The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVII.  Some will root for Colin Kaepernick, Patrick Willis, Jim Harbaugh, and the San Francisco 49ers.  Some will root for Ray Lewis, Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh, and the Baltimore Ravens.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Beyonce’s halftime show.

 

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at The Superdome in New Orleans.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

 

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Ravens’ score and the vertical axis to represent the 49ers’ score.  Then, if the 49ers are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

 

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-six Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 184 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

 

Home/Vis	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	13	2	3	11	4	3	4	10	0	5
1	2	0	0	1	3	2	1	3	0	1
2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1
3	6	0	0	6	4	0	5	8	0	0
4	7	1	1	2	1	0	2	7	0	1
5	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	0
7	10	3	2	5	3	1	4	7	0	3
8	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1
9	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0

 

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

 

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

 

Home/Vis	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	7.1%	1.1%	0.8%	4.6%	3.0%	1.1%	1.6%	5.4%	0.8%	1.9%
1	1.1%			0.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.3%	1.6%	0.3%	0.3%
2	0.8%				0.3%			0.8%	0.3%	0.3%
3	4.6%	0.3%		3.3%	1.6%		1.9%	3.5%
4	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%	1.6%	0.5%		0.5%	2.7%		0.5%
5	1.1%	1.1%						0.3%		0.3%
6	1.6%	0.3%		1.9%	0.5%		1.1%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%
7	5.4%	1.6%	0.8%	3.5%	2.7%	0.3%	1.6%	3.8%		0.8%
8	0.8%	0.3%	0.3%				0.8%			0.3%
9	1.9%	0.3%	0.3%		0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%	0.3%

  

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 46 Super Bowls.

 

 

Several observations:

 

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (52.6%).

 

• Almost half of the squares (45) have never been winners.  But take heart - when the score at the end of last year’s Super Bowl was New England 17, New York 15 at the end of the third quarter, that marked the first time that the (7,5) combination had come up in Super Bowl history!

 

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

 

 

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be a guest on Robert Manni’s Guys’ Guy’s Radio show tonight from 7-7:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio. We’ll be talking about the upcoming Super Bowl and social media.

Please tune in and call in (347-945-5834)!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be a guest on Robert Manni’s Guys’ Guy’s Radio show next Wed. (Jan 16th) from 7-7:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio. We’ll be talking about fantasy sports and Super Bowl predictions, among other things.

Please tune in and call in!

The Sherpa

4 teams with Week 6 byes:  Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.

 

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Thursday night) – Sherpa Says:  Pittsburgh 27, Tennessee 13.

• Pittsburgh
  • Start: QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall (Probable-knee), WRs Antonio Brown & Mike Wallace, TE Heath Miller, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Isaac Redman, WR Emmanuel Sanders, K Shaun Suisham
  • Sit: RB Jonathan Dwyer
• Tennessee
  • Start: TE Jared Cook
  • Neutral: RB Chris Johnson, WRs Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, & Kenny Britt (Probable-ankle), TE Craig Stevens, DEF
  • Sit: QBs Matt Hasselbeck & Jake Locker (Out-shoulder), RBs Javon Ringer (Out-knee) & Jamie Harper, K Rob Bironas

 

Dallas at Baltimore (Sunday early) – Sherpa says:  Dallas 24, Baltimore 21.

• Dallas
  • Start: QB Tony Romo, WRs Dez Bryant & Miles Austin (Probable-hamstring), TE Jason Witten
  • Neutral: RB DeMarco Murray, WR Kevin Ogletree, K Dan Bailey
  • Sit: RB Felix Jones
• Baltimore
  • Start: RB Ray Rice, TE Dennis Pitta
  • Neutral: QB Joe Flacco, WRs Torrey Smith & Anquan Boldin, DEF
  • Sit: RB Bernard Pierce, WR Jacoby Jones, TE Ed Dickson, K Justin Tucker

 

Cincinnati at Cleveland – Sherpa says:  Cincinnati 34, Cleveland 24.

• Cincinnati
  • Start: QB Andy Dalton, WRs A.J. Green (Probable-knee) & Andrew Hawkins, TE Jermaine Gresham, K Mike Nugent
  • Neutral: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WR Armon Binns, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Bernard Scott (IR-knee) & Brian Leonard, WR Mohamed Sanu
• Cleveland
  • Start: RB Trent Richardson, WRs Josh Gordon, Jordan Norwood & Greg Little
  • Neutral: QB Brandon Weeden, TE Ben Watson, K Phil Dawson
  • Sit: Chris Ogbonnaya, WRs Mohamed Massaquoi (Out-hamstring), Travis Benjamin (Doubtful-hamstring), & Josh Cribbs; TE Jordan Cameron, DEF

 

St. Louis at Miami – Sherpa says  Miami 27, St. Louis 13.

• St. Louis
  • Start: WR Brandon Gibson, TE Lance Kendricks
  • Neutral: QB Sam Bradford (Probable-knee), RB Steven Jackson, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Daryl Richardson & Isaiah Pead, WRs Danny Amendola (Out-shoulder), Chris Givens, & Brian Quick; K Greg Zuerlein
• Miami
  • Start: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Reggie Bush (Probable-knee), WRs Brian Hartline (Probable-quad) & Davone Bess, TE Anthony Fasano, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Lamar Miller, K Dan Carpenter
  • Sit: RB Daniel Thomas (Out-concussion), WRs Jabar Gaffney & Anthony Armstrong

 

Indianapolis at New York Jets - Sherpa says:  Indianapolis 31, New York 17.

• Indianapolis
  • Start: QB Andrew Luck, RB Vick Ballard, WR Reggie Wayne, K Adam Vinatieri, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Delone Carter, WRs T.Y. Hilton & Donnie Avery, TEs Coby Fleener & Dwayne Allen
  • Sit: RB Donald Brown (Out-knee)
• New York
  • Start: RB Shonn Greene, WR Jeremy Kerley (Probable-finger)
  • Neutral: RB Bilal Powell, TEs Dustin Keller (Probable-hamstring) & Jeff Cumberland (Probable-ribs)
  • Sit: QBs Mark Sanchez & Tim Tebow, RB Joe McKnight, WRs Stephen Hill (Probable-hamstring) & Chaz Schilens, K Nick Folk, DEF

 

Oakland at Atlanta – Sherpa says Atlanta 31, Oakland 17.

• Oakland
  • Start: RB Darren McFadden (Probable-shoulder), WRs Darrius Heyward-Bey (Probable-concussion) & Denarius Moore
  • Neutral: QB Carson Palmer, RBs Mike Tolbert & Marcel Reece, TE Brandon Meyers (Probable-shoulder)
  • Sit: RB Taiwan Jones (Probable-shoulder), WRs Derek Hagan, Rod Streater, & Juron Criner; K Sebastien Janikowski (Probable-groin), DEF
• Atlanta
  • Start: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WRs Julio Jones & Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant, DEF
  • Neutral: WR Harry Douglas
  • Sit:  RBs Jacquizz Rodgers & Jason Snelling

 

Detroit at Philadelphia – Sherpa says:  Philadelphia 28, Detroit 24.

• Detroit
  • Start: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew (Probable-knee)
  • Neutral: RB Mikel LeShoure, WR Nate Burleson, K Jason Hanson, DEF
  • Sit: RB Kevin Smith, WR Titus Young (Probable-knee), TE Tony Scheffler
• Philadelphia
  • Start: QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek
  • Neutral: WRs Jeremy Maclin & Jason Avant (Probable-wrist), K Alex Henery, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Bryce Brown (Probable-shoulder) & Deion Lewis, WRs Damaris Johnson & Riley Cooper (Probable-collarbone)

 

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – Sherpa says:  Kansas City 28, Tampa Bay 17.

• Kansas City
  • Start: QB Brady Quinn, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Jon Baldwin (Questionable-hamstring), Steve Breaston, & Dexter McCluster; TE Tony Moeaki, K Ryan Succop
  • Sit: QB Matt Cassel (Out-concussion), RBs Peyton Hillis (Out-ankle), Shaun Draughn (Probable-ankle), & Cyrus Gray
• Tampa Bay
  • Start: RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent Jackson
  • Neutral: RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Mike Williams, DEF
  • Sit: QB Josh Freeman, TE Dallas Clark, K Connor Barth

 

Buffalo at Arizona (Sunday late) – Sherpa says:  Buffalo 27, Arizona 14.

