb), RB Cadillac Williams, WR Sammie Stroughter 
• Carolina 
  • Yes:  RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WR Steve Smith, DEF
  • No:  QBs Matt Moore (Questionable-concussion) & Jimmy Clausen (whichever one starts), WRs Dwayne Jarrett & Brandon LaFell (Questionable-hamstring, K John Kasay
  • Maybe So:  None

Miami at Minnesota - Miami’s unlikely to have any success rushing the ball against Minnesota, and Chad Henne’s performance against the Bills’ defense didn’t inspire confidence.  Meanwhile, Brett Favre figures to have much more success passing the ball against the Dolphins’ defense than he did against the Saints’ secondary.  Minnesota 24  Miami 14

• Miami 
  • Yes:  WR Brandon Marshall, TE Anthony Fasano 
  • No: QB Chad Henne, RBs Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, WR Davone Bess, DEF, K Dan Carpenter
  • Maybe So:  None
• Minnesota 
  • Yes:  QB Brett Favre (Probable-ankle/back), RB Adrian Peterson, WRs Percy Harvin (Questionable-hip) & Bernard Berrian, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, DEF
  • No:  RB Toby Gehart (Probable-knee), K Ryan Longwell
  • Maybe So:  WR Greg Camarillo

St. Louis at Oakland (Sunday late) - Although neither of these teams will be playing in Dallas in February, this appears to be one of the more even matchups for Week 2 (even if it is the Battle of the Bottom-feeders Part Deux) .  Do not expect anything remotely close to an encore performance from St. Louis WR Mark Clayton, who will likely be shadowed by Raider CB Nnamdi Asomugha (Questionable-groin).  Oakland’s offensive line stops being offensive just long enough to allow quaterback Jason Campbell to make the plays necessary to give the Raiders the victory.  Oakland 27 St. Louis 24  

• St. Louis 
  • Yes:  QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson (Questionable-knee), WR Danny Amendola
  • No: WRs Mark Clayton & Laurent Robinson (Questionable-ankle), DEF, K Josh Brown
  • Maybe So:  WR Brandon Gibson
• Oakland 
  • Yes:  QB Jason Campbell, RBs Darren McFadden & Michael Bush (Probable-thumb), WR Louis Murphy, TE Zach Miller, K Sebastien Janikowski
  • No:  WR Darius Heward-Bey, DEF
  • Maybe So:  None

Seattle at Denver - It’s hard to believe Seattle is as good as they looked last week against San Francisco, and it’s hard to believe that Denver is as bad as they looked last week against Jacksonville.  Seattle puts up a good fight, but Kyle Orton has a big day, and Denver wins going away.  Denver 27 Seattle 17

• Seattle 
  • Yes: RB Justin Forsett, TE John Carlson
  • No:  RBs Leon Washington & Julius Jones; WRs Mike Williams (Questionable-thigh), Deon Butler, & Deion Branch, DEF, K Olindo Mare
  • Maybe So: QB Matt Hasselbeck
• Denver 
  • Yes:  QB Kyle Orton, RB Knowshon Moreno, W Eddie Royal (Questionable-thigh), DEF, K Matt Prater
  • No:  RBs Correll Buckhalter & Laurence Maroney, WR Brandon Lloyd
  • Maybe So:  WR Jabbar Gaffney

Houston at Washington - Houston’s offense looked invincible last weekend against the Colts, but Peyton Manning exposed holes in the defense, especially the secondary.  Assuming Donovan McNabb’s healthy enough to play, he’ll also exploit those weaknesses.  Arian Foster will struggle for yardage against the Redskins’ underrated defense, but the Matt Schaub-Andre Johnson connection will come to life and allow Houston to staft the season 2-0.  Houston 24 Washington 21

• Houston 
  • Yes:  QB Matt Schaub, WRs Andre Johnson & Kevin Walter (Probable-hip), TE Owen Daniels (Questionable-thumb), DEF
  • No: RB Arian Foster, K Neil Rackers
  • Maybe So:  WR Jacoby Jones 
• Washington 
  • Yes:  QB Donovan McNabb (Probable-ankle), RB Clinton Portis (Probable-wrist, inane remarks), WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley
  • No:  RB Larry Johnson, DEF, K Graham Gano
  • Maybe So:  WR Anthony Armstrong

