The Fantasy Football Sherpa

Sunday evening over 100 million Americans will gather in living rooms and bars across the country to watch Super Bowl XLVI.  Some will root for Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (if he’s able to play), Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots.  Some will root for Eli Manning, Victor “Salsa” Cruz, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Giants.  Many will be more interested in the Super Bowl commercials or Madonna’s halftime show.

Regardless of which team you’re cheering for, much of the most fervent rooting will have little to do with which team is actually winning the game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.  For many viewers participating in a Super Bowl squares contest organized by friends, co-workers, or the local watering hole provides more entertainment than the game itself.

There are many variations on Super Bowl squares contests, but they all start with a 10-by-10 grid featuring the numbers zero through nine along both the horizontal and vertical axes.  One axis is chosen to represent each of the teams playing, and in the simplest form of the squares game, participants pay a flat fee that buys them one randomly-assigned square on the grid.  At the end of each quarter and the end of the game the winning square is determined by the last digit in each team’s score at that point in the game. 

For example, suppose the contest organizer designates the horizontal axis to represent the Giants’ score and the vertical axis to represent the Patriots’ score.  Then, if the Patriots are leading 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, the person assigned to the (7,0) square would win a predetermined dollar amount or percentage of the total money raised by the selling of squares.

Even though the squares may be assigned randomly to participants, the history of the first forty-five Super Bowls has shown that not all squares on the grid are created equal.  Here’s a mapping of the 180 quarter-ending scores; I’ve randomly assigned the horizontal axis to the visiting team and the vertical axis to the home team in each of the previous games:

Before converting this to a table of probabilities by square, it’s helpful to realize that assigning teams to the horizontal or vertical axis is an arbitrary exercise, so there’s no reason to believe that the probability of winning with square (0,3) should be any different than the probability of winning with square (3,0), even if that hasn’t been the case with the empirical data.  So, instead of using the 11 empirical “hits” with square (3,0) and the 6 empirical hits with square (0,3), it makes more sense to calculate square probabilities as though both squares had hit 8.5 times.

Once that adjustment is made, here’s what the table of square probabilities based on historical results looks like:

Note:  Blank squares have no “hits” during the first 45 Super Bowls.

Several observations:

• The top 13 square probabilities account for over 50% of the winning squares (53.9%).

• Almost half of the squares (46) have never been winners.

• In reality the blank squares in the table above have a non-zero probability of being winners.  A larger sample-size would be needed to estimate these probabilities, but keep in mind that the NFL didn’t adopt the two-point conversion until 1994.

Enjoy the game!

The Sherpa

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After a recent experts’ mock draft for a fantasy football magazine, all of the participants (including the Sherpa) were invited to describe their approach to a fantasy football draft.  Here’s the gist of my response (with some extra thoughts included, since I’m not subject to a word count here, just your patience/willingness to read further!):

I’ll generally take Running Backs (RBs) with my first two picks so that I can avoid Running Back by Committee (RBBC) situations.  With more and more teams relying on RBBC, that gives you even more incentive to grab as many RBs not involved in a timeshare as you possibly can early in your draft.  Next, I’ll usually grab the two best available Wide Receivers (WRs) and fill any FLEX spots or remaining RB and WR spots, then start looking at Quarterbacks (QBs).  However, depending on roster requirements, I’d still consider taking backups at RB and WR before selecting my first QB.

I’ll almost always pick my starting QB and all my backups at QB, RB,  and WR before taking my Tight End (TE), Defense (DEF), and Kicker (K).  Fantasy scoring is almost totally random for Ks, and only slightly less so for DEFs; those roster spots should generally be filled last.  Finally, when selecting reserves, I tend to favor unproven players with high ceilings over steady but unspectacular veterans (think Chris Henry (Bengals’ version) vs. Antwaan Randle El).

I’m a huge believer in position scarcity, the relative drop-off in fantasy value between the top-rated and mediocre options at each position.  QBs score the most fantasy points in many scoring formats, so some might be tempted to take a Drew Brees or a Peyton Manning (or a Tom Brady in 2008) with an early pick.  However, given that the drop-offs are much steeper at RB and WR than at QB, unless you have a highly unusually scoring system it doesn’t make sense to take a QB until after you’ve filled all your starting RB and WR spots.  Don’t waste Bench spots on TEs, Ks, and DEFs - you can almost always find a serviceable alternative in the free agent pool when you need one due to an injury or a bye week.  You’re much better off using those Bench spots on RBs and WRs - you can never have too much depth at those two positions!