• Buffalo
  • Start: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RBs Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller, WR Steve Johnson, TE Scott Chandler, DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Donald Jones & T.J. Graham, K Rian Lindell
  • Sit: RB Tashard Choice
• Arizona
  • Start: WR Larry Fitzgerald
  • Neutral: QB Kevin Kolb, RB William Powell, WR Andre Roberts, TE Rob Housler, DEF
  • Sit: QB John Skelton (Probable-ankle), RBs Ryan Williams (IR-shoulder) & LaRod Stephens-Howling (Probable-hip), WRs Early Doucet & Michael Floyd, TEs Jeff King & Todd Heap (Questionable-knee), K Jay Feely

New England at Seattle – Sherpa says:  New England 28, Seattle 24.

• New England
  • Start: QB Tom Brady, WR Brandon Lloyd
  • Neutral:  RB Stevan Ridley, WR Wes Welker (Questionable-ankle), TEs Rob Gronkowski (Questionable-hip) & Aaron Hernandez (Questionable-ankle), K Stephen Gostkowski, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Brandon Bowen (Questionable-knee), Shane Vereen (Questionable-foot) & Danny Woodhead, WR Julian Edelman (Questionable-hand)
• Seattle
  • Start: RB Marshawn Lynch (Probable-back)
  • Neutral: RB Robert Turbin, WR Sidney Rice, TE Zach Miller, K Steven Hauschka, DEF
  • Sit: QB Russell Wilson, WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, & Ben Obomanu

 

New York Giants at San Francisco – Sherpa says:  San Francisco 31, New York 28.

• New York
  • Start: QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz, TE Martellus Bennett (Probable-knee)
  • Neutral: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WRs Domenick Hixon & Rueben Randle, K Lawrence Tynes
  • Sit: RBs David Wilson & Andre Brown (Out-concussion), WRs Hakeem Nicks (Questionable-foot) & Ramses Barden (Probable-concussion), DEF
• San Francisco
  • Start: QB Alex Smith (Probable-finger), RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, K David Akers
  • Neutral: WR Mario Manningham, DEF
  • Sit: QB Collin Kaepernick, RBs Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs (Questionable-knee) & LeMichael James; WRs Kyle Williams & Randy Moss

 

Minnesota at Washington – Sherpa says:  Washington 28, Minnesota 27.

• Minnesota
  • Start: QB Christian Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson (Probable-ankle), WR Percy Harvin (Probable-hamstring), TE Kyle Rudolph
  • Neutral: RB Toby Gerhart, K Blair Walsh, DEF
  • Sit: WRs Jerome Simpson (Questionable-back), Michael Jenkins, & Devin Aromashodu
• Washington
  • Start: RB Alfred Morris, TE Fred Davis
  • Neutral: QB Robert Griffin III (Questionable-concussion) (if he starts), WRs Pierre Garcon (Questionable-foot), Santana Moss, & Leonard Hankerson; K Kai Forbath, DEF
  • Sit: QB Kirk Cousins (if he starts), RBs Evan Royster (Probable-knee) & Ryan Grant, WR Aldrick Robinson

 

Green Bay at Houson (Sunday night) – Sherpa says: New Orleans 30, San Diego 28.

• Green Bay
  • Start: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Jordy Nelson
  • Neutral: WRs James Jones & Randal Cobb, TEs Jermichael Finley (Questionable-shoulder) & D.J. Williams (Questionable-hamstring), DEF
  • Sit: RBs Cedric Benson (IR-foot), Alex Green, John Starks, Brandon Saine, & John Kuhn; WRs Greg Jennings (Out-groin) & Donald Driver, K Mason Crosby
• Houston
  • Start: RB Arian Foster (Probable-knee), WR Andre Johnson (Probable-groin), TE Owen Daniels, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Matt Schaub, RB James Casey, WR Kevin Walter, K Shayne Graham (Probable-calf)
  • Sit: RBs Ben Tate (Probable-toe) & Justin Forsett (Probable-thigh), WRs Keshawn Martin, DeVier Posey, & Lestar Jean (Probable-knee)

 

Denver at San Diego (Monday night) – Sherpa says:  Denver 31, San Diego 24.

• Denver
  • Start: QB Peyton Manning, WRs Eric Decker & Demaryius Thomas (Probable-hip), TE Jacob Tamme, K Matt Prater
  • Neutral: RB Willis McGahee, WR Brandon Stokley, TE Joel Dreessen, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Lance Ball (Probable-ankle), Knowshon Moreno, & Ronnie Hillman
• San Diego
  • Start: RB Ryan Mathews (Probable-ankle), TE Antonio Gates
  • Neutral: QB Philip Rivers, RB Ronnie Brown, WRs Malcom Floyd (Questionable-groin) & Robert Meachem; K Nick Novak or K Nate Kaeding (Questionable-groin) (whoever starts)
  • Sit: RBs Jackie Battle & Curtis Brnikley, WR Eddie Royal (Questionable-hamstring), DEF

Good luck this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

4 teams with Week 5 byes:  Dallas, Detroit, Oakland and Tampa Bay.

 

Arizona at St. Louis (Thursday night) – Sherpa Says:  St. Louis 21, Arizona 20.

• Arizona
  • Start: WR Larry Fitzgerald, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Ryan Williams, WR Andre Roberts
  • Sit: QBs Kevin Kolb & John Skelton (Probable-ankle), WRs Early Doucet & Michael Floyd, TEs Jeff King, Rob Housler, & Todd Heap (Questionable-knee), K Jay Feely
• St. Louis
  • Start: WR Danny Amendola (Probable-ankle), TE Lance Kendricks, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson (Questionable-groin), WR Brandon Gibson (Probable-knee)
  • Sit: RBs Daryl Richardson & Isaiah Pead, K Greg Zuerlein

 

Green Bay at Indianapolis (Sunday early) – Sherpa says:  Green Bay 28, Indianapolis 20.

• Green Bay
  • Start: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jermichael Finley, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Cedric Benson, WRs Randall Cobb & James Jones, K Mason Crosby
  • Sit: RB James Starks, WRs Donald Driver & Greg Jennings (Out-groin)
• Indianapolis
  • Start: RB Donald Brown, WR Reggie Wayne
  • Neutral: QB Andrew Luck, WRs TY Hilton & Donnie Avery, TEs Coby Fleener (Questionable-concussion) & Dwayne Allen, DEF
  • Sit: RB Vick Ballard, K Adam Vinatieri

 

Baltimore at Kansas City – Sherpa says:  Baltimore 31, Kansas City 28.

• Baltimore
  • Start: QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WRs Torrey Smith (Probable-ankle) & Anquan Boldin, K Justin Tucker
  • Neutral: WR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta, DEF
  • Sit: RB Bernard Pierce, TE Ed Dickson
• Kansas City
  • Start: QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe
  • Neutral: WRs Jon Baldwin (Probable-hamstring) & Steve Breaston, TE Tony Moeaki, K Ryan Succop
  • Sit: RBs Peyton Hillis (Out-ankle), Shaun Droughn, & Cyrus Gray; WR Dexter McCluster, TE Kevin Boss (IR-concussion), DEF

 

Miami at Cincinnati – Sherpa says  Cincinnati 35, Miami 31.

• Miami
  • Start: RB Reggie Bush (Probable-hip), WR Brian Hartline, K Dan Carpenter
  • Neutral: QB Ryan Tannehill (Probable-thumb), WR Davone Bess, TE Anthony Fasano
  • Sit: RBs Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, & Javorski Lane; DEF
• Cincinnati
  • Start: QB Andy Dalton, WRs A.J. Green & Andrew Hawkins; TE Jermain Gresham, K Mike Nugent
  • Neutral: WR Armon Binns
  • Sit: RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Bernard Scott (Probable-ankle), WRs Brandon Tate & Mohamed Sanu, TE Orson Charles, DEF

 

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh - Sherpa says:  Philadelphia 27, Pittsburgh 17.