New England at New York Jets - This week The Slouch (aka Randy Moss) gets to spend the day on Revis Island.  Don’t expect a big game from Moss, but Tom Brady has enough other weapons at his disposal that it won’t matter.  New York’s Shonn Greene shows up for this week’s game, but Mark Sanchez will continue to show New York fans (and all fans, for that matter) that he’s not yet ready to quarterback a self-annointed Super Bowl contender (and probably never will be).  New England 27 New York 14

• New England 
  • Yes: QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulder), WR Wes Welker, DEF, K Stephen Gostkowski
  • No: RBs Fred Taylor (Questionable-toe), Sammy Morris, & BenJarvus Green-Ellis; TEs Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, & Aaron Hernandez
  • Maybe So: RB Kevin Faulk, WRs Julian Edelman (Questionable-foot) & Brandon Tate
• New York Jets 
  • Yes:  RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller
  • No:  QB Mark Sanchez, WRs Braylon Edwards & Jerricho Cotchery, DEF, K Nick Folk
  • Maybe So:  RB LaDainian Tomlinson

Jacksonville at San Diego - Like Kansas City, San Diego’s Week 1 opponent, Jacksonville won last weekend in spite of gaining fewer offensive yards than their opponent.  That will not be the case this week.  Philip Rivers shows that he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the league with a dry football in his hands, and San Diego wins easily in spite of a couple of Maurice Jones-Drew touchdowns.  San Diego 41 Jacksonville 21

• Jacksonville 
  • Yes: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR Mike Sims-Walker, TE Marcedes Lewis
  • No: RB Rashad Jennings, DEF, K Josh Scobee
  • Maybe So: QB David Garrard, WR Mike Thomas
• San Diego 
  • Yes:  QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, WR Malcom Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, DEF, K Nate Kaeding
  • No:  None
  • Maybe So:  RB Darren Sproles, WR Legedu Naanee  

New York Giants at Indianapolis (Sunday night) - The Manning brothers square off for only the second time in an NFL regular season game, and the scoreboard operators may have a hard time keeping up with the offensive fireworks.  New York has the better ground game and the better defense, but that’s not enough to overcome Indy’s aerial advantage.  Indianapolis 31 New York 27

• New York 
  • Yes: QB Eli Manning, RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, WRs Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks (Questionable-ankle), K Lawrence Tynes
  • No:  TE Kevin Boss (Out-concussion), DEF 
  • Maybe So:  WR Mario Manningham, TE Travis Beckum
• Indianapolis 
  • Yes:  QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, K Adam Vinatieri
  • No:  DEF
  • Maybe So:  RB Donald Brown, WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie

New Orleans at San Francisco (Monday night) - Both teams’ offenses were dormant in their season openers, and San Francisco’s defense was AWOL too.  All three units are back in business for this game, but New Orleans’ passing attack proves to be too much for the resilient 49ers to overcome.  New Orleans 24 San Francisco 21

• New Orleans 
  • Yes: QB Drew Brees, RBs Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush, WR Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey, DEF
  • No: K Garrett Hartley
  • Maybe So: WR Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, & Lance Moore
• San Francisco 
  • Yes:  RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis
  • No:  RB Brian Westbrook, WR Ted Ginn, TE Delanie Walker, DEF, K Joe Nedney
  • Maybe So:  QB Alex Smith, WR Josh Morgan

Good luck to your teams this weekend! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone,

Hope that you enjoyed the first weekend of NFL action and that the fates went easy on your teams this weekend injury-wise.  Then again, I’m guessing I’m not the only one who had Ryan Grant and Matthew Stafford on many of my fantasy teams and thought I’d gotten a pair of draft-day bargains.  In one 2 QB league I actually started Stafford and Kevin Kolb and had Grant as my RB.  Needless to say, I came in second in that matchup.

But you didn’t come here to get a detailed description of how my fantasy teams did last weekend (or at least I hope not).  You’re here because you want to know how to best fill in the gaps in your lineup or to speculate on a free agent or two.  So without further ado, let’s get to it:

Quarterback

This position was undoubtedly hit the hardest Week 1 (as it often is).  Stafford is out at least 4-6 weeks with a shoulder sprain, Kevin Kolb and Matt Moore suffered concussions, and Jake Delhomme has an ankle injury that may keep him out for Week 2.  So, should you pick up Shaun Hill, Michael Vick, Jimmy Clausen, and/or Seneca Wallace?  Not necessarily.  Before adding any of those backup signal-callers to your roster, check first to see whether David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith (yes, he looked horrible Sunday - it’s just one game), or Josh Freeman is available.