Hopefully, I’ll be able to stick to this philosophy during tonight’s experts’ draft at 8pm on Mock Draft Central - we’ll see what happens!

Of course, the most important part of preparing for any fantasy football draft is to make sure that the player rankings you’re using reflect all the unique characteristics of your league.  If the player rankings don’t reflect your league’s # teams, roster requirements, scoring categories, and point values exactly, then you’re potentially putting yourself at a huge disadvantage heading into your draft.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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Most team owners’ fantasy football roster changes after Week 1 fall into one of two categories:  (1) moves necessitated by injuries, and (2) reactions to players’ disappointing performances.  If you owned Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Marques Colston, Maurice Morris, etc., you probably need to make a roster move this week.  However, if you own Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, Carson Palmer, Chris Perry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco, Peyton Manning, Braylon Edwards, etc., don’t let their disappointing performances in Week 1 tempt you to do something rash (i.e. - trading them for below-market value) or dumb (i.e. - dropping them).

If Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez goes 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on baseball’s Opening Day, their fantasy owners would be disappointed, if not upset, but would realize that it’s just one game out of 162.  However, with football teams having just 10% of the number of games their baseball brethern do, every game’s results are magnified - both for better or for worse.

On the other hand, don’t get too giddy if some of your players exceeded expectations during Week 1.  Does anyone really believe that Eddie Royal and Dante Rosario will be among the league leaders at their respective positions at the end of the season?  Me neither.  Put another way, if someone offers you Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson for Michael Turner this week, or Braylon Edwards for Matt Jones, or Peyton Manning for Donovan McNabb, quickly accept the deal before the other owner has a chance to change their mind!

Reversing the roles for a minute, if you are the owner of Matt Ryan, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, etc., see what other team owners in your league would be willing to give up to obtain these Week 1 wonders.  You may be surprised.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Since Wednesday is often the day that fantasy football leagues process their free agent/waiver wire claims, today I’ll focus on some potentially useful players who may be available in your league.  Many team owners are wondering where to turn after injuries to Tom Brady, Nate Burleson, Maurice Morris, Marques Colston, Darren McFadden, and others - the Sherpa is here to help!

Quarterback

Amazingly, Jon Kitna and Kurt Warner are still available in a number of leagues.  I’d describe them as the “anti-Roethlisbergers” - they’re more useful to a fantasy team than they are to NFL teams (imagine if you were penalized even more for interceptions/fumbles in key situations in your fantasy league!)  If either happens to be available in your league this week, he’s definitely worth a pick-up (especially if you were a Tom Brady owner).  I doubt you’d find any other QBs available this week who are capable of throwing for 3,500+ yards and 30+ TDs!  If Kitna and Warner are already taken in your league, other widely-available options include Trent Edwards, Matt Ryan, and JaMarcus Russell.  I’d take a chance on Matt Cassel only if the previous options were all unavailable.  I’d steer clear of Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Running Back

Depending on the number of teams and bench spots your league uses, the pickings could be pretty slim here.  In the unlikely event Justin Fargas or Julius Jones are available in your league, they’re definitely worth a claim.  Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson is also likely unavailable in your league.  More likely options include Sammy Morris, Steve Slaton, Tim Hightower, Pierre Thomas, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Jackson, and Leon Washington.

Wide Receiver

Rookies Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson both had impressive debuts this past weekend.  With Brandon Marshall returning this week for Denver, I think it’s highly unlikely Royal will approach his Week 1 stats anytime soon again.  However, I do like Jackson’s potential to continue posting impressive stats throughout his rookie season.  Royal becomes more attractive than he would be otherwise in leagues that give individual players Kickoff Return yardage, but I still prefer Jackson.  With Marques Colston out for an estimated 4-6 weeks, see if any of the Saints’ WRs are available (David Patten, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, in that order).  Kevin Walter, Matt Jones, Devard Darling, and Courtney Taylor are some other potentially useful WRs who may be available in your league this week.

Tight Ends

I like Anthony Fasano, Chris Baker, and Marcedes Lewis more than I like Dante Rosario.

Kickers

Unless you had Mike Nugent on your team, you probably aren’t (and shouldn’t be) looking for a replacement based on just one game.  However, if you did have Nugent on your team (or don’t wish to heed my previous advice), Jason Hanson, Steve Suisham, John Carney, Matt Bryant, and Matt Stover would be my recommended options based on their teams’ matchups this week.