• Philadelphia
  • Start: RB LeSean McCoy, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Michael Vick, WRs Jeremy Maclin & Jason Avant (Probable-wrist); K Alex Henery
  • Sit: RBs Dion Lewis & Bryce Brown, WR Damaris Johnson (Probable-foot) & Riley Cooper (Probable-collarbone)
• Pittsburgh
  • Start: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WRs Mike Wallace & Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller
  • Neutral: WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Rashard Mendenhall (Probable-knee), Isaac Redman, & Jonathan Dwyer; K Shaun Suisham

 

Atlanta at Washington – Sherpa says Washington 34, Atlanta 31.

• Atlanta
  • Start: QB Matt Ryan, WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones (Probable-hand), TE Tony Gonzalez, K Matt Bryant
  • Neutral: RB Michael Turner, WR Harry Douglas
  • Sit: RBs Jacquizz Rodgers & Jason Snelling, DEF
• Washington
  • Start: QB Robert Griffin III, RB Alfred Morris, WRs Leonard Hankerson & Pierre Garcon (Probable-foot), TE Fred Davis, K Billy Cundiff
  • Neutral: WRs Santana Moss & Joshua Morgan
  • Sit:  RBs Evan Royster (Questionable-knee) & Ryan Grant, WR Aldrick Robinson (Probable-concussion), DEF

 

Cleveland at New York Giants – Sherpa says:  New York 31, Cleveland 17.

• Cleveland
  • Start: RB Trent Richardson, WR Greg Little
  • Neutral: QB Brandon Weeden, WR Jordan Norwood, TE Ben Watson
  • Sit: RB Chris Ogbanaya, WRs Josh Cribbs (Probable-concussion), Josh Gordon, Mohamed Massaquoi (Doubtful-hamstring) & Travis Benjamin (Doubtful-hamstring), TE Jordan Cameron, K Phil Dawson
• New York
  • Start: QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Victor Cruz, TE Martellus Bennett, K Lawrence Tynes, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Andre Brown, WRs Domenick Hixon & Rueben Randle
  • Sit: WRs Hakeem Nicks (Out-foot) & Ramses Barden (Out-concussion)

 

Seattle at Carolina (Sunday late) – Sherpa says:  Carolina 27, Seattle 24.

• Seattle
  • Start: RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Sidney Rice
  • Neutral: QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, WR Doug Baldwin, TE Zach Miller, K Steven Hauschka, DEF
  • Sit: WRs Golden Tate & Ben Obomanu
• Carolina
  • Start: QB Cam Newton, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen
  • Neutral: RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, WR Brandon LaFell, K Justin Medlock, DEF
  • Sit: RB Mike Tolbert

 

Chicago at Jacksonville – Sherpa says:  Chicago 27, Jacksonville 17.

• Chicago
  • Start: RB Matt Forte (Probable-ankle), WR Brandon Marshall, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Jay Cutler, RB Michael Bush, WR Alshon Jeffery, TE Kellen Davis, K Robbie Gould
  • Sit: WRs Earl Bennett (Questionable-hand) & Devin Hester
• Jacksonville
  • Start: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR Justin Blackmon, TE Marcedes Lewis
  • Neutral: WR Cecil Shorts, DEF
  • Sit: QB Blaine Gabbert, RB Rashad Jennings, WR Laurent Robinson (Out-concussion), K Josh Scobee

Denver at New England – Sherpa says:  New England 28, Denver 27.

• Denver
  • Start: QB Peyton Manning, WRs Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker, TE Jacob Tamme
  • Neutral:  RBs Willis McGahee & Ronnie Hillman, WR Brandon Stokley, TE Joel Dreessen, K Matt Prater, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Lance Ball & Knowshon Moreno
• New England
  • Start: QB Tom Brady, RB Stevan Ridley, WRs Wes Welker & Brandon Lloyd
  • Neutral: TE Rob Gronkowski (Questionable-hip), K Stephen Gostkowski, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Brandon Bowen (Questionable-knee), Shane Vereen (Questionable-foot), & Danny Woodhead, WR Julian Edelman (Out-hand), TE Aaron Hernandez (Questionable-ankle)

 

Buffalo at San Francisco – Sherpa says:  San Francisco 28, Buffalo 21.

• Buffalo
  • Start: RB Fred Jackson, WR Steve Johnson, TE Scott Chandler (Probable-concussion)
  • Neutral: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB C.J. Spiller, WR Donald Jones (Probable-concussion) & T.J. Graham, DEF
  • Sit: RB Tashard Choice, K Rian Lindell
• San Francisco
  • Start: RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, DEF
  • Neutral: WR Mario Manningham, K David Akers
  • Sit: QB Alex Smith, RBs Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs (Questionable-knee) & LeMichael James; WR Randy Moss

 

Tennessee at Minnesota – Sherpa says:  Minnesota 27, Tennessee 13.

• Tennessee
  • Start: WR Nate Washington
  • Neutral: QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Chris Johnson, WR Kendall Wright, TEs Craig Stevens & Jared Cook (Probable-shoulder), DEF
  • Sit: QB Jake Locker (Out-shoulder), RB Javon Ringer, WRs Kenny Britt (Questionable-ankle) & Damian Williams, K Rob Bironas
• Minnesota
  • Start: QB Christain Ponder (Probable-knee), RB Adrian Peterson, WRs Percy Harvin & Jerome Simpson, TE Kyle Rudolph, DEF
  • Neutral: K Blair Walsh
  • Sit: RB Toby Gerhart, WRs Michael Jenkins (Questionable-ribs) & Devin Aromashodu, TE John Carlson

 

San Diego at New Orleans (Sunday night) – Sherpa says: New Orleans 30, San Diego 28.

• San Diego
  • Start: QB Philip Rivers, WRs Malcom Floyd, TE Antonio Gates
  • Neutral: RBs Ryan Mathews & Jackie Battle, WRs Robert Meachem & Eddie Royal, K Nick Novak
  • Sit: RBs Curtis Brinkley & Ronnie Brown, K Nate Kaeding (Out-groin), DEF
• New Orleans
  • Start: QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, K Garrett Hartley
  • Neutral: RBs Mark Ingram & Pierre Thomas, WR Devery Henderson, DEF
  • Sit: RB Chris Ivory, WR Lance Moore (Out-hamstring)

 

Houston at New York Jets (Monday night) – Sherpa says:  Houston 27, New York Jets 10.

• Houston
  • Start: RB Arian Foster (Probable-hamstring), DEF
  • Neutral: QB Matt Schaub, WRs Andre Johnson (Questionable-groin) & Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, K Shayne Graham
  • Sit: RB Ben Tate (Questionable-toe), WRs Keshawn Martin, DeVier Posey, & Lestar Jean (Out-knee)
• New York Jets
  • Start: N/A
  • Neutral: TE Jeff Cumberland (Probable-ribs), DEF
  • Sit: QBs Mark Sanchez (Probable-back) & Tim Tebow, RBs Shonn Greene, Bilal Powell, & Joe McKnight; WRs Jeremy Kerley (Probable-finger), Stephen Hill (Questionable-hamstring), & Chaz Schilens, TE Dustin Keller (Questionable-hamstring), K Nick Folk

Good luck this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

2 teams with Week 4 byes:  Pittsburgh and Indianapolis

 

Cleveland at Baltimore (Thursday night) – Sherpa Says:  Baltimore 38, Cleveland 20.

• Cleveland
  • Start: RB Trent Richardson (Probable-knee)
  • Neutral: QB Brandon Weeden, WRs Greg Little, Josh Gordon, & Travis Benjamin; TEs Jordan Cameron & Ben Watson
  • Sit: WRs Mohamed Massaquoi (Out-hamstring) & Josh Cribbs (Questionable-knee), K Phil Dawson, DEF
• Baltimore
  • Start: QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, & Jacoby Jones; TE Dennis Pitta, K Justin Tucker, DEF
  • Neutral: N/A
  • Sit: RB Bernard Pierce, TE Ed Dickson

 

Minnesota at Detroit (Sunday early) – Sherpa says:  Detroit 34, Minnesota 27.