Assuming none of the low-end starters are available (actually, I think Garrard is much more valuable than that, but mine seems to be a minority opinion), I’d rank the backup options Hill > Vick > Wallace > Clausen.  Plan accordingly.

Running Back

Ryan Grant’s season-ending ankle/leg injury, while not on par with Tom Brady’s Week 1 injury in 2008, is the most difficult of the Week 1 injuries to deal with.  If you don’t have the top waiver wire priority in your league, you won’t get Grant’s replacement, Brandon Jackson.  If Cleveland’s Peyton Hillis is available, he’s a great consolation prize with the potential to be much more than that.  For whatever reason Browns Head Coach Eric Mangini and his staff don’t appear sold on the idea of Jerome Harrison being an every-down back, in spite of his having rushed for 286 yards last season in a December contest against the Chiefs (who, coincidentally, are Cleveland’s opponent for Week 2).  If they did view Harrison as an every-down back, they wouldn’t have drafted Montario Hardesty with their second-round pick, and they wouldn’t have given Hillis an equal workload in Sunday’s loss at Tampa.  By the way, how good was that Arkansas backfield in 2007 that featured Hillis, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones?  Unbelievable - we may never see the likes of that again.

If neither Jackson nor Hillis are available to you, consider going with Rashad Jennings, Javon Ringer, or Bernard Scott instead.  All back up running backs who saw a heavy workload last season, and all figure to get more touches this season.  To be sure, they’re all speculative pickups, but ones with the potential to be fantasy stars should something happen to the guys ahead of them.  Finally, today’s trade that sent Laurence Maroney from New England to Denver obviously hurts Maroney’s fantasy value, but it doesn’t have much impact on either his new Denver teammates (Moreno and Buckhalter, though not 100%, will still be ahead of Maroney on the depth chart, at least for the time being) or his former New England teammates (Fred Taylor’s value gets a slight boost, but he’s still an aging, injury-prone running back on a pass-happy team).

Wide Receivers

Not much news on the injury front, unless you were holding out hope that Anthony Gonzalez would return to his 2008 form.  Still, if you have the roster room, consider speculative claims on Brandon Tate, Danny Amendola, and Laurent Robinson in addition to the more obvious targets such as Mark Clayton and Nate Washington.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss’ concussion may require action on the part of some fantasy owners in deeper leagues.  See if Jermaine Gresham, Bo Scaife, or Marcedes Lewis are available in your league.

Final Thought

You’ll see many fantasy pundits blowing the dust off their “Don’t overreact to Week 1 results” editorials this week, and for the most part they’re right, especially when it comes to players like Brett Farve, Shonn Greene, and Randy Moss.  However, in fantasy football a “shoot first, ask questions later” approach is often the best.  You should always have a roster spot or two that you would feel comfortable turning over if you are so moved.  Holding onto a second Defense or Tight End isn’t likely to help you win your league’s championship - speculating on quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers just may.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Hi everyone!

I’ll be co-hosting the weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 9:30-10:30pm Eastern time (that will be our regular time going forward!).  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/9BtP4f.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook

Hi everyone!

I’ll be co-hosting our new weekly fantasy football show tonight on Blog Talk Radio from 6-7pm Eastern time.  Here’s the link you can use to listen:  http://bit.ly/dlcO9W.  The name of the show is “4th and Inches with Jana & The Sherpa”.

My co-host Jana and I are encouraging audience participation.  You can contact us during the show by phone (347-677-1608), by e-mail (4thNinchesShow@gmail.com), or via Twitter (@4thNinchesShow). 

If you miss the live broadcast, you can use the link above to listen to a recording of the program.  Download the show so that you can listen while you commute, wait for an appointment, exercise, or relax! 

Please help us get the word out about our show by passing the word along to any football fans you know - if they don’t play fantasy football themselves, chances are good they know others who do!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

Scott (The Sherpa)

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Fantasy Football Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Football Sherpa fan page on Facebook