Defenses

As with the Kickers I wouldn’t be looking to make any changes here after one week (even if you own the Rams’ defense!).  If you like to switch Defenses from week to week based on matchups, some Defenses that may be available whose matchups I like this week include Arizona (vs Miami), Carolina (vs Chicago), Detroit (vs Green Bay), Houston (vs. Baltimore), Oakland (at Kansas City), and Kansas City (versus Oakland - yes, I don’t expect much offense in this game!).

Good luck with your claims!

The Sherpa

So, the unthinkable has happened.  You spent an early pick (almost assuredly a first-rounder) on Tom Brady, only to see him go down for the season just 21 minutes into the Patriots’ opener.  Now what?

If you’re a Brady owner, it may be tempting to write off the whole season already, but that would be a mistake.  While his absence from your lineup creates a hole that may seem impossible to climb out from, it’s definitely worth the effort.   At this point you basically have 3 options:

1. Pick up Matt Cassel (almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire, unless your league is incredibly deep or has a “team QB” rule).
2. Pick up a QB from another team off the waiver wire.
3. Make a trade with another team in your league for a starting QB.

Let’s briefly examine each of these 3 options.  While Matt Cassel will have a full week to practice with the first team in preparation for the Pats’ road game next Sunday against the Jets, keep in mind that he hasn’t been a starting QB since high school (he backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert at USC)!  You may recall that Brad Johnson was in a similar situation when he first came to the NFL (he’d backed up Charlie Ward at Florida State), and he went on to quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory (notice that I used the word “quarterback” rather than “lead” - the Bucs’ defense was definitely the key to their championship).  Still, it’s unrealistic to expect Cassel to throw for 300+ yards and several TDs on a consistent basis, which is the production you were probably banking on from Brady if you took him with your first pick.   Overall, this is probably not your best option.

Which other QBs available on the waiver wire may be able to help your team, at least in the short run?  Depending on how many teams are in your league, and how many QBs you’re required to start, some of the starting QBs who may be available include Kurt Warner (Ari), Matt Ryan (Atl), Joe Flacco (Bal), Kyle Orton (Chi), Tarvaris Jackson (Min), JaMarcus Russell (Oak), Marc Bulger (StL), J.T. O`Sullivan (SF), and Jeff Garcia (TB).  Warner, Bulger, and Garcia have all had past success, and I would rank them in that order in terms of their likelihood to put up decent fantasy stats this season.  Orton and Jackson both have previous starting experience, but not much apparent upside - I don’t consider either of them a desirable fantasy option for this season.  Russell and Ryan are both intriguing prospects from big-time college programs and have significant upside.  Flacco and O`Sullivan probably have lower ceilings than the previous pair and can be safely ignored unless there are no other options.

Third, there’s the trade route.  Of course, your leaguemates know you’re in dire straits, and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to get fair value under the current conditions.  Your goal is to sell high on a player you think exceeded expectations in Week 1 for an undervalued QB that a leaguemate feels exceeded his expections during Week 1.  If you took Michael Turner, Willie Parker, or Reggie Bush as a 2nd (or even 3rd) Running Back, you are the lucky owner of a great bargaining chip.  QBs you may be able to pry loose from their owners using these RBs as bait include Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme, both of whom I believe will exceed most people’s expectations this season (hopefully, including their current owners’!).

A quick note on a related topic.  Under almost any scoring format imagineable, it hardly ever makes sense to take a quarterback with your first pick in a fantasy football draft, even if it is Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Tony Romo.  While there are a handful of QBs that appear to be a cut above the rest going into each season, there’s usually a much smaller gap between the top-scoring QBs and the mediocre QBs than there is between the top scorers and middle of the pack contributors at both running back and wide receiver (the idea of position scarcity).  Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson or Randy Moss could also suffer a season-ending injury in Week 1, but each season there are running backs and wide receivers passed over in fantasy drafts who go on to become top fantasy contributors that season (last year’s examples included Justin Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Roddy White, and Dwayne Bowe).  While it’s possible for this to happen at quarterback (Derek Anderson and Tony Romo are two recent examples), it’s much less likely.

I’ve also seen some instances where fantasy teams will draft just one QB and enter the season without a backup.  Unless you’re playing in a league with 12 or fewer teams where nobody takes a backup, this is just a recipe for disaster.  No matter how great/seemingly indestructable your starting QB appears to be (Brett Favre owners, listen up!), it always makes sense to have a contingency plan in case the unimagineable becomes the reality, as it did yesterday for Tom Brady owners.

Until next time,

The Sherpa