• Minnesota
  • Start: QB Christian Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson, WRs Percy Harvin & Jerome Simpson
  • Neutral: WR Michael Jenkins, TE Kyle Rudolph (Questionable-thigh), K Blair Walsh
  • Sit: RB Toby Gerhart, WRs Jarius Wright & Devin Aromashodu, TE John Carlson, DEF
• Detroit
  • Start: QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable-hip) or QB Shaun Hill (whoever starts); RB Mikel Leshoure (Probable-groin), WRs Calvin Johnson & Nate Burleson, TE Brandon Pettigrew, K Jason Hanson
  • Neutral: WR Titus Young (Questionable-knee), DEF
  • Sit: RBs Kevin Smith & Joique Bell, TE Tony Scheffler (Questionable-calf)

 

Seattle at St. Louis – Sherpa says:  Seattle 24, St. Louis 17.

• Seattle
  • Start: RB Marshawn Lynch, DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Sidney Rice & Golden Tate, TE Zach Miller, K S Hauschka
  • Sit: QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, WRs Doug Baldwin (Questionable-shoulder), Braylon Edwards, & Ben Obomanu; TE Anthony McCoy
• St. Louis
  • Start: WR Danny Amendola, TE Lance Kendricks
  • Neutral: WR Brandon Gibson, DEF
  • Sit: QB Sam Bradford, RBs Steven Jackson (Questionable-groin), Darryl Richardson, & Isaiah Pead; WR Steve Smith, K Greg Zuerlein

 

San Francisco at New York Jets – Sherpa says:  San Francisco 28, New York 17.

• San Francisco
  • Start: RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Alex Smith, RB Kendall Hunter, WRs Mario Manningham & Randy Moss, K David Akers
  • Sit: RB Brandon Jacobs (Questionable-knee)
• New York
  • Start: WR Santonio Holmes
  • Neutral: WRs Stephen Hill (Questionable-hamstring) & Jeremy Kerley, TEs Dustin Keller (Questionable-hamstring) & Jeff Cumberland, DEF
  • Sit: QB Mark Sanchez, RBs Shonn Greene, Bilal Powell, & Joe McKnight; K Nick Folk

 

San Diego at Kansas City – Sherpa says  Kansas City 31, San Diego 30.

• San Diego
  • Start: QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, WRs Malcom Floyd & Robert Meachem, TE Antonio Gates, K Nate Kaeding
  • Neutral: N/A
  • Sit: RBs Curtis Brinkley, Jackie Battle, & Ronnie Brown; WR Eddie Royal, TE Dante Rosario, DEF
• Kansas City
  • Start: QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, K Ryan Succop
  • Neutral: WRs Steve Breaston & Jon Baldwin, TE Tony Moeaki
  • Sit: RBs Peyton Hillis (Questionable-ankle) & Shaun Draughn, WR Dexter McCluster (Questionable-shoulder), TE Kevin Boss (Questionable-concussion), DEF

 

Tennessee at Houston - Sherpa says:  Houston 31, Tennessee 13.

• Tennessee
  • Start: WR Nate Washington
  • Neutral: WRs Kenny Britt (Questionable-ankle) & Kendall Wright, TEs Jared Cook (Questionable-shoulder) & Craig Stevens
  • Sit: QB Jake Locker, RBs Chris Johnson & Javon Ringer (Questionable-ankle), K Rob Bironas, DEF
• Houston
  • Start: QB Matt Schaub (Probable-shoulder), RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, TE Owen Daniels, K Shayne Graham, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Ben Tate, WR Kevin Walter
  • Sit: WRs Keshawn Martin & Lestar Jean (Out-knee), TE Garrett Graham

 

Carolina at Atlanta – Sherpa says Atlanta 28, Carolina 27.

• Carolina
  • Start: QB Cam Newton, RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen
  • Neutral: WR Brandon LaFell, K Justin Medlock, DEF
  • Sit: RB Jonathan Stewart (Questionable-ankle)
• Atlanta
  • Start: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WRs Julio Jones & Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez
  • Neutral: RB Jacquizz Rodgers, K Matt Bryant, DEF
  • Sit: WR Harry Douglas

 

New England at Buffalo – Sherpa says:  New England 34, Buffalo 31.

• New England
  • Start: QB Tom Brady, RB Stevan Ridley, WR Brandon Lloyd & Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, K Stephen Gostkowski
  • Neutral: N/A
  • Sit: RBs Shane Vereen (Questionable-foot) & Danny Woodhead, WRs Julian Edelman (Questionable-hand) & Deion Branch, TEs Aaron Hernandez (Out-ankle) & Kellen Winslow, DEF
• Buffalo
  • Start: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Steve Johnson, TE Scott Chandler, K Rian Lindell
  • Neutral: RBs Tashard Choice & Fred Jackson (Questionable-knee), WR Donald Jones
  • Sit: RB C.J. Spiller (Questionable-shoulder), WR T.J. Graham, DEF

 

Cincinnati at Jacksonville (Sunday late) – Sherpa says:  Cincinnati 37, Jacksonville 31.

• Cincinnati
  • Start: QB Andy Dalton, RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, WRs A.J. Green & Andrew Hawkins, TE Jermaine Gresham, K Mike Nugent
  • Neutral: WR Armon Binns
  • Sit: RB Bernard Scott, DEF
• Jacksonville
  • Start: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, WR Justin Blackmon, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee
  • Neutral: QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Laurent Robinson (Questionable-concussion)
  • Sit: RB Rashard Jennings (Questionable-knee), WR Cecil Shorts, DEF

 

Miami at Arizona – Sherpa says:  Miami 24, Arizona 21.

• Miami
  • Start: QB Ryan Tannehill, WRs Brian Hartline & Davone Bess, TE Anthony Fasano, DEF
  • Neutral: RBs Daniel Thomas & Lamar Miller, K Dan Carpenter
  • Sit: RB Reggie Bush WR Anthony Armstrong
• Arizona
  • Start: QB Kevin Kolb, WR Larry Fitzgerald
  • Neutral: RB Ryan Williams, WR Andre Roberts, TE Jeff King
  • Sit: QB John Skelton, RB Beanie Wells (IR-toe), WR Early Doucet, TEs Todd Heap (Questionable-knee) & Rob Housler, K Jay Feely

Oakland at Denver – Sherpa says:  Denver 27, Oakland 24.

• Oakland
  • Start: QB Carson Palmer, WR Denarius Moore & Rod Streater
  • Neutral:  RB Darren McFadden, WR Derek Hagan, TE David Ausberry, K Sebastian Janikowski, DEF
    
  • Sit: RBs Mike Goodson & Taiwan Jones, WRs Darrius Heyward-Bey (Questionable-concussion) & Juron Criner (Questionable-ankle), TE Brandon Myers (Questionable-concussion)
• Denver
  • Start: QB Peyton Manning, WRs Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker, TE Jacob Tamme
  • Neutral: RB Willis McGahee (Questionable-ribs), TE Joel Dreessen, K Matt Prater, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball, & Knowshon Moreno

 

Washington at Tampa Bay – Sherpa says:  Washington 27, Tampa Bay 21.

• Washington
  • Start: QB Robert Griffin III, TE Fred Davis
  • Neutral: RB Alfred Morris, WRs Leonard Hankerson (Probable-neck), Josh Morgan, Aldrick Robinson, & Santana Moss, K Billy Cundiff
  • Sit: RBs Evan Royster (Questionable-knee), Ryan Grant & Roy Helu (IR-toe); WR Pierre Garcon (Questionable-foot), DEF
• Tampa Bay
  • Start: QB Josh Freeman, WRs Vincent Jackson & Mike Williams
  • Neutral: RB Doug Martin, TE Dallas Clark, DEF
  • Sit: RB LeGarrette Blount, K Connor Barth

 

New Orleans at Green Bay – Sherpa says:  Green Bay 31, New Orleans 28.

• New Orleans
  • Start: QB Drew Brees, RBs Mark Ingram & Darren Sproles, WRs Marques Colston & Lance Moore, TE Jimmy Graham, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Pierre Thomas, WR Devery Henderson, K Garrett Hartley
  • Sit: RB Chris Ivory
• Green Bay
  • Start: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Cedric Benson, WRs Jordy Nelson, James Jones, & Randall Cobb; TE Jermichael Finley, K Mason Crosby
  • Neutral: RB James Starks (Probable-toe), WRs Greg Jennings (Questionable-groin) & Donald Driver, DEF
  • Sit: RB Alex Green

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia (Sunday night) – Sherpa says: Philadelphia 31, New York 27.

• New York
  • Start: QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz, TE Martellus Bennett
  • Neutral: RBs Ahmad Bradshaw & Andre Brown, WR Hakeem Nicks (Questionable-foot) & Ramses Barden, K Lawrence Tynes
  • Sit: RB David Wilson, WRs Domenick Hixon (Probable-concussion) & Rueben Randle, DEF
• Philadelphia
  • Start: QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WRs Jeremy Maclin (Probable-hip) & DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek, K Alex Henery
  • Neutral: WRs Jason Avant & Damaris Johnson, DEF
  • Sit: RBs Dion Lewis & Bryce Brown

 

Chicago at Dallas (Monday night) – Sherpa says:  Chicago 24, Dallas 21.

• Chicago
  • Start: RB Michael Bush, WR Brandon Marshall, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Jay Cutler, TE Kellen Davis, K Robbie Gould
  • Sit: RB Matt Forte, WRs Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, & Devin Hester
• Dallas
  • Start: WRs Miles Austin & Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten
  • Neutral: QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Kevin Ogletree, DEF
  • Sit: RB Felix Jones, K Dan Bailey

Good luck this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVI.  Some will root for Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (if he’s able to play), Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots.  Some will root for Eli Manning, Victor “Salsa” Cruz, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Giants.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Madonna’s halftime show.

 

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

 

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Giants’ score and the vertical axis to represent the Patriots’ score.  Then, if the Patriots are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

 

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-five Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 180 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

 

Home/Vis	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	13	2	3	11	4	3	4	10	0	3
1	2	0	0	1	3	2	1	3	0	1
2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1
3	6	0	0	6	4	0	5	8	0	0
4	7	1	1	2	1	0	2	7	0	1
5	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	0
7	10	2	2	5	3	0	4	7	0	3
8	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1
9	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0

 

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

 

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

 

Home/Vis	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	7.2%	1.1%	0.8%	4.7%	3.1%	1.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.8%	1.4%
1	1.1%			0.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.3%
2	0.8%				0.3%			0.8%	0.3%	0.3%
3	4.7%	0.3%		3.3%	1.7%		1.9%	3.6%
4	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%		0.6%	2.8%		0.6%
5	1.1%	1.1%								0.3%
6	1.7%	0.3%		1.9%	0.6%		1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%
7	5.6%	1.4%	0.8%	3.6%	2.8%		1.7%	3.9%		0.8%
8	0.8%	0.3%	0.3%				0.8%			0.3%
9	1.4%	0.3%	0.3%		0.6%	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%	0.3%

  

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 45 Super Bowls.

 

 

Several observations:

 

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (53.9%).

 

• Almost half of the squares (46) have never been winners.

 

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

 

 

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

 

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

San Francisco at St. Louis (Sunday early) – San Francisco can lock up the second seed in the NFC playoffs (and the first-round bye that comes with it) with a victory, so expect their starters to play most of the game.  St. Louis also has something to play for - a loss in this game will keep them in the running in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, depending on the outcome of the Indianapolis-Jacksonville game.  Very rarely do the interests of both teams line up so well.  San Francisco 24, St. Louis 13.

• San Francisco
  • Start: RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Kendall Hunter, WR Michael Crabtree, K David Akers
  • Sit: QB Alex Smith, WRs Ted Ginn Jr (Questionable-ankle) & Kyle Williams (Questionable-concussion)
• St. Louis
  • Start: N/A
  • Neutral: RB Steven Jackson, WR Brandon Lloyd, DEF
  • Sit: QBs Sam Bradford (Doubtful-ankle), A.J. Feeley (Doubtful-thumb), & Kellen Clemens; RB Cadillac Williams, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Lance Kendricks, K Josh Brown

 

Washington at Philadelphia – The Eagles’ season has been an unmitigated disaster relative to the expectations many had for the self-annointed “Dream Team”, but a win in this game will allow the Eagles to finish with a .500 record.  The Redskins’ Rex Grossman and Evan Royster have been pleasant surprises, but don’t look for Ryan Torain to get any carries Sunday - he was released earlier this week by the mercurial Mike Shanahan.  Philadelphia 28, Washington 17.

• Washington
  • Start: RB Evan Royster, WRs Jabar Gaffney & Santana Moss
  • Neutral: QB Rex Grossman, DEF
  • Sit: RB Roy Helu (Questionable-toe), WRs Terrence Austin, Anthony Armstrong, & Donte’ Stallworth (Probable-ankle), TE Logan Paulsen, K Graham Gano
• Philadelphia
  • Start: QB Michael Vick, WR DeSean Jackson, TE Brent Celek, DEF
  • Neutral: RB LeSean McCoy (Questionable-ankle), WRs Jason Avant & Jeremy Maclin, K Alex Henery
  • Sit:  RB Ronnie Brown, WR Riley Cooper

 

Detroit at Green Bay – Green Bay is unlikely to play its key starters more than a half, so it’s probably wise to bench Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, and Jordy Nelson.  Detroit will play for momentum going into the playoffs, so their starters should play most of the game.  Detroit 27, Green Bay 21.

• Detroit
  • Start: QB Matt Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson (Probable-achilles), TE Brandon Pettigrew, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Kevin Smith (Probable-ankle), WRs Titus Young & Nate Burleson, K Jason Hanson
  • Sit: RB Maurice Morris
• Green Bay
  • Start: N/A
  • Neutral: QB Matt Flynn, RBs John Kuhn & Brandon Saine, WRs James Jones & Donald Driver, TE Jermichael Finley, DEF
  • Sit: QB Aaron Rodgers, RBs James Starks (Out-knee) & Ryan Grant, WRs Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings (Out-knee), & Randall Cobb (Out-groin), K Mason Crosby

 

Tennessee at Houston – Tennessee still has playoff hopes, but the Texans want to regain momentum heading into the playoffs.  Don’t start Chris Johnson, but Jared Cook is finally displaying the top-tier talent many have talked about since he came into the league.  For Houston expect to see much more of Ben Tate than Arian Foster.  Houston 20, Tennessee 17.

• Tennessee
  • Start: WR Nate Washington, TE Jared Cook, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Damian Williams
  • Sit: RB Chris Johnson (Questionable-ankle), WR Lavelle Hawkins (Questionable-ankle), K Rob Bironas
• Houston
  • Start: RB Ben Tate, DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, & Bryant Johnson (Probable-thigh), TEs Owen Daniels (Probable-knee) & Joel Dreessen (Probable-knee)
  • Sit: QB T.J. Yates (Probable-shoulder), RB Arian Foster (Probable-knee), WR Andre Johnson (Probable-hamstring), K Neil Rackers

 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Indianapolis “controls its own destiny” in the Andrew Luck derby - a loss in this game will clinch that dubious distinction for them.  However, don’t expect the Colts’ players to roll over - many of them are playing for their jobs.  Jacksonville has only four wins of its own, but as long as Maurice Jones-Drew is still in one piece, he’s worth starting in any fantasy league.  Jacksonville 20, Indianapolis 17.

• Indianapolis
  • Start: RB Donald Brown, WR Reggie Wayne, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Dan Orlovsky, WRs Pierre Garcon & Austin Collie, TE Jacob Tamme
  • Sit: RBs Joseph Addai & Delone Cater, TE Dallas Clark (Questionable-neck), K Adam Vinatieri
• Jacksonville
  • Start: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Probable-ankle), DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Mike Thomas, Chastin West, & Jarett Dillard; TE Marcedes Lewis (Probable-hamstring)
  • Sit: QB Blaine Gabbert, K Josh Scobee

 

New York Jets at Miami - The Jets need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, then hope for a series of unlikely events in other games.  Miami’s playing out the string; Reggie Bush has been a pleasant surprise for them this season after a slow start, but he won’t be playing, leaving the bulk of the rushing chores to the disappointing rookie Daniel Thomas.  New York Jets 21, Miami 20.

• New York
  • Start: WR Santonio Holmes, TE Dustin Keller, DEF
  • Neutral: QB Mark Sanchez, RB Shonne Greene (Probable-ribs), WR Plaxico Burress
  • Sit:  RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (Probable-quad) & Joe McKnight (Probable-shoulder), WR Jeremy Kerley, K Nick Folk
• Miami
  • Start: RB Daniel Thomas (Probable-knee), DEF
  • Neutral: QB Matt Moore, WRs Brandon Marshall (Probable-knee) & Davone Bess, TE Anthony Fasano (Probable-concussion)
  • Sit: RB Reggie Bush (Out-knee), WR Brian Hartline, K Dan Carpenter

 

Chicago at Minnesota – After they were eliminated from the playoff race last weekend the Bears placed quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte on IR.  Kahlil Bell seems intent on showing the Bears that Forte, a free agent-t0-be, is expendable.  Bears’ quarterback Josh McCown has a great match-up this week, which could be good news for Dane Sanzenbacher as well.  Minnesota will be without Adrian Peterson, and most likely Christian Ponder, so it’s likely time for the Toby & Joe Show.  The Vikings can’t win for losing - their third victory last weekend took them out of the running for the top pick in the 2012 draft.  Chicago 24, Minnesota 17.

• Chicago
  • Start: QB Josh McCown, RB Kahlil Bell, DEF
  • Neutral: WRs Devin Hester (Probable-ankle), Roy Williams, Earl Bennett, & Dane Sanzenbacher, K Robbie Gould
  • Sit: RB Armando Allen, TE Kellen Davis, RB Marion Barber (Doubtful-calf)
• Minnesota
  • Start: RB Toby Gerhart, WR Percy Harvin, TE Visanthe Shiancoe
  • Neutral: QB Joe Webb, WR Devin Aromashodu, DEF
  • Sit: QB Christian Ponder (Probable-concussion), WR Rich Camarillo, TE Kyle Rudolph, K Ryan Longwell

 

Buffalo at New England – New England has something to play for, but don’t be surprised if their starters don’t play the full game, especially with several of their key offensive players already hurt.  Ryan Fitzpatrick should have a field day against the Patriots’ pass defense.  New England 28, Buffalo 27.

• Buffalo
  • Start: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB C.J. Spiller, WR Steve Johnson
  • Neutral: WR David Nelson, DEF, K Brandon Coutu
  • Sit: RBs Tashard Choice & Johnny White (Probable-concussion), WRs Naaman Roosevelt & Brad Smith (Out-hamstring), TE Scott Chandler, K David Rayner (Out-groin)
• New England
  • Start: N/A
  • Neutral: QB Tom Brady (Probable-shoulder), RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis & Shane Ridley, WR Chad Ochocinco, TEs Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez, DEF, K Stephen Gostkowski
  • Sit: RB Shane Vereen (Questionable-hamstring), WRs Wes Welker (Questionable-knee), Deion Branch (Questionable-groin), & Julian Edelman (Questionable-back)

 

Carolina at New Orleans – New Orleans will be the NFC’s third seed if San Francisco wins (likely), but since both the Saints and 49ers play early games, expect Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints’ stars to play until the outcome of the San Francisco game is no longer in doubt.  Cam Newton will put an exclamation point on a very impressive rookie season.  New Orleans 31, Carolina 24.

• Carolina
  • Start: QB Cam Newton, WRs Steve Smith & Brandon LaFell
  • Neutral: RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, TEs Jeremy Shockey & Greg Olsen, K Olindo Mare
  • Sit: DEF, WR Legedu Naanee (Out-foot)
• New Orleans
  • Start: QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, K John Kasay
  • Neutral: RBs Pierre Thomas & Chris Ivory, WRs Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson, DEF
  • Sit: Mark Ingram (Out-toe), WR Lance Moore (Out-hamstring)

 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday late) – Tampa Bay will try to conclude what’s been a disappointing season on a high note.  Atlanta has stumbled late in the season in spite of Matt Ryan’s improvement.  There’s some fantasy value on both teams, but the outcome of the game won’t be in doubt.  Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 21.

• Tampa Bay
  • Start: WR Mike Williams, TE Kellen Winslow
  • Neutral: QB Josh Freeman, RB LeGarrette Blount, DEF
  • Sit: RB Kregg Lumpkin, WRs Dez Briscoe, Sammie Stroughter (Probable-knee), Preston Parker (Probable-concussion), & Arrelious Benn (Questionable-neck), K Connor Barth
• Atlanta
  • Start: QB Matt ryan, RB Michael Turner, WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones (Probable-ankle), TE Tony Gonzalez, DEF
  • Neutral: RBs Jacquizz Rodgers & Jason Snelling, K Matt Bryant
  • Sit: WR Harry Douglas (Probable-groin)

Baltimore at Cincinnati – Both teams have something to play for, so this should be one of the day’s top games. With a win Baltimore would clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye; the combination of a Ravens’ victory and a Patriots’ loss (unlikely) would give the Ravens homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  Cincinnati can clinch a wild card berth with a victory; even if they don’t, their future looks a lot brighter than it did a year ago.  Baltimore 21, Cincinnati 17.

• Baltimore
  • Start: RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith, DEF
  • Neutral:  QB Joe Flacco, TEs Ed Dickson & Dennis Pitta
    
  • Sit: RB Ricky Williams, WR Anquan Boldin (Doubtful-knee) & Lee Evans, K Shayne Graham or K Billy Cundiff (Questionable-calf) (whoever starts)
• Cincinnati
  • Start: DEF
  • Neutral: WRs A.J. Green (Probable-shoulder) & Jerome Simpson, TE Jermaine Gresham
  • Sit: QB Andy Dalton, RBs Cedric Benson & Bernard Scott, K Mike Nugent

 

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – The Steelers’ quarterback situation is a mess, but they’re still a much better team and should win this game easily.  The Browns’ quarterback situation is only slightly less unsettled, although it’s pretty clear Seneca Wallace will play this weekend, and Colt McCoy won’t.  Peyton Hillis is probably playing his last game for the Browns.  Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 14.

• Pittsburgh
  • Start: RB Rashard Mendenhall, TE Heath Miller, DEF
  • Neutral: Isaac Redman, WRs Mike Wallace (Probable-ankle) & Antonio Brown, K Shaun Suisham
  • Sit: QBs Ben Roethlisberger (Probable-ankle) & QB Charlie Batch (whoever starts), WRs Hines Ward, Emmanuel Sanders (Probable-foot), & Jerricho Cotchery
• Cleveland
  • Start: N/A
  • Neutral: RB Peyton Hillis (Probable-elbow), WR Greg Little, TE Evan Moore, DEF
  • Sit: QBs Seneca Wallace & Colt McCoy (Out-concussion), RBs Montario Hardesty & Chris Ogbannaya, WRs Josh Cribbs (Probable-groin) & Mohamed Massaquoi (Probable-foot), K Phil Dawson

 

Seattle at Arizona – This is one of the least interesting games in terms of playoff implications (none) but could still be an entertaining game - the winner will finish with a .500 record.  Marshawn Lynch has proved this season that last year’s playoff explosion wasn’t a fluke, while John Skelton has played passably (pun intended) after Kevin Kolb’s season was derailed by injuries.  Arizona 24, Seattle 21.

• Seattle
  • Start: QB Tarvaris Jackson, RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Doug Baldwin & Golden Tate, TE Zach Miller (Probable-pectoral)
  • Neutral: DEF
  • Sit: WR Ben Obomanu (Probable-knee), K Steve Hauschka
• Arizona
  • Start: QB John Skelton, WR Larry Fitzgerald, DEF
  • Neutral: RB Beanie Wells (Questionable-knee), WRs Early Doucet & Andre Roberts, TE Todd Heap, K Jay Feely
  • Sit: QB Kevin Kolb (Questionable-concussion), RB LaRod Stephens-Howling (Questionable-hamstring), TEs Jeff King & Rob Housler

 

Kansas City at Denver – Is it Tebow Time after two straight losses?  Usually, in late-season games like this, where one of the two teams has something to play for, and the other team is playing the role of spoiler, the team with something on the line wins.  Floyd Mayweather supposedly made $1 Mil betting against Tebow and the Broncos in the Patriots’ game.  Kyle Orton’s return to face the team that cut him earlier this season and potentially keep them out of the playoffs is a nice storyline, but that’s not how this one’s likely to end.  Denver 24, Kansas City 20.

• Kansas City
  • Start: QB Kyle Orton, RB Dexter McCluster, WR Dwayne Bowe
  • Neutral: RB Thomas Jones, WR Steve Breaston, DEF
  • Sit: RB Jackie Battle (Out-foot), WR Jonathan Baldwin, TE Leonard Pope, K Ryan Succop
• Denver
  • Start: QB Tim Tebow, RB Willis McGahee, WR Demaryius Thomas, DEF
  • Neutral: WR Eric Decker, K Matt Prater
  • Sit: RB Lance Ball, WR Eddie Royal, TE Daniel Fells

 

San Diego at Oakland – Forget what I said in the previous blurb; the Chargers will win this game because they’re the better team.  Even so, this is probably Norv Turner’s last game as head coach in San Diego, where his teams have perennially have gotten off to slow starts and underachieved in spite of a late-season push).  Carson Palmer has helped the Raiders a lot, but there are just too many injuries to too many key players, especially running back Darren McFadden.  San Diego 28, Oakland 24.

• San Diego
  • Start: QB Philip Rivers, RB Mike Tolbert (Probable-hamstring), WRs Vincent Jackson (Probable-groin) & Malcom Floyd, TE Antonio Gates
  • Neutral: RB Ryan Mathews (Questionable-calf), DEF, K Nick Novak
  • Sit: WRs Patrick Crayton & Vincent Brown
• Oakland
  • Start: QB Carson Palmer, RB Michael Bush, WRs Darrius Heyward-Bey & Denarius Moore
  • Neutral: WRs Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy (Probable-groin), & T.J. Houshmandzadeh; TE Kevin Boss, DEF, K Sebastian Janikowski
  • Sit: RBs Darren McFadden (Out-foot) & Taiwan Jones (Questionable-hamstring), WR Jacoby Ford (Questionable-foot)

Dallas at New York Giants (Sunday night) – The playoffs begin a week early for these two teams - the winner will capture the NFC East title, and the loser will be done for the season.  Eli “Lil Brother” Manning and Tony “Big Hand” Romo can both cement their reputations as big-game quarterbacks - or chokers (depending on whom you listen to).  The key to the game will be the Giants’ pass rush’s ability to disrupt the Cowboys’ passing attack.  New York 27, Dallas 21.

• Dallas
  • Start: QB Tony Romo (Probable-hand), WRs Miles Austin & Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten
  • Neutral: RB Felix Jones (Questionable-hamstring), WR Laurent Robinson (Probable-shoulder), DEF
  • Sit: RB Sammy Morris, K Dan Bailey
• New York
  • Start: QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WRs Victor Cruz & Hakeem Nicks (Probable-hamstring), DEF
  • Neutral: RB Brandon Jacobs, K Lawrence Tynes
  • Sit: RB D.J. Ware, WR Mario Manningham (Probable-knee), TEs Jake Ballard (Out-knee), Bear Pascoe, & Travis Beckham

Good luck this weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

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“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio

Quarterbacks

1.      Drew Brees            vs Car

2.      Michael Vick          vs Was

3.      Philip Rivers           @ Oak

4.      Matthew Stafford   @ GB

5.      Eli Manning            vs Dal

6.      Matt Ryan              vs TB

7.      Ryan Fitzpatrick     @ NE

8.      Cam Newton          @ NO

9.      Carson Palmer        vs SD

10.  Tony Romo            @ NYG

11.  Tim Tebow              vs KC

12.  John Skelton           vs Sea

13.  Kyle Orton               @ Den

14.  Tarvaris Jackson     @ Ari

15.  Josh McCown           @ Min

16.  Tom Brady               vs Buf

17.  Rex Grossman        @Phi

18.  Josh Freeman         @ Atl

19.  Mark Sanchez        @ Mia

20.  Matt Hasselbeck    @ Hou

21.  Joe Webb                 vs Chi

22.  Joe Flacco               @ Cin

23.  Dan Orlovsky         @ Jac

24.  Matt Moore           vs NYJ

25.  Matt Flynn              vs Det

26.  Charlie Batch          @ Cle

27.  Ben Roethlisberger @ Cle

28.  Alex Smith               @ StL

29.  Aaron Rodgers        vs Det

30.  Blaine Gabbert       vs Ind

31.  T.J. Yates               vs Ten

32.  Andy Dalton           vs Bal

33.  Christian Ponder     vs Chi

34.  Seneca Wallace      vs Pit

35.  Kellen Clemens      vs SF

36.  Kevin Kolb              vs Sea

37.  Sam Bradford         vs SF

38.  A.J. Feeley              vs SF

 

Running Backs

1.      Rashard Mendenhall @ Cle

2.      Michael Turner       vs TB

3.      Ahmad Bradshaw   vs Dal

4.      Mike Tolbert          @ Oak

5.      C.J. Spiller             @ NE

6.      Darren Sproles       vs Car

7.      Frank Gore            @ StL

8.      Ray Rice                @ Cin

9.      Marshawn Lynch    @ Ari

10.  Maurice Jones-Drew vs Ind

11.  Kahlil Bell               @ Min

12.  Willis McGahee      vs KC

13.  Ben Tate                vs Ten

14.  Michael Bush          vs SD

15.  Daniel Thomas        vs NYJ

16.  Dexter McCluster   @ Den

17.  Evan Royster          @ Phi

18.  Donald Brown        @ Jac

19.  Toby Gerhart          vs Chi

20.  Pierre Thomas        vs Car

21.  Brandon Jacobs      vs Dal

22.  Kevin Smith            @ GB

23.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs Buf

24.  Isaac Redman         @ Cle

25.  Stevan Ridley         vs Buf

26.  Chris Ivory             vs Car

27.  Jacquizz Rodgers    vs TB

28.  Jason Snelling         vs TB

29.  Kendall Hunter       @ StL

30.  DeAngelo Williams @ NO

31.  Jonathan Stewart    @ NO

32.  John Kuhn              vs Det

33.  Brandon Saine        vs Det

34.  LeGarrette Blount   @ Atl

35.  Kregg Lumpkin      @ Atl

36.  Shonn Greene         @ Mia

37.  Thomas Jones         @ Den

38.  Steven Jackson       vs SF

39.  Peyton Hillis           vs Pit

40.  LeSean McCoy      vs Was

41.  Ryan Mathews       @ Oak

42.  Beanie Wells          vs Sea

43.  Felix Jones            @ NYG

44.  Ronnie Brown        vs Was

45.  Maurice Morris      @ GB

46.  Tashard Choice      @ NE

47.  D.J. Ware              vs Dal

48.  Armando Allen       @ Min

49.  Lance Ball              vs KC

50.  Ryan Grant           vs Det

51.  Ricky Williams        @ Cin

52.  Sammy Morris        @ NYG

53.  Joseph Addai         @ Jac

54.  Delone Carter         @ Jac

55.  Cedric Benson        vs Bal

56.  Bernard Scott         vs Bal

57.  Montario Hardesty vs Pit

58.  Chris Ogbannaya    vs Pit

59.  Johnny White          @ NE

60.  LaDainian Tomlinson @ Mia

61.  Joe McKnight         @ Mia

62.  Arian Foster           vs Ten

63.  Shane Vereen         vs Buf

64.  LaRod Stephens-Howling vs Sea

65.  Taiwan Jones          vs SD

66.  Roy Helu                @ Phi

67.  Chris Johnson         @ Hou

68.  Marion Barber         @ Min

Wide receivers

1.      Marques Colston    vs Car

2.      DeSean Jackson     vs Was

3.      Malcom Floyd        @ Oak

4.      Vincent Jackson     @ Oak

5.      Steve Johnson        @ NE

6.      Roddy White          vs TB

7.      Victor Cruz            vs Dal

8.      Calvin Johnson       @ GB

9.      Julio Jones              vs TB

10.  Hakeem Nicks       vs Dal

11.  Michael Crabtree    @ StL

12.  Steve Smith            @ NO

13.  Brandon LaFell       @ NO

14.  Larry Fitzgerald      vs Sea

15.  Demaryius Thomas vs KC

16.  Darrius Heyward-Bey vs SD

17.  Denarius Moore     vs SD

18.  Santonio Holmes    @ Mia

19.  Mike Williams        @ Atl

20.  Torrey Smith          @ Cin

21.  Doug Baldwin         @ Ari

22.  Golden Tate           @ Ari

23.  Miles Austin           @ NYG

24.  Dez Bryant @ NYG

25.  Dwayne Bowe        @ Den

26.  Jabar Gaffney         @ Phi

27.  Santana Moss         @ Phi

28.  Nate Washington    @ Hou

29.  Reggie Wayne        @ Jac

30.  Percy Harvin          vs Chi

31.  Robert Meachem    vs Car

32.  Devery Henderson vs Car

33.  Jason Avant            vs Was

34.  Jeremy Maclin        vs Was

35.  Chad Ochocinco    vs Buf

36.  David Nelson         @ NE

37.  Antonio Brown       @ Cle

38.  Titus Young            @ GB

39.  Nate Burleson        @ GB

40.  Mike Wallace         @ Cle

41.  Roy Williams          @ Min

42.  Earl Bennett            @ Min

43.  Dane Sanzenbacher @ Min

44.  Early Doucet          vs Sea

45.  Andre Roberts        vs Sea

46.  Eric Decker            vs KC

47.  Chaz Schilens         vs SD

48.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs SD

49.  Devin Hester          @ Min

50.  Louis Murphy         vs SD

51.  James Jones           vs Det

52.  Donald Driver         vs Det

53.  Plaxico Burress       @ Mia

54.  Laurent Robinson   @ NYG

55.  Kevin Walter          vs Ten

56.  Jacoby Jones          vs Ten

57.  Mike Thomas         vs Ind

58.  Chastin West          vs Ind

59.  Jarett Dillard           vs Ind

60.  Davone Bess          vs NYJ

61.  Steve Breaston       @ Den

62.  Bryant Johnson       vs Ten

63.  Brandon Marshall   vs NYJ

64.  Damiam Williams    @ Hou

65.  Pierre Garcon         @ Jac

66.  Austin Collie           @ Jac

67.  Devin Aromashodu vs Chi

68.  Jerome Simpson     vs Bal

69.  A.J. Green              vs Bal

70.  Greg Little              vs Pit

71.  Brandon Lloyd       vs SF

72.  Riley Cooper          vs Was

73.  Patrick Crayton      @ Oak

74.  Vincent Brown       @ Oak

75.  Naaman Roosevelt @ NE

76.  Hines Ward            @ Cle

77.  Jerricho Cotchery   @ Cle

78.  Harry Douglas        vs TB

79.  Emmanuel Sanders @ Cle

80.  Mario Manningham vs Dal

81.  Eddie Royal            vs KC

82.  Jordy Nelson          vs Det

83.  Jeremy Kerley        @ Mia

84.  Dez Briscoe            @ Atl

85.  Lee Evans              @ Cin

86.  Sammie Stroughter @ Atl

87.  Preston Parker       @ Atl

88.  Ben Obomanu        @ Ari

89.  Brian Hartline         vs NYJ

90.  Jonathan Baldwin    @ Den

91.  Andre Johnson       vs Ten

92.  Terrence Austin      @ Phi

93.  Anthony Armstrong @ Phi

94.  Rich Camarillo        vs Chi

95.  Donte’ Stallworth    @ Phi

96.  Josh Cribbs            vs Pit

97.  Mohamed Massaquoi vs Pit

98.  Brandon Gibson     vs SF

99.  Wes Welker           vs Buf

100.          Deion Branch   vs Buf

101.          Julian Edelman vs Buf

102.          Ted Ginn          @ StL

103.          Kyle Williams   @ StL

104.          Jacoby Ford     vs SD

105.          Arrelious Benn @ Atl

106.          Lavelle Hawkins @ Hou

107.          Anquan Boldin @ Cin

 

Tight Ends

1.      Jimmy Graham        vs Car

2.      Brent Celek            vs Was

3.      Antonio Gates        @ Oak

4.      Brandon Pettigrew @ GB

5.      Tony Gonzalez        vs TB

6.      Heath Miller           @ Cle

7.      Vernon Davis         @ StL

8.      Dustin Keller          @ Mia

9.      Kellen Winslow      @ Atl

10.  Zach Miller          @ Ari

11.  Jason Witten           @ NYG

12.  Jared Cook            @ Hou

13.  Visanthe Shiancoe vs Chi

14.  Rob Gronkowski    vs Buf

15.  Aaron Hernandez   vs Buf

16.  Jeremy Shockey     @ NO

17.  Greg Olsen            @ NO

18.  Todd Heap             vs Sea

19.  Kevin Boss             vs SD

20.  Jermichael Finley    vs Det

21.  Ed Dickson            @ Cin

22.  Dennis Pitta            @ Cin

23.  Owen Daniels         vs Ten

24.  Joel Dreessen         vs Ten

25.  Marcedes Lewis     vs Ind

26.  Anthony Fasano     vs NYJ

27.  Jacob Tamme         @ Jac

28.  Jermaine Gresham  vs Bal

29.  Evan Moore           vs Pit

30.  Scott Chandler       @ NE

31.  Bear Pascoe           vs Dal

32.  Travis Beckham      vs Dal

33.  Kellen Davis           @ Min

34.  Jeff King                 vs Sea

35.  Rob Housler           vs Sea

36.  Daniel Fells            vs KC

37.  Leonard Pope        @ Den

38.  Logan Paulsen        @ Phi

39.  Kyle Rudolph         vs Chi

40.  Lance Kendricks    vs SF

41.  Dallas Clark           @ Jac

 

Defenses

1.      San Francisco 49ers @ StL

2.      Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cle

3.      Philadelphia Eagles vs Phi

4.      Houston Texanas    vs Ten

5.      Jacksonville Jaguars vs Ind

6.      Chicago Bears        @ Min

7.      Baltimore Ravens    @ Cin

8.      Tennessee Titans    @ Hou

9.      Indianapolis Colts   @ Jac

10.  New York Jets       @ Mia

11.  Denver Broncos     vs KC

12.  Detroit Lions          @ GB

13.  Miami Dolphins      vs NYJ

14.  Atlanta Falcons       vs TB

15.  Cincinnati Bengals vs Bal

16.  Arizona Cardinals   vs Sea

17.  New York Giants   vs Dal

18.  St. Louis Rams       vs SF

19.  Minnesota Vikings vs Chi

20.  New Orleans Saints vs Car

21.  Seattle Seahawks   @ Ari

22.  Kansas City Chiefs  @ Den

23.  San Diego Chargers @ Oak

24.  Green Bay Packers vs Det

25.  New England Patriots vs Buf

26.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atl

27.  Cleveland Browns  vs Pit

28.  Dallas Cowboys     @ NYG

29.  Washington Redskins @ Phi

30.  Buffalo Bills            @ NE

31.  Oakland Raiders     vs SD

32. Carolina Panters     @ NO

 

Kickers

1.      John Kasay            vs Car

2.      Alex Henery           vs Was

3.      Stephen Gostkowski vs Buf

4.      Nick Novak           @ Oak

5.      Jason Hanson         @ GB

6.      Brandon Coutu       @ NE

7.      Matt Bryant            vs TB

8.      Shaun Suisham       @ Cle

9.      Lawrence Tynes     vs Dal

10.  David Akers           @ StL

11.  Robbie Gould         @ Min

12.  Olindo Mare           @ NO

13.  Jay Feely                vs Sea

14.  Matt Prater           vs KC

15.  Sebastian Janikowski vs SD

16.  Mason Crosby       vs Det

17.  Nick Folk               @ Mia

18.  Connor Barth         @ Atl

19.  Shayne Graham      @ Cin

20.  Mike Nugent          @ Cin

21.  Steve Hauschka      vs Bal

22.  Dan Bailey             @ Ari

23.  Neil Rackers          @ NYG

24.  Josh Scobee           vs Ten

25.  Dan Carpenter        vs Ind

26.  Ryan Succop          vs NYJ

27.  Graham Gano         @ Den

28.  Rob Bironas           @ Phi

29.  Adam Vinatieri       @ Hou

30.  Ryan Longwell        @ Jac

31.  Phil Dawson           vs Chi

32.  Josh Brown            vs Pit

33.  Billy Cundiff            vs SF

 

 

 

Good luck this weekend, and more importantly, best wishes for a happy, healthy, and safe 2012!The Sherpa

Fantasy Football Sherpa

The Sherpa’s Fantasy Football Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Fantasy Football Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook

“4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa“, Wed. nights 9:30-10:30pm Eastern on Blog Talk Radio